evidence: One consequence of this split is that states dominated by Democrats are facing somewhat deeper budget problems than ones led by Republicans, because the crisis has done more damage to their tax bases. Early in the crisis, it wasn’t at all obvious this would be the case. But recent projections from economists at Brookings, the Federal Reserve, and the University of California–Berkeley suggest that, while almost all states are facing large revenue shortfalls next year, the largest will be in New York, Washington, California, and Hawaii. State and local aid wouldn’t be a "blue state bailout," as Senate conservatives have claimed (Texas, Georgia, and Louisiana are facing plenty of fiscal challenges of their own). But deep blue states are in especially dire need of help. [...] Again, Republicans have been loath to pass fiscal aid for state and local governments, in part because they believed they would be bailing out irresponsible blue states. They probably aren’t wrong about who needs the money most at this point. But the reason Democratic-run states are suffering more right now seems to come to down factors that are out of their hands, like the size of their service sectors, or to decisions that are saving lives.