Is There A 'War On Police'? The Statistics Say No 
 
 Enlarge this image toggle caption Aaron M. Sprecher/Getty Images Aaron M. Sprecher/Getty Images 
 
 The ambush-style murder of Sheriff Deputy Darren Goforth at a gas station in suburban Houston on Aug. 29 has added new urgency to warnings about a growing "war on cops" in America. After the arrest of the suspect, an African-American man named Shannon J. Miles, the local district attorney called for more public support for law enforcement. 
 
 "It is time for the silent majority in this country to support law enforcement," said Devon Anderson, the Harris County DA. "There are a few bad apples in every profession. That does not mean there should be open warfare declared on law enforcement." 
 
 The notion of growing "warfare" against police stems in part from a statistical jump in the number of law officers murdered — "feloniously killed," in the jargon of the FBI's numbers. 
 
 In 2014, the year of the Ferguson protests and increased media attention on police misconduct, 51 officers were killed nationwide. That was a jump from the 27 killed in 2013 and many took it as a sign of greater danger for police. 
 
 Seth Stoughton, a former police officer and an assistant law professor at the University of South Carolina, calls that interpretation "nonsense." 
 
 "It's misleading to compare one year to another year," he says. 
 
 toggle caption Source: Seth Stoughton's analysis of the FBI's LEOKA data, consolidated by the Sourcebook of Criminal Justice Statistics. Credit: Camila Domonoske/NPR 
 
 Stoughton has been collecting and analyzing these data going back decades. He says 2014 looked bad in comparison with 2013 mainly because 2013 was so good. 
 
 "2013 was the safest year for police officers, ever," he says. "The safest year in recorded history." 
 
 In fact, in the larger scheme of things, 2014 looks pretty normal. The number of murders of police was about the same as 2012, and actually a lot lower than 2011. 
 
 The long-term trend is even more encouraging: On average, only about half as many police are murdered every year now, as compared with the 1970s. Stoughton says some of that improvement is probably due to better training, better gear and radically improved trauma care for cops who are shot. 
 
 But he says the numbers suggest officers are also facing fewer attacks: The number of assaults on police has also fallen, though not as sharply. 
 
 Stoughton says he's not saying police work isn't dangerous — it certainly is. And he also admits we may be seeing a few more ambush killings — cops attacked just because they're cops. 
 
 But it's hard to isolate motives in these numbers, and any uptick is probably in the single digits. 
 
 "When we're talking about 780,000 state and local police officers who are interacting with people on 67 million occasions every year, the increase from five to eight, or five to 10 — statistically, it doesn't look significant," he says. 
 
 But statistical analysis is cold comfort to police officers after a colleague has been ambushed. Some officers have been understandably shaken. 
 
 In a video that made the rounds soon after the Texas deputy was killed, a Miami officer named Lydia Marquez records herself in her car. 
 
 "When I kiss my children in the morning before I go to work, I don't know if I'm going to be coming back at the end of the day," she says. "Especially nowadays." 
 
 Marquez ends her video defiantly, with the phrase that's become a rallying cry for many cops since Ferguson: "All lives matter. Everyone's life matters." 
 
 I think that this 'war on cops' rhetoric is just another way to protect police from accountability. 
 
 "All lives matter" may sound noble, but activists hear it as code for something else. 
 
 "The way that people use the phrase is in direct opposition to 'Black Lives Matter,' " says Daunasia Yancey, a prominent member of the Black Lives Matter movement in Boston. 
 
 "I think that this 'war on cops' rhetoric is just another way to protect police from accountability," she says. "What they're facing is not violence; it's accountability." 
 
 Soon after Goforth's murder, Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick condemned what he called the "negative attitude" toward police. Accused of using the killing to shut down legitimate criticism of police, Patrick took aim at the media. On the public radio show Texas Standard, the host tried to ask him about all the recent videos showing police misconduct. 
 
 U.S. What Happens When A Police Officer Doesn't Shoot? What Happens When A Police Officer Doesn't Shoot? Listen · 4:24 4:24 
 
 "Your type of interview has to stop," Patrick said. 
 
