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Consumption of Petroleum Products down in April & May 2021 but better than in 2020
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
June 18, 2021
The strict nation-wide lockdown in April & May 2020 had a severe impact on the economy and the consumption of petroleum products. Localized lockdown measures in April & May 2021 because of the COVID-19 second wave also affected the consumption of Petroleum products. However, the situation is better than in 2020.
In an earlier story, we analysed the consumption trend of Petroleum products and observed that the consumption fell by around 9% in 2020-21. This was also the first time since 1997-98 that the consumption was lower than the previous year. As per the information available on the website of Petroleum Planning & Analysis Cell (PPAC), a recovery during the last two quarters of 2020-21 in the consumption of Petroleum products was observed.
With their key role in enabling logistics, movement of people & goods, and being a key input to various industries, the trend in consumption of petroleum products is one of the indicators of the state of the economy. Accordingly, the low consumption during the initial months of 2020-21 was reflective of the slowdown in the economy caused by the stringent lockdown to contain the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. The increase in consumption in later months marked the phase-wise opening of the economy and the subsequent recovery.
Amidst this recovery process, the country was hit by the second wave of COVID-19 infections from the beginning of March 2021 resulting in a record number of new cases and forcing various states to again impose a variety of restrictions in April & May 2021. With the situation slowly improving, many states have begun relaxing the lockdown regulations. We look at the trends in consumption of Petroleum products during the first two months of the current financial year i.e., 2021-22 to understand the impact of the lockdown measures in various states.
Consumption of Petroleum Products in May’21 lowest for that month since 2015-16
The impact of the second wave of COVID-19 was evident in April 2021 itself. The Total consumption of Petroleum products during April 2021, was 170.3 Lakh Metric Tons (LMT) whereas it was 187.75 LMT in March 2021. However, the consumption during April 2021 was comparatively higher compared to April 2020 when there was a stringent nationwide lockdown.
The consumption fell further during May 2021 to 151.05 LMT. Unlike in the case of April 2021, the consumption during May 2021 is lower than the corresponding month in 2020.  In fact, the consumption during May 2021 is the least in the month of May in the last seven years. The consumption in May 2015 was 154.93 LMT.
Despite a decline in May’21, consumption of Petrol higher than April & May 2020
The consumption of Petrol during April 2021 fell to 23.86 LMT compared to the consumption in March 2021. The consumption fell further to 19.9 LMT during May 2021.
The trend in both these months is reflective of the lockdowns in various states due to the second wave and the resultant fall in economic activity. Despite this decline, the consumption of the Motor Spirit i.e., Petrol is higher than April & May of 2020.
During April 2021, the consumption was nearly 2.5 times that of April 2020. In fact, if the Petrol consumption during April 2021 is considered, it is only less than the consumption in April 2019 but more than any other year.
Even in the case of May 2021, the consumption is higher than the consumption of 17.7 LMT during May 2020. It must be noted that May 2020 was the beginning of the relaxation of various restrictions while it is only towards the end of May in 2021 that states began relaxing lockdown measures.
While the second wave does seem to have an impact on Petrol consumption, the fall is not to the extent witnessed in 2020. With most of the states opening up during June 2021, consumption is expected to improve in the coming months.
Except for 2020, consumption of Diesel during May’21 lowest in more than 10 years
As seen in the case of Petrol, even the consumption of Diesel witnessed a declining trend during April & May 2021 compared to March 2021. The consumption of Diesel was 72.24 LMT during March 2021 which fell to 66.83 LMT in April 2021 and fell further to 55.35 LMT in May 2021.
Despite this declining trend, consumption is still higher than in the same months of 2020. The consumption during April 2021 is more than twice the consumption during April 2020. However, the level of consumption during April 2021 is the lowest since 2016-17 for the same month.
The month-month consumption for May indicates that the consumption in 2021 is slightly higher than in 2020. However, except for 2020, the consumption of Diesel in May 2021 is the least in about 10 years since 2011-12.
Apart from the consumption for personal & commercial transport vehicles, Diesel is key to the movement of goods across the country as well as public transport. The trend in consumption of Diesel presents a better picture of the economic activity. Like in the case of Petrol, while there is a decline in Diesel consumption during the second wave, it is better than the situation in 2020.
Contrary to earlier trends, consumption of LPG reduced in May’21 compared to May’20
As highlighted in our earlier stories regarding the trend in consumption of Petroleum products, in contrast to Petrol & Diesel, the consumption of LPG has increased during 2020-21.  A month-on-month comparison for the months of 2020-21 indicates a higher consumption of LPG during the same months in the previous year.
After an increasing trend during the last four months of 2020-21, the consumption of LPG fell to 21.14 LMT during April 2021. However, this is still slightly higher than the consumption during April 2020.  While the consumption increased to 21.68 LMT during May 2021, it is still lower than the 22.94 LMT consumption in May 2020.
The dependency on Domestic LPG during the lockdown could be one of the reasons for the increase in LPG consumption in May 2021 compared to April 2021. At the same time, the higher consumption in May 2020 could be due to stricter lockdown implemented last year resulting in most people staying at home and cooking by themselves.
In the case of products like Petroleum Coke, Bitumen, Naphtha, etc. which have an industrial purpose, there is a decline in consumption during April & May 2021 compared to March 202. However, the consumption is higher than what was reported during the same months in 2020. What it means is, while there is an impact on the industrial & economic activity due to the second wave of COVID-19, the situation is better than during the same time last year.
Despite the fall in consumption, substantial increase in Excise duty Collections
While there is a fall in the consumption of Petroleum products during 2020-21, the revenue generated through excise duty on Petroleum products has increased. As per the information available with PPAC, the contribution of excise duties on petroleum products to the Central exchequer during the first 9-months of 2020-21 is Rs. 2.36 lakh crores, which is already Rs. 13,000 crores are more than the Rs. 2.23 lakh crores collection during the entire year of 2019-20.
The hike in Excise duty on Petrol & Diesel by the Central Government during May 2020 is the reason for the higher collections.  In an earlier story, based on the information available with the Controller General of Accounts (CGA), we observed that in contrast to the trends in Direct Tax-revenue collection, the revenue from Excise duties has increased in 2020-21. The increase in the revenue through Excise duties on Petroleum products is a key contributor to this increase. As of date, only the information of the first 9 months of 2020-21, is available with PPAC. Based on the provisional figures for overall Excise duties collections as per CGA, it can be ascertained that the contribution of excise duties on petroleum products to the Central exchequer in 2020-21 could be much higher than in 2019-20.
The revenue through Excise duties in April’21 is Rs. 154 crores which are higher than the collections in April 2020. Though the collection in April 2021 is less than in March 2021, this has been a general trend where-in the collection during the first month of the financial year is usually lower.
