For more than a decade, the annual Marist poll on abortion has found that the overwhelming majority of Americans – usually three-quarters or more – want abortion restricted to, at most, the first three months of pregnancy.Sponsored by the Knights of Columbus, this annual survey has also highlighted the following fact: Using polling questions that measure the labels Americans choose for Read More ||||| There are a lot of predictions floating around out there about who will win the presidential election on Tuesday. So why not round them all up in one place? 
 
 
 
 Place your bets, folks. 
 
 Here are the electoral vote predictions from various modelers, political scientists and pundits from around the Internet. All predictions are as of Monday evening. And yes, this will be a fun thread to revisit the day after the election: 
 
 Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight: Obama 332, Romney 203. This appears to be the most likely scenario in Silver's model, which now gives Obama a 91 percent chance of winning and shows Florida as basically a tossup. "In order for Mr. Romney to win the Electoral College, a large number of polls, across these states and others, would have to be in error, perhaps because they overestimated Democratic turnout.," Silver writes. 
 
 Intrade: Obama 303, Romney 235. The betting markets also give Obama a 70 percent chance of winning as of Tuesday morning. The main difference from Silver's model is that Intrade gives Romney a fairly strong chance (65 percent) of winning Florida. 
 
 Washington Post's Outlook contest: There are a slew of different predictions here. Chris Cillizza of the Fix predicts a narrow 277-261 Obama win. Andrew Beyer, our horse-racing columnist, predicts a 284-254 Romney win. And Jason Samenow of the excellent Capital Weather Gang predicts a 281-257 Obama victory. 
 
 Sam Wang, Princeton Election Consortium: Obama 303, Romney 235. "In terms of EV or the Meta-margin, [Obama has] made up just about half the ground he ceded to Romney after Debate #1." 
 
 Drew Linzer, Emory University: Obama 326, Romney 212. "The accuracy of my election forecasts depend on the accuracy of the presidential polls," Linzer writes. "As such, a major concern heading into Election Day is the possibility that polling firms, out of fear of being wrong, are looking at the results of other published surveys and weighting or adjusting their own results to match." 
 
 Michael Barone, The Examiner: Romney 315, Obama 223. "Both national and target state polls show that independents, voters who don't identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans, break for Romney." 
 
 Ezra Klein, The Washington Post: Obama 290, Romney 248. "I have a simple rule when predicting presidential elections: The polls, taken together, are typically pretty accurate. Systemic problems, while possible, aren’t likely." 
 
 Larry Sabato, UVA Center for Politics: Obama 290, Romney 248. "Who could have imagined that a Frankenstorm would act as a circuit-breaker on the Republican’s campaign, blowing Romney off center stage for three critical days in the campaign’s last week, while enabling Obama to dominate as presidential comforter-in-chief, assisted by his new bipartisan best friend, Gov. Chris Christie (R)?" 
 
 Josh Putnam, Davidson College: Obama 332, Romney 206. "Everything above is based on a graduated weighted average of polls in each state conducted in 2012," Putnam wrote in explaining his methodology. "The weighting is based on how old a poll is. The older the poll is the more it is discounted. The most recent poll is given full weight." 
 
 Jay Cost, Weekly Standard: Romney victory. "For two reasons," Cost writes. "(1) Romney leads among voters on trust to get the economy going again. (2) Romney leads among independents." 
 
 Philip Klein, The Examiner: Obama 277, Romney 261. "I’ve given Romney the states that are essentially tied, in which he’s led in at least some recent polls. But in states where Romney has trailed in nearly all polls, and in some cases by a comfortable margin, I’m giving them to Obama." 
 
 Ross Douthat, New York Times: Obama 271, Romney 267. " In general, I think that the political class tends to overestimate the power of the Hispanic bloc, whose influence is growing more slowly than many pundits and strategists acknowledge. In general, I think that the political class tends to overestimate swing voters’ sympathy for strident social liberalism, and to imagine a lockstep support for legal abortion among female voters that doesn’t actually exist." 
 
