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Data: Reviewing India’s Progress on Drinking Water, Sanitation, Electricity, Access to Institutional Credit
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
August 15, 2023
As India celebrates the 77th Independence Day, it is important to look back at the progress made over the years. In this story, we look at the progress made in basic necessities such as Drinking Water, Sanitation, Electricity, Access to Institutional Credit.
76 years back, on this day, Jawaharlal Nehru, in his famous speech, ‘Tryst with Destiny’, reminded people that the achievement of freedom is an opening of opportunity to greater triumphs and achievements that await us, while self-reflecting “Are we brave enough and wise enough to grasp this opportunity and accept the challenge of the future?”.  These words hold true even today as we grapple with the emerging complexity of challenges.
It is not easy to ignore the progress India made over the last seven decades. While the progress is remarkable, it is not devoid of shortcomings. Through this article, we analyse the progress in India in achieving the basic needs of the households such as access to electricity, clean water, sanitation, finance, by using some less used, yet important metrics.
Note: The data is taken from NSS reports conducted over these years. Caution must be exercised in analysing and interpreting the data as these are sample surveys.
Exclusive access to drinking water is still a huge issue in Rural India
Water is a crucial nutrient for human health. Ensuring access to clean water is one of the easiest and surest methods to reduce the disease burden. Availability and access to drinking water is an important determinant of the overall quality of life of the population.
The National Sample Survey Organization (NSSO) conducts periodic surveys on ‘Drinking water, Sanitation, Hygiene and Housing Conditions’. The latest survey (76 Round) was conducted in 2018. It was found that the principal source of drinking water of the household was hand-pump in the rural areas and piped water into dwellings in the urban areas. The survey also reveals that about 48.6% of the households in rural areas and about 57.5% of the households in urban areas had exclusive access to the principal source of drinking water. Almost 31% of rural households use water that is a public source and is unrestricted, while 16% of urban households have principal source of drinking water in the same building along with other households.
That is, less than half of the total households in rural areas have exclusive access to the principal source of drinking water as per the 2018 NSSO survey. The Government of India launched Jal Jeevan Mission (JJM) in 2019, with the objective to ensure every rural household has a drinking water supply in adequate quantity of prescribed quality on a regular and long-term basis. As of August 2023, 66% of rural households are provided with tap water connections if one goes by the data on the government’s dashboard.
30% of rural India still do not have access to sanitation facilities in contrast with 4% of urban India.
Proper sanitation facilities such as toilets and latrines that separate human excreta from human contact are crucial for the healthy development of people. The absence of basic sanitation facilities can result in an unhealthy environment contaminated by human waste, leading to a wide variety of diseases and illnesses.
The National Statistical Office (NSO) conducts surveys on housing and sanitation conditions in rural and urban areas of the country at periodic intervals. It is observed that there is a gradual decline in the percentage of households with no latrine facilities in both urban and rural areas. In urban areas, the percentage of households with no latrine facilities decreased from 36.9% during the 15 Round (1959-60) to 3.8% in the 76Round (2018). In Rural areas, the percentage of households with no latrine facilities decreased from 88.8% to 28.7% during the same period. A higher decline from 59.4% to 28.7% can be seen in rural areas between 69 Round (2012) and 76 Round (2018).
As per the available data, between the 65 Round (2009) and 76 Round (2018), the percentage of households in rural areas having latrines for “exclusive use of households” rose from 27.9% to 63.2%, whereas in urban areas it jumped from 58.1% to 77.6%.
The Government of India launched Swachh Bharat Mission in 2014, to achieve universal sanitation coverage. As of August 2023, approximately 70% of villages in India are “Open Defecation Free (ODF) Plus” villages. However, the veracity of these claims is questionable as there are reports that question the ODF status.
More than 90% of households in rural and urban areas are electrified.
The availability of drinking water within the premises and a latrine along with electricity depict a better living facility. The availability of all three facilities is crucial to the decent and healthy living of the people. The data on the availability of electricity facilities to households as well as its temporal changes over the period from 1989 to 2018-19 show that there is an incremental progress in the proportion of households with electricity. It improved from 27% in 1989 to 94% in 2018 for rural areas, whereas for urban areas, it rose from 75% to 99%.
The rural-urban divide in power coverage has also shrunk during this period. In 1989, just about 27% of rural families had access to electricity, which was down roughly 48% away from the 75% in urban India. Electricity was available to 53% of rural homes in 2002, compared to roughly 92% of urban households, a reduction of nearly 39 percentage points from the previous year. Electricity coverage for rural households was 80% compared to 98% for urban households in 2012, narrowing the difference to 18 percentage points. In 2018, the gap in coverage between urban and rural households came down further to 5%. The aim to achieve universal household electricity access by the early 2020s is on track with decent progress made.
Urban areas register decent progress while rural areas remain stagnant in access to credit.
Credit is one of the supply-side factors that is crucial to boosting consumption. And access to credit in rural areas has predominantly been from non-institutional sources leading to a practise called, ‘usury’ (the illegal action or practice of lending money at unreasonably high rates of interest). Equitable access to institutional credit is important in this context of a relative scarcity of credit and the high cost of informal credit. While debt might not directly show the extent of access, it is a key indicator of credit access.
The National Statistical Office (NSO) conducts All India Debt & Investment (AIDIS) surveys in the rural and urban areas of the country at periodic intervals. Interestingly, a huge jump can be seen from 29% in 1971 to 61% in 1982, possibly an after-effect of the nationalization of banks that took place in 1969. From 61% in 1982, it reduced to 56% in 2013 (70 Round). The latest survey (77 Round) conducted in 2019, revealed that approximately 66% of the total outstanding debt in rural areas is from institutional sources. This is the highest in all these seven decades.
On the other hand, the share of institutional sources in total outstanding debt in urban areas rose incrementally from 60% in 1982 (37 Round) to 87% in 2019 (77 Round).  While urban areas had saw decent progress in access to institutional credit, this has not been the case with rural areas.
Featured Image: India’s Progress made in basic necessetites


