Doesn't the semi-strong form of the EMH conflict with expecting stock indices to increase in the long run?
The two propositions here are:


EMH: I can't predict which stocks will do better than average.
The average stock will increase in the long run.


1 does not contradict 2.



Analogy: I am in a room full of babies.


EMH: I can't predict which of these babies will be the tallest in 20 years.
Nonetheless, I can predict that in 20 years, these babies will be taller than they are today.