evidence: But while tensions in the region are not new, the scale of military force over the last two years marks a significant and worrying escalation in violence. The first large-scale escalation of the conflict took place on April 28, 2021, when the two parties clashed over Tajikistan’s decision to install video surveillance near the Ak-Suu/Isfara River. The exchange grew into an unprecedented military action, killing 36, wounding hundreds, and displacing 58,000 people on the Kyrgyz side. The Tajik government claimed 19 dead among civilians and servicemen and 87 wounded. This was a dramatic escalation in the nature of tensions between the two countries. [...] Yet, as any contemporary society, Tajiks are relatively fragmented, too. Does the creation of an external enemy, such as Kyrgyzstan, facilitate for Rahmon the transition of power and the successful continuation of family rule? Or does the Tajik regime seek to force the border resolution in its favor by military means? Is this about a land grab to allow the creation of a corridor between Isfara and the Vorukh exclave, while the international community is busy with Ukraine? Other suggestions point to the complex political economy of border zones, which include lucrative smuggling of goods, fuel, and drugs. Many questions remain open.