countries, the third and (especially) fourth factors are likely to dominate the evolution of global freight-transport intensity over the 2000-30 period. The model here does not explicitly forecast freight transport use. It does forecast vehicle use (freight and passenger), based on vehicle ownership and annual distance driven, to grow at the same 2.9% annual rate as GDP - implying an elasticity of vehicle use of 1.0 over 2000-30. A summary of relevant freight elasticities indicates that a range from 0.7 to 1.5 has been observed historically in industrialised countries, with a recent OECD average of 0.8. However, most of these estimated are for combined freight (mostly road and rail). Against this is the possibility that the Big 5/developing countries could experience higher freight elasticities, perhaps in the 1.5-1.8 range experienced by industrialised countries in the earlier 1950-70s period. INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030: TELECOM, LAND TRANSPORT, WATER AND ELECTRICITY - ISBN 92-64-02398-4 - © OECD 2006 4. KEY FACTORS DRIVING THE FUTURE DEMAND FOR SURFACE TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE Table 4.7. Relevant freight elasticity relationships Study Variable Elasticity 1. Road and rail freight Meersman-Van de Voorde (2003) selected Range from 0.7 (France) to 1.5 (Denmark), with EU countries (1990-2000) most estimates in narrower range of 0.9-1.4 Landwehr-Marie-Lilleu (2002) OECD 0.8 - with range of 0.8 (North America, OECD (total freight, 1986-97) Japan) to 1.3 (Western Europe) Tsamboulas (nd) EU accession countries (2000-20) Forecast of 1.6 WBCSD (2004) Global (2000-30) Forecast of 0.83 Landwehr-Marie-Lilleu (2002) Global (2000-30) Forecast of 0.63 2. Road freight AU-BTCE (1990) Australian Corridors Range from 1.0 to 2.0, with higher value GDP (real income) generally for dense long-haul routes Song et al. (1993) selected industrialised Range from 1.4 to 2.5, with most estimates countries (1950-70s) GDPpc in narrower range of 1.5-1.8 Passenger transport Because local transport accounts for more than 80% of traffic in most countri