 Big 5) is of great concern for energy and transport planners. Independent forecasts see China vehicle ownership grow from 0.6-1.3 per 100 population (vhp) in 2000 to 3.9-11.9 in 2020. There is comparable growth in India from 0.4 to 1.2, and in Indonesia from 1.5 to 6.7. 20 Table 4.4 shows rapid growth in annual distance driven, which is the product of total vehicles and an estimate of annual distance per vehicle (adv) - which trends downward over time for most industrialised countries, with INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030: TELECOM, LAND TRANSPORT, WATER AND ELECTRICITY - ISBN 92-64-02398-4 - © OECD 2006 4. KEY FACTORS DRIVING THE FUTURE DEMAND FOR SURFACE TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE Table 4.4. Road use forecast Region distance driven distance driven distance driven distance driven (Bvkm) (Bvkm) (Bvkm) (Bvkm) Industrialised 10 323 11558 13 734 16 484 Non-OECD 1 205 1 697 2 285 Developing Big 5 8 226 13 677 Others 2 966 3 974 World 16 079 19 537 27 631 37 632 "convergence" around 15 000 km/vehicle/year in the long term as vehicle ownership rates increase. 21 Rising GDPpc and vehicle ownership rates in industrialised countries are expected to increase total annual distance driven by 67% over the 30-year time period, but will result in a 290% increase among Big 5 and developing countries. This puts some stark figures to the challenge for energy sources and global sustainability. Key drivers for rail capital stock and new construction While there are economic drivers for future rail use and infrastructure - principally for rail freight growth - the nurturing and encouragement of rail passenger use is primarily determined by government policy and specific investment programmes (e.g. TEN-T priority projects). This has very consciously been a "sustainability" policy agenda to shift some road use to rail and at least dampen somewhat the future growth in local passenger road use (e.g. commuters) and intercity air use (e.g. business, pleasure), although there is a growing awareness that forms of inter-metropolitan interaction are blur