One of Bitcoin’s Main Long-Term Risks 🚨 

Contrary to what Satoshi Nakamoto envisioned, #Bitcoin has not become a global payment network.

Instead, it has evolved into the greatest financial asset and store of value in human history (not a bad outcome at all)

One of the main reasons (and perhaps the most important) for Bitcoin’s current status is its network security.

Miners compete with each other, earning financial rewards through newly mined #BTC and transaction fees, securing the network in the process.

The Big Question: What Happens When Most BTC Is Mined?

Right now, miners are primarily incentivized by block rewards. The revenue they earn from newly mined coins is significantly higher than what they receive from transaction fees.

But what happens when most or all BTC has been mined? At that point, miners will rely mainly on transaction fees for profit.

For the network to remain secure, we need a high volume of transactions so that miners continue earning enough revenue to sustain operations.

However, in the previous cycle (2021), we saw a trend where the number of active addresses started to decline (see the blue line on the chart).

Why Is This Happening?

The answer is clear: Bitcoin is increasingly being used as a store of value. The market recognizes its value and potential, so savvy investors simply buy and hold.

That means: Buy, transfer to your wallet, and never move your coins again.

This is great for price stability, but as mentioned earlier, it could be counterproductive for network security, something Satoshi Nakamoto didn’t originally design Bitcoin for.

Will Bitcoin Overcome This Challenge?

Before Bitcoin maxis jump in, let’s explain why this may not be a real problem.

The good news is that as Bitcoin adoption grows, its price in USD continues to rise.

So, if active addresses keep decreasing while the price keeps going up, it shouldn’t be an issue.

In fact, that’s exactly how a store of value should function.

You store value, you don’t move it around. Just like gold (except for those who like carrying large gold bars, but that’s not the norm).

What Could the Future Look Like?

If we chart BTC price vs. active addresses, we might see two complementary exponential curves:

- Exponential price growth (until it stabilizes, whether at $1M, $10M… who knows?)
- Exponential decline in active addresses, though likely never reaching zero

I’ve projected these trends (white and blue lines) in the chart after 2025. 

A 10-year period seems reasonable for these parameters to stabilize.

What do you think?

Will Bitcoin’s active addresses continue to decline?

Does this pose a real risk to the network?

Drop your thoughts below 👇
#Bitcoin #BTC