ried out, most typically estimate small reductions in traffic levels, and so it is likely that teleworking would only take the edge off predicted increases in traffic. 79 INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030: TELECOM, LAND TRANSPORT, WATER AND ELECTRICITY - ISBN 92-64-02398-4 © OECD 2006 2. TELECOMS INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030 As noted, further traffic reduction from telecommunication substitution for travel could come from take-up of teleshopping. However this would increase the number of journeys for delivery vehicles from warehouses to the home. Most researchers expect e-commerce to lead to increases in freight traffic, although few quantify their predictions. Some dissenting voices, however, believe that ICT- based increases in efficiency and productivity will mean the same number, or fewer, vehicles on the road. There is no consensus about the impact of e- commerce on passenger trips. Research has explored a number of different scenarios with different business or logistical models, some of which show increases in overall traffic while others show a decrease. 80 Another possible impact might result from the use of advanced communications technologies to manage traffic congestion. The introduction of congestion charging in London has reduced traffic congestion, taking the pressure off the road infrastructure. Needs for public transport will continue but so will private mobility Public transport will still be a major item for public subsidy in 2030 as it is likely to remain a core service in the transport infrastructure in most OECD countries. As described above, teleworking could make a small contribution to relieve the burden on public transport, especially during rush-hour peaks. Long- term telecommunications effects will be more concerned with changing the face of public transport to individualise it and increase its safety, convenience, comfort and user mobility. One example is the use of telecommunications to summon door-to-door bus transport, perhaps mixed with train and taxi, with routes to match the itineraries of passe