There is a risk that #Azerbaijan, leveraging its good relations with #Israel, may attempt to obtain permission from U.S. President Donald Trump to carry out a military attack against #Armenia. It has become known that Israel is negotiating with the U.S. to establish a strong foundation for trilateral cooperation between Israel, Azerbaijan, and the #US This was reported by the Israeli Prime Minister’s office, according to The Jerusalem Post.

You can support my work by donating through Buy Me a Coffee. It’s important. Your donation will help me continue posting analytics regularly on X. Link here:During a discussion in the Knesset on the "Strategic Alliance between Israel and Azerbaijan" Simon Moshiashvili, a member of the Shas party, stated that Azerbaijan is Israel’s strategic ally in the #Caucasus in the fields of security, trade, technology, and energy.

Speaking on behalf of the government, Minister of National Missions Orit Strook stated that Israel-Azerbaijan relations are built on a unique partnership, mutual interests, and long-term friendship. She added that "Israel will continue to strengthen cooperation with Azerbaijan and the #USA and will stand against any attempts to undermine these relations." Moshiashvili also claimed that "Azerbaijan, which is a key part of the regional security architecture, suffers from U.S. sanctions."

It is evident that Azerbaijan is trying to establish connections with Donald Trump's administration through Israel. Azerbaijan wants to sign a strategic partnership agreement with the U.S., as Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev announced months ago. It is no secret that U.S. President Donald #Trump is a pro-Israel politician. Azerbaijan's calculation is to use the positive ties between Israel and #Trump to reset relations with the U.S. so that an aggression against Armenia does not trigger American sanctions.

It is no coincidence that Shas party member Simon Moshiashvili emphasized the claim that Azerbaijan is allegedly suffering from U.S. sanctions. Baku is also trying to use Israel to push for the repeal of Section 907 of the U.S. Freedom Support Act, which suspended American military aid to Azerbaijan due to its aggression against Armenia. The #Biden administration reactivated this sanction against Azerbaijan to prevent Baku’s military aggression against Armenia. Now, Azerbaijan will attempt to use the Israeli factor to lift this sanction.

According to my information, Azerbaijani President Aliyev was able to have a phone conversation with Donald Trump only with great difficulty. Aliyev paid lobbyists to arrange a call with Trump. He will try to convince Trump’s administration that U.S.-Azerbaijan relations deteriorated because of Biden, whom Aliyev will accuse of pro-Armenian policies.

In reality, the Biden administration has not pursued a pro-Armenian policy but has accurately condemned Azerbaijan’s military aggression against Armenia, the occupation of Armenian territories, the occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh, and the forced displacement of 120,000 Armenians. Biden has called things by their name. 

President Trump also condemned the forced displacement of Armenian Christians from #Karabakh and stated that if he were president, it would not have happened. He expressed a desire to establish peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. I hope President Trump will remain committed to his mission as a peacemaker and that Azerbaijan will not succeed.

Aliyev will try to offer the U.S. joint energy projects through Israel to win Trump’s administration's favor and obtain permission for military aggression against Armenia. Aliyev's calculation is that President Trump will agree to Azerbaijan’s upcoming military attack on Armenia in exchange for joint economic projects. Meanwhile, Trump’s administration should use its good relations with Israel to halt Israeli arms sales to Azerbaijan, which is arming itself to wage war against Armenia. 

More than 50% of Azerbaijan’s military arsenal consists of weapons purchased from Israel. Israel should not sell weapons to Azerbaijan, which is preparing for war against Armenia. Trump’s administration can contribute to peace by urging Israel to stop arming Azerbaijan.

However, I see a risk that Azerbaijan will try to convince Trump’s administration that seizing a corridor from Armenia by military force would benefit the U.S., as it would cut Iran off from Armenia and encircle Iran from the north. I hope Trump’s administration will not agree to this because, in reality, Azerbaijan intends to hand over the seized corridor to #Russia and #China. 

Azerbaijan has a strategic partnership agreement with China. Armenia is the only country in the South Caucasus that does not have a strategic partnership agreement with China. In contrast, our country has a strategic partnership agreement with the U.S. Georgia is also a strategic partner of China.

According to the strategic partnership agreement signed between China and Azerbaijan on July 3, 2024, "the two countries will also support each other’s efforts to ensure the security and uninterrupted operation of international transport corridors passing through their territories, creating favorable conditions for transit transportation within the framework of national legislation and bilateral agreements." 

This could mean that if Azerbaijan seizes a corridor from Armenia, it may also serve China’s interests by integrating it into China’s "Middle Corridor" project. However, if Armenia’s proposed "Crossroads of Peace" project is implemented, China and Russia will not have the opportunity to control such a corridor through Azerbaijan. 

Moreover, through the implementation of the U.S.-Armenia strategic partnership agreement, the U.S. can fully participate in the regional unblocking of the South Caucasus and infrastructure development, preventing China’s growing influence in the region.

What evidence suggests that Azerbaijan will attempt to establish an energy partnership with the U.S. through Israel to gain permission for military aggression against Armenia? Recently, Azerbaijan’s state oil company (SOCAR) acquired a 10% stake in Israel’s Tamar natural gas field, located on the Mediterranean coast, from Israeli businessman Aaron Frenkel, according to The Times of Israel. Azerbaijan’s #SOCAR purchased the shares of Union Energy, controlled by Frenkel. In 2022, Frenkel bought an 11% stake in the Tamar gas field from Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala Petroleum for about $520 million.

Discovered in 2009, gas extraction at the Tamar field began in 2013. Israel’s second-largest gas field, located about 90 kilometers west of Haifa in the Mediterranean Sea, contains approximately 10 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.

The American energy giant Chevron owns a 25% stake here. Other partners include Isramco, Tamar Investment 2, Tamar Petroleum, and Dor Gas. This is not SOCAR’s first attempt to enter the Israeli natural gas market. In 2023, SOCAR joined a consortium that includes the British multinational oil and gas companies BP and NewMed Energy to submit a bid for licenses to explore and discover natural gas fields near Israel’s Leviathan gas field, one of the largest in the world.

Israel-Azerbaijan relations have strengthened in recent years against the backdrop of Israel’s support for Azerbaijan during its conflict with Armenia. Israel is one of Azerbaijan’s leading arms suppliers. Azerbaijan’s most significant contribution to Israel’s national security is oil. This project will be SOCAR’s first venture into exploratory drilling outside Azerbaijan’s borders.
#Azerbaijan #Israel #Armenia #US #Caucasus #USA #Trump #Trump #Biden #Karabakh #Russia #China #SOCAR