evidence: On 3 February 2022, the DUP’s Paul Givan resigned his position as First Minister in protest over the implementation of the Protocol on Ireland / Northern Ireland. With the DUP not nominating a replacement, the Sinn Féin deputy First Minister, Michelle O’Neill, was also forced to resign, in accordance with the rules. [...] First, there may have been no progress toward resolving issues around the Northern Ireland protocol that triggered Givan’s resignation. [...] Taken together, the recent DUP protest resignation over the Protocol and the possibility of a nationalist First Minister make it unlikely that an Executive will be formed in the immediate aftermath of the election.