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Prudens Speculari: Recessions... Fantasy and the Real World
Much thanks to Mike Panzner over at Financial Armageddon blog and author of the book of the same name along with the sequel When Giants Fall for bringing to my attention the recent comments from Wal-Mart's CEO of U.S. business Bill Simon. Given these comments, which I will get into below, I absolutely had to bring up the news from Monday from the NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research. It seems, now you may want to sit down for this, that according to the NBER that the recession officially ended in June 2009.
This is fantastic or should I say fantasy news but whatever you do, please don't tell those people walking away from their mortgages in droves that it ended. And please don't tell those institutions like Morgan Stanley that are walking away from commercial mortgages that it ended. But most importantly whatever you do don't tell those end of the month Wal-Mart shoppers the recession is over. They might not believe you.
For those that haven't heard, and that is possible if you get your fill from the propaganda network (CNBC), it seems that Bill Simon, CEO of Wal-Mart U.S. business, made some interesting comments at a Goldman Sachs conference regarding shopper behaviour at a Wal Mart store around midnight at the end of a month.
Given the above good news that the recession ended back in June of 09' I thought it very strange the comments Simon from Wal-Mart provided.
Could the NBER be wrong? Could it's figures be subject to revision? Naaaah, couldn't be. Could they?
What is even stranger is yet another snippet from the real world that Mike also brought to my attention showing insider selling outpacing buying 290-1 via the sleuths over at Zero Hedge. The cats over at Zero Hedge put out so much info it is hard to keep up so mucho appreciation to Mike for catching it and sharing.
Does anyone else find it strange that, if the recession ended already as the NBER has told us it has, why are the insiders tripping over each other to sell?
Or as Lt. Daniel Kaffee said to Col. Nathan Jessop in A Few Good Men ..... if you gave an order that Santiago wasn't to be touched, why would it necessary to transfer him off the base?"
Labels: Open Positions, WMT


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Fitness – Finally… – life's little twists
On March 5, 2008 February 28, 2012 By lifeslittletwistsIn I Me Myself
We’ve both been thinking of getting fitter for quite sometime now. He wanting to loose weight and me wanting to build more stamina – we have totally different needs. And what with the many fitness centers that have sprung up like mushrooms around home and watching really thin people going in and out of it everyday – we decided to make up our minds too 🙂
So this Saturday We went to check out a few of these centers. Can you believe that these 2 are just 3 buildings apart from one another?Most of the gyms have these standard 2 treadmills and 1 step-up and a couple of weight instruments (or should I say machines?). Also they didn’t have any trainers to keep a check on the weight loss or even if we are doing the right exercises. So, we wanted to check out a more ‘reputed’ gym/fitness center a little further from home and were really impressed.It has all that we were looking for – enough trainers/physiotherapists and dietitians who would put us on a fast track to loosing weight and getting fitter.
So hubby finally joined yesterday and he’s already feeling lighter on the pocket by a good 15K (hehehe) and as for me – the guy there said I didn’t need to loose any weight! wow! Felt good hearing that – but now I’m tempted to go too… atleast for a couple of months – by which time that guy promises I can build up stamina AND loose some flab! Hmmm, I sure am interested -very curious to know the ‘fat content’in my body (they do a thorough checkup as soon as we join – he already finished his!). Another incentive is that we both can do something together! They also teach salsa there but *sigh* – one look from him said it all…
Well Am still confused and thinking – do I or don’t I – timings is a problem what with reaching home at different times everyday. Might end up being impulsive today and just go for it – hell! whats 6K when it comes to fitness – right?
3 thoughts on “Fitness – Finally…”
I have already wasted my money on fitness centers… went for a week.. but could not keep up with work schedule and lack of sleep with going there too 😦
March 12, 2008 at 12:47 pm	 Reply
haha! Not yet Sneha! Still thinking… Am too lazy to work out and not having time is the easiest excuse.
March 13, 2008 at 4:25 pm	 Reply

type: global

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Reading Between Classes: Waiting on Wednesday: Sea of Shadows
This week's pre-publication "can't-wait-to-read" selection is: Sea of Shadows by Kelley Armstrong which is due to be released on April 8th
Kelley Armstrong has always been a favorite author of mine. I read her entire Women of the Otherworld series when I was younger and I am currently watching the TV show based on one side of that series: Bitten.
I didn't enjoy her earlier YA series nearly as much as the adult books, but I am hoping that by the time we got to Sea of Shadows, all the kinks have been worked out. It also seems, based on the synopsis, to be a very different series from those that she has written before and I am hoping that works in her favor.
Posted by Zabet at 1:00 AM
ARC Book Review: House of Ivy & Sorrow by Natalie ...
In Anticipation: April 2014
ARC Book Review: A World Without Princes by Soman ...
Waiting on Wednesday: House of Ivy & Sorrow
Audio Book Review: World After by Susan Ee
ARC Book Review: Sea of Shadows by Kelley Armstron...
ARC Book Review: Far From You by Tess Sharpe
Waiting on Wednesday: A World Without Princes
ARC Book Review: The Vigilante Poets of Selwyn Aca...
ARC Book Review: Salvage by Alexandra Duncan
ARC Book Review: Going Over by Beth Kephart
First Lines: February 2014

value: Blogger is an American online content management system (CMS) which enables multi-user blogs with time-stamped entries. Pyra Labs developed it before being acquired by Google in 2003.


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Europe›Greece›South Aegean›Cyclades›Santorini›Kamari›Kamari Restaurants› Irinis Taverna
250 Reviews #38 of 104 Restaurants in Kamari Certificate of Excellence $$ - $$$
Kamari Beach, Kamari 187 57, Greece 250 Reviews | Ranked #40 of 115 To help you get around Kamari, here's the name and address of this business in the local language
reviews Clear all Start your review of Irinis Taverna Click to rate
Helpful? Thank kawidd Report Dushi-NY
248 helpful votes “Beachside Table”
Our group of five stopped here for lunch after our guide recommended the restaurant mainly because it has been in operation since 1965. We chose a table overlooking the beach.
Mama Irinis waves at people as they walk past. The prices appear reasonable and the menu had many items to choose from. We selected spanikopita, two moussaka in clay pots,...
More Helpful? Thank Dushi-NY Report Christine and M... D
2 helpful votes “Nice Place to Be When At the Beach”
We rented our sand beds on the beach in front of Irini's Taverna. We heard that the tavern was also very good, so we had lunch there. As usual, our group of nine people chose a lot of starters. The octopus was excellent, as were the sardines. Actually, all of the food was very good and well-priced. The staff were...
More Helpful? Thank Christine and M... D Report Ian K
Level Contributor 5 reviews 2 helpful votes “Eating”
Great restaurant, good food and service, always so welcoming.
This is well worth a visit when in Naxos.
Helpful? Thank Ian K Report mariepar
As good as any 4* hotel, clean, friendly, helpful staff, good food, quiet location as on the end of the beach in Kalamari. Irinni herself a great tourist attraction.
Helpful? Thank mariepar Report Sha2194
We had amazing food, with a view to match. The restaurant was right at the end of the beach so it was peaceful and tranquil, just like how we'd like. We came here as it was strongly recommended by our hotel owner and definitely had no regrets! Although we had to wait quite a while and customers who came after...
More Helpful? Thank Sha2194 Report Ivana K
Me and my housband ate traditional Greek food here and it was excellent. We also ordered Greek dessert which was very sweet and good. Staff is very friendly. Two main dishes, two desserts and beverage costed about 40 euros.
Helpful? Thank Ivana K Report Brdparis
9 helpful votes “Pleasant lunch on terrasse”
Enjoyed greek salad, gyros and grilled fish on the terrasse with pleasant local white wine after hike to Ancient Thera. A welcomed recharge after the efforts.
Helpful? Thank Brdparis Report Josie B
Lovely night. Amazing food watching the moon set in. Great service and a pudding on the house. Well worth the walk down to the end. it is definitely a little gem.
Helpful? Thank Josie B Report PaulineKev
16 helpful votes “A lovely place to eat and watch the moon rise”
This taverna is the last or the first in kamari. Its at the end of the beach next to the rock where the boats go to Perissa.
It is a lovely setting, we have had several meals here over the years. We have watched the moon rise and shimmer over the sea whilst enjoying a very good meal at very...
More Helpful? Thank PaulineKev Report Previous
Perissa, Santorini All restaurants in Kamari (115)
Posting guidelines Get notified about new answers to your questions. Ask Typical questions asked: Do you have gluten-free options? Is there a dress code? Do you allow dogs on the outdoor patio? Near Irinis Taverna Top-rated Attractions Nearby 1,482 Reviews Ancient Thera

value: Tripadvisor, Inc. is an American online travel company that operates a website and mobile app with user-generated content and a comparison shopping website.


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Women | 家姐 Grace
So recently we took a holiday without Naomi! I’m such a worrier, so leading up to it, it was completely nerve-wracking!! But we had a fun time and I’m sure Naomi did too. Hope this posts helps you if you’re thinking about it too. So my twin sister who lives in the States was due […]
Posted in Home, Life, Women	| 1 Comment
As I talked about in my last post, we recently got back from Korea where I traveled while in my 2nd trimester. Here is my personal perspective as a pregnant person of some of the things to do in Korea and hopefully some helpful tips on making your trip as comfortable as possible! Lotte World […]
Posted in Life, Women	| Tagged busan, korea, pregnancy, travel	| 1 Comment
October 24, 2013 by gracelung
So we just got back from South Korea and had an antenatal appointment – things are all good and clear! I thought I might write up what its like travelling whilst pregnant for those who are considering it. My GP and midwife gave me the all clear, and I was very low risk, so we […]
Posted in Life, Women	| Tagged korea, kuala lumpur, pregnancy, travel	| 6 Comments


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Joella Jordal Sympathy Flowers - Montgomery, IL | Legacy.com
Joella Jordal
Express your condolences by sending funeral flowers in remembrance of Joella Jordal. All arrangements are locally delivered to Dieterle Memorial Home by a local Montgomery, IL florist. Celebrate the legacy of Joella Jordal and comfort those who have lost a loved one.

value: In law, a legacy is something held and transferred to someone as their inheritance, as by will and testament. Personal effects, family property, marriage property or collective property gained by will of real property.


