Electrical Circuit for Detached Shed 200 ft
Yes, you can run a single branch circuit to a structure

Considering you only need a single branch circuit there, you can run a single branch circuit out to your shed with say 10AWG for hot/neutral/ground, or hot/hot/neutral/ground if you want to run a multi-wire branch circuit.  The exception to 250.32(A) means you won't need a ground rod at the shed as the equipment grounding conductor to the main structure is a sufficient grounding means for a single branch circuit.

You'll need a disconnecting means at the shed to satisfy 225.31; however, this can be a simple light switch in a weatherproof box or just inside the shed, nothing fancier is needed for a single branch circuit.  You'll want the receptacle to be GFCI-protected, by the way, due to the fact this is an unfinished space.

However, I'd trench in a fat conduit anyway

Renting a trencher for the day isn't cheap.  Schedule 80 PVC is, even in say 2 or 3" diameter.  This means that while you're digging, you might as well put in a fat PVC conduit to the shed even if you're only running a few 10AWG THHNs in it, instead of using a direct bury cable, as the conduit will make expansion way easier.  Besides, Schedule 80 is going to hold up to an inadvertent excavator encounter better than a UF cable anyhow.