Hitting probability of random walk within given number of steps
For every point $(a,b)$ and number of steps $t \leq k$, compute inductively (i.e., using dynamic programming) the probability of reaching $(a,b) \neq (x,y)$ in $t$ steps without hitting $(x,y)$. Given this information, you can easily compute the probability of hitting $(x,y)$ in at most $k$ steps.