"We have to call up law enforcement, and we have to have the sheriffs, and the police chiefs, and everybody watching," he said. "Because if we get cheated out of this election, if we get cheated out of a win in Pennsylvania, which is such a vital state, especially when I know what's happening here, folks. I know it — she can't beat what's happening here." ||||| With a total of 44 electoral votes hanging in the balance in the key battleground states of Iowa, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, Democrats Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine are closely matched with Republicans Donald Trump and Mike Pence in Iowa. The Democrats edge the Republicans in Ohio. Clinton and Kaine have a wider lead over Trump and Pence in Pennsylvania. 
 
 In Iowa, Clinton, 41%, edges Trump, 37%, by 4 points among registered voters in a two-way matchup. When NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist last reported this question before the Republican and Democratic conventions, Clinton received 42% to 39% for Trump. In a four-way contest including Libertarian Gary Johnson and Jill Stein of the Green Party, Clinton and Trump are tied at 35%. Of note, Johnson receives double-digit support, 12%, among registered voters in Iowa. Of the three states, Stein does best in the Hawkeye State with 6%. 
 
 In Ohio, Clinton is up over Trump, 43% to 38%, among the statewide electorate. Last month, Clinton and Trump were tied with 39% each. Clinton maintains a similar advantage over Trump when Johnson and Stein are included in the tossup. Johnson receives double-digit support, 12%, statewide. Stein has the backing of 4%. 
 
 In Pennsylvania, Clinton, 48%, has an 11 point lead over Trump, 37%, among registered voters statewide. Previously, Clinton had a 9 point advantage over Trump, 45% to 36%. Little changes in the contest when Johnson and Stein are added into the equation. 
 
 Clinton has made some gains among moderates. In Iowa, Clinton’s edge over Trump has only inched up from 17 points to 20 points. But, in Ohio, Clinton now leads Trump among moderates by 24 points, up from just 8 points last month. And, in Pennsylvania, Clinton currently outdistances Trump by 19 points among this group compared with 14 points in July. 
 
 “The convention dust has settled in these three critical battleground states,” says Dr. Lee M. Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Despite the national spotlight of the conventions focused on each candidate, Clinton and Trump have not made any headway in voters’ positive impressions of them.” 
 
 Clinton and Trump are both unpopular in Iowa, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. 57% of residents in Iowa, 60% in Ohio, and 53% of Pennsylvania residents have an unfavorable opinion of Clinton. Looking at Trump’s favorability, 64% of Iowans, 61% of Ohio residents, and 63% of those in Pennsylvania have an unfavorable opinion of him. Clinton and Trump received similar scores in the July NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll. 
 
 Tim Kaine and Mike Pence are still not well known in each of these states. In Iowa, 45% of residents have either never heard of Kaine, 14%, or are unsure how to rate him 31%. 31% of adults statewide have a favorable opinion of Kaine while 24% have an unfavorable one. In Ohio, Kaine has low name recognition among 42% of adults who have either never heard of him, 16%, or are unsure how to rate him, 26%. More than three in ten residents in Ohio, 32%, have a positive view of Kaine while 26% have a negative opinion of him. In Pennsylvania, 41% of the statewide electorate have either never heard of Kaine, 12%, or are unsure how to rate him, 29%. 36% of Pennsylvania adults think well of Kaine while 23% have an unfavorable view of him. 
 
 Turning to Pence, 41% of Iowans have either never heard of him, 14%, or are unsure how to rate him, 27%. 34% have a positive opinion of him while 25% have a negative impression of Pence. In Ohio, 37% adults have either never heard of Pence, 14%, or are unsure how to rate him, 23%. 34% of Ohio adults have a favorable opinion of him while 30% do not. In Pennsylvania, Pence is not well known to 38% of residents who have either never heard of him, 13%, or are unsure how to rate him, 25%. 34% of residents in Pennsylvania think well of Pence while 28% have an unfavorable view of him. 
 
 In the contest for U.S. Senate in Iowa, Chuck Grassley, the Republican, receives the support of 52% of registered voters to 42% for Democrat Patty Judge. Grassley maintains his advantage over Judge. In the July NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll, identical proportions of registered voters were for Grassley, 52%, and Judge, 42%. 
 
 In Ohio, Republican incumbent Rob Portman, 48%, is up over his Democratic challenger Ted Strickland, 43%, by 5 points among registered voters statewide. Last month, Portman and Strickland were tied with each receiving 44%. 
 
 In Pennsylvania, Democrat Katie McGinty, 48%, edges Republican incumbent Pat Toomey, 44%, among the statewide electorate. Previously, McGinty garnered 47% to 44% for Toomey. 
 
