evidence: Nagorno-Karabakh is a disputed, Armenian-controlled breakaway region inside internationally recognised Azerbaijan. The two former Soviet states have been locked in conflict over the territory for the last four decades. A bloody war in the early 1990s saw an estimated 20,000 people killed, and a million displaced. It was ended by an uneasy ceasefire in 1994, which was never followed by a truce. [...] Armenia-Azerbaijan: A local conflict with a frightening global reach [...] There are several possible outcomes, but none includes an immediate ceasefire or peace agreement. It is hard to see how either side would renounce their claims to territory in Nagorno-Karabakh. Both Armenia and Azerbaijan see the region as theirs – a source of historical identity and security – and the memories of war atrocities run deep. Yet there is no obvious prospect of military victory for either side. The richer Azerbaijan has a better-equipped army, supplemented with new drone hardware from Israel and Turkey. Armenian forces are considered to be better organised, however, with the advantage of defensive positions. A good prognosis would see battles focused on small pockets of land and ended within a week; a bad prognosis would suggest a return to protracted, all-out war.