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Data: Rising Inflation & global factors could affect India’s food grain exports after record exports of Rice & Wheat in 2021-22 - FACTLY
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
May 30, 2022
The Government of India recently imposed restrictions on Wheat exports, in a bid to control rising food prices, ensuring domestic food security. However, this comes after India’s record exports of both Rice & Wheat in 2021-22 putting the export targets for 2022-23 in jeopardy.
The Government of India recently imposed restrictions on Wheat exports. Among the reasons cited for the imposition of these restrictions are the controlling rising food prices, ensuring food security domestically as well as to the countries that India has committed to.
This was followed by certain relaxations which allowed for export of consignments that have already been registered for customs.  This decision by the government comes in the wake of an increase in international demand for wheat and surging food prices, impacted by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Russia has been the largest exporter of Wheat in the World and Ukraine is among the leading exporters. This had presented India an opportunity to export wheat at better prices.  India has been a marginal player in global wheat exports with decrease in exports starting 2012-13 only to increase in 2020-21 & 2021-22.
The Government of India has on multiple occasions expressed its intent to  increase the export of food grains. Earlier, in an international forum, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that India is ready to supply Food stock to the world, if WTO permits.
However, with the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare releasing its third advance estimates of food grain production in the country for 2021-22, the government seems to have taken a step back. While the latest estimates predict a record food grain production, there is a fall in Wheat production compared to its second advance estimates and also falls short of the target for 2021-22.
While the increase in temperatures is cited as the prime reason for the fall in wheat production, the government cited its policies as a contributing factor for increase in production of overall food grains.
But what has been the trend in India’s food grain production & exports over the years? In this two-part series, we look at trends of production and export for few of the important food grains & pulses in the country. In the first part we analyse the trends for Rice & Wheat, which are the two major crops and constitute about 3/4 of the total food grains production in the country.
Latest estimates indicate fall in Wheat production compared to 2020-21
In terms of volume, Wheat is the second most produced food grain in the country. Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh & Rajasthan are among the major wheat producing states in the country.  The annual production of Wheat in India has increased over the 10-year period. In 2013-14, the production was 93.5 million tonnes. Despite a lower advance estimate in 2021-22 than the previous year, the production is at 106.4 million tonnes i.e., nearly 14% more than the annual production 10 years ago.
However, the trend over the last ten years is not consistent.  In 2014-15, there was a major fall in the production of Wheat by nearly 9.7%.  Bad monsoon and unfavourable weather conditions contributed towards a fall in the production of wheat in that year. Annual Wheat production showed an increasing trend in the ensuing years, although the growth rate remained unstable.
If the third advance estimates hold good, 2021-22 would be the first time that the production fell compared to the previous year after 2014-15.
The third advance estimates indicate a production of 106.4 million tonnes as against 109.59 million tonnes in 2020-21. Although 2020-21 marked a record annual production of 109 million tonnes, the growth was only 1.6%, lower than the growth of 4.1% in 2019-20. While there is a slowdown in the production of wheat over the last two years, the trend in the exports of wheat is the opposite.
Record export of Wheat in 2021-22
India is a marginal player in global wheat exports as noted recently by the Union Commerce Minister.  This was also highlighted in the latest press release related to the ban on Wheat exports.
There has been a significant increase in India’s wheat exports in the recent years. As per the information available with APEDA (Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority), during 2012-13 & 2013-14, India exported 6.51 million tonnes & 5.56 million tonnes of Wheat respectively.  This fell in 2014-15 to only 2.92 million tonnes. It ought to be noted that there was a significant fall in the production of Wheat in 2014-15, as indicated earlier in the story.  The volume of Wheat exported in 2014-15 to countries like Bangladesh, South Korea, UAE, Djibouti etc. fell drastically compared to 2013-14.
The overall volume fell further in 2015-16. This is reflected in the fall in volume exported to countries like Bangladesh.  In 2013-14, the wheat exports to Bangladesh were around 1.98 million tonnes, which reduced to 1.12 million tonnes in 2014-15 and to 0.37 million tonnes in 2015-16. This fell further in the ensuing years.  The decreasing trend continued until 2019-20.
In 2020-21, the exports increased almost 10 times to 2.08 million compared to 0.21 million in 2019-20. A major portion of this can be attributed to an increase in the wheat export to Bangladesh, with 1.15 million tonnes exported during the COVID-19 year. Export of wheat further increased to 7 million tonnes in 2021-22, with 50 % of the exports to Bangladesh.
A target of 10 million tonnes of wheat exports is set for 2022-23. As per an update by Ministry of Commerce & Industry, around 3 million tonnes of export of Wheat is estimated to Egypt for 2022-23. Egypt is among the world’s leading importers of Wheat, with a major portion coming from Russia & Ukraine. The prevailing conflict in these two countries could have helped boost exports from countries like India if the production had increased as anticipated. India is now being listed as one of the origins for strategic commodity (in this case, Wheat) by Egypt.
While India has assured wheat exports to traditional export partners, the extent of the impact of export restrictions is still not known in meeting India’s export targets for 2022-23.
Consistent growth recorded in production of Rice
Over the last 10 years (2012-13 to 2021-22), the annual production of Rice has increased by around 23%.  The growth rate is more prominent in the recent years. In fact, in the beginning of the 10-year period, there was a phase of declining annual production of rice. In 2012-13, the annual production was 105.23 million tonnes, which reduced to 104.41 million tonnes by 2015-16.  In the ensuing years, there was a year-on-year increase in the annual production of Rice in the country.
For 2021-22, the target set for rice production was 121.1 million tonnes. The third advance estimates released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmer Welfare pegs the production of the rice in the country across both Kharif & Rabi at 129.66 million tonnes, a slight increase over the second advanced estimates of 127.9 million tonnes.
Significant increase in the export of non-Basmati rice in 2020-21
Data as per APEDA indicates that as 17.72 million tonnes of Rice worth USD 8.82 billions was exported for the year 2020-21. This is a significant increase over the previous year, where-in 9.49 million tonnes of rice was exported. While the export of Basmati Rice has remained constant in these two years, the export of non-basmati rice increased from 5.04 million tonnes in 2019-20 to 13.09 million tonnes in 2020-21.
The increase in 2020-21 in the case of non-Basmati rice is due to increase in the volume of exports to Nepal along with a few African countries like Benin Somalia, Senegal etc., a substantial increase in export of rice to Bangladesh, and to other newer countries.
The value of non-Basmati rice exports in 2020-21 was USD 4.8 billion. As per an update by government in April 2022, the value of non-Basmati rice exports increased to USD 6.15 billion in 2021-22.  Meanwhile, the volume of export of Basmati rice has increased slightly over the years.  The major destinations for Basmati Rice export are Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, and other Middle Eastern countries along with USA & U.K.
Exports can present a new avenue for farmers to sell their produce
Rice & Wheat are among the major food grains for which the government announces a ‘Minimum Support Price’ and facilitates procurement through FCI & State agencies. The procurement by the government helps in ensuring Food security in the country through the initiatives under National Food Security Act (NFSA), and other schemes.
A substantial portion of the Rice & Wheat produced in the country is procured by government. However, this is not uniform across the states with only a few sates benefitting from the MSP provided by the government, with various challenges plaguing the procurement.  Apart from this, there are also challenges with the storage of the procured food grains, with the government procuring more than what is required for food security.
One of the main reasons for farmers selling their produce, especially rice & wheat to FCI & State agencies, wherever feasible is that MSP is usually higher than the market price. With the challenges in marketing & procurement of rice & wheat, exports could potentially provide a new avenue for the farmers to sell their produce at a better price, as witnessed in recent increase in wheat exports due to Russia-Ukraine conflict.
However, the challenges in sales linkages, accessibility of small farmers to these markets would continue to be roadblocks for the farmers. All this would mean middlemen benefitting rather than the farmers. The quality of the rice & wheat produced in India could be another determining factor.
The continued increase in demand for Basmati Rice is an example of the export potential to countries where such a demand exists. In the next part of the story, we look at the trends in production & export of other food grains & pulses.

source: news-factly

license: Creative Commons - Attribution - https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

author: Sai Krishna Muthyanolla


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Data: Road accidents data for 2020 shows the impact of COVID-19 restrictions
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
June 3, 2022
The Road Accidents in India-2020 report was recently released by the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways. The report provides complete statistics relating to  road transportation, including road accidents. Data indicates that the number of road accidents reduced significantly in 2020 on account of the severe movement restrictions induced by COVID-19. However, this reduction is not uniform across states.
Transportation is the lifeline for the economic development of a country. Transportation also plays a key role in minimizing the inequities in the socio-economic development of the nation. Among various modes of transportation, movement by road is the most preferred choice for the majority. Road network is the dominant form of transport in India owing to its ease of access, and flexibility. Unfortunately, it is also the mode of transportation that is ridden with most accidents, and casualties.
India has one of the largest road networks in the world, with over 6.4 million Kilometres of total road length. This vast network provides for the transportation of more than 60% of all goods and services, and more than 90% prefer it as their primary mode of transportation. India also holds a distinct record of having road accidents as one of the major causes of hospitalizations and deaths. India tops the world with more than 10% of global deaths due to road accidents. In addition to the loss of lives, road accidents also inflict a significant socio-economic cost, that adds up to 3 Lakh crores or 1.3% of India’s GDP.
Keeping in mind the considerable socio-economic costs, and the number of lives impacted, it is important to look at the data relating to various aspects of road accidents. In this context, we look at the Road Accidents in India-2020 report (RA-2020), released by the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MORTH).
Ambiguity in data
Before delving into the data, it is important to understand the sources of data. Statistics about road accidents can be found from the below two reports:
The RAI by MORTH gives complete statistics relating to road transportation, including road accidents. The ADSI by NCRB provides statistics on ‘traffic accidents’ which is a cumulative of the number of road accidents, railway accidents, and the number of accidents at railway crossings. The data for ADSI by NCRB is collated using the data provided by the states/UT’s police. The data for Road Accidents in India by MORTH is also sourced from the States/UT’s police, but in the standard format prescribed by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) under the Asia Pacific Road Accident Data (APRAD) base project. The standard format that states follow to report to NCRB is different from the above. Both these organizations report the statistics at the end of the calendar year. Such different formats will lead to different results, a case in point is the number of road accidents in 2020. The ADSI by NCRB reported the number of ‘road accidents’ in India at 3,54,796 while RAI by MORTH reports the same at 3,66,138. Upon state-wise comparison, states like Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and West Bengal showed larger variations in the data in these two reports. Similarly, the APRAD format defines fatal accidents as those accidents that result in death within 30 days of the accident. It is not clear how the NCRB classifies accidents as fatal. This kind of ambiguity in definitions and data collection ends up in vastly different data on the same subject.
Road accidents are declining
The number of road accidents occurring in India had been declining since 2015, except for a marginal increase in 2018. The number of road accidents decreased by nearly 37% from 5,01,423 in 2015 to 3,66,138 in 2020. This percentage decrease is only around 11% if we consider the data till 2019 since 2020 is an outlier year because of the COVID-19 pandemic and the subsequent containment measures in terms of mobility restrictions. The exact reasons for such decline are hard to point out. Nevertheless, factors like better traffic management principles, pro-active initiatives by governments regarding road safety, the introduction of the Motor Vehicle (Amendment) Act, 2019 among other things.
More vehicles, but fewer accidents
India is witnessing significant growth in private vehicle ownership and subsequent motorization. The number of registered vehicles grew consistently over the last decade, thereby increasing the vehicle density which is defined as the number of vehicles per kilometre. It is generally expected that greater vehicle congestion leads to greater number of accidents. However, if we look at the trend of accident rate, i.e., the number of accidents per 10000 kilometres, it is decreasing consistently. The precise reason for such peculiar trend is unknown.
Fewer accidents, but more fatalities
While the declining number of road accidents is a positive sign, the increasing number of fatalities or the accident severity is a huge concern. Road accident severity is defined as the number of fatalities per 100 road accidents. Barring a few fluctuations, the road accident severity has been increasing for the past two decades. This increasing fatalities or accident severity highlights the absence of super-specialty trauma care centres, and lack of traffic calming measures. The ambiguity and the lack of awareness about the ‘Good Samaritan Law’ could also be one of the reasons behind such high fatalities.
Huge inter-state variations in road accidents
Around ten states account for nearly 80% of all the road accidents in the country in 2020. Interestingly, this set of ten states consistently contributes to most of the road accidents in India. Majority of these ten states belong to south-western India, showing the inter-regional differences in the state’s contribution towards road accidents. The exact reason for this kind of concentrated road accident is difficult to. However, economic prosperity could be one of the driving factors behind increasing road accidents in these states as most of these states are economically well off than the others.
Inter-state reductions in road accidents
From the earlier sections, it is evident that the number of road accidents have been declining from the past six years. However, this reduction in the number of accidents is not uniform across the states. Few states record greater decline than the national average, while few others fall below the national average. Nagaland and Dadra & Nagar Haveli recorded an increment in road accidents in 2020 compared with 2019. The National average reduction of accident cases is 18.5% in 2020. Excluding Union Territories and North-Eastern States, the greater reduction in the road accidents is seen in Kerala with 32.2%, followed by Maharashtra with 24.2%, Gujarat with 21.4%, Tamil Nadu with 20.5%, Uttar Pradesh with 19.6%, and Rajasthan with 18.6%. Bigger states like West Bengal, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Odisha, and Andhra Pradesh recorded a reduction level below the national average in the pandemic year of 2020.
Is this reduction due to COVID-19 induced mobility restrictions?
As mentioned earlier, 2020 is an outlier year because of the COVID-19 pandemic. The containment measures to stop the spread of the pandemic resulted in mobility restrictions across the country. The first lockdown started began on 25 March 2020, followed by lockdown 2.0 on 14 April 2020, Lockdown 3.0 from 04 May 2020, and finally Lockdown 5.0 on 24 May 2020. Almost all states enforced strict measures till 31 May 2020. Throughout these two months of lockdown, some or the other forms of restrictions were imposed, effectively rendering most kinds of movements on roads difficult.
In a country where almost 1200 road accidents take place every day, restrictions in mobility for around 60 days could result in significant reductions in total number of road accidents. Though all states were affected by the pandemic, the impact was not equally felt. Some states were more affected which led them to continue restrictions for a longer period, while some states lifted the restrictions quite soon.  The unlock guidelines came into effect from 01 June 2020 and were gradually eased with subsequent guidelines. A total of six unlock guidelines were issued by the Ministry of Home Affairs, which enabled the lifting of restrictions in a phased manner.
States were given the freedom to assess the conditions and impose any restrictions as they deem necessary. Tamil Nadu, which has the largest share of total road accidents, extended its lockdown till 31 July 2020.  States like Mizoram, Jharkhand, extended the lockdown restrictions till the end of August 2020, Punjab extended weekend lockdowns and night curfews till the end of September 2020, Maharashtra eased inter-state movement of persons from the beginning of September 2020 with few other restrictions under COVID-19 lockdown extended till September end. Rajasthan also had similar restrictions with capacity restrictions till the last week of September 2020. Many other states followed their own strategy of imposing lockdowns and curfews based on the assessment of their local conditions.
States like Kerala, Maharashtra, and Tamil Nadu imposed strict lockdown measures. It is therefore understandable that these states showed a greater decline in their share of road accidents in 2020. In effect, lockdown and mobility restricting measures had a positive correlation with the decline in road accidents. However, the true extent of such impact and the precise state-level impact is difficult to corroborate as different states followed different strategies for lifting restrictions in phased and calibrated manner.
In addition to the pandemic, the implementation of New Motor Vehicles Amendment Act, 2019 is also touted to be a reason behind the decrease in the number of road accidents. In an answer to the Parliament, the Minister for Road Transport and Highways pointed out to a majorly declining trend in the accidents and fatalities after the implementation of the said act. Data available from states and UT’s five months after the implementation of the act also supplements the above argument. Additionally, the Ministry had launched the “Integrated Road Accident Database (IRAD)” to generate analytics and data relating to road safety. States such as Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Karnataka, and Madhya Pradesh were chosen as pilots for this database.
More actions are necessary
For a country like India with huge young demographic, deaths due to road accidents should be the last thing be worried about. Instead, it has become the leading cause of death for youth aged between 15-30 years. Losing young potential demographic to something preventable and avoidable is a grave concern, something India cannot afford. It is high time for policy makers and planners to find innovative and cost-effective solutions that cover the issue of transportation comprehensively, right from quality road construction to better traffic management. The starting point of such comprehensive change management could be the implementation of hierarchy of controls, wherever possible.
Featured Image: Road accidents data for 2020


