predict_proba() on a continuos target made binary
You can use a Sigmoid function on the Force values(Scaled to [0-10] based on a max value)
The Threshold should become 5 after scaling.
def predict_proba(y_pred):

    y_pred = y_pred*10/100000  # scaled to [0-10]
    thresold = 5

    proba = np.exp(y_pred - threshold)/(1 + np.exp(y_pred - threshold))

    return proba

predict_proba(100000), predict_proba(80000), predict_proba(50000), predict_proba(40000), predict_proba(10000), predict_proba(2000)

(0.9933, 0.9525, 0.5, 0.2689, 0.0179, 0.0081)