Using metrics provided by FRED to identify the business cycle
Prediction is difficult, especially about the future. (Berra, Goldwyn, Bohr et al.)


The problem with noting that recessions often occur immediately after low periods of unemployment is that you do not now at the time that it was a low rather than a pause.  

There are several occasions when unemployment appeared to stop falling but which were not immediately followed by recession.  Consider for example 1963, 1967, 1976, 1985, 1995, 2003 in your first linked FRED chart.  Once unemployment shoots up, you are probably in a recession and so do not need to predict 

Potential GDP is even harder to quantify meaningfully, as it is based on "the output the economy would produce with a high rate of use of its capital and labor resources."  So if unemployment falls below levels previously thought typical before leading to inflation and high interest rates, this can lead to a suggestion that GDP is exceeding its potential; unemployment is certainly now well below what the Federal Reserve recently thought was possible.  But this may merely mean that the judgement of what was typical was wrong: interest rates are still historically low, and inflation is not accelerating, while the fiscal position is loosening

Looking at your second linked FRED chart, actual GDP exceeding potential GDP can happen several years before a recession, or immediately before, or even not happen at all.  So it is not a precise signal

So you may be correct that a recession is looming, or you may be wrong and it is several years away.  Welcome to macroeconomic forecasting