 to go after your customers. During the Maturity Phase While the initial shock of churn occurs during the end of the expansion phase, the day-to-day "steady state" churn conditions that the company must deal with will occur only when expansion is over and the maturity phase begins. Maturity phase churn is more predictable and, therefore, more easily managed. During the Decline Phase Naturally, when your current technology is made obsolete by new technology, you will see extremely high rates of defection from your customer base. During this time, management targets optimization of the revenues that can yet be recognized from the declining market. When Contracts Expire In markets where customers sign binding contracts for differing periods of time, the customers contract expiration date is the best predictor of churn. When New Competitors Enter Your Market Another interesting twist occurs when your basic technological profile remains unchanged, but new competitors enter your market. The presence of competitors where there were none before is a clear indicator that predatory acquisition campaigns are soon to be headed your way. eXcellence in Telecommunications The Telco Churn Handbook When Serious Customer Satisfaction Issues Are Not Addressed Churn will definitely occur if you have serious customer satisfaction issues that are not being addressed. If your customers are experiencing repeated problems with call quality or coverage, then you can be sure that they will actively search out alternative vendors. When Competitors Launch Predatory Acquisition Campaigns A competitor may, at any time, decide to make a big push in luring many of your customers away from you. The decision to launch an aggressive predatory campaign might be based on the competitors need to: Show high subscription rates to entice investors 2. To prepare for an IPO bid 3. To gain market positioning for some future strategy 4. To take advantage of a weakness they perceive on your Figure 7-3: You cannot prevent churn Chapter 7 When Conditions Are Ri