ncome Countries New Construction NIMBY Not In My Back Yard Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Public-Private Partnerships Paved-Road Capital Stock Rail-Track Capital Stock TEN-T Trans-European Network for Transport United Kingdom United Nations United States Vehicles per Hundred (100) Population Vehicle Kilometres (Distance Driven) World Bank INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030: TELECOM, LAND TRANSPORT, WATER AND ELECTRICITY - ISBN 92-64-02398-4 - © OECD 2006 4. KEY FACTORS DRIVING THE FUTURE DEMAND FOR SURFACE TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE ANNEX 4.A2 Data Sources and Model A. Socioeconomic drivers Population: Base-level population (2004) is from US-CIA (2005); while growth rates for 2000-30 are from the United Nations (2004) - medium scenario. Output: Base-level GDP and GDPpc (2004) are from US-CIA (2005); while growth rates for 2000-30 are from the World Bank (2005), with the latter adjusted so that: GDP growth rates for the period 2000-06 were used for 2004-10; and for the period 2006-15 were used for 2010-20 and 2020-30; some adjustments were made to specific (disaggregated) regions to respect regional-summary growth rates; and GDPPC growth rates for the period 2000-30 were calculated to be consistent with UN-population forecasts. B. Road variables Vehicles: Base-level road vehicle stock (roughly 2000) is from IRF (2003); with "missing values" estimated from vehicles per 100 population (vhp), which were themselves estimated on the basis of GDPpc. Regional results for vhp were then calculated. The estimates of vhp for individual countries exploited a simplified step-function of the (basically logarithmic) relationship between vhp and GDPpc, so that: vhp = fcn (GDPpc) such that: (for GDPpc < USD 5 000): = 1.00 * (GDPpc/1 000) (for USD 5 000 < GDPpc < USD 10 000): = [3 0 000/GDPpc) * (GDPpc/1 000) (for USD 10 000 < GDPpc): = 2.00 * (GDPpc/1 000) INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030: TELECOM, LAND TRANSPORT, WATER AND ELECTRICITY - ISBN 92-64-02398-4 - © OECD 2006 4. KEY FACTORS DRIVING THE FUTURE DEMAND FOR SURFACE TRANSPOR