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Data: While 2.5% of Urban Water Bodies Are Encroached Across India, Not a Single Urban Water Body Encroachment Reported From Karnataka
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
May 15, 2023
The first ever water bodies Census revealed that a total of more than 38,000 water bodies across India are encroached or about 1.6% of all enumerated water bodies. While this share was 2.5% in Urban areas, not a single urban water body encroachment was reported from Karnataka contrary to many other reports.
India, despite having multiple freshwater sources, is under water stress now. Water bodies are stressed due to the growing demand on account of increasing population, negligence, pollution, and exploitation. On top of these, water bodies are being encroached for human activities. This increases impervious cover adjacent to these water bodies like rivers, lakes, and wetlands, and causes variations in runoff rate, volume, temperature, and loading of sediments. The functions of the water bodies are significantly affected resulting in a decline in water quality, disturbance in equilibrium conditions, and loss of terrestrial and aquatic habitat. Encroachment, among others, has been cited as a reason for the severe floods in metro cities in recent years.
First ever census on water bodies provides data on encroachment of water bodies
The first-ever census report on water bodies undertaken by the Ministry of Jal Shakti was released recently. The report provides valuable insights into the water bodies in India by providing important information such as the size of the water body, usage, status of encroachments, storage capacity, and recovery works, among others. Factly had earlier published a story on this census along with an analysis of the distribution of water bodies across the country. We also looked into the useability of these  24.24 lakh water bodies and the reasons behind the same in another story. In this story, we look at the figures pertaining to encroachment of these water bodies, that have been collected for the first time, during this census exercise. We use data from the first water body census that is available on Dataful for analysis.
The report defines encroachment of water bodies as the illegal entry into the defined boundary of the water body for various human activities like construction, agriculture, etc. Out of the 24.24 lakh water bodies enumerated in the census, a total of 38,496 water bodies, or 1.6% were reported as encroached.
4 states account for 80% of the encroached water bodies
State-wise data reveals that Uttar Pradesh had the greatest number of water bodies encroached, with 15,301 followed by Tamil Nadu with 8,366. Andhra Pradesh and Telangana have also recorded more than 3,000 encroached water bodies each. Together, these 4 states account for almost 80% of the total water bodies encroached in the country.
However, the share of water bodies encroached across states gives a clearer picture since the number of water bodies enumerated in each state varies. For instance, in Andhra Pradesh, 3,920 water bodies are encroached out of the total 1.9 lakh water bodies enumerated in the state. This number is much larger than the total number of water bodies enumerated in the northeastern states.
About 1 in 4 water bodies in Delhi have been encroached
In terms of the percentage of water bodies encroached as against the total number of water bodies enumerated in the respective states, it is seen that the variation across states is huge. It ranges from less than 1% in states like Odisha, Kerala, Jharkhand, and Maharashtra to more than 24% in Delhi. After Delhi, Punjab has the highest share of water bodies encroached with nearly 10% followed by Tamil Nadu with nearly 8% and Uttar Pradesh with 6.2%. The chart below depicts the top 10 states/UTs with the highest share of water bodies encroached as compared to the national figure.
Share of encroached water bodies in urban areas is higher than that in rural areas
The report also highlights that most of the encroached water bodies, 95.4%, are in rural areas and urban areas account for the remaining 4.6%. This disparity is because the number of water bodies enumerated in rural areas is much more than that in urban areas. A total of 24,24,540 water bodies have been enumerated for the Census, out of which 97.1% (23.5 lakh water bodies) are in rural areas and only 2.9% (69,485) are in urban areas. Out of the 23.5 lakh water bodies in rural areas, 36,736 water bodies are encroached while in urban areas, 1,760 water bodies are encroached. This can also be read as 1.6% of the water bodies enumerated in rural areas were encroached as compared to 2.5% in urban areas.
This disparity is also evident across states. Nearly 39% of the water bodies in urban areas of Delhi are encroached as against 23.4% in rural areas. Similarly, in Tamil Nadu, the share of encroached water bodies in urban areas is more than 13% while in rural areas it is less than 8%. Likewise, 11.3% of the water bodies in urban Telangana are encroached compared to 4.6% in rural parts of the state. Such disparity in rural and urban figures is visible in states like Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Puducherry, and Gujarat. It is also observed that the number of encroached water bodies in urban parts of Maharashtra, Karnataka, and West Bengal where some of the major Indian cities are located, is reported as zero. This number requires scrutiny as India’s CAG had earlier flagged large-scale encroachment of lakes/drains and depletion of natural drainage systems in Bengaluru.
More than 50% of the area is encroached for about 20% of the encroached water bodies
The area encroached for 24,516 out of the total 38,496 water bodies could be assessed during the survey. Based on the area encroached, the report categorises the water bodies reeling under encroachment of different levels into 4- those that have less than 25% of the area encroached, those with 25 to 50% encroached, those with 50 to 75% encroached, and those with more than 75% area under encroachment. 62.8% of these water bodies have less than 25% area under encroachment while 11.8% have more than 75% of area under encroachment. About 17.8% had 25 to 50% area under encroachment and the remaining 7.6% had 50 to 75% area under encroachment. In other words, about one in every five encroached water bodies had more than 50% of their area encroached.
Among states/UTs, it is observed that in Delhi, nearly 84% of the water bodies assessed for encroachment area had more than 75% of their encroached. In the states of Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, and Tamil Nadu, the share of encroached water bodies that are encroached by more than 75% was more than the national average. Further, in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Karnataka, and Jharkhand, the share of water bodies encroached by less than 25%, was much higher than the national average.
Majority of the encroached water bodies are Ponds
The report also reveals that more than two-thirds of all encroached water bodies are ponds. This is followed by tanks accounting for 21%, water conservation schemes/check dams/percolation tanks that take up 4.5% and the rest 6.9% are lakes, reservoirs, and other water bodies.
While construction & other such activities may be necessary, it must be ensured that it does not take place at the cost of the country’s natural resources. India is endowed with numerous lakes, ponds, and other water bodies. Numerous studies and government reports have multiple times in the past highlighted how the damage during floods and cyclones is huge because of poor planning and encroachment of water bodies that affect the drainage of excess water, especially in cities where encroachment is widespread.
Featured Image: Water Bodies Census


