MongoDB Tag-Aware Sharding Workflow
It depends from the distribution of your inserts if moves going to occur and how many.

1) you start with one chunk {minkey,maxkey} which lives on primary (lets say shard000)

2) as you insert data a split will occur. Might be 

2.1) {minkey, US} {US,maxkey} -> moves the second chunk to shar001

2.2) {minkey, TR} {TR,maxkey} -> moves first chunk to shard001

2.3) {minkey,OTHER} {OTHER,maxkey} -> moves second shard to shard002

3) I cant analyze all paths but for 2.1)

{US,maxkey} is unmovable and all the chunks come from it as well

{minkey, US} depends if it going to move according to the next split

....