 Looking at the job approval rating of President Barack Obama in each of these states, the president does best in Pennsylvania. 49% of Pennsylvania residents approve of how he is doing in office. An identical 49% had this view last month. 42% of Pennsylvania adults currently disapprove of how the president is doing in office. In Iowa, 46% of residents approve of Mr. Obama’s job performance while 41% disapprove. Iowans divided, 45% to 43%, in July. In Ohio, 47% think well of President Obama’s job performance while 44% disapprove. Previously, 44% of Ohio adults approved of how the president was doing in office while 44% did not. 
 
 Complete August 10, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll Release of Iowa, Ohio, and Pennsylvania 
 
 Complete August 10, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Iowa (Adults and Registered Voters) 
 
 Complete August 10, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Ohio (Adults and Registered Voters) 
 
 Complete August 10, 2016 NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of Pennsylvania (Adults and Registered Voters) 
 
 Marist Poll Methodology for Iowa 
 
 Nature of the Sample for Iowa 
 
 Marist Poll Methodology for Ohio 
 
 Nature of the Sample for Ohio 
 
 Marist Poll Methodology for Pennsylvania 
 
 Nature of the Sample for Pennsylvania ||||| Donald Trump has stepped up his argument that the presidential election will be rigged in favour of Hillary Clinton, claiming that the only way he can lose Pennsylvania is “if cheating goes on”. 
 
 Whereas Trump regularly cited opinion polls when he was winning the Republican primaries, his poor showing in recent national surveys has left him sowing doubt about the integrity of the process, even before a vote is cast. 
 
 If Donald Trump loses, will the Republican party sink with him? Read more 
 
 Speaking at a rally in Altoona, Pennsylvania, on Friday evening, the celebrity tycoon said: “We’re gonna watch Pennsylvania. Go down to certain areas and watch and study and make sure other people don’t come in and vote five times. The only way we can lose, in my opinion – and I really mean this, Pennsylvania – is if cheating goes on. I really believe it.” 
 
 Trump went on: “I looked over Pennsylvania and I’m studying it. And we have some great people here. Some great leaders here of the Republican Party, and they’re very concerned about that, and that’s the way we can lose the state, and we have to call up law enforcement, and we have to have the sheriffs and the police chiefs and everybody watching. 
 
 “Because if we get cheated out of this election, if we get cheated out of a win in Pennsylvania, which is such a vital state, especially when I know what’s happening here, folks. I know. She can’t beat what’s happening here.” 
 
 In 2014, a Pennsylvania judge struck down a law requiring people to produce state-approved photo ID in order to vote. The last Republican presidential candidate to win the state was George H W Bush in 1988, but Trump hopes to defeat Clinton because of its significant blue collar population. 
 
 The Republican nominee added: “The only way they can beat it in my opinion – and I mean this 100% – if in certain sections of the state they cheat, OK? So I hope you people can sort of not just vote on the 8th, go around and look and watch other polling places and make sure that it’s 100% fine, because without voter identification – which is shocking, shocking that you don’t have it.” 
 
 Trump is trailing by 52% to 42% in Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac survey of likely voters published on Tuesday. Is it one of several battleground states where he has fallen behind since the party conventions and a string of PR disasters. 
 
 As his chances of winning the White House appear to recede, Trump has increasingly gone on the offensive against perceived bias in the electoral system in a way no other candidate has in recent times. Earlier this month he told Fox News: “You don’t have to have voter ID to now go in and vote, and it’s a little bit scary, and I’ve heard a lot of bad things. I mean, people are going to walk in, they are going to vote 10 times maybe.” 
 
 He told the Washington Post: “If the election is rigged, I would not be surprised.” And last week, campaigning in Ohio, he said he’s “afraid the election is going to be rigged”, without offering evidence. 
 
 Several Trump supporters interviewed by the Guardian at a rally in Kissimmee, Florida, on Thursday night expressed the view that defeat, if it happens, will be explicable only in terms of irregularities. 
 
 Facebook Twitter Pinterest Donald Trump visits McLanahan Corporation headquarters in Hollidaysburg, Pennsylvania. Photograph: Eric Thayer/Reuters 
 
 Studies have shown only a minuscule fraction of voter fraud cases in recent years. Barack Obama has condemned Trump’s claims. “Of course the elections will not be rigged,” he told reporters recently. “What does that mean? The federal government doesn’t run the election process. States and cities and communities all across the country, they are the ones who set up the voting systems and the voting booths. 
 
 “And if Mr Trump is suggesting that there is a conspiracy theory that is being propagated across the country, including in places like Texas, where typically it’s not Democrats who are in charge of voting booths, that’s ridiculous. That doesn’t make any sense. And I don’t think anybody would take that seriously. 
 
