📊Market cycle comparison: 📊 $Bitcoin Shows 2015-18 Cycle Pattern

Key points:

• Cyclical Market Growth: The rate of #Bitcoin price appreciation has declined cycle by cycle, reflecting a path into market maturity. The drawdown profile of this cycle thus far closely resembles that of the 2015–2017 cycle. Prior cycles also hint at a potential acceleration phase in the bull market, which tends to occur around this time (relative to the cycle low).

• Realized Cap Expansion: The Realized Cap has grown by 2.1x in this cycle so far, below the 5.7x peak of the last cycle and aligns with the 2015–2018 cycle at this stage. The euphoria phase has yet to fully impact Realized Cap, indicating potential room for further market expansion.

• #Exchange Balances vs. $ETF Wallets: We assess that the recent drop in exchange balances to 2.7M #BTC is primarily due to supply migrating into ETF wallets, many of which are managed by custodians like @Coinbase. Combined exchange and #ETF balances have remained stable at around 3M $BTC, reflecting a shift in market structure rather than a supply shock.

• Capital Rotation Insights: Bull markets are characterized by long-term holders distributing coins to new investors. Recent capital rotation trends have seen the #Bitcoin uptrend holding $100k, underscoring the key role that new buyers have in supporting price momentum.

DeFlow Global Coverage | Source: Glassnode Insights
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