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MORPHY RICHARDS 18CM STAINLESS STEEL FOOD COOKER 3 TIER RED STEAMER POTS | eBay
This amount includes seller specified US postage charges as well as applicable international postage, handling, and other fees. This amount is subject to change until you make payment. For additional information, see the Global Shipping Program terms and conditions- opens in a new window or tab.Start of LayerEnd of LayerBack to eBay Home | Bread Crumb LinkHome, Furniture & DIY > Appliances > Small Kitchen Appliances > Cookers & SteamersAdd to Watch listYou have reached your maximum guest watch list limit of 10 items.Please remove some items from your watch list in My eBay if you want to add more.This item has been added to your guest watch list in My eBay.
ZoomEnlargeMouse here to zoom inHave one to sell?Sell it yourselfMORPHY RICHARDS 18CM STAINLESS STEEL FOOD COOKER 3 TIER RED STEAMER POTSItem condition:NewQuantity:More than 10 availablePlease enter a quantity of $quantity$ or less Please enter a quantity of 1Purchases are limited to $quantity$ per buyer Please enter a quantity of $quantity$ or less Please enter a lower numberPlease enter quantity of 1 or morePrice:GBP 39.95Approximately S$ 78.73Buy It NowBuy It NowBuy It NowAdd to Watch listStart of panelAdd to Watch listAdd to Wish listSign in for more listsEnd of panelAdd to a new listPlease enter a valid name(Separate multiple list names with a comma.)CancelStart of LayerEnd of LayerPostage: Read item description or contact seller for details. See more services See postage discounts Start of LayerEnd of Layer | See all postage detailsEstimated delivery time varies for items dispatched from an international location. Import charges:To be provided at checkoutThis amount includes applicable customs duties, taxes, brokerage and other fees. This amount is subject to change until you make payment. For additional information, see the Global Shipping Program terms and conditions- opens in a new window or tab.Start of LayerEnd of LayerPayments: | See payment informationGet PayPal buyer protection for your item when you pay with PayPal | See Termsfor Paypal Buyer Protection Program- opens in a new window or tabReturns:Returns accepted | Read return policy detailsCountry:Show all availableFranceGermanyIrelandUnited KingdomPostal code:Quantity:(available quantity 96)Service and other details:ServiceEstimated delivery*PriceParcelforce 485-8 working daysFreeOther 24 Hour CouriervariesGBP 6.99Royal Mail Airmail (Small Packets)Between 6 - 8 business daysGBP 13.50*The estimated delivery time is based on the seller's handling time, the postage service selected, and the payment method selected. Sellers are not responsible for postage service transit times. Transit times may vary, particularly during peak periods.Start of LayerEnd of LayerA reserve price is the minimum price the seller will accept. This price is hidden from bidders. To win, a bidder must have the highest bid and have met or exceeded the reserve price.Start of LayerEnd of LayerItems posting internationally may be subject to customs processing depending on the item's declared value.Sellers set the item's declared value and must comply with customs declaration laws.Buyers may be subject to additional charges for customs clearance.Visit eBay's page on international trade- opens in a new window or tab.Start of LayerEnd of LayerInternational Postage - items may be subject to customs processing depending on the item's declared value.Sellers set the item's declared value and must comply with customs declaration laws.As the buyer, you should be aware of possible: - delays from customs inspection. - import duties and taxes which buyers must pay.- brokerage fees payable at the point of delivery.Your country's customs office can offer more details, or visit eBay's page on international trade- opens in a new window or tab.Start of LayerEnd of Layer Seller infoMember id 5stardeals-uk ( Feedback Score Of 94756) 99.8% Positive feedbackAsk a questionSave this sellerSee other items from this sellerVisit store: 5stardeals-uk97Registered as a Business SellerOther item infoItem number:130630767492Item location:Glasgow, United KingdomPost to:Worldwide History:25 soldPrint this item - opens in a new window or tab|Report item
DescriptionPostage and paymentsShare this itemSeller assumes all responsibility for this listing.Last updated on Jun 07, 2013 21:44:50 SGT View all revisionsItem specificsCondition: New: A brand-new, unused, unopened and undamaged item in original retail packaging (where packaging is applicable). If the item comes direct from a manufacturer, it may be delivered in non-retail packaging, such as a plain or unprinted box or plastic bag. See the seller's listing for full details. See all condition definitions- opens in a new window or tab... Read moreabout the conditionBrand: Morphy Richards
MORPHY RICHARDS 18 CM STAINLESS STEEL FOOD COOKER 3 TIER RED STEAMER POTS Item Condition:Brand NEW
The Morphy Richards 18cm 3 Tier Steamer has a 0.5mm stainless steel body, heat proof exterior coating on base pan and a brushed stainless steel finish on the two steaming baskets. The base is 4mm Alu-thermo core with a Morphy Richards base stamp and is suitable for all hob types including induction. The six stainless steel handles are riveted for extra strength, the lid has 5mm tempered glass with steam vent together with a satin stainless steel with Accents design knob. First tier stainless steel body with heat .
- Proof exterior coating.
- Satin finish inner with capacity markings.
- Twin riveted stainless steel handles on all tiers.
- 4mm Aluthermocore base suitable for all hob types.
- Including induction.
- 18cm metalic red with brushed stainless steel 3 Tier Steamer.
- 18cm base can be used with the lid as a casserole / stockpot.
- Encapsulated base suitable for all heat sources.
- Temppered vented glass lis enabeling you to watch the cooking process.
- Morphy Richards branded with a 10 year guarantee.
Base pan is 18cm Stainless Steel Body with Translucent colour exterior satin finish interior with capacity markings 4mm encapsulated base suitable for all heat sourses including induction two polished stainless steel riveted handles per tier tempered glass lid with active steam vent and Accents designer loop, 10 year guarantee. 2 Stainless Steel Steaming Baskets with satin finish.
Home | About Us | Deals | Ebay Store | Contact Us | What's New | eBay Store Design Business Seller InformationSash Time LimitedSash Time LimitedUnit 16 - Block 8 Spiersbridge TerraceThornliebankglasgowGlasgow (City of)g46 8JHUnited KingdomPhone: 0141|6389652Email: 5stardealsuk@gmail.comTrade Registration Number: 915998763Goods and Services Tax Number: UK 915998763Return policyReturn policy detailsWe offer a 14 day money back guarantee. If for any reason you are not satisfied with your goods, we will refund the price of the goods provided that they are returned unused and in original condition, together with the original packaging (if applicable), within 14 days of the date of the invoice, a copy of which must be returned with the goods. You must take reasonable care of the item/s and must not open them. You will be responsible for the shipping costs both to and from your address. We cannot accept responsibility for returned items damaged or lost in the post so advise you take out postal insurance. To cancel your order you must advise us by email or in writing via ebay messaging system. Postal address: Unit 16 Block 8 Spiers Bridge Terrace Thornliebank Glasgow G46 8JH.Seller assumes all responsibility for this listing.Postage and handlingItem location: Glasgow, United KingdomPosting to: Worldwide Quantity:Change country:Show all availableFranceGermanyIrelandUnited KingdomPostal code: Postage and handlingEach additional itemToServiceEstimated delivery*Free postageFreeUnited Kingdom Parcelforce 485-8 working daysafter seller receives cleared payment - opens in a new window or tabGBP 6.99GBP 2.99United Kingdom Other 24 Hour CourierVariesSeller posts within 1 day after receiving cleared payment - opens in a new window or tab. GBP 13.50GBP 10.00Ireland, France, Germany Royal Mail Airmail (Small Packets)Between 6 - 8 business days Seller posts within 1 day after receiving cleared payment - opens in a new window or tab. Will post to Worldwide. Contact the seller - opens in a new window or tab for additional postage costs and services.*The estimated delivery time - opens in a new window or tab is based on the seller's handling time, the postage service selected, and when the seller receives cleared payment - opens in a new window or tab. Sellers are not responsible for postage service transit times. Transit times may vary, particularly during peak periods.Domestic handling timeWill usually post within 1 business day of receiving cleared payment- opens in a new window or tab.Payment detailsPayment methodBuyer protection on eBayGet PayPal buyer protection for your item when you pay with PayPal | See Termsfor Paypal Buyer Protection Program- opens in a new window or tabYou can add ##n## more item.You can add ##n## more items.You’re the first person to watch this item. Don’t let it get away!people are watching this item. Place a bid and beat them to buy this item!##n## item can still be added to your watch list.##n## items can still be added to your watch list.person is watching this item. Place a bid and improve your chances to buy this item.(##i## item)(##i## items)

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91 Shunpike Rd, Sheffield, MA 01257 | Trulia
91 Shunpike Rd
for 91 Shunpike Rd
> 91 Shunpike Rd
This is a Single-Family Home located at 91 Shunpike Road, Sheffield, MA. 91 Shunpike Rd has 2 beds, 1 ½ bath, and approximately 1,300 square feet. The property has a lot size of 1 and was built in 1998. 91 Shunpike Rd is in the 01257 ZIP code in Sheffield, MA. The average list price for ZIP code 01257 is $538,095.
for 91 Shunpike Rd Official property, sales, and tax information from county (public) records as of 03/2016:
91 Shunpike Road, Sheffield MA
This question is about this property: http://www.trulia.com/homes/Massachusetts/Sheffield/sold/533792-91-Shunpike-Rd-Sheffield-MA-01257
for 91 Shunpike Rd Year
for 91 Shunpike Rd Date
in 01257 Listing price for 91 Shunpike Rd
This is a Single-Family Home located at 91 Shunpike Rd, Sheffield MA, 01257. 91 Shunpike Rd has has 2 beds, 1 ½ bath, and approximately 1,300 square feet. The property has a lot size of 2.96 acres and was built in 1998. 91 Shunpike Rd is in Sheffield and in ZIP Code 01257. Communities near 91 Shunpike Road, Sheffield, MA
160624633a85867841de3e121971199259e18a

value: Trulia is an American online real estate marketplace which is a subsidiary of Zillow. It facilitates buyers and renters to find homes and neighborhoods across the United States through recommendations, local insights, and map overlays that offer details on a commute, reported crime, schools, churches and nearby businesses.Founded in 2005, Trulia is based in San Francisco, and owned and operated by Zillow Group, Inc.


