What is the estimated USD fee price in BTC when Bitcoin is worth 1 million dollars in the future? Currently, fees in Bitcoin are quite high ($1-$30) to move anything under $50 USD. If Bitcoin is worth 1 million dollars one day, how much would an on-chain fee be? Assuming blocks are going to be full of course. Will there ever be a block size increase to solve this scalability problem? Supposedly, lightning network solves it, but fees there would also be high, no? What are some proposed solutions to this problem that work on Bitcoin layer 1?
I think no one can read the future but some things can be said with high confidence and I will try to point them out.
First I think it the conversion to USD does at best make sense for cosmetics thus I will do most computations in the more natural form of satoshis and confirm only at the end if necessary.
if the average feerate in a block is x sat/Byte and with 1 MB blocks we will have a total fee of x Million satoshi per block. This is equivalent to x * 0.01 BTC.
Assuming 2500 tx per block we would end up having
x * 4,000 sats per transaction. (I guess with taproot, schnoor and signature aggregation we could stuff in a few more tx.)
as 1 sat / byte is the absolute minimum fee these 4,000 sats would at a 1 million usd / BTC boil down to $40 per transaction which would have to be multiplied by the feerate x which is any number larger or equal to 1.
I see it from the perspective of Lightning Network rather than from the perspective of making on chain payments. It seems like a reasonable fee to open your channels and be able to transact as often and frequently as you wish. As far as I know it is currently not clear how fees on the Lightning Network would evolve.