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Data: While Amount Involved in ‘Advances’ Related Banking Frauds Decreases, Those Involved in ‘Card/Internet’ Increases - FACTLY
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
March 4, 2024
The Report on ‘Trend and Progress of Banking in India 2022-23’ is an annual performance report released by the RBI that offers a comprehensive analysis of the Indian banking sector, covering SCBs, NBFCs among others. The report underscores the robust state of India’s banking system and NBFCs while highlighting some shortcomings.
The Report on Trend and Progress of Banking in India 2022-23 is an annual performance report released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in accordance with Section 36(2) of the Banking Regulation Act, 1949. This statutory publication offers a comprehensive analysis of the Indian banking sector, covering cooperative banks and Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs). The report provides insights into the achievements and challenges of the sector, offering a detailed overview of their contributions to the country’s economic framework. In this story, we look at some of the key findings of the report.
Consolidated balance sheet of SCBs grew by 12.2%, highest in 9 years
As of March 2023, India had 140 commercial banks, including 12 Public Sector Banks (PSBs), 21 Private Sector Banks (PVBs), 44 Foreign Banks (FBs), and others. Out of these, 136 were Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs). The consolidated balance sheet of these banks grew by 12.2% in 2022-23, the highest in 9 years. There has also been a shift in the composition of the banking sector’s consolidated balance sheet, with a 1% decrease in the share of PSBs and a corresponding increase in the share held by private banks.
The report underscores the robust state of India’s banking system and NBFCs. This is evident from the high capital ratios, improved asset quality, and substantial earnings growth. Further, it noted that this financial resilience has facilitated a double-digit credit expansion, playing a pivotal role in supporting domestic economic activities. In short, the report states that the country’s banking system is in good shape due to improvements in some parameters. Two key parameters have been discussed below.
CRAR of PSBs increased while that of PVBs dropped marginally
Capital to Risk-Weighted Assets Ratio (CRAR) is a key financial metric used to assess the financial strength and stability of a bank. A higher CRAR indicates a stronger financial position and a better ability to withstand economic downturns or financial shocks. The report noted that the CRAR of PSBs reported an increase from 14.6% in 2022 to 15.5% in 2023 while that of PVBs witnessed a marginal drop from 18.8% to 18.6%. Meanwhile, the CRAR of Foreign Banks remained at 19.8%. These figures indicate that PSBs have strengthened their capital position, while PVBs experienced a slight decrease even though they are well capitalised while FBs have consistently maintained a strong capital position.
GNPA of SCBs in 2022-23 was lowest in the last decade
Gross Non-Performing Assets or GNPA is the total value of all non-performing assets before factoring in any provisions or deductions. The metric is used to assess the quality of a bank’s assets. A lower GNPA ratio indicates that a smaller proportion of a bank’s loans is classified as non-performing or not being repaid, suggesting healthier asset quality. The report revealed that there was an improvement in the asset quality as the GNPA continued to fall.
The GNPA ratio of SCBs fell to a decadal low of 3.9% by the end of March 2023 and further down to 3.2% by the end of September 2023. This trend has been ongoing since 2018-19. The report further highlighted that recoveries (money received from previously non-performing loans) and upgrades (improvement in the status of certain loans) accounted for around 45% of the reduction in GNPAs of SCBs during 2022-23. The agricultural sector had the highest GNPA ratio, while retail loans had the lowest. Among different banks, PSBs saw a fall in GNPA from 7.3% to 5%, PVBs saw a decline from 3.8% to 2% and FBs registered a fall from 2.9% to 1.9% between 2021-22 and 2022-23.
The asset quality of NBFCs has also improved over the years. The GNPA ratio fell to the lowest in five years in 2022-23 from 6.4% in 2019 to 4.6% in 2023.
Cases of frauds have increased but amount involved has dropped
The report has highlighted two major issues that hinder the smooth functioning of banks. One issue is the rising cases of fraud. Between 2020-21 and 2022-23, the number of cases of frauds reported (those involving Rs. 1 Lakh and above) has increased from 7,263 cases to 13,576. However, the amount involved in fraud dropped. The amount involved was over Rs. 1.18 Lakh crores in 2020-21 which dropped to nearly one-fifth to Rs. 26,632 crores during 2022-23. During 2022-23, the total amount of frauds reported by banks declined to a six-year low while the average amount involved in frauds was the lowest in a decade. Between April and September 2023 (first half of 2023-24), the number of cases of fraud reported was 14,483 involving an amount of Rs. 2,642 crores as compared to 5,396 cases during the same period last year involving Rs. 17,685 crores. That is, the amount involved in frauds was only 14.9% of the previous year’s amount. The report also highlighted the growing threat of fraud and data breaches originating from cyber threats.
Data shows the reduction in the total amount involved in fraud is primarily because of the reduction in the amount involved in fraud in the case of advances by banks. However, the number of frauds involving Rs. 1 lakh & above in the case of card/internet transactions has increased significantly from 2545 in 2020-21 to 6699 in 2022-23 and to 12069 in just the first 6 months of 2023-24.
Customer service provided by banks is poor and needs to be inclusive
The other issue pointed out is the quality of customer service offered by banks. The efficiency, promptness, and cost-effectiveness of the grievance redressal mechanism are identified as critical for customer protection. Despite the advancements in banking technology, banks are falling short of providing timely solutions to customer grievances. The report noted the inefficiency in addressing customer grievances, noting a lag in adapting to evolving technology and diverse product offerings. The emphasis on monitoring turnaround time (TAT) and management information systems (MIS) on complaints may be overshadowing the importance of the quality of grievance redressal, pointing to a need for a more holistic approach, it noted. Data revealed that over 3.04 lakh complaints in 2022 and over 2.34 lakh complaints in 2023 (excluding CrPC cases) were registered. Nonetheless, over 98% of the cases were addressed in the same year.
To deal with the issues highlighted, the report emphasized the need for enhanced customer-centric approaches in both banking and non-banking sectors. It called for a more adaptive, customer-focused, and technologically-inclusive banking environment. Top of Form The RBI is also focused on the mitigation of systemic risks by assessing the extent of reliance on specific IT service providers.
India’s banking sector is resilient; robust governance and risk management can help improve the sector
To sum up, the report noted that the Indian banking sector and NBFCs continue to be sound and resilient which is characterized by elevated capital ratios and improved asset quality, as seen earlier. Noting the growing interconnectedness between banks and NBFCs, the report suggests that NBFCs should diversify their funding sources to end the reliance on bank funding. Furthermore, the report calls for a concerted effort from all stakeholders to strengthen the financial and payment systems against cyber threats. Acknowledging the risks in banking, the report also calls for bolstering balance sheets through robust governance and risk management practices for banks and NBFCs and building additional buffers to align with the escalating aspirations of the Indian economy.

source: news-factly

license: Creative Commons - Attribution - https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

author: Sai Krishna Muthyanolla


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Data: While ECI Announced Record Seizures, Data Published by Poll Body About Seizures is Incomplete & Inconsistent
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
May 10, 2024
In a press release dated 15 April 2024, the ECI announced that in the ongoing 2024 Lok Sabha election cycle, it is poised to mark the highest ever seizures of inducements in the history of Lok Sabha elections in India. However, review of historical data published by the ECI about seizures indicates that the data is incomplete & inconsistent.
In a press release dated 15 April 2024, the Election Commission of India (ECI) announced that in the ongoing 2024 Lok Sabha (18th) election cycle, it is poised to mark the highest-ever seizures of inducements in the history of Lok Sabha elections in India. Alongside this announcement, ECI also published data on the types of materials seized, their quantities, and values. According to this data, seizures worth Rs. 4,650 crores were made during 1 March 2024, to 13 April 2024, surpassing the Rs. 3,475 crores worth of seizures made during the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Additionally, country-wide seizures amounting to Rs. 7,502 crores were reported for January and February 2024, the months preceding the elections. Altogether, seizures worth Rs. 12,177 crores were recorded up to 13 April 2024, with six weeks remaining in the 2024 election period.
Against this backdrop, as part of our ongoing coverage of the 18 Lok Sabha elections, we delve into the concept of seizures, the procedural intricacies of seizure and disposal, the authorities responsible, and the insights gleaned from the seizure-related data.
Methodology and Notes
What is a Seizure and what can be Seized?
The term ‘Seizure’ has not been defined anywhere by ECI or in any legislation in the context of Elections in India. However, it can be inferred from the Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) note of ECI that seizure denotes confiscation of various materials, including liquor, cash, drugs, precious metals (such as gold and silver), arms, freebies (like laptops and cricket kits), and others. These items are viewed as tools utilized to influence voters to either support or refrain from supporting a specific candidate or party, thereby compromising electoral integrity.
Although lacking legal backing akin to the Model Code of Conduct (MCC), the SOP on seizures holds binding authority as it has been formulated by the ECI under the powers vested in it by Article 324 of the Constitution of India.
According to the SOP, during inspections, cash exceeding Rs. 50,000 and goods valued at over Rs. 10,000 which are carried by the contesting candidate, his agent, party worker, etc., and suspected of being intended for voter inducement, are subject to seizure.
However, the SOP outlines certain exemptions for carrying Cash. Star campaigners or party functionaries are permitted to carry cash up to Rs. 1 lakh, provided they obtain a certificate from the treasurer specifying the intended exclusive personal use or other specific end uses for the money. Further, even in cases where a vehicle is found to be carrying Rs. 10 lakhs or more, the SOP stipulates for non-seizure of the same cash subject to the condition that there is no suspicion of any criminal activity or association with candidates or their affiliates; but an intimation is sent to the Income Tax Department (ITD) in such cases.
Who can Seize and what are their Duties?
To inspect and seize material, including Cash, the SOP mandates the constitution of two teams, namely the Flying Squads (FS) and Static Surveillance Teams (SST). Each assembly constituency consists of three or more FS and SSTs. While the FS comprises a team of officials from different government authorities and is headed by a Magistrate, the SST comprises an Executive Magistrate and 3 to 4 police personnel. In the case of Expenditure Sensitive Constituencies (ESCs), the SOP stipulates for deployment of more FSs and SSTs, depending on the need.
The SST’s duties encompass a range of crucial tasks, including manning checkpoints, intercepting, and seizing illicit goods, filing First Information Reports (FIRs) against offenders, and raising public awareness about the legal consequences of bribery, among several others. On the other hand, FS is responsible for addressing complaints regarding threats, intimidation, and the illicit movement of goods. Both teams are required to perform these duties throughout the election period.
Who happens to the Seized Items?
To prevent public inconvenience and facilitate fair treatment, the SOP mandates the constitution of a committee, which comprises three District Officers, to suo-motu review and adjudicate on cases involving seized cash or goods. If no FIR is registered, the Committee orders the release of the money. Additionally, in these cases within no FIR, the committee is mandated to adjudicate and dispose of all of them within a period of not beyond a week from the polling date.
In other cases where the FIRs have been filed, the offences shall be proceeded against by the Police according to the provisions of respective laws, such as the Indian Penal Code (IPC), Representation of Peoples Act (RPA), and others.
Quantity of Seizures Increased Steeply
The seizure data published by the ECI includes details of the quantity and value of various materials, including cash, confiscated during each election period.
In terms of the quantity of material seized, the ECI provides state-wise totals for liquor, drugs/narcotics, and precious metals. Analysis of this data reveals that the total quantity of confiscated liquor increased from 161 to 191 lakh litres between the 2014 and 2019 elections. Remarkably, within the initial 45 days of the ongoing 2024 election period (from March 1 to April 13), this figure skyrocketed to 358 lakh litres.
In 2014, states like Punjab, West Bengal, Gujarat, and the Union Territory of Daman and Diu led with 65, 22, 15, and 15 lakh litres of seized liquor, respectively. By 2019, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, West Bengal, and Uttar Pradesh emerged as the top four states, with 44, 34, 17, and 16 lakh litres of seized liquor respectively. In 2024, Karnataka claimed the highest spot with 130 lakh litres of confiscated liquor, followed by Rajasthan and Maharashtra with 38 and 36 lakh litres, respectively.
Similar to liquor seizures, the quantity of drugs/narcotics seized has also shown a significant increase from 2014 to 2019; data for 2024 has not yet been released. The total quantity of these substances increased from 17 thousand kilograms (Kgs) in 2014 to 80 thousand Kgs in 2019, marking a 369% increase.
Punjab, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and Andhra Pradesh accounted for 8.4, 4.3, 1.5, and 1.02 thousand Kgs of seized drugs/narcotics, respectively, together contributing to 89% of the total seizures, in the year 2014. In 2019, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Punjab took the lead with 24.9, 20.5, 15.7, and 9.6 thousand Kgs seized, respectively, accounting for 88% of the total seizures.
The data regarding the quantity of seized metals is limited, with information only available for 2019, totalling 6,211 kilograms for that year. However, the overall trend indicates a significant increase in the number of seizures in the case of liquor and drug/narcotics confiscations.
The Monetary Value of Confiscations show a steep increase
Similar to data on the quantity of materials seized, the data on the total value of materials published by ECI is also limited. Except for Cash, the total monetary value of none of the other materials confiscated, such as Drugs/Narcotics, Freebies, Liquor and Metals, has been provided for 2014. All of these have been provided with data only for the years 2019 and 2024.
The analysis of this data shows that the total cash confiscated was Rs. 299 crores, Rs. 844 crores and Rs. 395 crores respectively during 2014, 2019 and 2024. The total value of materials seized, such as drugs/narcotics, freebies and liquor have increased from Rs. 1279 crores to Rs. 2068 crores, from Rs. 60 crores to Rs. 1142 crores, and from Rs. 304 crores to Rs. 489 crores, respectively, from 2019 to 2024. The value of metals confiscated in 2024 is Rs. 562 crores, while it was Rs. 987 crores in 2019. It has to be noted that the value of seizures in 2024 could be much higher as six more weeks of election period is pending as of 15 April 2024.
In 2014, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Punjab, and Maharashtra emerged as the top four states with seizures valued at Rs. 124 crores, Rs. 40 crores, Rs. 36 crores, and Rs. 24 crores, respectively, together accounting for 75% of the total seizures. In 2019, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Delhi, and Punjab took the lead with seizures valued at Rs. 952 crores, Rs. 553 crores, Rs. 430 crores, and Rs. 286 crores, accounting for a combined share of 64%. So far in 2024, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, and Maharashtra occupy the top four positions with seizures valued at Rs. 778 crores, Rs. 605 crores, Rs. 460 crores, and Rs. 431 crores, respectively, together accounting for 49% of the total seizures.
Limited & Incomplete Data is published by ECI
Unlike other election-related data published by the ECI, which dates back to the 1 Lok Sabha and Assembly elections and is comprehensive, data on seizures has only been made available since 2014. Even this post-2014 seizure data lacks consistency in terms of what is disclosed. As mentioned earlier, the data relating to various aspects of seizure, both in quantity and value, is not published even for the latest years 2019 and 2024. To add to this, while the 2014 data included details such as the number of illegal firearms, ammunition seized, and the number of individuals against whom cases were registered or actions were taken, similar information was absent in 2019 and in the ongoing 2024 elections. It is time for the ECI to publish and provide in the public domain comprehensive data on seizures on a real-time basis during the election period. Such disclosures would strengthen and enhance electoral transparency.


