evidence: IHP’s SLOTS MRP estimates using interviews conducted to 13 September indicate that Anura Dissanayake would have won the Presidential Election on a count of second preference votes if the Presidential Election had been held in early September. In the MRP estimates of the views of all adults, Anura Dissayanake led with 48%, followed by Sajith Premadasa on 25%, Ranil Wickremesinghe on 20%, and Namal Rajapaksa on 5%. These estimates were associated with a margin of error of 3–6% for the three leading candidates. [...] Dr Rannan-Eliya commented that in almost all the MRP simulations that were done, Anura Dissanayake had a sufficient lead on the first preference votes to achieve a win once second preference choices were accounted for. He also noted that in 7% of the simulations, Ranil Wickremesinghe came second overall.