$ 2 0 7 ▁billion ▁in ▁ 2 0 0 9 , ▁with ▁a ▁small ▁sur plus ▁by ▁ 2 0 1 2 . ▁The ▁C BO ▁noted , ▁however , ▁that ▁this ▁projection ▁" om its ▁a ▁significant ▁amount ▁of ▁sp ending ▁that ▁will ▁occur ▁this ▁year ▁— ▁and ▁possibly ▁for ▁some ▁time ▁to ▁come ▁— ▁for ▁U . S . ▁military ▁operations ▁in ▁Ira q ▁and ▁Afghan istan ▁and ▁for ▁other ▁activities ▁related ▁to ▁the ▁global ▁War ▁on ▁T error ism ." ▁The ▁projection ▁also ▁assumes ▁that ▁the ▁Bush ▁tax ▁cut s ▁" will ▁exp ire ▁as ▁scheduled ▁on ▁December ▁ 3 1 , ▁ 2 0 1 0 ." ▁If , ▁as ▁Bush ▁has ▁ur ged , ▁the ▁tax ▁cut s ▁were ▁to ▁be ▁extended , ▁then ▁" the ▁budget ▁out look ▁for ▁ 2 0 1 5 ▁would ▁change ▁from ▁a ▁sur plus ▁of ▁US $ 1 4 1 ▁billion ▁to ▁a ▁def ic it ▁of ▁US $ 2 8 2 ▁billion ." ▁Other ▁econom ists ▁have ▁disput ed ▁this , ▁arg uing ▁that ▁the ▁C BO ▁does ▁not ▁use ▁dynamic ▁scoring , ▁to ▁take ▁into ▁account ▁what ▁effect ▁tax ▁cut s ▁would ▁have ▁on ▁the ▁economy . ▁ ▁Federal ▁sp ending ▁in ▁constant ▁dollars ▁increased ▁under ▁Bush ▁by ▁ 2 6 % ▁in ▁his ▁first ▁four ▁and ▁a ▁half ▁years . ▁Non - def ense ▁sp ending ▁increased ▁ 1 8 % ▁in ▁that ▁time . ▁Of ▁the ▁US $ 2 . 4 ▁tr ill ion ▁budget ed