range of industrialised countries the ratio of 50% maintenance/50% new construction is often seen (more or less). The distinction between maintenance/ new construction is based on engineering criteria and the nature of the works involved, and not on life cycle asset management and asset value accounting. 13. Fay-Yepes (2003), Table 4. The equation also included an elasticity for population density (0.37 HIC; 0.46 L/MIC) and a coefficient on lagged asset value (0.28 HIC; 0.02 L/MIC). 14. Fay-Yepes (2003), Tables 5, 7. New construction costs were assumed to be about USD 0.41 M per km of two-lane paved road. 15. It should be noted that the author's starting paved road capital stock (2000) is USD 5 372 billion, compared to the Fay-Yepes value of USD 6 129 billion (i.e. 12% lower). 16. Canning-Pedroni (1999), p. 6. 17. Canning-Pedroni (1999), p. 31. 18. OECD (2004), Table 4, based on work by Johansson-Schipper (1997). 19. The Big 5 are China, India, Russia, Brazil and Indonesia. 20. Schipper and Marie-Lilliu (2001), Table 2; Zhongyuan et al. (2002), Table 3.5. The author's estimates for 2020 are: China-10.6; India-3.7 and Indonesia-3.8 - which are comparable for China, much lower for Indonesia, and much higher for India - although of a comparable magnitude. INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030: TELECOM, LAND TRANSPORT, WATER AND ELECTRICITY - ISBN 92-64-02398-4 - © OECD 2006 4. KEY FACTORS DRIVING THE FUTURE DEMAND FOR SURFACE TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE 21. One major anomaly in the author's "received" data (from IRF) is the China estimate of annual distance driven per vehicle of 50 000 km (reported consistently over three years). This is much higher than the industrialised and most developing countries. The author uses that figure - with a continuous decline to 35 000 km per vehicle by 2030. To the extent that this remains an over-estimation (e.g. relative to likely 5000 km convergence target), the vehicle-use result for China is overstated by a substantial amount (perhaps 50%). This has no bearing, however, on our other forecasts fo