Noyori hydrogenation and the Curtin–Hammett principle
There's no way to predict this.

Mnemonics are just rules, and rules are just rules. There will be exceptions, and you won't know when you should apply them a priori. If you could, it would be part of the rule by definition.

The Curtin-Hammett conditions apply when the rate of interconversion between intermediates is significantly faster than the rate of reaction from the intermediates onto their respective products. If the rate of interconversion is slow, then the ratio of products is simply governed by the ratio of intermediates.

The problem comes about from determining if the interconversion is fast. If you're looking at proton transfers or some kinds of conformational changes, it's usually pretty straightforward. Otherwise, only intuition can guide you ahead of time. Once you have experimental results, you might be able to rationalize this fact and determine that the reaction is governed by Curtin-Hammett kinetics, but there's no way to know for sure. This is just due to the complexity of binding entropy, solvent effects, etc, coupled with the intrinsic barrier for the forwards reaction.

Chemistry is hard.