IEA (2005c), Transmission Reliability and Power System Security in Competitive Electricity Markets, OECD, Paris. Izaguirre, A. (2004), "Private Infrastructure" in Public Policy for the Private Sector, World Bank, Washington, DC. TERI (Tata Energy Research Institute) (2004), TERI Energy Data, Directory and Yearbook 2003/4, TERI Press, New Delhi. INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030: TELECOM, LAND TRANSPORT, WATER AND ELECTRICITY - ISBN 92-64-02398-4 - © OECD 2006 ISBN 92-64-02398-4 Infrastructure to 2030 Telecom, Land Transport, Water and Electricity © OECD 2006 Chapter 4 Key Factors Driving the Future Demand for Surface Transport Infrastructure and Services David Stambrook* Virtuosity Consulting, Ottawa, Canada. INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030: TELECOM, LAND TRANSPORT, WATER AND ELECTRICITY - ISBN 92-64-02398-4 - © OECD 2006 4. KEY FACTORS DRIVING THE FUTURE DEMAND FOR SURFACE TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE Executive Summary This chapter assesses the likely impact of key social, economic, environmental, technological and political factors on future (30-year) demand for road and rail transport infrastructure requirements. Road transport infrastructure requirements (2000 to 2030) The key drivers of road transport infrastructure requirements are: a) the current existing stock of road infrastructure, as measured by asset value; and b) GDP growth, which reflects population growth and per capita income growth. Other factors are considered to have marginal impact around a base-case forecast determined by these economic factors for road transport. Road transport infrastructure requirements (new construction) of between USD 220-290 billion/year are forecast between 2010 and 30; with perhaps as much as 20% of this amount subject to deliberate policy intervention (e.g. fiscal restraint, sustainable development, modal shift to rail) efforts to achieve greater infrastructure efficiency, reduce road congestion and/or improve deteriorating road quality. The largest component of road infrastructure requirement arises from the need to replace/upgrade existin