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Data: Robust Measures and Execution Needed to Restore and Increase Mangrove Forests
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
December 1, 2023
Data from the EnviStats India 2022 indicates that India’s overall Mangrove cover has increased to 4,992 square kilometres by the year 2021 compared to 4,046 square kilometres in the year 1987. However, as per the government’s official sources, India has lost about 40% of mangrove forest area in the preceding century before the year 1987.
The Mangroves and their ecological importance are not only widely acknowledged, but also scientifically proven across the globe. According to the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), the Mangroves are extremely important to the coastal ecosystems. The wide variety of their ecological services includes serving as biodiversity hotspots, maintainers of water quality, sequesters of carbon, and providers of livelihood, among many others. They also serve as a buffer between marine and terrestrial communities and protect shorelines from damaging winds, waves, and floods. Because of these diverse benefits, the Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change (MoEF&CC) recognizes them as also being called as ‘Tidal Forests’, ‘Coastal Woodlands’, ‘Walking Forest in the Sea’, ‘Root of the Sea’ and ‘Oceanic Rain Forests’.
Therefore, the importance of mangrove protection, preservation and increasing their cover, especially in the contemporary world of climate change is emphasized by many nations globally. The NDMA itself recognizes that conserving and restoring mangroves is essential to fighting climate change, and the warming of the global climate.
The recently published 2022 edition of the Environmental Statistics Data of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), which is sourced from the Forest Survey of India’s (FSI) State of Forest Report, 2021, shows several important aspects related to the status of mangroves and their coverage in India. In this story, we look at these statistics.
Methodology
The data has been sourced from Mangrove Datasets from Dataful which has been in turn compiled from the information published by MoSPI and FSI. These datasets are used for analysis in this story.
Data shows Increase in Mangrove Forest Area, but the Original Loss has not been fully Restored
The data shows that India’s overall Mangrove cover in the year 1987 was 4,046 square kilometres or 404600 hectares. This has increased to 4,992 square kilometres by the year 2021. Therefore, in nearly 4 decades, the Mangrove has increased by 946 square kilometres.
However, as per the government’s official data itself, India lost about 40% of its mangrove forest area in the preceding century before the year 1987. Therefore, when compared to India’s overall coverage of 4,046 square kilometres in the year 1987, India has lost 1618.4 square kilometres of Mangrove Forest area. Thus, although the overall figure in the last four decades has increased by 946 square kilometres, the remaining about 672.4 square kilometres, which is about 41.5% of lost Mangrove Forest, has not been compensated yet.
Very Less area of Higher Canopy Cover, bulk of Forest is under Degraded Status
The Mangrove cover data has also been classified by quantity of canopy cover as Very Dense, Moderately Dense and Open Mangrove Forests. As per the official definition, the mangrove forests with 70% or more, 40% to 70% and 10% to 40% canopy cover are classified as Very Dense, Moderately Dense and Open Forests, respectively.
The analysis of the data shows that from the year 2003 to 2021, the area under Very Dense and Open Forests has increased from 1162 to 1475 and 1632 to 2036 square kilometres, respectively. However, the area under Moderately Dense Forest has decreased from 1657 to 1481 square kilometres. Thus, the data shows that out of the total 4992 square kilometres of Mangrove Forest as of 2021, the area under less than 70% of canopy cover is 3,517 square kilometres, which accounts for 78% of the total Mangrove Forest area. Within this, the area under less than 40% canopy cover is 2036 square kilometres, which is about 45% of the total mangrove forest area. Therefore, the mangrove forest with very dense or higher canopy cover is only 22% even as of date.
Further, the MoEF&CC defines all forest lands which have a canopy cover of less than 40% as degraded forest land for Compensatory Afforestation (CA). As per the same definition, 45% or 2026 square kilometres of existing mangrove forests in India fall within the category of ‘Degraded Forests.’ Therefore, as per the official definition itself, the bulk of the mangrove forest cover in India is under the status of degradation.
Only 1 in every 7 coastal districts have Higher Canopy Cover Mangroves
India has 9 states and 2 union territories with coastal belt, with a total of 55 coastal districts. As per the data, there are only 8 districts in 4 states and 1 union territory which have very dense mangrove forests, as of 2021. Therefore, on average, only one district in every seven coastal districts of India has a higher canopy cover of 70% or more.
Further analysis of the data also shows that while Odisha and Karnataka have one district each with very dense mangrove forests, the other states viz. West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Andaman and Nicobar Islands have 2 districts each. Among these states, the data shows that the area under very dense mangrove cover in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu states is as low as 0.09 and 1.11 square kilometres, respectively. Therefore, even among the 5 states that have higher canopy cover, 2 states have an almost negligible proportion of the same. The state that tops the list is West Bengal with 994.31 square kilometres, followed by Andaman and Nicobar Islands and Odisha with 398.73 and 80.43 square kilometres of mangrove forests, respectively. Thus, out of the 11 states, only 3 states in India have mangrove forests with reasonably higher canopy cover.
15 coastal districts neither account for Very Dense nor Moderately Dense Forests
The further analysis of the data also shows that 15 out of the total 55 coastal districts with mangrove forests neither account for Very Dense nor Moderately Dense forests. Further, 40 out of the total 55 coastal districts account for only moderately dense and open forests. Even among the 40 districts, 17 and 5 districts account for 1 to 5 and 5 to 10 square kilometres of moderately dense forests, respectively. Therefore, the data shows that 22 out of the 40 districts have below 10 square kilometres of moderately dense mangrove forest area. Overall, there are only 3 and 4 districts with over 50 and 100 square kilometres of moderately dense forests in India.
Robust Measures for Increasing Mangrove Forests and Higher Canopy are the need of the Hour
The above data and analysis show that although there is an overall increase in the area of mangrove forests in India, the overall canopy cover and number of districts with higher canopy cover are still lower. It is also implied by the fact that the average area of very dense, moderately dense, and open forests of all the 11 coastal states stands only at 134.06, 134.62 and 185.15 square kilometres, respectively. Further, the average mangrove cover per each coastal state and district stands out as 453.84 and 90.76 square kilometres, respectively. Thus, when compared to India’s overall coastal length of 7,516 kilometres, the overall mangrove forest cover stands low. Furthermore, as mentioned earlier, India is still short by 672.4 square kilometres in compensating for the original loss of Mangrove forests before 1987. Thus, these facts call for robust measures to restore and increase the mangrove forest area and their canopy cover.
The immediate necessity for robust measures is also substantiated by the prevailing issue of coastal erosion which is being experienced at a higher rate in India. The National Centre for Coastal Research’s (NCCR) recently published report on shoreline changes showed that out of 6,907 kilometres of coastline among 11 states (including 2 union territories) which has been studied for shoreline changes, about 2318.31 kilometres of shoreline is undergone erosion varying from low to moderate and high erosion from the year 1990 to 2018. Therefore, the data clearly shows that in about 3 decades, over 33% of the Indian coast has undergone and continuing to undergo erosion. Yet another NCCR report of 2016 provides district-wise details of coastal erosion which has taken place by the year 2016. The analysis of these NCCR reports and the FSI reports of mangrove forest cover reveal that there are several coastal districts which do not have mangrove forests with higher canopy cover, and which have undergone and continue to undergo erosion.
Hence, the full restoration and increasing of mangrove cover with higher canopy cover is the need of the hour in India to mitigate and address issues such as coastal erosion among others.
Protective and Progressive Measures with Community Involvement could pave the Way
It is an officially acknowledged fact that due to climate change, compared to the pre-industrial era, the global temperature has increased by about 1.1 degrees census. In India, the mean temperature rise in the last century is 0.7 degrees. The consequential impacts of this climate change have been experienced across the globe and in India. These include serious issues such as seasonal imbalances, more than normal cyclones, floods, wind speeds, etc., impacting various sections of society. The worst affected still are the coastal and other communities that depend on mangroves and seas for their livelihoods. One of the proficient ways to mitigate and address some of these is to raise mangroves which are known to be climate resilient, and mitigate coastal erosion, among other benefits.
Therefore, it requires a collective effort with the involvement of the dependent communities in protecting and raising the mangrove cover. Both in India and across the globe, some initiatives of mangrove protection and raising are taking place through the involvement of local communities. In India, there are a couple of such initiatives named Conservation and Management of Mangroves and Coral Reefs (CMMCR) and Enhancing Climate Resilience of India’s Coastal Communities (ECRICC). Such initiatives are also taking place in some other countries. These are implemented by respective governments with other agencies such as UNDP, etc.
However, in terms of the larger prevailing issues in India, more such initiatives with effective implementation are necessary. The recent initiative called District Environmental Plans (DEP), aimed at addressing district-level environmental issues, could be utilized to address the issue of mangroves protection, and raising. The CPCB has issued an order on the list of environmental issues which can be taken up under DEP at the district level. Although the document does not explicitly state that coastal protection measures or mangrove forest raising can be taken up under DEP, it however gives the discretion to local authorities to take up the issues which are more important than those enlisted in the document. Therefore, under DEP, some of the coastal district authorities can consider protecting and raising Mangroves Forests through the involvement of local communities and others.

