evidence: If China’s energy security is to rely on land-based oil and gas pipelines connecting friendly energy producers to China, the pipelines must be outside the effective military reach of hostile powers. According to the DoD’s China report, the critical first phase of Beijing’s three-phase military modernisation programme is expected to be completed by 2027. From a military perspective, the most logical land route to seize Kashgar would be to march an expeditionary force along the road which runs from Kargil, on the Line of Control with Pakistan near the west bank of the Indus River in the Indian union territory of Ladakh, and cross into Pakistan-held Kashmir, proceeding via Skardu to Gilgit and then following the road connecting Gilgit to the Khunjerab Pass. Essentially, the invasion route would run through Pakistan-administered Kashmir, over which India claims sovereignty as the area was part of the erstwhile princely state of Jammu and Kashmir when it acceded to India in October 1947. The only way China can prevent such a possible attack would be to pre-emptively wrest control of a strategically significant portion of Eastern Ladakh from India and to annex the seized territory and incorporate it into Aksai Chin.