Reachability queries on uncertain graphs
I edited your question to make it self-contained.

The literature on uncertain graphs is really rich for this problem. What you are looking for is "reachability in uncertain graphs", which has been studied extensively in database community [1].

Basically, you have an edge between two vertices $u$ and $v$ with probability $p_{uv} \in (0,1]$. You need to find whether two given vertices are reachable, therefore, lie in the same connected component or disjoint set. I suggest you take a look at the following paper as starting point, which describes the basics and can lead you to more works that have been done on this problem:

[1] Jin, Ruoming, et al. "Distance-constraint reachability computation in uncertain graphs." Proceedings of the VLDB Endowment 4.9 (2011): 551-562.