evidence: This comprehensive assessment concludes that the global average temperature about 6,500 years ago was likely warmer and was followed by a multi-millennial cooling trend that ended in the 1800s. But, they cautioned, uncertainty still exists despite recent studies that claimed to have resolved the conundrum. [...] The challenge up to now has been that our two significant lines of evidence point in opposite directions. Paleo-environmental "proxy" data, which includes evidence from oceans, lakes, and other natural archives, point to a peak global average temperature about 6,500 years ago and then a global cooling trend until humans started burning fossil fuels. Climate models generally show global average temperatures increasing in the last 6,500 years. [...] We also know that, whether the numbers trend up or down, the change in global average temperature in the past 6,500 years has been gradual—probably less than 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit). This is less than the warming already measured in the last 100 years, most of which humans have caused. However, because global temperature change of any magnitude is significant, especially in response to changing greenhouse gases, knowing whether temperatures were higher or lower 6,500 years ago is important to our knowledge of the climate system and improving forecasts of future climate.