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Share of Crude Oil imported for domestic needs crossed 89% in 2019-20
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
February 23, 2021
The PM recently spoke about India’s dependence on crude oil imports. Data indicates that the share of crude oil imported to meet domestic demand has increased steadily in the last few years and crossed 89% in 2019-20. On the other hand, domestic production has steadily decreased during the same period.
Addressing a recent online event, Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated that if the previous governments had focused on reducing India’s energy import dependence, the Indian middle-class would have been less burdened. This statement comes on the backdrop of rising fuel prices in the country with the price of petrol closing in on Rs. 100 in a few of the states. He further remarked that India imported over 85% of its oil needs & 53% of its gas requirement in 2019-20, highlighting India’s energy import dependence.
Later, Dr. Shashi Tharoor, INC’s MP from Thiruvananthapuram, referred to the statement by the PM in his tweet and pointed out that in spite of the 7-year rule of the BJP, India still imports 82% of its crude oil requirements.
In the tweet, he further highlighted that the increase in net import of crude oil, wherein it was 132.78 MTs in 2008-09 and increased to 220.43 MTs in 2017-18.
Information provided by the government indicates an increasing reliance in import of Crude Oil
The information provided by the Union government indicates an increase in the share of Crude oil imports corresponding to the crude oil requirements.  Responding to a question in the Lok Sabha on 08 February 2020, the Union Minister for Petroleum and Natural Gas provided the details of – Crude oil imports, domestic production, and Crude oil processed/consumed in the country.
As per this information, the ‘Total crude oil processing quantity (consumption of Crude)’ in 2017-18 was 251.9 MMT (Million Metric Tonnes), of which crude oil imports were 220.4 MMT i.e., 87.5% of the total processed crude oil.
In the subsequent two years of 2018-19 & 2019-20, the processing quantity was 252.2 MMT and 254.4 MMT respectively, with a YOY increase in the volume of crude oil imported with 226.5 MMT and 227 MMT. The increase in import volume resulted in an increase in the share of imports out of the total processed quantity to 88.1% and 89.2% respectively.  During these three years, there is a gradual decline in domestic crude oil production.
Consistent increase in the country’s Crude oil requirement over the last two decades
As per the information provided by PPAC (Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell), the crude oil requirement i.e. Crude oil processing quantity for the year 2020-21 as of January’ 2021 was 182 MMT (Million Metric Tonnes).
In the previous year i.e., 2019-20, it was 254 MMT. This was the first time since 1998-99 that the volume of processed crude was less than the previous year. In 2018-19, the volume of processed crude was 257 MMT. This is in continuation of the slow growth rate in the processed crude volume observed in recent years. In fact, during the current regime of NDA since 2014, the highest single-year increase was recorded in 2016-17 when the volume of processed crude increased by 12.5 MMT i.e., an increase of 5.4% over the previous year. Apart from recording the only negative growth for over two decades, the lowest growth in the volume of crude processed was also during the current regime when the increase was a mere 0.36% in 2014-15.
Comparatively, there has been a higher increase in the volume of crude processed during the 10-year UPA rule (i.e., 2004-2014). Even the Consumption of Petroleum Products has displayed a similar trend over the years. In 1998-99, 90.5 MMT of various petroleum products were consumed, which increased to 214 MMT in 2019-20. While there has been a year-on-year increase in the consumption of petroleum products, the growth has slowed down in recent years.
Increase in the share of Crude Oil Imports over the last few years
As per the information provided by PPAC, as of the end of January’2021, India imported 162 MMT of Crude oil. This forms 89.39% of the total Crude oil processed during the same period in 2020-21 i.e., 182 MMT.
The volume of crude oil being imported has increased year on year since 1998-99.  For 1998-99, a total of 39.8 MMT of Crude oil was imported by India. During the first year of the UPA regime in 2004-05, India imported 95.8 MMT. By the last year of the regime i.e., during 2013-14, the crude oil imports grew to 189 MMT. This is a growth of 99% in terms of yearly volume during the 10-year period.
While the volume of imports stabilized during 2012-15, there has been a corresponding increase observed since 2015-16. We have already seen that over the years, there has been an increase in both the processing of crude oil as well as the demand for petroleum products. What is significant is that share of imports to meet this growing demand has also increased since domestic production is more or less stagnant. Hence it is not only the volume of crude oil being imported that has increased but its share corresponding to the requirement has also increased.
In 1998-99, imports formed around 58% of the total crude oil requirement of the country and this share witnessed a sharp increase over the ensuing years, peaking at 85.37% during 2009-10. After a fall in the ensuing year, the share of imports only recorded a marginal growth until 2014-15. During 2015-16, the share of imports increased to 87.1%, which by 2019-20 increased to 89.2%.  The data does point to an increased dependency on imports to meet the growing crude oil requirement. This increase is more evident from the higher increase in the share in the last recent 3 years compared to only a marginal increase in imports by volume.
No major change in the indigenous production over past two decades
Economic growth has a direct relationship with the consumption of fuel. The increase in the demand for crude oil and the consumption of petroleum products can be attributed to the strong & consistent economic growth of India over the last two decades. However, as the data indicates, the increase in the demand has also seen a corresponding increase in the share of crude imports.
This can be attributed to a small but steady fall in domestic production in recent years. In fact, there has been no major increase in the domestic production of crude oil over the past two decades. During 1998-99, 32.76 MMT of crude oil was produced indigenously. With minor fluctuations in production over the years, the highest production was recorded in 2011-12 with 38.08 MMT. Since then, there has been a decline in domestic production with a steeper decline observed since 2014-15.  In 2019-20, the domestic production was 32.17 MMT, which is the lowest in almost 20 years.
Need for result-oriented strategies that can reduce Crude oil-import dependency
Increasing demand for crude-oil & petroleum products is a strong indicator of higher economic activity, which in turn signifies economic growth. Hence, the slow rate of growth in the processing of petroleum as well as consumption of petroleum products can be attributed to the slowdown in economic activity over the past few years.
This could also point towards a reliance on other alternative sources for meeting the fuel demand. However, with the total consumption of petroleum products increasing steadily, the alternate fuel sources have not made much of an impact to meet the demand. As observed from the data, the reliance on crude-oil imports has increased in recent years, corroborated with the data which shows a fall in domestic production.
In the earlier quoted response in Lok Sabha, the Union Minister for Petroleum & Natural Gas highlights the various initiatives of the government to enhance the domestic production of oil & natural gas to reduce the reliance on imports.
However, the trend of decreasing domestic production highlights the gap between the initiatives of the government and reality. While there are efforts to explore and increase the domestic crude oil production, there are questions around the extent of India’s natural oil reserves and if they are sufficient to meet the growing demand of the country.
Hence, investing in alternative fuels alongside petroleum is a path the country is required to take up. The Government highlights these initiatives in the same response in Lok Sabha.
While the Prime Minister’s claim that earlier governments have not focused on reducing the crude oil import dependency is true, data also indicates that there has been no improvement even during the current regime with the share of imports actually increasing than earlier.

