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COVID-19: Aspidosperma-Q is not a substitute for Medical Oxygen - FACTLY
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
April 30, 2021
A video accompanying a post that describes the usage of homeopathic medicine, Aspidosperma-Q is being widely shared on social media. The person in the video claims that Aspidosperma-Q immediately increases the oxygen saturation levels in a COVID-19 patient. Let us fact-check the claim made in the post and can be used in case of patients whose saturation levels are falling.
Claim: Aspidosperma-Q immediately increases and maintains the oxygen saturation levels of a COVID-19 patient.
Fact: Aspidosperma-Q is a homeopathic medicine. The science conducted on the medical benefits of Aspidosperma-Q is limited. There are very few studies and most of them have not been followed upon. There is no evidence to show that Aspidosperma-Q can be used as a treatment for abnormal oxygen levels in a COVID-19 patient or that it can be used as a substitute for medical oxygen. Hence the claim made in the post is MISLEADING.
The Central Council for Research in Homoeopathy (CCRH), an autonomous organisation under the Ministry of AYUSH, had released guidelines for Homoeopathy practitioners for treating COVID-19 patients in Home isolation. As of today, Aspidosperma-Q is not part of any of the guidelines issued by the ministry.
A news article claims that Dr. Muktinder Singh, Chairman of the Indian Institute of Homoeopathic Physicians (IIHP) scientific committee had categorically told that they do not have clinically verified data with COVID-19 cases to vouch for the efficacy of Aspidosperma. According to the article, he warned individuals and homeopathic practitioners not to promote such medicines on social media.
Even Health Desk (an initiative by Meedan), in its explainer regarding the claims made around Aspidosperma-Q, has mentioned that there is no sufficient evidence to prove that it can instantly improve oxygen levels.
PIB Fact Check posted on Twitter regarding the misleading claims around the usage of Aspidosperma-Q, a homoeopathic medicine for immediately and permanently maintaining the oxygen saturation levels in a COVID-19 patient. They have also confirmed that Aspidosperma-Q cannot be used as a substitute for maintaining the oxygen levels in a COVID-19 patient. Ministry of Ayush has also tweeted the same.
A case requiring #oxygen rehabilitation or medicinal support is solely dependent upon the discretion of the treating physician.
The public is warned not to #selfmedicate in critical conditions.
To sum it up, Aspidosperma-Q is not a substitute for medical oxygen. Using Aspidosperma-Q for immediate and permanent increase in oxygen saturation levels in COVID-19 patients is not recommended.
This story has been published as part of the Ekta News Coalition, a collaboration of six fact-checking organisations in India.


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COVID-19 Data: Different States, Different Trajectories
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
July 8, 2020
Analysis of the state-wise COVID-19 numbers indicates that the trends in states are varied.  Different states seem to be going in different trajectories compared to where they were a month ago. Here is a look at numbers from six states that contribute to more than 70% of India’s case load.
The prevalence of COVID-19 & the corresponding case numbers are varied across the country. As observed in an earlier story, while India’s Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is comparatively lower than most of the other countries which have a high prevalence of COVID-19 cases, it is not uniform across the country.
In this story, we dig deeper into the numbers reported by few select states that have either reported a high number of cases or displayed extreme trends over the past few weeks. We also correlate these numbers with the number of tests conducted and the number of positive cases.
The source of information is the data released by Ministry of Health & Family Welfare (MoHFW) as well as respective State governments. In order to minimize the impact of any extremities, 7-day moving average (up to 05 July 2020) is considered for analysis of all the parameters.
Maharashtra – CFR on the decline though the number of daily deaths increase
Maharashtra has reported the highest number of COVID-19 positive cases and accounts for nearly 30% of the total cases recorded in India. The total reported deaths due to COVID-19 in Maharashtra are around 9 thousand which is around 45% of the total COVID-19 related deaths in India.
Gujarat – Despite fewer daily deaths, CFR is the highest in the country
As on 05 July 2020, Gujarat has recorded 1925 COVID-19 related deaths out of the 35 thousand plus positive cases recorded as on that date.
Delhi – No Major increase in the number of New Cases despite significant increase in the number of tests
As per the information provided by Delhi State government, more than 20 thousand tests per day are being conducted since the beginning of July 2020. This is in line with the increasing trend of number of daily tests being conducted from the beginning of June.
Tamil Nadu – Though CFR is still low, it is slowly increasing
The number of new positive cases reported in Tamil Nadu on a daily basis is witnessing an increasing trend. On 01 June, Tamil Nadu reported more than 1 thousand new cases in a day, with the daily number increasing in the ensuing days.
Telangana – Significant increase in the number of new cases as CFR shows a downward trend
As on 05 July 2020, Telangana has conducted over 1.15 lakh tests which resulted in more than 22 thousand COVID-19 positive cases i.e. nearly 20% of the tested cases are positive. The number of tests being conducted have remained at around 3-4 thousand tests from mid-June to end of June. It has increased to more than 5-6 thousand tests per day from the beginning of July.
Karnataka- Increase in both the number of daily new cases and deaths
Similar to Telangana,  Karnataka has also witnessed a surge in the number of new cases being reported in the past 15-20 days.
Varied trends across the states
The trend in new cases &  daily deaths among the states with a large number of COVID-19 cases has shown wide variations. The only uniform trend across the states is that all of them have ramped up their testing numbers.
The variance in the trend is quite evident in certain states. While increase in the number of tests has resulted in increase in number of cases for states like Telangana, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, it does not have a similar effect on Delhi which is reporting fewer new cases as well as fewer deaths despite increased testing numbers.
In terms of the CFR,  both Karnataka & Tamil Nadu are witnessing an increasing CFR while Telangana which is also witnessing a surge in new cases managed to significantly decrease CFR.  Tamil Nadu appears to be at the cusp of increasing fatality rates despite one of the lowest CFR in the country in the earlier months.
These varying trends indicate that a one-size-fits-all uniform strategy may not work in a large country like India. State-specific strategies are the need of hour with special focus on the areas that the respective states lack in. There could be also be sharing of best practices where one state could learn from what others are doing well.
Featured Image: COVID-19 Data

source: news-factly

license: Creative Commons - Attribution - https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

author: Sai Krishna Muthyanolla


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COVID-19 Data: What is the trend of Recovery & Death Rate in India?
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
June 5, 2020
With considerable easing of lockdown restrictions, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in India is expected to increase exponentially in the coming days. However, the high recovery rate and low death rate may save the day for India.
As the central and state governments have relaxed the lockdown regulations, India is reporting a consistent increase in the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 with each passing week. As of 8 AM on 04 June 2020, almost 2.17 Lakh positive cases and 6,075 deaths have been reported in the country. On the positive side, more than one lakh, out of the 2.17 lakh cases, have recovered, as reported by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. Globally, more than 63.6 lakh cases have been reported along with 3.83 lakh deaths, according to the World Health Organization’s dashboard and India has the seventh highest number of confirmed cases.
India’s recovery rate stands at 48% and fatality rate has dropped to 2.8%
As of 04 June 2020,  India’s recovery rate is 48% and the fatality rate has dropped to 2.8%, which is much below the global fatality rate of 6%.
What has been the trend like in India’s recovery rate?
Though the overall recovery rate currently stands at 48%, it does not present the accurate picture of recovery rate in the country since the person tested positive is discharged from the hospital after around 14 days. Hence the following methodology was adopted to arrive at weekly recovery rates.
Methodology: Numbers as presented by the government at 8 AM every morning for the last 56 days (8 weeks), from 10 April to 4 June 2020, have been considered to calculate the weekly recovery rates. Since it is generally accepted that the incubation period of the virus is fourteen days,  we have assumed that a person is discharged from the hospital after about fourteen days from the time they tested positive for COVID-19. Thus, to calculate the recovery rate for any particular week, the total number of cases reported in the week 14 days prior to the current week is considered.
For instance, the total number of persons tested positive in the week from 10 April to 16 April is 6,646. After the incubation period of 14 days, between 24 April and 30 April, a total of 4,067 persons had recovered. Thus, out of the 6,646 persons who tested positive between 10 & 16 April, 4067 persons have recovered between 24 & 30 April, implying, 61.19% recovery. Hence the recovery rate in the week, 24 April to 30 April stands at 61.19%. The following table presents the week, total number of positive cases reported in the week 14 days prior, number of recovered cases in the week, and the recovery rate.
As can be observed, the weekly recovery rate has increased and stands at around 95% for the past few weeks. The recovery rate for the week (29 May – 04 June) is more than 100 because in Maharashtra, a large number of recoveries from previous week were clubbed and reported together in the week of 29 May – 04 June.
Weekly recovery rate currently at more than 95%
It is evident from the data that the recovery rate stood at 61.69% in week 1 of the period under consideration and increased to 77.02% in the subsequent week, and further increased to 94.08% and 95.79% in weeks, 3 and 4 respectively. This increase in recovery rate is also because, on 8 May 2020 (during week 3), the discharge policy was revised by the government. Earlier, any person tested positive, even if asymptomatic, had to be isolated and monitored in a medical facility for at least 14 days. The discharge would happen only after two successive negative results within 24 hours. Following the revision in discharge policy, those with mild or moderate symptoms can be discharged after ten days of symptoms onset without a RT-PCR Test, provided they do not have a fever for three days.
Fatality rate has also decreased continuously
Concomitantly, it can be observed that the fatality rate in the country has also decreased from 5.91% in week 1 to 4.49% in week 6. The case fatality rate for each week has been calculated as the percentage of deaths in that week as against the number of positive cases recorded in the week before 14 days. The weekly number of cases and deaths along with the case fatality rate for each week has been summarized in the table below.
Though there was a slight increase in the fatality rate in the week of (01-07 May), it has decreased ever since, implying that the steep increase in the number of cases has not resulted in an increase in fatality rate.
Fewer deaths in India than many other countries
To analyse where India stands globally in terms of fatality rate & deaths, the case fatality rate for each country  (Brazil, Italy, Russia, UK, and USA) was calculated when the number of reported cases was 50,000, 1 Lakh, 1.5 Lakhs, and 2 Lakhs in that country. The total number of deaths at each of these milestones is used for arriving at the fatality rate. The countries considered here are those which have been majorly affected by the virus. Number of deaths recorded in India is higher than that of only USA and Russia when the countries recorded close to 2 Lakh cases. UK had already recorded over 6,433 deaths at around 50,000 cases while India has recorded 5,598 deaths at 2 Lakh cases.
India’s case fatality rate has dropped gradually with increase in the number of cases
India’s fatality rate has reduced from 3.43% to 2.82% while the number of cases increased from around 50,000 to 2 Lakhs. Meanwhile, USA & Russia had slightly less fatality rate than India at the threshold of 2 lakh cases. While Russia’s fatality is below 1% throughout, USA’s fatality rate has increased from 1.27% to 2.15%, unlike India which has seen a decreasing rate. In fact, the current fatality rate in USA is more than 5.5%.
The fatality rate in Brazil has been consistently upwards of 6% all through. In UK and Italy, the fatality rate is very high, about four to six times that of India. Italy witnessed a surge in fatality from 8.57% to 13.53%, and UK’s rate went up to 15.93% in this period.
India took 97 days to record close to 50,000 cases and 13 days for 1 Lakh cases, the highest among these six countries. However, all the other countries reached 2 lakh confirmed cases in early May except India which touched 2 Lakh cases in June.
Huge increase in cases likely, but high recovery rate may save the day
With significant easing of lockdown restrictions, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in India may increase substantially in the coming weeks & months. While this increase is a cause for concern from a public health standpoint, the high recovery rates in the past weeks may save the day for India. Even if the confirmed cases go up considerably, more than 90% of those are expected to be mild.
Featured Image: COVID-19 cases in India


