How probable is is that earth magnetic field will change 180 degrees at once? Today the Earth's magnetic field is moving a little bit. But is there going to be a point where the field suddenly radically changes direction? If so what is the cause of that? If not, then is the field changing all the time gradually?
The magnetic north pole (and presumably the south pole) currently moves around 40km/year, although within a year it loops around, may travel much further than that forwards and backwards. Here is a map of the movement from the past century and a half (source)
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However, during a magnetic reversal, the pole may move up to 10 times faster than that, over a period of less than 100 years. Here's a map showing the relative movements (the numbers are thousands of years ago (kya)) (source)

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The reason for reversals aren't very well understood (according to the previous link), and I'm in no way an expert in the field, but just for some fun speculation, I would wonder whether reversals might be related to this phenomenon. Obviously a liquid outer core is going to operate differently from a screwdriver, but the two systems both appear to be exhibiting a bistable rotation while floating in space.