▁an ▁emer ging ▁economy ▁gets ▁hot , ▁it ▁will ▁grow ▁fast ▁for ▁a ▁de cade , ▁maybe ▁two , ▁then ▁back slide ▁when ▁its ▁leaders ▁grow ▁compla cent . ▁The ▁result ▁is ▁that ▁most ▁emer ging ▁nations ▁remain ▁emer ging ▁nations ▁and ▁very ▁few ▁( including ▁Japan , ▁Korea , ▁Taiwan , ▁and ▁Singapore ) ▁have ▁grown ▁fast ▁enough ▁for ▁long ▁enough ▁to ▁emer ge ▁into ▁the ▁ranks ▁of ▁developed ▁nations . ▁ ▁One ▁of ▁Sh arma ’ s ▁fundamental ▁messages ▁is ▁that ▁anal yst s ▁need ▁to ▁study ▁nations ▁as ▁individual ▁cases , ▁not ▁as ▁part ▁of ▁fac eless ▁group ings , ▁in ▁order ▁to ▁understand ▁which ▁ones ▁have ▁a ▁chance ▁to ▁excel . ▁ ▁Sh arma ▁refers ▁to ▁those ▁with ▁the ▁bright est ▁prospect s ▁as ▁" Bre ak out ▁Nations ," ▁which ▁he ▁defines ▁as ▁an ▁economy ▁that ▁can ▁sust ain ▁faster ▁growth ▁than ▁pe ers ▁in ▁the ▁same ▁per ▁cap ita ▁income ▁category ▁for ▁the ▁for ese e able ▁future , ▁which ▁he ▁cons iders ▁no ▁more ▁than ▁five ▁to ▁ten ▁years . ▁ ▁Sh arma ▁has ▁been ▁a ▁sharp ▁critic ▁of ▁forec aster s ▁who ▁attempt ▁to ▁make ▁predictions ▁for ▁the ▁coming ▁century . ▁▁ ▁This ▁nation - f oc used ▁approach ▁under p ins ▁ ▁Sh arma ’ s ▁ske pt ical ▁view ▁of ▁the ▁h ype ▁surrounding ▁the ▁" BR IC " ▁nations , ▁the ▁catch - all ▁ac ron ym ▁for ▁the ▁big ▁emer ging ▁mark ets , ▁Brazil , ▁Russia , ▁India ▁and ▁China