created: December 1, 2023


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Data: Rs. 500 & Rs. 2000 notes now account for 87% value of the ‘Currency in Circulation’
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
June 10, 2022
The recently released annual report of the RBI for 2021-22 indicates that the ‘Currency to GDP’ ratio fell to 13.7% by the end of March 2022 from the high of 14.4% by the end of March 2021. However, the share of high-value notes of Rs. 500 & Rs. 2000 in the value of the currency in circulation increased to 87%.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) recently released its Annual Report for the year 2021-22. This is the first Annual report released for the complete year after changing its accounting period from the July-June cycle to the April-March cycle, to align with the government’s financial year.
Details of ‘Currency in Circulation (CIC)’ is among the key information that is provided in RBI’s Annual Report.  In its previous ‘Annual Report of 2020-21’, RBI stated that the thrust of currency management during that year was to make available an adequate quantity of clean notes in circulation in wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. Accordingly, data indicates that there has been a higher increase in the volume of currency in circulation during 2020-21.
In this story, we look at the trends in ‘Currency in Circulation’ as of end-March 2022 based on the latest annual report. Volume & Value of currency notes, trends in various denominations of the currency, etc. are among the various parameters that we analyse in this story.
Notes in Circulation continue to increase in 2021-22 but at a slower rate
The volume of currency notes in circulation implies the number of currency notes that are in circulation. Currently, the Reserve Bank of India issues notes of the denominations – Rs. 2, Rs. 5, Rs. 10, Rs. 20, Rs. 50, Rs. 100, Rs. 200, Rs. 500 & Rs. 2000.
In the latest annual report, RBI states that even during 2021-22, the efforts of RBI remained focused on ensuring an adequate supply of clean banknotes in the economy, in the wake of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic which induced renewed restrictions across the country.
The volume of the currency notes in circulation by end of 2021-22, was 13.05 thousand crores. This is about a 5% increase over the volume by the end of 2020-21 when it was 12.44 thousand crores. While there is an increase in the overall volume, the growth is slower compared to earlier.
As noted earlier, the volume of the currency notes in circulation grew by 4.96% in 2021-22, while in 2020-21, the growth rate was 7.24%. The rate of growth in 2021-22 is better than only one year in the last ten years i.e., in 2017-18 when it was 2.1%.
The value of the total currency notes in circulation also increased in 2021-22 to Rs. 31.06 lakh crores. A growth of 9.86% was registered in the value of the notes in circulation.  In the previous year, growth in the value was 16.77%. Over the last 10 years, the growth in the value of the total currency in 2021-22 is better than only 2016-17 when the total value of currency notes in circulation recorded a negative growth rate of 20%.
On the other hand, the total volume of coins in circulation has also increased from 12.29 thousand crores in 2020-21 to 12.46 thousand crores in 2021-22. Correspondingly, the value of coins in circulation has increased from Rs. 26.8 thousand crores to Rs. 27.9 thousand crores in 2021-22.
Fall in Currency to GDP Ratio during 2021-22 compared to 2020-21
Along with the reduction in the circulation of cash, a lower ‘Currency to GDP’ ratio is also one of the intended objectives of demonetization. As highlighted, the trend in ‘currency in circulation’ indicates a contrasting picture with a year-on-year increase both in terms of volume & value.
With a growing economy, the currency in circulation is bound to increase. Hence ‘Currency to GDP’ ratio is a better indicator to understanding the extent of cash in the economy. During Demonetization i.e., by the end of 2015-16, Currency-GDP ratio was 12.1%. This fell to 8.7% by the end of 2016-17.
However, in the ensuing years, there has been a year-on-year increase in the Currency-GDP ratio. It has recorded the highest jump post-demonetization in 2020-21, where-in it was 14.4% i.e., an increase by 2.2 points over the previous year.  RBI’s data indicates that the Currency-GDP ratio by the end of 2021-22 fell to 13.7%, a drop of 0.7% from the high of 2020-21.
As already highlighted, while the value of the currency in circulation has continued to increase in 2021-22, the growth rate was lower than earlier. RBI’s annual report indicates that unlike the fall in GDP during 2020-21, the economy has registered a growth in 2021-22, despite the impact of 2nd & 3rd waves of the COVID-19 pandemic.
While the Currency-GDP ratio for 2021-22 is lower than the previous year, it is still higher than both the pre- & post-demonetization years. In fact, it is the second-highest in the 10-year period between 2012-13 to 2021-22, after 2020-21.  Whether this falling trend will continue as the economy grows to post the pandemic remains to be seen.
Rs. 500 notes constitute 35% of the total currency notes in circulation during 2021-22
As per RBI’s Annual Report, only the currency notes of Denominations Rs. 20, Rs. 200 & Rs. 500 have registered an increase in the volume in circulation. The number of Rs. 20 notes increased from 0.91 thousand crores to 1.1 thousand crores. There was also a slight increase in the number of Rs. 200 notes in circulation. However, the major increase was in Rs. 500 notes, which increased from 3.87 thousand crores to 4.55 thousand crores in 2021-22.
Rs. 500 currency notes already have the highest share of the total currency notes in circulation, which further increased in 2021-22. By the end of 2020-21, Rs. 500 notes accounted for 31.1% of the total currency notes in circulation, which further increased to 34.9% by end of 2021-22.
The share of Rs. 20 notes have also increased from 7.3% by the end of 2020-21 to 8.4% by the end of 2021-22.
Rs. 10 notes, which form the second-highest volume of currency notes in circulation, have seen a declining share. Their share fell from 23.6% by the end of 2020-21 to 21.3% by the end of 2021-22.
In an earlier story, we highlighted the fall in the volume of Rs. 2000 notes in circulation. This is the highest value denomination, introduced after demonetization. By the end of 2021-22, the circulation of Rs. 2000 notes fell further to 0.21 thousand crores, from 0.25 thousand crores by the end of 2020-21. This translates to a fall in share from 2% to 1.6%.
RBI data also indicates that there was no indent for printing new notes of Rs. 2000 even during 2021-22 like the immediately preceding years. Meanwhile, there is an increase in the indent for Rs. 500 and Rs. 10 notes in 2021-22.
Rs. 500 notes make up 73% of the total value of currency notes in circulation
In an earlier story, we highlighted the increase in the share of Rs. 500 notes in terms of the total value of the currency in circulation. The total value of Rs. 500 notes that are in circulation by end of March 2022 were Rs. 22.77 lakh crores. This constitutes 73.3% of the total value of the currency in circulation. By end-March 2021, the total value of Rs. 500 currency notes in circulation were Rs.19.33 lakh crores, which was 68.4% of the total value of currency notes in circulation.
On the other hand, the share in the value of other high denomination notes i.e., Rs. 2000 currency note continues to fall. By the end of March 2021, they accounted for 17.3% of the total value of currency notes in circulation but fell to 13.8% by end of March 2022. It ought to be noted that at the time of introduction of Rs. 2000 notes i.e., in 2016-17, the share in its value was more than 50%.
The overall value of ‘high-value currency’ denominations i.e., Rs. 500 & Rs. 2000 increased from 85.7% by the end of 2021-22 to 87.1% by the end of 2021-22, contributed by the increase in the share of Rs. 500 notes.
Data indicates that a continued increase in currency in the system
Reducing the circulation of currency in the system, especially high-value currency, and hence a lower ‘Currency to GDP’ ratio was one of the main goals of demonetization. However, the data indicates a contrary trend.
While RBI has stated its intent to increase the supply of cash in view of the COVID-19 pandemic, the increasing trend in currency circulation was visible even before the pandemic. As already pointed out earlier in this story, while the ‘Currency to GDP’ ratio has reduced compared to last year, it remains to be seen if this trend would hold in the coming years.


