Blinking LED on ATMEGA168. Error rc=-1. AVRDUDE
In your diagram you have pin 7 and 8 connected to VCC and GND respectively. 

You are missing connections pin 20 and 22 for AVCC and GND respectively. 

The way chips are powered internally is a crapshoot. Everything depends on how the internal die is set up and how power is actually routed. Even though these seem like "analog only" connections they do need powered and a decoupling capacitor even if not using the A to D converter. 

When the programmer talks to the chip it pulls and holds the reset line low and sends programming instructions. If the chip does not reply you get rc=-1 error. 

The two main causes of the chip not replying is wiring or oscillator problems. I'm assuming that you have a virgin chip and it is set to the internal oscillator. 

As far as the wiring goes all VCC and GND connections need made and decoupling capacitors need added to all. Note the black and two red wires on the right that your missing.  As @Naz pointed out also add a pullup to the RESET line. Here is the tutorial that the image came from.