evidence: We also note that the full effect of COVID-19 vaccination on hospitalizations and deaths derives from two effects: those averted due to averted cases; and those averted due to improved outcomes in vaccinated individuals if infected. The estimates of averted hospitalizations and deaths in this analysis are restricted to the effect of averted cases and do not include reductions in the probability of hospitalization and death among the vaccinated if infected–as a result, they likely underestimate the true number of averted hospitalizations and deaths. Each of the approved COVID-19 vaccines has been shown to be highly effective in preventing severe outcomes in individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2. Here, we assumed that the contribution of the second effect was relatively small compared to the first, as the vaccines were shown to be highly effective at preventing infections in the short term after inoculation and against the strains circulating at the time of the study [23–25].