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COVID-19 fighter Vandana Tiwari died due to brain haemorrhage in MP, not due to an attack by Muslims in UP - FACTLY
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
April 10, 2020
An image of a woman lying on a hospital bed is being shared with the claim that Dr. Vandana Tiwari has died in the attacks of Muslims in UP when she went to screen them for COVID-19. ‘FACTLY’ has found that Vandana Tiwari, a pharmacist in Madhya Pradesh who had been working against the spread of COVID-19 in the state, had died due to brain haemorrhage. So, the claim that she had died in the attacks of Muslims in UP when she went to screen them for COVID-19 is false.
Sources:
Claim – Facebook post (archived)
Fact – https://www.bhopalsamachar.com/2020/04/dm-cm-mp-news.html
https://twitter.com/UPPViralCheck/status/1248237669991075841
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COVID-19 impact: Domestic Air Passenger traffic in November 2020 reached 50% of 2019 levels
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
January 12, 2021
With the consistent decrease in the number of COVID-19 cases, the economic & other activities are slowly getting back to pre-COVID levels in India. However, the recovery might take a greater amount of time in sectors like Aviation. While petrol & diesel consumption is back to pre-COVID levels, domestic air traffic is still only 50% of the pre-COVID levels.
After an initial spurt in the number of COVID-19 cases during March’2020, the Government of India announced a nation-wide lockdown from the midnight of 24 March 2020. The lockdown was extended multiple times until the end of May and unlocking of various activities was carried out in different phases over the ensuing months. The lockdown, social distancing norms along with the increasing COVID-19 cases had an impact on various aspects of day-day life.
Over the past couple of months, India has overcome the peak COVID-19 numbers with life slowly resuming back to normalcy. However, with the second wave of COVID-19 cases in Europe, the USA & other parts of the World, there are fears about a similar second wave in India.
But what has been the actual impact of COVID-19 on various sectors? Over a period of time, we had written multiple stories analysing the impact of COVID-19 on different sectors. As more than 9 months have passed since the initial lockdown, we review the impact of COVID-19. In this story, we take a look at the COVID-19 impact on petroleum products consumption as well as domestic air travel.
Consumption of Petrol & Diesel improve towards the end of 2020
With the fall in vehicular movement during the lockdown, the consumption of fuel, especially petrol & diesel reduced drastically. In an earlier story, we had observed that the consumption of petrol & diesel during April-June’2020 was only 1/3 of the consumption during the same period the previous year.
During the next quarter i.e. July-September’2020, it is observed that the consumption of petrol has picked up while that of diesel below the 2019 levels.  As per the latest information available on the Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC) website, it is observed that the consumption trends have further improved during October- December’2020.
Consumption of Diesel back to 2019 levels
During the 3 quarter of  2020-21 i.e. during Oct-Dec’2020, a total of nearly 212.27 LMT (Lakh Metric Tonnes) of Diesel was consumed. During the same period in 2019, the consumption was at 214.63 LMT. However, the consumption during Oct-Dec’2020 is less than the consumption during the same period in 2018.
For the first time during the current financial year, the monthly consumption in October 2020 was more than the consumption during October 2019. In Oct’2020 the consumption was 69.97 LMT compared to 65.1 LMT in October the previous year. However, this could be due to lower consumption in October 2019 rather than a definitive trend since the consumption of diesel in the next two months of 2020 has been lower than the same months in 2019.
Diesel being the main fuel consumed by most of the commercial & transport vehicles is an indicator of the state of the economy. The increasing trend indicates a gradual resumption to pre-COVID levels.
Consumption of Petrol on an increasing trend
The consumption of petrol during the 3 quarter of 2020-21 is higher than the same period in 2019-20. The month on month consumption of petrol was higher in 2020-21 compared to 2019-20 for the first time in September 2020.  This increasing trend sustained in the ensuing months also and in every month of the ‘Oct-Dec’ 2020, the consumption of petrol was higher than the same month during 2019-20. Overall, the consumption of petrol during October-December’2020 was 80.24 LMT, whereas it was 75.47 LMT, during the same period last year.
The year-on-year growth during this quarter is also close to the earlier trend i.e. the consumption for Oct-Dec’2019 increased by 7.1% compared to the same period in 2018. During the same period in 2020, the corresponding increase was 6.3%. The increased consumption of petrol indicates a near-total resumption of personal vehicular movement back to the pre-COVID levels.
Consumption of LPG is higher while Petroleum coke is still lower than last year
The quarterly consumption of all the Petroleum related products during Oct-Dec’2020 was 542.32 LMT, while it was 548.02 LMT during the same time last year. The decreased consumption of diesel & petroleum coke has impacted the overall consumption.
As highlighted in an earlier story, there has been no negative impact on the consumption of LPG during the lockdown. The fall in usage in commercial eateries & restaurants seems to have been compensated by the increase in consumption of domestic LPG in households. The trends remained the same in the subsequent months as well. Overall, during the first three quarters of 2020-21, LPG consumption was 205.8 LMT compared to 194.95 LMT during the same period last year.
Among the other important Petroleum products, there is an increase in the consumption of Petroleum Coke compared to the earlier months in 2020. Since it is used in factories, its consumption indicates a resumption of production activity. However, the consumption levels are still lower when compared to last year.
In November ‘2020, Domestic Air Passenger traffic reached 50% levels of 2019
In the wake of the COVID-19 lockdown, domestic flights were grounded on 25 March 2020 for a period of two months. Domestic flights resumed from 25 May 2020. In an earlier story, we have highlighted that the domestic passenger traffic fell by 97.7%, 83.5%, and 82.3% during May, June & July 2020 compared to the same months in 2019.
However, we had observed an increasing trend in the domestic air passenger traffic. In August 2020, 28.3 lakh passengers traveled in domestic flights which is nearly a quarter of the number recorded in August 2019. This increasing trend continued in the ensuing months. As per the information provided by DGCA, 63.54 lakh passengers traveled in domestic flights in November 2020 which is around 49% of the domestic passenger traffic in November 2019.
The overall year-on-year domestic air traffic (January – November) for 2020 is 42.5% of the passenger traffic last year in 2019. Indigo Airlines, which had a nearly 48% share of the passenger traffic prior to March’2020, increased its share in the Domestic Passenger traffic to around 60% post the resumption of services in May & June 2020.  However, in recent months its market share is around 50%, indicating resumption to pre-COVID level market share. However, as the data indicates, it will be many more months before the domestic air traffic resumes to pre-COVID levels. With the threat of a possible second wave, it is to be seen of this increasing trend sustains over the next few months.

