Who should win, who will win these Oscars 
 
 Predicting an Oscar is like winning an Oscar: You don't know until they open the envelope. Just for fun, here are envelopes of our own. And the Academy Award should/will go to … 
 
 BEST PICTURE 
 
 Should win: The Social Network 
 
 Will win: The King's Speech 
 
 Why: It has been an exceptional year for films, and the 10 nominees are worthy of a best-picture nod, with The Social Network at the top of that list. Earlier in the year it seemed a groundswell was pointing toward the enthralling saga of the founding of Facebook. 
 
 But the stammering king who triumphantly finds his voice will edge out that absorbing whofoundedit, despite its superb performances, brilliant direction, sharp writing and exquisitely complex, if not always likable, lead character. Most people love a happy ending and a clear-cut hero, and they get that with The King's Speech. 
 
 The Social Network is a much more ambiguous tale, lacking neatly tied loose ends and challenging us to mull over the complexities of invention, idea ownership, the bonds of friendship and the role of online social interaction in human connection. 
 
 The other nominees:Black Swan, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, 127 Hours, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter's Bone 
 
 BEST DIRECTOR 
 
 Should win: David Fincher, The Social Network 
 
 Will win:Tom Hooper, The King's Speech 
 
 Why: While well-directed, the heart of The King's Speech is in its performances, spot-on dialogue and impeccable production design. The genius in The Social Network is its brilliant direction and a fast-paced storytelling style that deftly blends flashbacks, flash-forwards and a legal setting. Fincher (Zodiac) deserves the award for this achievement. And in the best-case scenario Sunday night, Oscar voters will split the top honors and give best picture to The King's Speech and best director to Fincher. 
 
 Vote: 83rd annual Oscar ballot USA TODAY Refamiliarize yourself with this year's nominees before you turn in your Oscar pool form. Vote: 83rd annual Oscar ballot Written by Susan Kelly and Claudia Puig, produced by Jayme Deerwester, USA TODAY 
 
 The other nominees:Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan; David O. Russell, The Fighter; Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit 
 
 BEST ACTOR 
 
 Should/will win: Colin Firth 
 
 Why: In another year, James Franco's exhilarating performance in 127 Hours would have gotten the award, and certainly Jesse Eisenberg is terrific in The Social Network as Facebook founder and social networking monarch Mark Zuckerberg. 
 
 But the award will go to the actor portraying another real-life ruler —King George VI. Firth powerfully conveys the pressures of being thrust into a highly public position with a disability, paralyzed by the knowledge that an empire hangs on his halting words. It's impossible to imagine another actor playing this part, so pitch-perfect is he as the stammering king — alternately frustrated, formal, dryly funny, determined and poignant. 
 
 The other nominees: Javier Bardem, Biutiful; Jeff Bridges, True Grit 
 
 BEST ACTRESS 
 
 Should win: Annette Bening 
 
 Will win: Natalie Portman 
 
 Why: Portman has taken the lion's share of awards, so there's no reason to think she won't take home the Oscar. However, her portrayal of a young ballerina becoming unhinged consists mostly of looking fearful and acting vulnerable. 
 
 In contrast, Bening's portrayal of a high-strung lesbian mom in The Kids Are All Right is a complicated blend of anxious, stern, brittle and caring. She makes it seem effortless. 
 
 The other nominees:Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole; Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone; Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine 
 
 Paramount Pictures Christian Bale stars as the troubled Dicky in 'The Fighter.' Will he knock out the competition? 
 
 BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR 
 
 Should/will win: Christian Bale 
 
 Why: Bale gave the showiest performance, if that's the best word to use for his physical transformation and arsenal of tics made even more visceral with his Massachusetts "townie" accent and unique speech pattern. It's a haunting portrayal by a very talented actor, and Hollywood has a tradition of overlooking bad real-life behavior, particularly when edgy, powerful performances are concerned. 
 
 The other nominees: John Hawkes, Winter's Bone; Jeremy Renner, The Town; Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right; Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech 
 
 BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS 
 
 Should win: Jacki Weaver 
 
 Will win: Melissa Leo 
 
 Why: It's doubtful that enough academy voters saw the crime thriller Animal Kingdom to crown Weaver the winner, but the 63-year-old Australian actress's performance as the scariest maternal figure since Precious' Mo'Nique is astonishing. 
 
 Leo has been taking home most of the season's awards in the category, and she's very good as the pushy mother of boxing brothers in The Fighter. It's a solid performance, but not a spectacular one. 
 
 The other nominees:Amy Adams, The Fighter; Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech; Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit 
 
 Disney/Pixar Woody, center, and company of 'Toy Story 3' will most likely outplay that 'Dragon' and that 'Illusionist.' 
 