created: February 23, 2021


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Data: Share of Government Employees/Pensioners Among The Personal Income Taxpayers Doubles in Last 10 Years
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
May 19, 2023
Data shared by the government in Parliament and data from the CBDT indicates the number of personal income taxpayers has more than doubled in the last 10 years. The data also indicates that the share of government employees/pensioners among the personal income taxpayers category also doubled during the same period.
Taxes are essential resources whose mobilisation and maximization are crucial to governments in order to pay, among other things, for the development needs of the underprivileged and poorer segments of society as well as financing the crucial economic, and infrastructural needs. In addition to the social objective behind taxation, taxes also help in reducing income and wealth disparities. Different taxpayer groups with different sources of income are charged different tax rates.
In today’s story, we look at some of the trends in the income tax collection in India. It has to be noted that unless specified, all years correspond to fiscal years and not assessment years.
Direct taxes account for half of the total tax revenues.
Direct taxes are defined as the taxes whose liability cannot be transferred to any other person except on whom the tax is levied. Taxes such as income tax, corporate tax, capital gains tax, security transaction tax and wealth tax come under direct taxes in India. The data from the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) indicate that direct taxes account for more than half of the total tax revenues in India. The proportion of direct taxes out of the total taxes was highest during 2009-10 at 60%, thereafter which the share is wavering between 50 to 55%.
Personal taxpayers in 2020-21 still below the pre-pandemic level
A broad categorization of total direct taxpayers in India is the corporate taxpayers and non-corporate (personal) taxpayers. The number of taxpayers paying corporate tax has been rising steadily from 6.2 lakh in 2012-13 to 9.7 lakh in 2020-21. This rise is steady and consistent even during the COVID-19 pandemic time. On the other hand, the number of personal income taxpayers recorded the highest numbers in 2018-19, with 685.4 lakh taxpayers from a meager 282.21 lakh in 2012-13. However, the number fell to 661.9 lakh in 2019-20 and then rose to 684.4 lakh in 2020-21. This is still below the level reached before the pandemic.
Personal Income Taxpayers above 10 lakh slab under ‘individuals’ category grew by more than 250% during last seven years.
‘Equity’ remains one of the key fundamental principles governing tax policy. Equity applies in both vertical and horizontal directions. Horizontal equity refers to taxing equally abled citizens with equal taxes, while vertical equity means taxing citizens with higher abilities are taxed comparatively higher. To achieve these objectives, a slab system of taxation was implemented. These are not rigid and change depending on the budgetary announcements. A new tax regime for individual taxpayers was made applicable from Assessment Year (AY) 2021-22 and for corporate taxpayers from AY 2017-18.
As per the old tax regime, the income for individual personal income taxpayers is divided into three slabs – 0 to 5 lakhs, 5 to 10 lakhs, and above 10 lakhs. The data of individual taxpayers in each slab has grown considerably from 2014-15 to 2020-21. The ‘above 10 lakh’ tax slab registered the highest growth rate of 259%, followed by ‘5 to 10 lakh’ at 164%, and ‘0 to 5 lakhs’ at 27% during this period.
One-fifth of the personal taxpayers’ are government employees/pensioners.
Out of the total personal income taxpayers in India, the share of Government employees/pensioners has been rising steadily. The total number of government employees/pensioners under the personal taxpayers’ category was 28 lakh in 2012-13, which rose to 137.4 lakhs during 2018-19. The number as of 2020-21 stands at 128.2 lakh. The parliamentary answer does not mention if the number includes both central and state government employees or only central government employees. However, if one looks at the number of central government employees as per the pay and allowances report of the Department of Expenditure, this number could include government employees of both the central & state governments.
On the percentage share, it was 9.97% in 2012-13, reached a highest of 20.05% during 2018-19, and thereafter fell to 18.73% in 2020-21. Nevertheless, there is almost a double growth in the share of government employees paying taxes.
Cost of tax collection is the lowest since last two decades.
A sound policy advocates for a greater tax collection with minimum leakages and expenditure incurred on the collection of such taxes. Simplification of the tax regime is one of the ways in which leakages and expenditures on tax collections can be minimized. The percentage of the total expenditure incurred on tax collection to the total collections gives the cost of collection. Owing to the measures initiated by successive governments in simplifying tax regimes, the cost of collection has come down significantly. During 2000-01, the cost of collection stood at 1.36%, which declined gradually to 0.54% during 2007-08. It rose again and fluctuated between years, arriving at 0.53% in 2021-22, the lowest in the last two decades.
Further, a Government task force submitted a draft report on the income tax reforms in 2019 to the Finance Ministry to simplify the tax regime in India.
New tax regimes – A push to minimize revenue impact of tax incentives?
Any tax law and its administration’s main goal is to generate income in order to pay for government spending. The total tax base and the effective tax rates have a major impact on the amount of money raised. The key determinants of these two variables include a variety of policies, such as specific tax rates, exemptions, deductions, refunds, deferrals, and credits among others.
Since budget 2006-07, the government has been releasing statements on the revenue impact of these tax incentives. It is aimed at bringing transparency to the tax policy and tax expenditures. The estimates and projections are intended to indicate the potential revenue gain that would be realised by removing exemptions, deductions, weighted deductions, and similar measures.
The data from 2012-13 indicate that there is a steady increase in the revenue impact of tax incentives for all categories of taxpayers. For individuals and HUFs, and non-corporate taxpayers (firms, Association of Persons (AoPs), Body of Individuals (BoIs), the revenue impact of tax incentives grew by 405% and 80% respectively from 2012-13 to 2019-20. The new tax regime was introduced in 2020-21, which reduced the revenue impact of these two categories of taxpayers.
Similarly, the growth for the corporate sector between 2012-13 to 2018-19 is 87%, and thereafter which, there is a constant decline in the revenue impact. The budget document for 2023-24 notes the encouraging trend in the corporate sector towards the adoption of a new concessional tax regime by moving away from deductions and exemption regimes.
Featured Image: Trends in income tax collection

source: news-factly

license: Creative Commons - Attribution - https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

author: Sai Krishna Muthyanolla


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Data: Share of High-Value Currency Notes in Circulation Increases Slightly by 2022-23 end
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
June 12, 2023
As per the data provided in the RBI’s annual report, the share of high-value currency notes (Rs. 2000 and Rs. 500) in circulation was 87. 9% by the end of 2022-23 compared to 87.1% by the end of 2021-22. With the withdrawal of the Rs. 2000 denomination note, it remains to be seen if this reduces significantly by the end of 2023-24.
Currency is a critical piece of any economy, with its pivotal role as the accepted medium of exchange for the payment of goods and services. Over the centuries of societal evolution, the form of currency has changed. Currency in circulation, i.e., the physical form of currency, is among the most liquid of the asset classes and therefore forms an important part of the monetary system.
In the current times, an effort to move from the physical form of currency to a digital format is being made across countries. India is experiencing this transition at an increased pace post-demonetization in 2016, wherein a less cash-based economy was cited as one of its objectives.
However, data indicates that there has been an increasing trend of Currency in Circulation, albeit at a slower rate. Our story on the trends as of 2021-22 can be read here. The recent announcement by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on the withdrawal of the Rs. 2000 currency notes has once again brought to the fore the discussion around ‘Currency in Circulation’ (CIC) in the system. RBI has also recently released its Annual Report for 2022-23, which provides the latest data on various aspects related to currency.
In this story, we analyse the trends in various aspects relating to currency management in the country. Datasets relating to currency management available on Dataful are considered for the analysis. These datasets are sourced from the RBI reports.
Notes in circulation continue to increase in 2022-23, but the growth rate slowed down
Traditionally, ‘Currency in Circulation’ includes banknotes and coins in circulation. With the launch of the digital rupee (e₹) on a pilot basis during 2022-23, even this is included in the definition of Currency in Circulation.
Currency notes form the bulk of the total currency in terms of both volume and value. Coins are of lower denominations, with the highest being Rs. 20. Hence, the trends in currency notes in circulation affect the CIC not so much the coins. By the end of 2022-23, the total value of currency notes in circulation increased to Rs. 33.48 lakh crores. As was the trend last year, while the total value increased, the growth rate has slowed down.
In 2021-22, the growth rate fell to 9.87% compared to 16.7 % in the earlier year. During 2022-23, the growth rate further slowed down to 7.8 % in terms of the value of total currency notes in circulation.
In terms of volume, it increased to Rs. 13.62 thousand crores. Even in the case of the volume of currency notes in circulation, the growth rate slowed down but marginally. In 2021-22, it was 4.9% which fell to 4.37 % in 2022-23.
The value of coins in circulation increased to Rs. 30.2 thousand crores by the end of 2022-23 compared to Rs. 27.9 thousand crores by the end of 2021-22. The volume of the newly introduced e₹ was Rs. 10.69 crores for e₹ Wholesale (e₹-W) and Rs. 5.7 crores for e₹ Retail (e₹-R).
Reducing the ‘Currency to GDP ratio’ was one of the intended objectives of Demonetization.  In continuation with the trend of last year, the Currency to GDP ratio fell in 2022-23. In 2021-22 it was 13.4%, which fell to 12.7% in 2022-23. While the decline continues, it is still higher than the pre-demonetization year of 2015-16 when it was 12.1%.
Slight fall in ‘Notes in Circulation’ post the withdrawal of Rs. 2000 note
The value of currency notes in circulation continued to increase during the initial weeks of 2023-24. As per the data available in RBI’s ‘Weekly Statistical Supplement’, the value of notes in circulation as on 07 April 2023 is Rs. 33.87 lakh crores, higher than the value at the end of 2022-23.
This continued to increase every week. As on 12 May 2023, the total value of notes in circulation was Rs. 34.58 lakh crores. The announcement by RBI regarding the withdrawal of Rs. 2000 currency notes was made on 19 May 2023. The value of notes in circulation fell to Rs. 34.48 lakh crores as on 19 May 2023. It fell further to Rs. 34.12 lakh crores as on 26 May 2023. As per the latest weekly supplement released by RBI, the value of notes in circulation fell further to Rs. 33.84 lakh crores.
Rs. 500 currency notes account for 77% of the value of total currency notes in circulation
Rs. 2000 and the new Rs. 500 currency notes are the two high-value currency notes issued after demonetization.  In our previous story, we highlighted a decline in the volume & value of Rs. 2000 currency notes. This trend continued in 2022-23 as well. The value of Rs. 2000 currency notes in circulation was Rs. 3.62 lakh crores by the end of 2022-23, compared to Rs. 4.28 cores by the end of 2021-22.
Regarding the withdrawal of Rs. 2000 banknotes, RBI stated that these notes were introduced in 2016 to meet the immediate currency requirements after the demonetization exercise. With an adequate supply of other denominations available, the printing of Rs.2000 notes was stopped in 2018-19 and now is being withdrawn.
The increase in the volume and value of Rs. 500 currency notes over the years substantiate RBI’s claim of the availability of other currency notes. By the end of 2022-23, the total value of Rs. 500 currency notes was Rs. 25.8 lakh crores. This is more than 77% of the total currency notes in circulation, compared to around 73% by the end of 2021-22. The share of high-value notes in circulation (Rs. 2000 and Rs. 500) increased slightly by the end of 2022-23 to 87.9% compared to 87.1% by the end of 2021-22. With the withdrawal of the Rs. 2000 note, the share of these notes might reduce by the end of 2023-24.
There is a slight increase in the value of Rs. 200 currency notes by the end of 2022-23.  In terms of volume, the share of Rs .500 currency notes increased from 35% by the end of 2021-22 to 38% by the end of 2022-23.
Increased in the number of Rs. 500 Counterfeit Notes detected in the system
Curbing fake currency in the system was one of the stated goals of demonetization. The high-value currency notes of Rs. 500 & Rs. 1000 notes were demonetised as there were multiple instances of widespread circulation of fake currency notes involving these denominations.
In the initial few years following demonetisation, there was a decline in the number of counterfeit notes detected in the system. However, in 2021-22, there is an increase in the total number of counterfeit notes with 2.31 lakh currency notes. In 2022-23, this number was 2.25 lakhs.
Rs.500 currency notes form the major share of these counterfeit notes. In 2022-23, 91.1 thousand counterfeit notes of Rs. 500 were detected. This is around 40% of the total notes detected. Not only does this denomination form the major portion of the total counterfeit notes, but there is also an increasing trend. After a decline post-demonetisation, the number of Rs. 500 denomination counterfeit notes have increased year-on-year since 2019-20.
Unlike 2021-22, where there was an increase in the number of Rs. 2000 counterfeit notes detected in the system; the number fell in 2022-23 to 9.8 thousand counterfeit notes compared to Rs.13.6 thousand in 2021-22.
With a slight increase in 2022-23, the increasing trend of counterfeit notes of Rs. 200 continued. Rs. 200 currency notes are the other new currency note issued after demonetisation. Comparatively, there is a steep decline in the number of Rs.100 counterfeit notes that are being detected.
RBI allows for the exchange of soiled bank notes. All the banks are authorised to accept soiled banknotes in exchange for full value. As per RBI’s Annual report, there is an increase in the number of such soiled notes disposed in the last two years i.e., 2021-22 & 2022-23. In 2020-21, the number of such currency notes fell to 99.7 thousand compared to 1.46 lakhs in 2019-20. During 2022-23, the number of soiled banknotes disposed in the case of Rs. 500 denomination more than doubled.
Fall in Indent & Supply of Rs. 500 notes during 2022-23, with a marginal overall increase
Ensuring the supply of currency notes in the market is critical for the proper functioning of the economy. Accordingly, RBI estimates the demand for currency and ensures the supply of the same.
As per RBI’s annual report for 2022-23, there is a slight increase in the indent and supply of currency notes in 2022-23. This is despite a fall in the indent & supply of Rs. 500 currency notes. In 2021-22, the indent for Rs.500 notes was 1.28 lakhs, which fell to 1 lakh in 2022-23. Unlike in 2020-21, the supply was more than the indent only by a few notes in the last two years.
Despite a fall in indent & supply of Rs. 500 notes, the overall increase was due to the increase in the indent for other currency notes i.e., Rs. 50, 100 & Rs. 200 notes.
A detailed data set of indent & supply of Bank notes & coins can be found here on Dataful.
The total expenditure incurred on security printing during 2022-23 was Rs. 4.68 thousand crores. This a slightly lower than Rs. 4.98 thousand crores incurred on printing in 2021-22. During 2020-21, RBI switched to the financial year ending March, from its regular July-June accounting cycle. Hence, the value reported in 2020-21 was only for a 9-month period.
In 2019-20, which is for a 12-month period, the cost of printing was Rs.4.37 thousand crores. While RBI stopped printing Rs. 2000 notes in 2018-19, the cost involved in printing new Rs. 2000 notes was one of the aspects discussed during the withdrawal of the Rs.2000 currency note.


