evidence: Moreover, the UAEs military forces either on their own or in combination with those of the GCC cannot deter the federations principal security threat, Iran. The federation claims that Iran illegally occupies Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs, but Tehran has refused to relinquish control over these three islands. UAE officials believe that the best way to restrain Iranian expansion in the southern Gulf is to integrate a unified, militarily strong Iraq into the Gulfs balance of power. The problem with this strategy is that the United States, which currently dominates the Gulfs military balance, believes that the current regime in Baghdad threatens regional security and opposes any plan that would reintegrate Iraq into an international security structure. [...] While it is true that the Iranians currently deployed on Abu Musa and the Tunbs could harass Gulf shipping or attack UAE cities, the fact remains that the United States maintains a strong enough military presence in the Persian Gulf to drive Iran off the islands. Moreover, Tehran has other bases in Bandar Abbas, Qishim Island and several other areas near the strait of Hormuz much better situated for attacks on Gulf shipping than either Abu Musa or the Greater or the Lesser Tunbs. Because of the short distances separating Iran and the UAE, neither state today could take military action against the others positions on the islands without jeopardizing its own security. This vulnerability in large part explains why the dispute over Abu Musa and the Tunbs has, and likely will remain, largely a war of words. 23