risk of shifting to online learning permanently
Well, based on the 3 institutions I have close contact with, their attempts in the past few weeks hardly represent a shining example of hugely successful online learning! It feels more like the Keystone Kops!

That bit of snark out of the way, effective teaching in the online/MOOC/e-channel, etc. is not easy, and making the transition between a face to face course and an effective online course requires a lot of thought and a lot of design a prep, which of course no-one has has time to do this time around. So my snark was not meant as a true criticism, but at the same time, it means that mainstream universities' efforts in the balance of this semester are themselves unlikely to make anyone -- teachers or learners -- say, "hey, that went really well; let's dispense with classroom instruction altogether".

That being said, I do think this will strongly accelerate the shift towards e-learning in the medium- and long-term, and that in 2 ways.


In the long term, this will make e-learning a much more mainstream offering that students and faculty will become more comfortable exploring and integrating into the curriculum. Forced immersion brings familiarity and less fear. Up to now, in North America at least, we tended to have old-school in-person institutions, a few more e-learning focused disruptor institutions, and a select few dabbling in MOOCs layered on top of their usual approach. There was a lot of mutual mistrust. That will lessen. And just like a greater degree of teleworking throughout the economy, with the Pandora's box on it opened, will persist past current social isolation, so will demand for -- and willingness of faculty to explore -- e-learning.
Next year, there will be a lot of financially and emotionally wounded students, whose life plan took a pretty big hit. Some will be keen and able to return to their university campuses and continue as before. Some won't be, and when they get their affairs in order a few years later, in a world that will have lived through months of forced virtual work and socialization, they will probably be keener to explore online offerings than they were previously. And the more they start work somewhere and become mature learners, or the more straitened their financial circumstances become, the more they will seek out good-value-for-money education with schedule and geographic flexibility, and the less they'll be keen to return and pay for the conventional on-campus student experience. Of course that won't apply to all, but I suspect to enough that it will make a difference at the macro level.