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madigirl: 2012
It's already December and I have some new products that will make it easy for you to document the special December days. First the 4x6" Journaling cards, You can print them and then hand journal on them, or scrap them digitally and then print them for your photobook, or ofcourse just use them in your digital projects.
The wordstrips are prefect for adding some personal touches to the journaling cards, the cards can also be used as photo cards
The photo templates are also in 4x6" size. Perfect for making collages in your photobooks. With all the pictures we take during the december holidays, it's a great way to showcase them all
And finally my latest typography wordart set, all made to match any december/holiday project.
All items are available at my Oscraps store individually, but I also made a bundle. Get all the products at once for a special price
And here's some inspiration, I digitally scrapped 2 journaling/photocards and printed them and inserted them into a regular 4x6 photo album.
and I did the same with the photo templates,
and here are some digital december daily cards, shown in 1 layout
The full size cards can be seen here at Flickr
or in my design gallery at Oscraps
Hi everyone! Hope you're doing fine! At Oscraps we decided to celebrate Thanks giving with giving back! Please enjoy our Black Friday & Cyber Monday Sales! Please go here to read all about it:http://ozone.oscraps.com/forum/showthread.php?t=24674
For Black Friday we got two categories with seleceted products on a huge discount for a limited time only! Click here to go to the BARGAIN BIN or here to go to the OLDIES but GOODIES, want to find all my products that are on sale right now? go to my PROMOTIONS category. NEW in my store: Music Sheet Papers
http://www.oscraps.com/shop/product.php?productid=32281 And that's not all!
Inspiration Passion for Paper
Look what my CT members made with my latest products, in the Passion for Paper series.
First this page by Emmy, it was shown on the Gallery Standouts blog:
And lots of other great pages.
I just love the variety of layouts!
Clean, clustered and artsy, these products can be used in all sorts of layouts!
And a page by Renan, you may have seen it at the Gallery Standouts!
Hi everyone and a happy Digital Scrapbooking Day!
Want a chance to win a product of your choice from my store?!? Today and TODAY ONLY is your lucky day!
go here to play:
http://ozone.oscraps.com/forum/showthread.php?t=24515
Hi everyone and a happy Digital Scrapbooking Day!! please enjoy a 40% discount on my entire store
http://www.oscraps.com/shop/home.php?cat=379
This also includes my new releases. See Below:
http://www.oscraps.com/shop/product.php?productid=32076&cat=289&page=1
http://www.oscraps.com/shop/product.php?productid=32072&cat=289&page=1
http://www.oscraps.com/shop/product.php?productid=32074&cat=289&page=1
http://www.oscraps.com/shop/product.php?productid=32070&cat=289&page=1
http://www.oscraps.com/shop/product.php?productid=32071&cat=289&page=1
http://www.oscraps.com/shop/product.php?productid=32073&cat=289&page=1
http://www.oscraps.com/shop/product.php?productid=32075&cat=289&page=1
And that's not it! Join us at Oscraps for Sales, Challenges and more
This year we've got a scavenger hunt. Read all about it here. There
are 20 freebies for you to find in the store!
And here's a preview of my part..so go hunting!!
Product Highlight: Halloween
Hi everyone! and a Happy Halloween!! Make sure you get lots of pictures and if you need something to scrap them with, check my products below (will be on DSD sale nov. 2nd):
http://www.oscraps.com/shop/product.php?productid=31428&cat=379&page=1
http://www.oscraps.com/shop/product.php?productid=26015&cat=379&page=3
http://www.oscraps.com/shop/product.php?productid=28638&cat=379&page=2
http://www.oscraps.com/shop/product.php?productid=28661&cat=379&page=2
http://www.oscraps.com/shop/product.php?productid=26016&cat=571&page=1
http://www.oscraps.com/shop/product.php?productid=28648&cat=379&page=2
And here are some layouts using Zen & the Art of: All Hallows Eve
Are you a fan of my designs? and want to make sure you don't miss a thing? Like my designs on Facebook. Go here>> http://www.facebook.com/#!/mayadegrootdesigns
Unfortunately, Facebook has recently changed their posting policies on fan pages, including limited exposure. This means that for an average post only a small percentage of the fans are able to see my status updates, news and sales announcements! To make sure you get to see my posts, please go to the Maya de Groot designs Fanpage, and hover over the Like button and select "Show in Newsfeed". THANK YOU!!
MSA's FEATURED PRESENTATION PASSES
I'm one of the MSA Home is Where the Art is featured designers in 2013!! Woot! MSA has a great deal for you. You can read it all here (copied from MSA) ------------------------------------------------------------------
A new year is right around the corner and with it, a whole new set of Featured Designers... and their gorgeous kits! You will have the opportunity to download these kits with your FEATURED PRESENTATION PASS... which will go on sale here at MSA on November 1st for just $5!!Here's how it works....From November 1st, 2012 - January 31st, 2013 you will be able to purchase your FEATURED PRESENTATION PASS for just $5 and will be able to download all 12 Featured Designer's kit on a monthly basis. To purchase the pass go to your User CP at the top left of the forum navigation bar, scroll down to Misc. and select "Paid Subscriptions".... you will see the FPP option on NOV. 1st.On February 1st, however, the price of the FEATURED PRESENTATION PASS will change and the January kit will no longer be available. You may purchase the FEATURED PRESENTATION PASS at any time during the 2013 year but will do so at the current price and will only receive the current month's kit & remaining Featured Designer's kits. Once a month is gone, so is the kit.... so get it all while it's on sale!Just look at this fabulous lineup for 2013... http://www.myscrapbookart.com/forums/showthread.php?t=16307


