Topics: Opening Shot 
 
 It’s very, very doubtful that Barack Obama is really running 13 points ahead of Mitt Romney, as a new Bloomberg poll shows. With so many outlets conducting surveys so frequently these days, the occasional funny result is inevitable. Remember when Barack Obama’s approval rating seemed to crash overnight a few months ago? That was what one CBS/New York Times poll found, but it quickly proved to be an aberration, with other outlets putting his approval score where it’s been for much of his presidency, just under 50 percent. 
 
 We may end up looking back at the new Bloomberg numbers the same way. The poll puts Obama at 53 percent and Romney at 40, and gives Obama a 53 percent job approval score. Compare that with what Real Clear Politics’ average of all polls finds: an Obama approval rating of 47.9 percent and an Obama horse-race lead of 2.1 points, 46.5 to 44.4 percent. If other polls in the coming days and weeks show a similar, sudden bulge for Obama, then we can say that Bloomberg was the first to spot a trend. Until and unless that happens, though, its overall findings could just as easily be an outlier. 
 
 That said, the poll is still something of an antidote to the consensus that has sprung up recently in the political world about the supposedly flailing state of Obama’s reelection efforts. Even if Obama isn’t actually ahead by 13 points, there’s still plenty of evidence that he’s faring better than an incumbent president should under the current economic conditions. His approval rating, as political scientists John Sides and Lynn Vavreck have explained, continues to overperform a forecasting model that takes into account 60 years of data on the economy and presidential approval. This, in turn, translates into a better-than-expected showing in head-to-heads with Romney. 
 
 Sides and Vavreck point to a few possible explanations for this phenomenon, including Obama’s personal likability. A bigger factor is probably the uniquely catastrophic conditions that Obama inherited – an economy that was free-falling as he took the oath of office. We aren’t dealing with a recession that started on Obama’s watch or that slowly crept up with no one really noticing. There was a specific, traumatic starting point to the economic slump that the country is now in, and polls continue to show that voters remember who was – and wasn’t – president when it happened. The Bloomberg poll buttresses this point, with 45 percent of respondents saying they’re better off now than they were four years ago, compared to 36 percent who say they’re worse off – even as 62 percent say the country is heading in the wrong direction and only 31 percent say it’s going in the right direction. This is the complicated mix of attitudes that Obama is trying to tap into – frustration and anxiety over where the country is now, but a recognition that the problems are much bigger than one president. In this sense, the comment of one voter polled by Bloomberg has to be encouraging for the White House: “Obama is the lesser of two evils,” says Rosean Smith, 38, an independent voter from Columbus, Ohio, who says Obama faced unrealistic expectations on the economy. “He was basically handed a sick drug baby and expected to make a genius out of it overnight.” Bloomberg’s poll also suggests that Romney’s primary season image problem has returned, with just 39 percent viewing him favorably and 55 percent saying he’s more out of touch than Obama with average Americans. Take this with a grain of salt; if the overall margin in the poll is deceptively favorable for Obama, the rest of the data probably will be too. But again, even if Romney isn’t down 13 points, the poll is still another piece of evidence that Romney’s basic strategy – “I’m not Obama, and that’s good enough” – might be insufficient. 
 
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 Close ||||| President Barack Obama disembarks Air Force One upon his arrival at Joplin Regional Airport in Joplin, on May 21, 2012. 
 
 President Barack Obama disembarks Air Force One upon his arrival at Joplin Regional Airport in Joplin, on May 21, 2012. Close 
 
 Barack Obama has opened a significant lead over Mitt Romney in a Bloomberg National Poll that reflects the presumed Republican nominee’s weaknesses more than the president’s strengths. 
 
 Obama leads Romney 53 percent to 40 percent among likely voters, even as the public gives him low marks on handling the economy and the deficit, and six in 10 say the nation is headed down the wrong track, according to the poll conducted June 15- 18. 
 
 The survey shows Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, has yet to repair the damage done to his image during the Republican primary. Thirty-nine percent of Americans view him favorably, about the same as when he announced his presidential candidacy last June, while 48 percent see him unfavorably -- a 17-percentage point jump during a nomination fight dominated by attacks ads. A majority of likely voters, 55 percent, view him as more out of touch with average Americans compared with 36 percent who say the president is more out of touch. 
 
 Taken together, the results suggest an unsettled political environment for both Obama and Romney five months from the November election, with voters choosing for now to stick with a president they say is flawed rather than backing a challenger they regard as undefined and disconnected. 
 
