How to specify a Rules condition like 'Before creating new content'?
Try using Rules (System) event "Drupal is initializing" (= init), which is actually BEFORE your form is shown. If you still can't get it to work, you may have to add an extra condition (like the URL of such form?).

You may also want to look at my answer to the question "How to restrict access to a node via node/12 and allow access via a path like content/sometitle?". The sample there also includes such "Drupal is initializing".

However using a condition like path_has_alias will most likely NOT work either. Instead try replacing such condition with something similar to this Rules condition (in export format here):

{ "text_matches" : {
    "text" : [ "site:current-page:url" ],
    "match" : "node\/\\d+$",
    "operation" : "regex"
  }
}


In the above example, adapt the regular expression (= node\/\\d+$) to fit your URL naming for that form. In your case that regular expression should be something similar to node\/add\/manuscript-submission ...

To double check my own answer here (regex-stuff can be complicated ...), I created this prototype rule to get you going:

{ "rules_limit_access_url_node_add_something" : {
    "LABEL" : "Limit access URL node\/add\/*",
    "PLUGIN" : "reaction rule",
    "OWNER" : "rules",
    "REQUIRES" : [ "rules" ],
    "ON" : { "init" : [] },
    "IF" : [
      { "user_has_role" : {
          "account" : [ "site:current-user" ],
          "roles" : { "value" : { "3" : "3" } }
        }
      },
      { "OR" : [
          { "text_matches" : { "text" : [ "site:current-page:url" ], "match" : "node\/add\/book" } },
          { "text_matches" : {
              "text" : [ "site:current-page:url" ],
              "match" : "node\/add\/article",
              "operation" : "regex"
            }
          }
        ]
      }
    ],
    "DO" : [
      { "drupal_message" : {
          "message" : "Adding content for selected content types (such as for \u0022\u003Cstrong\u003E[site:current-page:path]\u003C\/strong\u003E\u0022) triggers some extra (Rules) logic, as you can see here.",
          "type" : "warning"
        }
      }
    ]
  }
}


Some more details to understand this proto-type (and make it work for your case also):


my 1st condition was just to have "some other condition" (in my case: applies for admins only), that's like the "data_is"-condition in your question (ignore my condition here for the rest).
my rules action in my prototype is just for (easy) debugging, and as a proof that my rule works as I expect it to work (use whatever action you see fit in your case).
the text_matches Rules condition is the most important part for you to look at. Actually, you'll need 1 such condition for each of your content type you want your rule to apply to. In my prototype I decided to have it apply to these 2 content types (whereas I used 2 different techniques you can pick from):


article : just using an exact text match
book: using an (extremely basic) regular expression (which you may want to take advantage of if you have multiple content types that you can group together in a single regular expression.

in case you didn't notice: be aware of the or part of the Rule condition also ...


I suggest you replace the path_has_alias condition with the applicable parts of my prototype rule above (i.e. the text_matches Rules conditions). Together with the "Drupal is initializing" (as in your edited version already), it should work.