ncreased income will drive all forms of telecom takeups, most specifically mobile. At the same time, telecom will drive economic development and will contribute to reducing income inequality across countries, as the main expansion of the telecoms network will take place outside the developed countries. Morgan notes in the IEA chapter that the demand for electricity is closely related to changes in gross domestic product. Over the past 30 years the global economy grew by 3.3% a year while electricity demand grew by 3.6% with a very close tracking between the two variables. However, this remarkable stability in the relationship between GDP and the demand for electricity at the aggregate level hides striking differences between OECD countries, where the amount of electricity per unit of output produced has declined over time, and developing countries, where it has risen. Hence, changes in the structure of economic activities play an important complementary role to GDP growth. In this regard, a key question for the future is how fast the industrial mix in developing countries is likely to evolve, notably how fast the share of services will expand. For instance, over the next ten years it is expected that employment in the service sector will increase much faster than total employment in countries such as India and China, suggesting perhaps a substantial decline in the energy intensity of output at the margin in these countries. One should remain cautious in this regard since employment mix is not closely linked to output mix and hence to input mix. It is true that manufacturing employment in developing countries is not expected to increase much in the future. However, the manufacturing sector is the major INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030: TELECOM, LAND TRANSPORT, WATER AND ELECTRICITY - ISBN 92-64-02398-4 © OECD 2006 1. A CROSS-SECTORAL PERSPECTIVE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURES TO 2030 source of labour productivity growth. In this context, increasing the output/labour ratio means that even if employment growth i