 Importance of Turnout 
 
 “You can see in these data how important turnout will be,” says J. Ann Selzer of Des Moines, Iowa-based Selzer & Co. who directed the poll. “Those most enthusiastic about the election are more supportive of Romney, but Obama’s voters are more locked into their candidate than Romney’s. Building resolve to vote and making the vote stick is job one, and both candidates face obstacles toward getting that done.” 
 
 The presidential race is roughly tied among the most enthusiastic voters, 49 percent of whom back Romney compared with 48 percent for Obama. Still, Romney inspires far less enthusiasm even among his supporters than does Obama, with 35 percent of Romney backers saying their support for him is “very strong,” compared with 51 percent of Obama backers who say so. 
 
 “I would rather choose to vote for someone else, but there’s no one but Obama,” says John Sunde, a 57-year-old Verizon central office technician from Brentwood, New York, when asked which candidate would get his vote. “He hasn’t fulfilled a lot of his campaign promises, but I would vote for him anyway because Romney would be extremely destructive for this country.” 
 
 Could Do Worse 
 
 Sunde, an independent, gives Obama low grades for dealing with the economy yet says Romney would do worse. “His perspective is you just let the free market take care of everything, and we’ll go right down the toilet drain, and everything -- all the jobs -- will go straight to Asia,” Sunde says of Romney. 
 
 The poll of 1,002 adults has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points for the full sample. Questions asked of the 734 likely voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points. Its findings are at odds with other recent national surveys that have found the two candidates tied or shown a slight advantage for Obama or Romney. 
 
 Poll Details 
 
 Thirty-eight percent of those surveyed in Bloomberg’s poll say they consider themselves Democrats or independents who lean that way and 33 percent consider themselves Republicans or independents who lean Republican, a 5-point Democratic advantage. In 2008, the presidential election exit polls showed the Democrats with a 7-point advantage. 
 
 The Democratic advantage in the Washington Post’s May poll sample was 10 points, while the one in the New York Times’ April survey was 8 points and the Wall Street Journal’s May poll was 7 points. 
 
 In the Bloomberg Poll, 53 percent of those surveyed were women and 67 percent were white, in line with other national polls. Obama fares better among white voters than he does in other surveys, drawing support from 43 percent compared with 50 percent backing Romney. 
 
 Beyond Romney’s low favorability ratings, the poll reflects perceived weaknesses for the Republican challenger both in style and substance. Only 31 percent of likely voters say they’d want to sit next to Romney on a long airplane flight, compared with 57 percent who prefer Obama as a seat mate. 
 
 Romney Weak Spots 
 
 About a third of likely voters rate Romney best at understanding their problems and struggles, and dealing with world leaders, while Obama draws majorities on both. And just 34 percent of respondents prefer Romney to Obama in appearing regularly on their TV and computer screens for the next four years; the president is the pick of 54 percent. Obama’s favorability ratings are the reverse of Romney’s, with 55 percent of Americans viewing the president positively, while 42 percent don’t. 
 
 In a bad sign for Obama, a much smaller plurality, 48 percent, of likely voters say he would be best at getting the economy going, while 43 percent say Romney would do better. 
 
 Fifty-three percent of Americans approve of the job Obama is doing in the White House -- the first time since March 2011 that he has broken the historic 50 percent threshold for U.S. presidents who have won re-election; 44 percent disapprove of his service. 
 
 His performance rating on creating jobs -- 46 percent approve, while 48 percent disapprove -- matches its high mark in July 2010, and has risen 10 points from his low point in September 2011. A plurality of 45 percent of Americans identify jobs and unemployment as the “most important issue” facing the country. 
 
 Obama Warning Signs 
 
 More troubling for Obama’s re-election bid, just 31 percent say the nation is headed in the right direction compared with 62 percent who say it’s on the wrong track. 
 
 On the economy, just 43 percent approve of Obama’s performance, compared with 53 who disapprove. He fares even more poorly on the budget deficit, where 60 percent disapprove of the job he’s doing compared with 32 percent who approve. 
 
 “Obama is the lesser of two evils,” says Rosean Smith, 38, an independent voter from Columbus, Ohio, who says Obama faced unrealistic expectations on the economy. “He was basically handed a sick drug baby and expected to make a genius out of it overnight.” 
 
 Smith, a graduate student and mother of six who says she has applied for 80 jobs in the last eight months and landed none, says while Obama is “way in over his head” on the economy, she doesn’t trust Romney to do better. 
 
 Best Background 
 
 The poll also undercuts Romney’s central argument for his candidacy, suggesting that his background as a private-equity executive isn’t seen by voters as his greatest strength. Asked to name the most important qualification on Romney’s resume, a plurality of 41 percent cite his experience as governor of Massachusetts, while 34 percent say it’s his business experience at the Boston-based firm Bain Capital LLC. 
 
