evidence: The Ukrainian military has been doing extraordinarily well given the limitations it faces in equipment and training as well as the ability of Russian occupiers to dig in and entrench their positions. In July, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken noted that the Ukrainians had retaken roughly 50 percent of the territory seized by Russia since its 2022 invasion. Since then, the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Zaporizhzhia province has gained more ground as Ukrainian troops have penetrated at least the first Russian defensive line. But the Ukrainians are still not close to reaching the Sea of Azov, which would allow them to sever the "land bridge" between Russian-occupied Crimea and the Russian-occupied Donbas in eastern Ukraine. [...] In the first few months following their invasion in February 2022, the Russians were on the offensive. They have since been on the defensive as the Ukrainians have been clawing back lost territory. If Ukraine’s counteroffensive gains momentum in the coming weeks, there is always the possibility of a larger collapse of Russian positions. But Russia will almost certainly retain control of a large chunk of Ukrainian territory at the end of the year. Next year, with the aid of new weapons such as ATACMS and F-16s, the Ukrainians have a chance to liberate more territory, finally breaking the land bridge in southern Ukraine.