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Paper Economy - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog: February 2007
Today, the U.S. Census Department released its monthly “New Residential Home Sales” report for January showing the third worst monthly drop-off in new home sales since the housing recession began.This is particularly important as it has been suggested recently, most notably by Bob Toll, CEO of Toll Brother, that the new home market was finding a bottom.Clearly though, this is not quite the case as every region showed a substantial decline to seasonally adjusted home sales from December of 2006.Furthermore, nearly every region (save a small increase in the Midwest region) showed declines on a year-over-year basis with the West registering a frightening 50.4% fall-off.Interestingly, even with the unseasonably warm weather that clearly had an effect on existing home sales, the Northeast fell back into the negative column (as I had noted last month, the December figure was revised down this month) for new home sales plunging 18.7% from December and declining 1.6% below the January 2006 results.But easily the most notable decline comes from the West region where sales sunk 37.4% from December putting that region 50.4% below the results of January 2006.So, we are now seeing significant declines on a year-over-year basis to the first month in 2006 where new home sales stared to show weakness.This should not be understated as it is clearly showing continued and even accelerating weakness to new home sales.Look at the following summary of today’s report:NationalThe median price for a new home was down 2.0% as compared to January 2006.New home sales were down 20.1% as compared to January 2006.The inventory of new homes for sale increased 2.7% as compared to January 2006.The number of months’ supply of the new homes has increased 28.3% as compared to January 2006.RegionalIn the Northeast, new home sales were down 1.6% as compared to January 2006.In the West, new home sales were down 50.4% as compared to January 2006.In the South, new home sales were down 11.2% as compared to January 2006.In the Midwest, new home sales were up 0.6% as compared to January 2006.housing+bubble housing bubble realtor real+estate NAR home+sales economy recession interest+rates bernanke greenspanCopyright © 2007PaperMoney Blog - www.paperdinero.com All Rights ReservedDisclaimer
Today, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released their second installment of the Q4 2006 GDP report showing a series of significant downward revisions to the preliminary estimates released last month.Remember that last months preliminary report showed GDP growing at an annualized rate of 3.5% giving many Wall Street bulls optimism that the 2.0% growth seen in Q3 2006 could have represented a temporary anomaly.But today’s release revises down the preliminary estimate 1.3% to an annualized rate of 2.2% with significant revisions to, amongst other things, non-durable goods and net imports (as I had suggested last month might occur) as well as durable goods.Additionally, residential investment is showing a continued and dramatic fall-off registering a decline of 19.1% shaving 1.16% from overall GDP.Furthermore, the decline to non-residential investment that first showed up in last months report as a meager 0.4% was today revised to a far more substantial decline of 2.4%.Taken together, the declines to both residential and non-residential fixed investment are now depressing GDP by a stunning 1.43%.As with last months estimate, today’s release is still showing unusually large increases to non-durable goods, net exports of services, and defense spending as well as an unusually large decrease to net imports, all working to boost overall GDP figure.Be on the lookout for these values to be revised in next months final Q4 2006 GDP report possibly depressing GDP further still.The following chart shows real residential fixed investment and nonresidential fixed investment versus overall GDP since Q1 2003 (click for larger version).housing+bubble housing bubble realtor national+association+of+realtors NAR lereah economy recession interest+rates mortgage loan ARM lenders bernenke greenspanCopyright © 2007PaperMoney Blog - www.paperdinero.com All Rights ReservedDisclaimer
lenders Bernanke,
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To say that today is a critical day on Wall Street, and for the whole US economy for that matter, would be a gross understatement.Today is one of the most critical trading days in decades. Will steady hands prevail or shirk back in order to avoid a falling knife?Will all the unfettered bullish optimism seen in recent months finally break in the face of some reasonable skepticism about our economy’s outlook?I guess we will just have to wait until 9:30 AM EST to find out for sure.But was Tuesday’s sell off really a reaction to an unexpected dip in China's markets or is there a bigger issue?Could we be experiencing a time in which bullish optimism runs white hot while actual confidence is, in fact, very low?After all, there have been many recent signals indicating that our economy is not only slowing but may have grown on some fairly shaky ground.The final Q3 2006 GDP came in well under the expectations, weighed down by a historic decline to residential investment.The nation's housing market has been in recession for a full year (in some areas even longer) and has shown unprecedented and widespread declines to both home sales and prices, even in the face of unusually low interest rates and a solid job market.Durable goods orders have been dropping off for several months, further indicating that consumers may be pulling back a bit as a result of loss of real and perceived housing wealth.The sub-prime melt-down (soon to be the prime-meltdown) is well underway, wreaking havoc across lending institutions of all shapes and sizes providing some substantial evidence that the easy lending heyday of the past will end with a final, sloppy hangover.The dollar is weak; the yield curve inverted; savings rate negative; our lifestyle is as interest rate sensitive as it has ever been in history.To top it all off, Greenspan has mentioned the “R” word. Egad!Tomorrow will no doubt make for great dramatic effect on CNBC and Wall Street as both the New Home Sales report and the second installment of the Q4 2006 GDP report are released.Only time will tell if we are at a turning-point but given the circumstances, you've got to ask yourself one question: “Do I feel lucky?”Well, do you, punk?housing+bubble house housing bubble realtor home+builders NAR realtors slowdown recession economy interest+rates Greenspan BernankeCopyright © 2007PaperMoney Blog - www.paperdinero.com All Rights ReservedDisclaimer
The headlines said it all… “Bay State Home Sales Rebound in January”, “State’s Home Sales Rebound”, “Mass Housing Market Bouncing Back”.Or, maybe MAR President Doug Azarian summed it up with the following guarded optimism:“We are encouraged about the way January has started off… As sellers continue to price their homes correctly, we should begin to see demand pick up, inventories go down, and the market becoming more balanced.Obviously, looking at the numbers there is a significant increase to single family home sales this January versus the results of January 2006.Of course we could debate about the MARs numbers and The Warren Groups numbers but for sake of simplicity let’s just consider the MAR numbers.First, keep in mind, Boston as well as the whole of the Northeast has experienced exceptionally mild weather in January allowing for many more days of buying activity than would have otherwise occurred.But even given the mild weather, the 2744 units sold are still under the January 2002 and 2003 results as well as 7.5% below the 2005 results.Additionally, prices have been falling fairly regularly since June 2005 and again dropped 2.1% in January.So, we are continuing to see a decline, both sales and prices are significantly below the peak values and soon the spring inventory will rejuvenate competition putting further pressure on prices.As in months past, be on the lookout for the inflation adjusted charts produced by BostonBubble.com for an even more accurate "real" view of the current market trend.Unfortunately, MAR seems to have trimmed their reporting of inventory and days on the market so, for now, we will have to live with the following key statistics for January 2006:Single Family Sales increased 12.6% as compared to January 2006Single Family Median Price declined 2.4% as compared to January 2006Condo Sales increased 5.3% as compared to January 2006Condo Median Price declined 0.7% as compared to January 2006housing+bubble realtor massachusetts MAR NAR association+of+realtors Doug+Azarian economy housing recession home+sales median+price real+estate declineCopyright © 2007PaperMoney Blog - www.paperdinero.com All Rights ReservedDisclaimer
Today, the National Association of Realtors released its monthly “Existing Home Sales” report for January along with some guarded optimism.As David Lereah puts it:“Although we’re expecting existing-home sales to gradually rise this year, and buyers are responding to the price correction, some unusually warm weather helped boost sales in January”“We shouldn’t be surprised to see a near-term sales dip, but that will be followed by a continuing recovery in home sales.”Looking at the data it does appear that sales in the Northeast have been fairly strong with some solid increases on a year-over-year basis to both single family homes and condos but given that this winter season has been exceptionally mild, that result is not very surprising.Another key factor in the Northeast regions up-tick in sales seems to be some significant downward price movement.In fact, for single family homes, prices have declined year-over-year in every region especially the West.It will be interesting to see if the mild weather continues to help prop up sales or if it will provide even more time for inventory to swell thus providing a more competitive marketplace.Below is a chart consolidating all the year-over-year changes reported by NAR in their January 2007 report.Particularly notable are the following:Single family home prices were down in ever region.Excluding the Northeast region, sales of both single family and condos were down in every region.Inventory and Months Supply show double digit increases on a year-over-year basis.housing+bubble realtor national+association+of+realtors housing bubble decline existing+home home+sales sales median median+home+price David+Lereah NAR mortgage interest+rate economy recessionCopyright © 2007PaperMoney Blog - www.paperdinero.com All Rights ReservedDisclaimer
Its days like this that you get the feeling that paying too much attention to the “Maestros” terse and infrequent comments may be a bit naïve.Greenspan spills little dribs and drabs of wisdom generally separated by months of silence and to a certain extent it appears that the Wall Street still yearns for every word.But today Greenspan is no longer the Federal Reserve Chairman and many of his comments originate from speaking engagements that range from celebratory dinners to business conferences.That being said, today addressing the “VeryGC Global Business Insights” conference in Hong Kong, Greenspan suggested that the US might slip into recession as early as the end of 2007.Here are some of his quotes made during his address:“When you get this far away from a recession, invariably forces build up for the next recession, and indeed we are beginning to see that sign,”“For example in the U.S., profit margins . . . have begun to stabilize, which is an early sign we are in the later stages of a cycle.”“While, yes, it is possible we can get a recession in the latter months of 2007, most forecasters are not making that judgment and indeed are projecting forward into 2008…”“The American budget deficit is clearly a very significant concern for all of us that are trying to evaluate both the American economy's immediate future and that of the rest of the world”“We are now well into the contraction period and so far we have not had any major, significant spillover effects on the American economy from the contraction in housing,”housing+bubble house housing bubble realtor home+builders NAR realtors slowdown recession economy interest+rates Greenspan BernankeCopyright © 2007PaperMoney Blog - www.paperdinero.com All Rights ReservedDisclaimer
Yesterday’s conference call with Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) CEO Robert Toll elaborated a bit more on the details published in their Q1 release.Firstly, it appears that Bob Toll is already a bit disappointed about the market activity he has seen thus far this year, especially with respect to the “bump up” in sales normally seen during and just after Presidents day weekend.Additionally, Toll seems to be following the lead of Ara Hovnanian who recently pointed out the builder cancellation rates should begin to come down as an inherent result of making fresh agreements.According to Toll, 55% of Q1 2007 cancellations were made to contracts entered into from one year to over one and a half years ago when the market was peaking.The assumption is that now that buyers know that the market has peaked, the agreements they enter into will be less likely to result in a cancellation.It’s interesting though to hear Toll admit that many of the buyers they were selling to during the run-up were in fact actually “investors” but I don’t buy his asserting that they didn’t know this was so until closing.Toll also backed away and strongly constrained his strangely contrived analogy (published in the Q1 release) of the supposed recent health of the New York City market as possibly being an indicator of the health of the nations housing market.The entire conference call can be listened to here.The following is a series of interesting questions and responses from yesterday’s conference call:When asked by Steven Kim of Citigroup about the outlook for cancellation rates Toll responded:"About the only indication that I can give you Steven is that we had a total of 55% of out 'can' rates [in Q1 2007] from agreements that are more than a year old... 173 that were from one year to one and a half years and 53 from agreements that were more than one and a half years old so that, presumably, as we catch up with production and have shaken out those agreements that were entered into during the absolute top of the cycle or near there too, the 'can' rates should go down... of course, read your prospectus carefully, you know, no representation is made here, but that’s just and observation that I think will not only to Toll but to most. I think basically what happened was we all were fooled by the great number of investors that we weren’t selling to that showed up when it came time to close and who walked instead of closing."When asked by Dave Golberg from UBS about a shift in the tone of today's quarterly release as compared to the pre-conference release two weeks ago Toll responded:"I would say we are a little more disappointed than we were two weeks ago because the top selling weeks of the year for the new home business are the weekend that runs into Presidents day week and then following weekend which we have coming and for presidents day weekend, we had good sales but we didn’t have anywhere near the bump up that we normally see... so that’s disappointing."When asked about the analogy Bob Toll made in the Q1 release between the health of the New York City market and the health of the overall market Toll replied:"What I implied in the monologue [and the Q1 release] is that here was a market that admittedly had not gone down to the extent that the average markets have.. other average markets have in the United States, but that did go soft to some extent in the second half of 2006 that now is roaring back... and by implication what I am saying is that you may find that traditional luxury markets come back faster than is expected though I don’t mean to imply at all that it will be as rapid as the New York market's recovery was from it's decline that was minimal. But I’m making a statement that pent-up demand is such that when confidence returns I think it will return possibly with a vengeance."housing+bubble house housing bubble realtor home+builders Toll+Brothers NAR realtors TOL slowdown recession economy interest+rates mortgage ARM+loan luxury Greenspan Bernanke Robert+Toll Bob+TollCopyright © 2007PaperMoney Blog - www.paperdinero.com All Rights ReservedDisclaimer
It wasn’t that long ago that Toll Brothers (NYSE:TOL) CEO Robert Toll was talking of “dancing on the bottom” and “A-rated” California markets in an attempt to project a level of optimism that was more fiction than fact.On December 5th 2006 Toll suggested:“Fifteen months into the current slowdown, we may be seeing a floor in some markets where deposits and traffic, although erratic from week to week… right now is a great time to buy a new luxury home.”Well, today brings the Q1 2007 results for Toll Brothers (and as a proxy for the rest of the new construction market) and the outcome is certainly nothing to dance about.Particularly shocking was that in their FYE 2006 report, Toll Brothers had budgeted $60 million for all of 2007’s pre-tax land write-downs and in Q1 2007 alone they have taken $96.9 million.Toll is now projects $60 million in land write-downs for the remainder of 2007.Additionally, in Q1 2007 net income plunged 66.8% as compared to Q1 2006 with total revenue declining 18.7%.In today’s release Bob Toll now suggests:“There are too many soft markets at this stage of the selling season to call a general upturn in the new home market. Demand varies greatly from week to week in individual markets.”Here are some of the interesting data points from today’s release:First Quarter ResultsNet income was $54.3 million down 66.8% compared to Q1 2006.Pre-tax land write-downs totaled $96.9 million up 98.8% compared to Q1 2006.Earnings per share declined 66.3% as compared to Q1 2006.Total revenues were $1.09 billion down 18.7% compared to Q1 2006.Net signed contracts were $748.7 million down 34.3% compared to Q1 2006.Quarter end backlog was $4.15 billion down 30.2% compared to Q1 2006.Signed contracts was 1027 down 33.4% compared to Q1 2006.Current 2007 ProjectionsDeliver 6000 – 7000 homes (prior estimate 6300 – 7300).Net income of $240 - $305 million (prior estimate $260 - $340 million).Additional land write-downs of $60 million.housing+bubble house housing bubble realtor home+builders Toll+Brothers NAR realtors TOL slowdown recession economy interest+rates mortgage ARM+loan luxury Greenspan Bernanke Robert+Toll Bob+TollCopyright © 2007PaperMoney Blog - www.paperdinero.com All Rights ReservedDisclaimer
