evidence: Regional sea-level rise and contributions from natural variability Regional sea level exhibits considerably more natural variability than the GMSL (Fig. 3)19, implying the need to consider longer analysis periods. We focus on evaluating the projections of coastal sea level as recorded by tide gauges and used in coastal management (rather than offshore observations from satellites), after minimising the natural variability by using the MVLR analysis (Methods Eqs. 3, 4). We also applied the MVLR analysis to the regional ocean-reanalysis data (Ocean ReAnalysis System 5, ORAS5) over the same period as tide-gauge observations (1970–2018) to provide large-scale regional patterns. The MVLR analysis was not applied to regional satellite altimeter observations because the 26-year study period is still quite short to reasonably separate the regional sea-level trends and accelerations from low-frequency decadal variability (Methods; Supplementary Fig. 3).