▁( when ▁Gar z arel li ' s ▁fund ▁out per formed ▁the ▁S & P ▁ 5 0 0 ▁by ▁about ▁ 2 6 ▁percent ) ▁still ▁lost . ▁What ▁she ▁saved ▁her ▁invest ors ▁by ▁avoid ing ▁the ▁crash ▁she ▁lost ▁back ▁( and ▁then ▁some ) ▁in ▁the ▁years ▁that ▁followed . ▁ ▁Since ▁then , ▁her ▁record ▁has ▁been ▁mixed . ▁For ▁instance , ▁on ▁July ▁ 2 3 , ▁ 1 9 9 6 , ▁she ▁told ▁clients ▁that ▁U . S . ▁stock s ▁could ▁fall ▁ 1 5 % ▁to ▁ 2 0 % ▁from ▁pe aks ▁reached ▁earlier ▁in ▁the ▁summer . ▁The ▁Dow ▁Jones ▁industrial ▁average ▁closed ▁that ▁day ▁at ▁ 5 , 3 4 6 . 5 5 -- and ▁had ▁ris en ▁ 4 5 % ▁by ▁Nov ▁ 1 9 9 7 . ▁ ▁Gar z arel li ▁Research ▁ ▁Gar z arel li ▁was ▁a ▁partner ▁and ▁man aging ▁director ▁at ▁several ▁major ▁bro ker age ▁fir ms ▁until ▁ 1 9 9 5 ▁when ▁she ▁founded ▁her ▁own ▁business , ▁Gar z arel li ▁Research , ▁Inc .. ▁For ▁eleven ▁years ▁she ▁had ▁been ▁ranked ▁as ▁Wall ▁Street ' s ▁top ▁Quant itative ▁Anal yst ▁in ▁Institution al ▁In vest or ▁magazine ' s ▁poll . ▁ ▁In ▁the ▁spring ▁of ▁ 2 0 0 3 , ▁shortly ▁before ▁the ▁infl ation ▁adjust ed ▁S & P ▁ 5 0 0 ▁fell , ▁she ▁predicted ▁" a ▁stock ▁market