evidence: Trump’s fettered status will be driven home today when he has his first command performance as a convict, an interview with the probation office that can cover any number of factors for consideration in the office’s sentencing recommendation. [...] Probation officials are likely to emphasize Trump’s incorrigibility in the report they provide to Justice Juan Merchan, who has a reputation of being tough on white-collar offenders. Personally, I don’t think Trump will serve prison time in 2024 for this particular conviction. If Merchan does impose a sentence of jail followed by probation, my guess is he will then stay the sentence to permit Trump to pursue his one mandatory appeal. Many factors will weigh in favor of a prison sentence at some point, including the 10 violations of Merchan’s gag order, the recent criminal conviction of the Trump Organization, and possibly the finding in the E. Jean Carroll defamation trials that Trump sexually assaulted Carroll (which Trump continues to deny). [...] Once he becomes a probationer, Trump, who all his life has acted as if the rules don’t apply to him, would exist in a "pretty please" world, subject to the ultimate discretion of a judge whom he has trashed ceaselessly and in vile terms.