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Share of High-Value currency notes back to Pre-demonetization levels
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
June 3, 2021
Making the economy a less-cash one and reducing the share of ‘high-value currency notes in the system were few of the goals of demonetization. While the currency in circulation has doubled in the last five years, the share of ‘high-value currency notes in the system by value is back to pre-demonetization levels of more than 85%.
Recently, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) released the annual report for the year 2020-21. The report is a statutory report of its Central Board of Directors, covering the working and functions of the RBI for the transition period of nine months (July 2020 – March 2021) following the decision in 2020 to change its accounting year from July-June to April-March to align its financial year with that of the government. One key area that the report addresses is the details of currency in circulation (CiC), that is, banknotes and coins and the related numbers like volume & value of notes in circulation, indent, supply, cost of printing, detection of fake notes, etc.
The RBI, in its report, stated that the thrust of currency management during the year was to make available an adequate quantity of clean notes in circulation in light of the COVID-19 pandemic. In this story, we focus on the decadal trend in the volume and value of different denominations of banknotes that are in circulation. It has to be noted that the year referred to in this story is the financial year (April to March).
Volume of notes in circulation has increased by 7.2% while value has increased by 16.8% in 2020-21
Presently, the RBI issues notes in denominations of Rs. 2, Rs. 5, Rs. 10, Rs. 20, Rs. 50, Rs. 100, Rs. 200, Rs. 500 and Rs. 2,000. The volume of currency notes in circulation refers to the number of notes that are in circulation. Overall, the number of banknotes in circulation, including all denominations, has increased from 69,384 million notes in March 2012 (end of 2011-12) to 1,24,367 million notes in March 2021 (end of 2020-21), recording an increase of almost 80% in 10 years. An increase of 11% in the volume of notes was observed in 2016-17, the only year to record double-digit growth. This was in the backdrop of the demonetization of Rs. 500 and Rs. 1000 currency notes in November 2016 as a measure to reclaim black money & make the economy a less-cash one. The volume of notes in circulation by March 2021 increased by 7.2% compared to March 2020.
Meanwhile, the total value of notes in circulation (total amount) was about Rs 10.3 Lakh crores by the end of 2011-12 which increased to Rs 28.27 lakh crores by the end of 2020-21, an increase of 168.5%. In 2016-17, the value of the currency in circulation dropped by 20% as compared to 2015-16 because of demonetization. By the end of 2020-21, the value of currency notes in circulation has gone up by 16.8% compared to the end of 2019-20.
According to RBI, the year 2020-21 witnessed a higher-than-average increase in banknotes in circulation primarily due to precautionary holding of cash by the public induced by the COVID-19 pandemic and its prolonged continuance.
No indent was placed for printing of Rs. 2000 notes in 2019-20 and 2020-21
In terms of the denomination-wise volume of currency in circulation, it is observed that-
As of March 2021, one in three notes in circulation was of Rs. 500 denomination
Analysis of the share of each denomination of currency note in terms of volume of notes in circulation indicates that,
Value of Rs. 500 denomination was the highest among all denominations in the last decade
Analysis of the value of each denomination in circulation for the last ten years indicates that,
Share of ‘High-Value’ currency in the system back to more than 85%
Share of value of each denomination in the total value of currency notes in circulation in the last ten years reveals that,
Cost of printing notes has reduced over the years
The cost of printing the currency notes increased from Rs. 2,736 crores in 2011-12 to Rs. 3,421 crores in 2015-16, prior to demonetization. Following the introduction of new currency notes and new denominations in 2016-17, the cost went up to Rs. 7,965 crores. However, since then, the cost has dropped to Rs 4,378 crores in 2019-20, and to Rs 4,012 crores in 9 months of 2020-21. In 2020, because of the nationwide lockdown, RBI had temporarily halted the printing of currency notes and resumed it in a phased manner.
Share of ‘High-Value’ notes back to pre-demonetization levels
A check on the growth of high-value currency was one of the goals of demonetization. The PMO acknowledged this in 2017, a year after demonetization. However, the cheer seems to have been short-lived as the share of high-value notes in the system is back to pre-demonetization levels of more than 85%. The currency in circulation has also more than doubled in the last five years despite an increase in digital transactions. The cash to GDP ratio is also back to if not more than the pre-demonetization levels.  While the COVID-19 pandemic may have contributed to an increase in currency in the system, the increasing trend was visible much before the pandemic struck.
Featured Image: Share of ‘High-Value’ currency notes


