evidence: The implications of the ruling are less clear for Scarborough Shoal, an isolated feature several hundred miles northeast of the Spratly Islands that is much closer to Manila. It was declared a rock above water at high-tide and therefore entitled to a territorial sea. Based on the tribunal’s ruling, the shoal is wholly within the Philippines EEZ. While it is unoccupied, it has been under de facto Chinese control since 2012, a highly unusual situation. [...] China can no longer justify such claims with reference to UNCLOS. This affirmation of Southeast Asian countries’ land-based maritime resource rights in the South China Sea reflects the geographical fact that their coastlines are much closer to the disputed area than China’s. Removing the Spratlys from the jurisdictional picture beyond a handful of enclaved territorial seas potentially eases the path towards a cooperative high-seas resource-sharing solution in the future. Getting there, however, will still be very difficult. [...] Nonetheless, the Philippines is currently enjoying calm weather at the eye of the South China Sea storm. While China has directed invective at supporters of the tribunal ruling, including Australia, the new Philippine government of Rodrigo Duterte has been spared the worst. Thus far Manila has held its post-tribunal-ruling cards closely, avoiding the twin pitfalls of hubris or submission to China. One can even imagine the basis for a bilateral grand bargain with Beijing, including a swap of Scarborough Shoal for, say, Second Thomas Shoal. But Philippine policy under Duterte remains unpredictable, with the potential to undercut the effect of the tribunal’s ruling.