Super Tuesday (Uwa kabiri Uhambaye) ni iki canke utunganywa gute?
Abatora hose muri Amerika baritabira mu matora ya mbere ahambaye abaye gushika ubu muri uno mwaka wa 2020.
Amahirwe ya Joe Biden yo kugenwa n'aba Domokarate asa n'ayiyongereye muri ino minsi Mu gihe haciye umwaka urenga abakandida ba mbere b'aba Demokarate bagiye mw'ihiganwa ryo kuraba uwuzohangana na Donald Trump, ubu dushitse kuri Super Tuesday (Uwa Kabiri Uhambaye). Amaleta cumi n'ane aratora umu Demokarate ashaka ko azohiganwa mu matora mu kwezi kwa cumi na rimwe. Bernie Sanders ni we ari imbere nyuma y'ugutora kwabanjirije. Gushika ku wa gatatu, turashobora kuba tubona neza uwuzogenda uwo ari we. Ni ibiki bimaze kuba gushika ubu? Abademokarate hose muri Amerika bamaze igihe mu bizwi nka caucuses (mu bisanzwe ni amanama, aho mu mpera haba gutora ku mugaragaro) canke primaries (itora ryo mw'ibanga) bagahitamwe umukandida bashimye. Abashigikiye Bernie Sanders barashobora kuba banezerewe gusumvya ngaha mu mpera za Super Tuesday Kuvyifatamwo neza kwa Bernie Sanders kwaje nk'igitangaza. Uyu mukenguzamateka w'i Vermont yatsinzwe na Hillary Clinton mu 2016, ariko si umu Demokarate wo kw'itsitso (mu bisanzwe mu nama nkenguzamateka afise intebe y'uwigenga). Ni umuntu ahaze cane kuri politike yo gusabikanya (left-wing), bikaba bishobora kumugora kwumvisha abo mu mugambwe bagira ku vyiyumviro bi hagati, atamutse agenywe. Kandi afise imyaka 78, akaba yarafashwe n'indwara y'umutima mu mpera z'umwaka uheze. Ariko yarigaragaje ko akundwa cane muri za "primaries" (amatora yo mw'ibanga) gushika ubu mu bantu b'inganwe zitandukanye kandi b'amoko yose, mbere amahirwe menshi akaba ari ku ruhande rwiwe. Abademokrate bake bariko barahiganwa bagira ku vyiyumviro biri hagati, baragabanganye amajwi, bikaba bigoye kugira umwe muri bo ashobora kwigaragaza (ibi bikaba vyaraguye neza Sanders mu gutera intambwe imbere). Umwe muri bo, ni uwahoze ari ucegera c'umukuru w'igihugu, yahabwa amahirwe menshi mu ntango, Joe Biden, bikaba vyarabanje kumugora imbere y'uko yivyukiranya i South Carolina kuwa gatandatu. Kandi ukwo kwivyukiranya kwarahahwe ingoga nyuma y'aho abandi bahiganwa nawe, Peter Buttigieg na Amy Klobuchar, baviriye mw'ihiganwa bagaca bamushigikira. Sanders ariko nawe ntiyiharije ikike y'abagira ku vyiyumviro vyo gusabikanya ubutunzi - Elizabeth Warren, umukenguzamateka w'i Massachusetts abirambiyemwo, afise imigambi myinshi isa na rwiwe ariko ntivyamugendeye nk'uko vyibazwa. None hari n'umwe muri aba bakandida yotsinda amatora mu kwezi kwa cumi na rimwe? Mu vy'ukuri, biragoye cane kumenya, kandi hari ibintu vyinshi cane bitazwi bishobora kubigiramwo uruhara. Kubera iki Super Tuesday ikomeye? Yerekeye cane cane intumwa. Tuvuye yuko nk'umukandida A ashigikiwe na benshi muri leta. Umukandida B akagerageza, ariko ntamushikire. Umukandida A aca