 "Yes, there are people in every profession who cross the line and should be fired," he continued. "Quit focusing on that small percentage of those in law enforcement who have made a mistake." 
 
 Edward Conlon, a retired New York police detective who writes about police work, says his former colleagues feel unfairly judged by the mistakes of a few. He says they haven't seen evidence of a "war on cops," but they do feel embattled when it comes to public opinion. 
 
 It's not even half right that cops are at war with black America, and it's not even half right that there's a war on cops. 
 
 "The notion that there is an epidemic of violence by police is just a really hard thing to swallow," he says. 
 
 And he sees a parallel here. He thinks both sides are guilty of drawing dramatic conclusions from isolated cases. 
 
 "It's not even half right that cops are at war with black America, and it's not even half right that there's a war on cops, in any big or broad sense," Conlon says. 
 
 But there does seem to be at least one kind of war going on: a war of perceptions, driven by competing feelings of grievance. ||||| 58% Think There's A War on Police in America Today 
 
 With officers murdered in Texas and Illinois in just the last few days, most voters now believe the police are under attack in America and blame politicians critical of the cops for fanning the flames. 
 
 The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 58% of Likely U.S. Voters think there is a war on police in America today. Just 27% disagree, while 15% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 
 
 Sixty percent (60%) believe comments critical of the police by some politicians make it more dangerous for police officers to do their jobs. Only 18% think those comments improve the quality of the police’s performance. Thirteen percent (13%) say the politicians’ comments have no impact. 
 
 While there is usually a wide racial difference of opinion on questions related to the police, most black voters (54%) agree with the majority of white (60%) and other minority voters (56%) that there is a war on police underway. 
 
 Blacks (36%) are far less likely than whites (66%) and other minorities (55%), however, to say the comments of some politicians are making it more dangerous for the police. There’s very little belief in any of the groups, though, that the comments are improving police performance. 
 
 Protests against the police have been growing since the killing in August 2014 of a black teenager by a white police officer in Ferguson, Missouri, although a grand jury did not indict the officer for any wrongdoing. That incident followed by several similar ones around the country led to the establishment of the “Black Lives Matter” movement to protest perceived racist behavior by many police officers. 
 
 Eighty-two percent (82%) of black voters think most black Americans receive unfair treatment from the police. White voters by a 56% to 30% margin disagree. Other minority voters are evenly divided. 
 
 (Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook. 
 
 The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on August 31-September 1, 2015 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology. 
 
 Seventy-two percent (72%) of Americans have a favorable view of the police in the area where they live. Most (66%) also approve of the tactics used by their local police officers. 
 
 Those under 40 believe even more strongly than their elders that there is a war on police going on, but these younger voters are less likely to think politicians critical of the police are making it worse. 
 
 Seventy-eight percent (78%) of Republicans think there is a war on police now, compared to 48% of Democrats and 52% of voters not affiliated with either major party. 
 
 Twenty-six percent (26%) of Democrats believe political comments critical of the police are improving the officers’ performance, but just 12% of GOP voters and 15% of unaffiliateds agree. Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Republicans and 62% of unaffiliated voters think these comments make it more dangerous for the police to do their jobs, a view shared by only 44% of voters in President Obama’s party. 
 
 Seventy-seven percent (77%) of voters who say there is now a war on police believe the critical comments by some politicians make it more dangerous for the cops. Among those who don’t think there is a war on police going on, 35% say the comments improve police performance; 30% say it makes things more dangerous, while 28% think the comments have no impact. 
 
 Only 17% of all voters believe politicians raise racial issues to address real problems. Seventy percent (70%) think they talk race just to get elected. 
 
 Americans are skeptical of the protests that followed white-on-black police incidents in Ferguson and in Baltimore, Maryland. 
 
 Just 13% think most deaths that involve the police are the fault of the policeman. Seventy percent (70%) of voters believe the level of crime in low-income inner city communities is a bigger problem in America today than police discrimination against minorities 
 
 Only 19% of black voters think the justice system is fair to blacks and Hispanics, however, compared to 50% of whites and 44% of other minority voters. 
 
 Some have countered the “black lives matter” slogan by saying, “all lives matter.” Voters overwhelmingly agree. 
 
 Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only. 
 
 Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) or follow us on Twitter or Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news. ||||| Here’s Fox News earlier this week, shamelessly exploiting a tragedy to gin up outrage. 
 
 They certainly aren’t the only ones. Here are some more examples of media outlets and politicians spreading the hysteria: 
 
 As I’ve noted here before, we’re seeing similar rhetoric from politicians, particularly from GOP presidential hopefuls, including Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, and Scott Walker. 
 
 All of this fact-free fearmongering is having an effect. A Rasmussen poll taken last week found that 58 percent of respondents now believe there is now a “war on police.” Just 27 percent disagreed. 
 
 So let’s go through the numbers. Again. So far, 2015 is on pace to see 35 felonious killings of police officers. If that pace holds, this year would end with the second lowest number of murdered cops in decades. Here’s a graph depicting annual killings of cops with firearms from Mark A. Perry at the American Enterprise Institute: 
 
 But these are just the raw numbers. If we look at the rate of killings of cops, the trend is more pronounced. There are two ways examine the rate of police killings. The first is to look at the rate of killings of cops per 100K cops on the street. This figure is somewhat difficult to calculate because there are widely varying estimates of how many cops are on the street. It depends on how you define “police officer,” who is doing the estimating, and various other factors. But if you use consistent sources, the number of police has generally gone up, while the number of officers killed has generally gone down. So your graph looks something like this one, from Dan Wang: 
 
 The other way you could measure the rate of killings of police officers is to look at the number with respect to the overall population. Here’s another graph from Perry that plots those figures: 
 
 As you can see, by this measure 2015 is shaping up to be the second safest year for police ever, after 2013. 
 
 Speaking of which, it’s important to note again here that 2013 was an abnormally and historically low year for police fatalities, as this graph from University of South Carolina law professor (and former police officer) Seth Stoughton shows. 
 
 @radleybalko More limited data set, but here are some relevant graphs. pic.twitter.com/jPCMPOhlL7 — Seth Stoughton (@PoliceLawProf) September 10, 2015 
 
 So when police advocates say that 2014 saw an 80+ percent increase in homicides of cops over 2013, remember a few things: First, 2013 wasn’t just an all-time low, it was an all-time low by a significant margin. Second, the 2013 figure was so low that even a small increase will look large when expressed as a percentage. Third, the figure for the following year, 2014, (51 officers killed) was essentially consistent with the average for the previous five years (50 killed), and still lower than any five-year average going back to 1960. (See this graph, also from Wang.) Fourth, again, 2015 is on pace (35 killings) to be lower than any year but 2013. Another common response from police organizations and their advocates is that the reduction in fatalities is due to better medical care and improvements in protective gear such as bulletproof vests. Both things are undoubtedly true. But assaults on police officers are in decline as well. That is, not only are fewer people killing police officers, fewer people are trying to harm them. These graphs from Stoughton show the raw numbers of assaults on police: 
 
 As you can see, at best you could argue that assaults on police with firearms are about even with where they’ve been for most of the last decade, save for a dip in 2009 and 2010. But these too are raw figures. When we look at the rate of assault on cops, from either the perspective of total cops or total population, the downward trend once again becomes more pronounced. From Daniel Bier, here are two graphs looking at the assault rates on police officers. 
 
 Any murder of a police officer is a tragedy. (As is any murder of a non-police officer.) But media outlets, politicians, and police advocates do real damage when they push this false narrative about a rising threat to law enforcement. First, this sort of propaganda weights the public debate and discourse. When there’s a fictional “war on cops” blaring in the background, it becomes much more difficult to have an honest discussion about police cameras, police militarization, use of lethal force policies, police discipline, police transparency, training, police accountability, and a host of other issues. Of course, that’s precisely the point. 
 
 But there’s also a much more pernicious effect of exaggerating the threats faced by law enforcement. When cops are constantly told that they’re under constant fire, or that every interaction with a citizen could be their last, or that they’re fortunate each time they come home from the job in one piece, it’s absolute poison for police-community relations. That kind of reminder on a regular basis would put anyone on edge. We’re putting police officers in a perpetually combative mindset that psychologically isolates them from the communities they serve. Incessantly telling cops that they’re under fire can condition them to see the people with whom they interact not as citizens with rights, but as potential threats. That not only means more animosity, anger and confrontation, it can also be a barrier to building relationships with people in the community — the sorts of relationships that help police officers solve crimes and keep communities safe. 
 