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Data: Share of India born applicants increases to more than 70% among H-1B approved
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
April 25, 2022
H-1B visa of the US is the most sought-after work visa around the world. Though the official annual cap of new H-1B approved applications is 65,000 only, the actual number of approved H-1B petitions is multiple times this number because of the exemptions. The share of India-born applicants increased to more than 70% among H-1B approved in both 2020 & 2021.
An H-1B temporary worker is generally a noncitizen admitted to the United States of America (US) to perform services in a “specialty occupation.” The US legislation defines a specialty occupation as an occupation that requires theoretical and practical application of a body of highly specialized knowledge, and attainment of a bachelor’s or higher degree in the specific specialty (or its equivalent) as a minimum for entry into the occupation in the United States. In simple terms, an H-1B visa is a non-immigrant visa that lets companies and offices in the US employ foreign workers who require specialized knowledge or at least a bachelor’s degree or work experience.
Every year, tens of thousands of highly skilled workers are hired, predominantly, from India and China, by companies in the US. The employers file an H-1B petition for a noncitizen to perform services following certain procedures laid down by the prevailing rules. The United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) publishes an annual report, ‘Characteristics of H-1B Specialty Occupation Workers’, which provides numbers pertaining to H-1B immigration visas concerning the countries of origin, occupations, educational levels, and compensation, of noncitizens who were issued visas or otherwise provided nonimmigrant status under H-1B visa during the previous fiscal year. The fiscal year in the US is from October to September, i.e., FY 2021 is the period from 01 October 2020 to 30 September 2021.
A yearly cap of H-1B visas is 65,000 but the actual number is much more
The H-1B visa is issued for an initial period of 3 years which can be extended to 6 years, though there are exemptions for certain categories. Petitions are filed by employers with the US Department of Homeland Security. It is filed by an employer for either sponsoring the employee for an initial period of H-1B employment or for extending the authorized stay of a noncitizen residing in the US with an immigrant visa. If an immigrant changes jobs, an employer may file the petition yet again for them though they already hold the H-1B visa. Hence, the number of approved petitions in a fiscal year can be greater than the number of noncitizens who are provided the visa. The immigrants should either change their visas or leave the country once the permitted period ends.
The H-1B visa was first introduced in 1990 when the Immigration Act, 1990 was passed. Only a maximum of 65,000 foreign individuals could be issued an H1-B visa in each fiscal year. Extension of the existing H1-B visa, request filed following a change in employer, and other instances where a noncitizen has already been counted earlier are not included in the 65,000 ceiling. Additionally, visa petitions for public or non-profit institutions, higher education, or research work in such institutions are not included in the limit.
The yearly limit in the number of H-1B visas to be issued was increased to 1.15 lakh in 1999 and 2000, and further increased to 1.95 lakhs in the following years- 2001 to 2003. However, in 2004, the ceiling was brought down to 65,000 and has been the same since then.
Furthermore, a reform was brought in 2004 to not include 20,000 H-1B petitions filed for noncitizens who earned a master’s or higher degree from the US, in the annual ceiling. In other words, 20,000 H-1B petitions can be filed on behalf of noncitizens who have earned a master’s or higher degree from a US institution of higher education which would not be counted in the 65,000 cap.
Other exemptions based on international trade agreements and work with the Department of Defence are also extended. All this means that the number of approved H-1B petitions in any given year is far more than the cap of 65,000.
The number of petitions for H-1B has been increasing
A total of 62.02 lakh petitions for H-1B visas were filed between 2003 and 2021 and 56.83 lakh visas were approved, about 91%. Since 2003, the number of H-1B visa petitions filed and the number approved have witnessed a generally increasing trend, though the annual numbers show no consistent trend. The number of petitions has almost doubled in the 19 years for which data has been compiled from the annual reports published by USCIS. The number of petitions filed was 2.31 lakhs in 2003 which touched an all-time high of 4.27 lakhs in 2020. In 2021, the number dropped to 3.98 lakhs, the lowest since 2016. On the other hand, the number of petitions approved for H-1B visas also almost doubled in the 19 years- from 2.17 lakh in 2003 to 4.07 lakh in 2021. The number of petitions approved exceeded the number of petitions in 2005, 2011, and 2021.
The number of petitions approved was exceptionally lower than petitions filed in 2010 and 2018. In 2010, the US government issued a memorandum on what constitutes a valid employer-employee relationship to qualify for the H-1B ‘specialty occupation’ classification. Similarly, in 2018 the government issued another memorandum on contract and itinerary requirements to be read with the 2010 memorandum to strengthen protections preventing abuse of the visa.
India is the country of origin for 74% of the persons whose H-1B petition is approved
Throughout the 19-year period (2003 to 2021), India is the country of birth for most persons whose H-1B petitions were approved, followed by China & Canada. Of the total number of petitions approved, India’s share was 36.4% in 2003 which increased to around 74% in 2020 and 2021. In 2016, the share of persons born in India was 80%, the highest during this period. Except in 2003, the number of petitions approved for persons whose country of birth is India has been more than a lakh every year.
On the other hand, the share of persons whose country of birth is China and whose H-1B visa petition is approved was above 9% between 2003 and 2005, which dropped to 7.6% in 2012 and increased to 12% in 2020 and 2021. During this period, the share of persons born in Canada with approved visa petitions dropped from 5% in 2003 to less than 1% in 2020 and 2021.
Except in the case of India and China, the number of petitions approved for persons whose place of birth is countries such as Mexico, Pakistan, Taiwan, Bangladesh, Philippines, the UK, South Korea, and Canada has been on a decline. This is because of the decline in the number of H-1B petitions filed on behalf of persons born in these countries. These countries are part of the top-10 in terms of H-1B petitions approved during this period.
Data on the number of petitions filed in terms of country of birth is available for the period between 2007 and 2019. During this period, the number of petitions filed by persons who were born in India has increased by 88% from 1.66 lakh in 2007 to 3.14 lakh in 2019 whereas the number of petitions approved increased by 47% from 1.47 lakh in 2007 to 2.78 lakh in 2019. Similarly, China also saw an increase in petitions filed by 47% and approvals by 51%. Other countries have witnessed a significant decline in petitions filed which is also reflected in the number of approved petitions. For instance, South Korea saw a decline in petitions filed from 10,730 in 2007 to 3,928 in 2019 and the Philippines witnessed a decline in petitions filed from 12,230 in 2007 to 2,736 in 2019 in the said period.
More than 1 lakh petitions filed annually for initial employment
The total number of petitions filed every year includes both “initial employment” and “continuing employment”. Initial employment refers to the petitions filed for new H-1B employment with an employer. Petitions filed for concurrent employment filed for H-1B workers who are planning to work simultaneously for an additional H-1B employer are also counted under initial employment. “Continuing employment” petitions are those petitions filed seeking extensions, amendments, and sequential employment, for those noncitizens who are already residing in the country.
A total of 24.03 lakh petitions were filed for initial employment between 2003 and 2021. In each of these years, more than 1 lakh petitions were filed were initial employment except in 2010. During the same period, 21.66 lakh petitions were approved for initial employment. In 2018, only two-thirds of the petitions filed for initial employment have been approved whereas in 2007 and 2021, it is more than 100%. A total of 37.99 lakh petitions for continuing employment were filed between 2003 & 2021 of which 35.17 lakh were approved. The number of petitions filed for continuing employment has been consistently increasing from 1.2 lakh in 2003 to 3 lakh in 2020 and 2.85 lakh in 2021 while the number approved went up from 1.12 lakh in 2003 to 2.83 lakh in 2021.
In the case of petitions filed for initial employment, the share of petitions filed on behalf of persons born in India was 28% in 2003 which crossed 60% in 2021. For continuing employment category, this has been around 80% since 2016, up from 45.5% in 2003.
The share of Women applicants has also increased
The data by gender of persons whose H-1B petitions are approved is available for 2020 and 2021. The share of females whose H-1B petitions were approved was 26% in 2020 which has increased to 28% in 2021. The share of females from India has also increased from 21% to 23% in these two years. The share of females from China has been the highest across the top ten countries. The share of females from China whose petitions are approved has increased from 45% in 2020 to 46% in 2021.
More than two-thirds of the H-1B petitions approved in terms of occupation were for computer-related jobs in 2020 and 2021, while Architecture, Engineering, and Surveying accounted for little above 9% in both years.
Featured Image: Share of Indian applicants in H-1B approved applications


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Data: Share of Retail Sector Loans Now More Than Those to Industry Out of Overall Credit by SCBs
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
July 7, 2023
Data on credit by Scheduled Commercial Banks (SCBs) to various sectors indicates that the share of retail sector loans is now more than the share of loans to industry. This has seen a significant shift in the last 10-odd years.
In recent years, particularly after the COVID-19 pandemic, retail bank credit significantly contributed to the recovery of aggregate bank credit growth. The contribution of retail loans to overall credit growth began to rise and has become the largest of all industries. The overall growth in non-food credit was driven by the expansion of credit to non-industrial sectors, particularly lending to the housing and credit card segments.
The recent data on the banks’ retail lending portfolios indicate that the banks are paying closer attention to the retail credit market. In light of this, we look at the trends in overall credit growth, retail lending, and its contribution to the recovery of credit growth.
Note: The non-food credit data is divided into categories including agricultural and related activities, industries, services, and personal loans, according to the sector-wise and industry-wise bank credit (SIBC) compiled by the RBI. Retail credit mentioned in the article refers to the personal loan category.
Consistent growth in the overall credit in the last decade
There had been many hindrances in the last decade that impacted the growth of credit: non-performing assets (NPA), demonetization, Goods and Services Tax (GST), COVID-19 pandemic being major among them. Yet, the credit growth ecosystem has grown at an impressive pace, primarily owing to the technological adoption by lenders and the expanding aspirations of the Indian middle class.
The overall amount outstanding has seen consistent growth in the last decade. It grew at a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 33% from Rs. 33.45 lakh crores in 2010 to Rs. 142 lakh crores in 2023. The number of accounts also rose from 11.9 crore to 36 crore during the same period, at a CAGR of 23%. The average ticket size of the amount outstanding increased from Rs. 2.81 lakhs to Rs. 3.94 lakhs during this period.
Retail sector credit leads the growth in overall credit.
To understand the dynamics behind the growth of overall credit, occupation-wise credit growth is analysed. It is observed that there is a gradual expansion of credit to the ‘retail-sector’ replacing the traditionally credit-seeking industrial sector. A ‘retail-shift’ in the credit disbursal can be seen during the last decade. The increase in non-food credit was primarily driven in the latter half of the previous decade by the development of credit to non-industrial sectors, particularly lending to the housing and credit card segments.
The share of credit to the industrial sector out of the total credit declined from 40.5% in 2010 to 25% in 2020, whereas the share of credit to the retail sector (personal loan category) grew from 16.7% to 28.2% during the same period.  Some of the most cited reasons behind such a shift from the industrial to the non-industrial sector are the rise in economic prosperity and purchasing power, coupled with technological advancements related to the rising usage of credit/debit cards, ATMs, and direct debits among others. Further, the banks might have exercised caution in credit to the industrial sector, particularly after the prolonged cycle of non-performing assets during the first half of the decade.
Housing segment dominates the retail sector, followed by vehicle loans.
The contribution of key sectors within the retail sector indicates that the housing segment contributes to nearly half of the total credit in the retail sector. However, its share out of the total has been declining marginally since 2015. The housing segment was contributing to around 54.8% of the total retail credit in 2010, which rose to a decadal high of 55.93% in 2015. It started declining thereafter, finally settling at 49.28% in 2023. This is the first time in the last decade that its share has gone below 50%.
The housing segment is followed by vehicle loans with a contribution of around ten percent. The average share of vehicle loans from 2010 to 2016 stood at 9.5%, while from 2016 to 2023, the average share rose to 11.1%. A similar trend can be seen in personal credit cards, whose average share during the same corresponding period grew from 3.23% to 4.62%. The changing aspirations of the younger cohort with the increased access to new financial products, coupled with affordability could be one of the possible reasons behind such growth.
On the other hand, the share of credit for education out of the total credit is declining. This could be due to a shift in the approach of banks as they slowly withdraw lending to poorer students who might have trouble finding employment. While banks may be compelled to provide educational loans under the priority sector lending, the pace of lending is not the same. Some studies also point out to the high level of defaults in educational loans than other key segments in the retail sector as a possible reason for a declining share of educational loans out of total credit.
Credit concentration in retail sector- A source of systematic risk in future?
The banking industry has undergone significant change as a result of the technological revolution. Banks have redesigned their business structures to target the younger segment of the population by remodelling the existing products and creating new and uniquely designed financial products. As a result, there is an uptick in the credit to the retail sector. However, the retail sector is not a risk-free sector. Higher retail loans often result in loan stacking and deferred payments. Understanding whether the uptick in credit growth is structural or cyclical is crucial in evaluating appropriate measures to ensure the healthy asset quality and maintenance of the risk-reward ratio.
As per an article in the RBI Bulletin, June 2023, the ongoing ‘retail-shift’ is not permanent, but rather cyclical in nature and the credit growth may not continue to be high. Yet, with high uncertainties in global socio-economic and political scenarios, banks must be vigilant and assess the trends in retail credit growth on a constant basis to mitigate the risks of higher retail loans.
Featured Image: RBI Bulletin, June 2023


