Decline : Compared to what ?IMF Forecast for 2023China   Real GDP Growth 2023, annual percent change   +4.4%                        US   Real GDP Growth 2023, annual percent change      +1.0 %                     Compared to the US it will be doing splendidlyAs to declining population t is by now means clear that this will be a permanent change. Indeed, thismight be a “blip” that disappears as the Chinese economy recovers  (the IMF predicts that its economy will grow in 2023 by 4.4% vs 1% in the US)And the reasons are* COVID-19 pandemic has greatly suppressed childbirth in the past three years   People planning a baby were advised against getting vaccinated and those who had got infected were advised against planning a baby till six months after their nucleic acid test turned negative.* The effect of the three-child policy introduced in June 2021 still  remains to be seen.. 20th CPC National Congress legislation includes measures  encourage childbirths in the coming years. (Although no where near as whatFrance does: on average 170 euros ($209) per month for each child)But assume it does drop*  If Chinese couples were to birth to just one child, China would still have a 1.2 billion population by 2050. And China will still have 600-650 million people in the age group of 16-59 years by the middle of this century, larger than all the labor force in developed countries combined. Back to France:  Nothing prevents China to do the same

Decline : Compared to what ?IMF Forecast for 2023China   Real GDP Growth 2023, annual percent change   +4.4%                        US   Real GDP Growth 2023, annual percent change      +1.0 %                     Compared to the US it will be doing splendidlyAs to declining population t is by now means clear that this will be a permanent change. Indeed, thismight be a “blip” that disappears as the Chinese economy recovers  (the IMF predicts that its economy will grow in 2023 by 4.4% vs 1% in the US)And the reasons are* COVID-19 pandemic has greatly suppressed childbirth in the past three years   People planning a baby were advised against getting vaccinated and those who had got infected were advised against planning a baby till six months after their nucleic acid test turned negative.* The effect of the three-child policy introduced in June 2021 still  remains to be seen.. 20th CPC National Congress legislation includes measures  encourage childbirths in the coming years. (Although no where near as whatFrance does: on average 170 euros ($209) per month for each child)But assume it does drop*  If Chinese couples were to birth to just one child, China would still have a 1.2 billion population by 2050. And China will still have 600-650 million people in the age group of 16-59 years by the middle of this century, larger than all the labor force in developed countries combined. Back to France:  Nothing prevents China to do the same

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