evidence: For more than a decade, Wisconsin has been at the white-hot center of American politics. After a long stretch of Republican dominance there — capped off by a shock Trump win in 2016 — Democrats have mounted a considerable comeback in recent years. They ousted Scott Walker in 2018, tilted the state to Joe Biden — barely — in 2020, and gained a majority on the state supreme court, breaking Republicans’ suffocating statewide gerrymander. Polls show Kamala Harris with a small but persistent edge over Donald Trump, but for two straight presidential cycles, polls have dramatically overestimated Democratic strength in Wisconsin.