raphical areas. This kind of modification is most pronounced for companies dealing with, for example, national markets where competitors vary from region to region. CUSTOMER CHURN INDEX - CONCLUSION The CCI index is a strong tool in the battle to fight churn, but it is a complex and multidimensional process. It produces a number, or set of numbers, that provides information, at a glance, to executives, salespeople, or customer service representatives. The number indicates how happy or unhappy a customer is, what the customer's likelihood to churn is, and what the reasons are behind this propensity to churn. eXcellence in Telecommunications The Telco Churn Handbook Chapter 15 CHAPTER 15 PREDICTIVE MODELING FOR CHURN The customer churn index (CCI) described in Chapter 14 provides us with a generalized appraisal of the customer's churn attitudes and reasons, but does not give us solid predictability. What all churn managers ultimately would like is a magical crystal ball that tells them precisely when a churn event will occur. Predictive churn modeling is as close to that crystal ball as anyone can get. Although the CCI presents us with some good insight into the reasons why customers might decide to leave, we would like to know more than that. Ideally, we would like to know exactly who will leave and when. Theoretically, at least, this information would give us the ability to plan and address the churn event before it occurs. THE ART AND SCIENCE OF PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS When we move out of the realm of the less specific, from more generalized qualitative measures such as the CCI (A CCI is qualitative because it measures the relative quality of the customer's relationship with the firm.) into the specific quantitative measurement techniques (Predictive models are quantitative because they can be used to predict the number of people that will churn, when they will churn, and/or their likelihood to churn.), we find a number of additional rules that we must conform to in order to achieve the desired results. Quantitative