evidence: Since a pro-Trump mob stormed the U.S. Capitol on January 6, 2021, the prospect of further political violence has loomed over America. Before the 2022 election, government agencies like the Department of Homeland Security and the National Counterterrorism Center warned of the risk of election-related violence. Polls found that one in 10 Americans believed violence was justified right now, and that figure rose to one in five of Republican-voting men. Threats against members of Congress skyrocketed, and even local school board races became far more threatening. The brutal attack on Paul Pelosi, husband of Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, at his San Francisco home seemed to confirm many people’s fears. [...] Election violence, of course, could return in 2024. Part of this depends on whether Trump is on the ballot and how much support he has from others within the conservative political and media ecosystem to again whip up violence. The former president has shown he will push conspiracy theories and encourage violence should he lose, and there is no reason to expect that to change. For now Trump’s star appears to be falling, but he has proven resilient, and he has many die-hard supporters. In addition, new Twitter owner Elon Musk has welcomed the former president back to Twitter, and in general social media remains awash in dangerous conspiracies.