ds of the largest client for new infrastructure, the developing world. Fixed line, for both packet and circuit switched communications, will act as a complementary backhaul long distance and feeder access network. OECD countries are only likely to turn to the technical and cost advantages of the new lightweight infrastructure at a later stage. The model of higher access replacing low access technologies has a parallel in the history of transport from canals to private road transport. Thus fixed line backhaul infrastructure will tend to remain static in topology and geographic link structure, but will expand in link capacity by replacement of signalling technology - SO the same fibre optic physical link will carry more traffic. The architecture of telecommunications infrastructure will move to simpler less intelligent networks, with intelligence based at the edges, in servers and user devices. The predominating form of switching will be packet switching tailored for isochronous communications. The infrastructure will need to contain security verification of sources and addresses, as well as monitors for spam and for identifying capturing and captured user nodes ("zombies" and "botnets"). New protocols based on IPv6 will expand the address space in response to the needs for far more users, past the 4 billion addresses of IPv4 by many orders of magnitude. Telecommunications infrastructure competition will continue in the early part of development to 2030. Fixed infrastructure operators will attempt to rival the mobile operators with converged (fixed and mobile) services. Cable operators and Internet Service Providers (ISP) will increasingly enter telecommunications with either a fibre network for backhaul or a service offering acting as a VIP, with use of unbundled capacity. Business models of the operators are likely to change as a result of price competition and lower costs of entry, so the service competition from new players such as ISPs, media and cable companies will be important. INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030: TELEC