What is the difference between return and expected return?
Formally, the return (also known as the cumulative future discounted reward) can be defined as
$$
G_t = \sum_{k=0}^\infty \gamma^k R_{t+k+1},
$$
where $0 \leq \gamma \leq 1$ is the discount factor and $R_{i}$ is the reward at time step $i$. Here $G_t$ and $R_i$ are considered random variables (and r.v.s are usually denoted with capital letters, so I am using the notation used in the book Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction, 2nd edition).
The expected return is defined as
\begin{align}
v^\pi(s) 
&amp;= \mathbb{E}\left[G_t \mid S_t = s \right] \\
&amp;= \mathbb{E}\left[\sum_{k=0}^\infty \gamma^k R_{t+k+1} \bigm\vert S_t = s \right]
\end{align}
In other words, the value of a state $s$ (associated with a policy $\pi$) is equal to the expectation of the return $G_t$ given that $S_t = s$, so $v^\pi(s)$ is defined as a conditional expectation. Note also that the expected value is usually defined with respect to a random variable, which is the case. Note also that $S_t$ is a random variable, while $s$ is a realization of this random variable.
A policy is not a probability distribution of choosing the next state. A stochastic policy is a family of a conditional probability distribution over actions given states. There are also deterministic policies. Have a look at this question What is the difference between a stochastic and a deterministic policy? for more details about the definition of stochastic and deterministic policies.

If an agent is following a policy, the agent wants to find the value at $S_{t}$ by calculating a sort of &quot;weighted average&quot; of all the returns from $S_{t}.$ This is called the expected return.

In the case of Monte Carlo Prediction, the value of a state associated with a specific policy, that is, the expected value of the return given a state is approximated with a finite (weighted) average. See e.g. What is the difference between First-Visit Monte-Carlo and Every-Visit Monte-Carlo Policy Evaluation?. Furthermore, note that the expectation of a discrete random variable is defined as a weighted average.