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Data: Share of Undertrials in Indian prisons crossed 75% by the end of 2020
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
January 11, 2022
Data from the NCRB ‘Prison Statistics India-2020’ indicates that the number of undertrials in Indian prisons crossed 75% by the end of 2020. While this increase is driven in part by an increased number of arrests in 2020, the reduced disposal in courts is another major reason.
The National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) recently released the “Prison Statistics India (PSI) – 2020” Report. Based on this data, we had highlighted in the earlier story that more than 3/4 of the inmate population are those undertrials.
The share of inmates under trial went up by over more than 10% in 10 years. In 2011, the share of undertrials was 65% which increased to 76% by the end of 2020. In this story, we analyse the trends in under-trial inmates over the years.
Substantial increase in the proportion of Undertrial inmates during 2020
As already pointed out, the proportion of undertrial inmates out of the total inmates in 2011 was around 65%. Except for 2014 & 2015, there has been an increase in the proportion of undertrial inmates year-on-year. However, the increase has been slower prior to 2020.
During the period from 2011 to 2019, the total number of inmates in Indian prisons increased from 3.73 lakhs to 4.81 lakhs i.e., an increase of around 29%. During the same period, the number of inmates under trial increased from 2.41 lakhs to 3.72 lakhs i.e., an increase of 38%. The steeper increase in the number of inmates under trial compared to total inmates is reflected in the increase of the share of undertrials.
As highlighted in the earlier story, there were efforts to release the inmates languishing in prisons to ease the overcrowding in lieu of COVID-19 as per court directions. However, the increase in the arrests also meant the number of inmates increased by the end of 2020. The number of inmates increased from 4.81 lakhs in 2019 to 4.89 lakhs in 2020 on account of a greater number of arrests in 2020. The increase in the number of inmates under trial was much higher, from 3.33 lakhs by the end of 2019 to 3.72 lakhs by the end of 2020, taking the share of undertrial inmates from 69% at the beginning of 2020 to 76% by the end of the year.
In 2020, an increase in arrests contributed to an increase in the undertrial population
Various factors influence the increase in the numbers of those undertrials. The slow trial process in the courts is one of the reasons. As per the data provided in NCRB’s Crime in India report, we have earlier highlighted that there is an increase in cases pending trial in the courts, meaning that many of those arrested for crimes in 2020 would be in prisons as undertrials if they are not released on bail. Adding to the delay in the courts is the increase in the number of arrests made in 2020.
In 2020, there has been a significant increase in the number of arrests made. There was a total of 68.15 lakh arrests in 2020 (under both IPC & SLL crimes) compared to 52.13 lakhs in 2019 i.e., an increase of around 31%. We had noted earlier that there was an increase of 38% in the number of inmates under trial by the end of 2020.
However, the increase in undertrials over the years cannot be solely attributed to the arrests. Data as per NCRB’s CII report shows that there has been a year-on-year fall in the arrests made prior to 2020. In 2016, 61.3 lakh arrests were made, which reduced continuously and reached 52.13 lakh in 2019.
As already highlighted, there is a continuous increase in the number of persons under trial in prisons. This means while the significant increase in arrests was a contributory factor in 2020, the issue of undertrials is more due to systemic issues in trial and disposal of cases, rather than a direct correlation with the number of arrests.
A review of the crimes reported in 2020 shows that the increase in the incidence of crimes is largely due to the cases booked in enforcing the COVID-19 related lockdown measures and also to an extent increase under “Other SLL crimes”.
Increase in the share of undertrials in detention for more than a year
Many of those under trial in prisons are those in detention for less than 3 months. In 2020, out of the 3.71 lakh prisoners under trial, around 1.3 lakhs i.e., 35% were under detention for less than 3 months. As the duration of detention increases, the number of inmates under trial is lesser. By the end of 2020, around 1.07 lakhs i.e., around 28% are in detention for more than a year. Of these around 7.1 thousand i.e., around 1.9% of those under-trials was in detention for more than 5 years.
Even in the earlier years, the trends in the proportion of those in detention based on duration remain the same with a higher number of under-trial prisoners being in detention for less than 3 months. However, this changed slightly in 2020.  By the end of 2020, the share of those undertrials in detention for less than 3 months fell from around 37% to 35.5%. This share is taken over by more long-duration prisoners. While 1.9% of undertrials were in detention for more than 5 years by the end of 2020, this was only 1.5 % by the end of 2019.  More than 2 thousand inmates under trial were added on to the ones in detention for more than 5 years in the year 2020.
Around 85% of the inmates in Bihar and 90% in Delhi are those Under the trial
In the earlier story, we highlighted that UP has the highest prison occupancy rate with 177% by the end of 2020. It is also the state with the highest number of inmates who are under trial, with 80.5 thousand, which is about 75% of the total prison inmates in the U.P by the end of 2020.
The percentage is better than the national average of 76%.
The higher national average is driven by a few other states. In Bihar, 44.18 thousand out of the total 51.9 thousand inmates are under-trial i.e., around 85%. The prison occupancy rate of Bihar is 113% i.e., more than the capacity in the state.  Similarly, Maharashtra which has a prison occupancy rate of 128.7%, has around 82% of its inmates under trial.
Punjab & Odisha which have a lower prison occupancy rate, have a higher number of its inmates under trial. Madhya Pradesh, a state with a high prison occupancy rate of 158.6% has a lower share of its inmates as under trials with 68.5%. Delhi, which has the highest prison occupancy rate, next only to UP at 159.5% has a very high proportion of its inmates under trial with 90%. This is the highest among all large states.
Quick disposal is the only solution
It is apparent that the number of inmates who are under trial not only constitutes the major share of the prison inmates in the country but is also increasing every year. This increase is not just driven by new arrests but largely because of being under trial and in detention for a longer duration. As highlighted earlier, even this number is increasing. The only solution is quicker disposal followed by providing automatic bail to eligible inmates as per Section 436A of the IPC.
Featured Image: Undertrials in Indian prisons

