evidence: I had also submitted an abstract with Stephen Lewandowsky and James Risbey called "Bets reveal people’s opinions on climate change and illustrate the statistics of climate change," and a companion poster entitled "Forty years of expert opinion on global warming: 1977-2017" in which we proposed to survey the conference attendees: Forecasts of anthropogenic global warming in the 1970s (e.g. Broecker, 1975, Charney et al., 1979) were taken seriously by policy makers. At that time, climate change was already broadly recognized within the US defense and intelligence establishments as a threat to national and global security, particularly due to climate’s effect on food production. There was uncertainty about the degree of global warming, and media-hyped speculation about global cooling confused the public. Because science-informed policy decisions needed to be made in the face of this uncertainty, the US Department of Defense funded a study in 1977 by National Defense University (NDU) called "Climate Change to the Year 2000" in which a panel of experts was surveyed. Contrary to the recent mythology of a global cooling scare in the 1970s, the NDU report (published in 1978) concluded that, "Collectively, the respondents tended to anticipate a slight global warming rather than a cooling". Despite the rapid global warming since 1977, this subject remains politically contentious. We propose to use our poster presentation to survey the attendees of the Fourth Santa Fe Conference on Global and Regional Climate Change and to determine how expert opinion has changed in the last 40 years.