none of the papers takes into account the possibility of a major conflict that could seriously disrupt the economic and political environment in the coming decades). Bohlin et al. stress in particular the important role played by telecoms as a political asset for popular movements and its ability to change the balance of government and to contribute to the decline of the nation state. Morgan is not as explicit in the IEA paper, but he acknowledges that concerns related to the need to ensure the reliability and security of supply - which involves geopolitical considerations - is likely to influence investment decisions, for instance with regard to the fuel chosen for generating electricity (e.g. nuclear power in France and coal in the United States). Security of supply considerations may also influence the direction of research efforts to find alternative sources of energy or make existing ones (e.g. coal) more acceptable from an environmental point of view. The geopolitical dimension may be less important for land transport than it has been in the past, but the critical role of road and rail for international connectivity is acknowledged. In the case of water, geopolitical considerations relate particularly to the potential conflicts that may arise among countries sharing water resources (see Ashley and Cashman). Some 40% of the world's population live in the 250 major river basins shared by more than one country. In Africa one-third of all water flows through the Congo, while only a tenth of the population lives within its basin. Economic development in Sudan and INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030: TELECOM, LAND TRANSPORT, WATER AND ELECTRICITY - ISBN 92-64-02398-4 © OECD 2006 1. A CROSS-SECTORAL PERSPECTIVE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURES TO 2030 Ethiopia will draw on the Nile's waters, making the potential for conflict with adjacent states a real concern. Notwithstanding a number of established international mechanisms for mediating the problems of shared water resources, there is ongoing potential for water-