evidence: Electoral Violence in Kenya [...] Six factors make the prospects for electoral violence particularly high in the run-up to and in the immediate aftermath of the 2013 elections: [...] - Outbreaks of sporadic violence as election campaigns ramp up. Most election-related violence to date has been associated with county-level races (e.g., for governor and senator) rather than with presidential contests, as occurred in 1992, 1997, and 2007. Violence at these localized levels, though troubling, is more containable than violence arising from the presidential race. The likelihood that both types of violence will occur is difficult to estimate, but is arguably as high as 50 percent depending on which contingency scenario evolves between now and the elections.