Where can I find some guidance on index strategies?
Short

The "too many indexes" rule is a bit misleading I think.

Long

Given that the average database is around 98% reads (or higher) reads need to be optimised. An INSERT is a read if there is a unique index, for example. Or the WHERE on an update. I once read that even a write intensive database is still 85% reads.

What you do have is poor quality indexing. Examples:


wide clustered indexes (SQL Server especially)
non-monotonic clustered indexed
overlapping indexes (eg cold, cole and cold, cole, colf)
many single column indexes (also overlapping with more useful indexes) that are useless for your queries
no INCLUDEs, not covering (eg all single column indexes)
...


Note it's quite typical to have indexes several times bigger than your actual data even in OLTP systems.

Generally, I'd start with the


clustered index (usually PK)
unique indexes (not constraints, these can't be covering)
foreign key columns


Then I'd look at:


common queries and see what I need. A query running every seconds needs tuning. The report at Sunday 4am can wait.
with SQL Server, the weighted missing index DMVs


Saying that, I have broken these rules for some systems after seeing how things panned out (10 billion rows later) to tune a system. But I'd never consider not indexing unless I could demonstrate why I'm doing so.