evidence: So, what can we learn from analytical failures in the "Putin case"? In a Foreign Affairs article, "Why Smart Leaders Do Stupid Things," the political scientist Keren Yarhi-Milo warned that "great powers and their mercurial leaders may miscalculate or act in irrational and neurotic ways." The warning should be taken into particular account during crisis scenarios. As examples, consider Chinese President Xi Jinping’s dealings with Taiwan or former US President Donald Trump’s position on NATO: in neither case can decisions based on a purely rational cost-benefit calculation be expected. [...] It is hard to determine whether "fraternization" between Putin and Xi Jinping, also staged for publicity, stems from personal sympathy, strategic calculation, or both. During Putin’s recent visit to Beijing, the Chinese president called his Russian counterpart an "old friend"; Putin said they were "like brothers." Statements of this kind have had an impact on both Russian and Chinese public opinion, as well as on a wider global audience. If the most important men in China and Russia decide to present this kind of "Russo-Chinese friendship show," as described by Christoph Giesen and Christina Hebel in a recent issue of German newsweekly Der Spiegel, it puts a deliberately emotional spin on their strategic alliance of convenience.