 It also just makes for a miserable work life. If you’ve been trained to think your job is getting progressively more dangerous, and that a significant percentage of the people you encounter on a daily basis want to do you harm, you’re going to be less tolerant of dissent. You’re going to constantly be on-guard, on-edge, and jumpy. That isn’t a state of mind that’s conducive to de-escalation, that opts for persuasion over brute force, or seeks out peaceful conflict resolution. It’s a state of mind ruled by the limbic system, not the frontal lobe. And yes, it’s a state of mind that makes an officer more likely to reach for his gun. Again, this isn’t a comment on cops. It’s a comment on human beings in general. 
 
 An over-emphasis on and obsession with a “war on cops” would be dangerous and counterproductive even if it were true. But by every imaginable measure, it just isn’t true. When this false narrative comes from police organizations and their supporters, it’s at least somewhat understandable. When it comes from politicians, it’s grandstanding and demagoguery. When it comes from media organizations, it’s journalistic malpractice. And it’s almost certainly getting people killed. 
 
 One last point: I’ve seen some police officials and their advocates respond to these statistics by pointing out that even if assaults and killings of cops are down, anti-police rhetoric is increasing. Therefore, they say, they’re justified in proclaiming that there’s a war on the police. This is nonsense. Police agencies are government agencies. They’re government agencies in whom we entrust the power to detain, arrest, and kill. Yes, it’s true that some people are demanding more of those agencies. It’s true that personal technology is enabling people to create an independent video narrative of their interactions with police. It’s true that those videos have sometimes revealed police misconduct and brutality, and that police officers, like all people, sometimes mis-remember, misstate, and outright lie when recounting contentious, traumatic, high-stakes incidents. And it’s true that because of all of this, the public as a whole today finds police officers as a whole less trustworthy than in the past. It’s also true that some activists, pundits, and politicians are demanding more accountability, transparency, and training for police. 
 
 None of these things are indicative of a “war.” On the contrary, all of this new skepticism, criticism, forced transparency, and mistrust of the police is — again — coming even as violence against police officers is reaching historic lows. This is how a democracy is supposed to work. It’s something worth celebrating. 
 
 Instead, police groups and their advocates are claiming that the mere act of criticizing a government entity is akin to declaring war on it, and that therefore, police critics are culpable every time a police officer is murdered. (And given the way they ignore and abuse statistics, those critics are also apparently culpable for a lot of murders that never happened.) They’re essentially saying that exercising constitutional rights and participating in democracy are in and of themselves acts of violence. And in many cases, this is coming from the very people that the government empowers to use actual violence. 
 
 That is something worth worrying about.
– A recent Rasmussen poll found 58% of respondents believe a "war on police" exists. The sentiment is being echoed publicly: After Shannon J. Miles was arrested for killing Sheriff Deputy Darren Goforth at a gas station in Houston, a local DA remarked that "there are a few bad apples in every profession. That does not mean there should be open warfare declared on law enforcement." NPR reports some people are using this stat as evidence of that war: In 2013, 27 US officers were "feloniously killed"; a year later, the number was 51. But Seth Stoughton, a former cop and assistant law professor, says this so-called war is, in fact, imaginary. "It's misleading to compare one year to another year," says Stoughton. "2013 was the safest year for police officers, ever," as in, "the safest year in recorded history." The number of police deaths last year was on par with 2012 and significantly lower than in 2011. We're now on track to have 35 felonious police deaths this year, which would be the second-lowest number in decades after 2013, writes Radley Balko at the Washington Post. The number of officers murdered has dropped by 50% compared to the 1970s, Stoughton says, and while things like improved protective gear play a role in that, assaults on officers are also down. More ambush killings, like the one in Houston, may be occurring, but "the increase from five to eight, or five to 10" over 67 million police-citizen interactions every year, "statistically, it doesn't look significant," Stoughton says.