Today brings the following bubbly video clips to BNN:1. Habib versus Roubini on the Mortgage MeltdownBarry Habib does his best to keep up appearances in the face of the now obvious collapse of the nations housing and home lending markets.Habib is the same “expert” that was continuing to repeat the “no housing bubble” sentiment even as late as September of 2006.Amazingly, Habib suggests that consumers who are in trouble may benefit from what he calls “Two One Buy-downs” which apparently is another contrived interest only loan product that attempts to mitigate the real cost of owning a ridiculously overpriced home.Nouriel Roubini, as usual, does an expert job at restating the obvious fact that both sub-prim AND prime lending is on shaky ground and that the housing recession is not over but just beginning to unwind.2. All Eyes on BiesFederal Reserve Governor Susan Bies suggested yesterday that a bottom may not have been reached in housing as “hidden inventory”, homes that had been taken off the market without sale, come flowing back on as the market shows signs of stabilization.“There’s a lot of vacant housing out there right now. In fact, the percentage of homes where nobody is living in them is at a record level. So the potential for inventory correction is still very high.” said Bies.Bies goes on to express surprise that so many 2006 sub-prime mortgages went bad so quickly. “You normally see that delinquencies and defaults and foreclosures tend to peak about two years after somebody has taken out a mortgage… these are going delinquent in just a few months.”3. Sam Zell on “Mickey Mouse” FinancingAn excellent interview with Sam Zell about the state of housing, lending and the prospects for the rental market going forward.Zell goes on at length about loose lending practices or what he calls “Mickey Mouse” financing as well as the “Rent - Buy” judgment.Consequently, Zell thinks we will see many more defaults and a significant increase in renting.4. Peter Schiff, Ben Stein on the Merry-Go-Round!A whimsical merry-go-round of bulls and bears on the outlook for housing in 2007.Mike Norman of “BizRadio” seems delusional as he fires off at Schiff “What artificial lending standard are you talking about! We have a tiny default rate in the single digits”.Apparently Mike doesn’t understand the significance of the excessively loose lending practices that the Federal Reserve is now in the process of cracking down on.Schiff does and excellent job of reiterating the fact that the problems in lending are not limited to the sub-prime market but are, in fact, seriously out of whack in the prime market as well.The clip ends with Mike Norman and Tom Adkins of REMAX chuckling ridiculously over Schiff’s closing words.housing+bubble housing bubble real+estate realtor sam+zell barry+habib susan+bies nouriel+roubini peter+schiff economy recession bernanke greenspan home+builders ARM+loan lenders home+loanCopyright © 2007PaperMoney Blog - www.paperdinero.com All Rights ReservedDisclaimer
Reported as showing the slowest pace of housing starts in more than nine years, yesterday’s “New Residential Construction” report seemed to have shaken Wall Streets confidence that the housing decline is in the process of stabilizing.That is, until bullish optimists ran with the notion that this report signaled a good sign for housing as it indicated that home builders were working through inventories and reducing production.Builders are certainly reducing production and as a consequence, divesting themselves of land options at a much more significant pace than many had expected but the pure and simple fact is that demand has fallen significantly over the past year.There is still a glut of vacant new construction homes in the nation, by some estimates twice as many as is seen on average.This leaves homebuilders in the predicament of having to both compete with “investors” to move their existing backlog of homes while continually re-aligning their production to stay on track with today’s reduced demand.January’s report again shows the momentous drop-off in demand for new construction homes on a year-over-year basis in which every region registered high double-digit declines to both permits and starts.Except for the Northeast, every other region showed over 30% declines to both permits and starts with the Northeast trailing with 20% declines.The next few new construction reports should be very telling in that the February-March 2006 time frame was where permits and starts really started to show weakness.Further significant declines from here on out would unequivocally indicate that the housing market has not yet stabilized.Here are the statistics outlined in yesterday’s report:Housing PermitsNationallySingle family housing permits down 4.0% from December, down 32.6% as compared to January 2006.RegionallyFor the Northeast, single family housing permits up 6.3% from December, down 21.5% as compared to January 2006.For the West, single family housing permits up 2.2% from December, down 34.7% as compared to January 2006.For the Midwest, single family housing permits up 3.5% from December, down 34.7% as compared to January 2006.For the South, single family housing permits down 10.3% from December, down 32.7% compared to January 2006.Housing StartsNationallySingle family housing starts down 11.2% from December, down 38.9% as compared to January 2006.RegionallyFor the Northeast, single family housing starts up 19.3% from December, down 25.7% as compared to January 2006.For the West, single family housing starts down 33.5% from December, down 47.8% as compared to January 2006.For the Midwest, single family housing starts went unchanged from December, down 45.5% as compared to January 2006.For the South, single family housing starts down 8.5% from December, down 35.1% as compared to January 2006.Housing CompletionsNationallySingle family housing completions up 0.3% from December, down 7.5% as compared to January 2006.RegionallyFor the Northeast, single family housing completions up 24.6% from December, up 20.5% as compared to January 2006.For the West, single family housing completions down 11.1% from December, down 26.6% as compared to January 2006.For the Midwest, single family housing completions down 6.1% from December, down 24.4% as compared to January 2006.For the South, single family housing completions up 3.7% from December, up 4.9% as compared to January 2006.Keep in mind that this particular report does NOT factor in the cancellations that have been widely reported to be occurring in new construction.housing+bubble real+estate new+construction housing+starts housing realtor permits home+sales cancellations residential decline MarketWatchCopyright © 2007PaperMoney Blog - www.paperdinero.com All Rights ReservedDisclaimer
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) yesterday released the results of homes sales/prices for the fourth quarter of 2006 in a release entitled “Fourth Quarter Metro Home Prices & State Sales Likely Have Hit Bottom”.Within the lengthy release NAR highlights the many instances of quarterly price increases such as Indiana and Arkansas where home sales rose well over 10% compared with the fourth quarter a year earlier.The release goes on to note that 71 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) showed solid price gains as well as recapping the average price increases seen in the last five year period for some of the nations hottest residential real estate markets.As NAR President Pat Vredevoogd Combs puts it “Since the typical owner stays in a home for six years, it’s more useful to look at the five-year comparison for metro area home prices – most of them are seeing strong gains,” she said. The median five-year price gain is 41.8 percent.The release wraps up by detailing the strongest metro areas of each major regional market citing areas from Pittsfield Massachusetts to Rockford Illinois.Overall, the report reads fairly positive, that is, until you delve a little deeper into the data posted at NARs other quarterly metropolitan results page.What NAR left out of the public release was that Q4 2006 showed 40 states with declining single family home sales with 19 declining 15% or more and 7 declining over 20%.The hardest hit states continue to be Nevada (-36.1%) Florida (-30.8%) Arizona (-26.9%) Virginia (-26.2%) Washington DC (-22.2%) California (-21.3%) and Maryland (-20.8%) with New Jersey (-19.9%) and West Virginia (-19.5%) bordering on near 20% declines.Furthermore, 25 states and DC are now experiencing double digit sales declines.As for prices, NAR only examined 149 of the overall 379 MSAs finding that nearly half (73) of the areas had seen price declines.housing+bubble housing bubble realtor real+estate nationa+association+of+realtors NAR recession economy economics bernanke greenspan homebuilder loan ARM+loan toxic+mortgage mortgageCopyright © 2007PaperMoney Blog - www.paperdinero.com All Rights ReservedDisclaimer
Yesterday, Goldman Sachs held its first annual “Housing Conference” which brought together a host of economists, CEO’s and others in an effort to gain some visibility over the fate of the housing market in 2007 and beyond.In addition to an excellent opening macroeconomic overview by Jan Hatzius, Chief US Economist of Goldman Sachs, the conference included lengthy presentations on sub-prime and non-traditional mortgages, credit quality, and homebuilding.The following chart (click for larger version) taken from Hatzius’ opening overview shows the effect of the housing decline on GDP. Note how declines to housing related employment, mortgage equity withdrawal, housing wealth, and residential investment all weighed on GDP shaving off over 1.5% in Q3 and Q4 of 2006 and are projected to subtract 1% for the remainder of 2007.Homebuilders were particularly well represented with Ian McCarthy, CEO of Beazer Homes, Ara K. Hovnanian, CEO of Hovnanian Enterprises Inc., Richard Dugas, CEO of Pulte Homes and Joel Rassman, CFO of Toll Brothers all participating in a panel discussion entitled “Trends in Homebuilding”.Kicking off the panel, moderator Chris Hussey asked the audience members to vote on a series of three questions with the results being made immediately available after the voting.The following questions-results were given:What do you think will happen to home prices in 2007? 52% predict prices will go down 0 – 10%.What do you think will happen to new home orders in 2007? 78% predict orders will go down.What strategy do you think home builders should pursue in 2007? Majority indicated that homebuilders should clear inventory.Richard Dugas and Ara Hovnanian started out the discussion by reiterating a similar point made earlier in the month by Robert Toll by making note of some “encouraging” signs of cancellations abating and increased activity.Ian McCarthy quickly followed up with an interesting quip about allowing the audience members to vote to kick any particular home builder off the panel then indicating that he’s yet to see any encouraging signs with still overwhelmingly high inventory.Quickly, Hovnanian interjected that he did not want his prior statement to indicate too much optimism and that he would be hopeful for even a very slow recovery.When asked about Robert Toll’s interesting “A” rating of the California market in his most recent conference call, Joel Rassman replied “If you looked at the last four weeks, California has shown a remarkable turn around and I think that’s what Bob was indicating”To that Ian McCarthy suggested that although he did not want to criticize Bob Toll, extrapolating the results of a four weeks for a given market would be misleading and that more data is required to make any real claim of a market turn around.When asked about what product trends that had been seen during 2006 Hovnanian replied “I can’t claim to see a trend by market segment..” adding “its really supply and demand at the local level”.McCarthy added “I think affordability is the biggest issue right now… affordability at every price point.”Rassman added “I think it’s different in every market… I’m not sure I could say that there is a product type that’s immune from the slowdown.”When asked about what cold be done to reduce cancellation rates Rassman suggested that deposits were a key method but that given the circumstances in the housing market “we’ve seen people walk from $60K – $70K in deposits.”Hovnanian suggested cancellations for buyers that were less than 30 days into the buying process hasn’t changed measurably but buyers that were in backlog for 6 to 9 months during 2006 dropped out in greater numbers as they witnessed price drops that made their loss of deposit more acceptable.When asked whether the discounting has reached the point at which consumers will be enticed to buy McCarthy quipped “Pass the crystal ball and let me rub it… We are still selling homes. It’s very early in the selling season to say that we have reached the bottom in discounting… I’m not sure we are there today.”Rassman added “As soon as they believe prices are no longer falling, consumers will come back.”The whole conference was originally webcast live but can be listened to in its entirety at the following link.housing+bubble housing bubble realtor home+builder hovnanian toll+brothers rassman pulte home+sales real+estate recession economy bernanke greenspan MLS mortgage ARM+loan lenders loans goldman+sachsCopyright © 2007PaperMoney Blog - www.paperdinero.com All Rights ReservedDisclaimer
For those of you who may have missed yesterday’s grotesque flogging of sub-prime lender New Century Financial (NYSE:NEW), here’s a wrap-up.On Wednesday, NEW announced that it would need to restate earnings for the first three quarters of 2006 in order to “correct errors the company discovered in its application of generally accepted accounting principles”.Apparently, they wrongly calculated the impact of their repurchased loans (loans that immediately go bad at the first payment and get repurchased by the lender) in the following ways:They did not include the expected “discount upon disposition” of the repurchased loans when estimating their allowance for repurchased loans. In this way it appears that they may have exceeded their reserve for expenses related to bad loans.They incorrectly estimated the volume of repurchase claims for the first three quarters of 2006. Again, it appears that they significantly underestimated the number of bad loans they would be repurchasing thus exceeding their reserve for expenses related to bad loans.Properly accounting for these errors will reduce all three previously stated quarters of 2006 as well as postpone the Q4 results which the company has preliminarily stated will show a net loss.The following is a chart showing NEW stock price over the last 12 months (click for larger version) note yesterdays precipitous drop-off… its current price is that little blue nub way down there at the right under $20!!!I was shorting this stock (along with CFC, KBH, TOL, LEND etc.) for all of 2006 but I had decided to take a breather on the ‘puts’ as I was getting a little crazy with some of my ‘bets’ so you can imagine my dismay when I saw the pounding this stock got yesterday.In my opinion, the sub-prime lenders (all home/home-equity lenders for that matter) are all essentially in the same position. They were an enabler for an industry that went absolutely wild during this historic housing run-up and now the chickens have come home to roost.Home lenders, especially the sub-prime lenders, will spend 2007 and beyond digging out of this horrendous ditch, some will survive but many will not.The result for the housing market will be a further decrease in sales activity as tightening of lending practices removes a significant percentage of buyers from the marketplace that would have otherwise been qualified during the run-up era.For a daily view of sub-prime lender news and failures see Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter.housing+bubble housing bubble realtor economy recession new+century+financial lender sub-prime mortgage ARM+loan greenspan bernankeCopyright © 2007PaperMoney Blog - www.paperdinero.com All Rights ReservedDisclaimer
December showed further evidence that the nations housing market is experiencing continued weakness.Construction spending was again down significantly declining 12.52% as compared to December 2005.Single family construction spending was down a more dramatic 22.0% reflecting the significant drop off in demand for new construction homes as well as home rehabilitation.The following charts show changes to construction spending (click for larger version):Additionally, the first preliminary Q4 2006 GDP report showed a continued and substantial decline to residential fixed investment.It’s important to note that although the overall 3.5% increase in GDP was a fairly strong showing, the substantial decline to residential fixed investment still managed to shave 1.16% from its bottom line.Furthermore, non-residential investment is now declining showing a comparatively small decline of 0.4%, the first decline since Q1 2003.Also, it seems that the preliminary GDP report may have captured some anomalies that may either be short lived or very well be revised away in subsequent releases.The current report showed an unusually large 6.9% increase to non-durable goods as well as an 11.9% increase in national defense spending.Additionally, there was a strong increase to net exports of goods and services and strong decrease to net imports, both working to boost overall GDP.The following is chart shows real residential fixed investment versus overall GDP since Q1 2003 (click for larger version).With their latest rate announcement, the Federal Reserve revised their statement on housing indicating that there may be “.. some tentative signs of stabilization have appeared in the housing market”.This may be taken as a significant change in sentiment considering that just last month they were indicating that they had seen “substantial cooling in the housing market”. On the other had it could be that they are simply acknowledging some recent indicators like mortgage purchase applications.The National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their “Pending Home Sales” report last week showing that, on a year-over-year basis, home sales were down nationally and in every reported region.On a seasonally adjusted month-to-month basis there has been an increase from the lows set between September and November but each regions values are still well below their peak values and not enough data exists to yet declare that a bottom has been reached.This is especially true for the Northeast region where the index has been below 2001 levels since June 2006.David Lereah, Chief Economist of NAR had the following to say:“Some of the monthly gain may be weather related, but it appears buyers are becoming more comfortable, sensing the timing is good and that their local market has bottomed out,… I expect modest sales gains throughout the year, with what I believe are sustainable levels of activity. 2007 promises to be the fourth best year on record.”The following shows a short (top chart) and long (bottom chart) term view of the NAR Pending Home Sales Index with data complete to November 2006:housing+bubble housing bubble realtor national+association+of+realtors NAR lereah economy recession interest+rates mortgage loan ARM lenders bernenke greenspanCopyright © 2007PaperMoney Blog - www.paperdinero.com All Rights ReservedDisclaimer
Thought Monetary Policy Would “Normalize”? Prepare for Disappointment…
Dollar Confounds Strategists Ripping Up Forecasts on Market Rout


