mous with the power to be rolled out instantly, to be set up in ad hoc deployments as required. New types of networks based on mesh technology and cognitive radio front-ends can be expected, which can be instantly rolled out. Insecurity and ICT A further trend that will influence infrastructure is the build-up of insecurity by users at several levels - for personal safety as well as for protection against identity theft, fraud through a widening variety of mobile and Internet scams as well as transaction security for shopping and banking. Here we have to ask - what is infrastructure? For a secure Internet access it is no longer just outside plant. It is layer of addressing, session control, authentication of identification of senders INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030: TELECOM, LAND TRANSPORT, WATER AND ELECTRICITY - ISBN 92-64-02398-4 © OECD 2006 2. TELECOMS INFRASTRUCTURE TO 2030 and receivers. Thus infrastructure in a world of "man in the middle" attacks and other more sophisticated fraud mechanism needs a layer of in-built security for authentication and authorisation with audit for access control. Conclusion The telecommunications industry has been notoriously poor at forecasting the take-up of new technologies and services, largely because market forecasts have often been supply driven and technocentric and do not focus on understanding consumers' behaviour and their needs - and what they will pay for. In the recent past this led to misplaced optimism for technologies such as ISDN and WAP. Even now, the industry is repeating the same mistakes. Its forecasts for 3G mobile, based on a combination of extrapolation of past trends and wishful thinking, has led to overoptimistic forecasts for the takeup of multimedia services. A better approach to forecasting is to identify and understand the underlying trends and their drivers, and to take a demand-driven approach. Firstly a more global view of the market is now essential. This perspective provides an understanding that the overall telecommunications market has the potentia