created: January 11, 2022


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Data: Share of Vehicles Older Than 15 Years Range From More Than 40% in Delhi to Less Than 3% in Bihar
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
April 21, 2023
Data shared recently in Rajya Sabha indicates that more than 6 crore vehicles in the country are more than 15 years old, about 18% of all the vehicles registered in the country. The share of vehicles older than 15 years varies widely across states with more than 40% in Delhi to just 2.37% in Bihar.
The Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRTH) formulated the ‘Voluntary Vehicle Fleet Modernization Program (VVMP)’, or the ‘Vehicle Scrapping Policy’ based on incentives and disincentives, for creating an ecosystem to phase out older, unfit polluting vehicles. The intention is to cut down on the pollution caused by old and defective vehicles, bring down vehicular air pollution and work towards achieving India’s climate commitments, improve road and vehicular safety, and improve fuel efficiency. The policy also aims at making the Indian scrappage industry organized, transparent and environmentally friendly. State and UTs have also notified their own guidelines for implementation of the policy and started the implementation of the same.
As per the policy, the registration of vehicles is linked to the validity of the fitness certificate. Both private and commercial vehicles must possess valid fitness certificates for renewal of their registration. In the case of commercial vehicles, fitness tests are conducted every 2 years for the first 8 years and annually thereafter. For private vehicles, the first registration is valid for 15 years following which a valid fitness certificate is necessary for renewal of registration. The renewal takes place every 5 years. It was also proposed that the fitness tests be conducted through Automated Testing Stations. If a vehicle fails an automated fitness test, one re-test after the necessary repair/rectification, and re-inspection if ordered by the Appellate Authority, it will be declared an ‘End of Life Vehicle’. The scrapping policy is not applicable to vintage cars and to the special purpose vehicles (armoured and other specialised vehicles) used for operational purposes for defense of the country and for the maintenance of law and order and internal security.
Incentive and disincentive mechanisms have been included to push End-of-life vehicle owners to scrap older vehicles
The fees for conducting fitness tests and granting fitness certificates have been increased for both private and commercial vehicles older than 15 years. While the fee for renewal of registration for private vehicles after 15 years has been increased from Rs. 600 to Rs. 5000, the same in the case of commercial vehicles has been increased from Rs. 200 to Rs.7,500 to Rs.12,500 depending on vehicle type. The fees for conducting the tests have also been increased. In the case of government-owned vehicles including PSUs, State Transport Undertakings, and autonomous bodies, all vehicles may be de-registered and scrapped after 15 years from the date of original registration, irrespective of fitness.
On the other hand, to encourage people to scrap old vehicles, incentives are being provided for purchasing new vehicles. Scrapping centers will provide a ‘Scrap Value’ for the old vehicle of approximately 4-6% of the ex-showroom price of a new vehicle. Further, draft rules have been notified for state governments to offer a concession on motor vehicle tax of up to 25% for non-transport vehicles and up to 15% for transport vehicles. Additionally, registration fees are to be waived for the purchase of a new vehicle against the certificate of deposit issued and auto OEMs have been advised to provide a 5% discount on the purchase of a new vehicle against the certificate of deposit, as per the draft notification.
1.2 crore vehicles are estimated to be scrapped
Approximately, 1.2 crore vehicles without valid fitness and registration will be scrapped including 75 lakh light vehicles and 45 lakh heavy commercial vehicles. It is estimated that the scrapping of the current End-of-life vehicles (ELVs) burden of the country will lead to a 15-20% reduction in emissions due to vehicular pollution. According to MoRTH, the emission from one pre-BS old truck or bus is equivalent to that of 14 new BS-VI trucks or buses. Similarly, one old pre-BS car’s emission is equivalent to that of 11 new BS-VI cars.
Over 6.1 crore vehicles equivalent or older than 15 years registered across the country
In response to a question on scrapping vehicles in the Rajya Sabha, the state-wise number of registered vehicles greater than or equal to 15 years as on 31 March 2023 was provided. It should be noted that the data for Telangana and Lakshadweep is not available in the ‘Online Vahan Database’ and have not been included. As per the data, there are more than 6.1 crore vehicles equivalent and older than 15 years, registered across the country. Of this, 77.3% (4.72 crores) are petrol-only vehicles, 18.57% (1.13 crore) are diesel-only vehicles, and 0.14% (85,255) are CNG-only vehicles. The fuel type data of the remaining 4% of them have not been recorded in the system. It should be remembered that not all these vehicles may require scrapping since it is based on the fitness of the vehicles.
More than half the old vehicles were registered in 5 states
Most of these vehicles (greater than or equal to 15 years) were registered in Karnataka (14.3%) followed by Uttar Pradesh (12.3%). Delhi and Tamil Nadu accounted for more than 9% each, followed by Kerala with 7.2%. These 5 states together contributed to 52.3%. Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Punjab accounted for more than 5% each while West Bengal contributed 4.6%. On the other hand, except Assam, the remaining 6 northeastern states together had 5.4 lakh vehicles accounting for less than 1%. It is noteworthy that among large states, Bihar accounted for only 0.4% and Assam accounted for 0.6% of such vehicles that are greater than or equal to 15 years.
Share of old vehicles ranged from 2% in Bihar to 41% in Delhi
As on 19 April 2023, over 34.15 crore vehicles were registered in the country as per the Vahan database. Compared with the total number of registered vehicles in the country, old vehicles (greater than or equal to 15 years) made up about 17.9% of the total vehicles registered in the country. In major states/UTs, the share of old vehicles against the total vehicles registered varied from 2% to 40%.
In Delhi, the share of old vehicles was about 41%, the highest in the country. The national capital has always been under the scanner for high pollution. In December 2014, the National Green Tribunal (NGT) announced the ban of vehicles older than 15 years on the roads of Delhi, to reduce the air pollution loads in the city which was later challenged by the MoRTH citing fitness and road worthiness as criteria towards a permanent solution than the age limit.
In major states such as Karnataka, Kerala, Punjab, and Andhra Pradesh, one in every five vehicles is an old vehicle (greater than or equal to 15 years). On the other hand, it was less than 10% in Maharashtra (9.4%), Assam (7%), and Bihar (2.4%). It is also observed that the total number of vehicles registered in Bihar as of 19 April 2023 was more than that in Odisha, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand which indicates that more vehicles are being registered in the state in recent years.
While scrapping of old vehicles and modernization of fleet is being prioritized by the government with the objective of reducing emissions and pollution levels in the country, it must be ensured that the resultant waste is disposed of with utmost care. The finance minister announced that adequate funds have been allocated in the 2023-24 budget to scrap old vehicles of the Central Government and that States will also be supported in replacing old vehicles and ambulances.


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Data: Share of Women employees in the select nine sectors increases as per the latest Quarterly Employment Survey
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
January 21, 2022
The second-quarter report of the Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) for the period July to September 2021 was recently released. The report states that the total employment in these nine sectors increased by around 2 lakhs compared to the first quarter. The share of women employees increased to 32.1%.
Recently, the Ministry of Labour & Employment released the report of the second quarter of Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) for the period July to September 2021. This report is part of the ‘All-India Quarterly Establishment-based Employment Survey (AQEES)’. This is the second in the series, the first publication of which, covering the first quarter of 2021-22, was published in September 2021. The AQEES, conducted by the Labour Bureau, has been taken up to provide quarterly updates about employment vacancies, training, and other related parameters for selected nine (9) sectors of the non-farm economy over successive quarters. These nine (9) sectors, viz; Manufacturing, Construction, Trade, Transport, Education, Health, Accommodation & Restaurants, Information Technology (IT) & Business Process Outsourcing (BPO), and Financial Services, account for a substantial share of the total employment in the non-farm establishments in the country.
9 sectors accounting for 85% of total employment in units with 10 or more workers have been chosen
The selected nine sectors account for around 85% of the total employment in units with 10 or more workers as per the 6 Economic Census. For this survey, around 12,000 units were targeted to be covered among those establishments employing 10 or more workers in the organised sector from these 9 sectors. These were selected as given in the Directory of Establishments in the Sixth Economic Census.
Information has been collected from 11,503 units across the nine selected sectors all over the country in the second round of QES, as compared to 10,867 units covered in the first round. The sector-wise number of units covered in each quarter is in the following table. Among the sectors covered, the highest number of sample establishments were from the manufacturing sector, followed by Trade, Education, and Accommodation & Restaurants.
A schedule which contains information on identification, establishment particulars, employment with the breakup of characteristics such as gender, type, and nature along with vacancy details, skill development program conducted, on-the-job training provided by establishments, etc. has been used for the survey. Detailed information on the methodology and limitations of the survey was published by Factly earlier.
The type of ownership of most establishments was proprietary
The percentage distribution of establishments by their type of ownership for the 9 selected sectors is demonstrated in the following chart. The share of Proprietary establishments accounted for the highest with 30.2%, followed by Private Limited Company accounting for 21.6% and Government/PSU with 20.3%. Non-profit institutions account for 11.7% while the share of other types of ownership such as partnerships, cooperatives, and others are below 10% each.
Employment in the 9 sectors has gone up by 2 lakhs in the second quarter
Data indicates that ‘Private Limited Companies’ were most prominent in the IT/BPOs sector with 83.1% of the establishments in the sector followed by the Construction sector with 47%. The estimated establishments which are ‘Private Limited Companies’ in the construction sector have come down from 56.3% in Q1 to 47% in Q2.
Within Government/PSU ownership, the highest number of estimated units were reported in the financial services sector (40.6%), followed by Education (43%) as compared to 54.2% and 42.7% respectively in the previous quarter. The share of ‘non-profit institutions’ type of establishments was high for Education (31.5%) and Health (15.7%) sectors while there were no such establishments in Construction, IT/BPOs, and Transport sectors. This is understandable as mainstream education establishments still operate through non-profit societies in most places. 61.7% of the establishments in Accommodation & Restaurants, 50.8% in Trade, and 43.2% in Manufacturing had Proprietary ownership.
The estimated total employment in the nine selected sectors in the second quarter of 2021-22 was 3.10 crore approximately, which is 2 lakhs more than the estimated employment in the first quarter which was 3.08 crore. Furthermore, the total employment for these 9 sectors was reported as 2.37 crore in the Sixth Economic Census (2013-14).
The manufacturing sector alone accounted for 39.1% of the total employment estimated in the select 9 sectors, followed by Education with 22%. The health sector accounted for 10.8% while IT/BPO accounted for 10.7% in Q2, up from 6.7% in Q1. The trade sector accounted for 5.3% of the employment in Q2, down from 6.6% in Q1.
The share of female employees has increased in Q2
The overall share of female workers in these nine (9) sectors has improved to reach 32.1% in the second quarter, up from 29% in the first quarter. In the first quarter, the share of female workers was lower than that recorded in the Sixth Economic Census (31%).
Moreover, of the 3.1 crores estimated employment in the second quarter, 98.1% were employees and only 1.9% were self-employed. Among the self-employed, Financial Services is the only sector in which there were more females than males whereas there were no self-employed females in the IT/BPOs sector. Among the employed, the share of females was higher than that of their male counterparts in the health sector with 50.7%. The share of female employees was also substantial in the sectors of Education (44.6%), IT/BPOs (37.6%), and Financial Services (31.1%).
87% of workers were regular workers
In the QES, employees have been categorized into 5 groups based on the terms of employment. These are self-employed, regular employees, contractual employees, fixed-term employees, and casual employees. As per data for the second quarter, 87% of the workers were regular employees, 8.3% were contractual employees, 2% were self-employed, 2.1% were casual employees, and only 0.6% were fixed-term employees. Compared to the previous quarter’s survey, the share of contractual employees, and self-employed has increased marginally.
Further, the share of self-employed was higher in Financial Services (8.5%) and Accommodation & Restaurants sector (7.5%) while it was the lowest in the IT/BPOs sector with only 0.1%. In the previous quarter, only 1% of the employees in Financial Services, 3.9% in Accommodation & Restaurants, and 1% in IT/BPO sector were self-employed.
IT/BPOs sector had 97.7% regular employees, the most for any sector. All the sectors, except Construction, had more than 80% regular employees. In the construction sector, only 71.6% were regular employees. In the second quarter, 20% were contractual employees and 6.4% were casual employees in the Construction sector while the same was 17.6% and 12.5% respectively in the first quarter.
In the manufacturing sector, 11.5% were contractual employees in Q2, up from 10.4% in the previous quarter.  Fixed-term employees have a very low share in all the sectors with the education sector having the highest share (1%). Even in the previous quarter, the share of fixed-term employees was below 1% in all sectors except manufacturing (1.6%).
91.6% of the employees in the IT/BPO sector and 59.8% in Financial Services were at least graduates
The education qualification of workers revealed that 28.4% of those working in seven sectors, excluding Education and Health, were matriculated or less educated, while another 37% were graduates or had higher qualifications. Only 18.8% of the non-Clinical workers were matriculated/secondary or less educated in the health sector while this is 26.4% of the non-Teaching staff in the Education sector. In the previous quarter, the share was 22% and 15% respectively.
Those with graduate-level and higher educational qualifications constituted 91.6% of the employees in the IT/BPO sector and 59.8% in Financial Services, up from 70% and 59% respectively, in the previous quarter. More than 40% of the employees in both Health and Education sectors were at least graduates while the same was below 35% in the previous quarter.
Improvement in employment and opportunities post-second wave is evident
Almost 90% of the establishments had less than 100 workers as compared to 91% in the first quarter. This share in the IT/BPO sector dropped to 30% in the second quarter, down from 34.8% in the first quarter. 12% of the IT/BPO establishments engaged 500 workers or more.
In the Health sector, 18% of the establishments in the first quarter had 100 or more workers which increased to 19% in the second quarter. In the case of the transport sector, 14% of the total estimated establishments were operating with 100 or more workers.
The increase of nearly 2 lakhs in employment in the second quarter could be due to the relaxation of curbs and drop in COVID-19 cases in the second quarter following the second wave in the first quarter of 2021-22. Furthermore, the survey highlighted that an estimated 5.6% of the establishments had vacancies in positions and the estimated number of total vacancies was 4.3 lakhs. About 65.8% of such vacancies were not due to retirement or resignation of the employees meaning that there is an improvement in the availability of job opportunities in these sectors.
The QES for the second quarter revealed that the proportion of women workers has increased. However, only a small proportion was self-employed. The Minister of Labour and Employment recently said that in addition to the higher participation of women in the workforce, more women should be in positions of decision-making.
QES captures a small part of the employment scenario
The data on new EPF subscribers is an indicator of the creation of new jobs and the addition of formal employment. Data from EPFO indicates that the number of new EPF subscribers was 9.76 lakhs in July 2021, 9.8 lakhs in August 2021, and 9.49 lakhs in September 2021. About 58% of them were in the 18 to 25 years age group. The net payroll between July & September 2021 as per EPF data is around 38 lakhs. In other words, the QES seems to be capturing a small part of the formal employment market.
Featured Image: Quarterly Employment Survey