 Simon Jackman, Stanford University: Obama 332, Romney 206. "The model uses poll data (and house effect corrections) to generate estimates of Obama and Romney levels of support in the states (and at the national level). The modeling is done simultaneously: if you will, there are up to 52 latent quantities (e.g., Obama support in 50 states, the District of Columbia, plus the national level) moving over time, with polls giving us (noisy) snapshots as to where the latent targets might be on any given day." 
 
 Dave Weigel, Slate: Romney 276, Obama 262. He originally had Romney winning Ohio. But, as he explained yesterday, he's not so confident about that anymore: "That was 48 hours ago. Since then, I've grown more bearish on the Republicans in Ohio, as the final reliable newspaper and college polls arrive. And since then I've spent lots of time with different Ohio voter groups, and been surprised by the power of the Ds. So, if you like, you can unskew the prediction." 
 
 Kenneth Bickers, University of Colorado and Kevin Berry, CU-Denver: Romney 330, Obama 208. "While many election forecast models are based on the popular vote, the model developed by Bickers and Berry is based on the Electoral College and is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions." (This model was last updated in October.) 
 
 Jamelle Bouie, The American Prospect: Obama 303, Romney 235. "[I]f Obama wins on Tuesday, the political science on debates will have won out; they can shift the short-term situation, but they don’t fundamentally change the direction of an election." 
 
 George Will, The Washington Post: Romney 321, Obama 217. " I guess the wild card in what I've projected is I'm projecting Minnesota to go for Romney. Now, that's the only state in the union, because Mondale held it -- native son Mondale held it when Romney was -- when Reagan was getting 49 states -- the only state that's voted Democratic in nine consecutive elections. But this year, there's a marriage amendment on the ballot that will bring out the evangelicals and I think could make the difference." 
 
 Ben Domenech, The Transom: Romney 278, Obama 260. "In sum, I see the bottom slipping out from under Obama’s feet, and a campaign hoping to hold on just long enough to salvage a slim victory, one where he is almost certain to lose the popular vote. He is underperforming among whites and independents, and particularly among those likeliest to vote. I have never believed in running the prevent defense, and Obama has been running it for months." 
 
 Markos Moulitsas: Obama 332, Romney 206. "Currently, national polling assumes a big dropoff from registered voters to likely voters. I don't believe that'll be the case, and we're certainly not seeing it in the early vote—Democratic turnout is up. And the RV models have been more accurate historically." 
 
 Karl Rove: Romney 285, Obama 253. He's got Romney winning Ohio, Iowa, Virginia, Colorado, and Florida. 
 
 Xu Cheng, Moodys' Analytics: Obama 303, Romney 235. Note that this prediction was made back in February: "This prediction is tied to the Moody’s Analytics current baseline forecast for U.S. growth, which assumes that most states will continue to recover at slow to moderate speeds." 
 
 James Pethokoukis: Romney 301, Obama 227. "Many pollsters are not catching the stratospheric GOP enthusiasm, particularly among voters of faith, in voting for Romney and Paul Ryan — not just against Obama and Joe Biden. In this way, the Bush-Kerry parallel from 2004 does not hold up" 
 
 Joe Trippi, Democratic consultant, Obama 303, Romney 235. Trippi sent in his by e-mail--he's going with these states. 
 
 Dick Morris, FoxNews: Romney 325, Obama 213. "It will be the biggest surprise in recent American political history," Morris said. "It will rekindle the whole question on why the media played this race as a nailbiter where in fact Romney’s going to win by quite a bit." 
 
 Jim Cramer, CNBC: Obama 440, Romney 98. Here's a tweet from Cramer: "No one is going to recall the guy who picks Obama by 10 electorals if it turns out to be 150 margin. Believe me." 
 
 Dean Chambers, UnskewedPolls.com: Romney 275, Obama 263. "Many others in the media project very favorable maps and projections for Obama but those doing so fail to realize or accept how heavily-skewed polls distort any average or analysis that relies on them." 
 
 A ton of predictions from CNN's pundits. You can see them all here. Paul Begala thinks Obama will win 297-241. Ari Fleischer thinks Romney will win with "minimum 271 EVs." And so on. 
 
 Did we miss any notable predictions? Let us know. And be sure to add yours in comments. 
 
