evidence: We limit our analysis to a relatively short projection time: the first six months of the vaccination campaign. Our estimates are therefore not generalizable to the entire period of the vaccination campaign. In subsequent months, booster doses, the expansion of the Pfizer vaccine to children aged 5–11, waning immunity, and the establishment of the more virulent Delta and immune-evading Omicron variants have made estimation of vaccine effects more challenging. These later phases of the pandemic driven by new variants led to tens of millions of Covid-19 infections. We are not able to say definitively whether the averted cases, hospitalizations and deaths quantified in this analysis were truly averted or merely delayed. Nevertheless, it can be argued that these early averted cases were crucial, as this period was prior to the widespread availability of antiviral medication and a time with substantially lower population immunity against severe outcomes.