Different results for different orders of estimating AR model using Yule-Walker equations
Your true AR model is order 4. If an AR(16) model did a good job, then 12 of its parameters should be zero. Because of noise effects / overfitting, those 12 parameters are NOT zero and, more than likely, the other matching parameters will be more inaccurate because of this. Hence the error in an AR(16) will be larger than that for an AR(4) fit.