Icukumbura ryerekana ko imibare y’ubukene mu Rwanda yaba atari ukuri
U Rwanda rushimwa n'amahanga gutera intambwe mu bukungu, kurwanya ruswa no kuvana ibihumbi by'abantu mu bukene nk'uko imibare y'ubutegetsi n'ibigo mpuzamahanga ibyerekana. Ikinyamakuru Financial Times cyandika ku bukungu cyakoze icukumbura ryerekana ko iyi mibare yaba atari ukuri.
Isoko rya Kayumbu mu Rwanda Financial Times ivuga ko imibare yerekana izamuka ry'ibiciro ku masoko hagati ya 2010 na 2014 isobanura izamuka ry'ubukene Kuva mu 2000 Perezida Paul Kagame yajya ku butegetsi byagiye bitangazwa ko ubukungu buzamuka buri mwaka ku kigero niburacya 7%, ibi byatumye banki y'isi yiyemeza guha inkunga u Rwanda y'arenga miliyari enye(4) z'amadorari yo guteza imbere ubuzima, uburezi n'ubuhinzi. Mu myaka ibarirwa mu icumi ishize, abatavuga rumwe n'ubutegetsi bw'u Rwanda barimo n'abahoze mu butegtsi, bagiye bagaragaza ibyo banenga muri iri zamuka ry'ubukungu n'imibare y'ubukene, bamwe muri bo barishwe, abandi barafunzwe. Bwana Kagame yatorewe manda ya gatatu mu 2017 n'amajwi 99%. Mu 2018, inkunga ya Banki y'isi yikubye inshuro zirenze ebyiri igera ku kigero itigeze igeraho, miliyoni 545 z'amadorari y'Amerika. Gusa, isesengura ry'ikinyamakuru Financial Times (FT) ku ibarurishamibare ritangwa n'ubutegetsi bw'u Rwanda rivuga ko iyo mibare atari yo nibura inshuro imwe, bigatuma hakemangwa iby'iterambere ridasanzwe ry'ubukungu n'ubunyakuri mu mubano w'ubutegetsi bw'u Rwanda n'umuterankunga mukuru wabwo. Leta y'u Rwanda ivuga ko ubukene bwakomeje kugabanuka kuva mu 2001 muri iki gihugu gituwe n'abantu miliyoni 12. Ariko isesengura rya FT ku mibare y'ikigo cy'ibarurishamibare cy'u Rwanda rivuga ko ubukene bwiyongere mu gihe kitari gitoya. Abanyapolitiki batavuga rumwe n'ubutegetsi bw'u Rwanda bavuga ko, uko ubukene buhagaze mu gihugu biteye inkeke bitandukanye n'ibivugwa na Leta n'abaterankunga bayo. Financial Times isubiramo amagambo ya Diane Rwigara, umunyapolitiki utavuga rumwe n'ubutegetsi wafunzwe amezi 12 nyuma y'uko yashakaga kwiyamamaza kuyobora u Rwanda, aho agira ati: "[Leta] irashaka kwerekana ko turi gutera imbere bityo igahisha mu by'ukuri uko ibintu bimeze". "Iyo uje hano nk'umushyitsi, ibintu byose usanga biteguye ngo utangare, ariko ukuri k'ubuzima kurahishe. Bigusaba kububamo ngo ubyemere". FT ivuga ko mu 2015 hari umubare muto w'abahanga bakemanze imibare y'igabanuka ry'ubukene n'iterambere ry'ubukungu itangwa na leta y'u Rwanda, bituma mu 2016 u Rwanda rusubiramo isesengura ryarwo na Banki y'isi itangaza ibyarivuyemo umwaka ushize. Ibyo abo bahanga bari babonye, bimwe byatangajwe muri "Review of African Political Economy". Hari abemeje ko ibyo bakoze ari ubushakashatsi bwigenga, gusa byamaganywe na leta y'u Rwanda n'abo muri banki y'isi. Umushakashatsi avuga ko abahinzi mu Rwanda bategetswe guhinga igihingwa kimwe ahantu runaka bigatuma batakaza ijambo ku giciro cyacyo ku isoko FT yakoze isesengura ry'ibyatangajwe n'abo bahanga, ingingo zirenga 14,000 n'ibiganiro n'abo bahanga bo muri za