ts of the future will be outside the current OECD countries. China and India will form at least half the world's economy by 2025, while China will surpass Japan to become the world's second economy by 2020. 20 The gap in infrastructure is in meeting their needs - for fast rollout, low cost and high accessibility. The nature of this demand favours radio technologies, either still emerging or yet to be developed, with lower cost backhaul and trunk infrastructures. Today's infrastructures can only meet their needs with piecemeal solutions. INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030: TELECOM, LAND TRANSPORT, WATER AND ELECTRICITY - ISBN 92-64-02398-4 © OECD 2. TELECOMS INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030 However, for the OECD community, there may be a difference in the type of growth. While the NICs extend their new technology infrastructures, on the OECD side there may be a capital deepening-putting in the new technologies, perhaps grown up in the NICs, to introduce new services and features. Such a next generation network (NGN) will change the nature and use of communications networks in the OECD countries (as noted earlier, to allow for telecommuting, e- commerce, etc.). This could be a quite different process, a progressive replacement, in contrast to the swift rollout of low cost networks in China which break new ground in the vast new markets of the infrastructure hungry NICs. Will past developments in demand for infrastructure continue in the future? With the growing importance of the knowledge-based economy, the demand for telecommunications and its infrastructure will continue to expand well beyond 2030. But what past developments will be continued to 2030? Three key demands can be identified that will continue to shape infrastructure spending. At the forefront of the continued demands for telecommunications infrastructure development over the past two decades has been the expanding mobile radio services. However, whether the current cellular model will continue in its present form is open to question. It is possible that the setbacks with 