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Data: Andhra Pradesh & Telangana Register Highest Increase in Annual Ground Water Recharge in Last Decade
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
July 25, 2023
As per data provided in the 2022 National Compilation of Dynamic Ground Water Resources Assessment of India report, states like Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Gujarat registered a greater increase owing to government interventions. There are huge variations both in the extraction as well as recharge across states.
Groundwater is an invisible yet the most valuable resource on the planet. It is annually replenished, but its availability is not uniform across time and space. Any approach towards sustainable usage of groundwater pegs a realistic assessment of the patterns in the existing resources, utilization of those resources, and the projected availability for the future.  Accordingly, the National Water Policy, of 2012 laid emphasis on the periodic assessment of groundwater resources on a scientific basis. A total of seven periodic assessments have been done since 2000.
In an earlier story on groundwater resources, we looked at the trends at an all-India level. In this part, the focus is to look at the performance of the states on various parameters of groundwater assessments.
Andhra Pradesh & Telangana register highest increase in annual groundwater recharge in last decade.
At an all-India level, the annual groundwater recharge in India has declined marginally from 447 billion cubic meters to 438 billion cubic meters (bcm). The state-level data on the annual groundwater recharge shows that states like Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Gujarat registered a greater increase, while states like Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, and West Bengal registered a decline. The 2022 National Compilation of Dynamic Ground Water Resources Assessment of India report mentions that the increase in groundwater recharge in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana can be attributed to government interventions. Particularly for Telangana, the water conservation activities under Mission Kakatiya, improvement in surface water irrigation and drinking water supply under Mission Bhagiratha have led to a greater increase in the annual groundwater recharge.
The change in rainfall patterns and data, reduced recharge from ponds and tanks, increased groundwater irrigation and urbanization are among the common reasons behind the decline in annual groundwater recharge.
Ground water Recharge from “Other Sources” is dominant in States with history of growing water-intensive crops.
The Annual Replenishable Ground Water Resource originates is contributed by two major sources – Rainfall and various other sources encompassing canal seepage, return flow from irrigation, seepage from water bodies, and artificial recharge via water conservation structures. The recharge from rainfall, which includes both monsoon and non-monsoon periods, constitutes over 60% of the total annual groundwater replenishment for the country. The remaining 40% is attributed to “Other Sources”, such as canal seepage, return flow from irrigation, and recharge from tanks, ponds, and water conservation structures.
In 2022, states like Jharkhand, Kerala. Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal have more than 60% of the groundwater recharge from Rainfall. On the other hand, states like Punjab, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Haryana present a contrasting picture, with “Other Sources” contributing to more than three-fifths of the annual groundwater recharge. Drastic improvement can be seen in states like Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, which have reversed their respective shares from rainfall and other sources between 2013 and 2022. It can be observed that the states that have a traditional history of growing more water-intensive crops have a greater share of groundwater recharge from “Other Sources”.
Stage of Extraction of ground water remains worrisome in Punjab, Rajasthan, and Haryana.
The stage of groundwater extraction is defined as the ratio between the existing gross groundwater extraction for all purposes and the annual extractable groundwater resources. At the level of assessment units, if the stage of extraction is below 70%, it is categorized as ‘Safe’, while 70-90% is categorized as ‘semi-critical’, 90-100% is categorized as ‘critical’ and anything above 100% is considered as ‘over-exploited’.  The average stage of groundwater extraction for the country as a whole is around 60.1%.
However, the state-wise data on the stage of groundwater extraction offers a different picture. States like Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan have a very high stage of extraction. The share of assessment units in Punjab and Rajasthan that are ‘safe’ has reduced to a meager 12% in 2022, from almost 20% in 2013. In Haryana, only one-fourth of the total assessment units are classified as safe. Interestingly, these are among the states for whom the groundwater recharge from ‘Other Sources’ is high.
On the other hand, states like Andhra Pradesh and Telangana have improved the share of safe assessment units between 2013 and 2022.  These are also the states that have a major share of groundwater recharge from ‘Other Sources.’
Groundwater extraction for industrial and domestic usage on a rise
At an all-India level, more than 80% of the groundwater extraction happens only for Irrigation. The overall extraction for irrigation increased from 212 bcm in 2004 to 228bcm in 2013. It had been declining since then, settling at 208 bcm in 2022. On the other hand, the extraction for industrial and domestic purposes cumulatively has been rising, from 18 bcm in 2004 to 31 bcm in 2022.
At a state level, there is no specific pattern in the annual extraction for either purpose. However, in states like Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, the extraction for irrigation has been rising consistently between 2013 and 2022, while for states like Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Punjab have seen a decline in extraction for irrigation between 2017 and 2022. On the other hand, states like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Bihar have seen consistent growth in extraction for industrial and domestic purposes from 2004 to 2022.
Telangana sees more than 150% increase in net groundwater availability for future use.
Groundwater is a valuable resource. Its effective utilization and preservation for future use remain an utmost priority for the governments. The water available for future use is obtained by deducting the allocation for domestic use and current extraction for Irrigation and Industrial uses from the Annual Extractable Ground Water Recharge.
Between 2017 and 2022, the net GW availability for future use at an all-India level grew by 9%. At the state level, Telangana has grown by more than 150%, followed by Gujarat with 53%, and Andhra Pradesh with 51%. Among the large states, Kerala, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and West Bengal have registered a decline in the net GW availability for future use.


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Data: Annual Court disposal rate of ‘Riot’ cases is less than 10%
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
October 14, 2020
The NCRB data indicates that though the number of new ‘riot’ cases has come down in the last few years, the pendency with the police has increased. Data further indicates that the same is the case with the courts. The annual disposal rate in courts of ‘riot’ cases is a dismal less than 10%. Even in those, more people are acquitted than convicted.
In the earlier story, we analysed the trends in Police disposal of cases relating to offences against Public tranquillity. The data indicates that even though the number of reported cases has come down, the pendency rate with the police has increased.
We have also observed that around 70% of the cases that are being investigated by the police are being chargesheeted within a period of 6 months and then move to the courts for trial. Trends over the last three years indicate that the number of cases being chargesheeted by police has reduced in line with the fall in the number of reported cases, although the charge sheeting rate has gone up. Even the proportion of long-standing cases being chargesheeted has increased in the recent times.
Like we discussed in the previous story, the complete picture of the quality of the police investigation would be clear only after looking at the court disposal of these cases. In this story, we look at the numbers provided in NCRB’s Crime in India reports regarding disposal of these cases in courts.
Like with Police, pendency has increased in Courts despite a fall in new cases
Numbers from the last two years i.e. 2018 & 2019 indicate that the number of cases sent for trial at the courts has reduced.  After an increase in 2017, the number of new cases sent for trial has shown a downward trend. In spite of a reduced number of cases that came up for trial, the total number of cases pending in courts at the end of each year has seen a consistent increase. In 2015, more than 4.95 lakh cases relating to ‘offences against public tranquillity’ were up for trial in courts, which increased to 5.71 lakh cases in 2019.
Further, the number of cases pending trial in courts at the end of a year also saw a year-on-year increase despite the reduction in the number of new cases.  Over the five-year period (2015-19), the number of cases pending trial in the courts at the end of the year increased from more than 4.57 lakh cases  by the end of 2015 to 5.33 lakh cases by the end of 2019.
With this huge backlog of cases pending trial in the courts, no amount of reduction in the new cases would help unless there is a substantial improvement of 3-4 times in the disposal rate. Only such an increase in the disposal rate would be able to reduce the pendency in courts.
Number of Acquittals are higher than convictions, however the ratio has reduced
Data indicates that in 2018 & 2019, the number of cases disposed by the courts is less than the number compared to that of 2017. Compared to 37.8 thousand trials completed in 2017, the various courts in India were only able to complete trials of 35.9 thousand and 35.3 thousand cases relating to offences against public tranquillity in 2018 and 2019. However, these numbers are slightly higher than 2015 and 2016.
Apart from the cases which resulted in an acquittal or a conviction, a sizable number of cases are disposed without conducting a trial. These could be because of the prosecution (governments) withdrawing cases.  The number of such cases also fell over the period 2015-19.
Data indicates that in the cases relating to ‘Offences against Public Tranquillity’, the number of acquittals is significantly more than the convictions. However, the ratio of Acquittals and Convictions has come down over the years. In 2015, there were more than 4 acquittals for every conviction, which has come down to around 2.3 in 2019. This is due to an increase in the number of convictions and a reduction in the number of acquittals over the years. The trend of acquittals being more than convictions is contrary to the overall trend in IPC cases where the number of convictions is higher than the acquittals.
Number of Acquittals compared to Convictions is higher in ‘Riot’ cases
Cases belonging to ‘Rioting’ form the major portion of the cases up for trials in the courts for ‘Offences Against Public Tranquillity’. Around 4.7 of the 5.7 lakh cases i.e. 83% of the cases of  ‘offences against public tranquillity’ that are pending trial in the courts at the end of 2019 are related to ‘rioting’. The proportion of these cases was much higher in 2017 when 91% of the pending cases under this head belonged to riots.
Meanwhile, in terms of disposal of these ‘riot’ cases, the numbers have reduced in line with the overall trend. However, the major variation is in the ratio of Convictions to Acquittals.
For all ‘offences against pubic tranquillity’, the ratio of acquittals to convictions has reduced over the years while the ratio remained nearly the same in the case of ‘riots’.
Around 75% of the cases in court pending trial for more than a year
Out of the 5.33 lakh cases relating to ‘offences against Public Tranquillity’ that were pending in courts by the end of 2019, 3.25 lakh cases were pending for a period of 1-5 years, and another 79 thousand cases were pending for more than 5 years. Together, these make up for 75% of the cases under the category ‘offences against Public Tranquillity’ that were pending in courts at the end of 2019. The proportion of cases that were pending for more than a year, was nearly the same even in earlier years.
There was a significant drop in the long-standing cases, i.e. pending for over 10 years. In 2017, there were around 21 thousand such cases which reduced to around 15 thousand in 2019.
This fall in the long pending cases can be attributed to the disposal of long standing ‘riot’ cases. In 2017, there were 19.8 thousand ‘riot’ cases that were pending for more than 10 years. By end of 2018, this fell to 15.2 thousand and by the end of 2019, there were around 13.7 thousand ‘riot’ cases pending for over 10 years.
Reasons for delay include challenges with police investigation, rules & procedures of court etc.
Pendency of cases in courts is an issue not limited to these offences. We had analysed the pendency in courts earlier. One of the key observations was that a majority of the cases that are pending in the courts are at the stages of ‘Collection of Evidence’ and ‘Appearance in Courts’.
The data in this story, points to a  huge backlog of cases that are pending, especially the ‘riot’ cases. The annual disposal rate is less than 10% in these cases.
While there aren’t any conclusive studies which establish the reasons for such a delay in disposal of these cases by police and courts, few other studies and reports relating to specific incidents shed some light.
A report published by Human Rights Watch about  the 1984 Sikh Riots point out to the Complicity and Dereliction of duty by public officials especially the police. It highlights that after more than 3 decades, only around 30 persons have been convicted in respect to the riots which took place at such a large scale. The authorities involved are accused of repeatedly blocking the investigations and protecting the perpetrators. Poor investigation has contributed at large towards acquittals. Because of long duration of these trials, many of the victims, accused and witnesses had died in between further complicating the trial process.
This report to an extent supports the data where in the number of acquittals is higher than the convictions.
A Study by Stanford Law School on 2002 Gujarat Riots titled ‘When Justice Becomes the Victim: The Quest for Justice After the 2002 Violence in Gujarat’, bemoans the fact that the conviction rate in these ‘riot’ cases was only 1.2% as against the national average of 18.5% for all riot related cases. It notes that the convictions even to this extent were possible only after – the investigation was taken away from Gujarat police, witness protection was provided, change in public prosecutors etc.
These reasons summarise the challenges in providing justice in ‘riot’ related cases in such large-scale riots and concurs with the reasons mentioned in the report related to ‘Anti-Sikh’ riots.
While these are some of the ground realities observed for two of the large-scale riots, challenges stemming from judicial procedures also contribute towards court delays.
Section 34 and 35 of Indian Penal Code, discuss the concept of common intention in performing a criminal act.
Section 149 of IPC more specifically states the law regarding Unlawful assembly.
In all these sections, the law clearly states that any member who is part of the unlawful assembly with a common intention and common object is guilty. However, in most cases,  it is difficult for the investigating authorities to ascertain who is part of the unlawful assembly and is involved with an intent and vice versa. Obtaining evidence for the same is always a challenge which either leads to eventual acquittal or pendency.  Examples involving high profile individuals (e.g. Anti-Sikh Riots -1984, Gujarat Riots -2002, Delhi Riots -2020 etc.) show that they are acquitted or not charged due to the lack of prosecutable evidence that links them to the riots. In other cases, involving common people, this ambiguity leads to longer delays. The traditional problems with police investigation also contribute the higher acquittals.
The Rules & Orders issued by Punjab High Court regarding Trial of Riot Cases, provides an insight into the handling of these cases. The rules also highlight exemplify the challenges in handling these cases. Few of these include :
All this means that the complexities involved in collecting evidence along with the complicit nature of the authorities not only delays the trials in the courts, but also ensures that more accused are acquitted than convicted.
Featured Image: Annual Court disposal rate