Featured Image: Consumption of Petroleum Products


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Data: Conviction Rate of economic offences registered under IPC at 29.4% in 2021 - FACTLY
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
September 30, 2022
NCRB’s Crime in India report provides data related to cases registered under various sections of the IPC that can be broadly categorized as economic offences. The report also provides data of cases registered under various finance related special & local laws. Data from the 2021 report indicates that the Conviction Rate of economic offences registered under IPC at 29.4% in 2021, much less than the overall conviction rate in IPC related offences.
Off late, central agencies like the Income Tax Department, Enforcement Directorate have been conducting multiple raids on allegations of money laundering, tax evasion and other economic offences. These economic offences apart from resulting in pecuniary losses for individuals and the state, also affect the economy. Counterfeiting currency, financial scams, frauds, money laundering and hawala transactions are some of the serious economic offences.
In the National Crime Record Bureau’s (NCRB) Crime in India (CII) report, data pertaining to cases of economic offences is provided. Data pertains to only those cases where FIRs are filed with the police. These include cases booked under both Indian Penal Code (IPC) and Special Local Laws (SLL). In this story, we look at the cases of economic offences as provided in the CII report.
Economic crimes under SLL Acts are registered under 6 legislations
Among Special and Local Laws (SLL) crimes, the report provides data on the cases registered under finance related and economic legislations that regulate financial transactions or areas involving large sums of money and which are prone to scams/frauds. These are.
Economic crimes registered under SLL has dropped by 32% since 2018
The total number of cases registered under various finance related SLL Acts mentioned above is the lowest in 2021 since 2017. The number has dropped by nearly 32% since 2018.
Majority of the cases registered are under the Mines and Minerals Development and Regulation Act, 1957. Under this act, the mining of minerals like stone, gravel, precious stones, coal, etc. is regulated by the central government, and illegal mining of these minerals is liable for punishment. More than 80% of the SLL economic crimes were registered under this Act in 2017 which has gradually dropped below 70% in 2021. On the other hand, share of cases under The Lotteries Act,1998 has increased from 13% in 2017 to 25% in 2021. A total of 182 cases registered under the Chit Funds Act, 1982 in 2017 which has dropped to below 50 in 2020 and 2021. Cases registered under the Prevention of Corruption Act had dropped to below 1000 in 2020, the year of pandemic and has increased again by 5% in 2021.
Economic offences under IPC at 1.74 lakh in 2021, highest in the decade
In a chapter dedicated to economic offences in the CII report, cases of economic offences booked under the IPC are also provided. According to the latest report, the number of cases registered has increased from 1.14 lakh cases in 2012 to an all-time high of 1.74 lakh cases in 2021, registering an increase by 52% in ten years. Since the beginning of the decade, the cases registered have been on the rise, except in 2016 when it witnessed a small dip, and again in 2020, the pandemic year. In 2020, the cases dropped to 1.46 lakh from 1.66 lakh in 2019. Compared to 2020, the total number of cases of economic offences increased by 19.4%, overtaking the pre-pandemic levels. On the other hand, the rate of total economic offences has also increased from 9.43 per lakh population to 12.7 per lakh population in 2021. In 2021, cases of economic offences accounted for 4.75% of all IPC crimes.
Economic offences under IPC are categorized into 3 major heads
The NCRB report categorizes the economic offences booked under the IPC in three major heads. These are criminal breach of trust; forgery, cheating & fraud; and counterfeiting. Sections 406 to 409 of IPC cover ‘criminal breach of trust’, Sections 231-243, 255 & 489A to 489E IPC cover ‘counterfeiting’ and Sections 420, 465, 468, 471, 231-243, 255 and 489A to 489E IPC cover Forgery, Cheating & Fraud’. Since 2017, the NCRB report combined all the economic offences related to Forgery, Cheating & Fraud under one head.
Cases of forgery, cheating, and fraud account for 87% of the cases in 2021
Cases of forgery, cheating and fraud (FCF) account for lion’s share of cases under economic offences with more than 87% of the cases in 2020 and 2021, up from 85% in 2016. Over 1.52 lakh cases of FCF were registered in 2021, more than the total number of cases of economic offences registered in 2020. Cases of ‘Criminal Breach of Trust’ contributed to around 13% of the economic offences in 2017 and 2018, which dropped to 12.2% in 2021. Cases of counterfeiting have always accounted for less than 1% of the cases and dropped from 0.8% in 2017 and 2018 to 0.4% in 2021.
55% of the cases involved loss of property in 2021 and about 87.6% involved less than 10 lakh rupees
Misappropriation or loss in property was reported in about 55% of the cases, which is close to 96,000 cases in 2021 out of the total 1.74 lakh cases. In about half of these cases, the misappropriation or loss in property was worth less than 1 lakh rupees and in more than one-third of the cases, the loss was between 1 lakh to 10 lakh rupees. Not just in 2021, but since 2017, between 83 to 86% of the cases have reported a loss between 1 lakh to 10 lakh rupees. In 2021, close to 12% of the cases involved losses worth 10 lakh to 50 lakh rupees, compared to 11% in 2017.
The trends of the last five years are also on similar lines, across the categories, except for misappropriation amounts of 50-100 crore rupees reported in 2019. There were 353 such cases in 2019 compared to 35 or fewer cases reported in other years. In terms of number of cases involving a loss of more than 10 crore rupees, 2021 the lowest number of such cases (230) in the last five years was reported in 2021. However, 26 cases involved more than 100 crore rupees worth loss in 2021, highest in the period considered.
High pendency and poor conviction rate
At the end of 2021, the pendency rate for economic offences under IPC was 55.1% for the police and 96.6% for the courts. On the other hand, the conviction rate was only 29.4%. That is, less 3 out of 10 such cases result in conviction. This is much less than the overall IPC related cases conviction rate of 57% in 2021.
In the subsequent story, we will look at the trends in these cases registered across states, and the trends in court and police disposal of these cases.

source: news-factly

created: September 30, 2022

license: Creative Commons - Attribution - https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

author: Sai Krishna Muthyanolla


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Data: Courts disposed 41% fewer cases in 2020 compared to 2019
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
October 2, 2021
Like with every other sector, the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted the working of the courts in the year 2020. The impact was more pronounced in lower courts, where facilities to conduct virtual hearings were also not adequate. Data from the NCRB’s CII report for 2020 indicates that courts disposed 16.4 lakh cases in 2020 (both IPC & SLL crimes) compared to 28 lakh cases disposed in 2019.
COVID-19 severely hampered the functioning of judicial systems around the globe. In India, several steps were taken to ensure the safety of the lawyers, litigants and the general visiting public including fewer physical hearings, adjustment of operations, and closure of courts. But these measures meant that the normal functioning of the courts was affected and hence reducing the number of cases disposed in 2020.
