Who is arguing to stay, and who to go? 
 
 REMAIN Prime Minister David Cameron leads the “Remain” camp, and he could lose his job if his effort fails. Behind him are most of the Conservative government he leads, the Labour Party, the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party, which is strongly pro-Europe. 
 
 Most independent economists and large businesses favor staying in, as do the most recent heads of Britain’s intelligence services. President Obama, Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany and President Xi Jinping of China also want Britain to stay in. 
 
 LEAVE The “Leave” camp is led by Michael Gove, the justice minister, and Boris Johnson, the former mayor of London. Nearly half the Conservative members of Parliament favor leaving, as do the members of the U.K. Independence Party, or UKIP, and its leader, Nigel Farage. Their main issues are sovereignty and immigration. 
 
 Abroad, the French National Front leader, Marine Le Pen, favors Brexit, as do other anti-Europe parties in Germany, the Netherlands and elsewhere. ||||| The growing possibility that the U.K. might leave the European Union shook markets globally on Monday, reflecting broad concern that next week’s referendum could slow down the world’s economy. 
 
 Polls suggest that momentum is growing for a vote on June 23 for Britain to leave the EU, spurring concerns about a prolonged stretch of uncertainty that could damage economic growth and trigger losses in financial markets. Stocks slumped, Japan’s yen surged and bond yields tumbled to fresh lows in a broad flight to safety. 
 
 ... ||||| Up until now, U.S. investors have largely shrugged off the threat of America's closest ally potentially voting itself into a recession. 
 
 But with the June 23 U.K. referendum growing closer and support for leaving the European Union rising, Wall Street is starting to take notice of the Brexit risk. Futures are pointing to a lower open for U.S. stocks Tuesday, after the market slumped on Monday. Volatility has ratcheted higher as the chances of a Brexit seem to have increased. 
 
 The U.K. government, which is campaigning against leaving the EU, has warned Brexit would kill U.K. jobs, plunge the country into a recession and create currency turbulence. 
 
 "Now it's becoming a clear and present risk" for U.S. investors, said Troy Gayeski, senior portfolio manager at SkyBridge Capital. 
 
 But how much damage would Brexit do to the American market in today's highly interconnected financial world? After all, almost one-third of American sales in Europe are in the U.K., which is the U.S.' 7th biggest trading partner. And U.S. businesses remain very cozy with the U.K. 
 
 Related: Why Brexit matters to America 
 
 No one can say for sure, but the consensus is that the U.K. voting to leave the EU would create trouble -- but not catastrophe -- for U.S. investors. 
 
 In the weeks after a vote in favor of Brexit, the S&P 500 would likely slump 5% and volatility would spike by 40%, according to a scenario analysis conducted by financial technology company FIS. The stress test, used by asset managers to assess risk, was based on economic and market analysis and by studying previous shocks to the system. 
 
 As you might expect, British stocks face greater downside here. FIS warns of a 15% drop for U.K. markets and a 60% surge in volatility. A separate stress test conducted by risk modeling company Axioma envisions an even deeper loss of as much as 24% for British equities. 
 
 Financial stocks are more exposed than their peers due to their close proximity to market turbulence and the memory of the 2008 meltdown on Wall Street. U.S. financial stocks could drop by 8% if Brexit happens, according to FIS. 
 
 Gayeski agrees that U.S. stocks could take a hit, though not a big one. He said it's "probably 3% to 5%." He said a more serious drop of 10% (technically called a correction) or 20% (a bear market) "sounds extreme" at this point. 
 
 Michael Block, chief strategist at Rhino Trading, notes that Brexit doesn't mean the U.K. will cut all ties with the EU. "The Loch Ness Monster is not going to emerge and start shooting fire from its claws to defend the island," Block joked in a note. 
 
 Related: Brexit could trigger European stock market crash 
 
 Of course, the scary part about Brexit is it calls into question the entire European experiment of integration. Investors would naturally fear: Which country is next to jump ship? 
 
 "It gets awfully messy. It could create some powerful forces for disintegrating the whole project," said Ed Yardeni, president of investment advisory Yardeni Research. 
 
 That's why FIS analyzed a second scenario called "exit contagion" in which a Brexit leads to calls from powerful anti-EU parties across Europe to renegotiate with the EU. In that scenario, domestic politics in Europe could be destabilized in a way that rattles markets. 
 
 Under an "exit contagion" situation, the U.S. stock market could drop by 10% and financial stocks may retreat 15%, FIS said. 
 
 Brexit "could provide a significant shock to securities markets," Laurence Wormald, head of research at FIS, wrote in the report. "Asset managers should be paying very close attention." 
 
 Related: Banks having worst start to a year since 2011 
 
 The good news is that Brexit could make American stocks look pretty good by comparison. 
 