 The president added: “This will be an election like every other election. And I think all of us at some points in our lives have played sports or maybe just played in a schoolyard or a sandbox. And sometimes folks, if they lose, they start complaining that they got cheated. But I’ve never heard of somebody complaining about being cheated before the game was over, or before the score is even tallied. So my suggestion would be go out there and try to win the election. 
 
 “If Mr Trump is up 10 or 15 points on Election Day and ends up losing, then maybe he can raise some questions. That doesn’t seem to be the case at the moment.” 
 
 During the rally in Altoona, Trump also claimed that the National Security Agency has Clinton’s missing emails and called on the agency to release them publicly. He was joined in Pennsylvania on Friday by Republican national committee chairman Reince Priebus amid speculation of friction between the camps. 
 
 Meanwhile Clinton’s husband Bill was campaigning in Las Vegas, Nevada. Addressing a forum of Asian American voters, the former president framed the election as a choice not simply of policy but of America’s identity as a nation of immigrants. 
 
 Looking around the room at the thousands who packed an auditorium at the Caesars Palace casino hotel, just down the Las Vegas strip from Trump’s eponymous tower, Clinton said “the metaphor of this election may be walls or bridges.” 
 
 “Are we stronger together or stronger apart?” he asked the crowd, comprising mostly of voters representing the nation’s fastest-growing racial group. “You remind people that e pluribus unum -- out of many, one -- is not just a slogan, it’s a way of life. 
 
 “You remind people that the eternal effort of making our union more perfect means expanding our definition of us and shrinking our definition of them, not the other way around.” ||||| Trump backs off his backpedal on Obama terror claim Hours after stating his claim of Obama as the founder of ISIL was "sarcasm," Trump says maybe it wasn't. 
 
 Donald Trump put his foot on the gas pedal again, driving home the accusation he had reversed himself hours earlier that President Barack Obama founded the Islamic State. 
 
 Trump had eased off the claim Friday morning, blasting the media for seriously reporting what he suggested was a sarcastic comment. “Ratings challenged @CNN reports so seriously that I call President Obama (and Clinton) ‘the founder’ of ISIS, & MVP,” Trump tweeted. “THEY DON'T GET SARCASM?” 
 
 
 
 He seemed to revel in the uncertainty his tweet created, boasting nearly 90 minutes later of pundits’ inability to figure him out. “I love watching these poor, pathetic people (pundits) on television working so hard and so seriously to try and figure me out. They can't!” Trump declared. 
 
 Story Continued Below 
 
 But during an afternoon rally in Erie, Pennsylvania, Trump said his initial remark wasn’t “that sarcastic, to be honest with you.” 
 
 “So I said the founder of ISIS,” Trump recalled to the crowd, after accusing the president of being “so weak and so bad” that he allowed the Islamic State to grow. “Obviously I’m being sarcastic. Then — but not that sarcastic, to be honest with you.” 
 
 
 
 The Republican presidential nominee’s swerving attempt at damage control came after doubling down, if not tripling down, on his “founder” claim Thursday. It also came ahead of what one person characterized as a “come-to-Jesus” meeting between Trump’s campaign and Republican Party officials in Orlando, Florida, on Friday morning, as dozens of prominent members of the GOP pressed the Republican National Committee to dump Trump and redirect its funds downballot to save Republican majorities in Congress. 
 
 
 
 Trump initially made the inflammatory comment during a Wednesday evening rally in Sunrise, Florida. “ISIS is honoring President Obama. He is the founder of ISIS,” Trump said. “He is the founder of ISIS, OK? He’s the founder. He founded ISIS. And I would say the co-founder would be crooked Hillary Clinton.” 
 
 
 
 But he didn’t stop there. The real estate mogul escalated his incendiary rhetoric multiple times on Thursday, including during a speech to the National Association of Home Builders in Miami. 
 
 
 
 “Our government isn’t giving us good protection. Our government has unleashed ISIS,” he said. “I call President Obama and Hillary Clinton the founders of ISIS. They’re the founders. In fact, I think we’ll give Hillary Clinton the — you know, if you’re on a sports team, most valuable player, MVP, you get the MVP award — ISIS will hand her the most valuable player award. Her only competition is Barack Obama.” 
 
 
 
 Trump’s “founder” comment is just the latest in a series of seemingly never-ending controversies that have erupted since he officially claimed the GOP nomination in Cleveland last month. The list includes a verbal battle with a Gold Star family and more recently a provocative remark about “Second Amendment people” stopping Clinton from appointing liberal Supreme Court Justices. 
 
 
 
 His comments in Miami followed telephone interviews with CNBC and conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt on Thursday morning. Trump told “Squawk Box” that Obama and Clinton deserve the Islamic State’s most valuable player award and slammed shut the opening Hewitt gave him to clarify his remarks. 
 
 
 
 “I know what you meant. You meant that he created the vacuum. He lost the peace,” Hewitt told Trump, to which Trump responded: “No, I meant he’s the founder of ISIS. I do.” 
 
