As we've supposed, hydro carbonic confrontation of the founders of the Union State continued through November. Judging by the lack of positive information, the meeting of the "national leaders" in Moscow did not draw a line under it as well. Paraphrasing the motto of Cuban revolutionaries (Patria o muerte), we would formulate the basic condition of the survival of Belarusian model as follows: "Cheap oil and gas or death". That is why there is nothing surprising about the intention of Belarus to raise the tariffs for Russian oil transit by 20.5% since January 1, 2017. Even if the sides find the compromise, it will only be temporary. As you know, a drowning man catches at a straw, and for Lukashenko this straw is the payments for the transportation of Russian oil.
In full accordance with our forecast, the main newsmaker of the October Economic Forum was Kiryl Rudy again. The transfer to China and the addition of "ex-" to his title of the President's Aide didn't cool down his passion for reforms. However, despite expectations, top officials did not support their colleague. Alexander Lukashenko did not react to the discussion as well. During many-hours-long communication with the regional Russian mass media he didn't give a single reason to believe in his readiness to change something in the Belarusian model.
The "matrix of tasks for the vertical of power" was defined in 2016 as a substitute to reforms. How long will it justify the hopes of the head of state is an open question, but there are no reasons to count on reform taboo removal in the next half a year.
Despite all expectations, Donald Trump won the presidential election in the US. According to our forecast this outcome of the vote should have led to a weakening of the US dollar, and, automatically, a strengthening of most currencies, including the Belarusian ruble. Trump has won. Dollar has quivered and… started to strengthen. As a result, Belarusian ruble dropped 3.5% over November (from 1.9054 down to 1.9719 rubles per dollar).