 Jeff Angleton, a 40-year-old construction business owner in Haxtun, Colorado, who is backing Romney, says he has had to fire 27 of the 52 people who work at his company because of lack of projects. Angleton, an independent, says he is “scared” of what the future holds if Obama stays in office, though not confident that things will get better if Romney takes the White House. 
 
 “I think the guy is a little bit out of touch, because he has too much money to understand what a guy like me deals with,” Angleton says of Romney. 
 
 Creating Jobs 
 
 Likely voters are split over whether Romney’s business experience made him better-prepared to create jobs as president, with 49 percent saying it doesn’t and 45 percent saying it does. 
 
 They are also divided on whether it’s a good idea to elect a corporate chief executive officer as president, with 44 saying it is while 40 percent say it’s not. 
 
 Asked how they plan to vote for Congress, 48 percent of likely voters say they’d choose a Democrat compared with 41 percent who would back a Republican. The Democratic Party also scores better than its counterpart, with 50 percent of Americans viewing it favorably while 43 percent don’t. The Republican Party’s favorability rating drops 3 percentage points from Bloomberg’s March poll to 41 percent, while its unfavorability stands at 50 percent. 
 
 The public also has a much rosier view of the last Democratic president than it does the last Republican. Former President Bill Clinton is viewed favorably by 69 percent and unfavorably by 25 percent, while former President George W. Bush is seen favorably by 44 percent compared with 51 percent who view him negatively. 
 
 Donald Trump, who stood beside Romney at a Las Vegas fundraiser last month and says he’s still skeptical about the authenticity of Obama’s U.S. birth certificate, is seen favorably by 33 percent. Fifty-five percent have an unfavorable view of the real estate magnate and reality TV star who flirted with his own presidential run before backing the presumptive Republican nominee. 
 
 To contact the reporter on this story: Julie Hirschfeld Davis in Washington at or Jdavis159@bloomberg.net. 
 
 To contact the editor responsible for this story: Jeanne Cummings at jcummings21@bloomberg.net ||||| A plurality of Americans now say they are better off than they were when President Barack Obama was inaugurated, providing a surprising lift to Obama’s re- election campaign despite troublesome economic news. 
 
 Forty-five percent of those surveyed in a Bloomberg National Poll say they are better off than at the beginning of 2009 compared with 36 percent who say they are worse off. In March, poll respondents split almost evenly on that question after having been decidedly negative since the aftermath of the worst recession in seven decades. 
 
 “I’m just tired of the doom and gloom,” says Jim Seeley, 52, a mortgage banker in Traverse City, Michigan, and a poll respondent, in a follow-up interview. “I think it’s looking better. People just need to stay positive.” 
 
 The poll, conducted June 15-18, contains more unlikely cheer for the president, with larger numbers of respondents saying their household income is higher than a year ago. While 44 percent say they are treading water, the better off outnumbered the worse off by 28 percent to 22 percent. 
 
 The share saying they are making substantial purchases they had been delaying, dining out more often, or taking deferred vacations all rose compared with March 2011. Seeley and his wife are among them. Earlier this year, the couple went on a seven- day cruise in the Gulf of Mexico, joining 27 percent of respondents who say they are taking postponed trips compared with 20 percent in March 2011. 
 
 Clash With Data 
 
 The poll of 1,002 U.S. adults was conducted for Bloomberg News by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, Iowa. The results have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. 
 
 The poll’s findings of respondents’ brightening assessments of how they’re doing are at odds with recent data. The latest figures on industrial production, consumer confidence, initial jobless claims and retail sales all showed a weakening economy. Since the last Bloomberg National Poll in March, the Standard and Poor’s 500 Index is down about 1 percent. 
 
 About the only recent positive news for consumers has been a steady two-month decline in gasoline prices. Since peaking at $3.94 a gallon on April 5, regular unleaded gasoline has fallen to $3.50, according to AAA. 
 
 “Even as the market signals continuing softness in the economy, gloom at the personal level seems to have bottomed out,” says J. Ann Selzer, who directs the Bloomberg poll. 
 
 Wall Street Banks 
 
 There are hints of unease in the findings: 32 percent of Americans say they’re hopeful about improvement in the economy, down from 37 percent in March. And 19 percent say they’re fearful, compared with 17 percent three months ago. 
 
