f affluence. At the same time, technological changes will lead to improvements in the efficiency of water use and a decline in water intensity over time. In addition, the evolution of key technologies such as desalination may provide new sources to offset demand shortages in some areas. Water for irrigation will, however, continue to be the biggest source of increasing demand in absolute terms. INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030: TELECOM, LAND TRANSPORT, WATER AND ELECTRICITY - ISBN 92-64-02398-4 - © OECD 2006 5. THE IMPACTS OF CHANGE ON THE LONG-TERM FUTURE DEMAND FOR WATER SECTOR INFRASTRUCTURE It is expected that domestic water will account for 21% of global demand in 2025, as against 10% in 1995; industrial use should remain relatively unchanged at around 20%, while agriculture as a proportion will decline from 70% in 1995 to 56% in 2025 (Alcamo, Henrichs and Rösch, 2000). In absolute terms, water consumption in North America and Western and Central Europe will decline along with that in Japan and Australia, a trend that is already well established in Europe (Eurostat, 2003). Given both India's and China's pace of urbanisation, their demand for water in the domestic sector is expected to double by 2030 with a similar scale of increase in industrial demand (CAS, 2000; Indian Planning Commission, 2002; Briscoe, 2005). For India to meet the increases there will have to be transfers of the current allocation from agriculture to the domestic and industrial sectors. However, the problems this will cause will be exacerbated as most of the domestic growth will be located in the water-scarce areas of the country. In China there will be a target of nil growth in water consumption for irrigation, which coupled with further resource developments should cater for the increases in the irrigated areas. Trends impacting on water service provision Crucial for the review of trends is the definition of what are appropriate water and sanitation systems for now and the future. This definition is not straightforward. The earlier details of th