ghtforward application of the %A-PCRS = S pr %A-GDPpc; the latter coming from the author's GDP and population growth forecasts - where: PRCSt = PRCSt - 10 [(1 + %A-PCRS)^10] (for t = 2010, 2020, 2030) Step 2: Application of rising asset value per pkm as GDPpc rise: The Step-1 estimate of PRCSt is transformed into units of pkm based on the initial asset value per pkm, and then this amount is multiplied by the current asset value per pkm (which may have risen as GDPpc rises) - which was estimated using the step-function shown above for PRCS. PRCSt = PRCSt 1 * Factor (depending on step-function) It should be noted that this has a relatively minor effect for countries whose GDPpc rises from USD 000 to USD 10 000 only. Step 3: Application of convergence in ratio of PRCS-GDP: Among the industrialised countries/regions for which this model is applied, the average ratio of PRCS-GDP is 0.127 (in 2000) - with a range from a low of 0.039 (Germany) to a high of 0.276 (Non-OECD Europe and Central Asia). As already noted, there is a general downward trend for most industrialised countries over time (e.g. US, EU-12 as a whole), and there is evidence and INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030: TELECOM, LAND TRANSPORT, WATER AND ELECTRICITY - ISBN 92-64-02398-4 © OECD 2006 4. KEY FACTORS DRIVING THE FUTURE DEMAND FOR SURFACE TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE widespread consensus that the current level of paved-road infrastructure in most Big 5 and developing countries is too low (i.e. sub-optimal). Among combined Big 5 and developing countries/regions, the average ratio of PRCS-GDP is 0.046 (in 2000) - with a range from a low of 0.012 (China) to a high of 0.138 (developing Europe and Central Asia). 1 It is therefore assumed that a lower-bound ratio of PRCS-GDP is about 0.050 (i.e. although the possible long-run "convergence point" may be somewhat higher). Countries whose ratio of PRCS-GDP fall below 0.050 will face pressure (or desire to) close the gap between their current level of PRCS-GDP and this "lower-bound". However, the elimination of this "infra