 KEY FACTORS DRIVING THE FUTURE DEMAND FOR SURFACE TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE There are likely to be ICT-inspired improvements in road capacity utilisation - but these will operate at the margin of incremental demand, and will not substantially impact the overall road infrastructure requirements (rising from GDP, population, vehicle ownership growth; increased urbanisation; urban development - except as mediated by urban density/spatial distribution/road pricing policies around land use). Generally, the broad literature on the interaction of ICT and transport suggests that these are complementary (rather than substitutes); the potential for ICT to change travel patterns, times of day, choice of destinations, etc. may distribute anticipated demand increases over time and (potentially) reduce peak-hour urban-road congestion. Road capacity utilisation Typically (over time) we often see new road infrastructure installed in anticipation of future traffic growth. Significant periods of new road construction (e.g. North America over 1950s-70s) result in periods of low capacity utilisation, followed by steady increases in traffic relative to additional road capacity, resulting in rising capacity utilisation. This has been observed at national/regional levels as well as in urban/suburban areas. New construction infrastructure spending is usually motivated by one (or more) of the following factors: National security/sovereignty and/or regional integration (e.g. accessibility to remote border regions). Land development (e.g. new towns, suburbs, industrial areas, resource access, major facilities). Road congestion due to traffic growth (passenger, freight) beyond the existing road capacity. Safety improvements (e.g. passing lanes, shoulders, realignment, barriers, signage, level-crossing elimination). Environmental improvements (e.g. flood control, damage mitigation, noise reduction). The important point to make is that traffic-related road congestion is one of five drivers for new construction, although it is typically a more