Are the Germans' winning chances in Afrika Korps concentrated in 1941?
To quote from John Lockwood's excellent article Afrika Korps Theory (Avalon Hill GENERAL, Sep/Oct 1980, Vol. 17 #3):


  Once November [1941] rolls around, most British players breathe a big
  sigh of relief, thinking that the game is won. Although the British
  receive a big boost in their force position and may even outnumber the
  Germans on the board, the advantage is not entirely in he British
  favor. For one thing the supply table from December 1941 until the end
  of the game is highly favourable to the Germans. As illustrated earlier
  they will be enabled to maintain a constant attack for as many as 75%
  of the remaining turns. Coupled with their ten factors of replacements
  this bodes ill for the British if they are backed up too close to their
  home base. ....


The middle game in Afrika Korps can be regarded as beginning once Tobruk has been invested by the Germans; the end game once Alexandria has likewise been invested, or nearly so. However just as in Go, the endgame can be quite lengthy. It is an endgame because the strategic positional phase portion of the game has completed, and only tactically significant positional considerations remain. In a game between two strong players this slugging match at Alexandria and then Tobruk (usually) will decide the match, according to the small advantages each has managed to accumulate in getting there. This rarely starts before November 1941 for two strong players.