"Be a small fish in a sea, or a big one in a pond"
Apply for, and fully investigate, all such possibilities. But I would go even farther: 3 places is not nearly enough to apply to, especially if you are interested primarily in tenured track positions. 

Deciding which job you want to take before you've actually been offered one is perfectly natural, and is a perfectly terrible practice! It so often leads to disappointment, missed opportunities, and general dissatisfaction. 

Now would be the time to expand your horizons! Find new institutions you might like and apply to them; put the word out about your availability through advisors, fellow researchers, friends of friends in academia, etc. 

The chance of getting any one position is terribly unflattering, regardless of your background or standing. If you can find a dozen places that you'd be happy to go to work - relative preferences for one over the other not withstanding - then your chance of getting something you want improves remarkably. Don't put yourself in the position of being disappointed because you had to "settle for your last choice", instead of "winning one of your top 3 picks" just because you didn't look into more possibilities. (This is advice I have to give myself over, and over, and over again.)