Which is harder to contract - HIV or AIDS?
Your question depends hugely on the factors at play.


The rate of transmission depends on the route of infection.  Wikipedia has a good breakdown showing the wide variability.  Are they getting a blood transfusion?  90%.  Mother-to-infant?  25%.  Male-to-female vaginal sex?  No higher than 0.3%.  Not to mention that the incidence varies massively between countries, as does the most common route of infection.
The rate of progression to AIDS also depends on a large number of factors including age, viral load, various genotypes, access to medical treatment, and, of course, long-term nonprogressor (LTNP) status.


The incidence of LTNPs is around 1 in 500, or 0.2%, which overlaps with but is at the low end of transmission rates for some routes of infection.