created: January 12, 2021


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COVID-19 Impact: Vehicle registrations improve but yet to reach pre-lockdown levels
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
January 18, 2021
The Automobile sector is one of the worst-hit due to COVID-19 as it was already facing a downturn through 2019-20. Vehicle sales slumped immediately after the lockdown. The latest data indicates that the registrations improved during the latter half of 2020 but are yet to reach the pre-lockdown levels.
India is the largest manufacturer of two-wheelers & three-wheelers and the fourth largest manufacturer of passenger cars in the world. The Indian automobile industry is an Rs. 8.2 lakh crore industry, whose turnover constitutes 7.1% of GDP. Over the past few years, there has been a steady increase in the manufacture of automobiles including trucks, buses, cars, three/two-wheelers, etc. in the country. However, the sector was witnessing a downturn in 2019 on account of the economic slowdown which in turn was worsened by the COVID-19 pandemic. The lockdown and the overall economic climate further affected this already ailing sector. In this story, we compare the sales of vehicles in 2020 and compare it with that of 2019 to understand the impact of COVID-19. We use two different sets of data points in this story as explained below.
Domestic Sales data of SIAM: Data on domestic sales are released by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers, abbreviated as SIAM. This data is also provided by the government in the Lok Sabha. It has to be noted that the numbers pertaining to domestic sales, as released by SIAM, refer to the number of vehicles that have been dispatched by the manufacturing companies to dealers. This data does not indicate the level of retail sales i.e., vehicles bought by consumers. Further, the months of September to November are considered auspicious for purchasing vehicles on account of festival season. Thus, dealers stock more vehicles during this time of the year.
Vehicle Registrations data on VAHAN: The registration data is readily available in the VAHAN dashboard, maintained by the Ministry of Road Transport & Highways (MoRTH). VAHAN dashboard is a centralized database of vehicles in 33 out of 37 states/UTs which are enrolled in VAHAN 4.0. The figures from Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Lakshadweep, and Madhya Pradesh are not included here. The figures pertain to that from 1257 RTOs of the total 1464 RTOs in the country. VAHAN data is a more than reliable estimate of the vehicle registrations and hence a good indicator of retail sales, as registration is mandatory after the sale of the vehicle to the consumer.
Two-wheeler sales have gone up in 2020 according to SIAM data
According to data on domestic sales released every month by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers, only the sales of two-wheelers have gone up in 2020 compared to 2019. What it means is that the sales of passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, and three-wheelers have dropped compared to 2019. The total sales of two-wheelers have increased by nearly 25% whereas the total sales of passenger vehicles dropped by 20%, commercial vehicles by 36%, and three-wheelers by 62% in the year 2020. The increase in the sales of two-wheelers bucking the overall trend could be because of the people’s general preference to travel in private vehicles instead of public transport in the aftermath of COVID-19.
Passenger vehicle sales witnessed a YoY increase since August 2020
Quarterly data reveals that passenger vehicle sales improved in the quarters from July to September, and October to December of 2020, compared to 2019. It is also observed that the sales of passenger vehicles have overtaken the 2019 levels since August 2020. In December 2020, the sales were about 14% higher than in December 2019.
Meanwhile, the sales of commercial vehicles witnessed an improvement in the quarter from October to December of 2020. In the case of two-wheelers, except for a slump in sales in January to March quarter of 2020, the sales increased in all other quarters compared to the same period in 2019. It may be observed that the sales are slowly getting to pre-lockdown levels though the same cannot be said in the case of three-wheelers whose sales have been low all through 2020.
Vehicle registrations not yet back to pre-lockdown levels
Quarterly data on the number of total vehicles registered from the VAHAN website indicates that the number of vehicles getting registered is gradually picking up. The period from January to March 2020 witnessed over 58.3 lakh registrations as compared to over 54.3 lakh in 2019, an increase of 7%. However, in the quarter from April to June, the number dropped down to just over 15.8 lakh registrations since even RTOs were also closed for nearly a month during the lockdown. Since then, there has been a steady rise in vehicle registrations. However, it has not yet reached the pre-lockdown levels. The registrations from October to December 2020 were more than 10% less than during the same period in 2019.
For the first time in 2020-21, vehicle registrations saw an YoY increase in December 2020
Monthly data indicates that since April 2020, vehicle registrations crossed 2019 levels only in December. December 2020 witnessed about 11.3% more registrations than December 2019. According to the Federation of Automobiles Dealers Association (FADA), this growth can be attributed to good crop season, better offers in two-wheeler segments, new launches in passenger vehicles and two-wheelers, and a fear of price hike from January 2021. Registration data released by FADA shows a year-on-year (YoY) increase in December 2020 when two-wheeler registrations went up by nearly 12%, passenger vehicles by 24%, and tractor sales by over 35%. As previously mentioned in an article by Factly, sales of tractors witnessed a consistent and positive growth since July 2020. This could be because of increased agricultural activity due to good monsoon and reverse migration due to lockdown. The Indian tractor industry is the largest in the world, accounting for a third of the global production.
Parliament Standing Committee on Commerce submitted a report in December 2020
A parliamentary standing committee on commerce submitted a report on Downturn in Automobile Sector- Its Impact and Measures for Revival in December 2020. According to the report, sales have been declining for one and half years before the lockdown which forced major manufacturers to cut production. Further, the continuous decline in sales put pressure on the manufacturers to reduce manpower as per the committee report. The automobile sector associations estimated a job loss of over 3 lakh jobs. New hiring in the sector was also stopped as per the observations made in this report.
Lockdown resulted in almost Rs. 2300 crore loss per day
Following the total shutdown of automobile manufacturing plants during the lockdown, the sector faced an approximate loss of Rs. 2300 crore per day. The report predicts that the sector will likely go through two years of severe contraction.
To deal with the impact due to the pandemic & help revive the sector, the committee has made a slew of recommendations.
Apart from the COVID-19 related recovery measures, the committee has also made other recommendations to boost the sector. These include easier availability of loans to buyers, promotion of exports, encouraging electric mobility, improved public transportation, and reduction in GST. Further, the committee felt that a uniform tax structure throughout the country, coverage of insurance expenses through loans will be beneficial for people.

created: January 18, 2021


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COVID-19 impact on GSDP in States of India
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
November 3, 2020
The RBI, as a part of its ‘Study of State Budgets’ looked at the impact & spatial dimensions of COVID-19 on States. Among other things, the RBI looked at demographics, GSDP, health expenditure as some of the important parameters influencing COVID-19 impact on states. While UP & Bihar benefit from a lesser share of 60+ population, few other states were helped by higher per capita GSDP
India’s Central Bank, the Reserve Bank India (RBI) plays a key role in shaping the economic and monetary policy of the country. It’s standing as a centralised authority provides it with a vantage point to understand the state of country’s economy and the direction it is headed to.
The RBI regularly releases various reports based on available data and estimates, that provide an understanding of different aspects of the economy. One such is the annual ‘State Finances: A Study of Budgets’ which provides a detailed review of the financial situation of the States based on the annual budgets of the state governments.
The RBI released this year’s report on 27 October 2020. The current annual report assumes significance in view of COVID-19 epidemic and its impact on the economy of the country as well as states. Recognising the impact of COVID-19, RBI has dedicated a special section to  ‘COVID-19 and its Spatial Dimensions in India’, in the state budgets report for 2020. However, it has to be noted that most State budgets were presented during Feb-March’2020, which was before the pandemic took its toll on India.
In this story, we take a look at few of the key observations made by RBI in this regard.
There is a precedence of Pandemics resulting in a negative impact on the economy
As per a press release by Ministry of Statistics & Program Implementation  (MoSPI), the GDP of India contracted by 23.9% during the first quarter of 2020-21. Projections by various agencies like the IMF, OECD, Fitch Ratings etc have indicated a contraction in the economy. Factly had earlier published a story on the projections by these agencies for 2020-21 and beyond. It has to be noted that the economic slowdown is not limited to India and is part of a global slowdown due to COVID-19. Data indicates that India’s GDP growth rate is the worst among the major economies in the world for the first quarter of 2020-21.
The RBI’s report notes that an event study analysis of four pandemic outbreaks – 1896 plague, 1918 Spanish flu, 1957 Asian Flu & 1974 Smallpox, indicate a contraction/deceleration of GDP in conjecture with these events.
Among them, Spanish Flu of 1918 had the greatest impact resulting in a contraction of 13%. It ought to be noted that, Spanish Flu-1918 resulted both in greatest number of cases and deaths in India. The estimates show 125 million cases and death of 12-18 million people in India due to the Spanish Flu. In comparison, COVID-19 pandemic in India has resulted in 8.23 million cases and around 1.22 lakh deaths so far. The number of reported cases proportionate to the population was also way higher during 1918. While the current contraction by 23.9% is steeper than during the earlier pandemics, it is for a quarter and with the economy opening up post-lockdown, there are signs that economy could recover in the later quarters.
A positive aspect from the earlier precedence of pandemics is the recovery pattern. It is observed, that there is a sharp rebound following the contraction, due to the stimuli and other efforts. This is followed by contraction, and a subsequent stabilization to pre-pandemic levels within 2 years (with the exception of 1918 pandemic when it took 3-4 years).
With the current Indian economy being much larger, it is to be seen as to how quickly the country would rebound from the depths reached during the lockdowns. However, a crucial difference this time around is that the current slowdown is not only due to COVID-19, since there were indications of a slowdown even before the pandemic, due to various reasons. In this context, it is not clear whether the previous pattern of rebound would be applicable in this case also and if the time taken for stabilization would be similar to the previous occasions.
Varying Demographics of the states are influencing the impact of COVID-19 and their response
India has so far reported the second highest number of COVID-19 cases globally and has the third highest number of deaths. Meanwhile, it also has the highest number of recovered cases with a fatality rate around 1.5%, which is decreasing.
Nearly every State & UT has recorded COVID-19 cases with differences in the severity of COVID-19 infection. Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka & Tamil Nadu account for nearly half of the total cases in the country, followed by Uttar Pradesh & Kerala. Apart from the absolute number of cases, larger variances exist in the rate per million, both for number of cases recorded as well as the fatality rate.
For example, although Uttar Pradesh has the fifth highest number of cases, its cases per million is less owing to its huge population.
While there are various factors which influence the extent of COVID-19 spread, the nature of demographics of the states also has a bearing on these numbers. As per the information provided by the World Health Organization (WHO), the vulnerability to COVID-19 and the mortality risk it carries is higher among older people and those with co-morbidities like Hypertension, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases etc.
Therefore, the demographic profile of the state/country has a bearing on the susceptibility to COVID-19. Furthermore, the demographic profile also has an impact on the GSDP (Gross State Domestic Product) of the states, since the older population ( above 60 + years) & younger population are beneficiaries (healthcare, education ) etc. while the working age population are the donors to the state exchequer. The ratio of these population groups influences the GSDP of the state, state spending on healthcare facilities, spending capability of individuals etc. impacting the response of each of the states to COVID-19.
In other words, the nature of demographics has influence on the following.
Few of the states like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra have a higher share of 60 + population, making these states more vulnerable to COVID-19.
The extent of the 60+  population also has an influence on the imposition and implementation of lockdown & isolation measures as there is a greater need to protect this group of vulnerable population. This demographic indicator proves to be advantageous to states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh etc. which have considerably a less share of the older population.
However, there is another factor which influences the isolation strategy i.e. per capita GSDP. States with higher GSDP like Delhi, Kerala, Haryana, Karnataka , Telangana, Gujarat etc. have a better ability to survive lockdown for a longer period of time with lesser impact on economy.
States which had the advantage of younger demographic like U.P & Bihar do not fare well on this aspect as their per capita GSDP is low. Furthermore, the propensity of the states to be able to spend on health infrastructure is another factor.
A combination of these factors will inform us how each of the states was impacted by COVID-19 and how they are responding.
In the next story, we would take a look at how these variances among the states had influenced the impact of COVID-19 in the areas of employment, migration of workers, MSMEs & businesses, financial transactions etc.
Featured Image:  Image 1, Image 2

