I've been an investor for close to 50 years, all the way back when Nixon cajoled Arthur Burns to lower interest rates in 1972 in order to shore up his re-election. Of course, that action, along with two unexpected and huge oil shocks in the 1970s contributed mightily to the inflation later in that decade and into 1980-81.The Fed is finally doing the right thing after close to 15 years of zero or near zero Fed funds rates. We all know how that, along with trillions of dollars of bond purchases (aka,QE), stoked massive asset inflation (i.e. pro sports teams saw their values skyrocket beyond belief due to virtually zero financing of the debt, not to mention the vastly inflated value of real estate).Yet, all I've heard for close to a year now (and the Fed only began raising rates in March 2022, and by a measly 1/4 point) is that we're on the cusp of, or in a recession. Well, perhaps high tech, which saw values skyrocket as well from April 2020 to Dec. 2021, is in a bit of a retrenchment, but the rest of the economy, despite inflation, is moving along.Today's job numbers belie the doomsayers...227,000 new jobs created in Dec with a still close to 11 millions job openings out there. We are hardly in a recession. The Fed will certainly slow down its pace of rate increases, and next week's CPI will go a long way to determine if the Feb. 1 increase is a 1/4 or 1/2 point. But the doomsayers will still be out there no matter what.

I've been an investor for close to 50 years, all the way back when Nixon cajoled Arthur Burns to lower interest rates in 1972 in order to shore up his re-election. Of course, that action, along with two unexpected and huge oil shocks in the 1970s contributed mightily to the inflation later in that decade and into 1980-81.The Fed is finally doing the right thing after close to 15 years of zero or near zero Fed funds rates. We all know how that, along with trillions of dollars of bond purchases (aka,QE), stoked massive asset inflation (i.e. pro sports teams saw their values skyrocket beyond belief due to virtually zero financing of the debt, not to mention the vastly inflated value of real estate).Yet, all I've heard for close to a year now (and the Fed only began raising rates in March 2022, and by a measly 1/4 point) is that we're on the cusp of, or in a recession. Well, perhaps high tech, which saw values skyrocket as well from April 2020 to Dec. 2021, is in a bit of a retrenchment, but the rest of the economy, despite inflation, is moving along.Today's job numbers belie the doomsayers...227,000 new jobs created in Dec with a still close to 11 millions job openings out there. We are hardly in a recession. The Fed will certainly slow down its pace of rate increases, and next week's CPI will go a long way to determine if the Feb. 1 increase is a 1/4 or 1/2 point. But the doomsayers will still be out there no matter what.

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