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10 Best Hotels Closest to Stanford University in Stanford for 2020 | Expedia.co.nz
Stanford Travel GuideFlights to StanfordActivities in StanfordStanford University Car HireStanford University Vacations
TonightJan 26 - Jan 27Check prices close to Stanford University for tonight, Jan 26 - Jan 27
Tomorrow nightJan 27 - Jan 28Check prices close to Stanford University for tomorrow night, Jan 27 - Jan 28
Next weekendJan 31 - Feb 2Check prices close to Stanford University for next weekend, Jan 31 - Feb 2
678 Cheap Hotels Near Stanford University
"It was great. Clean and comfortable beds and bathrooms."…""It was great. Clean and comfortable beds and bathrooms."WWW…"
"nicely updated, clean, great location, great price."…""nicely updated, clean, great location, great price."WWW…"
2.8 km from Stanford University
Stanford University is located in an area of Palo Alto known for its magnificent mountain views, array of dining options and sporting events. If you’re looking for a convenient place to stay, take a look at the 6 hotels and other accommodations you’ll find within a mile.
Where is the best place to stay near Stanford University?
Sheraton Palo Alto Hotel is one of the top choices for your stay based on our traveller data, and this 3.5-star hotel offers a restaurant and an outdoor pool. It’s located just a short 1 mi (1.6 km) from Stanford University. Other good choices close by include The Westin Palo Alto and The Clement Hotel - All Inclusive.
You might want to spend some time browsing the exhibits at Los Altos History Museum, Cantor Arts Center or Portola Art Gallery. Hoover Tower, Stanford Theatre and Stanford Memorial Church are landmarks that you won’t want to miss. You can wander around Rodin Sculpture Garden, Rengstorff Park or Stanford University Arboretum if you want a dose of fresh air.
Recent Reviews in Stanford University
The property was clean. Even though the area is old, they did their best to make it less apparent. My room had the strangest shower door.…The property was clean. Even though the area is old, they did their best to make it less apparent. My room had the strangest shower door.WW…
Great great great. Great location, great use of space, greAt service and great breakfast.…Great great great. Great location, great use of space, greAt service and great breakfast.WW…
We were able rest well and Stanford Hispital was near.…We were able rest well and Stanford Hispital was near.WW…
A verified traveller from Santa Maria CA stayed at Hotel Parmani
Area is great, hotel is nicely appointed, staff is friendly, …Area is great, hotel is nicely appointed, staff is friendly, WW…
A verified traveller from Capistrano Beach stayed at Stanford Park Hotel
Are there hotels near Stanford University?
See a list of all hotels near Stanford University
Hilton Long Beach HotelThe Havannah Vanuatu - Exclusively for adultsManukau Motor LodgeNanuku Auberge ResortParadise Cove Resort Whitsundays - All InclusiveSheraton Universal HotelSimon's PlaceCasa Bueras Boutique HotelDarwin City Edge Motel & SuitesDoubleTree by Hilton Bangkok PloenchitGaju Suite HotelHOTEL MYSTAYS Shin Osaka Conference CenterHotel Punta TragaraHotels in DeauvilleHotels in DumaiHotels in IslandmageeHotels in KimitsuHotels in KurmaHotels in Sa'anapu-TaiHotels in SarinaHotels in Twentynine PalmsHotel SoleilInterContinental Singapore Robertson QuayST Residences NovenaThe Gregory HotelThe Watergate HotelThe Westin Paris - Vendôme
Air VanuatuFlights to Budapest
3d5049e1-9761-4ca1-a0d2-7503cb65e631704367ab-a0c9-4d7a-be8f-aebea05bb5f53d5049e1-9761-4ca1-a0d2-7503cb65e631eeb1c85f-c66b-4708-8cdc-8154c09f2c1b

