French Tarot (card game): Feasibility of playing a King on the first hand
Tarot is not poker. It is not a matter of probability and psychology, wishing that your opponent will bend over you. It is matter of card strength and strategy.

Do not play randomly your King (and its 4.5 points!) if you do not know if your opponent have cards of the same suit or not. It is far too risky for such a card. It is like playing the 1 of trumps randomly, wishing that your opponent will not have the trump card to take it. Play your King only if you are sure that your opponent will not take it. Kings have got too much points to be played randomly, because statistics say that it will likely win.

The only risk you can take is the following: Attackers often perform "coupes franches" (I do not know the English name) on one suit only. If this suit is revealed and if your King does not belong to this suit, the attacker will likely not be able to double it and will not take it.

If you love statistics, Wikipedia has got tables for this : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_tarot#Strategy But just like I said before, tarot is not poker and statistics does not matter in this game.