▁of ▁amateur ▁satellite ▁spot ters — more ▁accurate ▁than ▁for ▁most ▁observations ▁of ▁objects ▁in ▁space . ▁ ▁Future ▁predictions ▁ ▁Sim ulations ▁over ▁a ▁ 3 - mill ion - year ▁times pan ▁found ▁a ▁probability ▁of ▁the ▁Road ster ▁coll iding ▁with ▁Earth ▁at ▁approximately ▁ 6 %, ▁or ▁with ▁Ven us ▁at ▁approximately ▁ 2 . 5 %. ▁These ▁prob abilities ▁of ▁collision ▁are ▁similar ▁to ▁those ▁of ▁other ▁near - E arth ▁objects . ▁The ▁half - life ▁for ▁the ▁tested ▁or bits ▁was ▁calculated ▁as ▁approximately ▁ 2 0 ▁million ▁years , ▁but ▁with ▁traject ories ▁varying ▁significantly ▁following ▁a ▁close ▁approach ▁to ▁the ▁Earth – M oon ▁system ▁in ▁ 2 0 9 1 . ▁ ▁Mus k ▁had ▁originally ▁spec ulated ▁that ▁the ▁car ▁could ▁dr ift ▁in ▁space ▁for ▁a ▁billion ▁years . ▁According ▁to ▁chem ist ▁William ▁Car roll , ▁solar ▁radiation , ▁cos mic ▁radiation , ▁and ▁mic rom eteor oid ▁impact s ▁will ▁struct ur ally ▁damage ▁the ▁car ▁over ▁time . ▁Rad iation ▁will ▁eventually ▁break ▁down ▁any ▁material ▁with ▁carbon – car bon ▁b onds , ▁including ▁carbon ▁fi ber ▁parts . ▁T ires , ▁paint , ▁pl astic ▁and ▁le ather ▁might ▁last ▁only ▁about ▁a ▁year , ▁while ▁carbon ▁fi ber ▁parts ▁will ▁last ▁consider ably ▁longer . ▁Event ually , ▁only ▁the ▁al umin um ▁frame , ▁in ert ▁met als , ▁and ▁glass ▁not ▁sh atter ed ▁by ▁meteor oid s ▁will ▁remain . ▁ ▁Pot