Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 OECD countries New middle Low-income population and newly class in enters the market with onset industrialising of near-zero tariffs countries (big 5) expands user base Network service business "Perception of freeness" = unlimited usage, Early mass growth for more prosperous users "Perception of freeness" = unlimited usage, for Median disposable income population "Perception of freeness" = unlimited usage, for rest of world on low income - Saturation population Billions of users worldwide Trends in traffic and their infrastructure impacts With their ability to reduce costs, there will be a move towards higher bandwidth infrastructures, initially driven by the need for Internet access. Multimedia will tend to replace plain vanilla voice to some extent, although this will be a slow transition. Voice and SMS will always dominate, especially in the developing world, as they are the enduring basic services with key needs in the low-end market. Only a slow transition from these two basic services can be expected, into downloaded music, video games both networked and downloaded, possibly limited usage of DVB-H TV video programmes, etc., over mobile broadband links as consumer disposable income rises in the most affluent customer segments globally. In summary we see a move to broadband content which requires support for isochronous media (audio, video and data where packet order and delays are important) requiring careful packet management in assembly and disassembly. Individual consumers will also generate their own content themselves, and exchange it. The rise of peer-to-peer content in all forms of media (video, audio, text) is expected to grow in importance, as much as commercial sale of content (TV, music, etc.) from the industry players - the content providers and aggregators. This will tend to increase the bandwidth required, and make the use of asymmetric networks (where only download speeds are high) far less viable as many customers will want to upload content as well. INFRASTRUCTURE TO 