be naive to imagine that dramatic change in infrastructure will happen globally as a big bang, or that it will happen very soon. Introduction will always be progressive, the new interworking with the existing. It may be at least a decade, or perhaps two, before such large changes could be effected. It may be many years before any move towards new infrastructure is even made, depending on the region. Vested interests in the status quo in telecommunications infrastructures have powerful arguments to protect their investments when speaking to government and regulators. However there are regions in which it could happen far faster than others. First movers will be those where the investment is available and the current operators are weak while the infrastructure is not deeply entrenched in the fabric of the economy. This favours those having the worst infrastructure today but the available capital, if the return on investment can be justified by strengthened telecommunications. Let us examine the OECD regions and the large developing economies, in order of probability of migration: The obvious candidate for a first mover is thus India, not China. In China, infrastructure is further advanced - it will be less likely to change very quickly. In India, the nature of the telecommunications infrastructure and the ITC industry structure implies large changes could happen more quickly, perhaps piecemeal, backed by poorer local state governments wishing to catch up, and also central government. China and especially South Korea are already starting with tentative steps in this direction and Korea's current 5-year plan (IT 839) could be diverted in this direction as IPv6 working is already in the plan. However the inertia of vested interests and the satisfaction with the current course will delay moves to a new infrastructure. In China perhaps after 2012, large-scale new developments could begin as the rural areas are upgraded to match the coastal regions and there is less investment to amortise. INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030: TELECOM