evidence: The challenge of explaining the 2024 election is to derive an overarching claim when the results show extraordinary regional variation. The truth is that the BJP lost a significant number of seats in a small number of important states due to myriad reasons. A close look at the numbers can help us understand how it fell below the majority mark for the first time in 10 years. [...] The second major site of erosion was the states where the BJP had expanded its footprint in 2019: West Bengal and Karnataka. It had won 43 seats in these two states then, but this time, the number dropped to 26 — although it is worth noting that the BJP gave up three seats in Karnataka for its alliance partner, the Janata Dal (Secular), or JD(S). Here, support eroded because of formidable political competition at the state level. Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) first showed the limits of the BJP’s expansion plans in the 2021 West Bengal election, with the TMC romping to a score of 213 out of 294 seats. The TMC has consistently outworked the BJP in the state with a superior party cadre. In Karnataka, the Congress amassed significant goodwill in the run-up to the elections from chief minister Siddaramaiah’s welfare schemes. A major scandal over the JD(S)’s candidate Prajwal Revanna, against whom there are multiple allegations of sexual abuse and rape, added to the Congress’s momentum in the second phase of the polls in the state.