 
 
 Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, a top Trump surrogate, expressed frustration with Trump’s “imprecise language” and “shorthand” speaking style. 
 
 
 
 “He sometimes uses three words when he needs 10,” Gingrich told Fox News, adding that had Trump, for example, explained that Obama and Clinton’s decision to pull out of Iraq created the vacuum that allowed the emergence of the Islamic State, he’d be “100 percent accurate.” 
 
 
 
 “When you instead comprise them into ‘Obama created ISIS’ — I know what Trump has in his mind, but that’s not what people hear,” he said. “He has got to learn to use language that has been thought through and that is clear to everybody and to stick to that language because otherwise the mainstream media is gonna take every possible excuse to pile on him.” 
 
 
 
 Massachusetts Rep. Seth Moulton, a Clinton supporter and Iraq War veteran, on Friday cast Trump as a clueless candidate with a hazardous temperament. 
 
 
 
 “I mean, what happens when he presses the nuclear button and then the next day says, ‘Oh, I’m sorry, I was just being sarcastic’? It’s ridiculous that we’re even talking about someone like this being our commander in chief, and it’s dangerous for our troops,” he told CNN’s “New Day” on Friday. 
 
 
 
 But Trump’s camp came to his defense. Senior adviser Sarah Huckabee Sanders pointed to the term “founder” as the “point of sarcasm” but maintained that the formation of the Islamic State is a result of Obama and Clinton’s failed policies. 
 
 
 
 “And that can't be disputed. ISIS didn’t exist before the Obama presidency,” she said on CNN, although the Islamic State's origins have been traced to before Obama took the presidency in 2009. 
 
 
 
 She also insisted that Trump’s intention was to bring the conversation to the fore of the campaign — and he did. 
 
 
 
 “I think the point that he’s trying to make is the contrast that exists, and he’s trying to bring out a really important issue and make everybody talk about it, and that's exactly what we're doing right now,” she said. “I bet that you guys will spend all day talking about whether or not Obama played a role in the formation of ISIS.” 
 
 
 
 Trump special counsel Michael Cohen repeatedly declined to try to explain Trump’s rhetoric in a separate CNN interview, insisting to Chris Cuomo that Trump is the best person to clarify his remarks. But he also said Trump should be taken at his word “for everything” and eventually offered an explanation for his boss. 
 
 
 
 “Mr. Trump is claiming that, you know, President Obama and Secretary Clinton are the founders of ISIS. What he's referring to, and he’s talked about it so many times, is of course the fact that ISIS grew and grew out of control and is now a threat to our national security,” Cohen said. 
 
 
 
 Trump also appeared to get a boost from RNC Chairman Reince Preibus, who introduced Trump at his Friday afternoon rally, despite the raw relations between the nominee and his party after the conventions. 
 
 
 
 “Don’t believe the garbage you read,” Priebus said. “Let me tell you something: Donald Trump, the Republican Party, all of you, we’re gonna put him in the White House and save this country together.” ||||| 
 
 Donald Trump (AP Photo/Evan Vucci) 
 
 Update: This article originally ran when Donald Trump made comments about voter fraud in Pennsylvania in August. On a Saturday night rally in the state, he repeated the claim, so we're republishing it with some updated numbers. 
 
 Donald Trump held a rally in Altoona, Pa., on Friday night, during which he told the audience that the only way Hillary Clinton could win the state was if "in certain sections of the state they cheat." 
 
 CBS's Sopan Deb transcribed Trump's comments. 
 
 We're gonna watch Pennsylvania. Go down to certain areas and watch and study and make sure other people don't come in and vote five times. ... The only way we can lose, in my opinion -- and I really mean this, Pennsylvania -- is if cheating goes on. I really believe it. Because I looked at Erie and it was the same thing as this. ... [L]et me just tell you, I looked over Pennsylvania. And I'm studying it. And we have some great people here. Some great leaders here of the Republican Party, and they're very concerned about that. And that's the way we can lose the state. And we have to call up law enforcement. And we have to have the sheriffs and the police chiefs and everybody watching. Because if we get cheated out of this election, if we get cheated out of a win in Pennsylvania, which is such a vital state, especially when I know what's happening here, folks. I know. She can't beat what's happening here. The only way they can beat it in my opinion -- and I mean this 100 percent -- if in certain sections of the state they cheat, OK? So I hope you people can sort of not just vote on the 8th, go around and look and watch other polling places and make sure that it's 100 percent fine, because without voter identification -- which is shocking, shocking that you don't have it. 
 
