se concerns with con- spiracy theories, organizations like CASPIAN serve the same purpose in the technology world that Greenpeace serves in the oil industry: They force the industry to be at the top of its game by creating public aware- ness of potential hazards, real or not. RFID does need to be monitored, and while concerns over its abuse should be heard, the advantages that RFID brings in such applications as security, law enforcement, defense, health care, product manufacturing, veterinary medicine, food and water protection, and supply-chain management far outweigh the risks associ- ated with the potential for misuse of the technology. What's Next? So what's coming among the wireless ranks? Within the next 18 months, expect significant segment buy-down and consolidation as the players close competitive ranks. I would expect to see a renewed focus on the applications that wireless technology can most effectively deliver to mobile users, particularly voice, e-mail, instant messaging, and perhaps some set of value-added services: games, downloadable ring-tones, photo sharing, multipoint IM communication, etc. I would also expect to see the emergence of location-based services that rely on GPS technology to enhance intelligent purchasing applications and guarantee carrier-grade requirements such as E911. RFID will undoubtedly play a growing role as well; already it is showing up in retail, health care, and passport covers. Downloaded from Digital Engineering Library @ McGraw-Hill (www.digitalengineeringlibrary.com) Copyright © 2004 The McGraw-Hill Companies. All rights reserved. Any use is subject to the Terms of Use as given at the website. Access Technologies Access Technologies Finally, I would expect the price wars to continue as wireless access seeks its natural and acceptable price level in the face of growing com- petition among the players. Satellite Technology In October 1945, Arthur C. Clarke published a paper in Wireless World entitled, "Extra-Terrestrial-Relays: Can Rocket Stations Give World- Wide R