🔥 #Bitcoin’s $400K Target in 2025? 🔥
(NFA)

@apsk32's analysis reframes Bitcoin's valuation outside the fiat money distortion by using gold as a baseline. The power law fit (R²=0.96) confirms #BTC’s network effect, aligning with Metcalfe’s Law.

Key takeaways:
✅ BTC’s market cap in gold follows a predictable power-law trajectory 
✅ Historically, price peaks track “years ahead” of the trendline - we’re near the 1-year-ahead mark 
✅ Four-year cycle remains intact - aligning with historical October-November peaks

Implication? If the trend holds, $400K BTC in 2025 isn’t far-fetched. Selling BTC to rebuy later is risky - you’re already holding the best asset in the world.

Bitcoin’s growth aligns qualitatively with Metcalfe’s Law (adoption drives price), but its price dynamics over time follow a power law. This means:

i) Metcalfe explains why BTC gains long-term value (network effect).
ii) The power law helps predict price movements and where BTC is in its adoption cycle.

(Also refer to @Giovann35084111 @moneyordebt @Sina_21st @TheRealPlanC @sminston_with power law and quantile models)

Disclaimer: The Power Law model assumes Bitcoin’s market cap will continue following a historical trajectory relative to gold, but this overlooks macro shifts, regulatory changes, and liquidity dynamics. It doesn’t factor in demand-supply shocks, black swan events, or Bitcoin’s evolving role in global markets. Gold itself is an imperfect benchmark, and extreme market conditions can cause prolonged deviations from the model. While the four-year cycle has held historically, it may weaken as Bitcoin matures. Ultimately, this model provides a useful probabilistic framework but shouldn’t be relied on in isolation for investment decisions.
#Bitcoin #BTC