Overwriting database with backup from older Drupal version? I have a database from a live site I need to bring over to a development site. 

live site = d7.7, outdated modules, but is obviously up to date with all the recent ubercart orders

dev site = d7.15, all modules updated, but is missing the latest ubercart orders

I had been migrating the live DB over to the dev site periodically, but now that the dev site is running newer modules and core, I'm wondering if its still safe to move migrate the database from the live 7.7 site.

can I migrate the database and simply run update.php afterward to catch up?

ubercart orders are really the only thing im concerned about. also, ubercart is one of the modules that has been updated on the dev site.

Complete list of modules that have been updated on the DEV site. Some of these required the running of update.php

Drush
CTools
Ubercart
Views
Entity
Token
Securepages
Rules
Admin Menu
Node Export
UUID
Pathauto
Gallery formatter
Twitter Pull
Yes - in most cases, this should be a fairly straightforward operation. You should be able to migrate your updated modules from dev over to the live site and just run update to get everything running again. If there are going to be issues with this (for ex. a module that requires a little more configuration to get working), you can isolate these issues before-hand on your dev server (and it sounds like you've already done this successfully).

Most of the top contrib modules (ex. the ones you cite above) will be very careful at upgrading their structure without impacting any new data (or orders).