Connecting Arduino and Processing, how do I know what COM to read?
Because the two numbers are completely different types of numbers.

The number 4 for COM4 means that it is the fourth serial communications port as defined by which I/O ports are used to communicate with the actual hardware. I.e. you'll have COM1, COM2, COM3 and so on. It doesn't matter if the hardware is actually there or anything is connected - the names are the same.

The number 2 in Serial.list()[2] means that you're selecting the third (!) element of the array returned by Serial.list(). I.e. in this case we're counting from 0 instead of 1.

In addition to that, Serial.list() only returns available ports. I.e. if the hardware for COM3 is not installed physically, it will not be returned by Serial.list(). Also the list is not guaranteed to be sorted in any specific order.

You'll want to print out the contents of the array returned by Serial.list() and let the user select which of the ports he wants to use.