ring the distinction between daily commuter and intercity travel. 2. Future requirements for surface transport infrastructure Based on the models developed in the preceding section, future "new construction" infrastructure requirements for both roads and railways have been developed. It should be noted that the road-model is the more robust and carefully analysed model, while the rail-model should be treated as highly indicative. Road infrastructure requirements Table 4.5 summarises the key estimates for road new construction for the years 2000, 2010, 2020 and 2030. More complete results can be found in Annex 4.A6. INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030: TELECOM, LAND TRANSPORT, WATER AND ELECTRICITY - ISBN 92-64-02398-4 - © OECD 2006 4. KEY FACTORS DRIVING THE FUTURE DEMAND FOR SURFACE TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE Table 4.5. Road new construction requirements Region USD-B USD-B USD-B USD-B and (% GDP) and (% GDP) and (% GDP) and (% GDP) Industrialised 159.4 167.1 178.1 (0.31%) (0.44%) (0.37%) (0.32%) Non-OECD (0.05%) (0.22%) (0.19%) (0.21%) Developing Big 5 (0.07%) (0.19%) (0.17%) (0.16%) Others (0.08%) (0.20%) (0.21%) (0.26%) World 114.8 220.3 245.2 292.3 (0.21%) (0.33%) (0.28%) (0.25%) These road new construction estimates of between USD 200-300 billion/year over 2005-30 are considerably higher than the 2000 base year levels, and comparable in order of magnitude to the previous forecast of Fay-Yepes (USD 260 billion/year for 2005-10). As already noted, the latter was based on a roughly equal ratio of net additions to the capital stock and replacement capital requirements. This forecast models a much higher requirement for replacement (i.e. maintenance) construction spending. Replacement construction to maintain the existing capital stock value is particularly important in countries/regions that have large base year stocks of road capital (especially former communist states of Europe and Central Asia²2. With respect to the former, the significant additional new construction requirements (over base year spending) are relatively eve