 model assumptions. 33. From 290 M vkm per billion USD-GDP (2000) to 323 M vkm per billion USD-GDP (2030), a cumulative growth of 11%. 34. From 3 560 M vkm per billion USD-road asset value (2000) to 5 280 M vkm per billion USD-road asset value (2030), a cumulative growth of 48%. 35. Lakshmanan-Anderson (2002), p. 10. 36. Lakshmanan-Anderson (2002), p. 17. 37. OECD (2004), p. 58. 38. Hilferink (2003), p. 80, specifically dealing with the EU. 39. Reynaud (2004), p. 10. INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030: TELECOM, LAND TRANSPORT, WATER AND ELECTRICITY - ISBN 92-64-02398-4 © OECD 2006 4. KEY FACTORS DRIVING THE FUTURE DEMAND FOR SURFACE TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE 40. Population ageing will not be operative over the 2000-30 period in most Big 5 and developing countries. 41. Tardieu (2005), Slide 37 which shows EU growth of 1.5% for tonnes, 2.7% for tonne-km, 3.4% for vehicle-km, and 4-5% for corridor-specific vehicle-km. 42. Reynaud (2004), p. 8. 43. UK-RAE (2005), p. 33. 44. Specific examples include: US national highways (1950s security); Canada railways (1880s land settlement, response to annexation threat); China-Tibet political linkage (ongoing); Brazil-Amazon resource development (1970s-ongoing). 45. See Ackroyd (2001), for detail on London development over the millennia. 46. For example, vehicle ownership, road/rail network lengths, and road/rail capital value per route-km are all estimated at the national level for countries for which data are available from the primary sources (e.g. CIA Factbook, IRF Road Statistics). These national data reflect base-year (roughly 2000) experience resulting from variation in spatial distribution, population density, topographical features, demographics, etc. 47. The concept that taxes represent a "price" for public services is well accepted in theory in the public economics literature. As more public services have become "commercialised" with explicit user charges, there has been growing acceptance of this in practice. However, generalised road access has not been one of the public service