eason the spread of mobile, which globally now exceeds the number of fixed users, is increasingly important. Future infrastructure demand is likely to be determined by the increasing economic power of the developing world. By 2025, the economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRICs) could account for over half the size of the G6. 5 Currently they are worth less than 15%. The shift in GDP relative to the G6 will take place steadily during the 21st century but is likely to be most dramatic up to 2030. Even so, individuals in the BRICs are still likely to be poorer on average than individuals in the G6 economies. The accessibility of mobile over other technologies will be the main driver of its future success in those countries. The demographic trend towards an aged population will seed the need for richer services to support people and their health and to provide care for the elderly in most of the world. Emergencies, both manmade and natural, will demand new requirements from telecommunications infrastructures. INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030: TELECOM, LAND TRANSPORT, WATER AND ELECTRICITY - ISBN 92-64-02398-4 - © OECD 2006 2. TELECOMS INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030 Infrastructure will be shaped and driven by the needs for accessibility for the large mass of the unserved world - 3.5 billion potential users beyond the 2 billion or SO current users of telecommunications in all forms. In consequence, after 2010 or 2025, the developing countries and their requirements will begin to shape future telecommunications infrastructures. Future infrastructure technology will leapfrog current OECD progress. Tomorrow's infrastructure will demand a much lower spend than today's fixed line and cellular mobile and will be much quicker to roll out. The major part of future infrastructure will be devoted to transport of IP packets, carried by fibre optics and largely by radio access networks by 2030. In terms of infrastructure investment, the largest proportion will be devoted to multiple forms of mobile packet radio. This will fit with the nee