North Korea is "clearly" in a position to threaten Hawaii today, and the state could benefit from additional protections against an attack, the head of U.S. Pacific Command told Congress on Wednesday. 
 
 North Korea is "clearly" in a position to threaten Hawaii today, and the state could benefit from additional protections against an attack, the head of U.S. Pacific Command told Congress on Wednesday. 
 
 The top American military officer in the Pacific slammed recent North Korean missile tests as 'unacceptable' on Tuesday, denouncing attempts at military escalation as unwarranted during meetings with Japanese leaders. 
 
 The top American military officer in the Pacific slammed recent North Korean missile tests as 'unacceptable' on Tuesday, denouncing attempts at military escalation as unwarranted during meetings with Japanese leaders. 
 
 The U.S. Air Force on Friday conducted military training exercises in the skies above South Korea, near the country's northern border – an apparent show-of-force meant to demonstrate an 'ironclad commitment' to American allies facing increasing threats from North Korean. 
 
 The U.S. Air Force on Friday conducted military training exercises in the skies above South Korea, near the country's northern border – an apparent show-of-force meant to demonstrate an 'ironclad commitment' to American allies facing increasing threats from North Korean. 
 
 The Hawaii Emergency Management Agency is kicking off an educational campaign aimed at helping residents and visitors figure out what to do if the state is the target of a nuclear missile attack from North Korea. 
 
 Hawaii is the first state to prepare the public for the possibility of a ballistic missile strike. 
 
 The state's emergency management agency said the threat to the islands from the rogue nation is "currently assessed to be low." 
 
 But officials added ongoing North Korean missile tests — and growing public concern — have prompted officials to work on preparedness and disaster management plans. 
 
 Vern Miyagi, administrator of the emergency management agency, stressed that the public shouldn't be alarmed by the planning. 
 
 Rather, he said, the public should see the preparation and education much like the work being done to prepare the public for hurricane and tsunami, which pose a greater risk to the state. 
 
 "We need to tell the public what the state is doing," Miyagi said. “We do not want to cause any undue stress for the public; however, we have a responsibility to plan for all hazards." 
 
 Earlier this month, North Korea tested an ICBM missile, drawing condemnation from the US and other countries. Experts say an ICBM like the one North Korea launched could reach Alaska and possibly even Hawaii. 
 
 The state plan considers what is currently a worst-case scenario: A 15-kiloton nuclear weapon detonated 1,000 feet above Honolulu. 
 
 In that scenario, public service announcements will tell residents, people should "get inside, stay inside, and stay tuned." 
 
 During the Cold War, the state said, Hawaii routinely updated plans and conducted drills related to nuclear attack scenarios. But those plans gathered dust as the threat faded. 
 
 And officials stressed, the time to plan is now — even if the threat level is low. 
 
 "We don’t know the exact capabilities or intentions of the North Korean government, but there is clear evidence that it is trying to develop ballistic missiles that could conceivably one day reach our state," Miyagi said. "Therefore, we cannot wait to begin our public information campaign to ensure that Hawaii residents will know what to do if such an event occurs." 
 
 It would take 20 minutes for an ICBM to travel to Hawaii from North Korea. The public would have eight to 12 minutes of notice before the attack started. 
 
 As part of the new campaign, the state will also start testing a new "wailing" emergency siren on the first workday of the month. 
 
 That testing will start as early as November — the normal siren will sound, followed by a second siren that would be used in the event of an attack. 
 
 The agency's new campaign is causing concern among some in the tourism industry, who worry visitors could choose other destinations for fear of a North Korea attack. 
 
 “We support the efforts of the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency to prepare for any threat to Hawaii’s well-being, be it man-made or a natural disaster," said Charlene Chan, director of communications at the Hawaii Tourism Authority. 
 
 "However, we also know from speaking to our tourism industry partners that if reports are misinterpreted about the State’s need to prepare for an attack, this could lead to travelers and groups staying away from Hawaii. The effect of such a downturn would ultimately be felt by residents who rely on tourism’s success for their livelihood.” 
 
