e viability of large-scale wireless technology and became the first victim of the assimilation process. Chapter 2 In less than five years, several alternatives to AMPS technology were developed including code division multiple access (CDMA), time division multiple access (TDMA), and new advanced mobile phone service (NAMPS) in the U.S., and global system for mobile communications (GSM) in Europe and Asia. In no time at all, these newer technologies, which provided more capacity, better quality and more reliable service, began to supersede AMPS, leaving it to die out. What is most interesting to note in Figure 2-5 is the incredibly short time it took for the technology to play out its lifecycle (10 years VS. 100 years), and that the technology itself became the limiting factor on the life and health of the approach. The PCS/GSM Lifecycle More recently, as we have already mentioned, the personal communications services (PCS) NAMPS, CDMA, TDMA and GSM technologies have superseded AMPS as the main wireless technology. While some AMPS networks still exist (in many cases they are guaranteed survival by regulatory requirements), the new generation of wireless PCS/GSM is now what we define as the wireless business. One of the most interesting and important characteristics of the current trend is trying to understand just how long the phases will last and when these technologies will be superceded by the next generation. See Figure 2-6. ?years year ? Figure 2-6 The GSM Lifecycle eXcellence in Telecommunications The Telco Churn Handbook For the most part, analysts and governments are amazed at how deeply wireless technology is penetrating the market. Some are talking about a 110% market penetration (meaning that everybody has at least one phone and some have more than that). Will PCS/GSM become self limiting the way AMPS was self limiting? Will the number of subscribers become too great to manage, or will the third generation broadband wireless make the investment in PCS/GSM obsolete in just a few years? Understanding the 