evidence: As the events of 2019 unfolded amid rising and intensifying global tensions, the effects began to show up in the economic data and forecasts. Each year, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) produces biannual economic forecasts for global GDP and growth for the current year and the following one. Back in October 2018 the IMF projected global economic growth for 2019 to be 3.7%—a rate similar to the average for the period spanning 2011 to 2018. The IMF’s October 2018 estimate used economic data that showed the upswing in growth that had started in late 2016 and lasted for approximately 2 years. What the October 2018 estimate could not capture was the gradual slowing of the global economy that had begun in the second half of 2018. By April 2019, however, the data started reflecting this slowdown, and the IMF revised its estimate for 2019 growth down to 3.3%—0.4 percentage point lower than its October 2018 estimate. Further global trade and geopolitical tensions combined with macroeconomic and financial stress in emerging markets throughout 2019 prompted the IMF in October 2019 to further downgrade its growth estimate to 3.0%. [...] Data source: National Bureau of Statistics (China)