 Miyagi is set to unveil more details on the educational campaign Friday. 
 
 Copyright 2017 Hawaii News Now. All rights reserved. ||||| After the frenzy of technical speculation over the successful launch of North Korea’s Hwasong-14 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the dust seems to be clearing and the emerging reality is that the North has an unreliable missile that can reach Alaska or Hawaii with a single nuclear warhead, and would be lucky to hit even a city-sized target. However, with a year or two of additional testing and development, it will likely become a missile that can reliably deliver a single nuclear warhead to targets along the US west coast, possibly with enough accuracy to destroy soft military targets like naval bases. In perhaps five years, North Korea may be able to incorporate a modest suite of decoys and penetration aids to challenge US missile defenses. Let’s hope US missile defenses are up to that challenge. 
 
 Contrary to the assertions of some analysts that the missile is currently capable of carrying several warheads, not just one, it may eventually be able to carry a modest suite of decoys or penetration aids, though probably not for several years. A multiple warhead capability, while theoretically possible, would require a very lightweight warhead, which will require a lot more nuclear testing and is probably a decade in the future at best. 
 
 That said, the Hwasong-14 that flew last week was surprising in several respects. On the surface, it appeared to be a completely different missile than the one North Korea rolled out under the name of “Hwasong-14” back in 2015. On close examination, however, this new Hwasong-14 appears to be closely based on elements of several previous North Korean missiles. In fact, very little of the Hwasong-14 is truly new: it uses the same engine as the Hwasong-12, a structural technology first developed for the original Hwasong-14 and demonstrated on the Hwasong-12; it also featured an upper stage very similar in size and performance to the Hwasong-13 (itself derived from the upper stage of the Unha space launch vehicle), and probably a reentry vehicle (RV) derived from the original Hwasong-14. An estimate of how all these parts come together is shown below. 
 
 It is surprising, nonetheless, that North Korea was able to make last week’s test look like a new missile by using technologies and systems they have been working with in other contexts for years. This means we can make a reasonable estimate of its performance by looking at those other systems, and comparing what we know about them to what the Hwasong-14 demonstrated last week. As was noted at the time, the Hwasong-14 was launched on a very high angle “lofted” trajectory to avoid overflying Japan, and might have reached a distance of 7,000-8,000 kilometers if launched on a maximum-range trajectory. If the Hwasong-14 is put together the way we think it is, it can probably do a bit better than that when all the bugs are worked out. The figure below shows the estimated reach of a fully developed Hwasong-14 as a function of payload weight, with the missile fired in a northeast direction from North Korea. The North Koreans won’t be able to achieve this performance tomorrow, but they likely will eventually. 
 
 A range of as much as 9,700 kilometers, approximately the distance from North Korean launch sites to the US naval base at San Diego, would be possible with a 500 kg payload. And that raises an obvious question: what is that payload? Most every other North Korean long-range missile is topped with a triconic reentry vehicle sized for a single nuclear warhead about the size of the mock-up Kim Jong Un showed off last year. We’re pretty sure North Korea can actually build nuclear warheads about that size. But where other missiles have visible reentry vehicles, the Hwasong-14 has a detachable payload shroud.[1] We don’t know what goes inside, except that the usual triconic reentry vehicle won’t fit. 
 
 Those reentry vehicles probably aren’t qualified for reentry at ICBM velocities, and changing that would require an extensive test program. A faster and lower-risk approach to putting a warhead on an ICBM is to use a blunt-body reentry vehicle, like the United States did on its first Thor and Atlas ICBMs. And indeed, the original Hwasong-14 missile from 2015 sported a blunt-body RV at the tip—one that would fit almost perfectly inside the new Hwasong-14’s shroud. Blunt-body RVs have their disadvantages, such as limited accuracy. But, as long as you’re willing to settle for landing within a few miles of the target, they will do the work. 
 