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Data: While NFHS-5 Indicates Progress on Nutrition Related Indicators, Some Districts are Far Behind the Curve - FACTLY
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
September 7, 2023
The National Family Health Survey (NFHS) reports provide data on nutrition-related indicators. As per NFHS-5 (2019-21), the nutrition indicators for children under 5 years have improved as compared with NFHS-4 (2015-16) at the national level with the share of Stunting, Wasting, and Underweight prevalence, all recording a reduction. However, some districts are far behind the curve.
Malnutrition is a pressing global health issue affecting millions of children, especially in low and middle-income countries. It is an important indicator of nutritional status and health in populations as it is a sign of bigger issues like insufficient access to nutritious food, poor maternal health, inadequate healthcare, poor sanitation, and socioeconomic disparities. The presence of malnutrition in a child signals potential vulnerabilities in their immune system, growth potential, and cognitive development.
According to a Lancet study published in 2019, in India, malnutrition was the predominant risk factor for death in children younger than five years of age in every state of India in 2017, accounting for 68.2% of the total under-five deaths, and the leading risk factor for health loss for all ages, responsible for 17.3% of the total disability-adjusted life years. Even though there has been considerable progress made by governments in addressing the multifaceted problem, malnutrition continues to cast a shadow over India’s progress.
NFHS Reports provide data on nutritional status
The National Family Health Survey (NFHS) reports provide data on nutrition-related indicators. The NFHS is a large-scale, nationally representative survey conducted in India to collect data on various aspects of population and health. It is one of the most comprehensive and authoritative sources of information on demographic and health indicators in the country. The NFHS is carried out by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, Government of India, with technical support from various organizations, including the International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS) and other international agencies.
Wasting, stunting, and being underweight are generally used to describe different forms of malnutrition and growth problems in children. These conditions are often used as indicators of a child’s overall nutritional status.
Overall, there has been improvement in child nutrition indicators at the national level, but trend varies across districts
As per NFHS-5 (2019-21), the nutrition indicators for children under 5 years have improved as compared with NFHS-4 (2015-16). Stunting has reduced from 38.4% to 35.5%, Wasting from 21.0% to 19.3%, and Underweight prevalence from 35.8% to 32.1%.
However, the trend is not uniform across districts. The NFHS provides district-level data on the percentage of children under 5 years of age who are stunted, wasted, severely wasted, and underweight. In this story, we look at some of the best and performing districts in each of these indicators which helps in understanding how the variance in performance is, compared to the national level figures. The data for this story has been taken from Dataful.
Stunting – 1 in 2 children were stunted in 17 districts
District-level data indicates that Mahe (Puducherry) and Kullu (Himachal Pradesh) recorded the largest increase in the share of stunted children, by nearly 17 percentage points between both surveys. Mumbai Suburban (Maharashtra) and Longding (Arunachal Pradesh) saw an increase of nearly 16 percentage points. Out of nearly 570 districts for which data is available from both surveys, around one-third had recorded an increase in the share of stunted children. Meanwhile, Bhopal (Madhya Pradesh) registered a decline from 47.6% to 19.9% during this period.
More than 50% of the children under 5 were stunted in 17 districts. Six of these were in Uttar Pradesh, 2 each in Jharkhand, Bihar, Meghalaya, and Gujarat, and one each from Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, and Karnataka. The highest share was in Jharkhand’s Pashchimi Singhbhum where more than 60% of the children were stunted. Only 3 districts recorded less than 15% of children in this category. These are Puri and Jagatsinghapur (Odisha) and Lower-Dibang-Valley (Arunachal Pradesh). About 30 districts recorded less than 20%, of which the majority were from Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, Manipur, and Odisha.
Wasting- Every other child in Karimganj is wasted
While 1 in 5 children under 5 years of age are wasted at the national level, district-level data indicates that in Karimganj (Assam), nearly every other child is wasted. In fact, the district, where this share was less than 18% when NFHS -4 was conducted has recorded an increase by more than 30 percentage points in the five years. The Dangs (Gujarat) also recorded more than 40%. Out of 14 districts where 1 in 3 children are wasted, 4 each were from Bihar and Gujarat, 3 from Maharashtra, 2 from Telangana, and 1 from Assam. Andhra Pradesh’s overall share of wasted children stood at 16.1%, less than the national value.
North-District (Sikkim) is the only place to have recorded less than 5% of children in this category. 16 districts recorded less than 8% of which the majority were from Northeastern states and Punjab.
Around 40% of the districts recorded an increase in the share of wasted children. Tehri Garhwal (Uttarakhand) saw a decline in wasted children by 34 percentage points. 10 other districts recorded a decline of more than 20 to 30 percentage points.
Severe Wasting – More than 20% children were severely wasted in 6 districts
Globally, at least 13.6 million children under the age of 5 suffer from severe wasting, which is responsible for 1 in 5 deaths among children under age 5, making it one of the top threats to child survival. A severely wasted child is up to 11 times more likely than a healthy child to die of common childhood illnesses such as pneumonia, the single largest infectious cause of death in children worldwide, according to UNICEF. Sadly, 7.7% of the children in India are severely wasted as per NFHS-5, up from 7.5% in NFHS-4.
Among districts, the prevalence varied from 0.5% in Mon (Nagaland) and 1% in (Ludhiana) to more than 30% in Karimganj (Assam). Apart from Karimganj, five districts reported a prevalence of more than 20%. These are Saraikela-Kharsawan (Jharkhand), The Dangs (Gujarat), Chandrapur and Nagpur (Maharashtra), and Sheohar (Bihar). 405 districts out of more than 700 for which data is available had a prevalence less than what is reported at the national level. Of the best performing 17 districts with a prevalence of 2% and below, 4 were from Odisha, 3 from Uttar Pradesh, and 2 from Punjab.
Nearly 49% of the districts saw an increase in the prevalence of severely wasted children. While Karimganj recorded an increase in prevalence by more than 24 percentage points, Sheohar reported an increase of more than 17 percentage points. 4 districts from Jammu and Kashmir, 2 each from Bihar and Uttar Pradesh also recorded a rise by more than 11 percentage points.
Underweight – 1 in 2 children were underweight in 12 districts
Pashchimi-Singhbhum (Jharkhand) which recorded the highest prevalence of stunted children also recorded the highest share of underweight children under five years of age. About 62% of the children there were underweight. The Dangs in Gujarat and Assam’s Karimganj were also among the districts with a high prevalence of underweight children. Out of the 12 districts that reported more than 50% prevalence, 5 were from Gujarat, and 2 were from Jharkhand.
While at the national level, about 1 in 3 children under five were underweight, in 3 districts of Arunachal Pradesh and South District of Sikkim, their share was only between 7 to 9%. In nearly 60% of the districts, the prevalence was less than that reported at the national level. Zunheboto (Nagaland) saw a rise in prevalence by nearly 31 percentage points between the two surveys while Dungarpur & Udaipur (Rajasthan), and Guna (Madhya Pradesh) saw a decline by more than 25 percentage points.
Data calls for localized approach to deal with malnutrition
There are many schemes being implemented by the Government of India like Anganwadi Services, Scheme for Adolescent Girls, and Pradhan Mantri Matru Vandana Yojana (PMMVY) under the Umbrella Integrated Child Development Services (ICDS) Scheme as direct targeted interventions to address the problem of malnutrition in the country. Children with Severe Acute Malnutrition are treated at the Nutrition Rehabilitation Centres established by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. However, the data calls for a localized approach to deal with the issue.

