Submission to arXiv of PAMS submitted paper
Only the first option (the default) is no less restrictive than CC BY-NC-ND.  You can always choose it, but you cannot choose the others unless you get special permission from the AMS.  I have no idea whether they would grant such permission, but it can't hurt to ask if you care.

However, it doesn't matter which licenses are listed as options, since you are by no means limited to these choices.  This list just consists of options the arXiv offers you with one click, but you can add a footnote to your paper specifying whichever license you like.  In particular, if you want to use a CC BY-NC-ND license, then you can do so despite the fact that the arXiv's list doesn't include it.  (You also have to choose one of their options, presumably the default, but that's not a problem.  If a paper is available under two licenses, then users can choose to use either license to justify their use of it.)