 In the short term, that’s probably all there is to it—a streamlined fairing over a blunt-body RV, capable of delivering a 500 to 600 kg nuclear payload with limited accuracy to targets on the US west coast. In the longer term, however, there may be something more. Payload shrouds are somewhat failure-prone until they have been thoroughly tested, and usually not worth the bother if all one wants to do is deliver a single warhead. Payload shrouds are designed to provide a clean aerodynamic exterior to a complex assortment of un-aerodynamic payloads. 
 
 Thus, we expect there will eventually be more than just a single warhead under the shroud. But it probably won’t be multiple warheads, at least not for a decade or more. Multiple warheads of the size North Korea has displayed and can plausibly build today, along with reentry vehicles to carry them, simply wouldn’t fit. To put multiple warheads inside that fairing, at a weight that would still allow intercontinental reach, North Korea would have to develop a lightweight nuclear warhead comparable to the W-68 warhead of the US Poseidon missile. It took the United States almost 15 years to go from building the sort of nuclear weapons North Korea has today to the W-68. And while the North Korean missile program has been conducting tests at an accelerated pace, they have conducted only two nuclear tests in the past four years. So perhaps in 2030 we will see a multiple-warhead Hwasong-14, but probably not before then. 
 
 A more urgent, and more realistic, priority for North Korea would be a system of decoys and penetration aids to defeat US missile defenses. The US national missile defense system in its current state is limited and unreliable, working only about half the time in tests. But North Korea has to consider that deploying an operational ICBM would motivate the United States to improve its defenses. They can’t possibly hope to build more ICBMs than the US can build missile defense interceptors. But if they can put a dozen or so effective decoys on each missile—that might be enough to maintain a credible deterrent. 
 
 This is not a trivial matter. One often hears decoys described as “mylar ballons,” as if a simple child’s toy would be sufficient. In reality, a toy balloon probably wouldn’t survive the harsh environment of a missile launch, let alone fool a sophisticated adversary’s defense. As a more realistic example, consider the British “Chevaline” decoy system, developed using the technology of the early 1970s when the United Kingdom faced a similar deterrence credibility problem against Russia’s nascent anti-ballistic missile (ABM) system. This is a capability North Korea could reasonably hope to match. 
 
 It took the UK seven years and seven billion (in current year dollars) to make Chevaline work. The system reportedly shoehorned 27 decoys and their deployment mechanisms into slightly more than 250 kilograms. That’s half the payload of the Hwasong-14, if North Korea is serious about targeting San Diego. Consequently, the North Koreans would probably have to accept a reduced decoy count, and make some progress on warhead weight reduction, to make it all fit. I would be very surprised if they weren’t working on that already, but without a missile to work with, there is a limit to how much progress they can make. ||||| The state of Hawaii is rolling out a preparedness plan in the unlikely event that North Korea launches an intercontinental ballistic missile at the Aloha State. 
 
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 The state of Hawaii is rolling out a preparedness plan in the unlikely event that North Korea launches an intercontinental ballistic missile at the Aloha State. 
 
 The public education and information campaign will emphasize steps to be taken on short notice, according to state officials, because a North Korean ICBM would arrive in just 20 minutes, leaving just 12 to 15 minutes to warn the populace. 
 
 “We do not want to cause any undue stress for the public; however, we have a responsibility to plan for all hazards. We don’t know the exact capabilities or intentions of the North Korean government, but there is clear evidence that it is trying to develop ballistic missiles that could conceivably one day reach our state. Therefore, we cannot wait to begin our public information campaign to ensure that Hawaii residents will know what to do if such an event occurs,” Vern Miyagi, Hawaii Emergency Management Agency administrator, said in a release. 
 
 The plan doesn’t mean a return to “duck and cover” from the 1950s, but it will include school students drilling for evacuation, similar to “active shooter” scenarios now, officials said. 
 
 Public service announcements will be aired that advise “get inside, stay inside, and stay tuned,” according to the state. 
 
 The tourism industry is not at all happy with the arrival of the campaign, which it fears could spook tourists. 
 
