How to weigh these pros and cons of applying to PhD programs?
My advice is do a serious job search now of salaries and do a rough "expected value" calculation of how much more money you would make with a PhD compared to without one. Perhaps even ask any contacts you have about this. Then you can see if that amount is worth it to spend four years doing a PhD and the possible better job you might get with one, if it would indeed be better. Money is actually pretty important, so it's a good idea you have an actual figure in mind, even if it is a rough estimate.

My next recommendation is to expand your school applications if you do go for a PhD. If it's enjoyment of research that you're after, the top schools won't necessarily get you a better experience. You'll do better at a less stressful school based on your mental makeup. I did not personally find a PhD very stressful and I think applying might actually be the most difficult part.

I'd also like to say that it's not really necessary to be extremely competitive to get a great career. Most people who will compete with you at all levels of education and career will just go on to do something so different from you that they won't even matter one year down the road.