evidence: His team put together a simple table that looks at various scenarios using case fatality ratios ranging from .1, similar to seasonal flu, to .5, a moderately severe pandemic, and 1.0, a severe one. The infection rate ranged from 0.1 percent of the population to 50 percent. That put the range of deaths at 327 (best case) to 1,635,000 (worst case). The deaths would not necessarily happen over a month or a year, but could occur over two or three years, he said. [...] In his Capitol Hill testimony, Fauci said that a plausible covid-19 fatality rate could be 1 percent. That, he said, is 10 times as lethal as seasonal influenza. He was clear: This is more dangerous than the flu. [...] Forecasts have been wrong in the past. Early estimates of the fatality rate for H1N1 in 2009 were much higher than the roughly 0.01 to 0.03 percent it turned out to be. With covid-19, the fatality rate is likely to be in the 0.5 to 1.5 percent range outside Wuhan, according to a report this week from Imperial College London.