driven per vehicle (adv). These might not hold, which would put further upward pressure on road construction. Rail infrastructure requirements Table 4.6 summarises the key estimates for rail new construction for the years 2000, 2010, 2020 and 2030. More complete results can be found in Annex 4.A7. It must be noted that the rail model was based on the road model and involves weaker base year data and significant manual adjustment to reflect known rail spending plans for China and OECD/EU-Europe. These rail new construction estimates of between US$50-60/year over 2005-30 are only somewhat higher than the 2000 base year levels, but are substantially greater than the previous forecasts of Fay-Yepes. The latter forecast annual investment requirements of about USD 17 billion/year over 2005-10, and did not appear to reflect the significant rail upgrading plans envisioned and commenced under the EU TEN-T programme. The significant additional new construction requirements (over base year spending) are primarily driven by Big 5 countries (especially China, which has committed to a major rail-building programme, including high-speed rail). There is some risk that the future rail new construction requirements in Table 4.6 may be too low. Certainly, there has been no conscious effort to force additional "sustainability" and GHG targets by shifting traffic from road to rail - except to the extent this is built into the EU TENT-T programme. INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030: TELECOM, LAND TRANSPORT, WATER AND ELECTRICITY - ISBN 92-64-02398-4 © OECD 2006 4. KEY FACTORS DRIVING THE FUTURE DEMAND FOR SURFACE TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE Table 4.6. Rail new construction requirements Region USD-B USD-B USD-B USD-B and (%GDP) and (%GDP) and (%GDP) and (%GDP) Industrialised (0.09%) (0.09%) (0.08%) (0.06%) Non-OECD (0.02%) (0.06%) (0.05%) (0.06%) Developing Big 5 (0.03%) (0.06%) (0.05%) (0.04%) Others (0.03%) (0.04%) (0.03%) (0.04%) World (0.06%) (0.07%) (0.06%) (0.05%) The rail capital stock consistent with these results grows from USD 631 billion i