created: September 7, 2023


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Data: While Number of Accidents Due to ‘Structure Collapse’ Has Reduced, Incidents Involving Residential Structures Increased
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
April 3, 2023
The recent mishap at the Indore’s Shri Beleshwar Mahadev Jhulelal Temple resulted in many deaths. Data from the ADSI reports indicates that while the number of accidents due to ‘Collapse of Structure’ has decreased over the last 10 years, incidents involving residential dwellings have increased.
A recent mishap at Indore’s Shri Beleshwar Mahadev Jhulelal Temple has resulted in several fatalities leaving many others injured. As per the reports, the step wall’s roof and the floor of the temple caved in due to the weight of too many devotees who congregated for Ram Navami celebrations. The State government has ordered a probe into the mishap.
In this context, we look at the data relating to various accidents due to the collapse of a structure. The data is sourced from National Crime Records Bureau’s annual Accidental Deaths and Suicides in India (ADSI) report.
While incidents in Residential buildings have increased, there is decline in case of Commercial buildings
During 2021, there were 1576 recorded accidents due to the collapse of a structure. The numbers over the 10-year period (2012 to 2021) indicate a varying trend. At the beginning of the said period, the number of such accidents was higher with 2764 & 3074 in 2012 and 2013 respectively. Since then, there is a decline in the number of such accidents reported in the ADSI report.
A major share of these accidents is related to those due to the collapse of a residential dwelling. In 2021, accidents involving residential places formed 73% of the total accidents due to the collapse of structures. Over the 10-year period, there is an increase in the share of accidents involving residential places. In 2012, they contributed to around 54% of the accidents due to the collapse of structures.
Meanwhile, the number of accidents involving commercial buildings has reduced. The decline was evident in 2014, wherein there were 41 accidents in commercial buildings compared to 424 in 2013. While any specific change in the methodology of recording the accidents is not mentioned in the report, it ought to be noted that the new proforma for Data collection for the ADSI report was introduced in the year 2014.
There is also a fall in the number of these accidents categorized as ‘other’. In 2014, the number fell to 790 compared to 1623 in 2013. Since then, there has been a steady decline in the number of accidents categorized as other. The structures which are categorized as ‘other’ is ambiguous.
Comparatively, the number of accidents relating to the collapse of a Dam or Bridge is much lower.
The average of Persons injured per accident has declined over the years
A total of 166 persons were injured across the 1576 accidents due to the collapse of structures in 2021. In line with the decline in the number of accidents, there is also a decline in the number of persons injured in these accidents. Apart from the decline in the total number of those injured, there is also a fall in the average number of persons injured per accident. In 2012, the average of persons injured per accident was around 0.31, this has reduced over the years and fell to around 0.11 in 2021.
This decline can be seen across nearly all the different types of structure collapses. Residential structures which have the highest number of accidents have reported the highest number of people injured. A total of 121 people were injured in these accidents in 2021. Over the 10-year period, the is a decline in the number of people injured in residential building collapses. The average also fell from 0.31 persons per accident in 2012 to around 0.1 in 2021.
The same is the case with other structures. In the case of structures like Dams and Bridges, wherein the number of accidents is very low, there are cases of singular larger incidents which have contributed to a higher number of injuries in specific years.
Higher fatalities than injuries in the accidents relating to collapse of structures
Accidents related to structural collapses have resulted in a greater number of deaths than the number of people injured. In 2021, a total of 1,536 people died in various structural collapses. Over the years, the number of deaths due to these incidents has decreased. However, there is an increase in the average number of deaths per accident.
In 2012, the average number of deaths per accident relating to the collapse of structures was 0.97 which increased slightly to 1.03 deaths in 2021. In line with the increasing trend in the number of accidents in residential buildings, the number of deaths due to the collapse of residential buildings has also increased. In 2012, the number of deaths was 865, while in 2021 it was 1198. However, the average fatality has largely remained unchanged. In the case of commercial buildings, the trends in average deaths were inconsistent. The increase in the overall average deaths can be attributed to the deaths under the head ‘Others’. Hence, the exact nature of structures that could have contributed to the increased average is not known.
Higher incidence of deaths among Males compared to females
Among the deaths caused due to structure collapse, the higher proportion are males. Out of 1630 deaths in 2021, 1116 i.e., around 68% are males.  This is the least in the 10-year period of 2012-21. The highest proportion of male deaths was during 2016-18, where the share of males among the fatalities was 73-74%. In the other years, the share is around 71%.
Across different structure types, the proportion of males’ deaths remains to be higher. Among the residential structure collapses, deaths of males are around 66-68% across the years.  In the case of the structures classified as ‘Others”, the share of males among deaths increased to around 77%.
While the number of reported incidents has reduced, the impact of the accident has not reduced
Except for residential structures, there is a fall in the number of accidents due to structural collapses. This is prominent in the case of commercial buildings as well as the structures categorized as others, whose specifics we do not know. Even the number of injured has reduced over the years. However, the same cannot be said about a fatality as it remains the same. While the reduction in numbers could point to improved preventive measures relating to structural integrity, there does not seem to be a visible improvement in case of reducing the impact or the loss following these accidents.
Featured Image: Number of Accidents Due to Structure Collapse


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Data: While Overall Ground Water Extraction Decreases Slightly, Situation in Some States is Dire
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
December 2, 2022
The latest edition of the ‘National Compilation on Dynamic Ground Water Resources of India, 2022’ was released recently. While the stage of groundwater extraction nationally declined from 63% to 60% between 2017 & 2022, the situation is dire in a few states with the extraction crossing 120%.
‘Water is the driving force of all nature’, said Leonardo Da Vinci. In fact, we are all bodies of water. More than 60% of our bodies are made up of water. Water is the key to the survival of human life.
As the population of the world continues to explode, and as the requirement for a food system grows, the demand for water is expected to outstrip the supply. This puts immense pressure on the existing water resources in the world.  Charles Fishman, in his book, ‘The Big Thirst: The Secret Life and Turbulent Future of Water’ notes that, ‘we don’t have a good language for talking about water, we don’t have a politics of water, or an economics of water.”  This point holds true because water is often viewed as free, and a gift of nature. So, there is misuse, wastage, and defiling around it, until we reach a point of no return.
Even among the major sources of water, groundwater is less talked about, perhaps because of its invisibility to the naked eye. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) describes groundwater as the ‘invisible ingredient in our food’. In fact, the theme for World Water Day 2022 is ‘Groundwater: Making the invisible visible’.
In this context, we look at the assessment of groundwater resources in India. The latest edition of the ‘National Compilation on Dynamic Ground Water Resources of India, 2022’ had been released recently. This story looks at what it entails about the state of groundwater resources in India.
Assessment of Ground Water Resources in India
It is colloquially said that ‘what gets out of sight, gets out of mind’. The same is the case with groundwater, which is invisible. Nearly half of the freshwater supplies for the world are catered by Groundwater, yet the mismanagement of groundwater is rarely spoken about. For a country that is heavily dependent on agriculture like India, groundwater mismanagement is a concern. In certain regions of India, groundwater is being extracted at a rate higher than its annual replenishment due to the country’s growing water needs. A realistic and accurate evaluation of these resources aids in developing plans for the scientific management of groundwater resources.
The Ground Water Resource Assessment is jointly carried out by the Central Water Board and respective State/UT water departments. The outcomes of the assessments are principally summarised in terms of resource availability, utilisation, and classification of assessment units.
Earlier, such joint exercises were undertaken in 1980, 1995, 2004, 2009, 2011, 2013, 2017, and 2020. However, prior to the year 2017, assessments were conducted using the Ground Water Estimation Committee (GEC) 97 Methodology. Starting in 2017, assessments are based on the standards and criteria of the GEC 2015 Methodology. One must exercise caution in comparing the trends as there is a change in the assessment methodology.
State of Ground Water Resources in India
As noted earlier, the assessment provides details on resource availability and utilization. Below are a few key parameters that are assessed.
Total Annual Ground Water Recharge is defined as the sum of the recharge/accumulations during monsoons as well as non-monsoon seasons. This is computed for each sub-unit in the assessment units of the survey.
The Annual Extractable Ground Water Resource is calculated by deducing the Total Annual Natural Discharge from the Total Annual Ground Water Recharge.
The Annual Ground Water Extraction is computed by adding the groundwater extraction for irrigation, domestic purposes, and industrial uses.
The Stage of Ground Water Extraction is calculated as below.
The annual groundwater recharge available in India increased from 433 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2004 to 447 bcm in 2013, while the annual extractable groundwater resource increased from 399 bcm to 411 bcm in 2013. Complementing this rise is the annual groundwater extraction, which rose from 231 bcm in 2004 to 253 bcm in 2013. The stage of groundwater extraction rose from 58% to 62% during the same period.
From 2017 to 2022, the annual groundwater recharge available in India grew from 432 bcm to 438 bcm. Similarly, the annual extractable groundwater resource increased slightly from 393 bcm to 398 bcm, while the groundwater extraction annually reduced from 249 bcm to 239 bcm. The stage of groundwater extraction declined from 63% to 60% during the same period.
‘Over-exploited’ units declined from 2017 to 2022
The assessments also contain the details of the situation of each assessment unit based on the level of water availability and utilization. The 2022 report outlines the criteria for the categorization of assessment units as below.
The percentage of ‘safe’ units fell from 71% to 69% from 2004 to 2013, while the percentage of ‘over-exploited’ units rose from 15% to 16% during the same period. However, this trend reversed from 2017, when the percentage of ‘safe’ units rose from 63% in 2017 to 67% in 2022, while the ‘over-exploited’ units fell from 17% to 14% during the same period.
The percentage of semi-critical units fell from 14% to 12% from 2017 to 2022, while the percentage of critical units reduced slightly from 5% to 4% during the same period. The percentage of assessment units categorized as ‘saline’ increased from 0.5% in 2004 to 1.5% in 2013, thereafter which it further rose from 1.5% in 2017 to 2.2% in 2022.
Decline in Groundwater extraction for irrigation
The total groundwater extraction is calculated as the sum of groundwater extraction for irrigation, domestic purposes, and industrial uses. The data from 2004 to 2022 indicates that the percentage share of groundwater extraction for irrigation purposes declined from 92% to 87%, while for industrial and domestic purposes, the share increased from 8% to 13%.
Punjab, Rajasthan, and Haryana register high increase in ground water extraction
The groundwater conditions, availability and utilization scenario are different in different states. The performance of states also differs based on the measures taken by them in the preservation of groundwater. States like Punjab, Rajasthan, Haryana, and Madhya Pradesh have registered an increase in the stage of groundwater extraction, while states like Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, and Tamil Nadu have registered a decline in the stage of groundwater extraction. States with higher extraction rates must undertake significant groundwater management techniques before it becomes too late.
Way forward
Since water is a state subject, the state governments and UTs must enact legislation to regulate and develop groundwater. To help the States and Union Territories pass appropriate laws for the management and control of groundwater development, the Union Government has distributed a Model Bill to them. The bill was first circulated in 1970 and has since been reissued for enactment in 1992, 1996, and 2005. Another draft titled, ‘For the Conservation, Protection, Regulation and Management of Groundwater, 2016’ was circulated by the Ministry of Jal Shakti in 2016. A masterplan was also prepared to artificially recharge the groundwater in India in 2020. But not much progress has been made in these aspects.
There is an urgent need for the adoption of a law that oversees the conservation and regulation aspects of groundwater. Also, governments at all levels must enact a groundwater governance framework that encompasses the rules and guidelines on groundwater usage by different stakeholders. Robust Groundwater policies are the need of the hour.

