How to determine whether the energy of a stem-loop fold is significant or not?
You can convert the $\Delta G$ values into equilibrium constants $K$ using the formula

$$ \Delta G = R T \ln K $$

This might help you understand what those energies roughly mean.

But the more important and also more difficult part is judging how good your predicted free energies actually are. I assume you used a secondary structure prediction program like Mfold to calculate this. They typically have a several parameters you can adjust like ion concentrations and temperature, you should make sure that you have some appropriate values here.

Without knowing anything more about your system or data I'd ignore the -0.3 kcal/mole result, the -4.9 kcal/mole structure could be formed, but I wouldn't regard this as certain.

Now, in the in vivo situation the whole thing gets far more complicated. The presence of RNA binding proteins, helicases and the generally rather complex environment in the cell makes it much harder to predict which secondary structures will actually form. 

If you wanted to know for sure you could e.g. do SHAPE experiments on your RNA. This is a technique that also works in vivo.