Research on career path after tenure denial?
In the German academic system, assistant professor positions were introduced only in 2002. Recently, there have been studies evaluating how well these positions have been established, and how it affects the career paths of junior researchers. One example is a project by the Center for Higher Education (CHE), which is described here (in German unfortunately): http://www.che.de/cms/?getObject=260&amp;PK_Projekt=1292&amp;strAction=show. Scrolling down to publications shows references to articles where data from this study have been published (again only in German).

One difficulty in interpreting this data with respect to your question is that tenure track positions are rare in Germany (an estimate I remember, but don't have a reference for now, is that 10 % of assistant professor positions are tenure track). On the one hand, that means that "being denied tenure" is almost the norm for these positions. On the other hand, it's also possible that professors become tenured even though they haven't been on a formally tenure track position.

Also, the statistical population for this study are persons who have been assistant professors in the past, not only those who have been denied tenure. Thus, the study does not give directly the percentages for all the positions in your question, and some data (e.g. field of study) was not collected or published, but still, the results can be used to estimate some of these percentages. So let's get to the key conclusions that can be drawn:


For 1., 85 % of former assistant professors have a tenured professor position now (either through tenure track or at another institution)
For 2., 6 % of all former assistant professors have a non-tenured academic position
Summarizing 3. - 5., 9 % have a position outside academia.