created: December 2, 2022


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While Physical Infrastructure improves, Digital Infrastructure remains poor in Schools across States
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
July 10, 2021
The UDISE+ report for 2019-20 was released recently. Data from the report indicates that while physical infrastructure has improved in schools across states over the last few years, the status of digital infrastructure is poor. This assumes importance in the light of the shift to online education because of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The National Education Policy 2020 recognizes that ‘A good educational institution is one in which every student feels welcomed and cared for, where a safe and stimulating learning environment exists, where a wide range of learning experiences are offered, and where good physical infrastructure and appropriate resources conducive to learning are available to all students.’
The availability of infrastructure facilities in schools is widely understood to have a considerable impact on the school environment and it is one of the important indicators for accessing whether the schools are providing a conducive learning environment. It is in this context, we look at the trends in infrastructure indicators through the last few years, i.e., 2013-14, 2015-16, 2017-18 and 2019-20, collated from the UDISE reports. The UDISE+ report for the year 2019-20 was released recently.
UDISE (Unified District Information System for Education), first released by the Ministry of Education for the academic year 2012-13, is one of the largest Management Information Systems on school education. It covers more than 15 lakh schools, 85 lakh teachers and 25 crore school children. The UDISE data is also used for the calculation of various other parameters to measure school education levels, such as the Performance Grading Index that was released earlier in June 2021. UDISE+ is an improved version of UDISE and is now operational in all the districts of the country.
Overall physical Infrastructure shows positive signs of improvement.
According to the UDISE+ data for 2019-20, released by the Government of India (GoI),
There is a notable improvement in physical infrastructure facilities like hand-washing facilities and availability of electricity, among others.
Other facilities like playgrounds and libraries have not improved significantly compared to 2013-14.
Digital Infrastructure facilities not on par
While physical infrastructure facilities across schools have shown considerable signs of improvement in the last few years, Digital infrastructure facilities continue to be abysmally low, with only slight improvements over the years.
Facilities for Children with Special Needs (CWSN) like ramps and handrails remain low, despite slight improvements over the years.
Digital Infrastructure lowest in Northeastern states, Odisha, Bihar, West Bengal, highest in Kerala, Delhi, Gujarat
As seen in the earlier chart, the proportion of schools with internet facilities remains low at 22.3% in 2019-20, despite improvements in the previous years. In 2013-14, about 7.3% of schools had internet facility and in 2017-18, it was about 13.6%.
A majority of big and populous states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, among others perform very poorly on the digital infrastructure coverage in schools. In these states, less than half of the total schools have internet facilities.
Shortfalls in Budgetary Allocation and Fund Utilisations
There is evidence of significant shortfalls in budgetary funding and utilization in the education sector, which has resulted in critical infrastructure gaps in government schools. In its Report on the 2020-2021 Demand for Grants for School Education, the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Human Resource Development (HRD) expressed concern that budgetary allocations saw a 27% cut from proposals made by the Department of School Education & Literacy. Despite proposals for ₹ 82,570 crores, only ₹ 59,845 crores were allocated to the department.
The Committee takes note of the fact that though the Public Expenditure on education as a percentage of GDP is increasing over the years, however, the Committee was of the view that expenditure on education, especially School Education needs to be increased further and it should also be ensured that the funds allocated be utilized in a judicious and effective manner.
The Committee also took note of the scheme-wise break-up of the proposed and allocated Budget Estimates for the year 2020-21. It was noted that substantial reduction has been made in the Centrally Sponsored Schemes (27.4% reduction) and in the Central Sector Schemes, a reduction of 27.2% has been made.
The Committee expressed its concern at the slow progress of infrastructure work. The Committee also noted that the Department has not been able to utilize the funds allocated to some schemes, including the Mid Day Meal Scheme, construction of school buildings, science labs and other infrastructural requirements.
Taking note of the details about the state-wise figures provided regarding classrooms, laboratories, libraries, playground, toilets, and other facilities, the Committee has recommended the Department to undertake a study of the States which have done well in the creation and maintenance of school infrastructure within available resources and try to replicate the model at the Central level.
Ground realities of Digital Infrastructure in the light of COVID-19
In the light of the COVID-19 pandemic disrupting the formal schooling system across the world, there is an urgent need to revamp the state of digitalized education in India. A study by Observer Research Foundation (ORF) uses the case of Maharashtra to analyse the efforts at digitalizing government schools. It highlights systemic weaknesses in educators’ pedagogical capacities and calls for the creation of policies on online education that are context-specific.
The study takes note of the Ministry of Human Resource Development (MHRD)’s Alternative Academic Calendar for Students (AAC) guidelines on continuing formal school education in online mode in the 2020-21 academic year. The AACs are a set of four documents—one each for primary, upper primary, secondary, and higher secondary schooling—that outline measures for educators to ensure continuity in curriculum learning from the safety of students’ homes. In the backdrop of the pandemic, MHRD’s Central Institute of Educational Technology recommended that teachers use apps like DIKSHA, NISHTHA and ePathshala, which aim to provide training opportunities to educators. Teachers were also encouraged to form peer groups on WhatsApp to exchange information and knowledge.
The study reveals that while Maharashtra government undertook various online initiatives targeting the educator community, these initiatives did little to improve the pedagogical skills of teachers to use digital tools in the new academic year. A grounded picture of digital schools in Maharashtra suggests:
In the light of these ground realities, the study recommends, a clear focus on setting up detailed parameters regarding the quantity and quality of digital equipment and the requirement based on the number of students per class. The study also highlights other gaps in funding, infrastructure, teacher training, and digital content and provides recommendations to improve the digital education ecosystem.
Featured Image: Infrastructure in Schools


