▁percent ▁of ▁G DP ▁d eter ior ation ▁in ▁the ▁primary ▁balance , ▁resulting ▁in ▁higher ▁gross ▁finan cing ▁needs ▁of ▁ 1 - 2 ▁percentage ▁points ▁of ▁G DP ▁compared ▁to ▁the ▁bas eline . ▁ ▁G row th ▁shock . ▁A ▁one ▁standard ▁deviation ▁shock ▁to ▁growth ▁in ▁ 2 0 1 9 ▁and ▁ 2 0 2 0 ▁will ▁reduce ▁real ▁G DP ▁growth ▁rates ▁to ▁about ▁ 0 - 0 . 2 ▁percent . ▁This ▁would ▁lead ▁to ▁a ▁d eter ior ation ▁in ▁the ▁primary ▁balance , ▁with ▁the ▁def ic it ▁pe aking ▁at ▁ 2 . 3 ▁percent ▁in ▁ 2 0 2 0 . ▁The ▁gross ▁deb t - to - G DP ▁ratio ▁will ▁revert ▁to ▁nearly ▁ 9 0 ▁percent ▁of ▁G DP ▁in ▁ 2 0 1 9 , ▁but ▁would ▁return ▁to ▁a ▁down ward ▁path ▁over ▁the ▁projection ▁period , ▁as ▁G DP ▁growth ▁re co vers . ▁G ross ▁finan cing ▁needs ▁will ▁also ▁rise ▁faster ▁until ▁ 2 0 2 0 , ▁about ▁ 2 - 3 ▁percentage ▁points ▁higher ▁than ▁the ▁bas eline . ▁▁ ▁A ▁de valu ation ▁of ▁the ▁Canadian ▁dollars ▁can ▁lead ▁to ▁increasing ▁of ▁the ▁deb t . ▁However , ▁given ▁that ▁about ▁ 9 0 ▁percent ▁of ▁general ▁government ▁out standing ▁market able ▁deb t ▁instruments ▁are ▁in ▁Canadian ▁dollars , ▁the ▁fis cal ▁impact ▁of ▁an ▁exchange ▁rate ▁shock ▁is ▁minimal , ▁even ▁with ▁a ▁substantial ▁exchange ▁rate ▁dep reci ation