Breaking: Nelson to retire 
 
 posted at 1:53 pm on December 27, 2011 by Ed Morrissey 
 
 Add another to the list of Democratic victims of ObamaCare: 
 
 Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson of Nebraska will announce today that he is retiring after two terms, a serious blow to Democratic efforts to hold onto their majority in the chamber next November. Nelson is scheduled to hold a press conference back home in Nebraska as early as today to make his decision official, said several Democratic insiders close to the leadership. … The White House and top Senate Democrats, including Majority Leader Harry Reid (Nev.) and Sen. Chuck Schumer (N.Y.), had quietly mounted a pressure campaign to keep Nelson from retiring. Nelson has more than $3 million in his campaign war chest, and his approval rating solidified after falling over the last several years. But with Nelson stepping down, the Democrats’ hold on the Senate is in serious doubt, although Democratic leaders believe they can still do so. Republicans are expected to pick up control of the Cornhusker State seat, although popular former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D) has been talking to top Democrats about possibly running again. 
 
 How big of a deal is this? On one hand, it’s easy to underestimate the power of incumbency. On the other, the man couldn’t even eat a pizza in peace after casting a decisive vote for ObamaCare and tossing his pro-life credentials into the wastebasket by doing so. Nelson wasn’t going to get re-elected, and would likely have lost by a wide margin in a very red state, especially in a presidential election cycle. 
 
 Democrats could try to get Kerrey to return to Nebraska, but getting him elected will be a tall order. He was a popular Democrat, but he’s spent most of his time out of Congress in New York as president of the progressive New School. He retired from that position at the end of last year, but had previously toyed with returning to politics — as mayor of New York City. That doesn’t seem to be a good resume for a Senate campaign in Nebraska, even if Kerrey defied the New School faculty and endorsed the invasion of Iraq in 2003. 
 
 I don’t think Nelson’s retirement really changes the calculus in Nebraska. In a presidential cycle, a credible Republican candidate will be almost certain to replace Nelson, even if Nelson is no longer running. 
 
 Update: The Omaha World-Herald confirms Nelson’s decision to retire, and points out the political layout in Nebraska: 
 
 Democrats have no candidate waiting in the wings. They will have to scramble for a candidate who can quickly organize a statewide campaign and raise millions in less than a year, while competing against Republicans who have been in campaign mode for more than a year. It’s not impossible, but the odds are long. Some Democrats whose names have been bandied about as possible contenders include State Sen. Steve Lathrop and former Lt. Gov. Kim Robak. For Republicans, the dream of holding all five of Nebraska’s congressional seats and all five statewide offices is now within reach. Nelson was the lone Democrat to hold a high statewide or federal office in Nebraska. The next highest-ranking Democrat in the state is Omaha Mayor Jim Suttle. 
 
 There’s a reason for that shutout in federal offices; Nebraska went for John McCain in 2008 by 15 points and nearly 140,000 votes in a race that Obama won by seven points nationally. After ObamaCare and the betrayal of Nebraskans by supposedly conservative Democrat Ben Nelson, it’s very likely that it will take a long time for Nebraskans to trust a Democrat to be conservative and pro-life in Washington again. 
 
 Related Posts: ||||| Updated at 3:45 p.m. with Nelson’s and Kerrey’s remarks 
 
 Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.) announced Tuesday he will not seek reelection, leaving his seat as a strong pickup opportunity for the GOP in the 2012 election. 
 
 Nelson, 70, said in a web video that he wants to spend more time with his family and look for other ways to serve. 
 
 “Therefore, I am announcing today that I will not seek reelection,” he said. “Simply put: It is time to move on.” 
 
 The national Democratic Party had spent more than $1 million in advertising this year driving up Nelson’s personal approval rating, perhaps in hopes of convincing him that he could win in a dark red state. But Republican-aligned groups also spent heavily trying to define the moderate Democrat as an enabler of President Obama, particularly because Nelson voted for Obama’s health care bill. 
 
 
 
 View Photo Gallery: The Democrat from Nebraska is announced Tuesday that he won’t seek reelection in 2012. 
 
 His reelection race was expected to be an uphill battle either way, but there also remain questions about the strength of the GOP field that is vying to run against him. The field is led by state Attorney General Jon Bruning and also includes state Sen. Deb Fischer and state Treasurer Don Stenberg, a favorite of the tea party. 
 
 There has been some talk in recent weeks that popular Gov. Dave Heineman (R) might also run, but he has shown little interest. Other possibilities, now that Nelson is out, include members of the state’s all-GOP congressional delegation, particularly Reps. Lee Terry and Jeff Fortenberry. 
 
 It was not clear who might replace Nelson on the Democratic side, as Democrats’ bench in Nebraska is pretty thin. But former senator Bob Kerrey has been mentioned and would instantly give his party a fighting chance in a state where Obama took just 42 percent of the vote. 
 
 Kerrey, who also flirted with a return to the Senate in 2008, said recently that it is “highly unlikely” he would replace Nelson on the ballot. And in a statement to The Fix, he wasn’t elaborating. 
 
 “Ben’s retirement is a huge loss for Nebraska,” Kerrey wrote from a vacation in India. “I am very sad he’s leaving. That is as far as I am going (right now).” 
 
 Businessman Scott Kleeb, the 2008 Democratic nominee in an open seat race against now-Sen. Mike Johanns (R), told The Fix on Tuesday that he “has no interest.” 
 
 Over the last decade, Nelson has carved out one of the most conservative records of any Democrat, often irritating the party’s liberal base by voting with Republicans. 
 
 But when it came to the health care bill, Nelson delivered what many saw as the deciding vote. In return, he also got some concessions, derogatorily referred to as the “Cornhusker Kickback.” Early GOP advertising efforts have focused heavily on this arrangement, which included exempting his home state from paying billions in Medicaid expansion costs. 
 
 Read more on PostPolitics.com 
 
 The Plum Line : Goodbye, Ben Nelson 
 
 The Fix’s 10 best Senate races of 2012
– Nebraska Sen. Ben Nelson won't seek reelection next year, potentially harming Democratic hopes to hold onto the Senate majority, Politico reports. Though Nelson's approval ratings had struggled, they were on the rise this year, thanks in part to $1 million in national Democratic Party advertising. Meanwhile, Republicans spent hundreds of thousands criticizing Nelson's record, focusing on his support for health care reform. Analysts are mixed on the impact of the decision. Politico calls the decision "a serious blow to Democratic efforts to hold onto their majority." The Washington Post suggests the Democrats would have faced "an uphill battle either way," but notes that former Sen. Bob Kerrey could emerge as a candidate and provide hope for the party. At Hot Air, Ed Morrissey figures the decision doesn't change much in red Nebraska. "In a presidential cycle, a credible Republican candidate will be almost certain to replace Nelson, even if Nelson is no longer running."