created: January 21, 2022


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Data: Significant decrease in the registered cases of ‘Rioting’ in 2019
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
October 9, 2020
The 2019 Crime in India report of the NCRB indicates that the number of registered ‘Offences against Public Tranquillity’ in 2019 was the lowest in 10 years. This decrease is largely due to the reduction in the registered cases of ‘rioting’. Here is a review of the data.
Recently, the country witnessed nation-wide protests against the new agrarian bills, with protests still being organised in a few states. Many farmer unions and opposition parties have called for shut down and held public rallies as a mark of protest against the bills. There are have been instances where few of these protests turned violent and the police had to make arrests, and take necessary action to maintain law & order.
Earlier in the year, there were protests organised against the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) in many parts of the country, with Delhi’s Shaheen Bagh being an epicentre of the anti-CAA protests. Some parts of Delhi also witnessed riots, resulting in loss of lives.
Apart from these more widely known instances, there are many a protest, shutdowns, rallies , riots etc. which take place across the country for various reasons. While efforts are made to ensure that the protests are organised peacefully and permission are sought from the law-enforcement authorities for the same, there could be incidents which disrupt public life and peace. Such offences are punishable by law under various sections of the Indian Penal Code (IPC).
Chapter VIII of the IPC contains various sections that list offences categorised as ‘Offences against Public Tranquillity’. These includes Section 141 to Section 160.
In its annual Crime in India (CII) report, the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) furnishes details of the offences booked under these various sections of ‘Offences against Public Tranquillity’. In NCRB’s CII – 2019 report, the ‘Offences against Public Tranquillity’ are grouped into four broad sub-categories.
In this story, we look at the data provided in NCRB’s CII report regarding the incidence of these offences, trend over the years and across the states etc.
Incidence of these Offences in 2019 lowest in the last ten years
As per NCRB’s CII report, the total number of cases booked under the various sections of ‘Offences against Public Tranquillity’ in the year 2019 was 63,359. This is a reduction of more than 17.5% compared to the previous year i.e. 2018, where in it was 76,851.
While 2019 recorded the least number of offences booked under this category over a period of 10 years (2010-2019), the highest number of cases recorded during this period was in 2017 with 78,051 offences. Over the 10-year period, there has been no specific increasing or decreasing trend with the numbers fluctuating over the years.
The fall in number of these cases in 2019 is contrary to the overall trend in cognizable IPC crimes, where in they increased from 31.3 lakhs in 2018 to 32.2 lakhs in 2019. The offences under this head constitute of 1.96% the total cognizable IPC crimes recorded in 2019. In the years 2017 and 2018, the ‘Offences against Public Tranquillity’ constituted 2.54% and 2.45% of total cognizable IPC crimes respectively.
The fall the numbers is largely due to fall in the number of ‘Rioting’ cases
Among the major four sub-categories under which the various cases of ‘Offences Against Public Tranquillity are grouped, majority of the offences are booked under ‘Rioting’. Hence, the number of cases in this category tends to follow the number of ‘rioting’ cases.
In 2018, while the number of offences booked under ‘Rioting’ and ‘Unlawful assembly’ has reduced, the number of offences under ‘Promoting enmity between groups’ and ‘Affray’ had slightly increased, contrary to the overall trend. The crimes under Affray (Section 160) refer to fighting in a public place that results in affecting the peace. However, in 2019, fewer offences were booked across all these sub-categories, with a sharp decline of almost 20% in the number of cases booked under ‘rioting’.
Fall in the number of Offences booked under Rioting in Bihar & Uttar Pradesh
While there is a general reduction in the number of ‘rioting’ cases in most of the states in 2019, the major decrease is observed in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh.
In Uttar Pradesh, the number of offences registered under ‘rioting’ in 2019 fell by nearly 36% compared to the number in 2018. In Bihar, the number reduced by over 29% from 2018. With substantial reduction in both these states, Maharashtra occupied the top spot in the number of offences recorded for rioting in 2019, although the numbers in this state also registered a decrease of about 20% from 2018.
Karnataka, Kerala , Haryana and other states have also registered fewer cases under ‘rioting’ in 2019. Jharkhand is an exception among the states that recorded higher numbers under ‘rioting’, where the number in 2019 increased by 20% compared to 2018.
Compared to 2017, the numbers decreased in 2018 as well in the case of Bihar & a few other states. However, this decrease was offset by an increase of cases in Maharashtra in the same year.
Rioting related to ‘Land & Property Disputes’ constitute the major proportion of the cases registered in Bihar. The fall in overall number of cases under rioting, can be attributed to the fall in number of cases relating to Land & Property disputes. The number of ‘Rioting’ cases related to land & property disputes in Bihar was 7030 in 2017 which fell to 6608 and 3707 in 2018 & 2019 respectively. Bihar also registers a higher number of ‘riot’ cases due to Family disputes and agrarian causes.
The case for Uttar Pradesh is not clear since a majority of the offences booked for rioting are categorised as ‘Other Rioting’  and there is a comparative decrease in these numbers. The same is the case with most of the other states, with a substantial number of  ‘Rioting’ cases  categorised as ‘Other Rioting’.
Kerala stands out with clearer categorization under Rioting. Major portion of these offences are either due to Land/property related disputes or due to participation in ‘Andolan & Morcha’.
Fewer cases are registered under ‘Affray’ & ‘Unlawful Assembly’  in Bihar & Uttar Pradesh
While Bihar and Uttar Pradesh report high number of cases when it comes to Rioting, it is not the case for other sub-categories i.e. ‘Unlawful Assembly’ & ‘Affray’ .
In 2019, out of the 8889 offences booked under ‘Unlawful Assembly’ across the country, Bihar reported 33 and Uttar Pradesh reported 140 such cases. Rajasthan reported the highest number under this head with more than 3 thousand such offences in 2019.  It is followed by Tamil Nadu & Kerala. The number of offences reported under this head in Assam & Tamil Nadu is relatively higher compared to other states, when one compares the cases reported in these states under ‘rioting’. Among various states, Rajasthan has higher numbers under ‘Unlawful assembly’ than under ‘Rioting’. A similar trend with respect to state-wise breakup was observed even in 2018.
Even in the case of ‘Affray’, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh reported significantly lower numbers. Bihar reported no cases under ‘Affray’ between 2017 & 2019. Meanwhile, Uttar Pradesh reported 5,6, & 3 cases in 2017, 2018 & 2019 respectively. Haryana, Kerala & Tamil Nadu are among the states which reported a higher number of cases under this sub-category.
Scope of under reporting in lesser evident offences
Like in the case of other offences, it has to be noted these numbers refer to the reported & registered ones and do not necessarily represent the actual extent of these offences. The same has been highlighted in an earlier story and is corroborated by a study conducted by TISS (Tata Institute of Social Sciences) & BPRD (Bureau of Police Research and Development). This could explain the lower numbers reported for ‘Affray’ and ‘Unlawful Assembly’ in states like U.P & Bihar compared to the cases reported under ‘Rioting’ since rioting as an offence is more evident.  Like in the case of other crimes, we see some form of even reporting in Kerala across the categories.
Since a substantial number of these cases are registered for political & other form of protests, the disposal and the conviction rates in these cases are also important to understand the trends. We would look at these numbers in our next story.
Featured Image: Cases of Rioting

