What is optimal robber placement in Settlers?
I can't figure out if you are asking one overly broad question, or many smaller-scoped questions... in any case:

The "player to the right" strategy ignores a few possibilities, including:
 - one or both of the two players after you roll a seven,
    - one or both of the two players after you play a soldier,
    -  your victim is known to (not) have in a particular resource in hand.

Retaliation is predictable in the sense that good players will make decisions based on cost/benefit/probability analysis (including "dots" on the chits, scarcity of resources, etc.), while poor players will be swayed by subjective reasoning (retaliation, etc.). 

We play with promises of immunity, bribes -  you name it. This makes it harder to pin-down a specific strategy, but I will say that it's mostly the analytical approach that you mention.