India’s criminal justice system is known for its acute backlog and pendency crisis. Despite an increasing trend in the disposal of cases in most years, the pendency of cases has increased due to the number of new cases outpacing the number of disposed cases. The data on pending investigations and trials published by the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) has revealed an increasing trend in the backlog or the pendency rate with India’s courts and police. In addition to NCRB, the National Judicial Data Grid also highlights the pendency of cases in high courts, district and taluka courts of the country.
Reportedly, since the COVID-19 pandemic, the disposal rates of several courts around the country dipped further. In this story we focus on the impact of the pandemic on trends in court disposal of cases in India in the year 2020, taking a cue from Crime in India Reports released by NCRB over the years, the latest one being released recently for the year 2020.
Courts reduced operations and adopted virtual mode amidst COVID-19
The journey of e-Governance initiatives in court administration started mainly in the mid-1990s and was further enhanced after the e-Courts Project was launched as a part of the National e-Governance Plan (NeGP) in 2006. However, the sudden and unexpected advent of the COVID-19 crisis provided a great fillip in bringing about a rapid transformation in the manner of court administration in the country.
On 13 March 2020, the Supreme Court issued a notification declaring that the Court will function at a reduced capacity and suspended physical hearings since the latter half of March 2020 in view of the advisories issued by the Government of India and the World Health Organization (WHO) against mass public gatherings. The Court pruned its operations at two levels. First, the Court was now only taking up ‘urgent matters’. Second, entry to the courtroom is restricted to a select group of people.
Soon thereafter, on 14 March 2020, the apex court issued a slew of measures meant to limit crowding of the Courts. For instance, lawyers and litigants can request the Registry to not list their matters till such time the pandemic-related restrictions are eased. At the same time, the Supreme Court encouraged the electronic filing of documents and participation in proceedings via videoconferencing. Nevertheless, no official notification has been issued in this regard to date.
On 22 March 2020, the Court decided to reduce its functioning even further. On the same day, the Court also instituted a bench to hear urgent matters. These decisions come amid the deployment of more stringent measures by the executive to tackle COVID-19.
On 06 April 2020, the Supreme Court granted legal sanctity to video conference under Article 142 of the Indian Constitution. High Courts were also given the authority to work out detailed modalities suitable for adopting video conferencing technologies.
Since mid-March 2020, the Indian courts were reportedly operating at a reduced capacity, to prevent the spread of the virus. It was only on 30 August 2020, that the Supreme Court decided to open up its premises for limited physical hearings, on an experimental basis. In a brief two-page notification the Court required counsels and clerks seeking physical hearings to obtain a special hearing pass and follow COVID-19 specific sanitary and health guidelines.
On 06 March 2021, the Supreme Court announced that it would begin hybrid physical hearings. The current functioning of Courts has returned to resume physical hearings for some cases, while also maintaining hybrid and virtual forms of judicial administration.
All these measures at the Supreme Court concerned High Courts and the lower courts meant that their functioning was severely affected. The worst affected of all were the lower courts where adequate facilities for video conferencing are not on par.
Quantum of cases disposed by the courts declines significantly during COVID-19
Taking a cue from the NCRB Crime in India Reports, we looked at the disposal of cases by the courts for select IPC (Indian Penal Code) crimes over the last few years.
In 2019, a total of 14.04 lakh cases registered under the IPC were disposed by the various courts. This number fell to 8.65 lakh in 2020, a reduction of 38%. In the case of SLL (Special & Local Laws) crimes, the court disposal fell from 13.95 lakh in 2019 to 7.82 lakh in 2020, a reduction of 44%. The pendency also increased from 88.9% in 2019 to 93.8% in 2020, in the case of IPC crimes. On the other hand, the pendency also increased from 83.3% in 2019 to 91.3% in 2020, in the case of SLL crimes. Overall, the disposal decreased by 41%.
The fall in disposal was witnessed across all major crimes
For the selected major crimes, the trend in court disposal of cases has been relatively stable over the past few years. However, for the year 2020, the decline in court disposal of cases has been significant than in previous years.
For instance, for theft cases, the number of cases disposed by the courts has reduced each year by a small margin, except for 2020 – where it declined from 102,027 disposed cases in 2019 to 49,241 disposed cases in 2020, a drop of more than 50%.
Similarly, with crimes like murder, hit and run, rape, kidnapping and others, the quantum of cases disposed during 2020 is significantly lower than the previous year (2019).
In the case of murder, the disposal numbers came down from 17,062 in 2019 to 10,492 in 2020 – while during the previous years, the decline was relatively smaller.
In the case of hit & run cases as well, the disposal numbers came down from 18,002 in 2019 to 10,368 in 2020 – in contrast with relatively stable trends in the past years.
Crimes like rape, kidnapping and abduction also display a similar pattern. For rape cases, the disposal numbers came down from 17,109 in 2019 to 9,898 in 2020. For kidnapping and abduction cases, the disposal numbers came down from 16,625 in 2019 to 9,785 in 2020.
For cases of sexual harassment, the disposal numbers almost halved from 8,627 in 2019 to 4,441 in 2020. In the case of dowry deaths, the disposal came down from 3,589 in 2019 to 2,103 in 2020. The only exception to this trend was the cases related to human trafficking where 311 cases were disposed in 2020 by the courts compared to 316 in 2019.
Pendency rate increases significantly in 2020, as compared to previous years
In the following chart, we look at the pendency percentage of select IPC (Indian Penal Code) crimes over the last few years.
For the selected major crimes, the trends in pendency rate have been relatively stable or increasing marginally over the past few years. For most of the important crimes, the pendency rate was hovering around the 90% mark for a few years now. However, for the year 2020, the rise in pendency rate is more significant than the previous years.
For theft cases, the pendency rate increased from 90.9% to 92.4% in 3 years (1 percentage point increase between 2017 to 2019), however, it increased by almost 3 percentage points from 92.4% in 2019 to 95.5% in 2020.
For hit and run cases, the pendency percentage increased from 87.9% to 90.2% in 3 years (2 percentage point increase between 2017 to 2019), however, it increased by almost 4 percentage points from 90.2% in 2019 to 94.7% in 2020.
For dowry death cases, the pendency percentage increased from 90.6% to 92.8% in 3 years (2 percentage point increase between 2017 to 2019), however, it increased by almost 4 percentage points from 92.8% in 2019 to 96% in 2020.
For cases of sexual harassment, the pendency percentage increased from 89.1% to 90.7% in 3 years (2 percentage point increase between 2017 to 2019), however, it increased by almost 5 percentage points from 90.7% in 2019 to 95.5% in 2020.
Crimes like rape, kidnapping and abduction also display a similar pattern. For instance, the pendency rate between 2019 and 2020 increased from 93.2% to 96.3% for kidnapping and abduction, 89.5% to 94.2% for rape, and so on.
