IV ▁cases ▁reported ▁since ▁ 1 9 8 6 . ▁The ▁UN ▁and ▁government ▁estimated ▁the ▁number ▁of ▁H IV / A ID S ▁cases ▁around ▁ 9 7 , 0 0 0 ▁r anging ▁from ▁a ▁lowest ▁estimate ▁of ▁ 4 6 , 0 0 0 ▁to ▁a ▁highest ▁estimate ▁of ▁ 2 1 0 , 0 0 0 . ▁ ▁More ▁real istic ▁estimates ▁that ▁are ▁based ▁on ▁actual ▁surve ill ance ▁figures , ▁however , ▁suggest ▁that ▁this ▁number ▁may ▁be ▁closer ▁to ▁ 4 0 , 0 0 0 – 4 5 , 0 0 0 . ▁The ▁overall ▁pre val ence ▁of ▁H IV ▁in fection ▁in ▁adult s ▁aged ▁ 1 5 ▁to ▁ 4 9 ▁is ▁ 0 . 1 %. ▁( 0 . 0 5 % ▁if ▁one ▁accepts ▁the ▁lower ▁estimates ). ▁Official s ▁say ▁that ▁the ▁majority ▁of ▁cases ▁go ▁un report ed ▁due ▁to ▁social ▁tab o os ▁about ▁sex ▁and ▁vict ims ’ ▁fear s ▁of ▁disc rim ination . ▁The ▁other ▁reason ▁for ▁all ▁the ▁cases ▁not ▁being ▁reported ▁is ▁that ▁H IV ▁is ▁a ▁disease ▁either ▁not ▁system atically ▁tested ▁for ▁or ▁reported ▁in ▁the ▁routine ▁surve ill ance ▁system . ▁ ▁E vol ving ▁phases ▁of ▁H IV ▁ep ide mic ▁H IV ▁ep ide mic ▁evol ves ▁in ▁three ▁phases . ▁First ▁phase ▁is ▁low ▁pre val ence , ▁when ▁pre val ence ▁of ▁the ▁disease ▁is ▁less ▁than ▁ 5 % ▁in ▁any ▁high - ris