 Major Wall Street banks last week underscored the economy’s subpar outlook. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) cut its second-quarter tracking estimate for growth to 1.6 percent from 1.8 percent. Morgan Stanley (MS) sliced its 2012 estimate to 2 percent from 2.3 percent and said the economy likely would slow further in 2013. 
 
 Even with the run of bad reports, Americans say they prefer Obama’s economic vision to that of his presumptive Republican rival, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, by a margin of 49 percent to 33 percent. That finding reflects a 7-percentage- point gain for Obama since March and an equal loss for his opponent, identified then as “Republicans” and in this survey as Romney. 
 
 “You don’t just trust the private sector to do the right thing,” says Chris Howell, 23, who works at a nonprofit organization in West Chester, Pennsylvania. Obama’s policies are better suited to providing “long-term solutions” for the economy’s problems, he added. 
 
 ‘Hatchet Job’ 
 
 Obama gets poor marks from some respondents for his handling of the nation’s economic situation. 
 
 “He’s done a hatchet job on the economy,” says Larry Wilson, 49, a production supervisor at a corrugated box maker in Lancaster, Pennsylvania. 
 
 Wilson complains that prices are outstripping his salary and that the president is stifling business with excessive regulation. He’s anticipating a Romney presidency that will repair the damage. 
 
 “I expect him to do something similar to what Reagan did: exude some confidence in the American people, not government,” Wilson says. 
 
 The public also has flip-flopped on its view of the appropriate government role in the economy since the March 2011 Bloomberg poll. 
 
 New Focus 
 
 Fifteen months ago, as congressional Republicans pressed the White House to agree to deep budget cuts, a majority of poll respondents echoed the party’s argument that government should focus on deficit-cutting. Now that the presidential choice has narrowed to Obama or Romney, Americans by a margin of 51 percent to 43 percent are endorsing the administration’s call to invest in infrastructure and alternative energy projects to boost hiring. 
 
 “I’m a Keynesian,” says Dale Phillips, 60, a management consultant in Houston. “Government does play a role.” 
 
 Phillips is among those counting themselves better off. His six-figure salary has risen about 15 percent since the recession’s depths in early 2009. 
 
 The improving public mood remains precarious and, in some cases, should be characterized as less awful rather than better. A plurality of poll respondents still expect American children to have a lower standard of living than their parents do. Yet the 45 percent to 28 percent margin is narrower than a year ago, when 55 percent expected the next generation’s living standards to drop compared with only 23 percent who retained their faith in the American Dream. 
 
 Home Prices 
 
 And amid indications that the decline in housing prices may be at or near an end, 14 percent of respondents say the market value of their home increased in the past year compared with 33 percent who say it declined. The last time that question was asked, in December 2009, only 8 percent said their home’s value had increased. 
 
 Americans also split about evenly over changes in their overall sense of financial security in the past year, with the largest share, 47 percent, reporting no change. 
 
 “I’m hopeful for improvement, but I temper that with pragmatism,” says Catherine Lahey, 28, a sports marketing executive in DeLand, Florida. 
 
 After 40 consecutive months of a jobless rate higher than 8 percent, Americans in general, too, are slowly growing less anxious about employment. Those reporting improved job security for people in their household rose to 19 percent, still less than the 22 percent saying their hold on employment is shakier. 
 
 That divide reflected an improvement from December 2009, when those who said their job security was worsening outweighed those feeling more secure 28 percent to 7 percent. 
 
 “I started working full time and making more money,” says Nathan Blubaugh, 25, a mental health counselor in Media, Pennsylvania. “Things are getting better. They’re not getting better quickly, but they’re getting better.” 
 
 To contact the reporter on this story: David J. Lynch in Washington at dlynch27@bloomberg.net 
 
 To contact the editor responsible for this story: Jeanne Cummings at jcummings21@bloomberg.net
– The political world is buzzing today over a new Bloomberg poll that shows Barack Obama clobbering Mitt Romney by a whopping 53% to 40% margin. This comes despite voters widely disapproving of Obama's handling of the economy—only 43% approve, while 53% disapprove. So why is Obama winning? Because voters just plain don't like Romney. Only 39% view him favorably, and 55% say he is more "out of touch," with voters. A plurality also say they're better off now than four years ago. Forty-five percent say they're better off, to only 36% who say they're worse off. "I'm just tired of the doom and gloom," says one independent voter. The pollsters point out, however, that the finding runs counter to recent economic indicators. Indeed, the whole poll is such an outlier that it's best taken with "a big grain of salt," Steve Kornacki of Salon warns. Obama probably isn't actually up by 13 points, writes Kornacki, but the poll is evidence that he's faring better than an incumbent in this economy normally would. Click for his full column.