why are there odd spikes in the USB serial data transfer rates?
While a serial port "kept busy" can potentially produce data with jitter comparable to its clock's jitter reduced by the number of clocks per word, a USB serial converter introduces a bunching of data into packets that is effectively entirely asynchronous.

As a result, once the data has gone through the USB, you really can't determine much of anything about the timing of its origin just by looking at the timing of its arrival.  That remains true even if you are claiming it via a serial-type API on the host, because the USB bus has already irreversibly de-synchronized it in transit.

A more meaningful experiment would be to timestamp the data at the source, ie, on the Arduino.  That could potentially be more regular, but if you use a high enough resolution timestamp, you will still find that it is irregular, as by default the Arduino's foreground thread of execution is periodically interrupted by the timer, which produces a brief delay.

If you are sending serial data into the Arduino or using other hardware peripherals, those may cause additional sporadic delay-inducing interrupts.