hat target future churners. Preemptive Campaign Planning One of the best targeted predictive model is one that predicts a customer's churn activity SO far in advance that we are able to create churn prevention campaigns (preemptive campaigns and campaigns Chapter 15 that anticipate churn reasons to prevent them before they become imminent). Last-Minute Churn Prevention Campaigns The most common application of the targeted churn model is to develop one that predicts which customers are most likely to churn in the near future. Although a preemptive campaign must know about imminent churn many months in advance, a last-minute churn prevention campaign will only need to predict the churn event one or two months ahead of time. Segment Management Another useful application for this model is to run targeted predictive models for those segments of customers that we are the most interested in managing. By running this kind of model on a regular basis, the segment manager can maintain retention targets for the segment in the best possible manner and within the established limits. Techniques for Generating Targeted Predictive Models The problem with creating a list of people who are likely to churn is a bit more complicated than the problem of predicting how many will churn. In the first case, we need to know much more about individuals, their likes and dislikes, and their likelihood to behave in a particular way ( the latter case becoming more of an impersonal raw numbers game). Step One - Accumulation of Detailed Individual Customer History Just as the prediction of the raw numbers models depends on the availability of information about all customers who churned, the same is true of our targeted model. The difference here is that, instead of looking at the aggregate behaviors of large groups of people, we now look at the specific behavior of individuals. The first thing that the analyst does is collect all information possible about all customers that have and have not churned for a given period eXcellence in Telecommunic