created: November 3, 2020


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COVID-19 India: Positivity & Fatality Rates decrease in many States
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
October 23, 2020
As Europe & the USA witness a second wave of COVID-19 infection, similar fears exist for India. However, both the positivity rate & the fatality rate across many states of India have shown a continuous decrease in the last two months.
India currently has the second highest number of COVID-19 positive cases detected till date, behind the USA. Around the beginning of October 2020, the number of new daily cases has begun to reduce following an increasing trend observed in the earlier months. Does this indicate that the infection has peaked, and we are now in a post-peak period? There are various indicators one should look at to understand the trajectory of the pandemic and its current situation. In this story, we take a look at few of these trends.  We earlier did a story analysing the trends of COVID-19 infection as of end of August 2020.
It took around 45 days for the number of cases to double from end of August 2020
In the earlier story, we had observed that the number of cases more than doubled within a single month i.e. during August 2020. During that month, the number of daily cases has also increased from around 50 thousand to 75 thousand new cases per day. Since then, the number of new daily cases has shown an increasing but inconsistent trend, with the highest number of cases being reported on 17 September 2020, with 97.8 thousand cases. Thereafter, the number of new daily cases has followed a broadly decreasing trend.
It took around 45 days , for the total number of cases to double from the end of August. On 31 August 2020, the total number of positive cases was 36.21 lakh across India which increased to 73.7 lakh cases on 16 October 2020.
The slowdown of the doubling rate can also be attributed to increase in the total number of cases since a larger number takes a longer time to double if the growth rate is decreasing.  As we had observed in the earlier story, during August the numbers more than doubled while during July 2020, they tripled though the number of new cases was way more in August than in July.
Increase in the Recovery rate and a drop in the fatality rate
India now has the highest number of recovered cases (around 68.78 lakh) of COVID-19 as on 22 October 2020 i.e. around 89% recovery rate. The recovery rate is the best in the top-10 countries with the highest number of cases (only bettered by Peru which has 90% recovery rate).  However, the recovery rate may not be right indicator to gauge the situation since all those who are affected will eventually recover except the ones who succumbed to the disease.
While recovery rate is not a right indicator, the fatality rate is. Coinciding with the increase in recovery rate, there was a drop in the fatality rate. The fatality rate was already on a decline starting September 2020, which fell further in the ensuing period. As on date, the fatality rate is 1.51% i.e. 1.51 deaths per 100 detected COVID-19 positive cases, which is amongst the least fatality rates.
Steep decline in the positivity rate
As per ICMR’s data, around 9.86 crore COVID-19 tests were conducted in India as of 22 October 2020. The number of daily tests being conducted has ranged from 10 lakhs – 14.5 lakh for the last 2 months.
India is behind only USA in the number of total tests conducted, although it does not fare well in terms of number of tests conducted per million population. A few experts believe that the number of daily cases would go up if the number of tests is also increased. While this is true, the decline in the positivity rate is a positive sign.
Positivity rate is the number of COVID-19 positive cases reported per every 100 tests conducted. The positivity rate peaked to around 9% in August 2020 which has continuously reduced since then. The current positivity rate is around 7.8%, i.e. 77.06 lakh positive cases out of 9.86 crore tests.
Declining trend of Positivity Rate in most of the States except Kerala
In the earlier story in August 2020, we had observed that the positivity rate was increasing in a few states like Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, West Bengal etc. These states have recently shown a declining trend in the cumulative positivity rate.
COVID-19 cases increasing again in France, Spain and other European countries
The declining positivity rate and fatality rates are a positive sign for India. While India appears to be on the path to recovery,  recent trends in few of the other countries are a cause for concern.
Western European countries like Spain, France, U.K etc. were among the first countries where COVID-19 spread outside of China i.e. around March-April’2020. COVID-19 infection was brought under control in these countries by May-June’2020.
However, over the last two months, there is an increase in the number of cases being reported  in these countries. As per the data available on the Worldometers.info, France started reporting more than 10 thousand cases daily from the beginning of September and currently reports around 25 thousand daily cases. Spain is also reporting around 10-15 thousand cases daily since September, which is more than the numbers it reported in March. After an increase in the number of cases from the beginning of September, United Kingdom started reporting more than 10 thousand daily cases by end of September to currently more than 20 thousand cases daily. After a decline during August, even USA has started to report an increasing number of daily cases.  All these countries are currently showing signs of a second wave spread of COVID-19 infection.
While the situation currently seems to be improving in India, a similar second wave cannot be ruled out in the future, especially with the country opening up after the lockdown.
Featured Image: COVID-19 Positivity & Fatality Rates in India

created: October 23, 2020


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‘COVID-19 is not transmitted through houseflies’, says WHO - FACTLY
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
May 8, 2020
A video of Amitabh Bachchan is being shared widely on social media with a claim that a Chinese study has proved that houseflies can transmit COVID-19. It is also being claimed that the information has been recently confirmed by the Government of India. Let’s fact-check the claim made in the post.
Houseflies can transmit the COVID-19 virus.
Fact: WHO has already debunked the myth and clarified that there is no evidence to suggest that the COVID-19 virus is transmitted through houseflies. Also, it has clarified that the virus may be present in faeces in some cases but, to date, there have been no reports of faecal-oral transmission of COVID-19. Hence the claim made in the post is FALSE.
When searched about the video, it was found that Amitabh Bachchan has tweeted the video on his Twitter account on 25 March 2020 with the following text – ‘A study in the @TheLancet shows that coronavirus lingers on human excreta much longer than in respiratory samples.’ The tweet has been deleted now, but it’s archived version can be seen here.
The study mentioned by Amitabh Bachchan can be found the Lancet website with the title – ‘Prolonged presence of SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA in faecal samples’. The study was conducted by collecting respiratory and faecal samples from 74 patients (out of enrolled 96 patients). The study mentions that ‘for over half of patients, their faecal samples remained positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA for a mean of 11·2 days after respiratory tract samples became negative for SARS-CoV-2 RNA, implying that the virus is actively replicating in the patient’s gastrointestinal tract and that faecal–oral transmission could occur after viral clearance in the respiratory tract’.
But the study also mentions that ‘determining whether a virus is viable using nucleic acid detection is difficult; further research using fresh stool samples at later timepoints in patients with extended duration of faecal sample positivity is required to define transmission potential. No cases of transmission via the faecal–oral route have yet been reported for SARS-CoV-2, which might suggest that infection via this route is unlikely in quarantine facilities, in hospital, or while under self-isolation.’
The study concludes that ‘respiratory transmission is still the primary route for SARS-CoV-2 and evidence is not yet sufficient to develop practical measures for the group of patients with negative respiratory tract sample results but positive faecal samples. Further research into the viability and infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 in faeces is required.’ So, the study has neither mentioned that houseflies can transmit COVID-19 nor concluded that COVID-19 can be transmitted through the faecal-oral route.
Also, it was reported that when Lav Agarwal (Joint Secretary – Ministry of Health and Family Welfare) was asked about Amitabh Bachchan’s tweet, he replied, ‘I have not seen his tweet, but technically I can say that this is an infectious disease and does not spread through flies.’
WHO’s view:
On the WHO website, it can be read that ‘while initial investigations suggest the virus may be present in faeces in some cases, to date, there have not been reports of faecal-oral transmission of COVID-19’.
Regarding the houseflies, WHO has already debunked the myth and posted on its website that ‘to date, there is no evidence or information to suggest that the COVID-19 virus is transmitted through houseflies. The virus that cause COVID-19 spreads primarily through droplets generated when an infected person coughs, sneezes or speaks’. The same has also been tweeted by the Indian Government.
To sum it up, COVID-19 is not transmitted through houseflies.
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COVID-19 Parliament Questions: What all did government provide & not provide?
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
October 2, 2020
The recently concluded monsoon session of parliament was an important one as it was the first session after the spread of COVID-19 in the country. Many MPs raised important questions about the impact of COVID-19 on various sectors, relief extended by the government and about various other data points. Here is a short review of what all did the government provide and what it did not.
The Monsoon Session of the parliament that began on 14 September 2020 was scheduled to go on up to 01 October 2020. However, the parliament was adjourned sine die on 23 September 2020, on the tenth day, because of the rising the number of MPs getting infected from COVID-19. This session was an important one as it was the first sitting after COVID-19 spread in India and imposition of  the nationwide lockdown which hit many sectors. The Parliament had assembled after nearly six months from the last session.
During this session, the Central Government has been at the receiving end of criticism after a few Ministers stated that no data was available for a few questions pertaining to the impact of lockdown and the pandemic on various sectors. In this story, we take a look at some of the responses given by the government in the parliament, with respect to COVID-19 and its impact across a few sectors. It has to be noted that this is not an exhaustive list of questions from the Parliament on COVID-19, but the one that tries to capture the most important sectors.
Agriculture
Agriculture has been the topic of discussion during this session following the passing of the three agriculture related bills. The impact of the pandemic on the agriculture sector was asked in the Lok Sabha, to which the ministry responded with the growth rate of GVA of Agriculture and its allied sectors in the first quarter of the last six financial years. The data on beneficiaries under the PM KISAN during the pandemic and data on claims under PM Fasal Bima Yojana was also presented. However, no specific information was provided on the impact on small and marginal farmers or debts.  When asked about the loss faced by farmers and the sector in general, the response was that no income assessment was conducted. Data on farmer suicides in 2020 is also not available as per the government.
Civil Aviation and External Affairs
The government provided data on the loss faced by the Airports Authority of India and the data on the footfall of passengers both monthly and airport wise for the period between January to August 2020. Details and numbers relating to Indians who returned from abroad under the Vande Bharat Mission was also presented by the government. Further, data on Indians infected abroad and the number deaths of Indians abroad who were infected was also provided by the government. Data on country wise number of workers and number of Indians who returned in different phases of the mission was also provided.
Commerce and Shipping
The Commerce ministry presented the monthly and year on year (YoY) comparison data for the exports by value and by product for April to June 2020. Data on merchandise exported and imported in July 2019 and July 2020 and the YoY comparison was presented in the parliament. Similarly, the Ministry of Shipping provided data on traffic handled at major ports from December 2019 to August 2020 and compared the same with the previous year along with percentage variation.
Entertainment, Culture and Tourism
For questions about the impact of the lockdown on entertainment industry and artists, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism stated that it did not carry out any impact assessment. However, details of grants released under various existing Central Sector Schemes was presented. Further, for the details on job and revenue loss in the tourism sector, the response of the government stated that data was unavailable as no formal study had been undertaken. When asked about the impact of lockdown on the television and film industry, the I&B ministry provided CRISIL’s estimate that revenue would decrease by 16%.
Finance Ministry
The Finance Ministry provided details of the assistance provided to states through SDRF and additional borrowing by states. Details of the PM Garib Kalyan Yojana, and state wise number of beneficiaries and amount released was also provided as a response to a question in the parliament.
Home Affairs
The Ministry of Home Affairs was asked questions with respect to CAPF personnel and police personnel infected with COVID-19. While data on force wise number of Central Armed Police Force (CAPF) personnel infected with COVID-19 was provided, data on number of police personnel infected was not available as it was not maintained centrally. Details of deaths or injuries during the lockdown due to police brutality were also not available as it fell under the State government’s jurisdiction.
Migrant workers and unemployment
The exodus of migrant workers when the lockdown was announced was one of the most debated issue in the last few months as there were reports on deaths and injuries. Many of these migrant workers had left to their home states, hundreds of kilometres away, on foot. The Ministry of Labour and Employment provided the state wise data on number of migrant workers who returned to their home state. But the ministry stated that there was no data available on the deaths and injuries of the migrant workers. Questions on the loss of job opportunities, job loss in unorganized sector and reverse migration, were answered without citing the details but by only providing the details of the packages announced by the government. On a question about the estimates of unemployment rate and number of people who dropped out of workforce due to COVID-19, the government stated that ‘no such survey has been conducted by the Government’. Even the Ministry of Transport stated that it did not maintain data in respect of persons injured or died in road accidents on national highways while walking to their villages/home towns during the lockdown.
Health
The Ministry of Health provided the data on state wise medical supplies such as HCQ tablets, Ventilators distributed, allocated, and installed, PPE Kits and N95 Masks and amount spent on the same. However, it stated that it did not have data on the number of tribal persons infected, number of healthcare workers infected, and the details of violence against healthcare workers. It was also stated that no central database on plasma banks was available.
Micro, Small & Medium Enterprises (MSMEs)
The MSME Ministry’s response to a question on whether the government undertook any assessment on the impact of the pandemic on the sector was vague. It stated that various sectors have been affected temporarily. On the question of how many MSMEs have closed/ become sick during lockdown and state wise data on the same, the government responded with the number of accounts referred to the committee and accounts resolved in the last six and a half years.
Rural Employment & MNREGS
With respect to MGNREGS, the Rural Development Ministry provided data on state wise funds spent between April and August 2020. The same for last three financial years was also submitted in the parliament. Details of households provided with employment and number of person days generated during March and August 2020 was also provided.
Textiles
The response to a question on the impact of the pandemic on the textiles industry was that the industry did get disrupted during the lockdown. Exact numbers pertaining to orders and supply of jute by mills for June to August 2020 alone were given. No data on cotton, silk or other textiles was provided.
Railways
The Railways provided data on the number of coaches that were converted into isolation beds across the different zones. Data on fare collected from state governments for running the ‘Shramik Special Trains’ was also provided.
Petroleum
Total consumption of petroleum products and import of crude oil, for the period April to July 2020 was provided by the Petroleum Ministry. The sector wise consumption of natural gas for 2019-20 and for April to June 2020, refinery wise production was also provided. Furthermore, the details of revenue generated by Public Sector Companies during this period was also provided in the parliament.

