 National Energy Policy Development Group, Washington, DC. INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030: TELECOM, LAND TRANSPORT, WATER AND ELECTRICITY - ISBN 92-64-02398-4 - © OECD 2006 ISBN 92-64-02398-4 Infrastructure to 2030 Telecom, Land Transport, Water and Electricity © OECD 2006 Chapter 2 Telecoms Infrastructure to 2030 Erik Bohlin,* Simon Forge** and Colin Blackman Chalmers University, Göteborg, Sweden. SCF Associates Ltd. Editor of Foresight and Shaping Tomorrow, United Kingdom. INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030: TELECOM, LAND TRANSPORT, WATER AND ELECTRICITY - ISBN 92-64-02398-4 - © OECD 2006 2. TELECOMS INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030 Executive summary Over the past 35 years investment in modern telecommunications infrastructure in the OECD area has generated significant economic growth. It has widened access for consumers and business to communications of all kinds while making significant reductions in transaction costs. 1 This is as true infrastructure provided by the Internet as for the successors to the public switched voice telephony, including the now disappearing fax, the current mobile and SMS services and the arrival of future lifestyle services over a broadband connection. The importance of telecommunications is reflected in its growing share of world output. The OECD notes that investment was 2.9% of gross fixed capital formation averaged over 2001-03. 2 Other sources cite an increasing investment over the past 25 years, from 1.6% of an estimated USD 20 trillion in 1975 to 2.9% of an estimated USD 40 trillion global GDP in 2000. 3 Telecommunications penetration was historically low in a number of OECD countries. In 1970, France, Portugal and Italy for example had only 8, 6, and 12 fixed telephone phones per 100 inhabitants respectively, while only the United States and Canada had near-universal service. 4 In 1995, just under half of the membership of the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), comprising 214 countries, had telecoms penetration rates below 8 per 100 inhabitants, the level attained by France in 1970. For this r