Are there natural selection experiments that quantitatively agree with theoretical modeling?
I think the closest example to this is Greg Lang's work at Princeton. His work will take a population of yeast and let it grow for 1000 generations. At each generation a sample will be kept allowing sequencing of the population at each generation.
His website is available here: http://www.genomics.princeton.edu/glang/

And some of his work has already been published here: http://www.genomics.princeton.edu/glang/papers.htm