Strategy for deploying Panels with features
We have very similar problems - not only with features but in other areas as well. The best solution we came up with so far is close to your second one:  

Drupal 6 &amp; 7 - Yin/Yang Multisite Staging
https://www.drupal.org/node/942540

So here you'd switch with the new DB version into the Staging system and use the Staging as the new Live version. But I don't feel too comfortable about this + it might not work everywhere if the two Servers are different.

In a way less complex evironment with small changes I'm doing the following: Every night the DB will be copied from Live to Dev. In this environment I'm sure I only have small changes in Dev which take usually minutes to an hour max. and I've got a fresh DB every day and can start from there.