Kamakura Reports an Improvement in
Corporate Credit Quality in July
Kamakura Troubled Company Index Decreases 0.49% to 7.81%
NEW YORK, August 2, 2017: Kamakura Corporation reported Wednesday that the Kamakura troubled company index ended July at 7.81%, a decrease of 0.49% from the prior month. The index reflects the percentage of the Kamakura 39,000 public firm universe that has a default probability over 1.00%. An increase in the index reflects declining credit quality while a decrease reflects improving credit quality.
As of the end of July, the percentage of the global corporate universe with default probabilities between 1% and 5% was 6.48% a decrease of 0.28% from the prior month; the percentage of the universe with default probabilities between 5% and 10% was 0.93%, a decrease of 0.15% from the prior month; the percentage between 10% and 20% was 0.32%, down 0.05%; while the percentage of companies with default probabilities over 20% was 0.08%, down 0.01% from the previous month. The index ranged from 7.81% on July 31 to 8.56% on July 6. Volatility was slightly less than the previous month.
At 7.81%, the troubled company index improved to the 84th percentile of historical credit quality (with 100 being best all time) over the period from January 1990 to the present. Among the ten riskiest rated firms in July seven were from the United States, two from Great Britain and one from Singapore. During the month, there were 9 defaults in the coverage universe. Ascena Retail Group, Inc. (NASDAQ: ASNA) continues to be the riskiest rated firm with a one-year KDP of 26.21%, up 25.04% in the past year. Noble Group LTD (SGP) became the second riskiest firm with a one-year KDP of 21.12%
Martin Zorn, President and Chief Operating Officer for Kamakura Corporation, said Wednesday, "Our recent credit narrative remains intact with benign short-term risk interrupted by significantly elevated term risk. According to a 2016 article in Carnegie Science, a Carnegie volcanologist working with a team of scientists showed that periods of seismic quiet occur immediately before eruptions occur. The article goes on to state that 'duration of silence can indicate the level of energy that will be released when an eruption occurs'. Now I am not suggesting that volcanology is applicable to finance however it does seem interesting that while short term default probabilities have been low and defaults manageable our expected cumulative default rates continue to expand. This is especially troubling as fund manages seek yield in the markets. At a recent fund forum conference, several fund managers inquired about our quantitative default probabilities for Noble Group, which has moved to the second riskiest firm globally. With significant interest in the name we have included the current KDP risk profile below."
The Kamakura troubled company index measures the percentage of 39,000 public firms in 68 countries that have annualized 1 month default risk over one percent. The average index value since January, 1990 is 14.65%. Beginning in November 2015, the Kamakura index has used the annualized one month default probability produced by the KRIS version 6.0 Jarrow-Chava reduced form default probability model,a formula that bases default predictions on a sophisticated combination of financial ratios, stock price history, and macro-economic factors. The KRIS version 6.0 models were developed using a data base of more than 2.2 million observations and more than 2,600 corporate failures. A complete technical guide is provided to subscribers which includes full model test results and parameters. The KRIS service also includes a wide array of other default probability models that can be seamlessly loaded into Kamakura's state of the art enterprise risk management software engine Kamakura Risk Manager. Models available include the non-public firm default model, the commercial real estate model, the U.S. bank model, and the sovereign model. Related data includes credit default swap trading volume by reference name, market implied credit spreads, and prices on all traded corporate bonds traded in the United States market. Macro factor parameter subscriptions include Heath, Jarrow and Morton term structure models for government securities in the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, Canada, Spain, Sweden, Australia, Japan, Thailand and Singapore. All parameters are derived in a no arbitrage manner consistent with the seminal papers by Heath, Jarrow and Morton and Amin and Jarrow. A KRIS Macro Factor Scenario Service subscription includes both risk neutral and "real world" empirical scenarios for interest rates and macro factors.
Founded in 1990, Honolulu-based Kamakura Corporation is a leading provider of risk management information, processing and software. Kamakura was named to the World Finance 100 by the Editor and readers of World Finance magazine in 2016 and 2012. In 2010, Kamakura was the only vendor to win 2 Credit Magazine innovation awards. Kamakura Risk Manager, first sold commercially in 1993 and now in version 8.1, is the first enterprise risk management system with users focused on credit risk, asset and liability management, market risk, stress testing, liquidity risk, counterparty credit risk, and capital allocation from a single software solution. The KRIS public firm default service was launched in 2002. The KRIS sovereign default service, the world's first, was launched in 2008, and the KRIS non-public firm default service was offered beginning in 2011. Kamakura added its U.S. Bank default probability service in 2014. Kamakura has served more than 330 clients ranging in size from $1.5 billion to $1.6 trillion in assets. Kamakura's risk management products are currently used in 47 countries, including the United States, Canada, Germany, the Netherlands, France, Austria, Spain, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Russia, the Ukraine, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Africa, South America, Australia, Japan, China, Korea, India and many other countries in Asia.
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