rero ahabwa intumwa (delegates) nyinshi, nayo umukandida B agahabwa intumwa nkeyi. Igitigiri c'intumwa kiratandukanye muri buri leta. Ici nirishika, izo ntumwa zizotora umukandida azoserukira aba Demokarate. Ico buri mukandida agamije n'ugushikana igitigiri ntavogerwa c'intumwa 1.900. Aha rero niho Super Tuesday ica iba ngirakamaro. Gushika ubu, intumwa 155 nizo gusa zimaze gutangwa mu maleta ane. Kuri Super Tuesday, intumwa 1.357 nizo zihiganirwa, kandi amaleta 14 niyo atora. Ayaronderwa cane ari yo California na Texas, nayo aratora - iyo ya mbere ikaba itora ubwa mbere kuri iyi Super Tuesday. Ibi nivyo birwanirwa muri buri leta - kuva kuri ntiyo gushika ku yiruta zose - hakaba hari n'udundi turusho twifangamwo. Ninde aza kurusha abandi? Aha nta gukekeranya: Bernie Sanders. Kandatsinda ni umwe mu bakenguzamateka b'iyi leta. Ninde ashobora kuvyifatamwo neza? Tuvugishije ukuri? Birashoboka cane ko ata n'umwe kiretse Sanders aza kurenza amajwi 15% kugira aronke intumwa. Arakunzwe cane muri iyi leta yo muhira iwe kandi mu matora y'ibanga mu 2016 yaratsinze n'amajwi 86% (naho mu nyuma haje kugenwa Hillary Clinton). Turashobora kubona ivya mbere bivuye mu matora isaha 19:00 z'amasaha yaho (saa sita z'ijoro ku masaha mpuzamakungu GMT). Ikintu kmwe kijanye n'ibiMw'itororokanywa ry'ivyiyumviro ryakozwe na radiyo Vermont Public Radio mu kwezi kwa kabiri, hafi y'ica gatatu c'abantu bavuze ko ubutunzi, akazi hamwe n'igiciro c'ubuzima biri mu bintu bibaraje ishinga - naho Vermont iri mu bibanza birimwo ubushomeri buke mu gihugu, ku rugero rwa 2,3%. Inyoni iserukiye icivugo ca leta? Inyoni y'ubwoko Hermit thrush Ninde aza kurusha abandi? Turahakwa gusa n'abisubiramwo, ariko amajwi ngereranyo yerekana ko ari Bernie Sanders. Mu 2016, yatsindiye intumwa (delegates) zirenze inshuro zibiri izo Hillary Clinton yatsindiye. Ninde ashobora kuvyifatamwo neza?Hari abahiganwa benshi kurusha mu 2016, bigasigura ko Sanders ataza kubarusha amajwi menshi. Ariko umutunzi ruhebwa Michael Bloomberg na Joe Biden baza inyuma cane mu majwi ngereranyo. Ikintu kmwe kijanye n'ibiIki si co kintu co nyene kiri ku makarata y'itora kuri Super Tuesday i Maine. Hari kandi kamarampaka ku kwemeza canke guhakana itegeko ribuza ukwivanga kw'amadini hamwe n'ivyiyumviro bwite vy'abantu mu migambi yo gutanga inkingo. Igikoko giserukira icivugo ca leta?Ubwoko bw'impara bita Moose Ninde aza kurusha abandi? Ikimenyetso: Izina ryiwe ni icitiranwa ca Desire Banners. Sanders yatsinze ngaha mu 2016. Ninde ashobora kuvyifatamwo neza?Biragoye kwibaza ko hari uwuza kwegera Sanders. Amajwi ngereranyo aheruka yashize Bloomberg kure cane mu kibanza ca kabiri nayo uwahoze ari umukuru w'igisagara ca Indiana, Peter Buttigieg, aba uwa gatatu, imbere y'uko yikura mw'ihiganwa. None Bloomberg arashobora kuronka amajwi yari guhabwa Buttigieg, agaca yegera vya