created: October 2, 2020


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COVID-19 patients on Critical Care Support – Huge mismatch in data
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
May 17, 2021
The Union Minister for Health & Family Welfare recently announced that around 6.4% of the active COVID-19 cases in the country are on critical care support like oxygen, ICU & Ventilators. However, the data from the states does not match this number. Here is a deep dive.
The 25 meeting of the high-level Group of Ministers (GoM) on COVID-19 was held on 08 May 2021. After reporting more than 4 Lakh new cases a day at the beginning of May, the daily numbers have since reduced slightly. However, as per the updates from the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare (MOHFW), India has been consistently reporting more than 3 lakh cases a day, currently the highest in the world.
Amidst this, the high-level GoM on COVID-19 assumes prominence. Among the various updates, the Minister of Health & Family Welfare provided information about critical patients being treated and the healthcare infrastructure made available to them. As per the update, around 4.88 lakh critical patients have required ICU beds so far. Further, around 1.7 lakh patients required ventilator support, and around 9.02 lakh patients were extended oxygen support since the beginning of the pandemic in India.
This would imply that out of the 2.43 crore COVID-19 cases (as of 15 May 2021), around 6.4% were considered as critical cases requiring ICU beds, ventilator support, or oxygen support.
The minister further updated that out of the current active caseload, 1.34% are in ICU, 0.39% are on ventilator support and 3.7% are on oxygen support. Considering that the number of active cases currently is in the range of 36-37 lakh, this would translate to around 50 thousand patients in ICU, around 14 thousand patients on ventilator support, and nearly 1.37 lakh patients on Oxygen support.
Apart from this occasional update from the Central government, there are no regular updates on the number of persons requiring such critical care support across the country. There is also no centralized database on the availability of the beds with critical care facilities and the occupancy of the same.
On the other hand, there are multiple reports in the media about the lack of adequate beds in hospitals and health support for critical patients infected with COVID-19. All these raise important questions about the accuracy & veracity of the official numbers. For instance, going by the data provided by the Government in February 2021, in the Rajya Sabha about the public health infrastructure, there were 1.57 lakh oxygen-supported beds, 36 thousand ICU beds, and more than 23 thousand ventilator beds just in the public health facilities. If the beds in the private health facilities are added to these numbers, we should have more than enough infrastructure to deal with the current crisis. However, the constant reports of lack of beds raise important questions about the veracity of the official numbers.
We looked at the official numbers on bed availability being maintained centrally by a few states to understand this in more detail. Here is what we found.
Information availability of COVID-19 beds is not uniform across the states
One of the biggest challenges in consolidating state-wise numbers on beds & availability is the lack of uniformity. States of Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Delhi, Haryana, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, etc. have dedicated dashboards that provide State-level updates on the beds occupied and available. We could not ascertain if the numbers provided by states are accurate. But there have been reports questioning the accuracy of the numbers in these dashboards in certain states.
On the other hand,  states including Maharashtra, Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu ,Karnataka, etc. have dedicated dashboards but these do not provide a state overview, rather the information on beds availability is provided only on a more granular district or hospital level.
For most of the remaining states, we could not find a central dashboard or a monitoring system in place. Few of these states have provided the information about the list of COVID-19 hospitals with their capacities and also included helplines but without the updated data on beds & availability.
Among States analysed, Telangana, Delhi & M.P have higher share of patients needing critical support
Based on the information provided & the availability of dashboards, we have analysed 9 states – the 9 states mentioned above with dedicated dashboards. For Karnataka, the information is available only under BBMP.  Furthermore, the information for Maharashtra is partial as only 3 of the 5 dedicated dashboards by region have overall information.
An analysis of these states shows varying trends with respect to the number of patients requiring critical care support among the total active patients. Critical Care Support includes – Oxygen beds, ICUs, Ventilators, and in few cases HDUs (High-Dependency Unit).
For most of these states, the data indicates a higher occupancy of the critical care units – Oxygen beds, ICUs & Ventilator supports, compared to the 6.4% average as announced by the Union Health Minister.
The countrywide numbers could be higher than the ones stated by MoHFW
As noted earlier, the MoHFW stated on 08 May 2021 that a total of 6.4% of the active COVID-19 patients are using any of the critical care support. This comes to around 2.3 lakh patients across the country based on the current active caseload (considering that there is no huge difference in the active caseload in the last one week).
As per the information analysed for the aforementioned 9 states, around 1.71 lakh cases are on critical care support in just these 9 states. This includes around 52 thousand in ICUs, 1.32 lakh using oxygen beds, and around 11 thousand on ventilator support. Adding the partial information for Karnataka & Maharashtra, this number goes up to nearly 1.96 lakhs. It ought to be noted that Karnataka & Maharashtra are the two states with the highest active patients as of date.  Complete information from these two states could further increase the number of patients who are on critical support. These 11 states alone could make up 2.3 lakh or 6.4% of the national figure as stated by the MoHFW recently.
But the above numbers relate to only around 1/3 of all the states.  States like Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Gujarat, Odisha, Bihar, Punjab, etc. have not even been considered for analysis. These states together make up for close to 9 lakh active cases as of date. In other words, if the number of COVID-19 active cases who are on critical care support in these seven states are also included to the earlier number, the overall number could be much higher than 2.3 lakh or 6.4% of the total national active caseload, as being reported by the MoHFW.
What could be the reasons for this mismatch?
One could think of multiple reasons for this mismatch between the numbers stated by the Government of India and the states.
Whatever be the reason for this mismatch, it looks like the number & proportion of active cases that are on critical care support is higher than what is reported by the MOHFW on 08 May 2021. There is also a need for standardization of definitions & record-keeping across the states so that the information is more accessible and transparent. A national dashboard with information sourced from the states could be a starting point.
Featured Image: Patients on Critical Care Support


