evidence: In the case of a resumption of hostilities, Azerbaijan’s main objective would be to use Nakhichevan as a platform to hit strategic targets in Armenia proper. One of these targets is Armenia’s S300PS systems, a sophisticated air defence system that protects the skies of Nagorno-Karabakh and also deters Nakhichevan’s air force from their operations. A number main roads are also within range, including one that links Karabagh with Armenia. These roads lie within direct range of Azerbaijan’s Nakhichevan-based artillery. Another major concern for Armenia is that its capital—Yerevan—is well within firing range of Azerbaijan’s MLRS and, while it is risky for Azerbaijan to strike a major city, this scenario still needs to be taken into account by Armenian military decision-makers. [...] On the other side of the picture is the geographical isolation of Nakhichevan, which carries its own risks for Azerbaijan in any resumption of hostilities. While the militarization of the exclave allows for a potential strike against strategic targets in Armenia, this would come at the cost of a massive retaliation from the Armenian side. It would therefore be unwise for Azerbaijan to sacrifice the whole region in the hope of getting Turkey involved or in the hope of diverting Armenian troops away from Nagorno-Karabakh. Nakhichevan’s geographical isolation would provide Armenia with an easy opportunity to fire into Nakhichevan from vantage points held by its military. It would also allow Armenian troops to easily seize mountain-top posts of the exclave as a buffer, as was seen in 2014 when Armenian troops established control over previously unmanned heights inside Syunik in the Nakhichevan direction during a well-planned surprise night raid.