Probabilistically fair prize splitting for two-player coin toss
R, 36 32 bytes



function(X,A,B)pbeta(.5,X-A,X-B)


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The closed formula from this answer suggested a natural probability distribution to use -- this is a Negative Binomial with \$X - W_b - 1\$ failures and \$X - W_a\$ successes, i.e., the probability that there are \$X - W_a\$ "successes" before there are \$X - W_b\$ "failures".

Further identities reduce the CDF of the negative binomial to the CDF of a beta distribution or in terms of the (regularized) incomplete beta function.