 Update: We've been adding new predictions as they come in. ||||| Mitt Romney has always had difficulty drawing a winning Electoral College hand. Even during his best period of polling, in the week or two after the first presidential debate in Denver, he never quite pulled ahead in the polling averages in Ohio and other states that would allow him to secure 270 electoral votes. 
 
 But the most recent set of polls suggest another problem for Mr. Romney, whose momentum in the polls stalled out in mid-October. Instead, it is President Obama who is making gains. 
 
 Among 12 national polls published on Monday, Mr. Obama led by an average of 1.6 percentage points. Perhaps more important is the trend in the surveys. On average, Mr. Obama gained 1.5 percentage points from the prior edition of the same polls, improving his standing in nine of the surveys while losing ground in just one. 
 
 Because these surveys had large sample sizes, the trend is both statistically and practically meaningful. Whether because of Hurricane Sandy, the relatively good economic news of late, or other factors, Mr. Obama appears to have gained ground in the closing days of the race. 
 
 
 
 The national polls now range from showing a 1-point lead for Mr. Romney to slightly more than a 4-point advantage for Mr. Obama. The FiveThirtyEight forecast of the national popular vote is within this range, projecting Mr. Obama’s most likely margin of victory to be two or three percentage points, approximating the margin that George W. Bush achieved in defeating John Kerry in 2004. 
 
 Averaging polls together increases their sample size — making them much more powerful statistically than any one poll taken alone. But the errors in the polls are sometimes correlated, meaning there are years when most of them miss in the same direction. Mr. Romney remains close enough to Mr. Obama that he could fairly easily win the popular vote if there is such an error in Mr. Obama’s favor this year. 
 
 Mr. Romney’s chances are less, however, of winning the Electoral College. The large majority of polls in battleground states over the past three days have shown leads for Mr. Obama. On Monday, for example, 19 battleground state polls found leads for Mr. Obama, as compared with just three for Mr. Romney. 
 
 Ohio remains the largest problem for Mr. Romney, where he has been behind in most polls all year. Mr. Romney might ordinarily take some solace in the fact that Ohio is slightly Republican-leaning, but the auto bailout may have changed its character this year, as there is evidence that Mr. Obama is performing more strongly with working-class voters in Ohio than he is elsewhere in the country. 
 
 Mr. Obama could secure the Electoral College by winning Wisconsin, Nevada and Pennsylvania, along with Ohio. 
 
 A win for Mr. Romney in Wisconsin would now qualify as a substantial upset. He has not led in a poll there since August, and an increasing number of surveys there instead show Mr. Obama five or more points ahead. 
 
 Mr. Obama’s margins have been narrower in Nevada, but Mr. Romney has a different type of problem there: perhaps 70 percent of the state has already voted, and Democrats have locked in roughly a 7-point advantage over Republicans from the vote so far. This margin is down for Democrats from 2008, but Mr. Romney would nevertheless need an exceptional turnout on Tuesday to make up enough ground. 
 
 This has led Mr. Romney to make a last-minute play for Pennsylvania, and there is some evidence that the state has tightened slightly. But the gains for Mr. Romney may be too little and too late, or they may have been counteracted by a national trend toward Mr. Obama. With the exception of one Republican polling firm, public polls of the state still have Mr. Obama leading by three to nine percentage points. 
 
 Moreover, Mr. Obama has a number of backup options were he to lose one or more of these states. In Iowa, Mr. Obama leads by about three percentage points in the average of polls, and by a similar margin in New Hampshire. Recent polls also suggest movement toward Mr. Obama in Colorado and Virginia, and he now appears to be favored in each one. 
 
 Florida remains too close to call. The FiveThirtyEight forecast has the race there within two-tenths of a percentage point, which would be close enough to trigger an automatic recount. 
 
 Only in North Carolina, among the battleground states, has Mr. Romney had a reasonably consistent polling edge over the final week of the campaign. 
 
 If the national popular vote winds up roughly tied, instead of favoring Mr. Obama by two points or so, then Mr. Romney could claw back to win Florida, Colorado and Virginia, and perhaps Iowa and New Hampshire. But Mr. Obama’s lead in Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada and Pennsylvania is clear enough to withstand some underperformance in the polls, and his margins in the polling averages there have converted into a victory on election night a very high percentage of the time historically. 
 
