Probablity that a Bitcoin has been Lost I am building some new metrics to better understand the Bitcoin economy and one that seems to be useful is a probabilistic notion that a Bitcoin has been lost. I'm aware of the bitcoin days destroyed, but has anyone done any modeling to gain a sense if a Bitcoin has been destroyed as a result of a lost key or a transaction to a bad address?
There is no way to determine (that I can imagine) the number of lost private keys, you would have to make a guess that after x years without movement the private key is lost but that would just be a guess.