Why could my SVR prediction be offset, but still follow the actual pattern?
Two things that come to my mind: 

A) - have you compared the distributions with a Kolgomorov Smirnov Test or similar - (aka: are they really the same. Sure there is the big spike but besides its not that similar (by eye)) 

B) - Are training and test in the same magnitudes for the input data? If they are not this might confuse your SVR.