evidence: When all the 2024 presidential votes are counted, my guess (and a guess is all that I can offer) is that Biden will keep his defeat among white Catholics to within 20 points, and that Trump’s support among non-evangelical working-class whites—the white "Catholic plumbers"—will have ticked up a few points over its 2020 level, but still give Biden an absolute majority. [...] But disfavor him how much more and how strongly? From 2016 to 2020, Trump’s college-educated white evangelical vote fell 18 points from 81% to 63%, for a 22% dip. Were 2024 to witness another dip that size or greater, he would not win a majority of that vote. I sincerely doubt that will happen, but even another 5% slide from 63% would put him below 60%. That’s not inconceivable. [...] - For the NBC News polling data presented in this section pertaining to the 2016 and 2020 presidential general elections and the 2024 GOP presidential primaries in six states, I am deeply grateful to Stephanie Perry, the Executive Director of Penn’s Program for Opinion Research and Election Studies (PORES) and Manager of Polling for NBC News. Any errors respecting those data are entirely mine alone.