, fossil fuels account for 70% of electricity generation in 2030. In the Alternative Policy Scenario, the share of fossil fuels falls to 61%, while the shares of carbon-free fuels rise substantially (Figure 3.12). In the Reference Scenario, coal's share in electricity generation remains almost unchanged up to 2030, at a little less than 40%. In the Alternative Policy Scenario, coal gradually loses market share, dropping to less than a third of total generation by 2030. At 8 700 TWh, coal-fired generation is 28% lower than in the Reference Scenario (Table 3.8). The decline is sharpest in the OECD, where the share of coal drops to 25% in 2030 compared with 33% in the Reference Scenario. Coal-based electricity generation is 15% less than in 2002, because many coal- fired plants are retired and replaced with plants using other fuels. China and India also see their coal-fired generation reduced by more than a quarter in 2030 compared to the Reference Scenario. Nevertheless, these two countries still account for 45% of the world's coal-fired generation in 2030. Gas-fired electricity generation, excluding hydrogen, is 1666 TWh, or 19%, lower in 2030 than in the Reference Scenario, although the share of gas in total generation drops only slightly. Within the OECD area, the largest reductions in gas-fired generation occur in Europe and Japan, where renewables and nuclear energy play a large role. In Russia, gas-fired power plants produce a quarter less INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030: TELECOM, LAND TRANSPORT, WATER AND ELECTRICITY - ISBN 92-64-02398-4 © OECD 2006 OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL INVESTMENT IN ELECTRICITY INFRASTRUCTURE Figure 3.12. Fuel shares in electricity generation in the Reference and Alternative Policy Scenarios Reference Scenario Alternative Policy Scenario Nuclear Hydro Other renewables Table 3.8. Change in electricity generation by fuel in the Alternative Policy Scenario compared with the Reference Scenario (TWh) -1 787 -3 392 -1 481 Nuclear Hydro Other renewables Total -2 122 -4 004 electricity in 2030 than in the Ref