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While production has increased, exports of Maize & other Cereals still lower than in 2012-13
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
June 2, 2022
In the second part of this series on India’s foodgrain production & exports, we analyse data related to Maize, other Cereals & Pulses. Data indicates that while the production of Maize has significantly increased in the last 10 years, exports are still lower than in 2012-13.
In the first story of this two-part series, we analysed the trends in the production & export of Rice & Wheat.  In this second part, we look at the trends in the production and export of other food grains including Maize, Jowar, millets, pulses, etc.
As in the first story, the data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmer Welfare’s ‘Third Advance Estimates of Production of Food Grains’ in considered for food grain production numbers while we relied on the data available with APEDA (Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority) for the information related to exports of these food grains.
Around 50% increase in Annual Production of Maize during the 10-year period
Maize is the third-largest food grains crop grown in the country after rice & wheat. Globally, India ranks among the top-10 countries in the production of Maize and contributes to around 2% of the global production. India ranks among the top-5 in terms of the land utilized for the cultivation of maize with about 4% of the world’s area in maize production.
Within India, Maize accounts for approximately 2% of the total value of Agricultural crops output. The production of Maize is concentrated in a few states of India. The four states of Karnataka, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh & Madhya Pradesh constitute nearly half of the total area under maize production in the country.
In terms of production, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan & Bihar contribute to around 2/3 of the total maize production in the country. Over the past 10 years (2012-13 to 2021-22), there has been a fluctuating trend in the production of Maize. Multiple periods of increased production were interspersed with periods of fall in the production.
Over the past two years, there is a consistent growth in annual production.  In 2020-21, there was a 10% increase in the annual production of maize with 31.65 million Tonnes of production. For 2021-22, the target was set at 30.9 million tonnes. The third Advance estimates indicate production of 33.19 million tonnes, the highest during the 10-year period. Overall, during the 10-year period, the annual production of Maize increased from 22.26 million tonnes in 2012-13 to 33.18 million tonnes in 2021-22 i.e., an increase of roughly 50%.
While the overall production of Maize has increased, productivity remains a challenge compared to global standards. This is evident from the fact that India ranks 4 in the total land used for Maize but ranks around 7 in production volume. The average productivity in India is estimated at around 2.6 tonnes/hectare while in the USA, it is 10.7 and the global average is 5.6 tonnes/hectare.
Despite the increase in recent years, Maize exports are still lower than in 2012-13
India’s Maize exports form an insignificant share of the global exports. The USA is the World’s largest exporter and contributes around 40% of the Global Exports. Within India, a significant part i.e., 2/3 of the production of Maize is consumed domestically. Around 60% of the consumption is in the form of feed for Poultry & Livestock.
The quality of Maize being produced vis-a-vis international standards and the prices being higher than the international rate are some of the challenges with the export of Maize. Nevertheless, India exports Maize to around 60 countries with a steady increase in the number of countries in recent years.
A major chunk of the exports is to Bangladesh, Nepal, and a few South-East Asian countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand, Myanmar, etc. In 2020-21, 54% of India’s export of Maize was to Bangladesh. In that year, India exported 2.87 million tonnes of Maize, worth 0.63 billion USD. As per information on APEDA, India has exported 3.42 million tonnes during the first 11 months (April-February) of 2021-22, worth 0.93 billion USD.
While there is an increasing trend in the last two years, both the volume & value of exports are still lower than in 2012-13. In 2012-13, a total of 4.78 million tonnes of maize was exported, worth 1.31 billion USD. Since then, the exports have remained low until the recent two years.
A significant drop in the Exports of Other Cereals over the last few years
Apart from the three major cereals of Rice, Wheat & Maize, India also produces a few other cereals in sizeable volumes. Most of these cereals are less water-intensive crops and are referred to as dryland crops since they can be grown in areas with even 50-100 cm rainfall. They are also less sensitive to soil deficiencies and can grow in inferior soils.
A major category of these other cereals includes Millets, also referred to as Nutri-Cereals. These include Jowar, Bajra, Ragi & other minor millets. Barley is one of the other cereals which is categorized as coarse cereal along with Maize.
The third advanced estimates for 2022-23 indicate that the production could miss the initial targets across all these cereals. Here is a snapshot of the production trends of these other Cereals.
While the production trends have fluctuated over the years for these other cereals, the trends in export show a distinct fall.  APEDA categorizes all cereals other than Rice, Wheat, Maize, etc. under a single head “Other Cereals”.  During 2012-13, 0.65 million tonnes of ‘Other Cereals’ were exported. It remained nearly the same in the next two years. However, there was a major fall in 2015-16 to 0.26 million tonnes, which continued to decline barring an exception in 2018-19 with 0.22 million tonnes. The exports for the first 11 months of 2021-22 are at 0.14 million tonnes.
UAE, Nepal & Saudi Arabia are the major export destinations for these other cereals. The fall in the volume of exports to these countries is reflected in the overall fall in exports of other cereals. Iran & Jordan were among the countries to whom a major portion was exported prior to 2015-16.
Production of Pulses increased by more than 50% in the last 10 years
A few of the major Pulses produced in India include Tur, Urad, Moong, Gram, Lentil, etc. In 2020-21, 25.46 million tonnes of pulses were produced in the country. The third advance estimates peg the annual production of pulses to cross the target of 25 million tonnes with an estimated 27.76 million tonnes.
Over the 10-year period (2012-13 to 2021-22), there has been an increase in the annual production of the pulses by about 51%.  During this period, the first major growth was witnessed in 2016-17 when 23.13 million tonnes were produced compared to 16.32 tonnes in the previous year. The increase can be attributed to an increase in the production of Gram & Tur dal. In the subsequent years, while the production of Tur Dal has remained constant at this level, the production of Gram has recorded a year-on-year increase, barring an exception in 2018-19.
India is the largest producer of Pulses in the world. Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, UP & Karnataka are the top-5 pulse-producing states. However, India also happens to be the largest consumer of pulses in the world. While India contributes to 25% of the global production of pulses, its share of global consumption of pulses is 27%.
In fact, India compensates for its demand for pulses through imports. India is also the largest importer of pulses with 14% of the global imports. This is also reflected in the lower share of exports of pulses compared to the production in the country.
A total of 0.29 million tonnes of pulses worth 0.28 billion USD were exported in 2020-21. The exports during the first 11 months of 2021-22 are already at 0.36 million tonnes, the highest in the past 10 years. The USA, China, Nepal & UAE are the leading export destinations for pulses in India.
Featured Image: India’s food grain production & exports


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Data: While the Average Number of Cases Received by CVC reduced in the last decade, Complaints under PIDPI Resolution Increase
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
October 20, 2023
The Central Vigilance Commission is the foremost guardian of integrity and transparency in the Indian government and receives cases or complaints involving absence of probity and integrity in administration. Data indicates that while the average number of cases received by the CVC fell in the last decade, the number of complaints received under the ‘Public Interest Disclosure and Protection of Informers’ Resolution increased.
The Central Vigilance Commission (CVC), as the foremost guardian of integrity and transparency in the Indian government, is committed to upholding a vigilant, ethical, and responsive system of governance. A crucial aspect of the Central Vigilance Commission’s responsibilities involves receiving corruption complaints from the public, scrutinizing these complaints, and then advising relevant agencies to investigate and act based on the legitimacy of the allegations. The Commission employs a multifaceted strategy to combat corruption, which includes preventive, punitive, and participatory vigilance measures.
In this first part of the series on CVC’s statistics on complaints, disposals, and punishments, we look at the types of complaints filed with the commission and the trends related to it.  In the next story, the focus is on the Chief Vigilance Officers (CVOs) and their working statistics.
Note: This story is limited to the complaints received by the commission only and actions taken by it on the complaints.
How CVC works?
One of the reasons behind the establishment of CVC is the lack of common standards in deciding cases involving the absence of probity and integrity in administration. The Commission has only specified jurisdiction and has no jurisdiction over private individuals and State Governments.
CVC as an organization receives complaints over multiple modes/channels.
The Chief Vigilance Officer (CVO) leads the Vigilance Division within the organization and serves as an advisor to the chief executive regarding all vigilance-related issues. Additionally, they establish a connection between their organization and both the CVC as well as the Central Bureau of Investigation, facilitating communication and coordination.
Once the commission receives the complaint, it may take any of the following actions.
Further, unless specifically filed under whistle-blower protection, the Commission does not entertain anonymous or pseudonymous complaints. Any complaint without verifiable facts, factual details and vague allegations will not be acted upon.
Gradual decline in the vigilance cases received by commission in recent years.
The Commission reviews numerous vigilance cases resulting from investigations carried out by the Chief Vigilance Officer (CVO) or the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) to provide guidance. This consultation can occur at two stages: first, to begin criminal and/or departmental actions, and second, to decide on imposing significant or minor penalties following departmental procedures.
Over the years, the number of cases received in the Commission for obtaining its advice has been on a decline. Between 1991-2000, an average of 4635 cases were received by the commission, out of which 4555 were disposed of. From 2001-10, the average number of cases received rose to 5718, while the disposal has been around 5716. Between 2011-2022, the average number of cases received fell to 4093, while the disposal was 3877, both falling by almost 30%.
The disposed cases include cases disposed of by the Commission as first-stage and second-stage advice and also reconsideration requests.
Only a miniscule percentage of general complaints are actually sent for further investigations.
Due to the public’s high expectations of the Commission, the Commission receives a growing number of complaints. These complaints come to the Central Vigilance Commission in various ways: people send them by mail, use the complaint submission tools on the Commission’s website, or make use of the toll-free number provided by the Commission.
It is observed that a majority of the complaints filed with the Commission are anonymous/pseudonymous in nature. As a general policy in CVC, anonymous/pseudonymous complaints are not entertained. Furthermore, many complaints have vague or unverifiable allegations and are also out of the scope of the jurisdiction of CVC.  As a result, a very small proportion of complaints actually are found serious enough to warrant further follow-up at the Commission’s end.
Complaints under PIDPI on a rise
For handling complaints from whistle-blowers, the Government of India designated the Central Vigilance Commission as a nodal agency, under the “Public Interest Disclosure and Protection of Informers” Resolution (PIDPI) in 2004. Further, CVC is entrusted with the responsibility of protecting the identity of the complainant.
The data on the number of complaints under PIDPI resolution show that there is a rise in the number of complaints over the past two decades. The average number of complaints from 2004 to 2013 stood at 516, while the average number of complaints from 2014 to 2022 rose to 940, accounting for almost 80% rise. The average disposals of complaints stood at 489 and 907 respectively.
Interestingly, the share of the complaints that are forwarded to CVO/CBI for further investigation fell from almost 50% in 2004 to 13% in 2022.
A shift towards major penalty can be observed in punishments of public servants.
Once the complaint is acted upon by the commission, and based on its recommendations, authorities with the necessary authority in different organizations authorize legal actions against public servants and enforce penalties on them. Three different kinds of punishments are usually awarded – major penalty, minor penalty, and administrative action. Major penalties include dismissal, removal, and compulsory retirement.
The number of prosecutions sanctioned rose from 9 in 1990 to 248 in 2021, the second highest after 262 in 2010 in the past three decades. In 2022, around 220 prosecutions were sanctioned against public servants. It is also evident that there is a shift from minor penalties and administrative actions towards major penalties. The share of major penalties out of the total punishments was 33% in 1990, which then rose to 55% in 2021, thereafter falling to 42% in 2022. Similarly, the share of minor penalties fell from 45% to 33% between 1990 and 2021, and the proportion of administrative action fell from 23% to 12% during the same period.
Featured Image: Central Vigilance Commission

