 communications principles will drive business models more toward the data and computing industry and away from telecommunications industry models of incumbent market dominators or oligopolies. Future business models will be much lower and with simpler operational processes. Moreover we can expect to see content provision appearing in the traditional value chain, as shown below. Figure 2.23. There is a new mobile services operational chain in 3G cellular, in AWTs such as WiFi and in a more limited form, in 2.5G AWT, 3G (and 2.5 G in limited form) Product Network Content applications Network Enabling Customer such as ingest services games, also support Handsets operations Internet infrastructure provision search, etc. services access and m-commerce In such a scenario, regulation as regards business models and infrastructure will be more towards keeping infrastructure open and secure as well as ensuring competition. Eventually we may see a trend for business models to adapt as regulation becomes more regional (e.g. an EU regulator). Also at the same time there may be a trend towards global regulation, under WTO pressures on trade in services, which will converge media with telecommunications. A global regulator covering infrastructure operation may evolve by 2030, setting rules in a harmonised fashion, e.g. for security, safety and privacy but also for termination and interconnect charges and competition. However the major change for operators will be in accommodating global competition and its inevitable pressures towards cost-based pricing. Operators must be structured for far lower tariffs ("near-zero") and SO will tend be lean compared to today's business models of staffing levels and operational expenses such as IT systems, especially for billing and customer care. INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030: TELECOM, LAND TRANSPORT, WATER AND ELECTRICITY - ISBN 92-64-02398-4 © OECD 2006 2. TELECOMS INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030 Infrastructure competition may disappear as mobile and fixed interwork into converged operations which might b