Is there a rule of thumb to predict when coupled cluster might dip below the variational limit?
Let us begin with the following principle: the CC ansatz always returns an appropriate electronic wavefunction (meaning a combination of Slater determinants). Still, at least in a non-relativistic approach, the Hamiltonian does commute with the Spin operator 
\begin{equation}
S^{2}=S_{+}S_{-}-S_{z}+S_{z}^{2}
\end{equation}
(I'm using atomic units here)
and we want the wavefunction to be an eigenfunction of total spin. The difficulty in doing so is due to the fact that the excitation operator to ensure spin purity is not easy to parametrize unless you are lucky enough to have a $S^{2}=0$ state and your system wavefunction is represented by a $S^{2}=0$.
So, when you're starting with a wavefunction which is not a spin eigenfunction (for example the ground state of the nitrogen atom with the unpaired electrons), CC might not be able to recover the spin purity and, by allowing superposition of functions with different spin, you might get an energy lower than the correct one because you're looking for the minimum in a space bigger than the one you are physically allowed to .
Hope I was clear