 danger in many cities that local planning and amenity issues could override national/international interests in improving these connections. Better methods to balance local/ regional with national/international interests and concerns are critical - and for this the EU TEN-T process has been exemplary. Freight vs. passenger transport growth Historical analysis shows that there is a strong statistical correlation between the growth of GDP and transport, both passenger and freight - even though there may be significant variation in the relationship between freight tkm/GDP across various individual countries. Several factors are influencing (industrialised country) traffic growth:39 1. An indeterminate change in freight transport elasticity (relative to GDP) over the past ten years due to three intersecting factors: Reduced trade barriers (i.e. globalisation) and increased international transport - which are increasing freight intensity. Reduced material (especially weight) requirements in goods - which are decreasing freight intensity. Decreased proportion of GDP comprised of goods US. services - which is decreasing freight intensity. 2. A decline in passenger transport elasticity (relative to GDP) over the past ten years, due to population ageing.40 40 INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030: TELECOM, LAND TRANSPORT, WATER AND ELECTRICITY - ISBN 92-64-02398-4 © OECD 2006 4. KEY FACTORS DRIVING THE FUTURE DEMAND FOR SURFACE TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE Freight transport There is clear evidence from trade/traffic data that average km-distance traveled is growing - SO that tonne-km and freight vehicle-km are growing faster than tonne-km - and that this is particularly concentrated in key corridors of national/continental networks. 41 Freight traffic must deal with modal split (especially road-rail) which is typically distance-related and time-sensitive. Road is more cost-efficient for short haul (perhaps up to 500 km), while rail is more cost-efficient for long haul (over 500 km). Time-sensitive goods are more likely to be moved by road,