Scottish independence: Rivals both say Scots 'better off with us'
Competing claims about the costs and benefits of Scottish independence have been set out to voters.
The Scottish government said everyone in Scotland would be £1,000 better off a year, in the event of a "Yes" vote in September's independence referendum. But UK ministers said in their analysis people would benefit from staying in the UK by £1,400 per person, per year. Each side of the debate also sought to discredit the figures put forward by their opponents. Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond said the Treasury's calculations had been "blown to smithereens", while Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander accused SNP ministers of offering voters a "bogus bonus". Independence: Treasury view Each person in Scotland £1,400 a year better off in UK 13% more tax needed to maintain independent Scotland public services, or... 11% cut in public services needed to keep current tax levels £1.5bn-£2.7bn estimated cost of restructuring Scotland's institutions A new Scottish government paper said an independent Scotland would begin life with its public finances in a "strong" position, and could see its economy £5bn per year better off by 2029-30. Mr Salmond said Scotland was one of the world's wealthiest countries, but needed the powers of independence to realise its full potential. He told the BBC: "We put forward the benefit over a period of 15 years. We calculate that as each individual in Scotland being £1,000 better off - that's a £5bn bonus, or a family £2,000 better off a year." The Scottish government paper said: Independence: Scottish government view Each person in Scotland £1,000 a year better off out of UK Onshore tax receipts will be up £5bn by 2030 14% increase in oil and gas production between 2013-18 Tax receipts currently 14% higher in Scotland than UK The first minister said his government's calculations were "based on reason and logic", as he hit out at UK government claims it could cost up to £2.7bn for an independent Scotland to set up the public bodies it needed, which made use of London School of Economics research. LSE academic Patrick Dunleavy later posted on his Twitter account: "UK Treasury press release on Scotland costs of government badly misrepresents LSE research." Mr Salmond added: "Danny Alexander's calculations have been blown to smithereens, because the Treasury relied on the work of the LSE professor, Professor Dunleavy, who this morning has accused them of grossly misrepresenting his work." But Mr Alexander branded the Scottish government's £5bn figure a "bogus bonus", adding: "They're desperately trying to distract attention from that fundamental question, that there simply wouldn't be the same level of resources available for public services if Scotland were independent." The Treasury published its own paper outlining what the UK government sees as challenges to an independent Scotland, including an ageing population, declining oil revenues and the potential for higher interest rates. Scotland in numbers Mr Alexander said: "Today we have shown that, by staying together, Scotland's future will be safer, with stronger finances and a more progressive society. "Because as a United Kingdom we can pool resources and share risks. It means a UK dividend of £1,400 a year for every man, woman and child in Scotland. "That dividend is our share of a more prosperous future. It is the money that will pay for better public services and a fairer society." The Treasury analysis said: ANALYSIS - BBC Scotland political editor Brian Taylor What is the £1,400 Union dividend? Well, the UK Treasury says it's per person and would come into play at the onset of independence. It takes into account higher public spending borne by Scotland alone; lower oil revenues than Scottish government forecasts; a disproportionately ageing population; set-up costs of independence and the net effect of policies in the White Paper, such as a reduction in corporation tax. To counter that, Scotland would benefit from having a geographical share of North Sea oil, rather than having it shared across the UK as a whole. So, what is the breakdown per head? The first six figures show costs to be added to Scotland's account (hence the plus). The seventh, about oil share, is a cost to be removed from Scotland's account (hence the negative). Total added costs: £1,789 Total gain: £389 Net downside: £1,400 And that, according to the UK Treasury, is how you get to the Union Dividend - worse off by £1,400 under independence, or taken the other way, £1,400 better off sticking with the Union. Read more analysis from Brian Taylor on the two competing economic visions