evidence: The fifth possible flashpoint is Scarborough Shoal, a high-tide rock whose territorial sea was declared by the arbitral tribunal as a common fishing ground of Philippine, Chinese and Vietnamese fishermen. Scarborough Shoal is about 120 nautical miles from the coast of the Philippines’ Zambales Province, the nearest land mass to Scarborough Shoal. China seized Scarborough Shoal from the Philippines in mid-2012, triggering the arbitration case that the Philippines filed against China. China plans to dredge Scarborough Shoal and convert it into an air and naval base to complete China’s control of the entire South China Sea. At present, China has no air and naval base in the northern part of the South China Sea. An air base in Scarborough Shoal will allow Chinese warplanes to cover the entire South China Sea from bases in islands on the eastern and western side of the South China Sea. It will also allow Chinese warplanes to easily reach the Bashi Channel, the gateway to the Pacific for China’s nuclear-armed submarines whose ballistic missiles at present can reach the continental United States only if fired from the Pacific Ocean. Of course, a Chinese air and naval base in Scarborough Shoal will be important for China if it invades Taiwan.