▁to ▁ 1 2 2 ▁years . ▁ ▁Many ▁traditional ▁theories ▁of ▁international ▁relations , ▁including ▁the ▁other ▁approaches ▁to ▁h eg em ony , ▁believe ▁that ▁the ▁bas eline ▁nature ▁of ▁the ▁international ▁system ▁is ▁an archy . ▁ ▁Model ski ' s ▁long ▁cycle ▁theory , ▁however , ▁states ▁that ▁war ▁and ▁other ▁dest abil izing ▁events ▁are ▁a ▁natural ▁product ▁of ▁the ▁long ▁cycle ▁and ▁larger ▁global ▁system ▁cycle . ▁ ▁They ▁are ▁part ▁of ▁the ▁living ▁processes ▁of ▁the ▁global ▁polity ▁and ▁social ▁order . ▁ ▁Wars ▁are ▁" system ic ▁dec isions " ▁that ▁" p unct uate ▁the ▁movement ▁of ▁the ▁system ▁at ▁regular ▁intervals ." ▁ ▁Because ▁" world ▁politics ▁is ▁not ▁a ▁random ▁process ▁of ▁hit ▁or ▁miss , ▁win ▁or ▁lose , ▁depending ▁on ▁the ▁luck ▁of ▁the ▁draw ▁or ▁the ▁br ute ▁strength ▁of ▁the ▁contest ants ," ▁an archy ▁simply ▁doesn ' t ▁play ▁a ▁role . ▁ ▁After ▁all , ▁long ▁cycles ▁have ▁provided , ▁for ▁the ▁last ▁five ▁centuries , ▁a ▁means ▁for ▁the ▁success ive ▁selection ▁and ▁operation ▁of ▁numerous ▁world ▁leaders . ▁ ▁M odes l ki ▁used ▁to ▁believe ▁that ▁long ▁cycles ▁were ▁a ▁product ▁of ▁the ▁modern ▁period . ▁ ▁He ▁suggests ▁that ▁the ▁five ▁long ▁cycles , ▁which ▁have ▁taken ▁place ▁since ▁about ▁ 1 5 0 0 , ▁are ▁each ▁a ▁part ▁of ▁a ▁larger ▁global ▁system ▁cycle , ▁or ▁the ▁modern ▁world ▁system . ▁ ▁Under ▁the ▁terms ▁of ▁long ▁cycle ▁theory ,