</s> ▁In ▁probability ▁theory ▁and ▁inter tem por al ▁port folio ▁choice , ▁the ▁Kelly ▁criter ion ▁( or ▁Kelly ▁strategy , ▁Kelly ▁bet , ▁... ), ▁also ▁known ▁as ▁the ▁scientific ▁g amb ling ▁method , ▁is ▁a ▁formula ▁for ▁bet ▁s izing ▁that ▁leads ▁almost ▁surely ▁to ▁higher ▁wealth ▁compared ▁to ▁any ▁other ▁strategy ▁in ▁the ▁long ▁run ▁( i . e . ▁approaching ▁the ▁limit ▁as ▁the ▁number ▁of ▁bet s ▁goes ▁to ▁infinity ). ▁The ▁Kelly ▁bet ▁size ▁is ▁found ▁by ▁maxim izing ▁the ▁expected ▁value ▁ ▁of ▁the ▁log arith m ▁of ▁wealth , ▁which ▁is ▁equivalent ▁to ▁maxim izing ▁the ▁expected ▁geometric ▁growth ▁rate . ▁The ▁Kelly ▁C riter ion ▁is ▁to ▁bet ▁a ▁pred et erm ined ▁fraction ▁of ▁assets , ▁and ▁it ▁can ▁seem ▁counter int uit ive . ▁ ▁It ▁was ▁described ▁by ▁J . ▁L . ▁Kelly , ▁Jr , ▁a ▁research er ▁at ▁Bell ▁L abs , ▁in ▁ 1 9 5 6 . ▁The ▁practical ▁use ▁of ▁the ▁formula ▁has ▁been ▁demonstrated . ▁ ▁For ▁an ▁even ▁money ▁bet , ▁the ▁Kelly ▁criter ion ▁comput es ▁the ▁w ager ▁size ▁percentage ▁by ▁multip lying ▁the ▁percent ▁chance ▁to ▁win ▁by ▁two , ▁then ▁subtract ing ▁one . ▁So , ▁for ▁a ▁bet ▁with ▁a ▁ 7 0 % ▁chance ▁to ▁win ▁( or ▁ 0 . 7 ▁probability ), ▁dou bling ▁ 0 . 7 ▁equ ates ▁ 1 . 4 , ▁from ▁which ▁you ▁subtract ▁ 1 , ▁leaving ▁