 BEST ANIMATED FILM 
 
 Should/will win:Toy Story 3 
 
 Why: No contest here. Though How to Train Your Dragon and The Illusionist were entertaining and visually remarkable, Toy Story 3 was, simply, great in every way possible. An undeniable success (and the year's most critically acclaimed) as a comedy, action film and poignant coming-of-age story with brilliant voice performances and gorgeous visuals, this three-quel brings the seminal Pixar saga to a masterful close. 
 
 ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY 
 
 Should/will win: David Seidler, The King's Speech 
 
 Why: While Inception was a brilliantly directed mind-bender, it was Christopher Nolan's direction that made it noteworthy, not the dialogue, which had moments of clunky exposition. The Kids Are All Right had some lovely exchanges, but here it's the performances by Bening, Ruffalo, Julianne Moore and young actors Mia Wasikowska and Josh Hutcherson that made the biggest impression. Another Year's dialogue felt profoundly authentic, but may have been substantially improvised. The Fighter's screenplay was not as noteworthy as David O. Russell's direction and key performances. As written by Seidler, The King's Speech was the wittiest, most memorable and consistently articulate. 
 
 ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 
 
 Should/will win: Aaron Sorkin, The SocialNetwork 
 
 Why: Sorkin's sharp, rapid-fire dialogue was an ideal match for David Fincher's sure-footed direction and was very believable. Former playwright and TV writer Sorkin took lines from Ben Mezrich's book The Accidental Billionaires and ran with them, building upon his prose and fashioning a brilliant script uniquely his own. Winter's Bone featured a gritty screenplay, but as with 127 Hours the potency of the story lies in the performances. The Coen brothers' adaptation of True Grit hewed closely to Charles Portis' novel. Toy Story 3 might be the runner-up after Social Network, but it's unclear why it's considered "adapted" — from its predecessors? 
 
 BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM 
 
 Should/will win: In a Better World (Denmark) 
 
 Why: This is a moving film that explores bonds between parents and children and the repercussions of violence. But it's not as darkly grim as Biutiful (Mexico), which features an incendiary performance by the Oscar-nominated Javier Bardem but is probably too unrelentingly bleak for many. In a Better World filmmaker Susanne Bier (After the Wedding) approaches complex subjects with humanity and wisdom. 
 
 The other nominees:Dogtooth, Greece; Incendies, Canada; Outside the Law (Hors-la-loi), Algeria 
 
 Brent Jones. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to For more information about reprints & permissions , visit our FAQ's. To report corrections and clarifications, contact Standards Editor. For publication consideration in the newspaper, send comments to letters@usatoday.com . Include name, phone number, city and state for verification. To view our corrections, go to corrections.usatoday.com ||||| Who better to give his opinion on this year's most celebrated films than heavyweight champion and actor Mike Tyson.In this clip, from FunnyOrDie , Tyson sits down with Leonard Maltin to thoughtfully pontificate on the myriad ways that this year's Oscar-nominated films have pushed the envelope -- or something like that.From insisting that Meryl Streep is nominated for 'All The Kids Are Here' to stating that Mark Wahlberg of 'The Fighter' couldn't hold his own in the ring without The Funky Bunch backing him up, Tyson was not short on some pretty heavy Oscar opinions.But who was one actress that received Tyson's stamp of approval? He gushed that Halle Berry 's performance in 'Avatar' (which he insisted was a 2010 film) was "just stupefying."Tyson goes on to tout his own film -- 'The Pigeon Whisperer' -- which he believes should have been in the Oscar running for best picture.
– It's Academy Awards weekend, so in anticipation of Sunday's ceremony, Claudia Puig offers up her choices for who should win—and who actually will win—in USA Today: Best Picture: "Despite its superb performances, brilliant direction, sharp writing, and exquisitely complex, if not always likable, lead character," The Social Network will lose out to less-worthy contender The King's Speech—which brings audiences the "happy ending and clear-cut hero" they crave, writes Puig. Best Director: Once again, The Social Network deserves a win because its "brilliant direction" is at the heart of its success as a film—but The King's Speech will probably grab this one as well. Best Actor: Finally, a category that The King's Speech actually deserves to win. Colin Firth is "pitch-perfect" as stammering King George VI, and he'll take home the prize. Best Actress: Based on most of the awards shows so far, we may as well hand this one to Natalie Portman for Black Swan. But Annette Bening, who made it "seem effortless" to portray her high-strung character in The Kids Are All Right, is the right choice. Click for the complete list (or check out a Funny or Die video featuring Mike Tyson's Oscar picks.)