In Settlers of Catan, what seat position is the best for odds of recieving any resource?
Key assumption: Every player places both of their initial settlements according to what will get them the most resources (so we don't have people going for port combos, weird 12/2 superstitions, etc.)



I just downloaded the rules and have the Beginner's Setup in front of me. If you don't, then this won't make any sense!

We all agree that it suffices to add the number of dots and use this to determine if one spot is better than another. 


First takes 10/5/8 (Brick/Ore/Sheep) = 12 dots
Second takes 6/9/3 (Wood/Sheep/Ore) = 11 dots. This can be interchanged with P3's move
Third takes 8/10/4 (Wheat/Sheep/Wood) = 11 dots. Again, P2 could have done this. 
Fourth takes 9/5/10 = 11 dots
Fourth takes 6/5/11 = 11 dots
Third takes 6/4/3 or 6/4/11 = 10 dots. 
Second takes... 


Here I will stop, since I have to go to class. But one thing is clear: Player one has a one dot advantage after the first placement, and Player 4 has twenty-two dots after his second placement. And it looks like The second player, on his second placement, will have AT MOST an eight-dot location. Since the first player would then have an eight-dot location (at best), his total is maximum 20 dots, where third has 21 and fourth has 22.

In conclusion, player 4 emerges with most resources

(edited, as I was having trouble keeping track of which spaces were available)