evidence: To understand the impacts of net migration, we must return to the 2018-based population projections (Figure 3). In England and Wales, net international migration was projected to make the largest contributions to population change by 2043 (+8% and +5%, respectively). Scotland would experience considerable population decline (-8%) in the absence of net international migration, and it is also the nation that receives the highest percentage population growth due to cross-border migration from other parts of the UK. By contrast, natural change without net migration is projected to be the main driver of future population trends in Northern Ireland (+4%), due to its higher fertility rate.