▁the ▁A LP ▁in ▁its ▁history ▁was ▁at ▁the ▁ 1 9 4 3 ▁election ▁on ▁an ▁estimate ▁of ▁ 5 8 . 2 ▁per ▁cent . ▁ ▁A ▁weight ed ▁collaboration ▁of ▁all ▁pol ling ▁since ▁Rud d ▁assumed ▁the ▁A LP ▁leadership ▁shows ▁an ▁average ▁Labor ▁ 2 PP ▁figure ▁of ▁ 5 7 ▁per ▁cent ▁compared ▁with ▁the ▁Co al ition ' s ▁ 4 3 ▁per ▁cent , ▁and ▁Rud d ' s ▁consistent ▁out pol ling ▁of ▁Howard ▁as ▁preferred ▁prime ▁minister , ▁something ▁not ▁achieved ▁under ▁previous ▁leaders ▁Mark ▁L ath am , ▁Kim ▁Be az ley ▁or ▁Simon ▁Cre an . ▁ ▁By ▁the ▁time ▁the ▁writ s ▁were ▁issued , ▁the ▁Co al ition ▁was ▁well ▁behind ▁Labor ▁in ▁opinion ▁pol ling , ▁which ▁election ▁anal yst ▁Anton y ▁Green ▁believed ▁to ▁show ▁Labor ▁winning ▁government ▁" in ▁a ▁can ter ". ▁ ▁According ▁to ▁Green , ▁this ▁was ▁a ▁nearly ▁exact ▁revers al ▁of ▁the ▁run - up ▁to ▁the ▁ 1 9 9 6 ▁election . ▁ ▁The ▁Co al ition ▁was ▁running ▁ahead ▁of ▁Labor ▁in ▁two - party ▁opinion ▁pol ling ▁for ▁much ▁of ▁ 1 9 9 5 ▁and ▁ 1 9 9 6 , ▁however ▁the ▁mant le ▁of ▁preferred ▁prime ▁minister ▁regularly ▁switched ▁between ▁Howard ▁and ▁Paul ▁Ke ating . ▁ ▁Pos sum s ▁Pol ly t ics , ▁an ▁anonymous ▁web log , ▁stated ▁that ▁due ▁to ▁the ▁une ven ▁nature ▁of ▁the ▁sw ings , ▁where