shape of this new technology assimilation curve, determining your current market position on the curve, and anticipating how the curve reshape itself over time is critical to any wireless company's overall planning, including the decisions of how to manage churn. Wireless Implications The implications of the new technology assimilation curve are extremely important to wireless providers. Embedded within this chart are the keys to understanding much about your market position and how to manage and maintain it. When viewed from the perspective of the industry overall, and the lifecycle of the individual products, it is easy to see how customer churn is truly endemic to the telecommunications industry itself. LONG DISTANCE TECHNOLOGY CYCLES While the wireless industry tells a dramatic and easy to follow story about technological obsolescence and customer loyalty, the other forms of telecommunications are not immune to the phenomenon. It wasn't that long ago that the long distance industry began its own cycle of technological upheaval. Those familiar with the history of telecommunications and deregulation know that, in the U.S. at least, it was the alternative long distance carriers (MCI with its microwave based long distance network) that precipitated the famous Judge Green decision, making the U.S. a deregulated marketplace. Chapter 2 The battle for long distance customers and the continued increase in long distance efficiency and call quality have persistet ever since. Figure 2-7 shows a dramatic indication of exactly how much downward price pressure can be expected in the long distance industry over the next five years. 0.001 0.0001 0.00001 Figure 2-7: Reduced long distance costs (Source: Boston Consulting Group) This chart, prepared by the Boston Consulting Group, shows that the average wholesale cost of long distance is expected to drop from an initial value of 1/10 of one cent per minute in 1998 to as low as 1/100,000 of a cent per minute by 2002. How carriers choose to maintain their market shares and their p