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‘COVID-19 patients show symptoms most commonly in around five days’ - WHO - FACTLY
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
March 27, 2020
A video is being shared widely on social media in which a person claims that the people affected by COVID-19 will not show symptoms for the first 14 days. Let’s try to analyze the claim made in the post.
COVID-19 patients will not show symptoms for the first 14 days.
Fact: On the WHO website, it can be read that the incubation period for COVID-19 range from 1-14 days. But, most commonly COVID-19 patients show symptoms in around five days. Hence the claim made in the post is FALSE.
When searched about the incubation period (i.e. the time between contracting the virus and showing symptoms of the disease) for COVID-19, on the WHO website, it can be read that ‘most estimates of the incubation period for COVID-19 range from 1-14 days, most commonly around five days’.
Also, talking to CALTECH community members, David Ho (a Caltech trustee and an expert on viral epidemics) has said, ‘The incubation period from exposure to onset of symptoms is between four and six days; and if you want to cover 95–98 percent of the cases it is between three and 10 days. It’s pretty rare to have an incubation period outside of that range’. A similar timeframe was also found in a study led by researchers at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
To sum it up, it is very rare for COVID-19 patients to show symptoms after 14 days.
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COVID-19 related deaths are covered under PMJJBY but not under PMSBY - FACTLY
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
September 22, 2020
A message is being shared widely on social media with a claim that the benefits under the Pradhan Mantri Jeevan Jyoti Bima Yojana (PMJJBY) and Pradhan Mantri Suraksha Bima Yojana (PMSBY) can be claimed for COVID-19 related deaths. Let’s fact-check the claim made in the post.
The benefits under the PMJJBY and PMSBY schemes can be claimed for COVID-19 related deaths.
Fact: While it is true that the PMJJBY scheme is applicable to COVID-19 deaths, there are some conditions with respect to the eligibility and claim process. The PMSBY scheme caters only to accidents and as of today, there is no update regarding the inclusion of COVID-19 related cases in PMSBY. The maximum benefit under each scheme is 2 lakh rupees, not 4 lakh rupees as mentioned in the post. Hence the claim made in the post is PARTLY TRUE.
Two schemes are mentioned in the post. Let us look at each of them separately and try to find whether those schemes apply to COVID-19 related deaths.
Pradhan Mantri Jeevan Jyoti Bima Yojana (PMJJBY):
Are COVID-19 related deaths covered under PMJJBY?
Yes, COVID-19 related deaths are also covered under PMJJBY. On the ‘Jan-Dhan Se Jan Suraksha’ website, it can be read in the PMJJBY rules that the PMJJBY scheme offers life insurance cover for ‘death due to any reason’. Also, in a press release, the Life Insurance Corporation of India (the administrator of the policy) has said, ‘the Death claims arising due to COVID-19 shall be treated at par with other causes of death and payments shall be made on an urgent basis. Already death claims due to COVID-19 under 16 policies have been settled without losing any time.’ Also, the Life Insurance Council said, ‘the clause of ‘Force Majeure’ will not apply in case of COVID-19 death claims. All life insurance companies will process COVID-19 death claims’. [Force majeure – a clause that is included in contracts to remove liability for natural and unavoidable catastrophes that interrupt the expected course of events and prevent participants from fulfilling obligations.]
But the scheme is not applicable to people of all ages. A bank account holder between 18-50 years only can enroll in the scheme by paying an annual premium every year. Also, the insurance will terminate on attaining the age of 55 years (provided he/she joined on or before 50 years and paid the premium annually). The claims by nominees in the event of an unfortunate event of the death of the insured may be filed ‘preferably within 30 days of the death’ at the Bank Branch having the underlying Bank Account in the prescribed Claim Forms along with the death certificate.
So, while it is true that PMJJBY is applicable to COVID-19 deaths, there are some conditions with respect to the eligibility and claim process. Also, the maximum benefit under the scheme is 2 lakh rupees, not 4 lakh rupees as mentioned in the post.
Pradhan Mantri Suraksha Bima Yojana (PMSBY):
Are COVID-19 related deaths covered under PMSBY?
No, PMSBY does not cover COVID-19 related deaths. It is an accident insurance scheme ‘offering accidental death and disability cover for death or disability on account of an accident’. The PMSBY rules mention only about the accident. The ‘Future Generali’ – ‘PMSBY Policy Wordings’ document mentions – ‘ If the Insured person(s) shall sustain any bodily injury resulting solely and directly from Accident caused by external, violent and visible means then the company shall pay to the insured person’. Also, IRDAI, in one of its documents regarding the ‘Personal Accident Insurance Policy’, defined ‘Accident’ as – ‘Accident or Accidental means a sudden, unintended and fortuitous external and visible event’. So, it can be assumed that diseases like COVID-19 are not covered in accident cover under the PMSBY scheme.
Also, when FACTLY has contacted the officials through the National Toll-Free number given for the scheme, they have said that PMSBY caters only to accidents and as of today, there is no update regarding the inclusion of COVID-19 related cases in PMSBY.
To sum it up, COVID-19 related deaths are covered under PMJJBY but not under PMSBY.

created: September 22, 2020


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COVID-19 :Snapshot of State-level Numbers
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
April 20, 2020
As India crosses 15000 confirmed cases of COVID-19, the scenario at the state-level is not uniform. Here is a snapshot of the numbers at the state-level and how the numbers vary.
As the country continues to fight COVID-19, here is adetailed analysis of state-wide numbers related to various aspects of thepandemic.
The latest number of confirmed cases, recovered/cured patients and deaths reported across states have been listed below. The data has been taken from Ministry of Health & Family Welfare (as on 17 April 2020).
Name of State / UT
Total Confirmed cases (Including 76 foreignNationals)
Cured/Discharged/ Migrated
Death
Andaman and Nicobar Islands
12
11
0
Andhra Pradesh
572
36
14
Arunachal Pradesh
1
0
0
Assam
35
5
1
Bihar
83
37
2
Chandigarh
21
9
0
Chhattisgarh
36
24
0
Delhi
1707
72
42
Goa
7
6
0
Gujarat
1099
86
41
Haryana
225
43
3
Himachal Pradesh
36
16
1
Jammu and Kashmir
328
42
5
Jharkhand
33
0
2
Karnataka
359
89
13
Kerala
396
255
3
Ladakh
18
14
0
Madhya Pradesh
1310
69
69
Maharashtra
3323
331
201
Manipur
2
1
0
Meghalaya
9
0
1
Mizoram
1
0
0
Nagaland
0
0
0
Odisha
60
19
1
Puducherry
7
1
0
Punjab
202
27
13
Rajasthan
1229
183
11
Tamil Nadu
1323
283
15
Telangana
766
186
18
Tripura
2
1
0
Uttarakhand
40
9
0
Uttar Pradesh
849
82
14
West Bengal
287
55
10
India
14378
1992
480
Let’s take a look at how much each state/UT accountfor in the nation-wide picture of COVID-19 cases.
Maharashtra accounts for the most number of confirmedcases (about 23%) in India. The four states of Maharashtra (23.1%), Delhi (11.9%),Tamil Nadu (9.2%), and Madhya Pradesh (9.1%) together account for more than 50%of the total confirmed cases across India as of 17 April 2020.
Cured & Deaths – Picture of the
States
Let’s take a look at how states have fared in terms ofcured cases and deaths.
The All-India average of cured cases is around 14%. Andaman & Nicobar Islands stands highest with 91.67% cured cases though there are only 14 confirmed cases here. In Goa, 6 of the 7 confirmed cases are discharged (85.71%). About seven states have cured around 50% or more confirmed cases within their territories: Ladakh (77.8%), Chhattisgarh (66.7%) and Kerala (64.4%), Tripura (50%), and Manipur (50%). Since these numbers only indicate the percentage of cured cases within states and are not defined by the magnitude of cases in a state, the numbers do not represent the performance of states in terms of actual numbers.
Of the states that have reported at least 100 cases,the recovery rate is highest in Kerala by a distance. More than 20% of thecases are cured in the states of Karnataka, Telangana & Tamil Nadu. Delhiwhich has reported more than 1800 cases, the second-highest in the country, hasthe least recovery rate of only around 4.2%.
The All-India percentage of deaths is 3.3%. In termsof the states, Meghalaya reported 11.1% deaths, followed by Punjab (6.4%),Jharkhand (6%), Maharashtra (6%), and Madhya Pradesh (5.3%). Since Meghalaya& Jharkhand reported fewer cases, their death percentages are on a higherside. Of the states which reported more than 100 confirmed cases, Punjabreported a greater proportion of deaths (6.4%). Kerala which has the highestpercentage of cured cases also reported the lowest percentage of deaths ofthese states.
What about testing?
Most states have been reporting the number of samples they have tested so far. Sates like Telangana, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur, Meghalaya, and some Union Territories are not regularly publishing data in this regard. The data is sourced from state health bulletins to the last updated versions (as on 17 April 2020) and the total number of tests for India has been sourced from Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) (as on 17 April 2020).
Name of State / UT
Samples Tested
Number of Confirmed Cases
Confirmed Percentage
Andhra Pradesh
20,235
572
2.83%
Arunachal Pradesh
206
1
0.49%
Assam
4,236
35
0.83%
Bihar
9,486
83
0.87%
Chandigarh
358
21
5.87%
Chhattisgarh
5,519
36
0.65%
Delhi
21,409
1707
7.97%
Goa
673
7
1.04%
Gujarat
23,483
1099
4.68%
Haryana
8,884
225
2.53%
Himachal Pradesh
1,992
36
1.81%
Jammu and Kashmir
6,438
328
5.09%
Jharkhand
3,751
33
0.88%
Karnataka
17,594
359
2.04%
Kerala
18,029
396
2.20%
Ladakh
917
18
1.96%
Madhya Pradesh
20,298
1310
6.45%
Maharashtra
55,678
3323
5.97%
Meghalaya
617
9
1.46%
Mizoram
94
1
1.06%
Nagaland
184
0
0.00%
Odisha
7,577
60
0.79%
Punjab
5,988
202
3.37%
Rajasthan
42,847
1229
2.87%
Tamil Nadu
29,673
1323
4.46%
Tripura
726
2
0.28%
Uttarakhand
2,831
40
1.41%
Uttar Pradesh
24,643
849
3.45%
West Bengal
4,212
287
6.81%
Thedata suggests that states that have tested a greater number of samples havereported higher confirmed cases. Since all the states have not reported theirtesting numbers, this juxtaposition is limited to the ones that have reportedtheir testing numbers.