 "There could be a 5% to 10% quick correction -- but then widespread recognition that increasingly the U.S. is the only game in town in terms of owning stocks," said Yardeni. 
 
 Yardeni and other analysts also believe global central bankers would come to the markets' rescue by pumping extra liquidity into the financial system. The U.S. Federal Reserve would likely be forced to further dial back its plans to raise interest rates as well. 
 
 "Any selloff in U.S. stocks could turn out to be a buying opportunity," said Yardeni. 
 
 --CNNMoney's Ivana Kottasova contributed to this report. ||||| SHARE THIS ARTICLE Share Tweet Post Email 
 
 Four polls put the “Leave” campaign ahead of “Remain” as The Sun newspaper came out in favor of Britain quitting the European Union, sending stocks and the pound down. 
 
 Brexit Watch: The pound, the polls, and the probability of Brexit, all in one place 
 
 Sterling approached a two-month low against the dollar and investors rushed to havens Tuesday after a series of new polls the previous evening put “Leave” ahead with just nine days of campaigning left. The final blow came when The Sun, Britain’s biggest-selling newspaper, backed a so-called Brexit on its front page. 
 
 Prime Minister David Cameron’s strategy to keep the U.K. in the 28-nation EU is under increasing pressure in the countdown to the June 23 referendum, as the “Leave” campaign’s focus on reducing immigration appears to resonate more with voters than the government’s multiple warnings of economic recession outside the bloc. 
 
 John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University in Glasgow and one of Britain’s leading experts on opinion polling and elections, put the likelihood of a Brexit at about 33 percent, up from 25 percent three weeks ago. 
 
 “This is an issue on which the British public have always demonstrated the potential to vote to leave,” Curtice said in a Bloomberg Television interview Tuesday. Still, Curtice said, the movement in the polls is not large, and often in referendums voters move back to the status quo in the final days of the campaign. “Clearly one of the crucial things between now and June 23 is whether or not the polls do move back towards ‘Remain’ as voters look at the risks of leaving.” 
 
 The pound dropped 0.7 percent to $1.4169 as of 11:45 a.m. in London after falling as low as $1.4112. Implied volatility for one-month options on the currency climbed to 29.125 percent, more than three times the level at the end of last year. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was down 1.2 percent. 
 
 The NumberCruncherPolitics estimate of the probability of a Brexit surged to 32.6 percent from 23.7 percent. Its creator, Matt Singh, wrote that “we have ample evidence that the move is real.” Oddschecker’s survey of bookmakers’ implied probabilities rose to 42.5 percent on Tuesday morning from 33.5 percent a day earlier. “The momentum is such that it seems inevitable Brexit will be favorite by the weekend,” said William Hill Plc spokesman Graham Sharpe. 
 
 Why the U.K. Is Voting on Whether to Leave the EU: QuickTake 
 
 “Outside the EU we can become richer, safer and free at long last to forge our own destiny -- as America, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and many other great democracies already do,” The Sun said. “If we stay, Britain will be engulfed in a few short years by this relentlessly expanding ­German-dominated federal state.” 
 
 Cameron has turned to the opposition Labour Party to help shore up the “Remain” vote. On Monday, his predecessor as prime minister, Gordon Brown, made an impassioned plea to Labour voters not to turn their backs on the EU. On Tuesday, the party’s current leader, Jeremy Corbyn, will have his turn. 
 
 “Today I am issuing a call to the whole Labour movement to persuade people to back ‘Remain’ to protect jobs and rights at work,” Corbyn will say at an event in London, according to his office. “We have just nine days to go to convince Labour supporters to vote ‘Remain.” 
 
 The Vote Leave campaign aimed for economic reassurance, promising that spending on all the things the EU currently funds such as university research and farm subsidies, as well as cutting tax on fuel and increasing spending on the National Health Service. “We’re going to take back control of the money we send to the EU,” Employment Minister Priti Patel told the BBC. “The government of the day will have options and choices as to how to spend that money.” 
 
 For the Labour “Remain” campaign, former Home Secretary Alan Johnson described this as “fantasy economics.” “That money won’t exist,” he told the BBC. “It only takes a 0.6 percent movement in our wealth to eradicate the 8 billion pounds ($11.3 billion) that is sent to Europe.” 
 
 Polling companies were burned by their failure to predict last year’s U.K. general election result, and a yearlong inquiry into their problems found the issues would be hard to fix. But even if the absolute numbers are wrong, the direction of travel is clear. 
 
 Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who said he exchanges regular text messages with Cameron, expressed the hope that the U.K. will stay in the bloc. “I have seen many predictions, I’ve seen polls that are all counting on the result that they will leave,” Rutte said in an interview in Amsterdam. “It makes absolutely no sense, and therefore I count on the collective wisdom of the Brits, and I’ve so far never been disappointed.” 
 