created: October 20, 2023


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While conviction rate under COTPA & Noise Pollution is more than 99%, pendency rate of Courts increases
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
March 29, 2022
In the earlier story, it was observed that there is a significant increase in the number of cases registered under COTPA in the year 2020. Data indicates that while the conviction rate for cases under COTPA & Noise Pollution Acts have been more than 99%, the court pendency rate has increased in 2020.
In the earlier story, we had highlighted that the increase in the number of registered cases related to Environment-related Acts in 2020 was mainly due to the increase in the number of cases reported under COTPA i.e., The Cigarette and Other Tobacco Products Act.
While the number of cases reported under ‘The Environment Protection Act’ has also increased, there is a fall in the number of cases reported under other acts related to environmental offences like – the Noise Pollution Act, Forest Act, Wildlife Protection Act, etc. While COVID-19 related regulations are cited as one of the reasons for the increase in the number of cases under COTPA, environment-related experts have also suggested that inconsistencies in reporting could also be one of the reasons for the uneven trends.
While the number of cases registered could point us to a broad trend, disposal of these cases by the police and the courts presents a more complete picture of the efficacy of these laws and their enforcement by the relevant agencies.
In this story, we look at the status of police & court disposal of the cases related to some of the important acts relating to environmental offences.
In COTPA related cases, the increase in new cases has resulted in a fall in the Court disposal rate
Out of the 55.25 thousand cases related to COTPA investigated by the police in 2020, chargesheet was filed for 41.8 thousand cases and sent to the courts for trial i.e., around 76% of the cases up for investigation in the year were charge-sheeted by the police. Another 13.4 thousand cases were pending investigation by the end of the year i.e., 24% pendency rate.
The unusual increase in the number of new cases in 2020 meant that the police disposal rate went below 80% in the year 2020. In 2019, police charge-sheeted 80% of the cases up for investigation, while in 2018 it was 83%. However, in terms of volume, the number of cases charge-sheeted by police almost doubled in 2020 with 41.8 thousand cases resulting in a chargesheet compared to that of 21.8 thousand cases in 2019. Hence, while the disposal rate has reduced slightly, the police were able to match up and chargesheet a significantly greater number of cases in 2020. For comparison, 70% of the total cases filed under ‘State & Other Local Laws’ (SLL) that were up for investigation in 2020 were charge-sheeted.
In the year 2020, the final report was filed in only 18 cases i.e., cases closed by the police.
The increase in the number of new COTPA related cases up for trial in 2020 has affected the disposal rate of courts. The number of cases up for trial in courts increased to 62.8 thousand in 2020 compared to 41.7 thousand in 2019.
The number of cases disposed by the courts reduced from 20.7 thousand in 2019 to 17.32 thousand in 2020. The number of pending cases increased from 21 thousand by the end of 2019 to 45.5 thousand by the end of 2020. The number of pending cases in the courts by the end of 2020, accounted for 72% of the cases up for trial in the year. In 2019, the pendency was only about 50%. The comparatively higher pendency rate in courts in 2020 for COTPA related cases is still lower than the overall pendency rate of SLL related crimes which is around 91% by the end of 2020.
Among the cases that were disposed by the courts, most of them are convictions. In 2020, 17,208 i.e., 99.5% of the 17,323 cases disposed by courts resulted in convictions. Discharge or acquittals were only in 91 cases.
There are cases in which the court denied the bail application in cases related to COTPA. For instance, in the case of Francis Xavier vs. State, the police arrested the accused of transporting 9 bags of banned products weighing 505 kgs under COTPA. The auto and the contraband were seized, and a case was filed. The court deemed that the accusations were of serious nature and dismissed the bail petition filed by the accused.
In another case, the court intervened in a case dealing with the applicability of COTPA during the COVID-19 lockdown. Police made the arrest for transporting a consignment of cigarettes during the lockdown and without permission. The court held that since transportation without permission is not legal, the accused can be punished. However, the court also said that since the transportation of the cigarettes was part of a legal deal, the consignment cannot be withheld.
A review of the pending COTPA related cases shows that most of the cases are pending since the parties involved in the case did not appear and the court had to adjourn the case.  The increase in the number of pending cases during 2020 has to be viewed in the context of the overall increase in the volume of cases as well as the challenges faced by the courts in the conduct of normal operations during the pandemic.
While the pendency rate for cases related to Noise Pollution Acts increases, it is still better than overall SLL crimes
Cases related to ‘Noise Pollution Acts’ are the most in number after COTPA related cases among those related to environmental offences.
Unlike COTPA, the number of new cases in 2020 that were filed under the various ‘Noise Pollution Acts’ was less than that of the previous years. But the trend in police and court disposal of cases showed a similar trend to COTPA where the police disposal rate has comparably improved over the years, while the pendency in courts has increased.
However, just as in the case of COTPA, the pendency rate of cases both at police & the courts is lower than the overall pendency of SLL related crimes.
Significantly, not a single case was pending investigation with the police by the end of 2019 as well as 2020. Chargesheet was filed in most of the cases and they were sent for trial in courts.
As far as courts are considered, in 2020, there were 13.42 thousand cases related to ‘Noise pollution acts’ that were up for trial in courts. Of these, 6.1 thousand cases were disposed by the courts with 6064 convictions (more than 99% conviction rate). A total of 54% of the cases up for trial are pending with the courts by the end of 2020. This is higher than 43% pendency rate by the end of 2019. As highlighted, despite the increase in pendency rate in courts for ‘Noise Pollution Acts’ related cases, it is still much lower than the overall pendency rate in courts for SLL related crimes, which is around 91%.
97% pendency in courts in ‘Environment Protection Act’ related offences
Compared to cases under COTPA & Noise pollution-related acts, the number of cases reported under ‘The Environment Protection Act’ is fewer. In the earlier story, we have highlighted that the number of new cases under the ‘Environment Protection Act’ has comparatively increased in 2019 & 2020.
Even before this increase, there is a significantly higher pendency rate in the courts for cases related to ‘The environment protection Act’.
The pendency rate with the police for this act is much lower compared to the overall pendency of SLL crimes. Even in 2020 when the number of new cases registered under this act increased, the police disposed most of them. The pendency rate with the police by the end of 2020 was just about 20% which is in fact lower than in previous years.
The real challenge lies with the courts. In 2020, out of the 1818 cases that were up for a trial, only 32 were disposed by courts, with 98% pending. The increase in the number of cases is not the only reason as the pendency was high even in previous years.
The same trend is observed even in the case of other environment-related acts. Around 95% of the cases are pending trial under ‘Wildlife Protection Act’ by the end of 2020. 90% of the cases under trial related to ‘The Forest Act’ & ‘The Forest Conservation Act’ are pending. The trend has been similar even in earlier years.
Featured Image: Conviction rate under COTPA & Noise Pollution