COVID-19 exacerbated an already dismal situation
The trends in court disposal of major IPC crimes have not been encouraging over the years in themselves with over 90% pendency. However, the quantum of disposal fell further down in 2020, more swiftly than the previous years. In a similar fashion, the rate of pendency trends was registering small increases or relative stability over the past few years. However, in 2020, the rate of pendency increased by higher percentage points as compared to previous years.
The onset of COVID-19 caused a variety of hindrances that resulted in the reduced capacity of courts to dispose cases effectively in 2020, owing to fewer physical hearings, adjustment of operations, and closure of courts. While the courts have quickly virtual modes to administer justice, the effectiveness of virtual and hybrid modes of judicial administration in reducing pendency and increasing the quantum of case disposal is yet to be seen. The data for the year 2021 could be a good indicator of where things would go in the hybrid mode and its efficacy. One of the earlier stories highlights in detail the opportunities and challenges associated with the virtual court proceedings in the Indian context.

created: October 2, 2021


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Data: COVID-19 cases in India in Numbers
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
April 29, 2020
The number of COVID-19 cases in India has crossed 30 thousand. While the number of new cases has been increasing on a day-to-day basis, the doubling rate of cases has slowed down. Here is a brief summary of the trend of COVID-19 cases in India so far in terms of numbers.
The first COVID-19 positive case in India was reported on 30 January 2020, in Kerala. The patient was a student who has returned from Wuhan, China. On 15 March 2020 i.e. after one and a half month, the total number of positive cases crossed 100.
By the end of March, India had more than 1000 COVID-19 positive cases. Prior to this, a Nationwide lockdown was announced on 24 March 2020, which was extended to 03 May 2020, in order to contain the spread of COVID-19 cases.
Ason 28 April 2020, there are more than 29 thousand positive cases reported inthe country with more than 21 thousand active cases. The number of tests beingconducted was ramped up over the period of time and till date, approximately7.16 lakh samples were tested for COVID-19.
Theopinion is divided, and the debate is ongoing on the effectiveness ofimplementing the lockdown and the various measures taken by the central andstate governments to contain the spread. In this context, we take a look at thenumbers relating to COVID-19 in India over the period of time and analyse thetrends. The data provided by Ministry
of Health & Family Welfare (MOHFW) isconsidered for this story.
More
than 20-fold increase in the number of positive cases in the month of April 2020
As highlighted earlier, the first case in India was reported on 30January 2020. Only 2 other new cases were detected in the month of February.  The first significant increase in the number of positive cases was on 10 March when 41 new cases were reported.
The initial set of cases were reported in the states of Kerala, Maharashtra, Delhi and Telangana. By the time the national lockdown was announced on 24 March 2020, the total number of cases crossed 500. After the first week of lockdown i.e. by the end of March, the total number of cases more than doubled with around 1350 positive cases.
The month of April saw an exponential rise in the number of cases. As on the morning of 28 April, a total of 29,435 positive cases are reported i.e. the number of cases has increased by more than 20 times compared to the number of cases at the beginning of the month.
To ensure consistency, the numbers used here are taken from the data reported on the MOHFW website every morning.
More
than 1000 new cases were reported daily in the last 10 days
The first significant jump in the number of new cases was on 10 March with 41 new cases. It was followed by a 10-day period of relatively fewer new cases. However,  a gradual increase in numbers was observed from 21 March. On 24 March, for the first time, 100 new cases in a day were reported.
Since the beginning of April, the daily number of new cases reached the 3-digit mark with a gradual increase on most of the ensuing days. More than 500 new cases in a day first happened on 04 April, when 619 new cases were reported. More than 1000 new cases in a single day were reported for the first time on 11 April (1035 cases). This was followed by a few days of comparatively fewer new cases and inconsistency in the number of new cases.
However,from 19 April, more than 1000 new cases have been reported each day. So far,the highest number of new cases in a single day was on 26 April when 1,990 newcases were reported.
Decrease
in the share of Active cases over time
While the total number of COVD-19 positive cases indicate the extent of the spread of disease, the number of active cases is a sign of the efforts to be put in by the administration and the health care support system.
One of the main intentions behind imposing a lockdown is to reduce the number of new cases and contain the spread. This was done so as to reduce the pressure on the healthcare support system to treat active cases.
As on 28 April 2020, there are a total of 21,632 active cases as per the information provided by MOHFW. At the beginning of April, there were less than 1000 active cases across the country, i.e. as in the case of total positive cases, even the active cases have grown more than 20-fold during the month of April.
While the number of active cases has seen an increase, their share in the total number of cases reported as on date shows a declining trend.  During the first week of April, i.e. the time when the total number of positive cases have started to increase substantially, the percentage of active cases among the total positive cases hovered around 90s and the higher 80s. However, from the second week, the share of active cases started to taper down to the lower 80s by the end of the third week of April.
The numbers on 21 April suggest that the share of active cases fell to less than 80%. As on the morning of 28 April, the total number of active cases is 72% of the total COVID-19 positive cases that have been detected so far in India.  The fall in the share of active cases despite the increase in the new cases is due to the number of closed cases.  The cases are closed due to two reasons, either the person recovers or is dead.
23%
of the total Covid-19 positive cases cured till date
As on 28 April 2020, a total of 6869 patients who were COVID-19 positive were cured and discharged from the hospitals. Recovery of the patients is a key indicator that helps us understand the nature of the virus as well as the treatment protocol being followed in the hospitals.
The first instance of patients being cured was reported on 13 March 2020, when 3 cases were recorded as recovered. On 11 April, for the first time, more than 100 patients were reported to be discharged in a day. A total of 139 patients were discharged on that day.  26 April 2020 has seen the highest number of patients discharged in a day with 741. Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Delhi and Rajasthan are among the states that have recorded higher number of recovered patients (also because of the higher number of positives) with Kerala on the top when it comes to the proportion of cured patients among the positive cases.
The
fatality rate of COVID-19 cases in India is around 3%
Sofar, the highest number of deaths in a day was reported on 28 April 2020 when62 deaths were reported in a single day. In total, as per the details providedby MOHFW on 28 April, a total of 934 deaths of COVID-19  patients were reported in India. This isapproximately 3% of the total positive cases in India.
Thefirst death due to COVID-19 was reported on 13 March 2020. While Maharashtra reportedthe highest number of deaths, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh have a higher fatalityrate compared to others. Barring 4 days, every other day in April have reporteddeaths in double digits. The second half of April has seen an increase in thenumber of deaths per day.
Number
of Samples Tested increased 25 times within the last one month
Models followed in South Korea and New Zealand reflect the importance of proactive testing to identify the cases of COVID-19.  There is criticism from multiple quarters that the testing rates in India are very low, and that there is a possibility of a greater incidence of the infection than what is being actually detected. Factly has earlier written on the strategies followed by different countries across the world. The Government of India has put in place the testing strategy to be followed in India.
