evidence: UK trade in goods with EU and non-EU countries [...] Taking into account the differences in methodologies, the available empirical evidence suggests that Brexit has reduced UK-EU trade in both directions. Table 1 provides an overview of recent results obtained using various approaches. Estimates of the decline in UK trade with the EU range from around 10% to 25%.[8] As the updates by Springford and Du et al. show, the results also depend on the time horizon being considered. As both UK and EU firms are still adjusting to the new environment, the gap between estimates may narrow again over time. Apart from providing estimates of Brexit effects since 2021, the available studies generally find no evidence of anticipation effects, i.e. a decline in UK-EU trade as a proportion of total UK trade prior to the provisional implementation of the TCA at the start of 2021. Across EU Member States, Brexit has led to a significant decline in trade with the United Kingdom in almost all cases, although at varying magnitudes.