 — With assistance by Alex Morales, Alan Crawford, and Corina Ruhe ||||| The Leave campaign has the momentum but that does not mean it will win, writes Sebastian Payne 
 
 Don’t panic, Mr Cameron! Don’t panic! The polls might be looking bad for the Remain campaign, but it should not be terrified — at least, not yet. Clearly the momentum is with the Leave camp: two ICM polls have it six points ahead, YouGov seven points ahead and ORB one point ahead. What is less certain is whether this will translate into a victory on June 23 for those who want to leave the EU. There are a few reasons for the Brexiters to wait before cracking open the champagne. 
 
 First, the Leave campaign has undoubtedly had a good fortnight. Its message on Turkey “joining the EU” has boosted its anti-immigration message, while helpfully distracting from the economic uncertainties of an Out vote. Leading Tory Brexiters Michael Gove and Boris Johnson performed well in the first proper television events, while the prime minister has looked rattled. But the effects of the Labour “relaunch” have yet to be accounted for in the polls and uncertain left-leaning voters may still plump for Remain. 
 
 Second, differential turnout will be key in the final vote. According to the latest YouGov survey, 53 per cent of ABC1 voters back Remain, compared to 35 per cent of C2DE voters. Traditionally, it is the former group who are more likely to turn out and vote. 
 
 It is completely unknown who the electorate is in this referendum. The Electoral Commission is preparing for an 80 per cent turnout, which would be 14 percentage points higher than last year’s general election. We have no idea who these extra voters would be, or what is motivating them. A higher turnout was thought to favour a Remain victory, but this might no longer be the case. 
 
 Third, conventional wisdom says there will be a swing back to the status quo in the next few days. Peter Kellner, the former president of pollsters YouGov, has dug into recent elections and referendums and concluded there is nearly always crucial movement in the final run-up. The Stronger In campaign has long planned for a Leave boost at this stage, followed by panic (which we are seeing now) that would motivate their supporters into action. 
 
 Finally, there are a few more weapons left in the Remain arsenal. The International Monetary Fund has yet to release its final report on what a vote to leave will mean for the UK economy, and we have yet to see all the former living prime ministers on stage together. These two factors may offer a much-needed boost to the pro-EU cause. 
 
 In depth UK’s EU referendum News, comment and analysis on the referendum to decide whether Britain will leave the EU. 
 
 Until the past few weeks, Leave campaigners have, in private, been reluctant to predict whether they can win the referendum. They are still expecting a swing back to Remain, but the question persists as to how big this will be. Now there is a sense that something big might be happening. 
 
 Brexiters are also uncertain about whether voters will bottle it on polling day. There is clearly a lot of Eurosceptic sentiment around, but will that translate into Out votes on June 23? Or will the fear fomented by the Remain camp push people back towards the status quo? 
 
 At this stage, the campaign is finely balanced. Only a fool would predict what is going to happen and neither side is taking the result for granted. The next week or so is going to be a bumpy ride. 
 
 sebastian.payne@ft.com ||||| Pundits and pollsters are having a nervous breakdown as they try to work out who will clinch victory in the EU referendum, with every rise and fall in the polls just prolonging the agony. 
 
 Rising support for Leave in various polls - with our own ORB one putting it one point ahead - has ignited speculation about whether Britain is "on course for Brexit". But here are six reasons why Remainers shouldn't give up hope of winning. 
 
 1. History favours the status quo 
 
 The main way pro-EU campaigners have sought to attack Brexit is by the uncertainty and risk it poses for Britain, casting Remain as the "devil you know" option. Brexiteers have responded by talking up the risks of staying in the EU, but they'll struggle to dislodge the idea that a vote to "Remain" is the status quo choice - it's in the name after all.
– In Britain these days, it's all about "Leave" vs. "Remain." Those are the two choices voters will have in a June 23 referendum on whether the UK should exit the European Union—or Brexit, as it's known in shorthand. Some coverage: Rupert Murdoch's Sun tabloid just came out in favor of leaving the EU, and it urges readers to vote for Brexit here. A political professor now puts the odds of leaving at 33%, up from 25% less than a month ago. Bloomberg assesses. Along those lines, a major bookmaker predicts the Leave camp will become the majority by this weekend, per Business Insider. Yes, the Leave camp has momentum, but the Financial Times explains why it's not time for David Cameron and the rest of the Remain backers to panic. The Telegraph looks at six factors, including the often-overlooked group of voters in Northern Ireland, most of whom seem to want to stay in the EU. Still, US markets are starting to get worried about the ramifications of a Leave vote winning, reports CNNMoney. Global markets, too, notes the Wall Street Journal. The New York Times covers the broad strokes of the opposing sides' views in a basic primer here. Another Times story looks at the huge ramifications for foreign workers in Britain if Brexit prevails.