hafi Sanders? Ikintu kmwe kijanye n'ibiNta mukandida yigeze atsinda i Utah ngo ace agenwa guserukira aba Demokarate kuva ku gihe ca Lyndon B Johnson mu 1964, rero Sanders niyahatsinda akazohava agendwa, arashobora gufasha kwandika kahise. Ibiye ry'agaciro riserukiye iyi leta? Ibuye ry'agaciro ry'ubwoko Topaz Ninde aza kurusha abandi? Amajwi ngereranyo aheruka gutangwa n'ishure Hendrix College i Arkansas yerekana ko umugambi wa Bloomberg wo kwibanda gusa ku maleta atora kuri Super Tuesday ushobora kumuhira. Ninde ashobora kuvyifatamwo neza?Birashoboka ko baba Biden na Sanders, ariko baregeranye cane. Urubuga rugereranya uko ibintu biza kugenda, FiveThirtyEight, ruha Biden amahirwe menshi - ariko barashora kunganya hagati na hagati. Ikintu kmwe kijanye n'ibiUwo aba Demokarate bohitamwo kirashobora kuba atari co gihambaye: Arkansas imaze gutora umukandida w'umu Demokarate mu matora y'umukuru w'igihugu inshuro zibiri gusa mu myaka 40 (n'aho nyene, yari umugabo yahavukiye Bill Clinton, batoye inshuro zibiri). Igikoko dinosaur giserukira iyi leta? Igikoko arkansaurus fridayi Ninde aza kurusha abandi? Bitagoye kumenya. Nkumbure ni Biden. Ninde ashobora kuvyifatamwo neza?Bloomberg na Sanders, nk'uko vyatangajwe n'amajwi ngereranyi y'umugwi Sooner w'i Oklahoma mu ndwi iheze. Ikintu kmwe kijanye n'ibiF Kwimba gaze mu kuzimu bizwi nka fracking ni ikintu gihambaye cane ngaha, kandi Sanders na Warren (yavuye i Oklahoma City) bombi bashikirije imigambi yo kubirwanya. Kubika amazi y'umucafu ava mu kwimba gaze muri ubwo buryo vyatumye nyamugigimba ziyongera muri iki gice ca Amerika. Ikinyobwa giserukiye iyi leta? Amata Ninde aza kurusha abandi? Aha turi mu cibare ntakorwako ca Biden. Ashigikiwe n'aba Demokrate benshi bakomeye b'i Alabama, kandi arakunzwe cane mu banye Amerika birabura ngaha. Ninde ashobora kuvyifatamwo neza? Amajwi Biden arusha abandi mu ngereranyo ni menshi ngaha, ariko Bloomberg na Sanders basa n'abashobora kumugora. Ikintu kmwe kijanye n'ibi Aba Republikani nabo baratora uwuzobaserukira mu matora y'abakenguzamateka yo mu kwezi kwa cumi na rimwe, aho bizera gukura umu Demokarate Doug Jones (kandi bice bigorana ko aba Demokarate baharonka intebe y'umukenguzamateka uno mwaka). Uwuhabwa amahirwe kuri ubu ni Jeff Sessions, yahoze ari umushikiranganji w'ubutungane wa Donald Trump. Igikoko giserukiye iyi leta? Igikoko kiremye bwa muserebanyi kizwi nka Red Hills Salamander mu congereza Ninde aza kurusha abandi? Amahirwe asa n'ayangana. FiveThirtyEight kivuga ko amahirwe ya Biden ngaha yiyongereye cane mu minsi mikeyi iheze. Ninde ashobora kuvyifatamwo neza? Nta majwi ngereranyo yatororokanijwe cane ngaha, ariko arashobora kuba Sanders, yaje mu kibanza ca kabiri nyuma ya Hillary Clinton mu 2016. Ikintu kmwe kijanye n'ibi Muri Tennessee, uwutora ashobora kuba ari co we ahambaye kurusha uwutsinda - niho hantu hatora abantu bakeyi cane muri Amerika. Mu matora y'umukuru w'igihugu aheruka, abarenga gatoyi igice c'abiyandikishije nibo batoye, bija ku majwi 10 munsi y'urugero rw'igihugu. Igikoko c'ishamba giserukiye iyi leta? Igikoko gisa n'imbwebwe kizwi nka Raccoon mu congereza Ninde aza kurusha abandi? FiveThirtyEight ruha Sanders amahirwe indwi ku munani yo gutsinda ngaha. Urashobora kubona ko hari igitanguye kwigaragaza. Ninde ashobora kuvyifatamwo neza? Uru rubuga rushira Biden inyuma mu kibanza ca kabiri, Elizabeth Warren akaba amukurikira hafi. Ikintu kmwe kijanye n'ibi Aha hahoze higanje aba Republikani, ariko abimukira bavuye mu yandi maleta hamwe n'ukwiyongera kw'abanyagihugu vyahinduye Colorado iganzwa n'ibara ry'"ubururu" - ukwiganza kw'aba Demokarate kwigaragaza no mu matora. Mu ngereranyo giheruka gutanga, ikigo Sabato's Crystal Ball cahindiuye icivugo c'amatora citirirwa aba Demokarate. Igiterwa giserukiye iyi leta? Igiterwa gizwi nka Claret Cup Cactus mu congereza. Ninde aza kurusha abandi? Vyase n'ibizokworohera umukenguzamateka w'i Minnesota, Amy Klobuchar, gushika aho afatiye ingingo yo gukuramwo akarenge kuwa mbere. Ubu yashigikiye Biden, rero... nkumbure ni Biden? Ninde ashobora kuvyifatamwo neza? Sanders yamye aza inyuma ya Klobuchar mu kibanza ca kabiri, kandi arashobora kuronkera ngaha intumwa zitari nkeyi. Ikintu kmwe kijanye n'ibi Iki gice ca Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika carashegeshwe n'intambara y'ubutunzi ya Trump n'Ubushinwa - Ikigo gitanga ubuvugizi Tariffs Hurt The Heartland cavuze ko ubudandanji muri Minnesota bwabwirijwe kuriha amahera y'inyongera kw'ikori ashika ku muriyoni $797. Ibi none birashobora gutuma abantu baca bashigikira gusumvya aba Demokarate? Ikizinu giserukiye iyi leta? Ikizinu c'ubwoko Morel mu congereza. Ninde aza kurusha abandi? Sanders, nkumbure. Ariko baraza kugira amajwi yegeranye cane. Ninde ashobora kuvyifatamwo neza? Elizabeth Warren, ariko birashobora kuba akamaramaza natatsinda mu gihe ari we mukenguzamateka aserukiye abandi muri iyi leta. Kuva mw'ihiganwa kwa Buttigieg gushobora kumufasha. Ikintu kmwe kijanye n'ibi 40% vy'abakandida basigaye mw'ihiganwa (abantu babiri) baba Massachusetts - co kimwe na Warren, uwundi ni Michael Bloomberg, aba i Medford. Naho umukinyi w'amareresi Michael Douglas yamukoreye ukwiyamamaza ngaha, ntivyitezwe ko avyifatamwo neza. Ifi iserukira iyi leta? Ifi yo mu bwoko bwa cod mu congereza. Ninde aza kurusha abandi? Ngaha biraza kuba vyiza cane gukurikirana. Amajwi arashobora gusabikanywa hagati ya Sanders, Bloomberg na Biden. Ninde ashobora kuvyifatamwo neza? Raba hejuru. Ikintu kmwe kijanye n'ibi Urabe ibiza kuva mu matora mu mihana ikikuje Washington DC. Amajwi yo muri iyo mihana azoba ngirakamaro cane mu matora yo mu kwezi kwa cumi na rimwe (nk'uko vyagenze mu 2018 mu