evidence: In the media, it is often the "case fatality rate" that is talked about when the risk of death from COVID-19 is discussed.1 [...] There is a straightforward question that most people would like answered. If someone is infected with COVID-19, how likely is that person to die? [...] Whenever there are cases of the disease that are not counted, the probability of dying from the disease is lower than the reported case fatality rate. Remember our imaginary scenario with 10 deaths and 100 cases. The CFR in that example is 10% – but if there actually 500 cases (and we’ve simply missed 400 of them due to lack of testing), then the real risk (the IFR) is just 2%.