eloped regions where there is a lack of physical and institutional infrastructure capable of mitigating the impacts. It is the regions of the Middle East, North Africa, Southern Africa, South Asia and China that will be of particular concern, although stress also seems to be increasing elsewhere in countries such as Australia. Forced migration due to water shortages has begun in China, and India could be next (ACNU, 2004). By contrast, wealthier countries will be better able to cope and respond to these challenges through a range of adaptive measures, such as technological solutions, better demand management and long-term planning. INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030: TELECOM, LAND TRANSPORT, WATER AND ELECTRICITY - ISBN 92-64-02398-4 © OECD 2006 5. THE IMPACTS OF CHANGE ON THE LONG-TERM FUTURE DEMAND FOR WATER SECTOR INFRASTRUCTURE Water scarcity and competition has the potential to create international conflict where there are overlapping national boundaries. Some 40% of the world's population live in the 250 major river basins shared by more than one country. In Africa one-third of all water flows through the Congo, while only a tenth of the population lives within its basin. Economic development in Sudan and Ethiopia will draw on the Nile's waters, making the potential for conflict with adjacent states a real concern. Notwithstanding a number of established international mechanisms for mediating the problems of shared water resources, there is ongoing potential for water-related problems to contribute to regional tensions, such as in the Middle East (surface water resources) and Palestine (groundwater), and these may be exacerbated due to climate change. Oil and gas resources are of major significance for water services as technologies used for each stage of the process in the main rely on energy and transport. Increasing use of desalination is particularly vulnerable to energy shortages. Security of supply of energy may become problematic with competition in the Middle East. This risk may support both an aggressive appro