What are the statistical probabilities of commercial aircraft accidents?
Short answer

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) publishes each year a report about aircraft accidents in the world. The latest one indicates these average figures:


There are 3.3 billion passengers per year.
There are 100,000 flights per day.


Over the last four years the accident rate decreased from 94 to 73 accidents per year.

In 2014, among these 36,500,000 flights:


There has been a total of 73 accidents
12 accidents had fatalities (641 fatalities).




Extracts from IATA 2015 report


(Source: IATA report)

Period 2010-2014


(Source: IATA report)

Type and fatalities:


(Source: IATA report)

Geographical distribution:


(Source: IATA report)