evidence: On a gross basis, we estimate Biden’s FY 2025 budget would increase taxes by about $4.4 trillion over that period. After taking various credits into account, the increase would be about $3.4 trillion. The tax increases would substantially increase marginal tax rates on investment, saving, and work, reducing economic output by 1.6 percent in the long run, wages by 1.1 percent, and employment by 666,000 full-time equivalent jobs. [...] Biden also proposes quadrupling the IRA’s 1 percent excise taxAn excise tax is a tax imposed on a specific good or activity. Excise taxes are commonly levied on cigarettes, alcoholic beverages, soda, gasoline, insurance premiums, amusement activities, and betting, and typically make up a relatively small and volatile portion of state and local and, to a lesser extent, federal tax collections. on stock buybacks. Stock buybacks are one of the ways businesses return value to their shareholders. Companies can return earnings to shareholders by issuing dividends (namely cash payments) or with stock buybacks (purchasing shares of their own company). As much as 95 percent of the money returned to shareholders from stock buybacks subsequently gets reinvested in other public companies. Quadrupling the tax rate would likely discourage firms from pursuing stock buybacks, potentially tilting toward more dividend issuances instead, and could discourage investment.