 In order for Mr. Romney to win the Electoral College, a large number of polls, across these states and others, would have to be in error, perhaps because they overestimated Democratic turnout. It’s this possibility, more than the chance of a successful hail-mary in a state like Pennsylvania, that accounts for most of Mr. Romney’s remaining chances of winning the Electoral College. 
 
 There is also the chance that Mr. Obama could finish toward the higher end of the polling range in most states. If Mr. Obama has gained a point or two nationally because of Hurricane Sandy or other factors, then polls taken before it may underestimate his standing in the individual states as well. 
 
 The FiveThirtyEight forecast accounts for this possibility through its trendline adjustment, which is why our forecasts now are slightly more optimistic for Mr. Obama in some states than a simple average of polls. Had there been evidence of late movement toward Mr. Romney, the trendline adjustment would instead have worked in his favor. 
 
 But Mr. Romney’s chances of winning the Electoral College have slipped, and are now only about 8 percent according to the forecast model — down from about 30 percent 10 days ago. 
 
 The most notable recent case of a candidate substantially beating his polls on Election Day came in 1980, when national surveys had Ronald Reagan only two or three points ahead of Jimmy Carter, and he won in a landslide instead. That year is not comparable to this one in many respects: the economy is much better now, there is not a major third-party candidate in the race, and Mr. Obama’s approval ratings are about 50 percent rather than 35 percent for Mr. Carter. And in 1980, Mr. Reagan had late momentum following the presidential debate that year, whereas this year the momentum seems to favor Mr. Obama. 
 
 All of this leaves Mr. Romney drawing to an inside straight. I hope you’ll excuse the cliché, but it’s appropriate here: in poker, making an inside straight requires you to catch one of 4 cards out of 48 remaining in the deck, the chances of which are about 8 percent. Those are now about Mr. Romney’s chances of winning the Electoral College, according to the FiveThirtyEight forecast. 
 
 As any poker player knows, those 8 percent chances do come up once in a while. If it happens this year, then a lot of polling firms will have to re-examine their assumptions — and we will have to re-examine ours about how trustworthy the polls are. But the odds are that Mr. Obama will win another term.
– It's Election Day—a day of reckoning not only for the candidates, but for America's pundits, including one recent lightning rod named Nate Silver. Silver's final prediction: President Obama has a 91.6% shot at winning, to Romney's 8.4%, though he emphasizes he expects a close contest. But the momentum has lately been in Obama's favor, and 19 battleground state polls yesterday showed Obama in the lead, while Mitt Romney led in just three, Silver writes in the New York Times. Silver sees Obama winning 314.6 electoral votes to Romney's 223.4, and believes the popular vote margin will be similar to George Bush's over John Kerry: two or three percentage points. Elsewhere in crystal-ball land, via the Washington Post: RealClearPolitics puts Obama up 48.8% to Romney's 48.1%; it sees Obama winning 303 electoral votes to 235 for Romney Intrade gives Obama a 72% chance of victory to Romney's 28% Jim Cramer at CNBC: Obama 440, Romney 98 (a bit of an outlier) Ross Douthat at the New York Times: Obama 277, Romney 261 Ezra Klein at the Washington Post: Obama 290, Romney 248 Drew Linzer at Emory University: Obama 326, Romney 212 Dick Morris of Fox News: Romney 325, Obama 213 Karl Rove: Romney 285, Obama 253 Larry Sabato, the University of Virginia: Obama 290, Romney 248 Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium: Obama 303, Romney 235 George Will at the Washington Post: Romney 321, Obama 217 Mike Allen over at Politico, meanwhile, has a pointer for those looking to call it an early night: "Watch Prince William and Loudoun counties in Virginia's increasingly diverse DC exurbs. Old Dominion polls close at 7, and the Commonwealth tends to count pretty fast. Obama won both counties in 2008. Romney has to take back territory like that if he's going to win. Tell me who won Prince William and Loudoun, and I'll tell you whether we have President 45 or President 44, Part II."