evidence: Americans tend to think that crime is rising, but the evidence we have right now points to sizable declines this year (even if there are always outliers). The quarterly data in particular suggests 2023 featured one of the lowest rates of violent crime in the United States in more than 50 years. [...] The decline in crime shown in the quarterly data — if realized — would be historically large. To put some of this in perspective, a 4 percent decline in the nation’s violent crime rate relative to 2022’s reported rate would lead to the lowest violent crime rate nationally since 1969. [...] As I said above, the quarterly data is not the complete national estimates which will be published by the FBI next year, so a grain of salt is needed when thinking of how large the declines will be. That said, the percent changes shown in the quarterly data would be the largest percent declines ever recorded in overall violent crime, murder, rape, and aggravated assault with near-record high declines in robbery, overall property crime, theft, and burglary.