evidence: It is essential not to draw facile, hasty or triumphalist political conclusions from these new census figures. A cultural Catholic plurality in Northern Ireland does not automatically translate into a rapid majority favouring a united Ireland. There is an ebb and flow of opinion among Catholics in favour of devolution within the UK over the last two decades depending on the effectiveness of power-sharing. Many nationalists still need to be convinced Irish unity would enhance their political and economic well-being. They see the need for more community reconciliation, a fuller working out of the Belfast Agreement institutions and greater participation in the Irish Government’s Shared Island initiative before that decision is posed and made. Preparation for possible futures as part of a transformed Irish state or within a reformed United Kingdom is nevertheless advisable for all communities in Northern Ireland. A weakening, more fragmented and less prosperous UK union drives the debates on Scottish independence, Welsh futures and Brexit, making it prudent to anticipate potentially rapid change in Britain. The importance of ‘others’ in the North’s electoral politics, reflected in growing support for the Alliance party, makes it necessary for unionists to develop convincing pragmatic arguments in favour of the UK’s union or of Irish unity by its supporters. [...] The immediate priority should be to restore the power-sharing institutions and develop them so they can better reflect this more pluralist Northern Ireland.