to margins will be based on successfully creating lean operations, for cost-based pricing - i.e. understanding the cost structure for very small margins per customer. This is a major challenge for conventional operators. INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030: TELECOM, LAND TRANSPORT, WATER AND ELECTRICITY - ISBN 92-64-02398-4 © OECD 2006 2. TELECOMS INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030 The coming supplier business models With the evolution of the infrastructure, the supplier business models will change towards: Models within the software industry - but with use of open source software as foundation. Far more emphasis on design and consumers with socioeconomic studies of new usages, picking up early demands/trends/fashions and feeding them into far more formalised innovation and R&D business processes, as the handset manufacturers (Motorola and Samsung particularly) have been starting to do. The move to simplicity and ease of use will be the theme for coming design as consumers are increasingly baffled by the complexity of a richer offer of services (the Korean VCR syndrome). Very low cost manufacturing - in response to the above, to produce simple to use, sophisticated networks and devises for a mass market. Conclusion The conclusion is fairly stark. New infrastructures will accompany new business models. They will tend to make the current business models untenable SO current operators must adapt, or fail. 6. Telecommunications substitution and secondary effects Identifying telecommunications mechanisms Telecommunications has the potential to substitute for other infrastructure elements using suitably priced telecommunications services. For instance, videoconferencing can substitute for travel to a face-to-face meeting. This section explores the significance of such substitutions for investments in other infrastructure types, and the degree to which this might happen in OECD countries and in the NICs by 2030. The section also explores secondary effects of telecommunication usage and substitution on other types of infrastructure. For instance