Communication complexity for deciding associativity
There are $n^{n^2}$ binary operations on $S$. The question is how many of them are associative. Kleitman, Rothschild and Spencer give an asymptotic counting formula for this problem in their paper The number of semigroups of order $n$. It has a relatively simple form in what they call the "non-rare instances" where the peak of $f(t)$ dominates so the other terms can be neglected without affecting the asymptotics. You should be able to give a lower bound for your question by cranking through the math with this formula.