kaminuza ibona ko izamuka ry'ibiciro mu Rwanda risobanuye ko ubukene bwiyongereye hagati ya 2010 na 2014. Leta y'u Rwanda na Banki y'isi bahakana ibyabonywe na Financial Times (FT), bashimangira ko imibare yabo ari yo y'ukuri. Yusuf Murangwa, umuyobozi w'ikigo cy'ibarurishamibare mu Rwanda ati: "Ibyo u Rwanda rwakoze mu kugabanya ubukene…nta gushidikanya ko ari byo. Byaragenzuwe". Bwana Murangwa avuga ko izamuka mu rwego rw'imari, kwiyongera kw'imisoro n'ibindi biranga ubukungu bitari gushoboka iyo ubukene buba nabwo bwariyongereye mu gihugu. David Himbara, wahoze ari umuyobozi w'ishami rishinzwe ingamba na politiki mu biro bya Perezida Kagame kugeza bagize ibyo bapfa mu 2010 agahunga, avuga ko ikigero cy'ubukene mu gihugu ari imwe mu mibare 'itunganywa' n'ubutegetsi. Ikinyamakuru FT gisubiramo amagambo ye agira ati: "Umubare wose kuri Kagame ufite icyo uvuze, yaba muri politiki cyangwa mu bukungu, ubwo nibwo buryo ahuzamo abaterankunga ntibite ku ihohotera akora ahubwo bagahanga amaso ku iterambere ry'bukungu. Agomba rero gukomeza kubereka ko imibare ari myiza". Ikigo cy'ibarurishamibare mu Rwanda, gisesengura ibipimo by'ubukene gishingiye ku bushakashatsi ku mibereho y'ingo. FT ivuga ko iki kigo kigereranya igiciro cy'ibitunga ingo (ziba zakoreweho ubushakashatsi) n'umurongo w'ubukene. Kuva mu 2001, ibyatangajwe mu bushakashatsi bw'imibereho y'ingo n'ubundi, bigaraza ko buri gihe habagaho igabanuka ry'ubukene, ubushakashatsi bwa kane bwo mu kwezi kwa munani 2015 buvuga ko imibare y'ababa mu bukene yavuye kuri 44,9% by'abaturage ikagera kuri 39,1% mu 2015. Iyi mibare yahise igibwaho impaka. Gupima ikigero cy'ubukene, kimwe nko kubara ibindi biranga ubukungu, ni umwitozo usaba inzira zinyuranye zirimo nk'isuzuma ku bintu bitandukanye kuva ku bitunga abaturage igiciro n'agaciro kabyo kugera ku buryo igiciro cyabyo cyagiye gihinduka mu gihe n'ahantu runaka. Kubera ibi, ibarurishamibare ry'u Rwanda ryiyemeje kuzamura urwego rw'ibyo rikoresha mu gupima umurongo w'ubukene kuva mu 2001. Iki kigo kivuga ko kuzamura uru rwego byari bikenewe kuko n'abantu uko baryaga n'uko babagaho byahindutse. Mu gihe ibihugu byinshi bihindura bikazamura urwego bikoresha mu gupima ubukene, ikigo cyo mu Rwanda ntabyo cyakoze mu bushakashatsi bwabanje nk'uko FT ibivuga, bigatera kwibaza niba ibishingirwaho ari ukuri mu igeraranya ry'ubukene mu 2011 no mu 2014. Mu gusubiza iki, ikigo cy'ibarurishamibare cy'u Rwanda cyasesenguye ibyavuye mu bushakashatsi bwacyo nanone mu 2016, gitangaza raporo nshya kivuga ko cyakoresheje igipimo cy'igiciro cyo kubaho mu kugaragaza neza iby'igereranya ry'ubushakashatsi bwa 2011 n'ubwa 2014 mu by'ibiciro. Ibyavuyemo, ntibitandukanye n'ibindi - ubukene bwaragabanutse - Bwana Murangwa avuga ko icyo babonye ari uko ubukene bwagabanutse ahubwo ku kigero cya 6,9% hagati ya 2011 na 2014. Isesengura rya FT kuri iyi mibare rinyuranya n'ibyabonetse, rikavuga ko ribonamo uburyo buhoraho bwo gushaka kuvuga imibare itari yo kuva mu 2015. Bandikiye uwahoze ari perezida wa