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Data: Rural Areas Accounted for More Than Two Thirds of Fatalities in Road Accidents at The National Level
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
November 21, 2023
Data from the ‘Road Accidents in India-2022’, published by the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways indicates that the number of road accidents & fatalities has increased in 2022 to reach pre-pandemic levels after a decline in 2020 & 2021. The data also indicates that rural areas accounted for more than two-thirds of the fatalities in road accidents while about 70% of the accidents were caused due to over-speeding.
Road accidents in India have been a longstanding concern due to their high incidence and impact. As India is witnesses a rapid expansion of road infrastructure and increasing number of vehicles, the number of accidents and fatalities is also increasing. Its impact is far-reaching and affects various facets of society including loss of lives, injuries & disabilities, economic burden, and disruption of livelihoods, among others.
The Annual Report, ‘Road Accidents in India’ is published by the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH). It provides comprehensive data on various aspects of road accidents, including contributing factors, time and locations, and their impact on different categories of road users. It is based on the information received from police departments of States/UTs on a calendar year basis in standardized formats as provided by the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP) under the Asia Pacific Road Accident Data (APRAD) base project. The report for 2022 was published recently.
As observed earlier, the number of accidents and fatalities in 2020 and 2021 had declined due to the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak and the resultant stringent nationwide lockdown which was phased out gradually. However, in 2022, a total of 4.61 lakh road accidents were reported across the country which claimed the lives of nearly 1.69 lakh persons and left over 4.43 lakh persons injured. In the year 2022, the number of accidents, fatalities and persons injured have gone back to the pre-pandemic levels.
Severity of road accidents has increased gradually over the years
The data from 2005 to 2022 reveals an increase in the number of persons killed in road accidents. An indicator used in the report to monitor road accidents is the extent of road accident severity. It is measured as the number of deaths/fatalities per 100 accidents. A higher severity means there are more fatalities relative to the total number of accidents.
The severity of road accidents has increased from 21.6 to 36.5 in 2022. This means that for every 100 road accidents, 22 lives were claimed in 2005, which has now increased to 37 in the last three years. In absolute figures, the severity was the highest in 2021 when it touched 37.3.
Fatalities in rural areas has gone up by nearly 35% in the last decade
The share of urban areas in accidents and fatalities has dropped over the years. Data for the last decade, from 2013 to 2022 shows that the share of road accidents in urban areas has dropped from nearly 46% until 2015 to less than 40% in the last three years. Meanwhile, the same has increased for rural areas.
While the number of accidents in urban areas has reduced in the last decade, the number of fatalities in these accidents has not varied much. It has been below 60,000 throughout. The number of persons injured has also decreased over the years. However, in rural areas, not only has the number of accidents increased by 7.8% between 2013 and 2022, but the number of fatalities has also gone up by 34.5% during this period. Except for 2020 and 2021, the number of persons injured has revolved around 2.7 lakhs in rural areas. Rural areas accounted for more than two-thirds of fatalities in road accidents at the national level.
Highways account for 5% of the road network but more than 50% of the accidents
The National and State Highways which accounted for only 5% of India’s total road network saw a disproportionately larger share of accidents. Every year, on average, 55% of the total road accidents take place on both highways together. Higher vehicle speeds and an increasing volume of traffic may be the reasons behind this. The share of accidents on National Highways (including Expressways) has increased from 28% in 2013 to 33% in 2022 while that on State Highways stood at an average of 25%.
The fatalities reported on the Highways accounted for more than 60% of the total fatalities across all the years considered. The share of fatalities on the National Highways went up from 33% to 36% in the last decade while that on State Highways dropped from nearly 30% to 24%. Other roads include District Roads, Rural Roads, Urban Roads, and Project Roads which accounted for 39% of the fatalities in 2022, up from 37% in 2013. The share of injured persons was around 44% throughout the years on ‘other roads’ while it increased from 29% to 33% on National Highways.
7 in 10 accidents and fatalities were due to over-speeding
Data on the traffic rules violated resulting in road accidents has been considered from 2017 to 2022. The categorization of the data is uniform for this period which makes comparison easier to understand the trends.
Over-speeding was the main violation associated with accidents and fatalities between 2017 and 2022. Every year, about 70% of the accidents were due to over-speeding. It also accounted for about 70% of the fatalities in 2021 and 2022, up from 64% in 2018.
Lane indiscipline or driving on the wrong side was the cause of about 5% of the accidents between 2018 and 2022. It was also the cause of about 5.6% of the fatalities during this period. Driving after consuming alcohol or drugs resulted in around 2.4% of the accidents between 2018 and 2022 and constituted about 2.7% of the fatalities. The use of mobile phones caused about 1 to 2% of the accidents and fatalities. The share of accidents and fatalities due to jumping red lights is below 1% and declined over the years.
Others is a residual category for tying up the totals and include accidents /fatalities on account of reasons other than human errors listed above.
Road accidents cost 5 to 7% of India’s GDP
According to a World Bank’s study, India accounted for only 1% of the world’s vehicles, yet almost 10% of all crash-related deaths globally were reported from India. Road crashes were estimated to cost the Indian economy between 5 to 7% of the GDP. Considering the human and economic cost of road accidents, India must implement stringent measures to bring accidents down.
MoRTH implements a multi-pronged strategy to address the issue of road safety based on Education, Engineering (both roads and vehicles), Enforcement and Emergency Care. It implements various programs to spread awareness of road safety. Road safety has also been made an integral part of road design from the planning stage as well as in vehicle engineering. The Motor Vehicles Amendment Act of 2019 also increased the punishment and penalties for road rules violations. A Good Samaritan Scheme is also in place to encourage citizens to help the victims of accidents. However, these measures are not enough to address the issue, as revealed by the data.
A more focused approach is needed to deal with these accidents and their impact. For instance, a higher share of fatalities in rural areas may be because of inadequate trauma care facilities/emergency medical facilities. The increasing severity of accidents also calls for the need for improve trauma care, impact-calming measures, and improved safety systems in vehicles.

created: November 21, 2023


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Data: Russian Crude Oil Accounted for More Than 19% of Total Crude Imports to India in 2022-23
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
June 1, 2023
As noted earlier, the increase in India’s exports was largely driven by the increase in exports of ‘Petroleum Products’. In the case of the import of Crude oil, the share of Russia increased from a mere 1.34% in 2017-18 to 19.13% in 2022-23, an increase of almost 15 times.
This is the second part of the two-part series on India’s foreign trade. The first part dealt with the changing trends in exports. In this story, we look at India’s imports and the associated trends. One must be careful in looking at the percentage share, as it might not reflect the actual picture of the absolute value.
Russia becomes the fourth largest import source for India.
In the backdrop of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the subsequent cut-off of energy imports from Russia by Western countries, India had emerged as one of the biggest purchasers of crude oil from Russia. The share of imports from Russia in 2012-13 was 0.86% of India’s total imports, which then rose to 1.84% in 2017-18. After a brief decline, the share of Russian imports jumped from 1.61% in 2021-22 to 6.4% in 2022-23, making it the fourth-largest import source for India. It moved up 16 ranks to become the fourth largest, as compared to 2021-22.
Meanwhile, the share of imports from China declined for the third consecutive fiscal, decreasing from 16.53% in 2020-21 to 13.80% in 2022-23.  On the flip side, the share of imports from the United Arab Emirates grew for the sixth year straight, rising from 4.67% in 2017-18 to 7.46% in 2022-23.
Mineral oils, Pearls & Electrical machinery account for more than 50% of India’s imports
At a commodity level, ‘mineral fuels, oils, and distillation products’ (hs code 27) account for more than one-third of India’s imports in 2022-23. This category is followed by ‘Pearls, precious stones, metals, coins’ (hs code 71), accounting for 10.35% in 2022-23. The share of this category has been declining since 2020-21 from 13.99% to 10.35% in 2022-23. A similar trend can be seen for ‘electrical machinery and equipment’ (hs code 85), whose share declined from 11.84% to 9.47% during the same period.
On the contrary, the share of fertilizers in total imports has been on the rise from 1% in 2017-18 to 2.15% in 2022-23.
Petroleum oils & crude dominate India’s imports in 2022-23.
Out of the total imports to India, petroleum oils and crude (hs code 2709) account for more than 22%. While the share is higher than the last two fiscal years, it is almost close to the 2018-19 levels. It is then followed by the coal briquettes and solid fuels obtained from coal (hs code 2701), whose share rose from 3.97% in 2020-21 to 6.73% in 2022-23. This is the highest share of this category over this decade. On the flip side, the share of imports of gold (hs code 7108) stood at 4.90% in 2022-23. This is the least in the last decade.
In absolute terms, the imports of gold (hs code 7108) and diamond (hs code 7102) declined in 2022-23 as compared to 2021-22, whereas coal briquettes and solid fuels obtained from coal (hs code 2701) grew by 56% and petroleum oils and crude (hs code 2709) grew by 32% during the same period.
One-fifth of India’s crude oil purchase is from Russia in 2022-23
More than 80% of India’s crude oil requirements are imported. India is also the third-largest importer and consumer of oil worldwide. Most of India’s oil imports come from the Middle East, primarily from Saudi Arabia and Iraq, followed by Nigeria, UAE, and the United States. Together with Russia & Kuwait, these seven countries account for more than eighty percent of India’s crude oil imports.
India has increased its oil purchases from Russia despite pressure and sanctions from Western countries following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.  From barely 2% in 2021-22, Russian oil currently makes up about 20% of India’s annual imports of crude. The imports of crude oil from Iraq fell from 24.8% in 2021-22 to 20.7% in 2022-23, whereas the share of imports of crude oil from Nigeria fell from 7.02% to 3.74% during the same period.
Electrical imports from Taiwan doubled in 2022-23
The value of ‘electrical machinery and equipment’ (hs code 85) in the total imports grew by 8% from 62,488 million USD in 2021-22 to 67,636 million USD in 2022-23. Between 2020-21 and 2021-22, the growth was 34%.
On average, the ‘electrical machinery and equipment’ (hs code 85) accounts for almost 10% of the total imports. Out of the total electrical imports, the share of Taiwan almost doubled from 2.76% in 2021-22 to 5.11% in 2022-23. During the same period, the share of China in electrical imports declined from 48.4% to 40.8%.
Similarly, after a massive growth in the share of electrical imports from 2.5% in 2017-18 to 16.6% in 2018-19, the percentage share of imports from Hong Kong declined consecutively for the fourth fiscal year, dropping from 17.69% in 2019-20 to 11.62% in 2022-23.


