Matsui's paper on linear cryptanalysis - unexplained formula in Lemma 2 How does he end up with this result in his article ?
This is a type of "Gaussian approximation", assuming the wrong key randomization hypothesis, and given the bias $|p-1/2|$, the success probability depends on the order statistics of the "sample bias" of the various subkey bit guesses. 

Let $T_i$ be the number of times the linear approximation is satisfied by subkey guess $k_i,$ and $$Y_i=|(T_i/N)-1/2|,$$ is the sample bias corresponding to this subkey guess ($N$ is the number of plaintext/ciphertext-pairs). Let $k_0$ be the right key guess and let there be $2^m$ subkey values possible, say from $0$ to $2^m-1$.

Then linear cryptanalysis is successful if and only if
$$Y_0&gt;Y_i,\quad 1\leq i\leq 2^m-1.$$

This probability is then estimated via a gaussian approximation.

The paper "On Probability of Success in Linear and Differential Cryptanalysis", from the Journal of Cryptology, by A. A. Selcuk available here goes over this in detail.