The probability of block generation by two miners in a special case?
In your example the two pools have very similar hash power, so for simplicity let's assume they are both exactly 50%.  The difference between 49%, 50%, and 51% will not significantly affect  the answers.

The probability that the first pool finds at least one block in 10 minutes is roughly 1 - exp(-1/2), about 39%, and the same for the second pool.  The two pools operate independently, so the probability that both events happen is simply the product of their probabilities, i.e. (1 - exp(-1/2))^2, which is about 15.5%.  By symmetry, it's about equally likely for either pool to find the first block.  So the probability that this happens and moreover Pool 1 finds the first block, is half of this: 7.75%.