evidence: The war in Ukraine is sapping the strength and resilience of Vladimir Putin’s regime. Russia’s continued military failures there, combined with high casualties and worsening economic deprivation, could put his regime at risk. [...] First, the war has prompted greater repression. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin has significantly increased its repression and effectively closed down independent political forums. Dissidents have been jailed, with many facing years-long imprisonment. Journalists, academics, and policy analysts have fled Russia to avoid arrest. Anti-war protesters have been given long jail sentences. Thus, there is almost no political space to mobilize against the regime, which makes fomenting popular unrest exceptionally difficult. [...] There is good reason to doubt the potential for a liberal democratic Russia that is not hostile to the West. Putin is in many ways a reflection of the Russian public. He is popular in no small measure because hardline nationalism is popular within Russia, while democracy remains badly stained by the political chaos and economic collapse of the 1990s, which led to the development of crony capitalism instead of a strong and vibrant market economy. Much of the Russian public has also been fed anti-Western propaganda for most of the past century. Thus, any new leader or regime might revert to a hardline nationalist posture in order to maintain public support.