es . ▁It ▁also ▁predicted ▁an ▁A CE ▁index ▁of ▁ 1 2 5 , ▁above ▁the ▁defined ▁average ▁A CE ▁index ▁at ▁ 1 0 3 . ▁ ▁On ▁May ▁ 2 7 , ▁NO AA ▁issued ▁its ▁first ▁out look ▁calling ▁for ▁a ▁near - normal ▁season ▁with ▁a ▁ 7 0 % ▁chance ▁that ▁ 1 0 – 1 6 ▁named ▁storm s ▁could ▁form , ▁including ▁ 4 – 8 ▁h urr ican es ▁of ▁which ▁ 1 – 4 ▁could ▁reach ▁major ▁h urr icane ▁status . ▁NO AA ▁also ▁stated ▁that ▁there ▁is ▁a ▁ 4 5 % ▁chance ▁of ▁a ▁near - normal ▁season , ▁ 3 0 % ▁chance ▁of ▁an ▁above - normal ▁season ▁and ▁ 2 5 % ▁chance ▁of ▁a ▁below - normal ▁season . ▁Also ▁on ▁May ▁ 2 7 , ▁T SR ▁substantial ly ▁increased ▁their ▁forec ast ▁numbers , ▁predict ing ▁activity ▁would ▁be ▁about ▁ 3 0 % ▁above ▁the ▁average ▁with ▁ 1 7 ▁named ▁storm s , ▁ 9 ▁h urr ican es , ▁ 4 ▁major ▁h urr ican es ▁and ▁an ▁A CE ▁near ▁ 1 3 0 . ▁The ▁reason ▁for ▁the ▁increased ▁activity ▁forec ast ▁was ▁the ▁increased ▁lik elihood ▁of ▁La ▁Ni ña ▁forming ▁during ▁the ▁season ▁in ▁addition ▁to ▁a ▁tr end ▁towards ▁a ▁negative ▁North ▁Atlantic ▁O sc ill ation , ▁which ▁generally ▁fav ors ▁a ▁war mer ▁tropical ▁Atlantic . ▁T SR ▁predicted ▁that ▁there ▁is ▁a ▁