evidence: Our findings show that current subsidies paid by governments that stimulate production induce both higher global agricultural output (0.9%) and emissions (0.6%). The existing market price support to farmers provided by trade barriers has almost no effect on global agricultural production and reduces GHG emissions by ~2% compared to a situation without such agricultural market protection. Combined, the coupled subsidies and border measures slightly increase global farm output (by 1.1%), while reducing global GHG emissions from agriculture by around 1.7%. These small net impacts arise because border measures in rich countries lower global demand more than they increase supply and induce shifts from relatively high emission-intensity producers to lower-emission-intensity producers in the rich countries. Coupled subsidies, by contrast, provide incentives to expand emission-intensive agricultural activities without any offsetting impact on demand. The upshot is that, on balance, current agricultural subsidies and trade protection appear to have a very modest impact on global emissions.