source: news-factly

created: October 14, 2020

license: Creative Commons - Attribution - https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

author: Sai Krishna Muthyanolla


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Data: Apprehension of Indians by US Border Patrol Increases Significantly in the Recent Years
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
January 23, 2024
Data from the US Border Patrol indicates that the number of Indians apprehended in the US under suspicion of entering the country illegally has increased manifold. From less than 1,000 before 2009-10, the number touched nearly one lakh in 2022-23. During the same period, the total number of foreigners apprehended in the US increased from over 4 lakh persons in 2006-07 to more than 32 lakhs in 2022-23, registering an 8-fold increase.
Nicaragua’s lax border controls and lenient visa policies have made it a popular route for illegal activities, facilitated by agents. Recently, an Indian flight heading to Nicaragua was halted in France due to suspicion of carrying illegal immigrants. On 21 December 2023, a Legend Airlines flight with 303 Indian passengers took off from Dubai. After a brief stop at Vatry airport in France, near Paris, for technical reasons, the flight was prevented from continuing.
This incident highlighted the large number of Indians who go to the US or Canada illegally using what’s called ‘donkey routes’, the premise of the movie, ‘Dunki’ that was also released in December 2023. These ‘donkey routes’ are paths used by migrants to go through countries with loose visa rules to reach their desired destinations, like the US, UK, and Canada. Sometimes, migrants take risky routes, like going through dense forests with wild animals and criminals or crossing rivers in unsafe boats.
In this backdrop, we look at the statistics on the Nationwide Apprehensions of the US Border Patrol, which is part of US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and is responsible for securing the country’s borders, preventing illegal immigration, and stopping the smuggling of illegal goods. Here, apprehensions refer to the act when authorities catch and take people into custody because they suspect them of entering the United States illegally. The data for this story has been taken from Dataful’s collection on – US Border Patrol Nationwide Apprehensions, where data is available by demographic, citizenship, legal basis or authority for processing non-citizens, and the border region.
The data on the number of apprehensions includes those under US Border Patrol (USBP) Title 8, Office of Field Operations (OFO) Title 8 Inadmissible, and Title 42 Expulsions. The expulsions under Title 42 began on 21 March 2020 and were lifted on 11 May 2023.
Title 8 of the US Code contains the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA), which contains provisions that govern the removal of aliens from the US. The US government, specifically agencies like U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), has the authority to initiate removal proceedings against individuals who are deemed to violate immigration laws. Expulsions or removals can occur for various reasons, including Unauthorized Entry, Visa Violations, Criminal Violations, or Failure to Maintain the Immigration Status.
Meanwhile, Title 42 of the US Code deals with public health and welfare. Provisions of the Act include taking measures to prevent the entry and spread of communicable diseases from foreign countries into the US. The authority provided by the Act was used to temporarily suspend the entry of certain individuals into the country, including those arriving at the US-Mexico and US-Canada borders.
Number of Indians apprehended for trying to enter US illegally has increased manifold.
The data revealed that the number of Indians apprehended in the US under suspicion of entering the country illegally has increased manifold. From less than 1,000 before 2009-10, the number touched nearly one lakh in 2022-23. Between 2012-13 and 2022-23, the number has increased to more than 90 times. Expulsions under Title 42 constituted less than 6% of the total apprehensions between October 2020 and September 2023. This means that the increase in apprehensions was predominantly because of those under Title 8 itself.
During the same period, the total number of foreigners apprehended in the US increased from over 4 lakh persons in 2006-07 to more than 32 lakhs in 2022-23, registering an 8-fold increase. The share of Indians, in the total apprehensions, increased from 0.05% to more than 3% during this period.
Not just India, but China, Brazil, Russia, Canada & Mexico also recorded spike in Apprehensions since 2019-20
Apprehensions of people from China also saw a spike like in India after 2018-19. However, the scale of the increase was not as large as India’s. In 2022-23, the number of people from China apprehended was around 52 thousand. Russia also saw a similar trend. But, from less than 50 persons apprehended annually before the pandemic, the number shot up to more than 57,000 in 2022-23. Similar trends were also recorded in the Philippines, Brazil, and Canada.
US’s neighbour in the South, Mexico recorded a gradual decline in apprehensions between 2006-07 and 2016-17 from more than 8 lakhs to 1.3 lakhs. Nonetheless, since then the apprehensions spiked and went back to the mid to late 2000s levels.
While Honduras and Guatemala recorded similar trends of increasing apprehensions until 2018-19, followed by a dip in 2019-20, and a sudden spike in 2020-21, Venezuela saw a whopping increase from less than 100 until 2016-17 to nearly 3.35 lakhs in 2022-23. In 2022-23, these 3 countries along with Mexico accounted for 47% of the apprehended illegal migrants.
More Indians apprehended in the northern border unlike the overall trend
Traditionally, most of the apprehensions took place in the Southwest Land Border. For instance, in 2022-23, the Southwest border was where more than 77% of the apprehensions took place by the US Border Patrol. The four U.S. states that share this border with Mexico are California, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas. On the other hand, only about 5% of the total apprehensions by the border force were from the Northern border, where the boundary is shared with Canada, and is one of the longest international borders in the world.
Among the Indians apprehended, except in 2019-20, the southwest border was where a majority of the Indians were caught. However, in 2020-21 and 2021-22, the apprehension of Indians only varied marginally between the two borders, unlike the overall trend.
More Indian minors and Family Units are being apprehended in the recent years
Data by demographic reveals that most Indians who were apprehended are single adults. In figures, 89% of Indians apprehended by the border force between 2019-20 and 2022-23 were single adults as compared to only 69% when total apprehensions are considered. FMUA or Individuals in a Family Unit constituted 25% of the total. A Family Unit is defined as at least one noncitizen minor child and at least one noncitizen adult parent or legal guardian. The share of FMUA of all Indians apprehended has also increased over the years. So is the case with Indian minors apprehended. But there are less proportion of FMUA and minors in the global figures.
Indians entering US legally has also increased
At the same time, the total number of Indians entering the US legally by getting Visa approval has also increased significantly from over 6.5 lakh in 2006-07 to more than 10 lakh in 2016-17 and 2017-18. In the subsequent years, the numbers dropped to less than 5 lakhs in 2019-20 and 2.8 lakhs in 2020-21. In 2021-22, the number yet again increased to 7.6 lakh. It was around the time when the number dropped that the number of Indians apprehended in the US increased. However, in 2021-22, the apprehensions continued to increase even though more Indians entered the country legally.
PEW study observed that Indians constituted the third highest number of unauthorized immigrant population
According to a PEW Research Analysis, the unauthorized immigrant population in the US reached 10.5 million in 2021. This was below the peak of 12.2 million in 2007. It noted that 4.6% of U.S. workers in 2021 were unauthorized immigrants. After Mexico, El Salvador and India were the countries of origin with the largest unauthorized immigrant populations in the US in 2021, and India saw an increase since 2017.
Featured Image: Apprehension of Indians by US Border Patrol

