Pruning logs, burning the remains
Let's create a scenario. You have lots of log files to prune - some from January, February and March. You have, for whatever reason, way more than maxLogsToKeep. I can see a possibility that your routine would delete the February files and keep the January ones because you do not sort and you trust the order in which Dir returns the files. However, this may not be important to you.

Firstly, reference Microsoft Scripting Runtime in your VBA project. This gives you access to the FileSystemObject and related classes. This gives you more helper functions that will make the code easier to read and maintain (e.g. the File class allows you to access file information without additional reference to the file path; and a File.Delete). 

The only way around that scenario I noted is to sort. While the FSO has a Files collection, I don't see any additional functionality that allows you to sort the collection, so you can create your own collection (array in VBA for sorting) and sort that.

Some web references (links are now old - while the fundamentals stay the same the coding could take advantage of newer functionality in VBA):


https://forums.overclockers.com.au/threads/vba-retrieve-files-names-in-order.863553/
http://www.vb-helper.com/howto_dir_quicksorted.html
https://docs.microsoft.com/en-us/dotnet/visual-basic/programming-guide/language-features/arrays/
http://www.cpearson.com/excel/CollectionsAndDictionaries.htm


If I was writing this, then I would traverse the Files collection and build the Array (of File) as I went (the Files.Count will let you dimension the array properly in the first place) but perhaps a quick sort would be more efficient. After you have built the sorted array, you can traverse the array from the end until maxLogsToKeep and delete the files (File.Delete) (*).

Yes, a little more complicated, but addresses a scenario where you might retain ancient logs at the expense of more recent ones.

(*) I know I am working with an array rather than a For Each or other collection enumeration, but I now have a habit of working from the end when deleting things.