BJT and early effect doubt
The chance is less because electrons &quot;flight time&quot; in the p region is short.
The base transit time is of minority carriers (electrons) in the base, at low current injection densities, is:
Tn = Wb ^ 2 / Dn

Where Wb is the base thickness and Dn is the electron diffusion constant.
Source (equation 5.22):
https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/engineering/base-transit-time