evidence: The above calculations show that the approximately linear global warming trend of ~0.2 °C/decade results in a nonlinear increase in the number of the highest threshold-exceeding extreme events. For example, after a 1-sigma shift of a Gaussian distribution function, what used to be a 2-sigma extreme becomes 4.5 times more likely, while what used to be a 5-sigma extreme becomes 90 times more likely. (see15,16). Meanwhile, the increase of record-breaking extremes over those expected in a stationary climate scales approximately linearly with the trend14. Figure 1b plots the global-land mean evolution of the ratio of observed local monthly temperature records compared to those expected in a stationary climate. The latter scales with 1/n, with n the year of the observation. In relatively good agreement with our projections in 2012, the number of observed record-breaking monthly temperatures has now risen to 8 times those expected in a climate without long-term warming (Fig. 1b). Note that this is much less than the 1000-fold increase in 4-sigma events because the bar for each new record is raised by the previous record.