inner tube width range relative to tire width: reliability effects?
If you're getting flats regularly, my guess is that its not the tube's fault, but you to need to make sure that you have sufficient tire pressure and switch to puncture-belted tires (e.g. Schwalbe Marathon). A tube is just a balloon, and you can often put a tube marketed for a not too different size tire into one which slightly different without problems (so long as you don't have the extra width bunch up; e.g. don't put a 29x2.5 tube in a 700x18 tire; I normally do this with 700x23 marketed tubes in a 700x28 tire without problems). Just like most balloons, even the smallest prick will deflate it, so you really need to protect the debris from getting to the tube in the first place. The thickness difference between the rubber in the bigger and smaller tubes will likely be too small to make a difference. And in this case, since the tube is designed to work for tires of your size in both cases, you should expect to have perfectly acceptable behavior with both sides (that is, dumb luck should determine which works better). 

Empirically, if anything, the brand of tube might have a slight effect. I've had bad luck with tube reliability from one manufacturer in particular, so I don't buy their tubes anymore.

If you're really paranoid, they make tubes which have extra thick rubber called puncture resistant tubes (useful if you have goatheads) and you can fill your tube with tire sealant (Slime). These will be more resilient to punctures compared to other tubes, but they are more expensive and Slime is messy. But I'd start with some puncture resistant tires. In short, if you don't have these speciality tubes, its likely the case that it doesn't matter which tube you have. 

I'd suggest avoiding using tire liners, since they can actually increase flats unless you're really not in good shape. A puncture belted tire is a better idea for most people.