How to win at Nine Men's Morris
You can't guarantee a win. In a 1996 paper called Solving Nine Men's Morris, Ralph Gasser describes how he used search techniques to determine that, given best play, the game of nine men's morris should end in a draw.

In figure 11 of that paper, he gives a graph of the percentage of won positions for the player to move, against the number of stones each has on the board. The highest percentage of won positions is 83% when the player to move has 3 stones against 3.

The data also reveals that a player with 3 stones left cannot force a win against an opponent with 6 or more stones left. Although many of those positions should still end in draws, rather than wins for the player with more stones.

A player is much more likely to be able to force a win when they have 7 or more stones left, than when they get down to 6. A player with 4 stones against 3 can only force a win if it is their go, and they can immediately make a mill.

All of this assumes two players who are playing completely optimally, which is not usually the case. In 1990 six games were played between the British champion Mike Sunley and a heuristics-based computer program. Two games were drawn and four were won by the computer.