article_snippet: One only has to look at the debacle that has unfolded in Iraq after the withdrawal of U.S. troops at the end of 2011 to have a sneak preview of what could take place in an Afghanistan without some kind of residual American presence.
article_snippet: Without American forces in Afghanistan, there is a strong possibility Afghanistan could host a reinvigorated Taliban allied to a reinvigorated al Qaeda, not to mention ISIS, which is gaining a foothold in the region.
article_snippet: Needless to say, this would be a disaster for Afghanistan.
article_snippet: But this would also be quite damaging to U.S. interests to have some kind of resurgent al Qaeda in the country where the group trained the hijackers for the 9/11 attacks.
article_snippet: It would also be disastrous for the Democratic Party, should the Democratic Party win the presidency in 2016, to be the party that "lost" Afghanistan.
article_snippet: After all, the Democratic Party is viewed by some as weaker on national security than the Republicans and it is inevitable that without some kind of residual American presence in Afghanistan, al Qaeda would gain sufficient strength to launch an attack from the Afghan-Pakistan border region against American interests somewhere in the world.
article_snippet: Merely because the Obama administration will be almost out the door at the end of 2016 doesn't mean that suddenly at the same time that the Taliban will lay down the Taliban arms, nor that the Afghan army will be able to fight the Taliban completely unaided.
article_snippet: Nor does it mean that al Qaeda -- and ISIS, which is beginning to establish small cells in Afghanistan -- would cease to be a threat.
article_snippet: This U.S. military presence in Afghanistan doesn't have to be a large, nor does This U.S. military presence in Afghanistan need to play a combat role, but U.S. troops should remain in Afghanistan to advise the Afghan army and provide intelligence support.
article_snippet: Such a long-term commitment of several thousand American troops is exactly the kind of force that the President Obama administration was forced to deploy to Iraq following ISIS's lightning advances there over the past year.
article_snippet: Selling a longer-term U.S. military presence in Afghanistan would be pushing against an open door with that nation's government.
article_snippet: Consider that within 24 hours of being installed, the new Afghan government led by Ghani and Abdullah signed the basing agreement that allows American troops to stay in Afghanistan until December 2016.
article_snippet: Consider also that the new Afghan government led by Ghani and Abdullah has already negotiated a strategic partnership agreement with the United States lasting until 2024 that would provide the framework for a longer term U.S. military presence.
article_snippet: Consider also that many Afghans see a relatively small, but long-term international troop presence as a guarantor of Afghans stability.
article_snippet: It is also not in Pakistan's interests for Afghanistan to fall to the Taliban or be thrust into another civil war.
article_snippet: The Pakistanis have seen for The Pakistanis repeatedly the folly of allowing the Taliban to flourish on The Pakistanis own soil, most recently in the Taliban attack in December on the army school in Peshawar that killed 132 children.
article_snippet: It is in Pakistan's own interest that the Afghan army is able to fight effectively against the Taliban, which is more likely if the Afghan army continue to have American advisers at the Afghan army side.
article_snippet: Other regional powers such as the Chinese worry about Chinese Uighur separatists establishing Uighur on Afghan soil.
article_snippet: Uighur are similarly worried about Islamist terrorist groups located in Afghanistan and so will not stand in the way of a small long-term U.S. military presence in Afghanistan as that would dovetail with Uighur own security concerns about Afghanistan.
article_snippet: Keeping a relatively small, predominantly U.S. Special Forces, presence in Afghanistan to continue to train the Afghan army past December 2016 is a wise policy that would benefit both Afghans and Americans.
highlights_snippet: Peter Bergen: The move would invite the kind of chaos we've seen in Iraq .