1 9 1 3 – 1 9 3 0 ) ▁was ▁marked ▁by ▁a ▁local ▁over building ▁crisis ▁in ▁New ▁York ▁City ▁in ▁ 1 9 1 3 – 1 9 1 5 ▁concurrent ▁with ▁a ▁record ▁construction ▁bo om ▁in ▁Chicago . ▁Thor nt on ▁arg ues ▁that ▁completion ▁of ▁the ▁W ool worth ▁Building ▁was ▁followed ▁by ▁a ▁third - wor st - ever ▁quarter ly ▁decl ine ▁in ▁gross ▁domestic ▁product , ▁thus ▁it ▁should ▁not ▁be ▁considered ▁an ▁exception ▁from ▁the ▁rule ▁( as ▁Lawrence ▁himself ▁did ). ▁ ▁Cy clic al ▁patterns ▁in ▁real ▁estate ▁have ▁been ▁thoroughly ▁studied ▁before ▁Lawrence , ▁not ably ▁by ▁H omer ▁Ho yt ▁in ▁the ▁ 1 9 3 0 s . ▁A ▁ 1 9 9 5 ▁analysis ▁of ▁New ▁York ▁and ▁Chicago ' s ▁experience ▁by ▁Carol ▁Will is ▁estimated ▁that ▁histor ically , ▁two - third s ▁to ▁three - quarters ▁of ▁sk ys c rap ers ▁were ▁conce ived ▁for ▁rent ▁alone ; ▁corpor ate ▁" ed ific es " ▁impos ing ▁their ▁own ers ' ▁brand ▁name ▁( including ▁most ▁historical ▁record - hold ers ) ▁were ▁a ▁minor ity , ▁and ▁they ▁too ▁le ased ▁space ▁to ▁ten ants . ▁Spe cul ative ▁real ▁estate ▁mark ets ▁cycle ▁between ▁the ▁two ▁different ▁behavior ▁patterns . ▁ ▁In ▁normal ▁times ▁when ▁the ▁value ▁of ▁resources ▁is ▁predict able , ▁performance ▁of ▁a ▁building ▁project ▁can ▁be ▁estimated ▁reli ably ▁through ▁well - test ed ▁formula e .