oftware products, but most of OSS/BSS software spend- ing is still on IT services and the share of commercial off-the-self licenses is still a small percentage of total SW spending. Assuming the evolution of the OSS/BSS software market to follow the generic vertical industry software market model, the next events to take place are adoption of a dominating standard for the technology interfaces and standardization of OSS/ BSS business processes enabling implementation of less complex software systems in the form of cost-efficient and effective products. If this does not happen, the software development activity and business will find new growing markets to make best commercial use of the software engineering resources and the OSS/BSS software market will continue its consolidation. Manager's Toolbox for OSS/BSS Market Analysis Alternatively, the continuous introduction of new technologies can prevent the adoption of dominant standards and the market will remain in the current phase of competing standards. Further, new business models adopting new combinations of traditional telecom operator processes and processes of other vertical industries (e.g., media, finance, IT services) may create new needs for new software solutions starting a new evolution cycle for emerging OSS/BSS industry subsegments. Miniscenarios The following miniscenarios represent specific events that either freeze further evolution or bring it a step further or have other major impact to the market evolution in the time frame of 2009-2013. The likelihood and impact values are presented for those mini scenarios evaluated in the Delphi study (see Chapter 14). The miniscenarios are positioned into layers, actors, and activities in Fig. 2. 2.1 High Likelihood: High Impact Miniscenarios These three miniscenarios represent evolutionary development of the OSS/BSS market with likelihood and impact higher than the average of the miniscenarios. Revised Business Models 15 16 Telecom business Deregulation Intensified Consolidation of operators National Busi