evidence: The JD(S) won more than 60 per cent of its seats in the Old Mysuru region. The BJP got maximum number of seats from Bombay Karnataka and Bengaluru, while Congress from Old Mysuru and Bombay Karnataka. BJP is expected to do well in North Karnataka this time where KJP (Yeddyurappa’s party) damaged its prospects in 29 seats in 2013. [...] BJP has lost vote share in most state elections held after Lok Sabha elections except for those in Maharashtra and Kerala. The extent of the loss of vote share compared to central elections where the BJP recorded 43 per cent vote share in Karnataka will determine how BJP performs in these elections. On an average, it has lost around 24 per cent of the vote share it recorded in the central elections. In Karnataka, it can’t afford to lose more than 15 per cent which will take it up to 37 per cent of total vote share in the state. [...] NOTA may also play a role. Higher NOTA will benefit Congress, as it denotes people unhappy with Congress but not confident of BJP /JD(S) solving their problems. An analysis of top five NOTA-voting big states shows that four of them returned the incumbent government to power. A high NOTA vote share of greater than 1.5-2 per cent will help the Congress.