ation Draft scenarios for further market evolution can be created with three principal means. First, each type of the analysis above (positioning the market into some evolutionary phase) also predicts one or more likely future scenarios. Secondly, industry experts (e.g., OSS/BSS) and target industry experts (e.g., telecom operators) can be interviewed for their view of the market evolution. Thirdly, a systematic creation of scenarios can be followed in line with the process for developing scenarios defined by Schoemaker (1995): 1. Define the scope: time frame, products, markets, geographic areas, technologies. 2. Identify major stakeholders: customers, suppliers, competitors, government, etc. 3. Identify basic trends: political, economic, societal, technological, legal, industry. 4. Identify key uncertainties: political, economic, societal, technological, legal, industry factors. 5. Construct initial scenario themes: extreme worlds, crossing uncertainties. 6. Check for consistency and plausibility: timeframe, contradictions in uncertain- ties (full employment and zero inflation), stakeholders' will. 7. Develop learning scenarios: deriving more general and relevant themes. 8. Identify research needs: blind spots in uncertainties and trends. 9. Develop quantitative models. 10. Evolve towards decision scenarios: iterate 1 through 9. 5 Scenario Evaluation Scenarios produced can be evaluated in line with scenario work as described in Chapter 14. The scenarios having a high likelihood and high impact should already have been prepared for, whereas the scenarios with high impact and small P. Tyrväinen likelihood are typically the most demanding and require intensive effort for strategy creation. Following the vertical software industry analysis method presented here will help enterprises in creating a base-line for their strategy. Periodical efforts are also needed for evaluating the likelihood of the alternative scenarios based on the threshold values defined for the indicators as well as for updating the scenarios. Thi