created: January 23, 2024


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Data: Area of More than 30% Himalayan Region Glacial Lakes & Water Bodies has Increased Between 2009 & 2021
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
October 30, 2023
The Central Water Commission monitors the Glacial Lakes & Water Bodies in the Himalayan Region of Indian River Basins. Based on this data, between 2009 & 2021, the area of 146 water bodies has increased (by more than 5%), and that of 175 has reduced (by more than 5%), and another 135 have remained unchanged (change is less than 5%).
The Indian Himalayan Region (IHR), often referred to as the third pole of the world, boasts of the largest concentration of glaciers and snow outside the Polar Regions. Across the globe, studies have revealed that glaciers have been receding fast since the onset of the Industrial Revolution in the eighteenth century. As these glaciers thin and withdraw, they give rise to the expansion of glacier meltwater lakes and the creation of new ones. These lakes, nourished by glacier meltwater, are commonly known as glacial lakes. The formation of these glacial lakes typically occurs behind moraine or ice dams as the glaciers recede.
A glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) is a sudden and often catastrophic release of water from a glacier-dammed lake. These events occur when the natural dam, often composed of ice and glacial debris, holding back the water in the lake fails, releasing a significant volume of water downstream. Rapid melting of glaciers as global temperatures rise, earthquakes, and avalanches are some causes of such occurrences.
In early October 2023, there was a sudden surge in flows in the Teesta River due to GLOF, which claimed the lives of many, along with severe infrastructural damage. It washed away several bridges, parts of NH-10, and the Chungthang Dam, and has impacted several small towns and infrastructure projects in the upper reaches of the river valley in Sikkim.
GLOF Risk in Sikkim was highlighted in many reports previously
However, this was not unprecedented. Many studies and reports had earlier flagged the region as highly vulnerable to GLOFs and emphasized on the need to conduct an environmental impact assessment and potentially undertake GLOF risk mitigation measures at least two–three years ago. Earlier this year, the Standing Committee on Water Resources report on  Glacier Management in the country was presented in the Parliament. It ranked the lakes with a size of more than 1 hectare for GLOF risk considering glaciological, terrain, and associated characteristics. (Factly’s review of the report can be read here)
These lakes are spread out not just in India but over several other Himalayan countries including Nepal, Bhutan, and China. The region is a pristine source of freshwater in the entire Indian subcontinent which is vital for water supply, flood and drought mitigation, irrigation, groundwater recharge, livelihood source, tourism, and biodiversity. However, these lakes are being significantly affected due to climate-driven changes, natural processes, and anthropogenic activities. Owing to different reasons such as draining, rainfall, and rate of melting, among others over the years, the area of the lakes has either increased, decreased, or remained unchanged.
CWC monitors glacial lakes in India
In this story, we look at the change in the area of these glacial lakes and water bodies over a period of two decades, between 2009 and 2021. For this, data has been taken from Dataful where the information has been compiled from the Central Water Commission’s report. According to the report, the glacial lakes and water bodies in the Indian Himalayan region are monitored using satellite images. Some of the criteria for monitoring the glacial lakes and water bodies in the region are:
The area considered for the study is as shown:
467 water bodies with water spread area of 5.38 lakh hectares have been covered in the report
The data for 467 glacial lakes and water bodies have been identified in the report, across India, China, Bhutan, and Nepal. Majority of these, 328 were in China, 92 in India, 26 in Bhutan, and 21 in Nepal. The total water spread area of these water bodies was 5.38 lakh hectares, as of 2021.
Based on data available for both years, the area of 146 water bodies has increased (by more than 5%), that of 175 has reduced (by more than 5%), and another 135 have remained unchanged (change is less than 5%).
The data shows that 25 water bodies recorded an increase in water spread area by more than 40% between 2009 and 2021. A total of 37 water bodies recorded an increase in area by more than 30%. The area of the water body CH_33 in China (part of the Indus basin) has nearly quadrupled (388%). 219% increase in the water body HP_5 in Himachal Pradesh (part of Chenab River, Indus Basin) was recorded. CH_206’s area (in Ganga Basin) grew by nearly 159%.
The report highlighted that water bodies CH_6, CH_33, CH_39, CH_55, HP_3, HP_5 may affect Jammu & Kashmir including Ladakh, HP_3, HP_5, may affect Himachal Pradesh, CH_188, CH_206, CH_244, NP_64 may affect Bihar, SK_19, SK_20, SK_26 may affect Sikkim, AP_135, AP_206, CH_ 423, CH_ 590, CH_ 593, CH_ 834, CH_ 838, CH_ 849, CH_865, CH_1032, CH_1175, CH_1176 may affect Arunachal Pradesh & Assam respectively as they have shown increase in water spread area by 40%. Vigorous monitoring is necessary for these water bodies to avoid any future disaster. Continuous monitoring is required for those water bodies whose area has increased by more than 20%. The area of 42 water bodies has grown by 20 to 40%.
On the other hand, the areas of CH_373, CH_183, and CH_403 in the Brahmaputra and Ganga basins have reduced by more than 70%. The area of another 9 water bodies has been reduced by more than 40%.
About 35% of the water bodies in the Indus Basin recorded an increase in area
Of these water bodies, 35% in the Indus Basin, 32.5% in the Ganga Basin, and nearly 31% in the Brahmaputra Basin recorded an increase in area. While a majority of the water bodies, around 40%, considered in the Brahmaputra Basin and Ganga Basin saw a decrease in area, about 36% in the Indus Basin remained unchanged.
Area of nearly 30% of the glacial lakes and water bodies has increased
The area has increased for nearly one in three water bodies considered to be in the Himalayan Region lying in China while it is about 28% in the other countries. Area of the 30% of the water bodies in China, 40% in Bhutan, 28% in Nepal, and more than 25% in India has remained unchanged.
Of all the water bodies whose area has increased, 27% (7 out of 26) in India, 16% in China (17 out of 107), and 16.67% in Nepal (1 out of 6) have increased by more than 40%. Going by the criterion used in the report, these are the water bodies that require vigorous monitoring and have the potential to affect Indian states in the Himalayan region.
Increasing area of glacial lakes is an indicator of climate change
Himalayan lakes are crucial for the well-being of the local communities and for maintaining the ecological balance in the region. The changing area of these water bodies and glacial retreats are clear signs of increasing temperatures. These lakes, whose area is increasing, have the potential to pose a significant hazard in the form of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). India along with Pakistan, Peru, and China account for more than 50% of the globally exposed population. Another research identified 207 glacial lakes as very high-hazard and 345 as high-hazard. Most of them are concentrated in the eastern and central Himalayas.
The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA)’s revised National Disaster Management Plan (NDMP)- 2019 which addresses Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) discusses these issues in detail. It had even flagged the GLOF hazard from South Lhonak glacial lake, located in the extreme North-western part and one of the fastest growing lakes in Sikkim Himalaya, as of particular concern. Yet, the disaster claimed many lives and infrastructure.
NDMA has also issued guidelines on Management of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods in October, 2020.  The guidelines, among other things, contain roles and responsibilities, including actions to be taken by various stakeholders, which include agencies of Central and State Governments, for disaster risk management for GLOF.  The State Government of Uttarakhand has Early Warning Systems and Automatic Weather Stations installed at various locations to protect the susceptible areas.
EIA and Mitigation Strategy is what India needs
The standing committee report submitted to the Parliament noted “Himalayan-Karakoram region is becoming warmer at a faster rate than global mean by 0.5 0C which will lead to local changes in hydrology in terms of rainfall and snowfall patterns, increased melting from glaciers and threat to the infrastructure due to increase in extreme events leading to disasters.” The National Green Tribunal in its order in 2019 has also held that addressing the issue of Climate Change and its effects do fall within the ambit of the Environment (Protection) Act, 1986. Such clear noting of these issues by the Legislature and Judicial bodies of India weighs more on the necessity of EIA and the mitigation strategies and measures to be taken with utmost priority.
Considering how glaciers and water bodies are constantly monitored by the government, researchers, scientists, and other institutions, it is clear that the institutional awareness of these risks is increasing. However, conducting environmental impact assessment and implementation of strategic mitigation measures is what is needed to tackle the situation going forward to reduce or even prevent loss of life & resources at the time of disaster like in Sikkim.

