nd new construction to replace depreciation of existing (lagged) paved-road capital stock. INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030: TELECOM, LAND TRANSPORT, WATER AND ELECTRICITY - ISBN 92-64-02398-4 - © OECD 2006 4. KEY FACTORS DRIVING THE FUTURE DEMAND FOR SURFACE TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE These key drivers primarily relate to road transport - and while they are also relevant for rail transport - rail use and infrastructure investment is much more controlled by public spending priorities and sustainability policy to affect modal shift from road to rail. Some of these priorities and policies are seen in existing government infrastructure plans (e.g. EU TEN-T projects, China's railway upgrading plan, Swiss transport policy). Road transport infrastructure requirements (new construction) of between USD 220-290 billion/year over 2005-30 are estimated. These are comparable in order of magnitude to previous World Bank forecasts of Fay-Yepes. They are also a substantial increase above the estimate base-year (2000) level of investment of about USD 110 billion/year - so that their planning, financing and implementation will require considerable effort and challenge. A majority of these investment requirements do not result in net additions to the value of the paved-road capital stock, and are required to replace (i.e. maintain) the depreciating paved-road capital stock. These road infrastructure investment levels require a higher (than present) rate of spending (as a percentage of GDP) - although the ratio of the paved-road capital stock-to-GDP is consistently falling over time. Rail transport infrastructure requirements (new construction) of between USD 49-58 billion/year over 2005-30 are estimated. These are greater than previous World Bank forecasts of Fay-Yepes. They are also a substantial increase above the estimate base-year (2000) level of investment of about USD 35 billion/ year - SO that their planning, financing and implementation will also require considerable effort and challenge. There is a more even split of these investment