value: Expedia Inc. is an online travel agency owned by Expedia Group, an American online travel shopping company based in Seattle.


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28 | February | 2014 | scrappystickyinkymess
Daily Archives: 28/02/2014
Sometimes, you see something that is just begging to be used RIGHT NOW. Sarah commented on by blog banner for WOYWW – apparently, the fact I had a Hunter S. Thompson quote on it almost made her head explode (her words.)
I sent her a link to one of my Stampotique projects that had many more HST quotes and she returned the favour by sending ME a link to her site with some cute/weird digi stamps. After trolling thru her long list of them, and grabbing quite a few, a handful of them spoke to me so strongly I just had to do SOMETHING with them right away.
Now, when I want to do something creative but time is short, I tend to fall back on ATCs or tags – they are small, quick to do, and more often than not I can use stuff I have hanging around. It has been a LONG time since I did any colouring in with my Copics and the images seemed to cry out for that – some of the areas are soooooo tiny, and my colouring skills are not the best, but I think they turned out OK. I wasn’t even going to TRY to cut the thinnest areas so left a bit of a border. Here they are:
The backgrounds are all bits of Gelli prints, scraps leftover from other projects. Here are the close-ups so you can read the text a bit better:
668 – the neighbour of the beast
You’ll never find the answer to “What’s the right hat?”
I think I need another hat on the left to balance it better. I just need to find one more….
and finally, If you were going to shoot a mime, would you use a silencer?
That one is actually from their Christmas selection, in lieu of 3 French Hens, it’s 3 French Mimes. The unfortunate placement of the last bullet hole stamp is due to the annoying habit of cling/clear stamps when the sticky is less than strong – they fall off the block and if they are already inked, well, you get the stamped image where it falls. Vaguely anti-feminist, I think, but That one was the MOST, the fiddliest, colouring in and I am not going to re-do it, so I’ll live with it.
Have a gander at the others – you might find one that appeals. I still have a Day of the Dead sort of image and one she calls The Patron Saint of Low Bandwidth (OMG do I need a patron Saint like that!) waiting in the wings….
Sad that after missing 2 months of crops the one that was meant to be this week ended up getting cancelled due to low numbers, and the one NEXT weekend may conflict with something. Since it seems I never get around to making layouts unless I am at a crop, holding on to planned pages for that fun, communal time, I am feeling like I may have to clear the decks and just make a page, to scratch that itch. But not today…
Categories: ATCs, digital goodies, Gelli plate monoprints, stamping | Tags: ATCs, Gelli plate, stamps | Permalink.


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Dark lights | Papers on fire
May 31, 2017 May 31, 2017 / papersonfire
It was five whole weeks later that I learnt about the significance of that episode that glorious night when my eyes decided to open themselves and enjoy the sensation of sight. I had the privilege of understanding what I was and for those of you reading this who could not grasp such an obvious predicament.. for you all, I shall have to clarify that yes indeed I, Bholu, am a ROADACIAN; or commonly known as a Street Dog. The one licking me with all her might that night and the one who carried me in his mouth after that awfully loud noise were my parents. They were solely responsible for my birth and they were going to be the ones to look after me till I could start looking after myself.
My mother, who’s licking had increased since that night was a very strange being. Enveloping us in umpteen amounts of her saliva one moment and in the very next she had her teeth out, chiding her lungs out at her husband or us. Ah! Well that brings me to “us”; namely Chintu, my elder brother, Sadhu and Ghushan, my elder sisters and Nonte, my younger brother. Yes people you just read five hilarious names but to you I should inform that all these names were christened to us by none other than another kin of your race. Sarcasm must be noted. This human whom I just mentioned, named us even before our own parents could assemble all of us together! They were not at all surprised because even their names had been given by this very same woman whom everyone called ‘Mashi’. It occurred to me that this Mashi was a famous woman as everyone who came to her shop knew her by her name. We used to loiter around all day near her shop looking for scrapes that some humans graciously left for us to nibble at and at night we took shelter in the neighborhood. Some nights were good if we could sneak in and sleep at the front porches of the nearby houses while most were plagued with mid night rants from the occupants of those houses whose front porches we used for a mere four or five hours. From a very early age we knew that our lives were hard as mostly we had the nights mentioned latter. Thus, my journey of life started with my four siblings but there was one major difference between them and me… I had the huge honor of being born on that fateful day known to you humans as Deepavali; the Festival of Lights.
Dark Lights, Uncategorized
Dogs, expressing thoughts through words, heartfelt words, Life, Love, Musings, Pets, stories about dogs, Street dogs, Unconditional love, what if dogs could understand our language?
← Dark Lights – Prologue
There’s much more than a match! →


value: Google Play, also branded as the Google Play Store and formerly Android Market, is a digital distribution service operated and developed by Google. It serves as the official app store for certified devices running on the Android operating system and its derivatives as well as Chrome OS, allowing users to browse and download applications developed with the Android software development kit (SDK) and published through Google.


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Florists & Flower Shops near Terra Losa Shopping Centre Edmonton AB | Florists & Flower Shops, T5C Yellowpages.ca™
We are an independent florist and flower shop located in Edmonton. We provide FREE same day delivery in Edmonton ,Lisa’s Gifts and Flowers delivers fresh flowers arrangements daily...

value: The yellow pages are telephone directories of businesses, organized by category rather than alphabetically by business name, in which advertising is sold. The directories were originally printed on yellow paper, as opposed to white pages for non-commercial listings.


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Amazon.com: Carolina Munoz's review of Amazon
NOT Apple, December 3, 2013
By Carolina Munoz
I'm pretty sure this product is not apple. The picture shows that it has the little apple mark but the product doesn't have it. I guess I should have figured because of the price. I will keep it because it works and I can't afford to be without my computer in the middle of finals but THIS IS NOT APPLE.
B00F4SECW0
Top Reviewer Ranking: 9,955,119

value: Amazon.com, Inc. ( AM-ə-zon) is an American multinational conglomerate which focuses on e-commerce, cloud computing, digital streaming, and artificial intelligence.


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Anonymous Monetarist: Time Pundits
Oh my, this is very very clever.Thank you.
So, It is politically impossible for the strong economies of Europe to pass a bailout, it is politically impossible for Greece policy makers to pass sufficient budget cuts, if budget cuts are implemented then it will just push Greece further into debt deflation, a default by Greece will cause a run on the European banking system, the ECB has no legal authority to purchase Greece’s bonds, if Greece gets bailed out the EU will need to confront similar problems with Spain, Italy, Ireland, and Portugal which have a combined GDP larger than Germany, and if they all get bailed out Germany itself will be bankrupt. Did we say the markets hate uncertainty?Euro Crisis
Indeed, markets will keep coming back to this until they get the explicit guarantee needed to remove the uncertainty.And Spain? Gosh it looks like a death spiral. As of December 2009, the official unemployment rate is 20%, but it is estimated that the real rate is 25% or more?Some of their mortgages are 40 to 50 years?And if memory serves, 97% of mortgages are at VARIABLE RATE INTEREST??Hmmm, a debt crisis in Europe resulting in widespread defaults and interest moratoriums that cause capital flight to the dollar and protectionist measures? Or in other words ...http://anonymousmonetarist.blogspot.com/2009/11/turkey-day-in-dubai-at-greek-restaurant.htmlMerrily we rhyme along...
Falas português?Abraços.


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WHOLE: Reality TV Confessions
I don't have cable. That makes some people gasp in horror and for some people it's completely normal. Before I got married this was totally foreign to me and then it took me about 2 years of occasional pity parties to adjust to this cableless life I now lead. I'm content now. It saves money on a bunch of channels we really wouldn't have time to watch anyway.
But when it's summertime....sometimes, well a lot of times, especially at the beginning, a girl (well a teacher) just wants to watch some tv. So then I watch the Today Show for 4 hours (not everyday) and then I thank the Lord for Hulu. Ahhh yes. Internet tv. I really don't know how I'd get through the summer without it.
Last summer I discovered The Real Housewives (of various cities) and thus started my preoccupation with these shows. I have yet to get into Atlanta, but I am thoroughly invested in all other casts. I just love it! I love watching them live their lives. I'm not sure why. It's not like they do anything all that fascinating, unless you count the OBSCENE amounts of money they spend in one episode sometimes fascinating. Maybe that was the original draw for me. But then I got involved in all the drama, and I wanted to see the outcome of all the cat fights. And I was hooked. It didn't take very long.
So today I caught up on the reunion of the NYC cast and I watched the latest episode of the NJ cast. Oh the drama. And I watched the first episode of Bethenny Getting Married. I love that show too! I also have to confess that I got Bethenny's workout dvd and it's REALLY good! It's a 40 minute yoga workout that felt like it really toned my muscles and then a few minutes of weights after that. I think it's worth the $15.
So there. I've confessed my reality tv habits and slight obsessions and my giving in to the whole Bethenny marketing ploy. I feel better now.
I also feel the need to say that I did productive things today like giving my dog a bath, cleaning, washing clothes and yoga. :)
Kathy at Wellness Roadtrip June 14, 2010 at 5:54 PM
I think a little reality TV is a good thing! I have yet to do the housewives...but I'm a sucker for the Bachelor, Top Chef, So you think you can dance and oh, my fave...Project Runway. It is all a harmless guilty pleasure!


