▁however , ▁that ▁it ▁is ▁unlikely ▁that ▁Iran ▁would ▁flat ly ▁ignore ▁international ▁re actions ▁and ▁develop ▁nuclear ▁weapons ▁anyway . ▁ ▁A ▁ 2 0 0 5 ▁US ▁National ▁Int elligence ▁Est imate ▁stated ▁that ▁Iran ▁was ▁ten ▁years ▁from ▁making ▁a ▁nuclear ▁weapon . ▁ ▁In ▁ 2 0 0 6 ▁Ernst ▁U hr lau , ▁the ▁head ▁of ▁German ▁intelligence ▁service , ▁said ▁Te h ran ▁would ▁not ▁be ▁able ▁to ▁produce ▁enough ▁material ▁for ▁a ▁nuclear ▁bomb ▁before ▁ 2 0 1 0 ▁and ▁would ▁only ▁be ▁able ▁to ▁make ▁it ▁into ▁a ▁weapon ▁by ▁about ▁ 2 0 1 5 . ▁ ▁A ▁ 2 0 0 7 ▁annual ▁review ▁the ▁International ▁Institute ▁for ▁Str ateg ic ▁Studies ▁in ▁London ▁stated ▁that ▁" If ▁and ▁when ▁Iran ▁does ▁have ▁ 3 , 0 0 0 ▁cent rif ug es ▁operating ▁smooth ly , ▁the ▁II SS ▁estimates ▁it ▁would ▁take ▁an ▁additional ▁ 9 - 1 1 ▁months ▁to ▁produce ▁ 2 5   kg ▁of ▁highly ▁en rich ed ▁u ran ium , ▁enough ▁for ▁one ▁impl os ion - type ▁weapon . ▁That ▁day ▁is ▁still ▁ 2 – 3 ▁years ▁away ▁at ▁the ▁earliest ." ▁ ▁The ▁former ▁head ▁of ▁the ▁I AE A , ▁Moh amed ▁El Bar ade i , ▁said ▁on ▁ 2 4 ▁May ▁ 2 0 0 7 ▁that ▁Iran ▁could ▁take ▁between ▁ 3 ▁and ▁ 8 ▁years ▁to ▁make ▁a ▁bomb ▁if ▁it ▁went ▁down ▁that ▁route .