Banki y'isi bamubwira 'itunganywa' ry'imibare y'ubukene mu Rwanda FT ivuga ko yabonye bishoboka gusa kuvuga ko ubukene bwagabanutse ku kigero cya 6,9% mu myaka itatu mu gihe igipimo cy'igiciro cyo kubaho gitangazwa n'ikigo cy'ibarurishamibare mu Rwanda cyari kuba ari 4,7%. Mu buryo bworoshye kumva, ubukene bwari kuba bwaragabanutse kuri icyo gipimo kinini gutya mu gihe igiciro cyo kubaho ku ngo 40% zikennye cyane cyari kuba cyarazamutse ku rwego rwa 4,7% hagati y'ukwezi kwa mbere 2011 n'ukwa mbere 2014. Ubukene bwaba ahubwo bwarazamutse kuri 6,6% Abahanga bo muri za kaminuza bane babajijwe na FT bavuga ko ibiciro mu bice by'icyaro mu Rwanda byazamutse ku kigero kirenze cyane 4,7% hagati y'iriya myaka ivugwa, kandi nacyo kikaba gifatwa nk'igipimo gitoya cyafashwe kugira ngo gitange imibare yifuzwa y'igabanuka ry'ubukene ritabayeho. Sam Desiere, umushakashatsi mukuru muri Kaminuza ya Leuven mu Bubiligi yize ku mibare y'ubukene mu Rwanda, avuga ko ikigereranyo cy'igiciro cyo kubaho cyazamutse nibura kuri 30% hagati ya 2011 na 2014 ashingiye ku isesengura yakoreye imibare iri mu bushakashatsi ku mibereho y'ingo. Ibyo avuga byatanga imibare ivuga ko ubukene mu Rwanda bwazamutse ku gipimo cya 6,6%. Bwana Desiere agira ati: "Uko ibiciro ku masoko bizamuka, niko ubukene bwiyongera". Bwana Murangwa ahakana ibyo gutanga imibare itari yo ku bipimo by'ubukene mu Rwanda, akavuga ko kuvuga ko ubukene mu Rwanda bwiyongereye hagati ya 2011 na 2014 ari ukwibeshya. Iki kigo cy'igihugu cy'ibarurishamibare kivuga ko bidakwiye gukoresha igipimo cy'igiciro cy'ubuzima gusa mu kwerekana ko imibare yacyo hagati ya buriya bushakashatsi bwombi atari yo. Abahawe akazi na letay'u Rwanda bavuga iki? Ukutabogama kw'inzira zikoreshwa n'abahanga mu bukungu mu kwerekana no kugereranya ibipimo by'ubukene bituma bikomera cyane kugera ku mwanzuro udashidikanywaho. Gusa n'abahawe akazi na Leta y'u Rwanda nk'abahanga (consultants) bashidikanya ingingo y'ababahaye akazi ku igabanuka ry'ubukene. Ubucuruzi bwambukiranya imipaka hagati y'u Rwanda na Congo: Abashakashatsi bavuga ko ibiciro ku masoko byazamutse ku kigero cya 30% hagati ya 2010 na 2014, bivuze ko ubukene bwazamutse, butamanutse Kompanyi yitwa Oxford Policy Management (OPM) yo mu Bwongereza yahawe akazi n'ikigo cy'u Rwanda cy'ibarurishamibare ngo igifashe kurangiza isesengura mu 2015 nk'uko yabikoze no ku bundi bushakashatsi ku mibereho y'ingo bwabanje. Ikipe ya OPM yasanze ubukene bwarazamutse ku gipimo nibura cya 6%, gusa ibi Leta y'u Rwanda yarabyanze nk'uko umwe mu bakozi b'iyi kompanyi utifuje gutangazwa na FT abivuga. Mu gihe icyo gihe mu kwezi kwa 12 amatora y'ivugurura ry'itegeko nshinga yari yegereje, abategetsi ngo bari ku gitutu cyo kugaragaza iterambere mu mibare, kuko imibare y'izamuka ry'ubukene itari kwihanganirwa nk'uko umukozi wa OPM abivuga. Nyuma y'ibyumweru mu biganiro ku buryo bushya Leta yifuzaga, OPM yahagaritse amasezerano kandi ntiyasinya kuri raporo ya nyuma nk'uko uyu mukozi abivuga. OPM yemereye Financial Times ko mu 