created: October 30, 2023


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Data: Around 2/3rd of Persons Reported as Missing in India Are Female. More Than 50% of All Missing Persons Are Reported Traced
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
May 18, 2023
Social media is flooded with posts about missing women in the country and in various states following the controversy around the number mentioned in the teaser of ‘The Kerala Story’. Data provided in the NCRB’s CII reports indicates that females constitute around 2/3rds of all persons reported as missing. The data also indicates that 50% of all missing persons are reported as traced.
Of late, social media is flooded with posts regarding missing women in the country. This is following a claim made by a filmmaker that tens of thousands of women have gone missing from Kerala in the last decade and many of them got converted to Islam and recruited by ISIS. Following the claim, many media reports emerged citing NCRB data that over 40,000 women went missing from Gujarat. The Gujarat Police took to Twitter and stated that about 95% of them were traced and reunited with their families. In this backdrop, we look at the figures on ‘missing persons’ reported in the country.
Lakhs of people are reported missing in India every year
Every year, lakhs of people are reported as missing in India, including women and children. The Association of Chief Police Officers (ACPO) of the United Kingdom defines a missing person as “Anyone whose whereabouts is unknown whatever the circumstances of disappearance. They will be considered missing until located and their well-being or otherwise established”. The Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India follows a similar definition for missing child defined as “a person below eighteen years of age, whose whereabouts are not known to the parents, legal guardians and any other persons who may be legally entrusted with the custody of the child, whatever may be the circumstances/causes of disappearance”.
Many of these missing persons are traced by the police within a short span of time while the others are either never found or are found as victims of misfortune. Additionally, there are also cases of persons missing but not reported to the police or inquired into. There are numerous reasons, owing to social, economic, and cultural factors, why people go missing. It is not always easy to ascertain whether someone’s disappearance is intentional or unintentional. For instance, a child must have run away from home to escape abuse and becomes vulnerable to trafficking and drug abuse. However, broadly, the reasons behind people going missing are listed below.
NCRB started providing data on missing persons since 2016 following SC directions
In this story, we use data provided in the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB)’s annual Crime in India (CII) report. The datasets are sourced from Dataful, a product of Factly.
It should be noted that NCRB started providing detailed data on missing & traced persons including children from 2016 onwards following the Supreme Court’s direction in Writ Petition (Civil) No.75 of 2012 dated 17 January 2013. The Supreme Court had asked the NCRB to publish data on missing children and human trafficking cases to analyse the data and study the emerging trends, in addition to data on traced and untraced persons. It should also be noted that the data published by NCRB is restricted to those cases where FIRs have been registered by the police in respective States/UTs. There can also be many cases of missing people that do not come to the notice of the police.
20.36 lakh persons have been reported missing in the last 6 years
According to the NCRB data, a total of 20.36 lakh persons have been reported missing in the six years from 2016 to 2021. An average of 3.4 lakh people were reported missing each year or 930 persons every day or 39 persons every hour during these six years. Further, the number of persons reported missing has increased from 2.9 lakhs in 2016 to almost 3.9 lakhs in 2021, registering an increase of 34%. This is despite a 15% decline in 2020, which may be due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Females constitute a majority of these missing persons. From a share of 60% in 2016, females made up more than 68% of all missing persons in both 2020 and 2021. The number of females reported as missing has increased by almost 53% from 1.74 lakh in 2016 to 2.65 lakh in 2021 while the number of missing males has increased by less than 7%. A total of 1,235 transgender persons have been reported as missing during these six years.
Share of children among those reported missing has dropped marginally since 2016
Each of the NCRB CII reports categorized the missing persons into different age groups. In this story, we have classified the same into two- children (those aged below 18 years) and adults (those aged above 18 years).
The number of children reported as missing has increased by 22% in six years. However, the least number of children were reported missing in 2020 and the greatest in 2021. It is seen that the number of children reported missing in 2021 had increased by almost 31% as compared to 2020. Meanwhile, the number of adults, including senior citizens, reported as missing has gone up by 38% since 2016. The share of children among all the persons reported missing has dropped from almost 22% in 2016 to less than 20% in 2021. On the other side, the share of adults has increased from 78% to 80%. That is, more adults are being reported as missing, as compared to children despite an increase in the numbers of both groups.
Another observation is that the share of female children reported missing is more than that of female adults. That is, the share of females among adults reported missing was 58% in 2016 and touched 66% in 2021. The share of females among missing children was nearly 65% in 2016 and was close to 77% in 2020 and 2021.
Around 50% of the total number of persons unrecovered have been traced
The percentage share of persons traced is calculated as the percentage ratio of the total number of persons traced in the year against the total number of persons missing in that year. In other words, the number of persons traced includes even those persons reported missing in previous years and traced in that particular year. Likewise, the total number of missing persons includes even those persons unrecovered from previous years.
The percentage of missing persons traced among persons of all groups has been around 50% in the last five years. Relatively, the share of females traced is higher than that of males. The share of females traced across all age groups is between 52 to 55% while that among males is 44 to 48%. The rate of tracing among transgender persons is highly skewed because of the relatively smaller number of persons reported missing and traced. It is seen that among children, the rate of tracing females is in the range of 60 to 65% while that of males is about 55 to 60%.
In part 2 of this story, we will look at the trends in missing people, and the rate of traced persons across states.


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Around 55% of COVID-19 emergency funds released to the States so far
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
October 1, 2020
As per the data provided by the central government in both the Lok Sabha & the Rajya Sabha, an amount of Rs. 4257 crores have been released to the states till date for emergency COVID-19 response of the Rs. 7774 crores provisioned for this purpose. Data also indicates that only about 2/3rd of the ventilators supplied to the states have been installed so far.
With record number of COVID-19 cases being recorded every day, India is now the second most affected country in terms of number of infected persons after the USA. As on 30 September 2020, India’s caseload crossed 62 lakhs. This includes around 9.4 lakh active cases and more than 51.87 lakh recovered cases. A total of 97,497 deaths due to the coronavirus have also been reported, according to the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare (MoHFW).
It is necessary that States are well-equipped with the required medical supplies, infrastructure etc. especially at a time when cases are on the rise. The central government as part of the COVID-19 plan supplied equipment, medical supplies, and release funds to the states.
Earlier this year, the Central Government had approved Rs. 15,000 crore for ‘India COVID-19 Emergency Response and Health System Preparedness Package’ which would be utilized in a phased manner. As per the official press release, an amount of Rs. 7,774 crores have been provisioned for immediate COVID-19 Emergency Response and the rest for medium-term support in 1-4 years.
The package was announced as an urgent response to the pandemic for developing dedicated treatment facilities, setting up of laboratories, and also for the overall enhancement of preparedness for future pandemics. The data on financial, medical and other assistance provided by Government of India to states under the COVID-19 package was recently provided in the Lok Sabha. Here are the details of what has been supplied to states under this package.
Till date, Rs. 4257 crores released to states to deal with COVID-19
The MoHFW stated in the parliament that up to 10 September 2020, a sum of Rs. 4256.79 crores was released to States/UTs for dealing with the pandemic under the India COVID-19 Emergency Response and Health System Preparedness Package in two phases. This is around 55% of the Rs. 7774 crores provisioned for immediate COVID-19 response.
Among the states, Tamil Nadu received the highest share of Rs. 511.64 crores, about 12% of the total funds allocated. Maharashtra was allocated around Rs. 394 crores followed by Uttar Pradesh with Rs. 334 crores, and Kerala with given Rs 310 crores. Rajasthan (Rs. 285.01 crores), Telangana (Rs. 256.9 crores), and Delhi (Rs.255.12 crores) received more than Rs. 200 crores each. The fund allocated to the six states and Delhi together amounted to more than 55% of the total funds released till date. Combined, the eight union territories were allocated a total funding of Rs. 442.47 crores.
The states of Odisha, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Jharkhand received less than Rs.100 crore each while the north-eastern states of Arunachal Pradesh, Tripura, Manipur, and Meghalaya received less than Rs. 20 crores each and Mizoram, Goa, Nagaland, and Sikkim were received less than Rs. 10 crores each.
UP & Tamil Nadu received machines worth more than Rs. 10 crores
In addition to this, kits and machines were supplied to the states. Maharashtra received close to Rs. 10 crores worth 23 testing machines. Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal received machines worth Rs. 10.15 crore each. In total, testing machines worth more than Rs. 80 crores were supplied to the states.
In addition to the machines, more than Rs. 600 crores worth test kits  were supplied to states as of 11 September 2020. A total of 1.17 crore RT-PCR kits were supplied till 11 September 2020 in addition to 60.8 lakh RNA kits and 44.6 lakh VTM kits.
As of 14 September 2020, a total of 1.41 crore PPE Kits, 3.44 crore N-95 Masks, 10.84 crore Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) tablets, and 30,663 ventilators were procured by the Centre and supplied to States and central institutions. Central institutions received the lion’s share of the supplies, 11% of N-95 masks, 14% of PPE Kits, and 9.5% of the HCQ tablets. Among the states, the worst affected state of Maharashtra, which currently accounts for more than one-fifth of the cases in India received the highest share of each of the supplies.
The top five most affected states – Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, and Uttar Pradesh together received 29% of the N-95 masks, 28% of the PPE Kits, and more than 31% of HCQ tablets supplied by the central government.
94% ventilators allocated were delivered nationally but less than 2/3rd  installed
Of the ventilators allocated to various states by the central government, Maharashtra was allocated the highest- 4434 followed by Andhra Pradesh with 3960. Central Institutions, Karnataka, Uttar Pradesh, and Gujarat were allocated more than 2000 ventilators each while Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, West Bengal, and Assam were allocated more than 1000 ventilators each.
At the national level, nearly 93.5% of the allocated ventilators were delivered to states. A total of 25 states/UTs received 100% of the allocated ventilators including Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Telangana and Assam. Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu received more than 99% of the allocated ventilators whereas Jammu and Kashmir and Kerala received about 98% of it. In Punjab and Rajasthan, only around 75%of the allocated ventilators were delivered, while the central institutions received only about 58%.
While the delivery was more than 90% of the allocated numbers, less than two-thirds of the delivered ventilators were installed in the States. In terms of the percentage of installation of delivered ventilators, majority of the states (11) had installed between 50 to 70% of the delivered ventilators. Only 4 states/UT had installed above 90% the delivered ventilators, namely Dadra & Nagar Haveli, Daman & Diu, Gujarat, Goa, and Andhra Pradesh. Central institutions had installed nearly 44% of the delivered ventilators. Odisha and Assam, among the larger states, had installed less than 25% of the delivered ventilators.
Top five most affected states account for more than 50% of isolation beds, health facilities and  ICU beds
State/UT wise details of the number of health facilities, including dedicated COVID-19 hospitals, dedicated COVID-19 Health Centers and COVID-19 Care Centers were provided in response to a question in the Lok Sabha.
In total, states reported the presence of 15,249 COVID facilities in India as on 16 September 2020. Majority of these, around 3316 were in Maharashtra, and Karnataka accounted for 1842 of them while Tamil Nadu and West Bengal reported around 1200 facilities each. Among states with less than 100 facilities, Himachal Pradesh and Telangana were the only larger states. However, the number of isolation & other beds was much higher in Telangana compared to Himachal Pradesh. Telangana reported close to an average of 300 isolation beds per facility while this number was around 50 per facility in Himachal Pradesh.
All the states/UTs together reported over 15.5 lakh isolation beds of which nearly 3.5 Lakh were in Maharashtra. Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, and Andhra Pradesh reported more than one lakh beds each. Together, these five states reported more than 60% of the isolation beds at the national level. It should also be noted that these five states together account for 60% of India’s COVID-19 case load.
Together, the all the states reported 2.3 Lakh Oxygen supported beds and 63,526 ICU Beds with the five states accounting for 55% of the oxygen support beds and 59% of the ICU beds. These states also accounted for 55% of the ventilators in the country.
Featured Image: COVID-19 emergency funds

