2020-30 2003-30 OECD Europe OECD North America OECD Pacific Transition economies Russia Developing countries China East Asia Indonesia South Asia India Latin America Brazil Middle East Africa World 1. 1992-2003. The world's population is assumed to expand from 6.5 billion today to over 8 billion in 2030 - an increase of 1% per year on average. Population growth will slow progressively over the projection period, mainly due to falling fertility rates in developing countries. The share of the world population living in developing regions will nonetheless increase from 76% today to 80% in 2030. In the Reference Scenario, the average price for IEA crude oil imports is assumed to fall back from recent highs of over USD 60 a barrel to around USD 35 in 2010 in year-2004 dollars, and then climb to USD 39 in 2030 (USD 65 in nominal terms). Gas and coal prices are assumed to move broadly in line with oil prices. Electricity prices in each region are assumed to move in line with marginal power generation costs, which are in turn determined to a large degree by fossil fuel prices. Electricity demand In the Reference Scenario, electricity demand is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.5% over the projection period (2003-30), as the global economy increases at 3.2% per year (Figure 3.6). The world will consume twice as much electricity in 2030 as it does today. Developing countries will account for much of the increase in global demand for electricity. Their demand will rise at about the same rate as their GDP. Electricity use in those countries is projected to INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030: TELECOM, LAND TRANSPORT, WATER AND ELECTRICITY - ISBN 92-64-02398-4 - © OECD 2006 3. OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL INVESTMENT IN ELECTRICITY INFRASTRUCTURE Figure 3.6. World GDP and final electricity demand growth in the Reference Scenario Electricity demand 1971-2003 2003-2030 more than triple by 2030. In the OECD, the pace of growth will be slower, at 1.4% per year. Even so, at the end of the projection period, the 1.3 billion people in the OEC