How to best forecast simple binary data?
Do some feature engineering. As they told you in the comments, try
to see if the event is more likely to happen during weekends or
weekdays, during certain months, during a certain season or quarter,
etc. To read some more on this topic.

https://machinelearningmastery.com/discover-feature-engineering-how-to-engineer-features-and-how-to-get-good-at-it/
Explore different machine learning models. I suggest to start with a Random Forest. 
Check your model accuracy (confusion matrix). 
Iterate. Try other features, other models...


Just to get you up and running, you can take a look at the Titanic dataset in Kaggle. It will help you understand a bit more of the problem you are trying to solve.