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Spain’s ‘Antibodies study’ reveals that officially reported cases are only about 10% of infected population
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
June 10, 2020
It is widely accepted that many of those infected with COVID-19 are asymptomatic and hence may not even figure in the official list of positive cases. A large ‘antibodies’ study commissioned by the Spanish government now reveals that the number of officially reported cases in Spain are only about 10% of the potentially infected population.
As per latest available data, more than 70 lakh (7 million) cases of COVID-19 were recorded across the world. Conservative estimates peg the number of tests carried to identify these cases at more than 10 crores (100 million).
Countries across the world have adopted different testing strategies to identify COVID-19 cases. The ambiguity surrounding the symptoms, means and extent of the spread of infection etc. have so far prevented from developing a standard/uniform strategy to detect the spread.
Over the last few months, the understanding of COVID-19 has also changed & improved, largely on account of new research.  Various governments have commissioned research studies to understand the spread much more in detail. In this story, we look at one such research study conducted in Spain regarding the prevalence of COVID-19 infection by detecting antibodies against the virus.
The Sample size makes it one of the largest research studies regarding COVID-19
Spain is among the countries severely affected by COVID-19, both in terms of number of positive cases as well as fatalities with more than 27 thousand deaths. It is also one of the countries where initial outbreak of COVID-19 was widespread outside of China. It looks like the country has currently overcome the first wave of COVID-19 infection as the number of daily new cases has decreased substantially compared to a month ago.
This research study named ENE-COVID 19 (National Sero-Epidemiology Study of SARS-COV-2 Infection in Spain) was carried out through a collaborative effort between Spain’s Ministry of Health and the Carlos III Health Institute, along with support from National Statistics Institute.
A total of 60,983 participants took part in the first round of tests conducted in the two-week period of 27 April to 13May,2020. Of these, 86 participants were excluded from the analysis since they did not have details for all the demographic values considered by the study. Apart from these, there was another complementary island study carried out in islands not included in the national study. The number of valid tests from this complementary study is 3,234. The participant rate among the eligible individuals was 62.3%, while it was 74.7% among those who were contacted to take part in the test.
ENE-COVID 19 is a Sero-epidemiological longitudinal study
A Sero-epidemiological study is an epidemiological study which is based on the blood serum antibodies.  ENE-COVID 19 study being carried out in Spain is based in Sero-epidemiological tests.
The various COVID-19 tests carried out across the world are to detect the presence of the COVID-19 virus in the body, and to determine the need for isolation and treatment. On the contrary, an antibody test checks if there are any antibodies in the blood, which are typically formed when the person successfully fights off an infection like COVID-19.
Testing positive in this test would mean that the person most likely had an infection earlier (not necessarily realize it) and has some degree of immunity to the infection.  Identifying individuals who have developed antibodies can help in further research on developing cure for COVID-19. The results of such tests provide important insights into the spread of COVID-19 as many asymptomatic individuals may not have been tested at all.
Two types of tests used for the study
Based on the inputs from National Institute of Statistics, 1500 census units and 24 addresses were selected for the study in Spain. These units were selected taking into account different criteria like geographical units, density of population etc. From these units, a total of 90 thousand people was invited for testing and to be part of the study, of which around 60 thousand participated.
The participants were further divided into two sub cohorts.  In view of the geographical diversity and peculiarities of few of the islands, additional participants were considered as part of the sampling beyond the 60 thousand + participants.
Two types of tests were used to measure anti-SARS-COV-2 (i.e. COVID-19) antibodies.
The Rapid tests allow for getting the results on the spot and the blood sample is collected using a prick. The reliability studies carried out for ENE-COVID 19 study indicate a sensitivity of 73% and 79% respectively for IgM and IgG (Antibodies) and a specificity of 98% for the former and 100% for later.
For those participants who have provided the consent, blood was collected through Venipuncture (puncture in the arm). IgG antibody determination by Immunoassay was done for the blood samples collected from these participants. This provided for a more rigorous analysis of the samples. However, the disadvantage of this method was the need to perform a venipuncture, which resulted in lesser participation for this type of test.
The combination of the information provided by both the techniques is considered for the final results. (The lower sensitivity of the rapid tests was corrected while analysing the information)
The prevalence of COVID-19 Antibodies in the population is found to be 5%
The entire study is planned to be carried out in three rounds.
The first round of studies and testing was for the period 27April 2020 – 13May 2020. The results and observation after the first wave of study are the following.
The second round of study was for the period 18 May 2020-01 June 2020. More than 55 thousand random samples were collected for the second round.
Though results from Spain are encouraging, Herd Immunity is still far-off
As highlighted earlier, Spain is one of the worst hit countries due to COVID-19 infection. The positive cases recorded officially is around 2.88 lakhs. However, the 5.2% prevalence of antibodies in the tested samples, when extrapolated with the population of the country reveals that around 2.4 million in Spain could have been infected by COVID-19, while the official recorded cases is just over 10% of this number.
While it is encouraging to learn that a section of the population has developed immunity to COVID-19 and are safeguarded against any further outbreak of infection, Herd Immunity is still far off, as observed by Spain’s health officials.
Only 5.2% of Anti-body prevalence in spite of being among the countries with the highest COVID-19 cases which has nearly overcome its first wave of infection, is a lesson to be picked up by other countries who are banking on possible herd immunity in tackling COVID-19.
Featured Image: Spanish Antibodies study


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COVID-19 testing: Which Country is testing how many?
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
March 30, 2020
In terms of the COVID-19 testing, there are wide variations among countries. While some countries have been aggressive with their testing strategy, some others have been conservative. Here is a look at the status of testing in various countries including India.
Thenumber of confirmed cases of COVID-19 across the world are increasing at arapid rate. Asper WHO’s
dashboard on 29 March 2020, there are over 6.34 lakh confirmedcases in 202 countries. This exponential increase over the past few days can beattributed to USA and Western European countries like Italy, Spain, Germany,France etc.
Meanwhile,countries in Latin America, Africa and South Asia have been reportingcomparatively lower numbers. While there are multiple reasons cited for thewide variance in confirmed cases, the difference in the number of tests beingconducted by each country to identify positive COVID-19 cases is also consideredone of them.
How is each country testing? Are there wide variations between the countries? Are the positive cases identified proportional to the numbers being tested? Here is detailed analysis.
No
comprehensive data available for testing numbers
Testingis critical to identify if a person is infected with COVID-19. Studies indicate that it could take anywhere between 2-14 days after the exposure for thesymptoms to be visible. Hence, testing helps to:
However, the rationale & the testing strategy followed by countries varies widely.  While few countries have been aggressive on this front by facilitating the conduct of tests for anyone who suspects to be infected, few other countries like India have laid down certain criteria for testing. Further, testing is offered for free in some countries while in a few others, there is an associated charge. Availability of testing kits and other resources also seem to influence the policy being followed by the county for optimum use of the limited means available or testing.
So,what is the number of tests being carried out by each country?
Currently, there is no centralized database which tracks the number of tests being conducted by each country. Unlike the database for the number of positive COVID-19 cases and the deaths, WHO does not maintain any database for the number of tests being conducted in each country. However, few countries have from time to time published the details of the tests being conducted which remains the only reliable source. In absence of any official aggregator of such data, few private organizations are making an effort to collate the information.
The information which is available is not up to date and is quite dynamic. The latest information available for each of the countries is for different dates and hence cannot be compared. There are chances that a country might have stepped up testing after the publication of such data.
However, a brief look at the tests data may indicate a general trend in the testing strategy followed by various countries.
Germany
& Italy are among the countries with high number of tests in Europe
Italy is the worst-hit country due to COVID-19 with more than 10 thousand deaths being recorded. Italy along with USA are the new epicentres of spread of the virus beyond China.
Apartfrom Italy, many of the European countries especially the West Europeancountries have recorded high number of positive cases of COVID-19.
Germanywhich has the 5 highest number of COVID-19 positive cases hasconducted the highest number of tests of around 4.83 lakhs. It is followed byItaly with 4.29 lakh tests. Spain which has the next highest number of COVID-19cases in Europe after Italy has conducted 3.5 lakhs tests. Switzerland, UnitedKingdom and France are the other European countries which have conducted morethan 1 Lakh tests, as per the latest available reports. Russia which has around1,500 positive cases have conducted around 2.43 lakhs tests.
Country
No. of Tests
Latest Date
Austria
46,441
29.03.2020
Belgium
44000
28.03.2020
Czechia
40700
28.03.2020
Denmark
18810
28.03.2020
France
101046
24.03.2020
Germany
483295
26.03.2020
Italy
429526
28.03.2020
Netherlands
46810
26.03.2020
Norway
82584
28.03.2020
Poland
38674
29.03.2020
Portugal
32754
28.03.2020
Russia
243377
28.03.2020
Spain
350000
21.03.2020
Sweden
24500
25.03.2020
Switzerland
106000
29.03.2020
United Kingdom
120776
28.03.2020
South Korea
and USA among countries which did extensive testing
Overthe last one week, U.S.A has overtaken China as the country with the highestnumber of COVID-19 positive cases. The exponential increase in the number of positivecases can be attributed to the increase in the number of tests being done. Asper the official reports, as on 29 March 2020, more than 7.62 lakh
tests were conducted in USA, which is the highest acrossthe globe.
Althoughthe situation now appears to be under control, South Korea happens to be one ofthe earliest countries hit by COVID-19. Its geographical proximity with Chinabeing one of the reasons for the early outbreak. However, they have conductedaggressive testing to identify and control the pandemic, which is reflected inthe 3.94 lakh tests conducted here. Meanwhile, China, where the outbreak firsthappened has conducted 3.2 lakh tests in the Guangdong province alone. Datafor other provinces is not available.
Among the other countries, Canada and Australia have been proactive in conducting the tests with 1.84 and 1.38 lakh tests. Iran, which is among the countries with highest COVID-19 positive cases, as per a report on 14 March 2020, conducted 80 thousand tests. Latest data is not available.
Meanwhile, the testing is quite low among the other Asian countries. India and Pakistan, which are among the highly populated countries in the world have conducted only 27.6 thousand and 13 thousand tests respectively and in each country, the number of positive cases has crossed one thousand.
Brazil has conducted the highest number of tests among Latin American countries with more than 45 thousand tests. The testing is yet to pick up in African countries. South Africa conducted more than 7 thousand tests so far.  In a tweet on 16 March 2020, United Arab Emirates stated that they have conducted 1.25 lakh tests.
Country
No. Of Tests
Latest Date
Australia
138623
28.03.2020
Brazil
45708
20.03.2020
Canada
184201
28.03.2020
China (only Guangdong province)
320000
24.03.2020
India
27688
27.03.2020
Iran
80000
14.03.2020
Japan
27005
27.03.2020
Malaysia
35516
28.03.2020
Mexico
4259
28.03.2020
Pakistan
13231
28.03.2020
Philippines
2686
29.03.2020
South Africa
31963
28.03.2020
South Korea
394141
29.03.2020
Taiwan
29389
28.03.2020
Turkey
55464
28.03.2020
U.A.E
1,25,000
16.03.2020
USA
762015
29.03.2020
Norway, UAE
& Switzerland conducted the highest tests per million population
The total number of tests conducted by a country is a measure of volume and does not completely reflect the extant of tests in proportion to the population of that country. For example, USA may have conducted the highest number of tests. However, countries like Belgium & Croatia despite conducting a fewer number of tests may fare better in terms of covering a greater chunk of their population.
Hence the number of tests conducted per a million (10 lakhs) of the population is a more appropriate measure.  By taking into consideration the respective population of the countries and the total COVID-19 tests conducted by the country, the number of tests conducted per million is calculated.
Among the countries which have been considered for this analysis, Norway records the highest with 15,386 tests per million followed by UAE and Switzerland. Australia & South Korea have also fared well in terms of tests conducted per million population.
The highly affected European countries of Italy, Spain have conducted around 7 thousand tests per million followed by Germany and Austria.  Meanwhile, India with its huge population and fewer number of tests being conducted so far averages around 20 tests per million. Pakistan, Brazil and Mexico the other largely populated countries follow suit.
Meanwhile,China (Guangdong province) and USAthe main epicentres of the pandemic were able to conduct around 2,800 and 2,400 tests per million.
Kerala has
conducted the highest number of tests in India
In its notification on 27March 2020, Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) has stated that 27,688samples have been tested for COVID-19 so far. As in the case of countries, thestates within India have been inconsistent with publishing the informationrelated to samples tested. Only a few states have furnished this information.
Among the states whose information is available, Kerala has conducted the highest number of tests with 5,432 samples.  This is followed by Karnataka and Rajasthan with 3,076 and 2,325 tests respectively. Maharashtra which along with Kerala is among the states with a high number of positive cases has not furnished details of the number of tests carried out.
From the available data, aproportional correlation is observed between the number of tests conducted andthe number of COVID-19 positive cases.
Need for
conducting more tests within the country as well as globally
The case of USA, wherein the number of COVID-19 cases has increased exponentially with the increase in the number of tests underscores the need for increased testing. Increased testing might help understand the prevalence of the virus more accurately. South Korea acts as a positive example where proactive testing has helped to identify and restrict the spread.
Meanwhile, Italy and Spain have also witnessed an increase in the number of positive cases proportional to the tests being conducted. These examples offer learnings for countries like India, Pakistan, Brazil, Argentina, Bangladesh, etc. with higher populations to increase testing for COVID-19.
Many of the countries in South & South East Asia, Latin America and Africa have reported a low number of COVID-19 cases which could be due to a fewer number of tests. One can only ascertain the actual spread once testing improves.
Even within India, the states which have conducted a greater number of tests have reported a higher number of cases. The data on the number of tests conducted in states like U.P & Bihar with huge populations is unavailable. The lower number of positive cases recorded in these states could be due to lower testing.
The availability of test kits is a major challenge affecting many countries, forcing governments around the world to prioritize testing. The need of the hour is to identify means to increase the number of test kits or develop effective testing strategies that allow for a greater number of people to be tested. Until this is resolved, and the testing numbers increased, we may never know the actual spread of COVID-19.
Featured Image: COVID-19 testing