Prior to April, the total number of tests conducted was on the lower side. As per the available data, there were only 27,688 samples were tested as on 27 March 2020. Since then, the number of samples tested has exponentially increased. As on 28 April 2020,  more than 7.16 lakh samples were tested. This is around 519 samples per million population.
Although this is a substantial improvement compared to the situation in March, it is still lower than many of the countries. (Note : Data on samples tested was not available on MOHFW between 28-03-2020 and 07-04-2020).
Slowdown
in the doubling rate of COVID-19 positive cases
The spread of COVID-19 across the globe is marked by the rapid rate of its spread. The spike in the number of cases in Italy and Spain and the rapid increase in the humongous numbers currently being reported out of the USA are examples of the rapid spread.
While the number of new positive cases gives an idea of the increase in the number of cases, there are other metrics being used by experts around the world to understand the spread of disease. One such is the doubling rate. In simpler terms, it refers to the time taken for the number of cases to double. If the time taken for the numbers to double is less, it indicates the situation is more prone to an outbreak, whereas more time taken is an indication of the slowdown of the spread.
While the actual number of cases may skew the analysis (especially in case of lower numbers), the nature of the spread of contagious disease is validated based on the doubling rates.
For this analysis, the day of about 100 cases is taken as the reference point to calculate doubling rates. As on 15 March, a total of 93 cases were reported in India. It took 5 days for these numbers to double i.e. as on 20 March there were 195 cases.
The next doubling was quicker as it happened in just 3 days, which reduced to about 4 days to reach approximately 800 cases. The next three stages of doubling took 4,4, and 5 days respectively.
Therate of doubling further slowed down when the cases doubled from 6,400 to 12000odd in 6 days. The next doubling from 12,800 cases to around more than 25,000took more than 9 days.  It does seem thatthe doubling rate has decreased which means the number of days needed for thecases to double has increased. This could be because of the extended lockdownacross the country.
Increasing
numbers with a slower doubling rate present an unclear picture
Thetrajectory of COVID-19 in India is still unclear. While some expect lakhs ofcases in the months to come, others expect a slowdown. The direction will beclear when the lockdown restrictions are lifted.
Thoughthe number of new cases has gradually increased over the past couple of weeks,the doubling rate has slowed down. Hence the trajectory remains unpredictable.
Similarly,the effectiveness of the lockdown can be gauged only when the lockdown islifted and the number of new cases during those times is assessed. It is alsopossible that the higher numbers during April are due to the increase intesting capacity.
Furthermore, the scenario is not even across the country. Few states like Kerala have been fairly successful at containing the spread despite high numbers early on. States like Maharashtra and Rajasthan are among the states which in spite of the higher positive cases are also recording higher recovery rates. Meanwhile, the numbers are starting to increase in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh & Uttar Pradesh which are among the most populous states of India.
Featured Image: COVID-19 cases in India


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COVID-19 delays Space Missions as capital expenditure of Department of Space reduced significantly in 2020-21
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
February 28, 2022
India had earlier planned the ‘Gaganyaan’ mission to be achieved by 2022, the 75th anniversary of India’s Independence. However, due to COVID-19, this mission and many other space missions have been delayed. This is also evident in the reduced expenditure of the Department of Space (DoS), particularly the capital expenditure.
In a written reply to a question in the Rajya Sabha in February 2022, the Union government said that the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) launched a total of 129 satellites of Indian origin and 342 foreign satellites belonging to 36 countries, since 1975.
With the setting up of the Indian National Committee for Space Research (INCOSPAR) in 1962, Space related activities in the country were initiated. The ISRO was established in 1969. With the impetus for space research over the years, India is now among the handful of countries that have achieved different milestones in space exploration. In the same response, the government stated that India currently has 53 operational satellites in space – 21 being communication satellites, 8 related to Navigation, 21 Earth Observation satellites and 3 science satellites.
These satellites provide services to various sectors including – broadcasting, mobile communication, education, agriculture, etc. underlining the importance of space operations.
Hence, the allocation of resources towards the Space Programme & various space-related activities are important. In June 1972, the Space Commission, and the Department of Space (DoS) were constituted by the Government of India and ISRO was brought under DoS in September 1972.
In this story, we look at the recent trends in budget allocation towards the Department of Space.
Actual Expenditure of DoS fell by 27% in the pandemic year of 2020-21
In an earlier story, we highlighted that the actual expenditure towards the various Departments under the Ministry of Science & Technology reduced in 2020-21 compared to 2019-20.  The impact of the pandemic is visible even in the case of the Department of Space (DoS). The Budget estimate for 2020-21 before the onset of the pandemic was Rs. 13.48 thousand crores, higher than the budget estimates for 2019-20. With the onset of the pandemic, the estimates were revised & reduced to Rs. 9.5 thousand crores. The trends in earlier years indicate that the revised Estimates and the actual expenditure are usually higher than the budget estimates.
The actual expenditure of DoS in 2020-21 was Rs. 9.47 thousand crores, around 27% lower than the Rs. 13.02 thousand crores spent in 2019-20. This was only about 70% of the budget estimates for 2020-21.
The budget estimates for 2021-22 were increased to Rs.13.95 thousand crores, but the revised estimates reduced the amount to Rs. 12.64 thousand crores.  In contrast to the trend, the budget estimates for 2022-23 at Rs. 13.7 thousand crores are lower than the budget estimates for 2021-22.
Actual Capital Expenditure was around 60% of the budget estimates for 2020-21
As highlighted, the actual expenditure of DoS was only 70% of the budget estimates for 2020-21.  Both the revenue expenditure and the capital expenditure of DoS decreased during the pandemic hit 2020-21. However, the major reduction was in the case of capital expenditure.
In 2020-21, the actual capital expenditure was reduced to Rs. 4.63 thousand crores compared to the budget estimates of Rs. 7.78 thousand crores. On the other hand, the actual revenue expenditure was Rs. 4.84 thousand crores compared to the budget estimates of Rs. 5.7 thousand crores. Overall, while the capital expenditure in 2020-21 for the DoS was only about 60% of the budget estimates, the revenue expenditure was more than 80% of the budget estimates.
Over the years, the growth in capital expenditure was higher compared to the revenue expenditure, which is indicative of increased spending towards initiatives like research & building infrastructure.  In 2019-20, the actual capital expenditure was Rs. 7.18 thousand crores, 30% higher than 2018-19. This push towards higher capital expenditure was halted in 2020-21, the pandemic year.
In 2021-22, the budget estimates for capital expenditure of DoS were higher at Rs. 8.29 thousand crores. However, the estimates have now been revised to Rs. 6.92 thousand crores while there is no change in the estimates for revenue expenditure. What is evident is that the pandemic has been affecting plans related to research, infrastructure, etc. while revenue expenditure like establishment expenses, salaries, etc. has not been reduced.