 There is almost no actual in-person voter fraud. In a survey of 1 billion ballots cast between 2000 and 2014, 241 possible -- possible! -- fraudulent ballots were found. Several of those ballots were cast in elections in Pennsylvania where a man named "Joseph Cheeseboro" and another named "Joseph J. Cheeseborough" each cast a ballot. That's all that was uncovered in Pennsylvania. 
 
 The "certain sections of the state" to which Trump is referring is almost certainly are a reference to a long-standing conspiracy theory involving the results in Philadelphia in 2012, where, in some places Mitt Romney got zero votes. Trump ally Sean Hannity raised it during a dispute with CNN's Brian Stelter. 
 
 Calling us unpatriotic? 59 districts not one Romney vote. So you are voting for the liar HRC. Did DNC hurt Bernie? https://t.co/Wuf5Sv9nCR — Sean Hannity (@seanhannity) August 7, 2016 
 
 The Philadelphia Inquirer wrote about the absence of Romney votes after the election, but included a key phrase: "The unanimous support for [President] Obama in these Philadelphia neighborhoods -- clustered in almost exclusively black sections of West and North Philadelphia -- fertilizes fears of fraud, despite little hard evidence." Little hard evidence -- and the voting was clustered in areas with a high percentage of black voters. Obama won 93 percent of the black vote in 2012. 
 
 But you don't have to take my word for it. An inspector of elections in Philadelphia, Ryan Godfrey, replied to Hannity on Twitter. Some excerpts: 
 
 1. I'm an inspector of elections for a Philly voting division. Independent but was a Republican as recently as June. https://t.co/pd82mOkEKh — Ryan Godfrey (@rgodfrey) August 7, 2016 
 
 Claim that 59 divisions in Philadelphia engaged in electoral fraud in 2012 because no votes for Romney is absurd & personally insulting. First, there's absolutely no way to erase votes from the machines we use in this city. ... Next, we get a paper tally at the end of the night that we match against physical count of voters who used machines (like an odometer). We match that against the count of the individual names of voters who have signed our rolls (and whose names we also recorded in books). ... So, # of votes corresponds with # of voters, & can't be tampered with after fact, but what about having machines change R votes to D? ... Why would they ever change *ALL* R votes to D votes, when anybody who voted R could easily refute the results just by saying they had? 
 
 He continues -- but that last point is key, and he reiterates it: 
 
 18. The Philadelphia Inquirer couldn't find anyone who cast a vote for Romney. Anyone. https://t.co/5hmtwwP1wi — Ryan Godfrey (@rgodfrey) August 7, 2016 
 
 Let's move to the bigger picture. In July 2012, the state stipulated that there had been no in-person voter fraud in the state. There have been instances of other types of fraud, as Godfrey notes, including an incident in which election workers in Philadelphia tampered with voting machines to add six votes. There have also been many instances in which voter rolls in different counties had two people that appeared to be identical, like Mr. Cheeseboro -- but few instances in which both of those people have cast ballots and raised concerns. Usually, such dual ballots "melt down to one or two if any at all," a researcher from MIT told the Pittsburgh Tribune‑Review. Why? In part because they are usually data errors or people with similar names. But also because there are a lot of protections, as Godfrey outlines. (Those protections, in fact, made it hard for Trump to vote in 2004.) 
 
 1 of 60 Full Screen Autoplay Close Skip Ad × What Donald Trump is doing on the campaign trail View Photos The GOP presidential nominee is out on the trail ahead of the general election in November. Caption The GOP presidential nominee is pressing his case ahead of Election Day. Nov. 7, 2016 Donald Trump speaks during a campaign event at SNHU Arena in Manchester, N.H. Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post Buy Photo Wait 1 second to continue. 
 
 What's above is a tally of rare incidents. In 2012, 5.5 million presidential ballots were cast in Pennsylvania. There's no evidence that thousands of fraudulent votes were cast -- or hundreds, or dozen, or even a handful. 
 
 [Rigging an election is a lot harder than you might think] 
 
 Perhaps more importantly, Trump is also already losing Pennsylvania. The RealClearPolitics polling average in the state shows Clinton with a lead of more than nine points. This, of course, doesn't include Trump's alleged, unproven voter fraud. It's an average of a number of polls in the state. 
 
 (Trump has claimed that polls under-represent his support; there's no evidence of that.) 
 
 Trump is convinced that he will win Pennsylvania, it seems, because of the support he sees in the state. Fair enough. But thousands of people at a rally doesn't compare to millions of voters. Why is Trump likely to lose Pennsylvania? Half the state thinks Obama is doing a good job. Thirteen percent of the electorate in 2012 was black; 93 percent of those voters supported Obama. In a new NBC/Marist poll, Clinton gets 94 percent of the black vote. Clinton and Trump are tied among white voters, thanks to Clinton winning women by 25 points. Obama won them in 2012 by 13. 
 
