Am I analyzing the following hand properly?
Only if West has the Club 10. Ducking the first trick makes the location of the Club ten irrelevant (as witness that one ducks it by playing the Club 9 under the King).

So in one sense yes, declarer might be able to recover at trick 2; but declarer is guaranteed to make the contract by ducking trick one. (I guess unless West was dealt 8 clubs.)

You would probably enjoy There must be a Way by Andrew Diosy.



This hand also is interesting from an opening lead perspective. When I was learning Bridge I memorized the opening lead charts that were so popular at the time, which was good, but inferred from the ordering a false preference. These charts correctly identify which card to lead from various holdings, but make no comment on which suit to lead. It took me a while to unlearn that bad habit.

So now look at poor West's opening problem against a Texas Transfer auction to 4S:

S: 64
H: KQ83
D: J85
C: KQT4


That Club lead looks so safe from that strong honour holding, but is one of only two suit choices that allows declarer to make the contract. Perhaps West should think more about the bidding and less about those glossy Opening Lead Charts.

The odds are high that South has at least one of the outstanding honours in both round suits, so those honour combinations are easily compromised by being lead from. So what about the pointed suits?

Leading low from Jxxx is a true beginner move, but from J85 less so. An argument could be made for both the 8 and the 5 as the appropriate lead her, the small lie being told by the former probably not fatal. But the flaw here is that if it works, one risks quickly winning the third round with the Jack, trumps now drawn, endplayed for sure in those round suits. Not enough plus side here, so let's save that lead for later; our Jack suggests that Declarer will not wish to open this suit quickly either unless to rectify the count.

That leaves Spades. Dummy has 6 (not likely 7), West has 2, and Declarer promised 2 with his opening 1NT call. That leaves only 3 outstanding, and the likelihood of partner having a compromisable Queen third very low. 

Conclusion: Just lead a spade here, saving a diamond exit for later (if necessary) when we start winning those round honours, and let Declarer struggle to down one like he should.