Capital Outlay on Space Research reduced by 55 % in 2020-21
The actual revenue expenditure incurred towards Space Research in 2020-21 was Rs. 4.81 thousand crores compared to Rs. 5.78 thousand crores in 2019-20. However, the major fall was in the case of capital outlay on Space research, which was reduced from Rs. 7.18 thousand crores in 2019-20 to Actual spent of Rs. 4.66 thousand crores in 2020-21.
Impact of the pandemic on Space Missions & Initiatives.
The actual expenditure for 2020-21 indicates a substantial fall in the expenditure compared to the estimates. Even the revised estimates for 2021-22 also indicate a fall in the expenditure incurred by the DoS, when compared to the budget estimates. As highlighted earlier, the reduction was mainly for the capital expenditure indicating an impact on the planned activities & initiatives for research, missions, etc.
This sentiment was shared in Chairman, Space commission’s new year message –2022, where he stated that there were comparatively fewer space launches in the year. As per the Department’s Annual Report 2020-21, there were 11 space missions in 2019-20 while in 2020-21, four were completed and another 5 were expected to be completed by end of March 2021. For 2021-22, the estimates are for 10 project missions.
In the new year message, it is also reported the government was able to successfully implement reforms in the space sector.  Two of the initiatives in this direction were the establishment of the Indian National Space Promotion and Authorization Centre (IN-SPACe) and New Space India Limited (NSIL).
One of the Missions highlighted for 2021-22 in the Annual report was ‘Gaganyaan’, part of which is the first unmanned mission by India. The initial plan was to achieve the mission by 2022, before the 75anniversary of India’s Independence. However, the government has multiple times mentioned that the program is slightly delayed due to COVID-19, but preparations are on to achieve the mission by 2023.
The overall Gaganyaan project has completed the design phase and entered the testing phase.  There are three new Space science missions in the pipeline – (a) DISHA (b) Mission to Venus & (c) TRISHNA. While already launched missions of Chandrayan-2, Mars Orbiter Mission and Astrosat are showing results, design & testing of Chandrayan-3, targeted to be launched in the middle of 2023 are also underway.
The annual report of the department also provided details of the progress made in various initiatives.
ISRO has also contributed towards mitigating the COVID-19 pandemic in the country by providing design solutions for medical equipment & supplies, especially ventilators & oxygen cylinders. One hopes that the expenditure of DoS is back to normal in 2021-22.

created: February 28, 2022


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Data: COVID-19 Positivity Rate decreases ever so slightly as concerns remain
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
August 31, 2020
India has significantly increased its testing in the last few months. The average number of daily tests has now reached around 9 lakh tests a day. In the last few weeks, the positivity rate has also shown a slightly decreasing trend. While the numbers from some states look encouraging, concerns remain in few other states.
India is currently ranked third among the countries with the highest number of total COVID-19 positive cases. In terms of daily numbers, India currently reports the highest number of cases with more than 75 thousand positive cases being reported daily for the past few days.
A substantial increase in the number of tests is cited as one of the reasons for increase in the number of cases.  However, there are different views on the testing strategy being followed in the country. One argument is that not enough testing is being done. The lower number of ‘tests per million’ compared to few other countries is being cited to support this argument. The other argument is that India is following a more targeted approach in view of the huge population.
Other indicators like ‘Recovery rates’, ‘Case Fatality Rate’ etc. are also being used to understand the trajectory & ascertain the COVID-19 situation in the country. Along with these indicators,  ‘Positivity Rate’ is also an important indicator that can help in understanding the trajectory of the pandemic. In this story, we look at the trends in the ‘Positivity Rate’ at a national level over a period of time and also analyse the trends in few of the states reporting higher number of COVID-19 cases.
More than 4 crore COVID-19 samples tested so far
By 31 July 2020, a total of 1.88 crore samples were tested in India. As per the data provided by the government, around 6.42 lakh tests conducted on that day, it was also the highest until that point of time.  Around that time,  the average the number of tests being conducted daily was in the range of 4-5 lakh. Subsequently, the testing increased substantially, and the average number of daily tests increased to around 6-7 lakhs during the first half of August’2020. The total number of tests conducted in a single day crossed 10 lakhs (a million) for the first time on 22 August 2020, when 10.23 lakh tests were conducted.
Currently, the number of tests being conducted range between 8-9 lakhs a day. This increase in August means that the total number of tests conducted in India has crossed 4 crores which is more than twice the number of tests at the beginning of August. As per the data released by ICMR on 30 August 2020, the highest number of tests were conducted on 29 August when 10.55 lakh tests were conducted across the country.
India has so far conducted the second highest number of tests in the world, behind only the USA which conduced more than 8 crore tests. However, because of the large population, the number of tests per million population in India is still behind many other countries.
COVID-19 positive cases have more than doubled in the last one month
India currently reports the daily highest number of COVID-19 positive cases across the world.  For the past four days, more than 75 thousand cases are being reported in the country every day. On 30 August 2020, India breached the 35 lakh positive cases mark, and also recorded the highest single day positive cases with more than 78 thousand cases.
The total number of cases is more than double of the number of cases at the beginning of August 2020  when the number was around  16.95 lakhs on 01 August.  The daily average number of COVID-19 positive cases hovered around mid-50 thousand mark at the beginning of the month. For most part of August,  the number of daily cases was in the range of 60 thousand, which increased to around 70 thousand in the past few days. The doubling rate has also slowed down a bit and it is now around 28 days. The cumulative number of cases nearly tripled during July, compared to the two-fold increase in August. However, this is bound to slow down further as we reach higher daily numbers.
‘Positivity rate’ shows a downward trend
Positivity rate is the number of COVID-19 positive cases detected for every 100 samples tested.
The current Positivity rate in India is 8.54%.  It peaked on 10 August 2020 with 9.01% and since then there has been a downward trend in the positivity rate. The current rate is back to the levels of late July, where in it was 8.54% on 27July 2020.
Since the beginning of May, the positivity rate has progressively increased. The rate increased by 2 percentage points in July compared to an increase by one percent in May 2020. For the first time in the past four months, the positivity rate has shown signs of decrease in August.
The government has on multiple occasions stated that the goal is to bring down the positivity rate to 5%. A lower positivity rate indicates that the testing numbers have improved and that the population may be growing resistant to the infection.
USA, which has the highest number of COVID-19 positive cases and has also conducted the highest number of tests has a Positivity rate of 7.56%. Among the top-10 countries with the highest number of COVID-19 positive cases, Russia and Spain have better positivity rate with 2.7% and 5.3% respectively. Same is the case with other European countries, with U.K, Germany, Italy and France reporting Positivity rates of – 2.1%, 2.2%, 3.1% and 4.4% respectively.
