ors due to climate change; from economic factors that cause affordability problems; or from overloading of systems that results in scarcity and excessive unauthorised and uncontrolled expropriation of supplies. Evaluation Security considerations are moving up the agenda and are likely to be aided by the introduction of new technologies and more robust designs, following considerable investment if these are included as part of military perspectives. Organisational security, however, is dependent upon socio-demographic, cultural and economic considerations, and as such is considered to be a manifestation of the consequences of other drivers. INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030: TELECOM, LAND TRANSPORT, WATER AND ELECTRICITY - ISBN 92-64-02398-4 © OECD 2006 5. THE IMPACTS OF CHANGE ON THE LONG-TERM FUTURE DEMAND FOR WATER SECTOR INFRASTRUCTURE Macroeconomy Output growth Although income per capita will increase, its distribution across countries will be uneven and likely to become more SO. Developing countries will face large and persistent income gaps, and the poorest in other countries may become increasingly marginalised. The World Bank has anticipated that the economic gap between developing and developed countries will close as a result of a faster growth in income in the developing countries. This should translate into a proportionately greater ability to pay for water services. However, sub- Saharan Africa is expected to fall behind as its per capita income growth will lag behind, lessening even further its ability to fund water services. Linked with climate change, increasing desertification and droughts, this may provoke massive migration and abandonment of previously inhabited lands. Globalisation and location of economic activity Globalisation as characterised by the increase in trade and capital movements has the potential to be a significant driver for water services, both in developed and developing countries. In developing countries the growth of manufacturing, reflecting rapid industrialisation, will accelerate wi