evidence: Central estimates in the recent literature broadly agree that global mean sea level is likely to rise 20–30 cm by 20503,4,5,6,7,8,9,10. End-of-century projections diverge more, with typical central estimates ranging from 50–70 cm under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 70–100 cm under RCP 8.53,9,10,12, though more recent projections incorporating Antarctic ice sheet dynamics indicate that sea levels may rise 70–100 cm under RCP 4.5 and 100–180 cm under RCP 8.5, and could even exceed 2 m or more in far-tail scenarios4,7,8,11. Via a structured elicitation of opinion, experts now estimate there is a 5 percent chance 21st century sea-level rise will exceed 2 m29. Essentially all estimates are below the vertical bias of SRTM. Of these, we consider two representative sea-level projections for this assessment, labeled here as K143 and K174. K14 is a probabilistic projection that is closely aligned with IPCC findings10,30, while K17 is not probabilistic and emphasizes the possibility of more rapid sea-level rise because of unstable ice-sheet dynamics31. Further details of these models are discussed in the methods section. [...] Church, J. A. et al. Sea-level rise by 2100. Science342, 1445 (2013).