Comparatively, the positivity rates are higher in Latin American countries. Brazil, which currently has the second highest number of positive cases in the world has a positivity rate of 26.8%. Similarly, Peru and Mexico have positivity rate of 20.2% and 44.3% respectively. South Africa, which has the 6 highest number of cases has positivity rate of 17%.
Neighbouring countries of Pakistan and Bangladesh have positivity rates of 11.4% and 20.2%.
While the positivity rate could be an indicator of the extent of the pandemic spread in the country, the date also depends on the testing strategies being followed.
USA and European countries have conducted extensive testing while few of the other lower-middle income countries seem to have followed targeted testing strategy and hence a higher positivity rate.
Increasing trend of Positivity Rate in Andhra, Karnataka & West Bengal
The trend of positivity rate among the states has been varied. The positivity rate for Maharashtra has not varied much over the past couple of months. Maharashtra has the highest number of cases, while the number of samples tested  is the third highest in the country, behind Uttar Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
The data for stagewise tests is picked from information available on COVID19india.org, who consolidated information from the  daily bulletins of the concerned state governments.
Declining trend in ‘Positivity Rate’ could point to a decline in the growth of infection
The decreasing trend in the average positivity rate at the national level could indicate a decline in the growth of the COVID-19 spread. However, it is still too early to come to such a conclusion since the trends are vastly different across states and the testing numbers aren’t uniform across the country.
In states like Telangana, Gujarat, UP and Tamil Nadu, the number of positive cases has not increased proportionate to the increase in testing numbers. However, in few other large states like Andhra Pradesh & Karnataka, the number of positive cases has increased  significantly despite a moderate increase in the testing numbers.
The consistent increase in the daily case numbers indicates that India is to reach the peak. The silver lining is that the positivity rate has started seeing a declining trend in the last few weeks.
The positivity rate of India is better than many other countries barring USA & the European countries. However, the government’s target of a 5% positivity rate is still quite some distance away.


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Data: COVID-19 Testing in India & other Countries
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
May 5, 2020
There has been criticism from multiple quarters about the low COVID-19 testing rates in India. In the past few weeks, a significant improvement in the testing rate is achieved. How does this compare with other countries? Here is an analysis.
A tweet from the BJP’s official Twitter handle ( @BJP4India), on 16 April  2020, states that the scale of COVID-19 testing being conducted in India at the benchmark of 5 thousand cases and 10 thousand cases is among the largest in the world, higher than that of UK, USA & Italy.
India has tested 2,74,599 samples till 9 pm on 15 April.
At the benchmarks of 5,000 and 10,000 cases, the number of tests were 114,015 and 217,554 respectively.
This scale of testing at these stages is one of the largest, way more than tests conducted in US, UK and Italy. pic.twitter.com/LG01VFr7JU
The infographic provided in the tweet contains the details of the number of tests conducted by India on the day the total number of COVID-19 positive cases crossed 5000 and 10000 mark respectively.  Data pertaining to, USA, UK, Italy and Canada are also provided in the infographic for comparison.
As per this information, India has conducted around 1.14 lakh tests by the time 5000 Covid-19 cases were identified. In comparison, the USA, UK and Italy conducted fewer tests when the first 5000 cases were reported. Meanwhile, Canada has conducted more than 2.41 lakh tests when 5000 cases were reported.
It took around 2.17 lakh tests for India to identify 10 thousand cases, while the numbers for the USA, UK and Italy were significantly less as per the infographic shared by the BJP.
Asit appears, the intent of the is to justify and rebut the allegation that Indiais not testing enough and hence the number of positive cases reported are fewerthan other countries.
Inthis story, we take a look at this claim and compare the data with testingnumbers of some other countries.  Aconsolidated official source for COVID-19 numbers for all the countries is notavailable. However, information from various countries has been aggregated atwebsites like  Ourworldindata.org,who collate the information from various official sources.
Thedata from this source does tally with the numbers mentioned in the infographictweeted by the BJP. The numbers also match with the official government sourcesof the respective countries mentioned in the tweet.
Tests
conducted by India among the highest at the 40 thousand cases mark
India has recently crossed 40 thousand COVID-19 positive cases. As per the available data, India conducted nearly 10.5 lakh tests to reach this number.  Testing information is not available for a few of the countries with a high number of cases like – Spain, Russia, Brazil, Iran etc.  to compare the data.
Amongthe countries for which the testing information is available, India hasconducted the highest number of tests to identify 40 thousand cases. It isfollowed by Germany, which has conducted around 9.6 lakh tests on the day itsnumber of positive cases have crossed 40 thousand. Canada, USA and Peru areamong the countries which conducted a greater number of tests to identify itsfirst 40 thousand cases.
Meanwhile,France, U.K, Italy & Belgium have conducted the least number of tests toidentify 40 thousand cases. Among these countries, Germany has conducted moretests to identify its first 20 thousand cases, followed by India.
South
Korea and Canada have conducted more tests than India to detect 5 thousand and
10 thousand cases
Fewcountries have fared well in controlling the spread of COVID-19. South Korea,New Zealand, Canada, Israel etc. are few such examples.  One of the main reasons cited for this is theaggressive testing carried out by them.
Sincemost of these countries have just over 10 thousand positive cases so far, wehave considered 5 thousand and 10 thousand cases as the benchmarks to comparethe number of tests conducted.
India has conducted a greater number of tests to identify its first 5 thousand and 10 thousand cases than most of these countries as well. However, South Korea and Canada have conducted a greater number of tests compared to India. Canada required around 2.41 lakh tests to detect 5 thousand cases i.e. more than double the number of tests conducted by India at that benchmark.
Meanwhile,when it comes to tests conducted to identify 10 thousand cases, South Korea isahead of the others by a significant margin with 4.43 lakh tests, compared to2.17 lakh tests in India. New Zealand is another country which did proactivetesting, that has limited the total number of cases as on 03 May to around1,100 cases for which 1.5 lakh tests were done.
India
slightly better than other countries in terms of tests per confirmed case
Sincethe total number of positive cases in a country can be dependent on thepopulation, the number of tests conducted for a specific benchmark of positivecases may not be the right basis of comparison between the countries.
Furthermore, each of the countries is at a different stage of the outbreak. For example, the number in the USA is upwards of 11 lakh cases, whereas Italy & Spain have more than 2 lakh cases. Hence it would not be prudent to compare their historical data with India which has just crossed 40 thousand cases. Hence, the number of tests per confirmed case could be a better yardstick for comparison.
Asper the current available numbers, India has one positive case per every 26tests conducted.
Vietnam has the highest number of tests per positive case with 966. This is exponentially higher than any of the other countries.  Taiwan and New Zealand which have conducted proactive testing are among the countries with a greater number of tests per positive case detected with 149 and 132 tests respectively.
