evidence: Second, violence between Israel and Hezbollah has already started to climb after nearly two decades of low-level conflict. Since October 7, there have been more than 4,400 violent incidents concentrated around the Blue Line and the Golan Heights involving Israel and Hezbollah, according to CSIS analysis. In addition, CSIS analysis indicates that Hezbollah’s anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs) have struck Israeli forces from concealed launch sites less than three kilometers from the Blue Line on at least 17 occasions since October 7, a clear violation of UNSCR 1701. [...] While Hezbollah has historically used its rockets and missiles to impose pain on Israel rather than as part of combined arms operations, an important unknown is how Hezbollah might use its rocket and (to a lesser extent) missile capabilities in support of ground operations against the IDF. Hezbollah could attempt to capture territory in northern Israel or the Golan Heights in a Hezbollah-Israel war, or at least conduct raids there.[36] This would require ground maneuver, which modern militaries usually enable using suppressive fire from artillery or air platforms. Hezbollah demonstrated the ability to integrate ground maneuver with suppressive fires in Syria, and it may attempt to do so in a war with Israel. Such tactics are difficult in practice, and expertise is probably unevenly distributed across Hezbollah’s military forces. IDF air defenses and air power would also limit Hezbollah’s ability to use its rockets and missiles in this manner.