matora y'ikiringo co hagati). Uwukunzwe cane ku rwego rw'igihugu, Bernie Sanders, araza kuvyifatamwo gute? Imbwa iserukiye iyi leta? Imbwa y'ubwoko American foxhound Ninde aza kurusha abandi? Aha ibintu bisa nko muri leta vyegeranye na Virginia, kandi naho nyene biraza kuba vyiza gukurikirana - amajwi aregeranye hagati ya Sanders na Biden. Ninde ashobora kuvyifatamwo neza? Bloomberg yari ahagaze neza mu majwi ngereranyo ngaha, ariko kuri ubu asa n'uwuriko arasubira inyuma. Ikintu kmwe kijanye n'ibi Iyi leta nayo nyene izoberamwo uguhiganwa gukomeye mu kwezi kwa cumi na rimwe. Co kimwe na Virginia, amatora yo mu mihana iri mu micungararo y'imiji nka Charlotte na Raleigh araza kuba ahambaye. Ariko uze kuraba uwo batora, hamwe n'uko uwo muntu ari we azohava agenwa. Uko amatora azogenda ngaha mu kwezi kwa cumi na rimwe birashobora kuzokwerekana uwutsinda. Icamwe giserukiye iyi leta? Umusabibu w'ubwoko scuppernong mu congereza Ninde aza kurusha abandi? Aha rero tugeze mu ciciro c'ibihangange. Amajwi ngereranyo aregeranye cane hagati ya Sanders na Biden. Uko bigenda kwose, biragaragara ko Sanders aza kuronka igitigiri kinini c'intumwa kandi igihe ivyavuye mu matora i Texas biza kumenyekana, amajwi arusha abandi ashobora kuba ari menshi. Ninde ashobora kuvyifatamwo neza? Birashoboka ko Biden nawe avyitwaramwo neza. Elizabeth Warren ni uwa gatatu canke wa kane mu majwi ngereranyo. Ikintu kmwe kijanye n'ibi Hari impamvu yo kwibaza yuko igikunze kwitwa igisizimwe gisinziriye c'amajwi y'aba Hispaniya b'i Texas - ubu bashika hafi imiriyoni zibiri - gishobora kuba kigiye kuvyuka. Mu matora yo yagati y'ikiringo mu 2018, 46,9% vy'aba Hispaniya biyandikishije gutora baritavye amatora, kuba ukwiyongera kw'ibice 24,4% ku rugero rwo mu 2014. Igikoko co mu mazi giserukiye iyi leta? Igikoko kizwi nkaTexas Gulf Shrimp Ninde aza kurusha abandi? Nimba Sanders afise amahirwe ya munani kw'icenda yo kuronka amajwi menshi ngaha, nk'uko FiveThirtyEight kibitegekanya, urashobora kumwita uwuza kugenwa. Aha niho "amoko avanze y'abamushigikiye" aza gufasha Sanders - asa nk'uko ashobora gutorwa cane n'abirabura b'abanye Amerika, aba Latino hamwe n'abanye Amerika bamuka muri Aziya. Ninde ashobora kuvyifatamwo neza? Kuri ubu, Biden asa nk'uko ari inyuma cane mu kibanza ca kabiri. Ikintu kmwe kijanye n'ibi Aya araba ari yo matora ya mbere ya Super Tuesday abaye muri California. Abashingamateka bigije imbere amatora yo mw'ibanga y'iyi leta, bayakura mu kwezi yahora aberamwo kwa gatandatu mu kugerageza gutsimbataza akamaro ka California mu matora. Kwimura aya matora bishobora kugira akamaro: iyi leta ituwe cane kurusha izindi izotanga intumwa zingana na 30% vy'intumwa zose ziri muri Super Tuesday. Ijambo ngenerwako ry'iyi leta? Eureka! *American Samoa (intumwa zitandatu) na Democrats Abroad (13) nazo ziratora muri Super Tuesday