created: October 1, 2020


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85% of NPPA demand of Overcharged amounts on essential medicines
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
April 27, 2021
The NPPA regulates the price of essential medicines based on the Drug (Price Control) Order of 1995 and 2013. The NPPA files cases against pharma companies found to be overcharging consumers. As per data available on the NPPA website, more than 85% of the NPPA demand of overcharged amounts on essential medicines is yet to be realized.
For more than a month, India is experiencing the second wave of COVID-19 infections. Currently, around 3.5 lakh new COVID-19 cases are being reported daily. The phenomenal increase in the number of cases has led to an increased demand for medicines and drugs that are used in the symptomatic treatment of COVID-19. Remdesivir injection is one such medication which has seen a steep increase in demand as doctors around the country have been using it for hospitalized patients. In view of this increased demand, there are multiple news reports of it being sold in the market at much higher prices than the stipulated price.
While the authorities are taking steps to crack down on the black market of such essential drugs, there are also policies aimed at keeping the prices of such drugs under control to make them accessible. Recently, following the intervention of the National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority (NPPA), manufacturers of Remdesivir have announced a voluntary reduction of the prices of this injection.
In this story, we take a look at the role of NPPA in regulating the prices of medicines & drugs in India and the action taken by the authority against violations as per the existing regulations.
NPPA fixes the Ceiling price for medicines as per the provisions of DPCO
The National Pharmaceutical Pricing Authority (NPAA) was established as an independent body on 29 August 1997, as per the decision taken by the Cabinet Committee reviewing Drug Policy of 1994.  It is attached to the office of the Department of Pharmaceuticals (DoP) in the Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers.
The key functions of NPPA are to act as a regulator for the pricing of drugs and to ensure availability & accessibility of medicines at affordable prices and to enforce the provisions of the Drugs (Price Control) Order (DPCO).
DPCO 2013 has brought additional drugs under the pricing control ambit compared to DPCO 1995
The latest  DPCO which is under effect is the 6th Amendment of DPCO 2013 i.e. Drug (Prices Control) Amendment Order, 2019. One of the key aspects of this amendment is that the government would consider market-based data to fix the prices of the drugs.
This amendment is the latest among the various amendments made to the original Drugs (Price Control) Order, 2013. The DPCO, 2013 came into effect from 15 May 2013 and empowered NPAA to regulate the prices of 348 essential drugs. Prior to DPCO (2013) regime, the DPCO 1995 regulated the pricing of 74 bulk medicines. As per DPCO (2013), the drugs that are in the National List of Essential Medicine (NLEM) are monitored and controlled by NPPA. Apart from including additional drugs under the ambit of DPCO (2013), a few other changes were also made compared to DPCO (1995).
Hence as per DPCO (2013), NLEM assumes prominence as all the drugs that are enlisted in it are part of NPPA’s price regulation. The latest NLEM was notified in 2015 and implemented in 2016.
Around Rs. 8.18 thousand crores are pending to be collected for Overcharging cases initiated by NPPA
Responding to a question in the Lok Sabha, the government provided details regarding the cases initiated by NPPA against drug manufacturing companies for overcharging. The NPPA issues notice to the companies who are found to be overcharging the consumer.
As per the information provided in the Lok Sabha:
Before DPCO (2013) regime came into effect, a total of 926 cases booked under DPCO (1995) during the period 1997-2013. A total of Rs. 3.02 thousand crores of overcharged amount (including interest) was demanded for the overcharged drugs. Of this, more than 80% which is around Rs. 2.55 thousand crores were still outstanding.
Since 2013-14, i.e., since DPCO (2013) was introduced, cases were initiated under both DPCO (1995) and DPCO (2013). By the end of 2019-20, there are a total of 2099 cases were registered under the different DPCOs with the amount demanded valued at Rs. 6.42 thousand crores. Of this, Rs. 5.44 thousand crores are still outstanding. This is as per the information provided in the year-wise summary of the outstanding cases report  (as of September 2020) available on the NPPA website.  In 2020, a total of 13 cases were initiated as per the information available.
As per the information provided in the report, Status of Overcharging Cases, as of September 2020, CIPLA pharmaceuticals has around 50 cases pending under various stages. Among other pharma companies with a higher number of pending cases, Sun Pharma has 42 pending cases followed by Dr. Reddy’s Labs with around 30 pending cases.
Only about 15% of the amount demanded by NPPA has been collected so far.
As the data in the Year-wise summary of the Outstanding Cases Report indicates, a major portion of the amount demanded for overcharging is yet to be realized. In fact, the data shows that only about 15% of the demand amount is collected since 1997.
The information relates to both the regimes i.e., DPCO, 1995 and 2013. Both the overall value of the amount due to be collected, as well as the duration of the dues raises serious questions on the efficacy of the overall process of initiating the cases against the companies that are overcharging and the subsequent recovery process.
In its answer in Lok Sabha regarding the status of recovery, the government mentioned that the recovery of the overcharged amount is a continuous process. While NPPA pursues the cases challenged in the court, those that aren’t challenged in courts are referred to the Collector/District magistrate for recovery of the overcharged amount.
However, looking at the amount due under litigation and pending, the recovery process seems quite ineffective. The main purpose of cases initiated by NPPA is to impose penalties on companies and to deter them from overpricing in the future. But such long delays would defeat the purpose of ensuring the companies abide by the regulations.
Featured Image: Price of essential medicines