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digitals: Nikon D7000 16.2MP DX-Format CMOS Digital SLR with 3.0 Inch LCD and 18-105mm f/3.5-5.6 AF-S DX VR ED Nikkor Lens
Item model number: D7000 18-105mm Kit
Amazon Bestsellers Rank: #21 in Camera & Photo (See Top 100 in Camera & Photo)
Labels: nikon camera, nikon digital camera, Nikon dlsr


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Екатерина (kitikatmy) on Pinterest
Photography HacksPhotography Cheat SheetsPhotography EditingDigital PhotographyPhoto EditingPhotography TutorialsTennesseeMiddlePhoto TipsForward
A beginner's tutorial on how to use ISO in regards to exposure with a DSLR camera. Comparison of noise with higher ISO.
Promotional FlyersBanner TemplateBusiness PosterOutdoor BannersRollup BannerBanner StandsMockupSignage DesignPrint TemplatesForward


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Posted by lavidaburquena in work
By request, I have made my journal more
user-friendly (i.e., I changed the font to be more readable). I
also changed my user icon because I had it when I was
and kind of missed it, especially now that I’m teaching again. I
had a meeting this morning at 10:00 to discuss the finer points of
individual teaching and to look over possible repertoire and skill
books for my students. I now have a total of 5 private
students. Two on Mondays, two on Wednesdays (they’re identical
twins and one of them has perfect pitch), and one on Friday. (My boss
told me she was a goth girl. And she’s 12. Riiiight.)
Tomorrow I’m going with a new teacher to see what the music store has
to offer and get them to order some books if necessary. I have at
least one student on Czerny etudes and I have a student who wants to
play stuff from Cats and
stuff by ABBA. I think her mom was still toilet training when
ABBA was popular, but if she wants it, she gets it. I can’t wait
to hear her rendition of “Dancing Queen.”
I drove over to Birmingham last night to help a friend
celebrate her birthday and got back here around 11:00-ish. I had
a really great time, and had I not scheduled a meeting for this morning
I would have definitely stayed later. I have plans to go back
over on Saturday or Sunday to do some shopping with two of my
friends. Rashmee, the hostess, had an awesome mix CD that her
friend Mark made for her, complete with cover art. A while back
she tried setting me up with him, but it didn’t work out because he
found a job in Atlanta. Every now and then I think about him and
wonder what he’s up to, and listening to the CD probably wasn’t the
best thing for me because his tastes are so squarely aligned with mine
and it sort of freaked me out. Even still, she’s hopefully
burning a copy for me and will give it to me next weekend.
I meant to go to the gym today but honestly had no time in which to do
so. My meeting went 10-1 today, then I came home, ate lunch, took
a shower and then went to teach from 3-4:15. Scott and I are
going out to dinner tonight around 6, and I don’t much feel like having
a 30 minute quick workout and then frantically showering (again).
If time permits, I’ll go late tonight, or I may just hold off until
tomorrow morning. I have yet another meeting at 10, but if I time
it right I should be able to get a workout in before that. I’ve
been surprisingly dedicated to my routine and I’m hoping to see results
soon. I’ve gone to the gym 5 or 6 days per week since coming back from
Chicago. Maybe by the time Labor Day rolls around I will have
dropped another few pounds and maybe even lost a size. I think
the key lies in consistency and watching my diet. I’m not
obsessive by any means (I let myself enjoy my food and I go out to eat)
but I need to be more vigilant in the area of empty calories.
Water instead of Powerade, unsweet instead of sweet, diet instead of
regular sodas (although I need to just cut those out altogether because
they’re less than good for your bones). I also need to cut back
on my dairy consumption. Even though I have lots of trouble w/
dairy, I was allowing myself some because I was afraid of not getting
enough B vitamins (since I eat no meat or seafood). I think my
vitamins coupled with the fact I eat eggs should be enough, so no more
dairy for me. It’s pretty fattening and not so great of a source
of vitamins that I can’t skip it. Besides, pizza without the
cheese is so freaking amazing. Try it, you’ll see…
I need to just be a bum for 10 minutes. That’s all.


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The Fit Bohemian: WHAT A WEEK!
After taking a week off last week because I felt like poo, I came back stronger than ever this week! I started out on Monday working out with a couple of friends and we did upper body for about 45 minutes. WOW! I don't have the greatest strength in my arms....my legs....they were born big and strong; my arms on the other hand.....yeaaaaahhhhhh, not so much. Push ups absolutely KILL me! But I gave it my best shot.
Then on to Yoga mid morning. That hour FLEW by! I have felt lately like I need to stretch out all these muscles I'm building and could certainly use some time to de-stress. Hence, I'm now taking Yoga on Monday mornings. It felt WONDERFUL! Relaxing, strengthening and lengthening all at once. I can see what Madonna is all excited about. So. Not so much challenging as much as relaxing. I was feeling so good, I decided to do an hour of power walking after work!
This "could" be me!
The great thing about walking is that I get to listen to my music. I was going UP the hills and DOWN the hills. It's been a while since I've been walking because it's been so stinking hot outside. But Monday it just felt great and so did I! By the end of the hour, I was drenched and stinky! I really felt like I was starting my week off strong.
Whew! All that and I'm just now getting to Tuesday! Tuesday morning I did a circuit training class with an instructor at the gym. She is 8 months pregnant and is a MACHINE! This is her seventh child and she's about 41 years old. Amazing! I was joking with her before class, that if she and I lived during mideval times; we'd be the peasant breeder stock. Tilling fields, dropping babies and carrying buckets of water on our heads!
Me and Stacey?
Wednesdays are always a little frightening. We do Robo Trainer Mandy's class. Basically, she walks in little, tight and smiling with her curly hair bouncing and you can just feel the love. 15 minutes later, I'm looking at the clock wondering how I can possibly make it another 45! We did kick boxing! I'm not talking about a few kicks on each side. I'm talking a kazillion kicks on each leg! By the end of the class, I could barely pick up my feet off the floor. Here's the thing about Mandy's classes. You know how the Bible says that God's word does not return void...it always produces and works good. Well, Mandy's workouts do not return void. I never doubt that when I do her class, I walking out of there with new muscle tone. OH! And the BEST thing happened in that class. I was working out and the entire front wall is mirror, so you can see what you're doing. As I'm doing my kicks and jacks, I notice my entire quadricep....OUTLINED! My quads are shy. They don't like to call attention to themselves. But lo and behold Wednesday, they were coming out of their shells!
Mandy = Robo Trainer!
Now, onto Thursday. TRX day! Forty minutes of TRX and kettlebells. Some of the simplest moves really get right into those muscles. Mandy had us use a 35 pound kettlebell and hold it down in front of our bodies. Then, we were to squat (with backside sticking out) straight down and put the bell down on the floor. Stand back up and then squat down again and pick up the bell. Stand up and then squat back down putting it on the floor again. Seems simple enough right? Well! That was really tough. I don't even know how to describe the TRX exercises. There were times when I felt like a Cirque de Soleil reject!
When I woke up this morning, the first thing I said to my husband was, "Oh my Gosh, there's not a muscle on my body that isn't SCREAMING!" Being the encourager, he said, "You know what helps soreness, don't you?"
"A good workout!"
So, off to the gym to do the most challenging class of the week - total weight lifting! With every step, PAIN! I'm walking like a 106 year drunk woman and there I go, setting up my weights. The experience was almost weep worthy. We squatted till we could squat no more! We pushed, we lunged. We hinged, we popped. The end of the class, we're all looking at each other, shell shocked; but pride welling up inside that we could even complete the hour. As I sit here, the tips of my fingers the only part of me that isn't stiff, sore or painful; I'm not complaining. I pushed myself and if it doesn't feel the best in my body right now, my soul is soaring!
I'm an all star!!!!!


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Seedot Line/ORAS | Project NuzlockeDex Wiki | FANDOM powered by Wikia
Seedot Line/ORAS
Wally (Mauville City): Ralts can only 4HK0 Nuzleaf with Disarming Voice, meanwhile Razor Leaf is a 2HKO, have fun.
Gym #3 - Wattson (Mauville City, Electric-type): While this was an utterly miserable fight for Nuzleaf in the original games, access to Low Sweep allows for easy dispatching of his lead Magnemite with a 2HKO, Thunder Wave presents a minor issue in regards to his other Pokémon though. Voltorb is also a pretty easy foe to deal with, as lacking Self-destruct in the remakes lets you quickly deal with it through Razor Leaf being a 3HKO in contrast to Volt Switch or Rollout struggling to do 20%. Magneton is still a dicey prospect, as Volt Switch and Magnet Bomb are more then capable of matching Low Sweep's damage output at equal levels.
Tabitha (Meteor Falls, tag battle with rival): While his minion's Mightyena might be unable to hit Nuzleaf neutrally, Intimidate is a pain due to weakening Razor Leaf. Numel has Lava Plume and Koffing will kill Nuzleaf, best avoided
Tabitha (Mt. Chimney): See above, just without the Mightyena.
Maxie (Mt. Chimney): His Mightyena falls into the same pitfalls as the one back in Meteor Falls, except without a teammate that can slaughter Nuzleaf. However both Assurance and Razor Leaf are 5HKOs factoring in Intimidate, and Mightyena is probably faster. The other two should be avoided as Nuzleaf is too frail to take a hit from either Golbat or Camerupt, and cannot even attempt to OHKO them.
Gym #4 - Flannery (Lavaridge Town, Fire-type): No, just don't. Overheat/Lava Plume from anything will be more then enough to obliterate Nuzleaf and Sunny Day just adds to the overkill.
Courtney (Southern Island, tag battle with Steven):
Tabitha (Weather Institute):
Courtney (Lilycove Hideout):
Maxie (Seafloor Cavern):
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Dancing Springs #3DThursday #3DPrinting | Internet of Things, Wearable, Sensor and Data Technologies
Dancing Springs #3DThursday #3DPrinting
from Dancing Springs #3DThursday #3DPrinting
Desktop_Makes shares:
I designed this with Fusion 360. Learn Fusion 360 with my online video courses at http://ift.tt/2oKyhZD
Get the Arduino code and full project instructions at http://ift.tt/2oKyhZD
download the files on: http://ift.tt/2tMT80R


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DJDEB's Designs and thoughts...: my new addiction
I have always had a fascination with all things dealing with the sea. Perhaps it started when I spent many summers in Salem, Massachusetts with my grandparents. Hanging at the beach and then when I was older going on many whale watches and harbor cruises.
Here is the boat my sister, nephew and I took out of Gloucester on the "Perfect Storm" Ride. Yes that is how they advertised it. :)
And there is my love for lighthouses... I believe this came about from my faith as I have grown up hearing the phrase that Jesus is my Lighthouse. As I have grown older, I know this is true and the beacons of light hold a more special place to my heart.
I have said this to say...... My new addiction is all the wonderful nautical, beach and ocean blogs out there in blog world. It's a whole new world I never knew existed. Here are a few of my favorites.
There is another great blog that hails from Australia called Beach Vintage. She has great craft ideas and beautiful pictures.
So please check out my new addictions and let em know what ya think....
Labels: blogworld, lighthouses, nautical
Debbie - I love lighthouses - even though I live far away from the beach. (There is one or two on the Texas coast, but I'm a good distance away).
I bought a calendar for my office this year that has pictures of lighthouses and scripture. I can look at it from my windowless office, enjoy a beautiful scene, and remember the True Light.