text:
COVID-19 treatment under Ayushman Bharat – 7.08 lakh claims, 43% approved, 29% amount paid
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
August 3, 2021
As per the data provided by government in response to a RTI application, a total of 7.08 lakh claims for Rs. 2526 crores were raised for COVID-19 treatment under Ayushman Bharat as of 23 July 2021. Out of these, 3.06 lakh claims have been paid amounting to Rs. 721 crores.
The burden of Health Expenditure is one of the direct impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Globally, many countries have responded to this by providing health care support to their citizens suffering due to COVID-19.
The Government of India has also extended healthcare treatment support to the economically weaker sections of the society who are impacted by COVID-19. This is done under the aegis of its Ayushman Bharat scheme, also referred to as Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (PM-JAY). Prior to this, few of the State governments had already included COVID-19 as part of their state-level healthcare schemes. Many of these schemes are in conjunction with the Ayushman Bharat scheme.
In an earlier story, we have highlighted that there is an increase in the public expenditure on healthcare due to COVID-19 pandemic in the country. In this story, we look at the numbers relating to claims for COVID-19 treatment under Ayushman Bharat Scheme. This is based on the data provided by the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare in response to a Right to Information Application (RTI).
Both Testing & Treatment of COVID-19 covered for those eligible under Ayushman Bharat
At the beginning of the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic in the country, the government of India decided to include COVID-19 as part of Ayushman Bharat Pradhan Mantri – Jan Arogya Yojana. Accordingly, the National Health Authority has notified two packages:
In view of the various symptoms and co-morbidities that are associated with COVID-19, the coverage for treatment is done under various health packages (HBP) already available under PM-JAY.
Apart from these packages, the empanelled hospitals are given the flexibility of including other approved packages based on the symptoms & treatment provided. The State governments are required to determine the limit on the additional costs incurred for treatment like isolation facilities, PPE kits, etc.
At the time of inclusion of COVID-19 treatment under Ayushman Bharat, all but 4 states (Delhi, Odisha, Telangana & West Bengal) were part of the Ayushman Bharath PM-JAY scheme. The scheme was subsequently rolled out in Telangana in May 2021. Therefore, the claims for COVID-19 treatment in these states can be raised under the packages mentioned in HBP 1.0 & HBP 2.0. Individual states can set specific cut-off limits.
Most COVID-19 claims raised in Andhra Pradesh followed by Karnataka & Maharashtra
As per the information provided by National Health Authority (NHA) in response to an RTI application, around 7.08 lakh COVID-19 treatment-related claims were raised under PM-JAY across India as of 23 July 2021.
Among these, the highest number of claims are from Andhra Pradesh with more than 1.9 lakh. Karnataka accounted for the second-highest number of claims raised with 1.72 lakhs followed by Maharashtra with 1.49 lakh claims. Around 80 thousand claims came from Kerala. It ought to be noted that these states are among the severely affected by COVID-19 both during the first wave & second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.
As per the data, out of the 32 states/UTs with beneficiaries under PM-JAY, the claims were raised in 24 of them. Not a single COVID-19 treatment-related claim was raised in a few of the larger states like Bihar, Gujarat & Punjab. However, a news report quoting the government of Punjab states that there are COVID-19 patients who have benefitted from the PM-JAY scheme in the state.
Out of the total claims raised, only 43% of the claims have been paid as of 23 July 2021.  Among the states, most claims were paid in Karnataka with 95.6 thousand i.e., around 55 % of the claims raised. A lower proportion of claims have been paid in other states with a high number of claims raised. Around 45% of the raised claims were paid in Andhra Pradesh while in case of Maharashtra it is only around 39%. Only around 20% of the claims raised have been paid in Kerala & Chhattisgarh.
Only about 29% of the Claim amount raised has been paid
The total amount raised through claims for COVID-19 treatment under PM-JAY across the country is about Rs. Rs. 2.52 thousand crores as of 23 July 2021. This accounts for an average of around Rs. 35,600 per claim. Out of the total amount, only around Rs. 721.23 crores have been paid which is around 29% of the total claim amount.
A total of five States account for 95% of the total amount. Karnataka accounts for the highest with around Rs. 830 crores, followed by Andhra Pradesh with Rs. 612 crores. Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu & Kerala make up the rest of 95% of the total claims amount raised. Tamil Nadu has the highest amount per claim raised with Rs. 1.31 lakh per claim.
However, only 29% of the claim amount that is raised for treatment of COVID-19 is paid on average across the country.  Among these five states noted above, more than half of the claim amount raised has been paid only in Tamil Nadu with around 54%. In Karnataka & Maharashtra, around 37% of the claims’ raised amount has been paid while in Kerala it is only 11%.
As per the RTI data, the value of claims paid in Andhra Pradesh is Rs. 1.78 crores. This accounts for only 0.3% of the total amount raised. This percentage is an anomaly compared to the trend across other states. Hence, we have reached out to the Health Department of the Government of Andhra Pradesh for clarification and if the numbers provided by the Union Health Ministry are right. This article will be updated once a response is received.
Huge disparities among states in the utilization of the Ayushman Bharat Scheme for COVID-19 treatment
As per the data available on the PM-JAY website, U.P & Bihar have the highest number of households enlisted as beneficiaries under Ayushman Bharat with 1.16 & 1.08 crore households respectively. Uttar Pradesh has so far reported 17.6 lakh COVID-19 cases and Bihar around 7.4 lakh cases. However, only about 900 claims have been raised in Uttar Pradesh for COVID-19 treatment, while not a single claim is raised in Bihar.
On the other hand, more than 90% of the claims for COVID-19 treatment have been raised from Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Chhattisgarh & Kerala. These 6 states contribute 94% of the total number of claims and 97% of the number of claims raised, highlighting huge disparities among the states in utilizing COVID-19 treatment benefits under Ayushman Bharat.
Apart from the disparities among states, another key aspect is the lower proportion of claims approved. At the national level, only 43% of the claims raised have been approved. Even this number is mainly due to the claims approved in Tamil Nadu & Karnataka.
The claims’ paid amount is still lower at 29%. Since the age of the claims is not known, it is difficult to ascertain the pendency of claims. However, the huge disparities among states in both the number of claims & amount raise questions around the efficacy of COVID-19 treatment under PM-JAY, at a time when the country is arguably facing its biggest health crisis.
Featured Image: COVID-19 treatment under Ayushman Bharat

created: August 3, 2021