evidence: "Claim: Climate scientists disagree about how much warming is associated with our emissions and whether this warming is larger than natural climate variability from the sun and volcanic eruptions" "Key takeaway: Scientific evidence shows that modern global warming is primarily driven by increasing CO2 emissions from human activities. There is no evidence that solar variations or volcanic activity are substantial drivers of recent climate change." [...] I could cite hundreds of papers published in refereed science journals that question whether the recent warming is larger than natural climate variability (many of these papers have been discussed on this blog). The IPCC chooses to ignore these papers. This does not mean that disagreement among scientists does not exist. In fact, the IPCC AR4 and AR5 conclusions about attribution are framed in terms of "most of the warming" and "more than half of the global average surface temperature increase". So >50%. Imagining 49% is not farfetched. The IPCC AR4 talks about "unresolved internal variability" to justify using the relatively weak "most".