Story highlights Before Sochi Olympics, predictions of terrorist action were rampant 
 
 Peter Bergen says the Games were unaffected and predictions turned out to be wrong 
 
 He says such forecasts fit into a long history of "sky is falling" warnings 
 
 Bergen: Statements that al Qaeda represents big threat to U.S. now are off base 
 
 "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" is an aphorism attributed to the great baseball player Yogi Berra. 
 
 But one topic where pundits, politicians and prognosticators of every persuasion don't have any problem about making pessimistic predictions is terrorism. 
 
 The Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia, was an Olympic-level example of this. In the lead-up to the Games, the airwaves were filled with glum predictions that Sochi would be the 1972 Munich Olympics on steroids. 
 
 Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas, chairman of the U.S. House Homeland Security Committee, told Fox News, "There's a high degree of probability that something will detonate, something will go off. ... But I do think it's probably, most likely going to happen outside the 'ring of steel' at the Olympic Village." 
 
 Similarly, Michael G. Grimm, co-chair of the House Russian Caucus, issued a press release headlined, "Sochi Olympics Cannot Become a Benghazi Nightmare." The New York Republican warned, "We cannot sweep these threats under the rug, like we did with Benghazi or the warnings from Russia on the Tsarnaev brother behind the Boston Marathon bombing. Each time we fail to recognize these threats, we not only risk the lives of innocent Americans, but appear weaker and vulnerable in the eyes of the enemy." 
 
 Bill Rathburn, who directed security for the 1996 Summer Olympics in Atlanta, in an interview with Yahoo News predicted of Sochi, "It's not a matter of whether there will be some incident, it's just a matter of how bad it's going to be." 
 
 No wonder that two days before the Sochi Olympics, more than half of Americans believed a terrorist attack on the Games was likely, according to a CNN/ORC poll. 
 
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 Now cue up the swarms of "black widows" descending on Sochi to kill themselves along with many Olympic spectators. 
 
 And then the Games were held and ... nothing happened 
 
 It turned out that the most terrifying image from Sochi was the look of disgust on the face of American figure skater Ashley Wagner when she learned of her lower-than-expected score. 
 
 Sochi is only the most recent example of the hyperventilating hyperbole of the doomsday terrorism prognosticators. Because so many folks were caught flat-footed by 9/11, some seem to overcompensate by keeping up a steady drumbeat of dire terror warnings. 
 
 In November, House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Rogers, R-Michigan, told CNN that al Qaeda "poses a bigger threat to attack inside the U.S. right now than it did before 9/11." 
 
 Rogers' statement defies common sense. 
 
 Before 9/11, al Qaeda had an entire county, Afghanistan, as a safe haven; its training camps there churned out thousands of militants every year; it had access to funding substantial enough so that it could spend several hundred thousand dollars on the 9/11 plot. It was a formidable enemy. 
 
 Now al Qaeda's safe haven is long gone; the group hasn't mounted any successful attack in the States since 9/11 or, for that matter, anywhere in the West since the London transportation system bombings in 2005. 
 
 On 9/11, the United States had never used armed drones in combat. Since then, the CIA has launched 370 drone strikes at suspected militant targets in Pakistan. During President Barack Obama's tenure alone, those drone strikes have killed more than 30 of al Qaeda's leaders in Pakistan. 
 
 Not only that: The United States is a much harder target than it was on 9/11. Then there were 16 people on the U.S. "no fly" list. 
 
 Today there are more than 20,000. In 2001, there were 32 Joint Terrorism Task Force "fusion centers," where multiple law enforcement agencies worked together to chase down leads and build terrorism cases. Now there are 103. 
 
 The U.S. intelligence budget also grew dramatically after 9/11. In 2010, the United States spent more than $80 billion on intelligence collection and other covert activities, much of it directed at terrorist groups -- more than three times what the country spent in 1998. 
 
 At the time of the 9/11 attacks, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, the National Counterterrorism Center and the Transportation Security Administration all didn't exist. All these new post-9/11 institutions make it much harder for terrorists to operate in the United States. 
 
