ould obviously be less or even no room for further commercial software. Implications: OSS/BSS software vendors would have to change their tactics with respect to open source software. E.g., they would have to provide their software for P. Tyrväinen free (still maintaining customer lock-in), release their product as an open source software, or find some intermediate way to integrate with the open source. Metrics: Market share of IT services related to open source software out of the total volume of IT services related to OSS/BSS. Low Impact Miniscenarios The following three miniscenarios are likely to happen unless some of the high impact miniscenarios, by introducing a dominant design, will turn the development to another direction. 2.3.1 MS3: OSS/BSS SW Vendor Consolidation Continues The number of software vendors serving the telecom service providers decreases. 2.3.2 MS14: Outsourcing Continues The telecom service providers will increasingly outsource most of their IT operations. 2.3.3 MS16: CSPs Focus on Customer Experience The telecom service providers invest on marketing, delivery and billing of media-based services. Out of the full list of miniscenarios generated for the OSS/BSS market 16 were considered as the most important ones and were included in the Delphi study. The following miniscenarios were also included in this filtered set of 16 miniscenarios, although their likelihood and impact was below the average of the top 16 minisce- narios. These miniscenarios were (in decreasing order of likelihood): MS1: Open source will be used through outsourcing MS2: High SW vendor switching costs dominate MS9: New vendors provide SW for new processes MS13: OSS/BSS software will become embedded to equipment MS6: OSS/BSS SW vendors have to ally with equipment vendors MS5: No need for SDP architectures Developing Toolboxes Pasi Tyrväinen The manager's Toolbox for OSS/BSS software market analysis is being developed for the analysis of the market during the SmarTop project, and is based on the data sources described in