, ▁six ▁h urr ican es , ▁and ▁two ▁major ▁h urr ican es , ▁with ▁an ▁accum ulated ▁cy clone ▁energy ▁( ACE ) ▁index ▁of ▁between ▁ 6 6 ▁and ▁ 1 0 3 ▁units . ▁ ▁Pre - season ▁forec asts ▁The ▁first ▁forec ast ▁for ▁the ▁year ▁was ▁issued ▁by ▁C SU ▁on ▁December ▁ 1 1 , ▁who ▁anticip ated ▁that ▁one ▁of ▁four ▁different ▁scenarios ▁could ▁occur . ▁The ▁scenario ▁considered ▁most ▁likely ▁was ▁that ▁Atlantic ▁mult ide c adal ▁oscill ation ▁( AM O ) ▁and ▁therm oh al ine ▁circul ation ▁( TH C ) ▁would ▁be ▁stronger , ▁but ▁effects ▁from ▁El ▁Ni ño ▁would ▁remain , ▁resulting ▁in ▁a ▁slightly ▁above ▁average ▁season . ▁The ▁next ▁most ▁likely ▁scenario ▁was ▁that ▁both ▁the ▁A MO ▁and ▁TH C ▁would ▁strength en ▁and ▁the ▁El ▁Ni ño ▁effects ▁would ▁ce ase ▁to ▁exist , ▁causing ▁a ▁well ▁above ▁average ▁season . ▁In ▁the ▁other ▁two ▁scenarios , ▁which ▁were ▁given ▁the ▁same ▁probability ▁of ▁occurrence , ▁the ▁A MO ▁and ▁TH C ▁would ▁weak en ▁and ▁the ▁effects ▁of ▁El ▁Ni ño ▁would ▁either ▁disappear ▁or ▁some ▁would ▁remain , ▁resulting ▁in ▁either ▁a ▁near ▁average ▁or ▁well ▁below ▁average ▁season . ▁ ▁T SR ▁subsequently ▁issued ▁their ▁first ▁out look ▁for ▁the ▁ 2 0 1 6 ▁season ▁during ▁December ▁ 1 6 , ▁ 2 0 1 5 ▁and ▁predicted ▁that ▁activity ▁would ▁be ▁about ▁ 2 0 % ▁below ▁the ▁