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While number of ‘Crimes against Women’ decrease, cyber crimes against women increase by 44% in 2020
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
September 28, 2021
The number of registered instances of ‘Crime against Women’ decreased in 2020. A similar trend was visible across most crimes against women and most states except for a few. However, the number of cyber crimes against women increased by around 44% in 2020.
In an earlier story, we reviewed the trends in ‘Crime Rate’ (CR) for 2020, based on NCRB’s Crime in India Report – 2020.  While there was an increase in the Overall CR, it is mainly because of the increase in offences related to COVID-19 lockdown-related enforcements and crimes that are categorized as “Other” in the NCRB report.
Comparatively, many of the more traditionally important crimes saw a decline in reporting and hence a lower CR during 2020. On similar lines, in the earlier story, we observed that while the national CR related to ‘Assault on Women’ reduced in 2020, the trend is not uniform across all the states. In a few of the states, the CR relating to ‘Assault on Women’ has increased.
In this story, we look at the trends in the ‘Crimes against Women’ in 2020 and evaluate the possible impact of COVID-19 related lock downs & other measures on these crimes.
West Bengal, Odisha, Uttarakhand are among the states with an increase in Crime Rate for ‘Crimes against Women’
As per NCRB’s CII 2020 report, the CR of ‘Crimes against Women’ for 2020 was 56.5 (per lakh population), lower than the CR in 2019, when it was 62.4 per lakh population.  This trend of lower CR for ‘Crimes against Women’ is visible across most of the states except for a few.
The CR trend for specific crimes however varies based on the crime. Here is a look at trends for a few of the major crimes against women.
Kerala, Punjab & Delhi – the major contributors towards a decline in the Crime rate of Rapes in 2020
The total number of registered rape cases in 2020 was 26.7 thousand, down from 30.6 thousand registered in 2019. This decrease is also reflected in the CR, which was 4.3 in 2020 compared to 4.9 in 2019.
Except for Chhattisgarh, most of the larger states reported a decline in CR in the case of rape. Bihar, West Bengal, Sikkim along with J&K reported a slight increase. In the rest of the States & UTs, there has been a decline in the CR for Rapes in 2020 compared to 2019. The decline is prominent in three states – Kerala, Punjab & Delhi.
In contrast, the incidence of rape cases in Chhattisgarh increased from 1.03 thousand in 2019 to 1.2 thousand in 2020, with a corresponding increase in CR from 7.2 in 2019 to 8.3 in 2020.
Rajasthan & UP which are among the states with a higher incidence of Rape cases has reported a slight fall in the number of registered cases of rape.
While the impact of COVID-19 & lockdown is visible from the fall in the cases of rape reported in those three states, it ought to be noted that the numbers in the NCRB represent the number of crimes reported to the police and not the actual incidence of crime.  In the case of states like Kerala, the higher numbers are often attributed to better reporting in the state.
The reasons for the fall in crime rate in the case of rapes are not known- if it is due to the reduced cases due to lockdown measures or due to reduced reporting because of the lockdown and inaccessibility of the law enforcement agencies.
Increase in Cyber Crimes against women in 2020
In 2020, the total number of registered Cyber Crimes against women was 2.3 thousand compared to 1.6 thousand reported in 2019. The crime rate also doubled from 0.2 in 2019 to 0.4 per lakh population in 2020.
Close to 70% of the Cyber Crimes against women relate to ‘Publishing of Transmitting of Sexually Explicit Material.’ In the case of Assam & Odisha, there is a higher incidence of other cyber crimes like – blackmailing, defamation, morphing, fake profile, etc.
Increase in the Crime rate for ‘Child Rape’ in 2020, especially in Kerala
The overall CR in the case of ‘Sexual offences against girl child’ has marginally reduced from 7.1 in 2019 to 7 in 2020.  However, there is an increase in the CR and incidence of Child Rape (girl Child) in 2020. The crime rate for Child Rape increased from 4.0 in 2019 to 4.2 per lakh population in 2020. This increase is largely driven by the increase in the CR of such cases in Kerala. In 2019, the incidence of crime under this category was 67 and the crime rate was 0.4 per lakh population. However, in 2020, there is an increase in the incidence of Crime reported to 1.2 thousand cases and an increase of the crime rate to 6.8 per lakh population. In other words, the total number of registered cases of ‘child rape’ increased by almost 17 times in Kerala between 2019 & 2020.
Uttarakhand & Tamil Nadu have also reported a comparatively higher number of cases in 2020 than in 2019. The other major states to report an increase in 2020 compared to 2019 include – Tamil Nadu, Jharkhand, Telangana, Gujarat, etc.
Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh & Maharashtra reported a lower number of child rape cases compared to 2019 but continue to report higher numbers than other states in 2020.
Crimes rates for traditionally prominent crimes against women saw a decline in 2020
In the earlier story, we had highlighted that while the CR for ‘Assault on Women’ has marginally declined, there were variations across the states. NCRB data also shows that there is a decline in other traditionally prominent crimes against women during the year 2020.
Overall, the crime rate for most of the crimes against women has reduced in 2020, not only at the national level but also across some of the large states while there are certain exceptions like Cybercrimes.
As highlighted earlier in the story, it is not clear if the fall in the crime rate is due to an actual reduction in the incidence of crimes against women because of lockdowns and other related measures.
Featured Image: Crimes against Women in 2020

created: September 28, 2021


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While number of daily cases increase across globe,daily deaths due to COVID-19 decrease
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
June 30, 2020
While the number of new COVID-19 cases reported daily across the globe increases with every passing day, the number of daily deaths has decreased. We look at the data to see if there are any definite trends.
In December 2019, the first case of COVID-19 was reported in the Wuhan province in China. Since then, the viral respiratory infection has spread rapidly to all parts of the world, pushing countries to take strict measures such as lockdowns. The number of persons infected has been on a rise and is close to the one crore mark, while the number of deaths due to the pandemic is close to 5 Lakh as on 28 June 2020. The WHO has repeatedly asked countries to carry out widespread testing, and also adopt measures such as case finding, isolation, contact tracing, and respectful care. Research is still ongoing about the virus while efforts are on to find a vaccine.
About the data used in this story: Data used in this story is the seven-day moving average so as to adjust the stark variations in data reported each day. There can be variations in the time of reporting across countries, administrative delays, etc., which could impact the data. The data has been taken from ourworldindata.org website. Further, comparison of country wise data is purely based on data reported by these respective countries. It has to noted that the data reported by each country is dependent on multiple factors including testing strategies.
Number of cases reported daily is on the rise
The WHO declared COVID-19 a global pandemic on 11 March 2020. By then, over 1.2 lakh people were infected and 4,293 lives were claimed as per official data. However, the number of confirmed cases has been steadily rising as the virus is highly contagious. It took 68 days from 31 December 2019, for the number of cases to cross one lakh. The rate has increased substantially ever since. Globally, it took 12 days for the total number of cases to cross 2 lakh, and just 5 days to cross the three-lakh mark. Towards the end of May, one lakh cases were getting reported on a daily basis. The number of confirmed cases reported each day globally from 1 March 2020 to 26 June 2020 is represented in the following chart. On 26 June 2020 alone, more than 1.5 lakh cases were reported. The increase in numbers is also due to the increased testing across countries.
Daily deaths due to COVID-19 have decreased
While the number of daily new cases is on a continuous rise,  the number of daily deaths due to COVID-19 shows a contrasting trend. The total number of deaths crossed one lakh in 102 days  after 31 December 2019, from when the data is being reported daily by the WHO. It took around 16 days for the total deaths to touch 2 lakh, 19 days to cross 3 lakh, 24 days to cross 4 lakh deaths. The number of deaths reported daily witnessed a peak in mid-April. At the peak, over 7,500 lives were claimed by the pandemic every day, as per WHO data. Since then, this number has reduced to almost half the peak of around 3,829 deaths a day by end of May. However, the number has since increased again. Currently, between 4500 and 5000 deaths are reported every day from across the world, much less than the peak witnessed in mid-April. The difference in the daily trend of new cases and deaths is clearly visible.
US and Iran are witnessing a second wave while cases keep rising in India and Brazil
Brazil, India, Iran, Italy, UK, and US are some of the worst affected countries in terms of number of people who contracted the disease. Most of these countries have long crossed the number of cases reported in China earlier.  Brazil and India are recording higher number of cases each day whereas Italy and UK have managed to ‘flatten the curve’. At the same time, in USA and Iran, the number of cases reported increased initially and then came down gradually. However, both the countries are currently witnessing a second peak of infection and are reporting record number of new cases daily.
Fatality rate in India is the least among the six worst affected countries
While India & Brazil are reporting an increased number of cases every day, the case fatality rates in these two countries is lower than that in the rest. The case fatality rate in India is the least among these countries and is around 3.1% while that in Italy and UK is more than 14%. Brazil’s fatality rate is 4.7% while that in US is more than 5%. Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is defined as number of deaths divided by the total number of cases.
Italy which has a high CFR, reported more than 800 deaths daily in the beginning of April. But the number has fallen substantially since then. A similar trend is observed in the UK too, though the peak was recorded in the latter half of April.
Number of deaths reported daily in US and Iran is lower than before
US witnessed a peak in number of daily deaths around mid-April while the peak was in late-March in Iran. The number of daily deaths decreased after the peak with both US and Iran reporting fewer deaths now even though the number of new daily cases is increasing.
Health infrastructure such as bed availability, protection kits, etc. in has improved in most countries in last few months. Multiple drugs/medicines used for other illnesses are now being used in specific COVID-19 cases. All this may be contributing to fewer deaths compared to the last few months.
The official data on daily cases does not reflect the actual infection rate
The data reported by various countries is a severe under-estimate of the actual infection rate. This is because of testing strategy followed by various countries where only symptomatic and the direct contacts of infected persons are tested. Sero-surveys and antibody tests in various countries have confirmed this. Antibodies study from Spain indicated that the actual infection rate could be 10 times the officially reported number. Even the CDC of USA has stated that the original number of cases can be ten times the reported ones in US. Even in India, the sero-surveys commissioned by ICMR indicate an infection rate anywhere from 1%. Similar surveys indicated an infection rate of around 14% in Kolkata. All this could mean that the fatality rates across the world could be much lower since the actual infection rates are almost 10 times the reported number.  However, there are complaints that the deaths due to COVID-19 are also being under-reported, especially in countries with very high number of cases.
Some Italian doctors and scientists claim that the coronavirus is losing its potency
Scientists have reportedly claimed that the virus is losing its virulence. According to the New York Post, Dr. Matteo Bassetti, an Italian infectious diseases doctor said that the virus seems to have become less potent, possibly due to genetic mutations. He added that, in March and early April, people came to hospitals with severe illness and required oxygen and ventilator, while some developed pneumonia. However, since April, the doctor claimed that even elderly patients are sitting up in beds and breathing without any help. According to him, mutation is the response of the virus to social distancing measures and the use of masks. Eventually, it is possible that the virus will be eradicated before researchers find a vaccine.
WHO brushed of the claim stating it lacked scientific evidence
Even though studies suggest that pathogenicity of viruses weaken with mutations, it has not been proved in the case of SARS- COV- 2, the virus causing COVID-19. WHO has stated that there is no data to show that the virus is weakening. Further, they mentioned that the scientist’s claim lacked scientific evidence, and that the disease is still fatal since there has been no change in terms of transmissibility or severity of the coronavirus. The virus needs to be respected & feared since there is no vaccine and it is very contagious. For now, the most efficient way to tackle the pandemic is by practicing social distancing, wearing masks, practicing respiratory hygiene, and washing hands regularly.