structure gap" is allowed to extend over the entire 30-year period (or more for most countries/regions). The "makeup factors" are determined as: For the period 2000-10: for countries/regions with an infrastructure gap, 33% of the PRCS-gap which existed in 2000 (i.e. lagged 10 years) is expected to be closed over the 10-year period; For the period 2010-20: for countries/regions with an infrastructure gap, 66% of the PRCS-gap which existed in 2010 (i.e. lagged 10 years) is expected to be closed over the 10-year period; and For the period 2020-30: for countries/regions with an infrastructure gap, 100% of the PRCS-gap which existed in 2020 (i.e. lagged 10 years) is expected to be closed over the 10-year period. Because it is assumed that the 10-year lagged "infrastructure gap" is closed, none of the Big 5 or industrialised countries/regions with an "infrastructure gap" in 2000 actually reaches the 0.050 ratio of PRCS-GDP by 2030. In fact, even with the "convergence" approach (in Step 3), the average ratio of PRCS-GDP among combined Big 5 and developing countries/regions actually falls from 0.046 (in 2000) to 0.038 (in 2030). Clearly, a very-long term convergence process has been allowed for. PRCSt = PRCSt2 + "Makeup Factor" (as described above) The impact of "make-up" factors is most significant for China, Brazil, and developing East Asia-Pacific. New construction (USD billion): Base-level annual new construction (NC) figures (assumed to be for paved roads) are from IRF (2003), with "missing values" assumed based on known "matched countries" or otherwise "guestimated". The future levels of new construction for 2010, 2020 and 2030 were determined from the forecast values of PCRS, based on two components: the annualised value from growth in paved road asset value (D-PCRS) over the decade; and replacement capital needed to maintain the existing value of PCRS from 10 years ago. INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030: TELECOM, LAND TRANSPORT, WATER AND ELECTRICITY - ISBN 92-64-02398-4 - © OECD 2006 4. KEY FACTORS DRIVING THE FUTURE DEMAN