Can I use simulation to show that one bidding point count is more accurate than another?
Absolutely!

I believe Deep Finesse (100% free according to the web site) is the double dummy analyzer used by the A.C.B.L. for modern tournament to determine par scores on hand records. That would likely be your best choice for play analysis.

Yes, a double dummy analyzer is, to the best of my knowledge and understanding, the best technology available for hand analysis. It is imperfect, but world-class players rarely miss a line of play that can be deduced from the available information.

However, before you jump in, you are not the first, by a long shot, in this pool. I would recommend researching the attempts already made along this line. One other such is:

Two thirds the total obtained from:


A = 5;  
K = 4;  
Q = 3;
J = 2;
T = 1;


with fractions of 1/3 and 2/3 rounded down and up respectively.

Other factors to consider including:


assess distribution in both NT (hand shape) and trump (fit &amp; ruffing potential) contracts differently;
adjusting for suit quality;
traditional (uniform) approaches miss that Aces and Kings are overvalued in NT contracts and off-suit quacks and tens are overvalued in suit contracts.