 Update: As the national race has tightened, so have polls in Pennsylvania. The most recent was conducted in late September, near the closest point of the Trump-Clinton race nationally. Clinton has a 2.4-point lead as it stands -- a figure that includes polls conducted after Trump's closing much of the national gap but before the first debate. 
 
 What's more disconcerting than Trump's baseless assertion that Clinton can only win by cheating is his suggestion that his supporters -- and law enforcement -- police the polls. Even the Inquirer, which raised the question in 2012, notes that voter ID laws wouldn't somehow erase votes for Romney. What Trump is encouraging is vigilante citizens harassing voters at polling places, asking that they prove they are who they say they are. He's asking for intimidation, explicitly: Challenge suspect voters. This is a recipe for tension, if not violence -- and the lack of voter fraud incidents reveals that there's no purpose to it. 
 
 Political campaigns often have staffers at polling places track who has voted for turnout efforts. Trump, ironically, has no real get-out-the-vote effort, which could help him police this imaginary threat. So he suggests he will turn to untrained supporters. 
 
 American politics succeeds because the transfer of power is gracious. Trump's comments once again seem to anticipate that his response to what increasingly looks like it will be a loss will not fall into that category. ||||| “Undecided voters still have a long way to go before they vote for Trump,” said Frank Luntz, a Republican strategist who holds focus groups with voters. “He has high unfavorable ratings with so many voters that he would need to win most of the rest of the electorate, and his post-convention problems aren’t helping him grow.” 
 
 Mr. Trump’s troubles are perhaps most pronounced in Pennsylvania, which he has targeted for victory in November even though the state has gone Democratic in the last six presidential elections. He is running strong in the traditionally conservative western part of the state, and his advisers argue that his populist views on trade, immigration and foreign policy could resonate with independents and blue-collar Democrats. 
 
 “We have to win Pennsylvania,” Mr. Trump said on Friday during a campaign rally in Erie. “We win Pennsylvania, we’re going to win it,” apparently a reference to the presidency. 
 
 But to carry the state, pollsters say, Mr. Trump would need to beat Mrs. Clinton here in the Philadelphia suburbs, where President Obama defeated Mitt Romney in 2012 by about nine percentage points. (Mr. Obama carried the state by about five points.) Yet Mrs. Clinton holds a wide lead in those suburbs, 52 percent to 26 percent, according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College poll published Wednesday. 
 
 “There is absolutely no way Trump wins Pennsylvania unless he can broaden his appeal significantly and overcome his huge deficit in the suburbs,” said G. Terry Madonna, director of the Franklin & Marshall College poll and a longtime analyst of Pennsylvania politics. “He does well with white working-class voters, but there simply aren’t enough of them in Pennsylvania to win. And he can’t stick with his political message for more than five minutes.” 
 
 Mr. Trump’s advisers expressed confidence in their strategy and questioned whether public polls fully reflect his support. While some did express concern that there could be a ceiling on his support among women and members of minority groups, they also said he had room to grow among first-time voters, white men and independents — who, they said, will not pay attention to the race until the presidential debates begin in late September. 
 
 Paul Manafort, Mr. Trump’s campaign chairman, said the debates would be critical to winning over voters, but he also pointed to increased spending by the Clinton campaign on television ads in Pennsylvania and Ohio as proof of the threat Mr. Trump poses there. 
 
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 “We expect to do very well in the suburbs, which will help us to carry Pennsylvania,” Mr. Manafort said. “The demographics are very positive for Donald Trump and the issue agenda favors Donald Trump in Pennsylvania.” 
 
 Photo 
 
 A Clinton campaign spokesman did not respond to a request for comment, but several of Mrs. Clinton’s advisers and allies said they were highly optimistic that she would carry Pennsylvania and most other Rust Belt states. 
 
 There are few greater threats to candidates than a ceiling on their support, which is why many take more moderate positions during the general election in hopes of appealing to the broadest possible constituency. Republicans and Democrats have a history of nominating presidential candidates genial and ideologically flexible enough to expand their support beyond party loyalists. 
 
 Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton have historically high unfavorability ratings and extremely low favorability ratings among undecided voters. Yet since the conventions, Mrs. Clinton has focused her message and campaign schedule on undecided voters in swing states. Mr. Trump has shown little interest in changing his unorthodox approach: In an interview on CNBC on Thursday he said he would “just keep doing the same thing I’m doing right now,” even if he ended up losing. 
 
 Many Republican-leaning voters here in Bucks County said in interviews that Mr. Trump seemed almost to be willfully trying to alienate them: He says the right things about repealing the Affordable Care Act and cutting taxes, but then appears to revel in insulting women and Mexicans and singling out Muslims for harsh treatment. Several voters also cited Mr. Trump’s mocking of a disabled reporter, and others said that he seemed too hotheaded in confrontational situations, such as when he came under criticism from Khizr Khan, the father of the United States Army officer killed in Iraq, during his speech at the Democratic convention. 
 
