f such finance. At the same time there is a need to encourage devolution of responsibility away from central government in order to shift financial burdens away from taxpayers to service users. Such moves should facilitate better access to local capital and financial markets. For the foreseeable future, it is likely that the private sector will be a major source of managerial and technical expertise rather than investors, especially in developing countries (OECD, 2004). There is a need to develop mechanisms to allow greater engagement with the private sector as far as financing is concerned. As has been observed, although reform and innovation are needed in financial architecture, there is not likely to be any paradigm shift and different sources of finance will be needed (OECD, 2004). Demography and urbanisation It is expected that not only global population but also urbanisation will increase, SO that by 2030 some 60% will live in cities (UN, 2004). Almost all of the increase in population in developing countries will be accounted for by urban growth. The scale of the growth will place enormous pressures on local governments to ensure that there is adequate provision of basic services. In developing countries urban growth will be fuelled by migration out of the rural areas. Thus those constituting the new growth are likely to be relatively less skilled and will add to the burgeoning numbers of urban poor. The manner in which these urban poor are accommodated and the form of urbanisation will have a determining influence on whether and how infrastructure services are provided and their access to them. One of the key questions will be the ability and competence of local government to manage the pace and process of urbanisation and the institutional ability to undertake infrastructure service provision and the levels of funding that can be mobilised. Hence the challenge INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030: TELECOM, LAND TRANSPORT, WATER AND ELECTRICITY - ISBN 92-64-02398-4 © OECD 2006 5. THE IMPACTS OF CHANGE ON THE LONG-TERM 