se during the past few years. Maturity Phase As the market becomes saturated, we begin to see a leveling off of demand. Everybody that is going to take to the new technology is already using it. During this time period, the rapid expansion stops. (Figure 2-1: D) Now there are no new customers to acquire. Decline Phase Eventually, alternatives to the technology are invented and consumers decide that a replacement technology will help them more than what they are currently using. More and more consumers drop out of this particular market and eventually there are no subscribers at all. (Figure 2-1: E) THE TELECOMMUNICATIONS ASSIMILATION CYCLE The technology assimilation study describes a general cycle, but its applicability to the telecommunications industry is clear. In fact, understanding this curve helps us to understand several issues about the churn phenomenon as well. Wireline Lifecycle To begin with, let's take a look at how this assimilation cycle applies to the traditional wireline telecommunications business. See Figure The curve in Figure 2-2 has a shape very similar to that of the new technology assimilation study. The big difference is the timeline across the bottom of the chart. The lifetime of the technology is measured in decades instead of years. Chapter 2 100 years Figure 2-2: The Wireline Assimilation Curve Bell Invents the Telephone In 1876, Alexander Graham Bell invented the telephone. A few months later he was awarded the patent for it. Shortly afterward, he began trying to sell the new technology to interested parties. (Figure 2-2: a) What few people realize is that during the first several years of its existence, no one was very much interested in the telephone. Bell spent all of his time taking the new device to county fairs, asking people to pay five cents to talk with someone at the other end of the fair grounds. The Early Days of Telecommunications Eventually, Bell got some investors interested in the technology and the first truly public production phone system was installed in the North