 “America’s role in the world matters to me, and I don’t want a president who yells at other people,” said Adam Woldow, a dermatologist in Richboro, Pa., who said he voted for Mr. Romney in 2012 and John McCain in 2008. 
 
 As he waited for his station wagon to emerge from a carwash, Dr. Woldow paused to consider why Mr. Trump bothered him so much. “He just has so much baggage at this point, all the things he keeps saying,” he said. “I feel he’s even a bit racist.” Dr. Woldow said he was leaning toward Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate. 
 
 Penny Clendaniel-Bullaro, an independent from Morrisville, Pa., who also voted for Mr. Romney, said she was dismayed when Mr. Trump insinuated that Mr. Khan’s wife, Ghazala, had not been “allowed” to speak when she appeared alongside him at the convention. 
 
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 “Who is Trump to make these judgments? Trump speaks all the time with his own wife by his side, silent,” Ms. Clendaniel-Bullaro said while perusing the lunch menu at a diner in Doylestown. “He should be talking about issues if he wants to actually win people over.” 
 
 Advertisement Continue reading the main story 
 
 But Mariann Davies, a lawyer in Doylestown who supports Mr. Trump, predicted that his popularity would grow among voters who do not want Mrs. Clinton to continue the Obama administration’s policies. 
 
 “He’s talking about the issues everyone is pussyfooting around,” Ms. Davies said of Mr. Trump. “I think he could attract more voters if he would just focus on trade policy and jobs because people around here care a lot about those things.” 
 
 For most politicians, a call-it-as-you-see-it approach has limits: Candidates who offend too many voters, or look overly impulsive or intemperate, generally lose. But Mr. Trump believes that voters who have seen hard times in their communities will embrace him as a truth teller. 
 
 In the blue-collar cities of northeast Pennsylvania, a traditionally Democratic area where Mr. Trump would need to overperform, several voters said they were skeptical of his leadership skills even though they shared his concerns about immigration and national security. 
 
 Ody Draklellis, a Republican who owns the Queen City Diner in Allentown, said people in the area were open to Mr. Trump because they mistrusted Mrs. Clinton and were tired of Mr. Obama’s policies. But Mr. Trump’s main problem, Mr. Draklellis added, “is Mr. Trump himself.” 
 
 “Could Trump be a good president? Probably. But he might get us into a war, so the risk is too high,” said Mr. Draklellis, who has not chosen a candidate. “You would think he’d be totally focused on all of Hillary’s vulnerabilities. He could grow in the polls that way. Instead he just shoots his mouth off.” ||||| (CNN) Words can change meaning over time -- especially when they are spoken by politicians. Just ask Bill Clinton to define "is." 
 
 "Literally" was once used, exclusively, to introduce or punctuate a point meant to be taken in literal terms. But by 2013, enough people were using it interchangeably with "metaphorically" that even leading grammar pedants threw up their hands (literally?), and the Merriam-Webster and Cambridge dictionaries expanded their definitions. 
 
 Donald Trump has, throughout his campaign, tested the pliability of rhetoric and language, sometimes to underline an affirmative point, but more often of late -- and in particular on Friday morning -- as a tool for walking back damaging (or straight-up false ) assertions. 
 
 On Wednesday, the Republican nominee launched a new round of criticism against President Barack Obama and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, the former secretary of state, calling Obama the "founder" of ISIS and Clinton its "co-founder." 
 
 Given multiple opportunities to allow that his language had been hyperbolic or, yes, metaphoric, Trump refused. On Thursday, conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt practically begged him to narrow his definition. 
 
 "Last night, you said the President was the founder of ISIS. I know what you meant," Hewitt said . "You meant that he created the vacuum, he lost the peace." 
 
 But Trump wouldn't play along. 
 
 "No, I meant he's the founder of ISIS," Trump said. "I do. He was the most valuable player. I give him the most valuable player award. I give her, too, by the way, Hillary Clinton." 
 
 Hewitt again: "But he's not sympathetic to them. He hates them. He's trying to kill them." 
 
 "I don't care," Trump said. "He was the founder. His, the way he got out of Iraq was that that was the founding of ISIS, okay?" 
 
 Sensing progress, Hewitt probed a little further, and Trump seemed to be coming around, saying that if Obama "would have done things properly (in managing the withdrawal from Iraq), you wouldn't have had ISIS." 
 
 "That's true," Hewitt said. 
 
 "Therefore," Trump added, closing the circle, "he was the founder of ISIS." 
 
