Flash "sketch" hex over ISP, without bootloader - possible?
You don't need the arduino bootloader on the chip, if you are programming it using ISP. 

It looks like BSD is no longer supported by avrdude. 

In the Arduino 1.5 IDE you can add programmers, so you can do the uploading right from the IDE, instead of 'stealing' the hex file and manually uploading from the command line.

If the chips are blank you probably need to change the fuses first.

You don't need a 16mhz crystal. The atmega328 has an internal 8mHz oscillator inside.