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19 States record an increase in forest cover, experts highlight the issues with methodology
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
February 4, 2022
As per the ‘India State of Forest Report (ISFR)’ for the year 2021, 19 states and Delhi have recorded an increase in forest cover. Multiple states have also recorded a significant increase in very dense forests. However, conservation experts have highlighted the issues with the methodology and that the government may be highlighting the increase to achieve targets without looking at the quality.
The ‘India State of Forest Report (ISFR)’ for the year 2021 was released recently by the Forest Survey of India (FSI). In the previous story, the methodology of this survey, important definitions such as that of forest area, forest cover, and tree cover, and the limitations in the methodology as per the report, were discussed.
Since 2011, the total forest cover in the country has increased by about 21,762 sq. km, roughly the size of the state of Mizoram. As per the 2021 report, India’s total forest cover & tree cover is about 24.62% of its geographical area. In this story, we look at the forest cover across individual states and look at factors that contributed to the increase in forest cover, as given in this report.
Forest cover has increased in South Indian states while it has decreased in the NE States
In the last decade, 19 states and Delhi have recorded a net increase in forest cover. The forest cover has increased by at least 1000 sq. km in the states of Kerala, Karnataka, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, Jammu & Kashmir, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and West Bengal. Five states including Bihar, Assam, Jharkhand, Himachal Pradesh, and Rajasthan have recorded an increase by at least 500 sq. km.
On the other hand, 10 states have registered a decline in forest cover over the last decade. The seven northeastern states of Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Mizoram, Manipur, Tripura, Meghalaya, and Sikkim fall in this category, along with Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttarakhand. Close to 91.5% of the forest cover lost in the 10 states has been reported by the 7 northeastern states which are part of the crucial biodiversity hotspots recognized globally. Though these seven states constitute less than 6% of the geographical area of the country, they account for nearly one-fifth of India’s forest cover. Together with Assam, the 8 states account for about 8% of the geographical area and for nearly 25% of India’s forest cover.
While Nagaland and Mizoram have recorded a loss in forest cover by at least 1000 sq. km, Arunachal Pradesh has recorded a reduction of 979 sq. km, while the remaining states have recorded a loss of less than 500 sq. km. Shifting cultivation has been cited as one of the reasons behind the loss of forest cover in the northeastern region.
Shifting cultivation, biotic pressure, and developmental activities cited as reasons for forest cover depletion
The report has attributed the increase in forest cover in various states to an increase in vegetation due to better conservation measures, afforestation activities, enhanced protection measures in the plantation as well as traditional forest areas, and expansion of trees outside the forest area. On the other hand, the depletion in forest cover has been attributed to short rotational plantations, shifting cultivation, biotic pressure, clearance in encroached areas, and developmental activities. Moreover, interpretational changes arising out of the use of satellites as seen in the previous story could have also affected the numbers.
Forests are categorized by FSI based on canopy density
It must be kept in mind that forest cover refers to any type of land in the country, the area of which is more than 1 hectare, and where the density of tree canopy is greater than 10%. Based on the density of canopy, the Forest Survey of India has categorized forests into three categories- Very Dense Forests (VDF), Moderately Dense Forests (MDF), and Open Forests. All lands, including mangrove canopy, are included to calculate the canopy density. The criterion is as follows.
Area of Open forests and very dense forests have increased while moderately dense forests have depleted
Though there has been a net growth of forest cover of almost 22,000 sq. km in the last decade, open forests with low canopy density are the major contributors to the growth. That is, in the last decade, Open Forests have increased from 2.87 lakh sq. km to 3.07 lakh sq. km, by over 19,300 sq. km. In other words, the increase in overall forest cover is contributed majorly by the increase in forest cover under open forests which are land areas with low canopy density. This could be because of the depletion of Moderately Dense Forests, which are closer to human habitations that have declined by over 13,846 sq. km from 3.2 lakh sq. km in 2011 to 3.07 lakh sq. km in 2021. During this period, Very Dense Forests have gone up from 83,471 sq. km to 99,779 sq. km, registering an increase of 16,308 sq. km (by 19%). In 2017, the area under Very Dense Forest (VDF) increased by 9,252 sq. km. as compared to 2015, while the growth has been around 1,000 sq. km during the other survey years.
VDF increased considerably in some states in 2017
Between 2011 and 2021, the area under VDF has increased by more than 1000 sq. km in Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, A&N Islands, Assam, Karnataka, and Chhattisgarh. The area under VDF increased considerably (about 2 to 4 times) in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Telangana, Assam, Tamil Nadu, Sikkim, and Tripura in 2017 as compared to 2015. While releasing the report in 2017, the then Environment Minister stated that much of the increase in the forest cover in 2017 was observed in VDF which is an encouraging sign as VDF absorbs maximum carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Meanwhile, Moderately Dense Forests (MDF) had declined by more than 1000 sq. km in Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Chhattisgarh, A&N Islands, Telangana, and Uttarakhand. 20 States recorded a decline in MDF since 2011. Only Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, and Tripura recorded a significant increase in area under MDF.
Under Open Forests (OF), West Bengal recorded an increase of more than 4,000 sq. km in the last decade while Kerala and Odisha recorded an increase of more than 3,000 sq. km. Tamil Nadu, AP, and Telangana, and Jammu & Kashmir also recorded an increase by more than 1,000 sq. km of open forests. At the same time, Tripura and Karnataka have recorded a decline in open forests by more than 1000 sq. km while Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim, A&N Islands, and Chhattisgarh, have also recorded a decline in open forests.
The report has been criticized by experts for being a deliberate attempt to achieve targets
While releasing the 2021 report, the Environment Minister stated that the focus of the government is not just to conserve the forests quantitatively but to enrich them qualitatively. However, experts have criticized the report for being misleading. To begin with, the definitions, as seen in the previous story, include all trees and green patches in the country including plantations, agroforestry, monoculture, etc. which may increase the green cover in the country but do not serve an ecological purpose. In fact, plantations such as eucalyptus grown to compensate for lost forest area are threatening to the environment since it causes depletion of groundwater and is vulnerable to forest fire. The report does not give any comprehensive data on the quality of the forests and tree covers, or the socio-economic purposes of forests. There have been numerous criticisms of the FSI’s report for being a deliberate attempt of the government to make sure that the quantitative targets of forest cover and carbon sinks are achieved as committed in international & national forums.
A conservation expert M D Madhusudhan has criticized the Forest Survey of India’s methodology by comparing the forest cover as reported by FSI since 1987. He tweeted how the FSI redefined the term ‘forest’ multiple times and recalculated the forest cover of previous years.
LONG THREAD: Since 1987, India has assessed its forest cover every two years in its India State of Forest Reports (ISFR), produced by the Forest Survey of India (FSI).  The 17th ISFR was released three days ago.
Here I take a closer look at the entire stack of ISFR reports… pic.twitter.com/kMoqFm0me7
Citing examples, he has also pointed out how the exercise has labelled tea estates in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu as Moderately Dense Forest, and some tea and human settlements as Very Dense Forest. He mentioned how even invasive plants in the Kutch region have been classified as forest in the report. He also highlighted how much better maps of the National Remote Sensing Centre (NRSC) are at telling natural forests from tea and coconut.
Featured Image: By Vu2sga, CC BY-SA 4.0 [via Wikimedia Commons]

created: February 4, 2022


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Data: As Engineering & Technology Loses Sheen, Enrolments in Commerce and Science Streams Increase at Graduation & PG Levels
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
February 7, 2023
The Ministry of Education released the AISHE report for 2020-21 that provides data on parameters such as teachers, students, enrolments at graduation & PG levels. Data from 2012-13 to 2020-21 indicates as enrolment in Engineering & Technology declined, enrolments in Commerce & Science streams increased both graduation & PG levels.
The Ministry of Education has been conducting annual ‘All India Survey on Higher Education’ (AISHE) since 2010-11. It incorporates the data of all institutions offering higher education, primarily covering the data on parameters such as teachers, students, enrolments, infrastructure, examinations, and educational finances. This survey is important as it provides a complete picture of the state of higher education in India.
The survey for 2020-21 was carried out completely in an electronic mode for the first time, and this survey is also the first one to see the participation of major stakeholders such as University Grants Commissions, All India Council for Technical Education, Medical Council of India as well as State Governments in data collection. In today’s story, we look at the data from the recently released AISHE 2020-21 report & analyse trends in enrolment at various levels & in various streams.
Total Enrolment rose by 37% between 2012-13 to 2020-21
The total enrolment at all levels and across all social categories grew from 30.2 million in 2012-13 to 41.4 million in 2020-21, increasing by almost 37% between these years. The average enrolment at undergraduate levels stood at 2.82 crores, while for that of post-graduate levels stood at an average of 40 lakhs during this period. If we consider the enrolment across the social groups, the average share of Scheduled Castes in the total enrolment stands at 14%, while for Scheduled Tribes, it is 5.1%. For other Backward castes, the share in total enrolment adds up to 34%.
The share of males in the total enrolment fell from 55.1% in 2012-13 to 51.3% in 2020-21, while the share of females rose from 44.9% to 48.7% during the same period. The absolute enrolment of females at all levels crossed the 2-crore mark for the first time in 2020-21.
Further, it is observed that the percentage share of Muslims in the total enrolment rose from 4.2% in 2012-13 to 5.5% in 2019-20. However, their share declined to 4.6% in 2020-21. The share of other minorities also fell from 2.3% to 2% during 2019-20 to 2020-21. The average share of other minorities stood at 2% of the total enrolment during 2012-13 to 2020-21.
Once most preferred, Engineering & Technology stream losing sheen.
To look at the changing preferences of students across disciplines, the total enrolment at undergraduate level for major disciplines is analysed. Disciplines are majorly categorized into four streams – Arts, Sciences, Commerce, and Engineering & Technology. Other disciplines such as medical sciences, law, management among others are not considered for this analysis. It is observed that Arts remains the stream with highest student enrolments, followed by sciences, commerce, and engineering & technology.
Interestingly, the sciences stream stood fourth among major streams in terms of total enrolment during 2012-13 and 2013-14. The enrolment in science stream improved steadily, making the stream the second highest from 2015-16 to 2020-21. The enrolment in sciences and commerce streams rose gradually from 25.3 lakh to 48.2 lakh and 28.9 lakh to 43.2 lakh respectively during 2012-13 to 2020-21.
And once most preferred stream, engineering and technology fell from being the second in highest enrolment to fourth between 2012-13 to 2020-21. After a brief increase in the enrolment from 34.7 lakh in 2012-13 to 42.5 lakh in 2015-16, the enrolment in the engineering and technology declined consistently, falling to 36.9 lakh in 2020-21.
A gendered perspective at undergraduate level also reveals that engineering & technology stream is heavily skewed towards males, with more than 70% share, while females outnumber males in Arts and sciences stream by a slight margin.
More than 75% increase in students enrolling in social sciences at post-graduate level.
Data indicates that the number of students enrolling in social sciences stream at postgraduate level grew from 5.33 lakh in 2012-13 to 9.42 lakh in 2020-21, representing an increase of 77%. In fact, 2020-21 itself saw a huge increase in enrolment by nearly 20% as compared to 2019-20. Similarly, the students enrolling in sciences and management streams at postgraduate levels rose by 69% and 24% respectively during the 2012-13 to 2020-21.
Commerce stream saw the highest growth of 122%, increasing from 2.42 lakh in 2012-13 to 5.37 lakh in 2020-21. Engineering and Technology is the only stream among these four major streams to register a decline in the total enrolments. It declined by 8.8% from 1.94 lakh in 2012-13 to 1.77 lakh in 2020-21.
Marginal Improvement in diversity in STEM
STEM includes Science stream (including Mathematics) and Engineering & Technology stream. The data for the last five years on enrolments in STEM indicates a marginal improvement in the gender and caste diversity. The share of females in the total enrolment in STEM improved from 39.91% in 2016-17 to 42.03% in 2020-21, peaking to 43.2% in 2019-20. In terms of caste representation, the share of Scheduled Castes in the total enrolment stood advanced from 12.11% in 2016-17 to 12.59% in 2020-21, while for Scheduled Tribes, it expanded from 3.62% to 4.42%, and for OBCs, it improved from 38.08% to 39.71% during the same period.