 “Everyone’s safety in Hawaii is always our top priority. We support the efforts of the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency to prepare for any threat to Hawaii’s well-being, be it man-made or a natural disaster,” Charlene Chan, director of communications for the Hawaii Tourism Authority, said in a statement. 
 
 “However, we also know from speaking to our tourism industry partners that if reports are misinterpreted about the state’s need to prepare for an attack, this could lead to travelers and groups staying away from Hawaii,” she said. “The effect of such a downturn would ultimately be felt by residents who rely on tourism’s success for their livelihood.” 
 
 Chan added that the threat of a North Korean missile attack on Hawaii “is a very remote possibility at this time.” 
 
 But state officials say they want to get out ahead of North Korea’s goose-stepping march toward greater nuclear capability — even if it would be suicide for leader Kim Jong Un to launch missiles at the United States. 
 
 Miyagi and Emergency Management Executive Officer Toby Clairmont are expected to unveil more details of the preparedness plan Friday. 
 
 North Korea’s first and only successful flight test July 3 of an ICBM has some experts asserting that Hawaii now is in range of the missile known as the Hwasong-14. 
 
 Missile expert John Schilling wrote on the website 38North.org on July 10 that “the dust seems to be clearing and the emerging reality is that the North has an unreliable missile that can reach Alaska or Hawaii with a single nuclear warhead, and would be lucky to hit even a city-sized target.” 
 
 With the collapse of the Soviet Union, ICBMs came off Hawaii Emergency Management’s threat list of mostly natural hazards in the late 1990s. Terrorism was added. 
 
 With North Korea emerging as a new threat, Miyagi told the Honolulu Star-Advertiser in April that it was time to update previous plans. 
 
 “If you were to ask me what is the status of North Korea, and is (a missile attack) a high probability, no, it’s a low probability,” Miyagi, a retired Army two-star general who served at U.S. Pacific Command as a senior adviser, said at the time. “But then, so, we have to keep a lookout for that (threat). That’s why we’re talking about updating the plan. It’s an awakening,” he added. 
 
 Miyagi at the time said North Korea could be developing a 10-kiloton warhead capability. For comparison, the bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945 was 15 kilotons. 
 
 Hawaii Emergency Management is an all-hazards agency, “so the point is, whether it’s nuclear events, whether it’s hurricane or tsunami, the same thing that we need to get out to the folks is that they need to have a plan,” he said. 
 
 That includes coordinating with family members on meeting spots and communication when and if usual methods are disrupted. 
 
 “Know where to go, know what to do, and know when to do it,” Miyagi said.
– The antics of North Korea's Kim Jong Un are officially no longer funny in Hawaii. State officials are rolling out a civil-preparedness campaign in case of a nuclear attack by North Korea, reports Hawaii News Now. Part of that means public-service announcements about what people should do if Pyongyang launches a missile. As the Honolulu Star-Advertiser explains, the warnings wouldn't be those of the "duck and cover" variety from the Cold War era, but would be similar to those of an active-shooter situation. They would advise people to “get inside, stay inside, and stay tuned." More details are to be unveiled on Friday about the campaign, which comes in the wake of North Korea's test this month of an intercontinental ballistic missile. If the North launched one, Hawaii residents would have, at most, about 15 minutes of warning. A second part of the campaign will be once-monthly tests of a new emergency siren; the tests are slated to begin as soon as November and will take place on the first workday of each month. "We do not want to cause any undue stress for the public; however, we have a responsibility to plan for all hazards," says the director of Hawaii's Emergency Management Agency, which says the current threat assessment is low. A post earlier this month at the respected 38North.org said North Korea "has an unreliable missile that can reach Alaska or Hawaii with a single nuclear warhead," but is probably a year or two away from posing a threat to the West Coast. One group not thrilled with the state's new initiative: tourism officials. A spokeswoman for the Hawaii Tourism Agency says the chances of an attack are "very remote" and thus the new campaign sounds alarmist.