 A day of furious -- if somewhat puzzled -- fact-checking followed. The reviews were unanimous. No, Obama was not the founder of ISIS. That title mostly belongs to Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi, who led al Qaeda in Iraq before being killed in an American airstrike. The group rebranded after his death, becoming ISIS, and under the guidance of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi has capitalized on a series of missteps by both the George W. Bush and Obama administrations -- along with a civil war in Syria and Iraqi government failures -- to create a new global terror state. 
 
 By Friday morning, as the backlash to Trump's comments was again threatening to knock out the potential to generate any positive news or electoral momentum, he began a familiar process -- the walk-back. 
 
 And true to this latest narrative's grammarian nightmare theme, Trump did it with a confounding declaration. 
 
 "Ratings challenged @CNN reports so seriously that I call President Obama (and Clinton) 'the founder' of ISIS, & MVP," he tweeted. "THEY DON'T GET SARCASM?" 
 
 Ratings challenged @CNN reports so seriously that I call President Obama (and Clinton) "the founder" of ISIS, & MVP. THEY DON'T GET SARCASM? — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 12, 2016 
 
 Rep. Seth Moulton, a Democrat and Iraq War veteran, was unimpressed. 
 
 "Donald Trump has shown that he lies every single day and then the next day he just tries to claim it was sarcasm," he told CNN's Brianna Keilar on "New Day." 
 
 JUST WATCHED Fact check: The real founder of ISIS Replay More Videos ... MUST WATCH Fact check: The real founder of ISIS 05:27 
 
 Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, a close ally, said on "Fox and Friends," that "one of the things that's frustrating about (Trump's) candidacy is the imprecise language. He sometimes uses three words when he needs 10." 
 
 However, many words Trump chooses to employ, "sarcasm" -- in this case -- should not be among them. 
 
 The term is precise. The dictionaries match the vernacular. It is the use of irony, of pointedly saying the opposite of what you mean in order to make a rhetorical point. 
 
 Taken in a sarcastic light, Trump's words would be amount to a mockery of... Trump's words. 
 
 A little later Friday morning, the Republican nominee tweeted more scorn at the press. 
 
 "I love watching these poor, pathetic people (pundits) on television working so hard and so seriously to try and figure me out," he wrote. "They can't!" 
 
 I love watching these poor, pathetic people (pundits) on television working so hard and so seriously to try and figure me out. They can't! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 12, 2016 
 
 Literally true. ||||| Donald Trump has launched a campaign initiative seeking volunteer "observers" to prevent his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton from "rigging" the November presidential election. 
 
 "Help Me Stop Crooked Hillary From Rigging This Election!" an apparently new page on the Republican candidate's official website says. "Please fill out this form to receive more information about becoming a volunteer Trump Election Observer." 
 
 The form collects users' contact information, then directs them to a donations form. Those who sign up also receive an email promising that "we are going to do everything we are legally allowed to do to stop crooked Hillary from rigging this election." 
 
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 Volunteer to be a Trump Election Observer 
 
 Help Me Stop Crooked Hillary From Rigging This Election! 
 
 
 
 
 
 Please fill out this form to receive more information about becoming a volunteer Trump Election Observer. 
 
 Please ensure that the information you provide in this form matches your voter registration information.
– Pennsylvania hasn't voted Republican in a presidential election since 1988—but if it goes Democratic this time, it will be evidence of skulduggery, according to Donald Trump. "The only way we can lose, in my opinion—and I really mean this, Pennsylvania—is if cheating goes on. I really believe it," he told a rally in Altoona Friday night, per the Guardian. "We have to call up law enforcement, and we have to have the sheriffs and the police chiefs and everybody watching," Trump said, expressing dismay at the state's lack of voter ID requirements and urging his supporters to "go around and look and watch other polling places" after they have cast their votes in November. A round-up of coverage: Wendy Weiser, director of the Democracy Program at the New York University School of Law’s Brennan Center for Justice, tells the Los Angeles Times that Trump's "disturbing and harmful" remarks could lead to the intimidation of minority voters. Pennsylvania is a must-win state for Trump, but he is 11 points behind Clinton, according to the latest Marist poll. Analysts say that while Trump is doing well with the state's working-class white voters, there aren't enough of them for him to win the state unless there is a massive shift away from Clinton in the Philadelphia suburbs, the New York Times reports. BuzzFeed reports that Trump has added a new page to his website seeking "volunteer Trump Election Observers" to help him stop "Crooked Hillary" from "rigging this election." Philip Bump at the Washington Post looks at problems that have occured in recent Pennsylvania elections, and finds there is little to warrant what he calls Trump's call for voter intimidation—which could be a "recipe for tension, if not violence." Politico reports that earlier on Friday, Trump said his claim that President Obama is the founder of ISIS was "sarcasm," then told a rally in Erie, Pa. he "was being sarcastic—"but not that sarcastic, to be honest with you." CNN takes issue with his use of the word "sarcasm."