tional fibre drops, in order to avoid the poor local infrastructure. Now this model of "enclave communications" is no longer good enough. An INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030: TELECOM, LAND TRANSPORT, WATER AND ELECTRICITY - ISBN 92-64-02398-4 © OECD 2006 2. TELECOMS INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030 indigenous local communications infrastructure is increasingly required, not just as an international access infrastructure, but for communications to interwork within the local economy. Brazil Brazil was chosen as an interesting comparison, to understand how it may evolve, perhaps as China has done, and India may do. The economic base is far more advanced than China or India with GDP per head at USD 3 200 in 2005 and GDP in 2005 projected to be 3.5%, 13 an indication of how investment infrastructure is building. Brazil has been developing only slowly owing to political and financial crises. Its population has doubled over the past 30 years although the average number of children per mother has reduced from its 1970 figure of 6 to about 2, so that modest prosperity is reaching more of the population. In this situation of disposable income, mobile penetration has reached over 35% of the population, far outstripping its fixed lines (under 25%). Deregulation has promoted strong mobile competition, not just between cellular operators but effectively in infrastructure competition. Table 2.6. Telecom Diffusion within Brazil's population Brazil Telephone Mobiles Internet Population Population Population Mobile Mobile Fixed lines density as % of total (million) users (million) (million) subscribers (per 100 (x 1 000) (per 100 telephone (% of (x 1 000) population) population) subscribers population) 42 382 23.46 65 605 36.32 Source: US Census Bureau, OECD, International Telecommunication Union. 1. Past trends in infrastructure investment This section briefly reviews the telecommunication infrastructure developments of the past 25 years by examining four areas of trends in infrastructure investment: Past demand and the main drivers. Current state o