URE TO 2030: TELECOM, LAND TRANSPORT, WATER AND ELECTRICITY - ISBN 92-64-02398-4 - © OECD 2006 1. A CROSS-SECTORAL PERSPECTIVE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURES TO 2030 Figure 1.1. The axes of uncertainty and the four scenarios defined by combinations of those axes Accepting of intelligent infrastructure Perpetual intentions motion High- impact impact transport transport Tribal Urban trading colonies Resistant to intelligent infrastructure Source: DTI Foresight Intelligent Infrastructure Futures, The Scenarios - Towards 2055, Scenarios overview, p. 8 (2006). The two axes behind the four scenarios are based on two major uncertainties: whether or not environmental issues will impact the design of urban infrastructure (high or low impact axis) and whether or not people will accept intelligent infrastructure. As a result the four scenarios are coined "good intentions" or "perpetual motion" when intelligent infrastructure are accepted and "tribal trading" and "urban colonies" when there is strong resistance to them. The "perpetual motion" scenario which is the "hyper" one in this context (but not necessarily desirable or plausible) describes a society where people are "always on", meaning that the norm is constant information, consumption and competition. Continued globalisation, economic growth and demand for travel are on the rise. New cleaner fuel technologies, including nuclear capacity and renewable sources, have reduced dependency on oil. Automated highway systems and on-board driver assistance are largely in use by 2025 as well as all the instant communication devices and services. Workloads are high and stress is a growing problem. As recognised by the authors, this scenario represents the dominant discourse in western culture and assumes that constraints can be overcome by technology and innovation. It is the favourite scenario for the designers, suppliers and operators of intelligent infrastructure goods and services. As can be expected, this kind of scenario is "resource intensive" in financial a