 The gloom and doom about terrorism becomes much worse when the specter of terrorists deploying chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear weapons is added to the mix. 
 
 Graham Allison, the respected political scientist and founding dean of Harvard's Kennedy School of Government, published a book in 2004 titled "Nuclear Terrorism, which garnered considerable attention with its prediction that "on the current path, a nuclear terrorist attack on America in the decade ahead is more likely than not." 
 
 Of course, now we are a decade later, and nothing of the sort has happened. 
 
 Indeed, a striking finding of a database of every jihadist terrorism case in the United States since 9/11 maintained by the New America Foundation is that not one of the more than 200 individuals who were indicted or convicted of a jihadist terrorism crime acquired, manufactured or deployed chemical, biological or radiological weapons, let alone a nuclear device. 
 
 It's relatively easy to say the sky is always falling. Indeed, given the human capacity for evil, bad things are, indeed, going to happen. But when the sky doesn't fall, which is much of the time when it comes to terrorism, the doomsday prognosticators are rarely held to account. In any event, they are too busy warning of the next catastrophe. 
 
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 Join us on Facebook/CNNOpinion. ||||| Story highlights The Olympic torch arrives in Sochi after a nearly 35,000-mile journey 
 
 Suspected mastermind of twin bombings in Volgograd is killed, Russian state media report 
 
 57% of Americans think a terror attack on the Sochi Games is likely, a CNN/ORC poll reveals 
 
 Champion U.S. snowboarder Shaun White withdraws from a Sochi event 
 
 With two days to go before the Winter Olympics open in the Russian city of Sochi, more than half of Americans think a terrorist attack on the Games is likely, a poll shows. 
 
 The results of the CNN/ORC poll come a day after U.S. officials said they had specific reasons to worry about security in Russia. 
 
 Meanwhile, Russian state media reported Wednesday that the suspected mastermind of twin bomb attacks in the city of Volgograd was killed in a police operation in the restive North Caucasus republic of Dagestan. 
 
 The man died in a shootout at a house in the town of Izberbash, the official Itar-Tass news agency said. The attacks on Volgograd's public transit system in late December left 34 people dead and about 100 injured -- and sparked wide concern about security in Russia. 
 
 Of those surveyed for the CNN/ORC poll, 57% said a terrorist attack on the Sochi Games was likely. That compares with the 51% who believed before the 1996 Summer Games started in Atlanta that a terrorist act would occur. Sadly, the latter prediction proved true. 
 
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 The survey of more than 1,000 Americans, carried out on Friday and Sunday, also revealed some wider negative views about Russia and its leader, President Vladimir Putin. 
 
 It found that 54% have an unfavorable view of Putin, making him one of the least popular foreign leaders among Americans. 
 
 Currently, 55% of those polled also have an unfavorable view of Russia -- representing a downward turn from 2011, when more than half those surveyed viewed the country favorably. 
 
 A controversial "anti-gay propaganda" law passed by Russian lawmakers last summer may be a factor in that shift. 
 
 Only 13% of Americans think the United States should have a law similar to the one in Russia -- which makes it illegal to make positive comments about gays and lesbians within children's earshot -- with 86% opposed, the survey indicated. 
 
 Supporters of gay rights group All Out are staging events Wednesday in 20 cities across 14 countries to call on Olympic sponsors to denounce Russia's anti-gay laws. New York, London and St. Petersburg, Russia, are among the cities where demonstrators will gather. 
 
 By contrast, a survey by Russia's independent Levada Center found that 53% of Russians think their country did "the right thing" by bidding to hold the Sochi Olympics, the state-run RIA Novosti news agency reported. 
 
 But only about a third said Russia should seek to hold the Summer Games as well, compared with 43% who disliked the idea, the survey indicated. Respondents highlighted concerns about opportunities for graft and corruption. 
 
 Olympic torch reaches Sochi 
 
 Concerns about security, human rights issues and the readiness of Sochi accommodations have dogged media coverage leading up to the Games. 
 
 But for many Russians, the chance to hold the Olympics for only the second time on Russian soil is a source of great pride. 
 