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Data: Security Related Incidents & Casualties in Northeast India Decreased Substantially in Last Two Decades Before Manipur Violence
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
June 15, 2023
The ongoing violence in Manipur has resulted in tens of deaths and left hundreds injured. Data from the annual reports of the Ministry of Home Affairs indicates that the number of security related incidents, and casualties in Northeast India reduced significantly in the last two decades before the outbreak of the Manipur violence.
Ethnic clashes erupted in the Northeastern state of Manipur, on 03 May 2023, between the Meitei people, who form a majority in the state and other tribal communities, mainly Kuki and Zo tribes. The large-scale violence is estimated to have resulted in more than 90 deaths and 300 injured. Manipur High Court’s order directing the government to take a decision on the long-standing demand of the Meitei people to accord them the status of Scheduled tribe, is believed to be the trigger to this violence. This demand is being opposed by the other tribal communities, that are a minority in the State.
Northeast India is one of the most ethnically diverse regions. Each of the tribes have their own distinct culture, identity, and differences. Since India’s independence, efforts have been made to integrate the various Northeast tribes into the mainstream political identity of India. Various levels of disagreement exist on this integration as well as coexistence with other tribes. Apart from ethnic identity, underdevelopment, lack of representation, an influx of refugees, etc. have contributed to the insurgency situation in the region.
Here is an analysis of trends in violence and security situations in the Northeast. The data is taken from Dataful’s Dataset on incidents of violence in the Northeast States, which is compiled from Annual reports of the Ministry of Home Affairs.
Decline in the number of Security Related Incidents in Northeast India
The number of security-related incidents reported in Northeast India has reduced over the years. There is a marked difference in the number of incidents in 2021 compared to the incidents reported in 2001.
In 2001, a total of 1338 such incidents were reported. The number of such incidents increased in the ensuing years and peaked at 1561 incidents in 2008. Since then, there is a largely declining trend in the number of incidents reported. During the period 2013-2020, there is a year-on-year fall in the number of security-related incidents. However, there is an increase in the incidents in 2021, with 209 incidents compared to 163 in 2020.
The decline in the number of incidents can be seen across all 7 Northeast states. Manipur followed by Assam reported the highest number of incidents reported over the years. With the exception of 2012, the number of violent incidents reported in Manipur has witnessed a decline since the latter part of the 2000s. Clashes among the different tribal groups and the impact of Naga nationalism in neighbouring state of Nagaland are the main reasons for the unrest in the state.
The situation in Assam was varied with periods of periods of increase and decline in the incidents reported. Comparatively, fewer incidents and a declining trend are seen in the most recent years. Separatist movements, Bodo nationalism, clashes with cross-border migrants, etc have affected peace in Assam. Dialogue and action of security forces in arresting key personnel of the various separatist organisations seem to have helped in reducing the number of violent incidents in the state.
A sustained long period of fewer incidents reported can be seen in Tripura. Even in the case of Meghalaya, lower numbers are reported in recent years after a phase of a comparably higher number of incidents during 2012-15.
No deaths of Security forces in Assam during 2019-21
During the period 2001-2021, 1046 security forces personnel lost their lives in various incidents across the 7 Northeast states. 390 of them were killed in Manipur, which also has the highest number of incidents reported in these 21 years. Another 289 personnel were killed during the same period in Assam. These two states account for 65% of the total security personnel deaths during 2001-2021.
The number of deaths of security forces has reduced in recent years. In fact, there are no deaths recorded in Assam in the last 3 years i.e., from 2019 to 2021. Even in the case of Manipur, there is a decline in the number of security forces killed. The number of deaths during 2017-21 was in single digits.
In the other 5 states, no security personnel deaths are recorded in recent years with few exceptions. The improvement of the situation in Tripura is more remarkable. 208 deaths were recorded in this state during 2001-2021 out of which 192 were between 2001-2006.
5.8 thousand extremists killed in Northeast India during 2001-21
During the period 2001 to 2021, a total of 5,899 extremists were killed in Northeast India. 71% of these extremists were killed in the two states of Assam & Manipur, which have the highest number of reported incidents.  A decline in the number of incidents across these two states and the Northeast as a whole, also meant that the number of extremists killed has also reduced over the years.
During the period 2001-2021, the greatest number of extremists killed in Manipur was in 2008, when 364 extremists were killed. In the following year, 336 extremists were killed in the state.
Data also indicates that around 23.9 thousand extremists were arrested during 2014-2021. As indicated earlier, one of the reasons that have contributed to the fall in security incidents and acts of insurgency by separatist organisations could be the loss of their personnel.
More than 11 thousand extremists surrendered during 2001-2021 in Northeast India. The highest was in 2020 when nearly 2.7 thousand surrendered in the year.
Violence in Northeast has resulted in 4.6 thousand civilian deaths during 2001-2021
Civilian deaths are an unfortunate outcome of any form of violence. The situation has largely improved over the years, with fewer civilian deaths in Northeast India. Over the period 2001-2021, violence in the Northeast has directly contributed to the loss of lives of 4,672 civilians.
Assam has the highest share of civilian deaths with 2,206. Manipur, which has the highest number of reported incidents has reported proportionally fewer civilian deaths compared to Assam. During 2001-2021, a total of 1,062 civilians lost their lives. During 2020, only 2 civilian deaths due to violence were reported in the whole of the Northeast. This increased to 23 in 2021 and may increase many times in 2023 because of the ongoing violence in Manipur.
Featured Image: Violence in Northeast India


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Data: Share of Candidates Attempting ‘UPSC CSE’ First Time and Clearing the Exam Declining
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
June 23, 2023
Data from the UPSC annual reports indicates that the share of candidates attempting the UPSC CSE for the first time and clearing the exam is steadily declining. From 61.9% in 2013, the share of candidates who appeared the examination for the first time went down to 49% in 2020.
The Civil Services Exam (CSE), administered by the Union Public Service Commission (UPSC), is undoubtedly the most difficult and sought-after exam in the nation. Every year, approximately, a thousand positions, including the Indian Administrative Services (IAS), and Indian Police Services (IPS) are filled. The total recruitment process takes nearly 15 months and candidates must endure more than 30 hours of rigorous testing through the entire examination procedure. Factly’s earlier story on the UPSC CSE examination can be read here and here.
Today’s story looks at the emerging trends and similarities in the examination process and results.
Half of the applied candidates do not even appear for the examination.
Annually, lakhs of candidates apply for the CSE. However, only some of them turn out and actually appear for the examination. For example, in 2022, out of the 11.35 lakh candidates, only 5.73 lakh candidates (50.51%) appeared for the examination. The same pattern can be seen in previous years as well, where the turnout is less than 50%. In fact, 2019, 2022 and 2023 are the only years where the turnout is marginally higher than 50% in the last decade. This has been the case with the rest examinations conducted by UPSC.
The low turnout is crucial to understand because UPSC spends almost half of its sanctioned budget outlay only for the purpose of the conduct of Examinations. Such lower turnouts are a depletion of both financial and human resources.
Additionally, as per the information provided to the Department-related Parliamentary Standing Committee on Personnel, Public Grievances, Law and Justice in the 2023-24 Demands for Grants report of DOPT, the entire examination process takes nearly 15 months to complete. The committee observed that such long and lengthy recruitment processes take a toll on the physical and mental health of the candidates. It recommended that any recruitment process should not take more than six months to complete. It further asked the UPSC to examine the reasons for such lower turnouts and share the findings with the committee and also address the same.
Share of candidates appearing for the first-time declining
The difficulty level of the UPSC Civil Services Examination is such that very few people clear it in a single go. Usually, candidates dedicate a good number of years to get through the examination. The data of the candidates appearing in the UPSC CSE preliminary examination validates the difficulty level of the examination. It is found that the share of the candidates who are appearing for the first time in UPSC CSE prelims declined from 61.9% in 2013 to 49% in 2020. This also means that there are a greater number of candidates reappearing in the exam than the ones who are newly attempting.
Further, the share of candidates who cleared the examination in their first attempt and were recommended fell from 14.8% in 2013 to 8.4% in 2020. At a cumulative level, the share of candidates who cleared all the stages of the examination in one to four attempts fell from 85% to 66% during the same period.
Women’s share in the final list cross 30% for the first time in 2022
Like many other professions, civil services have also remained a male-dominated profession. The glass ceilings are slowly being broken, with more and more women choosing to apply and appear for the examination. From 2010 to 2020, the number of female candidates who applied and appeared for the CSE examination grew by approximately 135%, whereas the number of male candidates who applied and appeared for the examination grew by 74% and 62% respectively.
There is also a positive growth rate in the women’s selections over the past few years. The share of female candidates out of the total recommended candidates was 22% in 2010. After ten years, in 2020, female representation rose to the decadal highest of 28%. Following a marginal decline in 2021 to 25.8%, the year 2022 recorded a historic figure of 34% female representation. It is worth noting that female candidates have a greater conversion rate than their counterparts towards the later stages of the examination, as observed in our earlier story.
Apart from the increase in share in total, women also are dominating the list of top scorers. Of the top 25 rankers, 14 candidates were females in 2022.
Optionals: Geography and sociology still opted by many, PSIR new entrant in the most opted list.
The UPSC optional subjects play a significant role in the UPSC mains exam, accounting for one-fourth (500) of the total marks (2025) in the UPSC exam and therefore play a critical role in determining the final rank in the merit list. The candidates can choose any one of the 48 optional subjects that are offered.
The data from 2014 to 2020 indicates that geography and sociology are still among the top 3 subjects that are opted for the most by the candidates. Subjects such as History, and Public Administration are losing appeal and are being replaced by Anthropology and Political Science and International Relations (PSIR). One of the likely reasons behind such choices adopted by the candidates could be the possible overlap of the syllabus of optional subjects with the syllabus of General studies.
The success rates of different optional categories can be read in our earlier story for a better understanding of the rationale behind the candidates choosing any optional.
Featured Image:  UPSC annual reports