created: February 7, 2023


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As Government leases Airports under PPP, here is how they have performed so far
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
August 29, 2020
The government announced leasing out six major airports through PPP mode while six more are in the pipeline. But what has been the performance of these airports like, in the last few years? How many of the AAI managed airports made losses and how many are profitable?
Recently, the Union Cabinet chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi approved the proposal to lease out three airports of the Airports Authority of India (AAI) – Jaipur, Guwahati, and Thiruvananthapuram, through Public Private Partnership (PPP), to Adani Enterprises. The government’s press release states that the company was declared as the successful bidder in a Global Competitive Bidding conducted by AAI and will be taking over charge of operations, management, and development for a period of 50 years.
Government claims that PPP model has helped in the creation of world class airports
The government claimed that PPP model  has helped create world class airports and also deliver efficient and quality services to passengers. Further, it has also helped increase revenue and the work on developing airports and air traffic infrastructure in India. The revenue received by AAI through PPP operational model has also helped develop infrastructure facilities in Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities and upgrade the airports there to international standards.
Modi’s vision 2025 is to privatize 30-35 airports under PPP
According to the report of the Task Force constituted in the Department of Economic Affairs, the Prime Minister’s vision for Airport Sector in 2025 is to improve India’s rank in global aviation market. By 2025, 30 to 35 airports owned by AAI will be privatized as PPPs. So far,  six (6) airports have been privatized, namely, Lucknow, Ahmedabad, Jaipur, Mangalore, Thiruvananthapuram, and Guwahati. However, the Kerala government has opposed the privatization of Thiruvananthapuram airport. Reports suggest that the bid to privatize another six airports- Tiruchirappalli, Bhubaneswar, Amritsar, Raipur, Indore, and Varanasi will soon be open.
AAI was constituted in 1995 for managing civil aviation infrastructure
The Airports Authority of India (AAI) was constituted by an Act of Parliament and came into being on 01April 1995, by merging erstwhile National Airports Authority and International Airports Authority of India.  The merger brought into existence a single Organization entrusted with the responsibility of creating, upgrading, maintaining, and managing civil aviation infrastructure both on the ground and air space in the country. AAI manages a total of 137 airports which include 24 International airports, 10 Customs Airports, 103 Domestic airports, and 30 civil enclaves. As of 2018-19, a total of 126 airports were being managed by AAI.
Gujarat has the maximum number of airports managed by AAI
Gujarat with 11 is home to the maximum number of airports managed by AAI. This is followed by 9 in Uttar Pradesh and 8 each in the states of Assam, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu. There were 7 airports each in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan, and West Bengal managed by AAI. Together, the number of airports in these states account for 58% of the airports under AAI.
Only 13 airports under AAI made profits in 2018-19
In 2018-19, only 13 of the total 113 operational airports made profits according to an RTI response from AAI. The data for 2019-20 is still unavailable. The number of AAI airports that made profits is the least in 2018-19 in a period of 3 years. On the other hand, 100 of 126 airports managed by AAI in 2018-19 reported losses. In other words, 79.3% of the airports under AAI reported losses in 2018-19. Since 2011-12,  the year 2018-19 saw the greatest percentage of AAI managed airports reporting losses.
Total Loss in 2018-19 crossed Rs. 500 crores
In the past eight years, the overall performance of airports under AAI has been wavering up and down with no definitive trend. The AAI airports together reported losses in six of the eight years since 2011-12. The overall loss in 2012-13 was over Rs. 1017 crores, the greatest loss reported in these 8 years.  In 2014-15, the loss reduced to Rs. 597 crores which further dropped to Rs. 240 crores in 2015-16. In 2016-17, an overall profit of Rs.142 crores was reported and in the following year, in 2017-18, a profit of Rs. 599 crores was reported. However, in 2018-19, it was back to losses when the airports together reported a loss of Rs. 544 crores, the worst in four years. In 2017-18, the performance of 28 airports improved while that of 84 airports worsened.
Cumulative performance reveals that only 13 airports made profits in eight years
The cumulative financial performance of these airports between 2011-12 and 2018-19 indicates that only 13 airports made an overall profit in these 8 years. Chennai airport made the most profit with Rs. 3114 crores. It has been consistently making profit of more than Rs. 300 crores in each of these eight years, except in 2018-19. Kolkata made the second highest profit with Rs. 1302 crores followed by Goa with Rs. 650 crores and Pune with Rs. 474 crores. Thiruvananthapuram, Lucknow, and Ahmedabad which have been privatized under PPP have made a cumulative profit in the eight years. Tiruchirappalli too, which is being proposed for PPP privatization, has reported a cumulative profit. Raipur and Varanasi are among those airports proposed for privatization which have reported highest cumulative loss of more than Rs.300 crores.
Performance of the privatized airports has always been better than the majority AAI airports
As noted earlier, Ahmedabad, Thiruvananthapuram, Lucknow, Guwahati, Mangalore, and Jaipur are the six airports that have been privatized till date under PPP. Two of these airports- Mangalore and Thiruvananthapuram are in the south (Kerala and Karnataka), one is in the north (Lucknow -Uttar Pradesh), one in North East (Guwahati – Assam), and two from the west (Ahmedabad -Gujarat and Jaipur – Rajasthan).
Except in 2012-13, Ahmedabad airport has been reporting profits. Its profit rose from Rs. 32 crores in 2013-14 to Rs. 177 crores in 2017-18. In 2018-19, the profit dropped to Rs. 52 crores. Meanwhile, Thiruvananthapuram airport, reported loss in three of the years. However, from a loss of Rs. 23 crores in 2016-17, the profit increased to Rs.142 crores in 2017-18. In 2018-19, the profit dropped to Rs.81 crores. Lucknow airport witnessed profits only in three years between 2015-16 and 2017-18. Guwahati airport had recorded losses up to 2015-16. In 2015-16, a profit of Rs. 8.66 crores was reported which further rose to Rs. 37.09 crores in 2016-17. In 2017-18, the airport reported a loss of Rs. 8.12 crores and in 2018-19, a profit of Rs. 30.59 crores was reported. Jaipur reported a profit only in 2017-18 while in the other years, it has been reporting losses. Similarly, Mangalore airport too reported profits only in 2016-17 (Rs. 34 Lakhs only) and 2018-19.
Government has given multiple reasons for losses
The government has mentioned multiple reasons for the poor financial performance of airports. These include low air traffic movement which has resulted in lesser aeronautical revenue, low non-aeronautical revenue potential, and basic operating expenditure on account of regulatory/IATA and security requirements.
The Government announced various steps that it has been undertaken to overcome these losses such as development of cargo activities, enhancement of non-aeronautical revenue through rate revision, award of contracts through master concessions, and allowing operation of flying schools at non-operational airports. Encouraging maintenance, repair and overhauling activities, revision of base rates, are some of the other measures. The UDAN scheme, introduced by the government with the objective to increase air traffic at these airports, is a step in the right direction.
Under Atmanirbhar package, government will be easing restrictions on Indian Air Space
On top of these mounting losses, the COVID-19 pandemic is set to take a heavy toll on all the aspects of aviation include airport operations. The government has announced easing of air space restrictions in a bid to provide relief to the sector, under the fourth tranche of Atmanirbhar Bharat Abhiyan. The move is expected to bring about a benefit of Rs. 1000 crores for the aviation sector through reduced fuel usage, travel time, and more optimal use of air space. Further, the government also announced that the taxation on maintenance, repair and operations will be rationalized, in order to make India the hub for aircraft maintenance.
Featured Image: Government leasing out Airports


