What economics/finance methods and tools can be used to analyze and predict the Bitcoin market? Bitcoin differs from standard markets in many ways. Some standard market analysis tools are inapplicable due to unique features of Bitcoin. Hence the question

What methods/tools can used to analyze and predict the Bitcoin market?

It is better if the tools have a proven trackrecord of actually working for predicting the Bitcoin market, but it is unlikely that such examples exist. Therefore, I am perfectly happy with references to the literature on econ/finance tools that should work for the bitcoin market but maybe haven't been applied yet.
Related questions
Is there a correlation between Technical Analysis predictions and actual prices?
Can bitcoin transaction data be used to study markets?
Technical analysis is important, but right now I think that one should not rely exclusively on chart analysis and indicators to predict Bitcoin's price movement. For example, at the end of July and mid-August some indicators, such as MACD or RSI, clearly showed a trend inversion that did not happen.

One of Bitcoin's unique features is the mining system and I think that, right now, this plays an important role in price analysis. After Bitcoin hit $30 in July, many people invested in mining rigs and difficulty rose a lot. Those people are looking forward to get their investment back and, since Bitcoin is extremely infalctionary right now (50 new coins every 10 minutes), there is a big selling force at the markets.
If miners sell 30 coins out of each block, we need around 1 million dollars per month to keep the price at $5. 

I also believe that the $30 spike was caused by media exposure. Such a small market can be easily manipulated by a few serious investors.

Main points:


Use Technical Analysis carefully.
Consider the number of coins per block and the money invested by miners
Keep an eye for important news that may attract new investors to the market 


To finish, here is one stock behaviour that I could identify: the dead cat bounce. 


  A dead cat bounce is a trading term used to define when a stock in a
  severe decline has a sharp bounce off the lows.