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Share of Central Health expenditure under NHM reduces as government launches new health schemes
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
February 19, 2022
The National Health Mission (NHM) has been the flagship health initiative of the government for many years now. In fact, the National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) was launched in 2005. Data of central release of funds under the NHM indicates that the share of central health expenditure under NHM has reduced over the years as the government has launched new health schemes.
The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the gaps in health infrastructure in the country, more importantly, the state of public health infrastructure. The devastating second wave of COVID-19 in 2021 put the health infrastructure under severe strain and also exposed the uneven standards of healthcare infrastructure across states.
Successive governments launched & implemented multiple initiatives to improve the public health infrastructure & services. The National Health Mission (NHM) is the flagship health initiative that aims for the attainment of universal access to equitable, affordable, and quality health care services that are accountable and responsive to people’s needs. The NHM was launched by the Government of India in 2013, subsuming the existing National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) and launching a new National Urban Health Mission (NUHM). The NRHM was launched in 2005.
While the budget allocation for NHM has increased, its share in health expenditure has been reduced
As per union budget 2022-23, the actual expenditure towards NHM in 2020-21 was Rs. 37.48 thousand crores, which is higher than the revised estimate of Rs. 35.5 thousand crores, which in turn was higher than the initial budget estimate of Rs. 34.1 crores.  This is a continuation of the trend observed in earlier years, where the actual expenditure on NHM is higher than both the budget & revised estimates.
Over the years, the revised estimates for NHM have always been more than the budget estimates while the actual expenditure exceeded even the revised estimates. However, contrary to this trend, the revised estimates for 2021-22 are less than the budget estimates.
The actual expenditure on the NHM increased by 64% during the five-year period 2016-17 and 2020-21. During this period, the actual expenditure of the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare (MOHFW) more than doubled from Rs.38.9 thousand crores in 2016-17 to Rs. 80.7 thousand crores in 2020-21. Though NHM is the largest component of the expenditure incurred by MOHFW, its share in total expenditure of the ministry fell from 58.6% in 2016-17 to 46.4% in 2020-21. A portion of this fall can be attributed to Rs. 11.9 thousand crores spent towards managing COVID-19 in 2020-21. Nevertheless, the share of expenditure on NHM of the total expenditure of the ministry has been declining over the years.
As per the revised estimates for 2021-22 & 2022-23, the share of NHM is expected to fall further. The increase in spending on other schemes has resulted in the fall of NHM’s share. Schemes such as the Pradhan Mantri Jan Arogya Yojana (PMJAY), Pradhan Mantri Swasthya Suraksha Yojana (PMSSY), & the newly introduced Pradhan Mantri – Ayushman Bharat Health Infrastructure Mission (PM-ABHIM) have seen increased allocations in the last few years.
UP, Rajasthan & MP among the states with most central funding under NRHM
In 2019-20, a total of Rs. 27.99 thousand crores were released by the Centre to States & UTs under the NRHM. Out of this, the greatest amount was released to UP (Rs. 4.63 thousand crores), which is 2.5 times more than the amount released to Rajasthan which received Rs. 1.75 thousand crores and is second in the list of states with the most amount released under NRHM.
Assam, Madhya Pradesh & West Bengal are among the top-5 states receiving the greatest amount in 2019-20. The top-10 states make up 66% of the total amount released by the centre under NRHM in 2019-20.  Since these 10 states are among large states in the country, higher release to them is understandable.
In 2020-21, UP received lower than the amount released in 2019-20 but was still the recipient of the greatest amount under NRHM among all the States. On the other hand, most of the other states have seen an increase in the amounts released to them under NRHM in 2020-21 compared to 2019-20.
For 2021-22, only 36% of the allocated funds towards NRHM were released by the Centre as of 24 November 2021.  The greatest amount was released was to MP, followed by Bihar & Assam.
MP & Maharashtra spent proportionately higher amounts than received from the Centre
NHM is a Centrally sponsored scheme i.e., a proportion of the overall outlay (60%) is given by the Centre and the rest 40% is met by the states. The total expenditure of the States for NHM each year is the sum of the Central release during that year, State releases during the year and any unspent balance at the beginning of the year. Hence the total expenditure of the states towards NHM would be more than the central release.
UP, the state with the greatest amount of central release under NRHM also reported the greatest total expenditure under the scheme. However, the order of the other states in terms of total expenditure under NRHM is not the same as their place in the amount of central release.  Assam & Rajasthan which are among the top three states in terms of central funding rank lower in terms of total expenditure under NRHM. In contrast, Maharashtra, which ranks lower in terms of the amount received from the Center, has spent more under NRHM. The same can be said about Tamil Nadu, AP & Karnataka. The spending towards COVID-19 management in 2020-21 could be one of the reasons for this trend as some of these states were badly affected by the pandemic.
Maharashtra, UP & Tamil Nadu are among the states to receive a higher allocation from the Centre under NUHM
As is the case with NRHM, the ranking of the states in terms of central release of funds and the total expenditure of the state varies for NUHM.  In 2019-20 & 2020-21, Maharashtra tops the list of the states with the greatest central release under NUHM. However, in terms of total expenditure, UP spent the most.
While the funds received from the centre by Maharashtra has remained nearly the same in both the years, the total expenditure towards NUHM has increased in 2020-21. Maharashtra being the worst affected state by COVID-19 could be the major reason.
Andhra Pradesh is another state which also has reported a substantial increase in expenditure in 2020-21 compared to 2019-20.  The central release of funds towards NUHM has not increased even during 2020-21. The total expenditure incurred by states increased from Rs. 1.6 thousand crores in 2019-20 to 1.79 thousand crores in 202021, mostly due to the increase in expenditure by Maharashtra, AP, WB, Telangana & Kerala.
As of 24 November 2021, only a fifth i.e., Rs. 201.9 crores were released by the Centre for 2021-22, out of the allocated Rs. Thousand crores.
10.9 thousand 24*7 PHCs, 1.6 thousand Operational Mobile medical units among the achievements of NHM
In a written reply provided in Lok Sabha on 17 December 2021, the Government of India highlighted the following achievements under NHM.
Th reply by the government also provides the physical achievements under NHM.
While directly not attributing it to the NHM, the government also highlighted the COVID-19 related initiatives. It has also highlighted the PM-ABHIM scheme, which was mentioned earlier in this story.
Featured Image: Share of Central Health expenditure

