Time-series prediction: Model & data assumptions in AI/ML models vs conventional models
Great question @Maeaex1 !

First of all why do we even need assumptions in models (generally speaking
)?

Well we can express a task as an optimization one. And in order to converge to optimal solution, under certain constraints, we need to satisfy certain assumptions.

Regarding DNN (deep neural networks) and mathematical theory behind it , convergence assurance is given with famous Universal Approximation theorem that states that every smooth function can be estimated given enough parameters.

Caveat just because we can do it in theory does not mean its possible. For example approximating a function that generates random numbers would require infinite recources







But what about non-smooth functions (such as Time-series) one?

Well the TL;DR of the DNNS FOR NON-SMOOTH FUNCTIONS is that for a special set of piecewise smooth functions "convergence rates of the generalization by DNNs are almost optimal to estimate the non-smooth functions"

What is piecewise smooth function? function whose domain can be partitioned locally into finitely many "pieces" relative on which smoothness holds, and continuity holds across the joins of the pieces.



Ok but WHY can a DNN approximate these types of functions?

" The most notable fact is that DNNs can approximate non-smooth functions with a small number of parameters, due to activation functions and multi-layer structures. A combination of two ReLU functions can approximate step functions, and a composition of the step functions in a combination of other parts of the network can easily express smooth functions restricted to pieces. In contrast, even though the other methods have the universal approximation property, they require a larger number of parameters to approximate non-smooth structures"

So to conclude: there is a mathematical theory that insures approximations of a set of certain non-smooth functions using DNN. So if we have non-smooth function that satisfies these constraints, we can find an optimal architecture and get optimal convergance rates.