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Data: As Government Reduces LPG Cylinder Price, Challenge is to Increase Refills Under PMUY
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
September 5, 2023
The government recently reduced the price of non-subsidized domestic LPG cylinders by Rs. 200, the largest such reduction in more than five years. Data indicates that while the number of refills under PMUY has increased in 2022-23, it is still lower than in the earlier years. It remains to be seen whether the current reduction encourages increased refills.
The Government of India recently announced the reduction in the price of LPG cylinders. Effective from 30 August 2023, the price of 14.2 Kg LPG cylinders is reduced by Rs. 200 across the country.  In the case of the households under Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY), this reduction is in addition to the Rs. 200 subsidy on each cylinder. As per the information provided by the government in this announcement, this reduction will benefit around 31 crore domestic LPG consumers in the country, also including 9.6 crore beneficiaries under PMUY.
Furthermore, the government has also approved 75 lakh additional Ujjwala connections which would take the total number of PMUY beneficiaries to 10.35 crores.
Following this announcement, the Public Sector Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) reduced the price of 19 Kg commercial gas cylinders as well.  The Government stated that the reduction in the price of LPG cylinders is part of its efforts to ease the financial burden on the citizens. The proposed increase in the number of PMUY beneficiaries is also considered to be an effort towards the well-being of poorer households.
The announcement by the Government to reduce the prices of LPG has attracted varied responses. While some have applauded the move, others have raised apprehensions not only regarding the reduction of prices but also regarding the addition of new beneficiaries under the PMUY scheme. Our earlier analysis of the PMUY scheme can be read here.
The data relating to LPG prices & PMUY, used in this story are from the datasets available on Dataful.
Highest reduction in Domestic LPG price in more than 5 years
Domestic LPG: Prior to the government’s announcement of the reduction of the price of domestic LPG, the price of a 14 kg non-subsidized Domestic LPG cylinder in Delhi was Rs. 1103. With the reduction of Rs. 200, the price currently is Rs. 903.
With a similar reduction of Rs. 200 across the country, the prices in the other Metro cities i.e., Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai fell to Rs. 902.5, Rs. 929 and Rs. 918.5 respectively.  For the purpose of analysis, the prices in Delhi are being considered. This was the first drop in price since 01 April 2021, when it fell by Rs. 10. During this interval, the price increased multiple times, with a cumulative increase of Rs. 294. The previous reduction of price was in May 2020, when it reduced by Rs. 162.5. One must go back to 01 February 2018, for a reduction in price that is more than the latest reduction of Rs. 200. On 01 February 2018, the price of Domestic LPG fell by Rs. 206.5 in Delhi.
Commercial LPG: Compared to domestic LPG, the OMCs have changed the prices of commercial 19 kg LPG more frequently. The fall in price has also been comparatively more frequent.  As per the revisions by OMCs, the revised price of commercial cylinders in Delhi is Rs. 1522.3 per cylinder. It is a reduction of Rs. 157.5. A higher reduction than this was on 01 May 2023, when the price dropped by Rs. 171.5
Nearly 60 lakh LPG connections under PMUY during current Financial year
As indicated above, the government has announced 75 lakh additional PMUY connections which could take the number of connections under this scheme to 10.35 crores. As per government data, the number of beneficiaries under PMUY is currently around 9.6 crores.
In the first year of the inception of the scheme i.e., in 2016-17, more than two crore connections were provided. This fell to 1.55 crores in 2017-18. The highest number of connections were issued in 2018-19, with nearly 3.63 crore connections. In the year 2019-20, about 82.6 lakh connections were issued.
In 2021, Phase II of the scheme was launched to release 1 crore deposit-free LPG connections on a pan-India basis. During 2021-22, a total of 1 crore connections were issued to meet the target. In 2022, the scheme was extended to 60 lakh more beneficiaries.  As per the information available, the target is nearly met with 59.94 lakh beneficiaries added in 2022-23. The cumulative total of the number of beneficiaries under PMUY is over 9.6 crores. This is nearly 31% of the total LPG consumers in the country.
Around 1.55 crores took one refill during 2022-23
One of the concerns relating to the PMUY scheme was around the inability of the beneficiaries to go for a refill. In our earlier analysis of the PMUY scheme, we have highlighted that there is a fall in the average refills under PMUY.
As per the data available, the average number of refills under PMUY was 3.9 in 2016-17, which fell in the subsequent two years. In 2019-20, there was a slight increase to 3.01 which subsequently increased to 4.39 in 2020-21. This increase is attributed to the PMGKP scheme. However, as per the latest available data the average fell to 3.66 in 2021-22.
In terms of the total refills under PMUY, during 2021-22, there were a total of 31.47 crore refills, which is lower than 35.54 crore refills during 2020-21. This is the first time that there has been a yearly decrease in the total number of refills under PMUY.
Data also indicates that during 2022-23, around 1.55 crore consumers took only one refill. This is a fall compared to 2021-22, during which around 1.61 crores took one refill. However, there is an increase in the number of people who took two & three or more refills. During 2022-23, the number of consumers who took two refills increased to 1.49 crores compared to 1.48 crores in the earlier year. In the case of 3 or more refills, the number increased from 4.94 crores in 2021-22 to 5.35 crores in 2022-23.
Decrease in the price of LPG may encourage the use of LPG as envisioned under PMUY
As our earlier analysis and the data indicates, continuation in the usage of LPG under the PMUY scheme is a concern. Affordability is one of the prime reasons for the beneficiaries not going for refills.
In this context, the reduction in the price of the domestic LPG could encourage consumers who are beneficiaries under PMUY, as well as poorer households to refill and use LPG for their needs.  The price drop could also help other LPG consumers, especially in view of the current inflation.

created: September 5, 2023


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As GST collections pickup, traditional frontrunner states still contribute the most to GST collections
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
May 20, 2022
After a major fall in GST collections in 2020-21 on account of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a significant increase in 2021-22 by more than 20%. Almost all the states reported an increase in GST collections in 2021-22 compared to 2019-20 with the traditional frontrunner states of the West & South contributing the most.
The Goods and Service Tax (GST) is an indirect tax that has subsumed most of the earlier indirect taxes in India. Indirect Tax revenues form a key part of both the Union & State Government’s revenue of which GST has a major share.
GST is levied on the supply of goods and services and hence is intrinsically linked to the economic activity in the country. The COVID-19 pandemic-related containment measures like lockdowns, curfews, etc. have limited the scope of economic activity in the country. While there was an impetus for online commercial activity, the limitations on the overall economic activity in the country due to the pandemic cannot be denied.
In an earlier story in June 2021, we highlighted the impact of the pandemic on the Union Tax revenues including the fall in revenue through GST during the period.  Apart from the first wave in 2020, the country experienced a severe wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in mid-2021.
As the country is on the path of recovery, GST revenues provide a crucial data point on the state of the economy and its direction post-pandemic. The data for the story is based on the information available on the official GST Portal.  A dashboard on GST collections developed by Factly can be accessed here. It has data from the launch of GST in 2017.
Increase in Gross GST collection for 2021-22, but the collections fall short of estimates
In the financial year prior to the onset of the pandemic i.e., 2019-20, the Gross GST collection was Rs.12.11 lakh crores. Gross GST includes CGST, SGST, IGST & IGST on imports. While the early months of 2020-21 were impacted by the pandemic, there was an improvement in the later months of the year. Factly’s story on these trends can be read here. However, the overall GST collections for 2020-21 were lower than the previous year with only Rs. 11.32 lakh crores.
Since the launch of GST, revenues fell short of the Budget estimates, however, 2020-21 was the first instance when the revenue was lower than the previous year.
In terms of the Gross GST collections, there was a strong recovery in 2021-22, with total collections reaching Rs.14.76 lakh crores. This is 28% higher than the previous year and 23% more than 2019-20.
Out of the Rs. 14.76 lakh crores in 2021-22, CGST & Cess accounted for 3.68 lakh crores, SGST was Rs. 3.44 lakh crores, IGST was Rs. 3.85 lakh crores and IGST on imports at 3.79 lakh crores.  While the GST collections increased even compared to the pre-pandemic year, the numbers still fell short of estimates.
Among the different components of GST, IGST on imports. In the earlier year, IGST on imports increased to Rs.3.79 lakh crores in 2021-22 compared to 2.68 lakh crores in 2020-21.
Maharashtra, Gujarat, Karnataka & Tamil Nadu continue to have the highest Gross GST collection
The varying trends of Gross GST collection witnessed during the last three years have not affected the share of collection and the position of the States. Nearly all the states had a fall in the GST collection for 2020-21 compared to 2019-20 and had a recovery in 2021-22. The GST collection of almost all the states in 2021-22 is higher than the pre-pandemic year of 2019-20.
IGST on imports is excluded from the Gross GST collection of the States.
Here is a snapshot of the Gross GST collection of the States:
As was the case prior to the pandemic, the major contribution of GST is from two regions – the five southern states and the two western states of Maharashtra & Gujarat. The other major contributors of GST – Delhi, Haryana & West Bengal are home to large metros of New Delhi & Kolkata.
The pandemic and the later recovery have not influenced the status quo with the same traditional centres of GST collections maintaining their positions & contribution.
Near 50 % increase in Odisha’s GST collection compared to 2019-20
As noted earlier, the GST collection of nearly all the states fell during 2020-21 and recovered in 2021-22. A comparison of the GST collection between the pre-pandemic year of 2019-20 and 2021-22 provides insights into the extent of recovery as the effects of the pandemic are slowly waning.
The most significant improvement in GST collection is made by Odisha. In fact, it is one of the two large states whose GST collection did not fall even in 2020-21 while the other is Chhattisgarh. After a slight improvement in 2020-21, the GST collection of Odisha in 2021-22 increased by 49% compared to 2019-20. In 2019-20, Gross GST collections of the state were Rs. 29.6 thousand crores which increased to Rs. 44.3 thousand crores in 2021-22.  Jharkhand & Punjab are the other states which reported more than a 20% increase in GST collections in 2021-22 compared to 2019-20.
GST refunds could bring down the Net GST collections
GST refund allows the taxpayers to seek a refund of the excess amount paid by them compared to their GST liability. This implies that a part of the gross GST collections by the government would be lost in the form of refunds. Available data regarding refunds indicates that there is an increase in both the number of applications for GST refunds as well as the amount of refunds.
As per a response provided in Lok Sabha on 08 March 2021, as of February 2021, there were around 3.56 lakh refund applications during the year amounting to around Rs. 1 lakh crores.
In the year before, there were 3.42 applications filed on the GST portal amounting to a claim amount of Rs. 1.03 lakh crores.
It is the prerogative of the GST department to review these refund requests and process the valid requests. Hence there are chances that a portion of the refund claim amount is rejected. However, the trends in the claim amount does indicate that a considerable portion of the GST collected is returned in the form of refunds.
The wise information available is not for the year of the collection but the year of the filing of the refund request. As per available data, the total refund claim amount between 2017-18 and 2020-21 constitutes around 7% of the Gross GST collected during that period.
Continuing the trend, GST collections fall short of government estimates
Various factors could influence the trend in the GST collection. The number of Tax filings or those eligible to file GST does not show much variance compared to last year.  A case can also be made that the increase in the quantum of GST collections in part could be due to the increase in GST rates. It ought to be noted that various products attract different GST rates, and the government has over the period, made changes to GST rates.
A large number of GST rate changes were made by the 45th GST council meeting in September 2021.  While relief was provided to a few healthcare-related goods in view of the COVID-19 pandemic, there were other goods for which the GST rates were increased.
In addition, an increase in the volume of trade & economic activity also could have significantly contributed to the increase in GST collections. However, this increase in the GST collections does not match with the government estimates presented during the budget. While there is a month-on-month increase in GST collections being reported, this may not be adequate to match the estimates.
Featured Image: GST collections