c innovation at Layer 1 and Layer 2 and provides the basis for a plausible anticipation that mobile broadband will capture more access traffic from other guided and unguided access options than might have been originally expected with the only real caveat being power efficiency. To an extent scheduling increases user device power efficiency but adequate gains are going to require a combination of algorithmic and materials innovation, a topic to which we return in later chapters. Telecommunications Economies of Scale 4.1 Market Size and Projections The starting point of this chapter is the remarkable rise of mobile connectivity relative to fixed connectivity as a percentage of the world market expressed in terms of global connections. Figure 4.1 is sourced from our colleagues at The Mobile World, as are all the market and business statistics used in this book, and shows a crossover point in 2002 when mobile matched fixed for the first time and then a year-on-year transition to where we are today with an almost five-to-one relationship. This of course has had a profound and largely positive impact on the part of the industry supply chain that services the mobile market, though we argued in our introduction that overspending on spectral investment has constrained R and D spending in some critical areas including some areas of RF component innovation that in turn has made it more difficult to get a return from that investment. Table 4.1 provides a simplified overview of this supply chain. The arrows denote risk and value distribution that can either be horizontal or vertical. Risk is a poison chalice that tends to get moved around. Sometimes some parts of the supply chain take the risk and others realise the value. The risk-reward equation, as we shall see, is influenced significantly by market volume. Figure 4.2 shows actual sales to 2010 and forecast sales through to 2013. Specifically in this chapter and the next we set out to track the supply-chain changes that have occurred between 2007 and 2012, a period in whi