2015 koko yari yahawe akazi ko gusesengura ibyavuye mu bushakashatsi ku mibereho y'ingo n'ikigo cy'ibarurishamibare cy'u Rwanda ariko banze kugira ibindi barenzaho bisunze ibanga bavuga ko bagirira abakiriya babo. Muri Banki hari ababiona ukundi Imbere muri Banki y'isi naho hari ibitekerezo binyuranye ku mibare y'ubukene mu Rwanda. Mu gihe ibiro by'iyi banki mu Rwanda bishyigikiye imibare ya Leta, abakozi batanu b'iyi banki banditse ibaruwa isa n'iburira ubuyobozi bw'iyi banki. Bimwe mu biyirimo ni ubwa mbere bitangajwe. Mu ibaruwa yo ku itariki 01/12/2015 bandikiye Jim Yong Kim wayoboraga Banki y'isi, umuyobozi wungirije ushinzwe Afurika n'abayishinzwe muri Kenya, Eritrea n'u Rwanda, bagira bati: "Ibikorwa bimwe biheruka biraganisha ku byago byo gutakaza ikizere kw'iyi banki niba ibikorwa byayo mu Rwanda bigumye mu murongo birimo". Aba bakozi mu ibaruwa yabo biyise "Professionals for Truth in Aid" bavuga ko "hari ukubeshya mu mibare itangwa n'ubutegetsi no kunanirwa gutanga imibare nyayo bweruye". Iri tsinda ntabwo ryigeze risubizwa, naryo ryarekeye aho. Umwe mu banditsi iyi baruwa yabwiye FT ati: " Twayohereje tutavuze imyirondoro yacu kuko twatinyaga kwihorera kuri twe [kwa leta y'u Rwanda]". Banki y'isi ivuga ko itakwemeza ubuziranenge bw'iriya baruwa ndetse niba yarakiriwe n'abo yandikiwe kuko yoherejwe inyujijwe mu buryo bwashyizweho na banki bwo gutanga amakuru mu ibanga. Imibare y'abategetsi ivuga ko ku butegetsi bwa Perezida Paul Kagame ubukungu buzamuka ku kigero cya 7% buri mwaka, abandi bavuga ko ubutegetsi bwebuhisha imibare y'ukuri Ibajijjwe ku mpungenge za OPM ku kuri kw'imibare y'ubukene mu Rwanda, Banki y'isi ivuga ko "yari izi ibyo biganiro [hagati ya OPM n'ikigo cy'ibarurishamibare cy'u Rwanda] ariko itazi ibyumvikanyweho na leta n'uwo yahaye akazi". Banki y'isi ishyigikira uruhande rwa leta y'u Rwanda mu mibare ivuga ku bukene, mu kwezi kwa cyenda 2018 no mu kwezi kwa kane uyu mwaka iyi banki yashyigikiye raporo ya Leta ku isesengura ry'ubukene yitwa Revisiting the Poverty Trend in Rwanda, ishimangira igabanuka ryabwo. Mu nyandiko iyi banki yanditse ko "nta bimenyetso yabonye by'amakosa cyangwa kubeshya". Leta y'u Rwanda yishimira ko urwego rw'ubuhinzi n'ubworozi bwongereye umusaruro kuva mu 2008 bigatuma imibereho y'imiryango yo mu cyaro itera imbere. Gusa, Madamu An Ansoms, porofeseri mu masomo y'iterambere muri kaminuza ya Louvain mu Bubiligi avuga ko muri gahunda yo guteza imbere ubuhinzi n'ubworozi iterwa inkunga na banki y'isi abahinzi bategetswe guhinga ibihingwa bimwe ahantu runaka. Ibi ngo byongereye umusaruro ariko "binahungabanya ibiciro ku masoko" ku bihingwa abahinzi batahinze. Prof Ansoms avuga ko izamuka ry'ibiciro by'ibintu binyuranye byakenesheje abahinzi batoya mu bice byinshi by'icyaro aho yakoreye ubushakashatsi hagati ya 2010 na 2014. Ikinyamakuru Financial Times gisubiramo amagambo ye agira ati: "Nubwo abahinzi bagurirwaga ibigori byabo ku giciro cyiza, ijambo ryabo ryari rito ku giciro ugeranyije n'ibyo bahingaga mbere".