Number of Hamiltonian cycles on random graphs
As Yuval said, Q1 is easy to answer using linearity of expectation (spoiler: $(n-1)!p^n$) . I don't know the exact answer to Q2, but it might be good enough if you know it's very low: for the range of $p$ where there is at least one cycle, it holds that $P[\text{there is more than one cycle} | \text{there is at least one cycle}]&gt;1-1/n^{\log n}$ or so. In other words, once there is one cycle, there are many. The reason is that once there is one cycle, there are around $n^2$ ways to create another cycle from it by exchanging two edges of the cycle by the two "crossing" edges (this is called a "2-flip" or something in some of the relevant literature). For any pair of edges, the chance you can do that is $p^2$. So for all of these to fail, the chance is $(1-p^2)^{n^2}$ which is roughly $e^{-(pn)^2}$, which is pretty tiny.