 The Olympic torch arrived in Sochi on Wednesday, the culmination of a 123-day relay that has seen it cover nearly 35,000 miles (56,000 kilometers), held aloft by some 14,000 people. 
 
 Along the way, it has been carried to the top of Europe's tallest mountain, Mount Elbrus, and to the bottom of the world's biggest freshwater lake, Lake Baikal in Siberia. 
 
 Back in November, the torch was also taken on its first spacewalk, after blasting off for the International Space Station from Russia's Baikonur cosmodrome. Two cosmonauts carried the torch -- unlit for safety reasons -- through the space station and outside in space. 
 
 Having reached Sochi, it will be used to light the cauldron in the opening ceremony Friday evening. 
 
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 Then, Russian authorities hope, the focus should shift to the feats of sporting excellence performed by athletes from around the world. 
 
 One U.S. medal hopeful, two-time Olympic gold medalist Shaun White, has announced he is withdrawing from the slopestyle competition, according to the official Sochi 2014 website. The champion snowboarder said he wants to focus on winning a gold medal in the halfpipe competition. 
 
 Just over half of Americans say it is important to them that the United States wins more medals than any other country, according to the CNN/ORC poll. 
 
 The Levada Center poll of Russians found that 57% expect the host country to rank in the top three in the overall medal count, RIA Novosti said. 
 
 Specific threats 
 
 Russia has worked hard to reassure the athletes, officials and spectators converging on Sochi that they will be kept safe. 
 
 A "ring of steel" has been in place around the Black Sea resort city for almost a month. 
 
 Russian security forces have also cracked down on suspected militants in Dagestan and elsewhere in recent weeks, after the December bombings in Volgograd. 
 
 But not everyone is convinced. 
 
 Speaking at a House Intelligence Committee hearing Tuesday, Matthew Olsen, director of the National Counterterrorism Center, highlighted concern about the Games and whether Muslim fundamentalists in disputed regions of Russia -- or other groups -- could launch deadly attacks on selected targets. 
 
 "There are a number of specific threats of varying degrees of credibility that we're tracking," he said. "And we're working very closely with the Russians and with other partners to monitor any threats we see and to disrupt those." 
 
 Officials in Austria said Tuesday that two female members of its Winter Olympics team had received a threat. 
 
 Greater danger outside Sochi? 
 
 Olsen said the primary threat came from the Caucasus Emirate, or Imarat Kavkaz, which he described as probably the most prominent terror group in Russia. 
 
 "It's made its intent clear to seek to carry out attacks in the runup to the Games," he said. 
 
 "We think the greater danger from a terrorist perspective is in potential for attacks to occur outside of the actual venues for the Games themselves, in the area surrounding Sochi or outside of Sochi in the region." 
 
 U.S. President Barack Obama was briefed Tuesday on U.S. efforts to support security in Sochi. 
 
 "He was assured by his team that they are taking all appropriate steps regarding the safety of Americans. He directed them to continue to work closely with the Russian government and other partners toward a secure and successful Sochi Games, and to review carefully and act on any new information that might affect the security of the Games," a White House statement said.
– Hey remember that time, lo those many weeks ago, when most Americans believed a terror attack would hit the Sochi Olympics? You could hardly blame them; there were ominous reports of approaching black widows and evacuation plans as important people predicted doom. But a funny thing happened: Nothing. "It turned out that the most terrifying image from Sochi was the look of disgust" on Ashley Wagner's face, observes CNN security analyst Peter Bergen. It was just the latest example "of hyperventilating hyperbole of the doomsday terrorism prognosticators." In November, GOP Rep. Mike Rogers said al-Qaeda "poses a bigger threat" than before 9/11, a statement Bergen believes "defies common sense." The US has decimated al-Qaeda, while dramatically improving American security and intelligence capabilities. A much-discussed 2004 book argued that "a nuclear attack on America in the decade ahead is more likely than not." Looks like "not" won out. "It's relatively easy to say the sky is always falling," Bergen writes, because when it doesn't, "doomsday prognosticators are rarely held to account. … they are too busy warning of the next catastrophe." Click for his full column.