Politics: Forecast
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Concerns raised over possible electoral fraud
Although national elections in Ecuador since the 1940s have generally been considered free and fair, concerns linger around the potential for fraud on February 17th.
A number of recent events have fuelled these concerns. Contrary to recent elections, Ecuador has declined to invite EU observers, citing sovereignty concerns. This has led opposition organisations, particularly the Unidad Plurinacional (a leftist coalition headed by Alberto Acosta) and the populist Partido Sociedad Patriótica to warn of likely fraud attempts. In place of the EU the president, Rafael Correa, has met with electoral observers from the Arab League, India and other Asian countries, and from Central America.
Before Mr Correa took office in 2007, the Consejo Nacional Electoral (CNE, the national electoral commission), was comprised of representatives of several major parties, bolstering confidence in its independence. Now, it is staffed predominantly by officials close to the Correa administration, and suffered a major blow to its credibility by failing to detect tens of thousands of fraudulent signatures that had been used to register political movements and parties for the election. Questions have also been raised about the CNE's recent decision not to publish the 11.7m-person electoral roll, as there are concerns that it has not been revised to account for deceased voters, and other irregularities.
Voting is compulsory for the majority of adults in Ecuador and absentees are fined. However, polling stations will be provided with blank ballots for members of the police and armed forces, who are permitted to vote voluntarily. A total of 640,000 of these blank ballots have been provided, while the number of active members of the police and armed forces is just 90,000, increasing the risk of fraud by inflating the vote. In response to criticism of the CNE, Mr Correa claimed that it was an attempt by the press to "de-legitimise" the results.
Impact on the forecast
Although the potential for accusations of fraud following the elections exists, we do not expect this to affect political stability. Recent opinion polls have consistently given Mr Correa a considerable lead and this will bolster the legitimacy of the result should he win (our baseline scenario).
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