▁presented ▁his ▁ideas ▁in ▁the ▁book , ▁Long ▁Cy cles ▁in ▁World ▁Polit ics ▁( 1 9 8 7 ), ▁is ▁the ▁chief ▁architect ▁of ▁long ▁cycle ▁theory . ▁ ▁In ▁a ▁nut shell , ▁long ▁cycle ▁theory ▁describes ▁the ▁connection ▁between ▁war ▁cycles , ▁economic ▁supre m acy , ▁and ▁the ▁political ▁aspects ▁of ▁world ▁leadership . ▁ ▁Long ▁cycles , ▁or ▁long ▁waves , ▁offer ▁interesting ▁pers pect ives ▁on ▁global ▁politics ▁by ▁perm itting ▁" the ▁careful ▁expl oration ▁of ▁the ▁ways ▁in ▁which ▁world ▁wars ▁have ▁rec ur red , ▁and ▁lead ▁states ▁such ▁as ▁Britain ▁and ▁the ▁United ▁States ▁have ▁succeeded ▁each ▁other ▁in ▁an ▁order ly ▁manner ." ▁ ▁Not ▁to ▁be ▁confused ▁with ▁Simon ▁K uz net s ' ▁idea ▁of ▁long - cy cles , ▁or ▁long - sw ings , ▁long ▁cycles ▁of ▁global ▁politics ▁are ▁patterns ▁of ▁past ▁world ▁politics . ▁ ▁The ▁long ▁cycle , ▁according ▁to ▁Dr . ▁Dan ▁C ox , ▁is ▁a ▁period ▁of ▁time ▁last ing ▁approximately ▁ 7 0 ▁to ▁ 1 0 0 ▁years . ▁ ▁At ▁the ▁end ▁of ▁that ▁period , ▁" the ▁title ▁of ▁most ▁powerful ▁nation ▁in ▁the ▁world ▁switch es ▁hands ." . ▁ ▁Model ski ▁div ides ▁the ▁long ▁cycle ▁into ▁four ▁phases . ▁ ▁When ▁periods ▁of ▁global ▁war , ▁which ▁could ▁last ▁as ▁much ▁as ▁one - four th ▁of ▁the ▁total ▁long ▁cycle , ▁are ▁fact ored ▁in , ▁the ▁cycle ▁can ▁last ▁from ▁ 8 7