 perhaps easing off after 2020 or 2025 in proportional spend as the primary needs in their major equipping phase are met. By 2030 we would expect that today's developing world will take probably at least 50% of spend SO that the OECD community would account for an equivalent level of spend, but possibly less. These estimates are based on assumptions of spend per subscriber being far less in the NICs, but not necessarily far lower in capacity for throughput or potential for rich services. Note that the total infrastructure spend in billion USD in the table above reaches a maximum in 2010 as demand for infrastructure takes off, to serve an estimated 4.5 billion users (fixed and mobile). In subsequent years to 2030, the INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030: TELECOM, LAND TRANSPORT, WATER AND ELECTRICITY - ISBN 92-64-02398-4 © OECD 2006 2. TELECOMS INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030 Table 2.15. Projected infrastructure capex per new subscriber and total infrastructure spend globally End of year Capex/new subscriber, USD OECD fixed 1 000 Non-OECD fixed Mobile OECD Non-OECD Mobile Blended OECD/non-OECD capex per new subscriber, fixed and mobile, USD Mobile subscribers, billions Fixed wireline subscribers, billions Total number of subscribers, mobile and fixed, in billions Subscribers added in that year, billions, average over the 5 years Estimated proportion (% age) new subscribers that are non-OECD Estimated proportion of non-OECD new subs that are mobile, % age Proportion of total new subscribers that are mobile and non-OECD, % New infrastructure spend per year, billion USD New spend on non-OECD mobile, BN$ 56.70 53.20 23.09 20.11 New spend on non-OECD fixed, BN$ 12.00 Proportion of new infrastructure spend per year, that is non-OECD, % Installed base factors Installed base net value 1 billion USD calculated as number of subscribers times capex per user, with capex averaged over previous 5 years 3 160 3 938 3 945 3 575 1 120 812.5 Infrastructure maintenance and renewal spend at 15% of installed base value, billions USD Total infrastructure sp