Is AGI likely to be developed in the next decade?
As a riff on my answer to this question, which is about the broader concern of the development of the singularity, rather than the narrower concern of the development of AGI:

I can say that among AI researchers I interact with, it far more common to view the development of AGI in the next decade as speculation (or even wild speculation) than as settled fact.

This is borne out by surveys of AI researchers, with 80% thinking "The earliest that machines will be able to simulate learning and every other
aspect of human intelligence" is in "more than 50 years" or "never", and just a few percent thinking that such forms of AI are "near". It's possible to quibble over what exactly is meant by AGI, but it seems likely that for us to reach AGI, we'd need to simulate human-level intelligence in at least most of its aspects. The fact that AI researchers think this is very far off suggests that they also think AGI is not right around the corner.

I suspect that the reasons AI researchers are less optimistic about AGI than Kurzweil or others in tech (but not in AI), are rooted in the fact that we still don't have a good understanding of what human intelligence is. It's difficult to simulate something that we can't pin down. Another factor is that most AI researchers have been working in AI for a long time. There are countless past proposals for AGI frameworks, and all of them have been not just wrong, but in the end, more or less hopelessly wrong. I think this creates an innate skepticism of AGI, which may perhaps be unfair. Nonetheless, expert opinion on this one is pretty well settled: no AGI this decade, and maybe not ever!