created: October 9, 2020


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Data: Significant fall in the number of ‘New EPF Subscribers’ in the below 25 age group for 2020-21
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
May 27, 2021
In the earlier story, we looked at the broad trends in EPF numbers with respect to new subscribers, exits & re-joinees. We looked at the age-wise trends in detail in this story. Data indicates that there is a significant fall in the number of ‘New EPF Subscribers’ in the below 25 age group for 2020-21.
In the earlier story, we analysed the trends in EPF payroll data for 2020-21 and the comparative trends for the last three years. It was observed that there has been a declining trend in the number of new subscribers to EPF and those that have exited. At the same time, there is an increase in the number of re-joinees.   In this story, we take a look at Age-wise trends in the EPF numbers which could offer more insights.
Fall in EPF Net Payroll in ‘Under 26’ age groups, while it increased in higher age bands
We have earlier observed that the Net EPF Payroll for the year 2020-21 is 77.08 lakhs, slightly less than the previous year (78.58 lakhs). The trend though is not consistent across the various age bands.
The three age bands ‘Under 26 years’ of age i.e., less than 18, 18-21 & 22-25 as categorized by the EPFO report, have reported a fall in net EPF numbers for 2020-21 compared to 2019-20.
Within them, the decline is more prominent in the younger age band. Furthermore, the decline in Net EPF payroll numbers in ‘Less than 18’ age band is a continuation of the trend observed even earlier. On the other hand, the trend is opposite among the higher age-bands. While the growth rate has slowed down compared to the earlier years, there is still an increase in the net EPF numbers.
In spite of a fall during Lockdown, the Net Payroll numbers increased in later months
The lower EPF Net payroll numbers during the lockdown have contributed significantly to the lower numbers for the year 2020-21. In the earlier story, we had observed that the monthly numbers have shown a recovery in the later months of the year as the country gradually opened up. This trend was also observed in different age bands. However, difference in trends among the age-bands can be observed, that have influenced the overall trend  in the net EPF payroll in 2020-21.
The negative net figures that were reported in April & May’2020 were due to the negative numbers in mostly the higher age groups. Here is a snapshot of the broad trends in age-band wise trends of net EPF payroll.
The lower growth in the youngest age band, and the higher recovery in higher age bands corroborates the trend observed in our earlier story that there is a fall in the new-joinees to EPF, while there is an increase in the re-joinees.
Typically, younger age groups are among the new joiners to EPF payroll, as they start with formal employment after their education. The higher age groups on the other hand contribute significantly to the re-joinees as they switch to new jobs, re-join the workforce after a break or loss of employment.
Declining trend in new joinees across age-bands with an increase in re-joinees in higher age-bands
The trend in number of new joinees indicate that there is a decline not only during 2020-21, that is impacted by pandemic but also even prior to that.
New Joinees: The new joinees to EPF is a broad indicator of the employment creation in the country because most of those who take up formal employment for the first time and are eligible for EPF are enrolled as new joinees. Age-wise data indicates that the decline in the number of new joinees is across the age groups. In fact, the fall in numbers across the age-groups is seen even prior to 2020-21 in line with the overall trend of new joinees to EPF, as highlighted earlier.
Exits: In case of those who have exited EPF during 2020-21, there is a decline in the numbers across all the age-bands with the exception of ‘35 and above’ age band. The trend is a continuation from the previous year where a decline is observed across the age-groups. Declining numbers for exit could indicate stability in the current employment. However, an increase in the number of people that have exited EPF in the ‘35 above’ age group during 2020-21, points towards job losses in case of experienced employees.
Analysis of the trend through 2020-21 shows that a higher number of exits were during the first quarter, which gradually improved over the following three quarters. The number of exits has been lower in the last two months of the year.
Re-Joinees: The overall trend for re-joinees is an increasing one, but this trend is not observed in the younger age-bands. Both in the case of ‘less than 18’ and ‘18-21’ age bands, the number of re-joinees in 2020-21 is less than that of 2019-20.  The decline in 2020-21 for these age groups is a reversal of sorts since there was an increase in the number of re-joinees in 2019-20.
In the rest of the age groups, there is an increase in the number of re-joinees in EPF in 2020-21 compared to previous years. However, the growth in the number of re-joinees is lower than in 2019-20. Especially in the age groups of 22-35, there is a significant fall in the growth of re-joinees in 2020-21.
EPF data shows impact of COVID-19 on employment
In the earlier story, we had highlighted that the decline in the number of new EPF subscribers points towards a slowdown in the creation of new job opportunities. However, this is not specific to 2020-21 but a trend observed in the last few years.
The age-wise information further corroborates this development. Comparatively higher volume of new members is among the age bands between 18-25 since that’s the age when most find formal employment for the first time. A decline in these numbers is a direct indicator of the new job opportunities.
The increase in the number of exits in ‘age 35 & above’ with a fall in the lower age groups, indicates the higher vulnerability of the older age-groups to loss of employment in a pandemic year. The lower proportionate increase in the re-joinees in the higher age groups in 2020-21 points towards the larger churn in the employment scene during & post lockdown.
Featured Image: EPF Data for 2020-21


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Significant increase in budget allocation & expenditure of the Ministry of AYUSH in the last few years
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
March 18, 2022
The debate around the Indian traditional systems of medicine AYUSH (Ayurveda, Yoga, Naturopathy, Unani, Siddha and Homeopathy) continued even during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as data indicates, ever since AYUSH was made a ministry, the budget allocation & actual expenditure of the Ministry have significantly increased.
The Ministry of AYUSH was formed on 09 November 2014, with a vision of revising knowledge of traditional Indian systems of medicine and propagation of AYUSH systems of healthcare. Prior to the creation of a separate Ministry, these systems were under the aegis of the Department of Ayurveda, Yoga, Naturopathy, Unani, Siddha and Homeopathy (AYUSH) under the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Ministry announced initiatives to conduct research on COVID-19 through these traditional systems of medicine.
In this story, we look at the trends in budget allocation to the Ministry of AYUSH since its inception.
More than 3-fold increase in the Actual expenditure of the Ministry in 2020-21 compared to 2013-14
As mentioned previously, the new Ministry of AYUSH was formed in November 2014. The budget estimates for the Department of AYUSH during 2013-14 was Rs. 1.25 thousand crores while the actual expenditure was only Rs. 642 crores in that year.
During 2014-15, when the department was made as a separate Ministry, the similar trend of lesser actual expenditure compared to the budget estimates continued, with Rs.616 crores of actual expenditure compared to Rs. 1.27 thousand crores of Budget Estimates.
Since then, there has been an improvement in the actual expenditure compared to the initial budget estimates for the ministry.  There is a considerable increase in the actual expenditure of the ministry since 2015-16. It increased by nearly 75% in 2015-16 compared to the actual expenditure in 2014-15. However, except for 2017-18, the actual expenditure remained slightly lower than the initial budget estimates for the rest of the years.
During the pandemic, there was an increase in the initial budget estimates for the Ministry of AYUSH. In 2020-21, the initial budget estimates were Rs. 2.122 thousand crores, which was revised to Rs. 2.32 thousand crores. However, the actual expenditure for the year was Rs. 2.126 thousand crores, slightly more than the initial budget estimates.
In 2021-22, the initial budget estimates for the Ministry were Rs. 2.97 thousand crores, which was 40% higher than in 2020-21. However, the revised estimates were reduced to Rs. 2.66 thousand crores. In 2022-23, Rs. 3.05 thousand crores are allocated in the initial budget estimates.
Support to Autonomous bodies under AYUSH forms the major share of the Ministry’s expenditure
One of the main objectives of AYUSH is to provide support to research institutions, educational institutions, etc. This is reflected in the budget allocation as well as a major share is provided to various autonomous institutions relating to AYUSH.
Institutions relating to Ayurveda have a higher allocation among the various Autonomous bodies
Budget allocation is made for various autonomous institutions that are connected to the AYUSH Ministry and the AYUSH systems of medicine.
The introduction of new Central sector schemes have contributed towards increased budget allocation for 2022-23
As already highlighted, there is an increase in both the revised estimates for 2021-22 and budget estimates for 2022-23 for Central sector Schemes under the Ministry of AYUSH. This increase is due to the introduction of new schemes. Apart from the increase in support to various autonomous bodies under different systems of AYUSH, the government has also introduced new schemes. The major Central sector schemes that were introduced are:
Apart from these, Rs. 25 crores were allocated towards Pradhan Mantri VRIKSH AYUSH Yojana in 2020-21 but the estimates for 2021-22 & 2022-23 were only Rs. 1 crore each for this scheme.
Schemes related to Information, Education & Communication, as well as Promotion of International Cooperation have also received a higher allocation in recent years.
Based on the trends in allocation & expenditure for various initiatives & institutions Ministry of AYUSH, it is observed that there is a significant increase in the spending since a separate ministry is created for AYUSH. In addition to the increase in allocation, there is also a significant improvement in the utilization of the budget as is evident from the actual expenditure in the last few years.
While there are apprehensions from certain quarters on the government’s focus on these traditional systems of medicine, their utility & usefulness is widely accepted for a range of illnesses. The need is, however, to increase emphasis on research and organization of the traditional systems of medicine to encourage evidence-based outcomes for them to have global acceptance.
Featured Image: Expenditure of the Ministry of AYUSH