evidence: Annual growth is expected to average only 1.7 percent y-o-y over the medium term as global demand weakens and fiscal austerity limits capital investments. Mining, tourism, and private investment in hospitality capacity and infrastructure are expected to drive growth. External account balances are expected to slightly deteriorate as tourism and remittances growth is expected to slow amid weaker economic conditions in the US and UK, partially offset by reduced spending on imports in the context of lower commodity prices. [...] The fiscal account is expected to reverse to surplus over the medium term as a result of improvements in tax revenue and prudent spending. Spending is expected to decline slightly due to lower interest payments. Public debt is projected to remain on a downward trajectory, declining to 65.9 percent of GDP by 2026. Gross reserves are expected to remain at healthy levels. Significant downside risks to the economic outlook include a possible deeper-than-expected global economic slowdown. Further tightening of financial market conditions could raise the cost of borrowing, curtail private investments, and derail longer-term growth, climate change adaptation, and debt objectives. Worsening crime, social unrest, and natural hazards could also impair growth and poverty reduction.