created: February 19, 2022


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Share of Cesses & Surcharges increase from 10.4% to 15.3% of Gross Tax Revenue in 10 years
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
March 5, 2021
The issue of Central Cesses has been a contentious one since the amount collected through Cesses & surcharges is kept out of the divisible pool. The 15th Finance Commission report submitted recently highlights that the share of ‘Cesses & Surcharges’ in Gross Tax Revenue has increased from 10.4% to 15.3% in 10 years.
The Fifteenth Finance Commission (XVFC) submitted its Final Report with recommendations for the period 2021-26 on 01 February 2021. Earlier, it submitted its first report, consisting of the recommendations only for 2020-21 during February 2020.  Among the key recommendations is that the share of States in the Central taxes was recommended at 41% for the period 2021-26. This is the same as the earlier recommendation made for 2020-21.
XVFC has estimated that the Gross revenue for this period would be Rs. 125.2 lakh crores and the extent of the divisible pool is estimated at Rs. 103 lakh crores i.e., around 82%. The Divisible pool is calculated after deducting the Cesses, surcharges & cost of collection for the Gross revenue. The grants to the states are estimated to be another Rs.10.33 lakh crores.
In a recent interview, N.K.Singh, Chairman of the Fifteenth Finance Commission, has stated that they have recommended more grants to states to compensate for the Cess. Responding to another question about the shrinking of the effective devolution of the share to states because of increased reliance of Centre in cess & surcharge, N.K. Singh opined that there needs to be a public debate of what constitutes a divisible pool to the states. He stated that the inclusion of cess & surcharge in a divisible pool is beyond the purview of the finance commission and it requires a constitutional amendment. However, he did acknowledge that the incidence of Cess & Surcharge between the 14 & 15 Finance commission has gone up.
His statement is in line with an argument that the share of cess & surcharges has increased over time in the central tax revenues which have effectively resulted in States receiving lesser amounts since cess & surcharges are left out of the divisible pool.
But what is Cess? How is it different from other taxes? Why do the States not have a share of the revenue generated through Cess? Here is a brief review.
Cess is levied as an additional tax and is for a specific purpose
Cess is imposed as an additional tax besides the existing tax whereas surcharge is a tax on tax, with the purpose of raising the funds for a specific purpose. For example, the Swachh Bharat cess is levied by the government for the various cleanliness initiatives under Swachh Bharat Mission.
It is one of the means for the Union government to raise revenue apart from other forms of taxes, fees, etc. Broadly, the following are the differences between Cess and Tax.
The term ‘Cess’ finds reference in two separate articles of the Constitution. Article 270 (1) & 277.  In the latter i.e. Article 277, the reference is to the continuation of taxes, fees, cess, etc. which are already levied prior to the Indian constitution coming into effect.
Article 270 (1) on the other hand mentions that various taxes form part of the divisible pool, whose proceeds are distributed between Union & States. It further highlights that any ‘cess’ levied for ‘specific purposes’ under any law passed by the Parliament is an exception i.e., they are not part of the divisible pool.
The term ‘specific purpose’ is considered as the key to the idea of imposing any cess. It ought to be noted that the current form of Article 270 with the special mention of Cess being an exception is after the Eightieth Constitutional Amendment Act made in 2000. This Amendment Act gave the constitutional sanction to the earlier practice of keeping cess taxes and surcharges outside the divisible pool.
Cesses were earlier kept out of divisible pool based on Finance Commission recommendations
Prior to the 80 constitutional amendment, the practice of keeping Cess out of the divisible pool was based on recommendations of successive Finance Commissions.
The first instance was in the report of the Fourth Finance Commission (1965). Chapter 6 of the report noted it is undesirable to share the cess proceeds with the State governments as the legislation under which the cesses are levied have already earmarked the purpose of the proceeds.
This stand was continued in the recommendations of Fifth, Sixth & Seventh Finance conditions. The Eighth Finance Commission disallowed the sharing as it opined that this could result in diverting of the funds for unintended purposes. The Tenth Finance Commission reiterated the earlier view that cess is levied for a specific purpose and the utilization is governed by relevant legislation, hence cannot be part of the divisible pool.
Based on the amendment as part of the 80 Constitutional Amendment, the Thirteenth Finance Commission rejected the demand of States to include Cess in the divisible pool.  This was reiterated further by the Fourteenth & Fifteenth Finance Commission, which opined that there is a need for a constitutional amendment to include Cess as part of the divisible pool.
Introduction of GST in 2017 has resulted in subsuming of many of the Cesses
As per a Study Report commissioned by the Fifteenth Finance Commission, there are 42 cesses that were levied at different points of time since 1944.
As per this study, the first cess levied was on ‘Matches’. There are various reasons specified for the purpose of levying a cess. A good portion of the reasons for the Cess was linked to the development of a specific industry. For example, Salt Cess in 1953., or for the purpose of welfare of workers/labourers, for e.g., Cess on Mica Mines in 1946 or the Iron Ore mines labour welfare Cess in 1961.
The introduction of Goods and Services Tax (GST) in 2017 has resulted in most of the cesses being done away with. However, the following Cesses are still levied:
In the recent Budget, the Government of India introduced Agriculture Infrastructure Development Cess.
Agriculture has received emphasis in #Budget2021, allocation for credit flow through NABARD increased, we are bringing in Agriculture Infrastructure Development Cess through restructuring, without consumers having to pay more: FM @nsitharaman #AatmanirbharBharatKaBudget pic.twitter.com/ffR4IbARzO
Unlike other Cesses collected by the Central government, States get a share GST Compensation Cess. In fact, the purpose of the ‘GST Compensation Cess’ is to compensate States which lose out on the revenue due to the introduction & implementation of GST.
Increase in Cess revenue and its utilization raise questions on keeping it out of divisible pool
The initial premise as observed by the earlier finance commissions regarding Cess was that it is earmarked for a specific purpose and hence it is not logical to give the states a share of Cess proceeds. However, there have been questions and apprehensions around the utilization of Cess collected over the years. The CAG (Comptroller & Auditor General) has many times highlighted the non-utilization or misutilization of the Cess amount.
Further, as per the information provided in XV Finance Commission Report, the share of Cess & Surcharges in 2010-11 was 11.1% of the total Gross Tax Revenue. However, by 2018-19, it increased to 15.3% and the Budget Estimate for 2020-21 also pegs it at 15.3% (excluding GST compensation Cess). This increased share of Cesses is at the cost of decreased share of other tax revenues, which in turn reduces the amount in the divisible pool. States are hence losing out on their share in central tax revenue. We will explore this & the utilization of the various cesses in the next story.
Featured Image: Gross Tax Revenue


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Data: Share of Crops in Total Gross Value Output of Agriculture and Allied Activities Reduced by 7% in The Last Decade
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
May 16, 2023
The State-wise and item-wise value of output from agriculture, forestry, and fishing covers state-wise and item-wise values of output for the years 2011–12 to 2020–21 at constant (2011–12) and current prices. Of the total Gross Value Output (GVO) at Constant Prices (2011-12), the share of crops fell from 62.4% in 2011-12 to 54.9% during 2020-21.
Agriculture and allied activities play an important role in the Indian economy. Over the years, with improving technology, these sectors have undergone significant changes. Agriculture and allied activities remain the broadest economic sector demographically and contribute significantly to the nation’s growth and have a significant influence on the socio-economic fabric of the country.
Therefore, it is vital to examine how the value of output for various commodities from the agricultural and related sectors has changed over time in various States and UTs, both in nominal and real terms. The State-wise and item-wise value of output from agriculture, forestry and fishing,  is the 15th publication covering state-wise and item-wise values of output for the years 2011–12 to 2020–21 at constant (2011–12) and current prices.
Data sources and collection Methodology
Data is sourced from multiple sources such as the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare, Directorates of Economics and Statistics of states and UTs, Coffee Board, Tea Board, Silk Board, Rubber Board, Food Corporation of India, Forest Survey of India, Central Bureau of Narcotics, Directorate of Areca nut & Spices Development, Cashew nut and Cocoa Development Board among many others.
The estimation of GVA involves the valuation of the products, by-products and ancillary activities at prices received by the producers after deducting the value of inputs consumed in the production stages at purchasers’ prices. The agriculture unit of the National Accounts Division (NAD), and the National Statistical Office (NSO) compiles and publishes the report.
The estimates at the prevailing prices of the current year are termed “at current prices”, while those prepared at base year prices (2011-12) are termed as “at constant prices”. The comparison of the estimates at constant prices, which means “in real terms”, over the years gives the measure of real growth. For a detailed understanding of the methodology of estimation, please refer to these NSO Publications, ‘National Accounts Statistics, Sources and Methods, 2012’ and ‘Changes in Methodology in the New Series on National Accounts (Base Year 2011-12)’
No significant improvement in the share of agriculture and allied activities in total GVA.
India holds the second largest arable land (156 million hectares) in the world. It is the second-largest producer of ground nuts, fruits, vegetables, sugarcane, and tea in the world, and third largest in cereals. It also ranks first in the production of jute and has the biggest herds of buffaloes and goats in the world, second in cattle and sheep, and is seventh in terms of chicken population. It ranks first in the production of milk, third in that of eggs, and fifth in that of meat.
Yet, the share of agriculture and allied activities in the total Gross Value Added (GVA) remains almost stagnant. In 2011-12, the share of agriculture, forestry, and fisheries in the total GVA at constant prices accounted for 18.5%, which grew to 20.3% of the GVA in 2020–21. Though the share of agriculture and allied activities is the highest in the last decade, it is nevertheless a minimal growth considering the strategic importance of the sector.
Share of Crops in the total output declined by 7 percentage points in the last decade.
Agriculture and allied activities are further divided into four main subsectors, namely crops, livestock, forestry and logging, and fishing and aquaculture. Of the total Gross Value Output (GVO) at Constant Prices (2011-12), the share of crops fell from 62.4% in 2011-12 to 54.9% during 2020-21. The share of livestock grew from 25.6% to 30.6%, while the share of forestry and logging rose from 7.8% to 8.4% during the same period. Fishing and aquaculture’s share increased from 4.2% to 6.1% during this period.
Five states account for 70% of all-India output of oilseeds.
The oilseeds group consists of soyabean, groundnut, rapeseed and mustard, coconut, castor, and others. The percentage share of soyabean in the total output of oilseeds at constant prices was 26.6% in 2011-12, which fell to 23.2% in 2020-21. A similar decline was observed in the share of coconut and castor which decreased from 12.5% to 9.9% and 10.6% to 6.6% respectively during the same period. Groundnut and rapeseed & mustard registered an increase in their shares from 23% to 28.5% and 20.9% to 26.3% respectively during the corresponding period.
Five states namely Gujarat, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Maharashtra account for more than two-thirds of the total all-India output of oilseeds in India. In 2020-21, Rajasthan tops with 20.9%, followed by Gujarat at 20%, Maharashtra at 13.1%, Madhya Pradesh at 11.8% and Tamil Nadu at 5.8%, when calculated at constant prices (2011-12).
Uttar Pradesh alone accounts for more than half of all India output of sugar crops in 2020-21.
Sugarcane, excluding ‘sugarcane used for gur making’, accounted for nearly 79% of the output of the ‘sugars’ group of crops in 2011-12. However, in 2020–21, its percentage in this group rose to around 81%. During this time, both the outputs of gur and sugarcane (apart from that utilized to make gur) fluctuated.
Six states namely Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Bihar, and Gujarat account for more than 90% of the all-India output of the ‘sugars’ group in 2020-21 at constant prices. Out of these six states, Uttar Pradesh alone accounts for more than half (50.9%) of all-India output, followed by Maharashtra at 19.5%, Karnataka at 7.7%, and Gujarat at 4.7%.
Interestingly, the share of Tamil Nadu in the Gross Value Output (GVO) of the ‘sugars’ group fell from 11.4% in 2011-12 to 3.5% in 2020-21 yet remains one of the top six states. The rest of the five states improved/maintained their share during this period.
Andhra Pradesh doubles its growth in the output of fishing and aquaculture in 2020-21
The Gross Value of Output at constant prices, of the fishing and aquaculture subsector progressively increased from nearly 80 thousand crores in 2011–12 to more than 159 thousand crores in 2020–21. The share of ‘Inland Fisheries’ out of the total in 2011-12 was 57.7%, which declined to 52.7% in 2020-21, while the same quantum of increase can be seen in marine fish during the same period.
The state-wise data shows that despite increasing the value of output in fishing and aquaculture over the years, the share of West Bengal out of overall India’s output has decreased from 24.6% in 2011-12 to 15.3% in 2020-21. The share of Kerala also fell from 5.9% to 2.9%, while on the contrary, the share of Andhra Pradesh rose significantly from 17.7% to 40% during the same period.