South Korea which also followed a very planned approach to the testing has detected a positive case per every 59 tests. Italy detected a positive case for every 10 tests, while the USA & UK have positive cases for every 6.2 and 4.7 tests respectively.
India
still lags behind in terms of tests conducted per million
Overthe past few weeks, India has significantly ramped up the number of tests beingconducted to detect COVID-19. As per the information provided by MOHFW, around11 lakh samples were tested as on 04 May 2020. This is a significant increasecompared to around 69 thousand tests conducted as on 04 April 2020. Further, morethan 60 thousand tests were conducted in a day on 03 May 2020.
However,because of the huge population, the testing rates in the country are still onthe lower end.  In an
earlier story, we have highlighted the lower number of tests inIndia compared to other countries. In spite of the significant increase in thenumber of tests, India is among the countries with the least tests per millionpopulation.
As of date, India conducts around 800 tests per million population. In comparison, UK conducts around 17,700 tests per million, while Italy conducts more than 35 thousand tests per million population. Meanwhile, USA which is one of the countries mentioned in BJP’s tweet conducts more than 21 thousand tests per million.
Testing
strategies vary from country-country, hence comparisons can be misleading
The response of Italy, Spain, U.K and a few other European countries has been slow as they were the first few countries that were hit by the pandemic outside of China. By the time the testing was initiated at a large scale, many people were already infected. This is reflected in the smaller number of tests per positive case i.e. the fewer tests conducted at the point of each benchmark being reached in terms of positive cases.
The USA also has a similar story, with the number of cases exploding and mitigating efforts not even across the country. On the contrary, New Zealand, Australia, Canada, South Korea etc. have been proactive in taking the required measures to contain the spread. Hence the number of tests per COVID-19 positive case detected is higher. Vietnam has also been receiving plaudits in the way it has contained COVID-19.
Tests per million is another yardstick which reveals the intensity of the tests being carried out in a country.  India faces a unique situation because of the size of its population that poses a challenge to conduct extensive testing. In spite of the significant increase in the number of tests per day, the number per million is quite low because of the huge population in the country.  Ramping up the testing infrastructure while the country is in Lockdown mode is being suggested by many.
On the other hand, a smarter approach is being suggested to make optimum utilization of available resources, by limiting testing to the most probable ones. In either case, the need is to develop a testing strategy suited to the country, rather than a uniform approach. Hence such comparison may be misleading.
Featured Image: COVID-19 Testing in India and Other Countries


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Data: CPSEs contribution to the Central Exchequer doubled in the last 10 years on account of increase in excise & other duties
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
August 19, 2022
Public Sector Enterprises play an important role in both the economic & social development of the country. Data indicates that while the total number of CPSEs increased the number of operational CPSEs has remained stagnant. The CPSEs’ contribution to the Central Exchequer doubled in the last 10 years on account of an increase in excise & other duties.
A. H. Hanson once said, “Public enterprise without a plan can achieve something but a plan without public enterprise is likely to remain on paper.”  This quote establishes the importance of public sector enterprises in the development of a nation. Public Sector Enterprises, shortly called as PSEs, provide an insight into the vision of the government of the day. They fulfill crucial economic as well as social goals, and they are essential for the equitable development of the nation. Many times, these PSEs perform poorly on the economic front but have high social relevance. Over the years since the 1990s, successive governments have divested government stake in multiple PSEs owing to multiple reasons.
In the first part of this two-part series, we look at the Central Public Sector enterprises (CPSEs) in India and evaluate their financial performance.
The number of CPSEs is on a rise, but operating CPSEs remain stagnant
The total number of CPSEs in 2011-12 was 225, which consistently increased to 389 in 2020-21. This number includes the operating CPSEs, those CPSEs under construction, and the CPSEs under closure or liquidation. However, the number of operating CPSEs increased from 225 in 2011-12 to 258 in 2017-18, after which it stagnated at around 255. Consequently, the number of CPSEs under construction rose from 74 in 2016-17 to 108 in 2020-21, while those under closure/liquidation grew from 2 in 2016-17 to 26 in 2020-21.
70% of the operating CPSEs are profit-making
It is a general misconception that CPSEs are not economically efficient, and they are unviable in the longer term. However, the data suggests that out of the total operating CPSEs, the profit-making CPSEs average about 70%. From 2016-17, the number of profit-making CPSEs is hovering around 177, and the loss-making CPSEs are averaging at 77.
Overall profit and net worth of CPSEs on a consistent rise
Data indicates that profit-making CPSEs dominate the total operating CPSEs. The net profit of the profit-making CPSEs grew from Rs. 1.26 Lakh Crore in 2011-12 to Rs. 1.89 Lakh Crore in 2020-21. Similarly, the net loss of loss-making CPSEs stood at an average of Rs. 0.29 Lakh Crores between 2011-12 and 2020-21. The overall net profit/loss of the operating CPSEs rose from Rs. 0.98 Lakh Crore in 2011-12 to Rs. 1.43 Lakh Crore in 2018-19, after which it fell to Rs. 0.93 Lakh Crore in 2019-20. In 2020-21, the overall net profit/loss stood at Rs. 1.58 Lakh Crores.
However, it will be naïve to assume that all CPSEs generate tremendous profits. In the year 2020-21, around 10 CPSEs accounted for more than 60% of the total profit of profit-making CPSEs.  Similarly, around 10 CPSEs accounted for more than 85% of the total loss of the loss-making CPSEs.
Similarly, the net worth of all the CPSEs grew almost steadily from Rs. 7.76 Lakh Crore in 2011-12 to Rs. 10.67 Lakh Crore in 2016-17 to Rs.13.62 Lakh Crores in 2020-21.
Contribution to Central Exchequer doubled compared to 2011-12
The contribution of the CPSEs to the Central Exchequer has improved during the last decade. It rose from Rs. 1,62,402 Crore in 2011-12 to Rs. 4.96 Lakh Crore in 2020-21. The increase became more significant from 2014-15. It rose from Rs. 1,62, 402 Crore in 2011-12 to Rs. 2,00,593 Crore in 2014-15, thereafter it rose to Rs.2,75,439 Crore in 2015-16, followed by Rs. 3,60,815 Crore in 2016-17. From 2016-17, the contribution saturated in the range of Rs.3.5-3.7 Lakh Crore till 2019-20. It again rose to Rs. 4.96 lakh Crore in 2020-21, which is because of the increase in excise duty collection from Rs.1.65 lakh crore in 2019-20 to Rs. 3.03 lakh crore in 2020-21.
This contribution is by way of excise duty, custom duty, GST, corporate tax, interest on Central Government loans, dividends, and other duties and taxes. Hence, the performance of the CPSEs might not necessarily be the driving factor behind such a huge contribution. Among the cognate groups, the Petroleum (Refinery & Marketing) cognate group held the maximum share at 70% in the contribution of CPSEs to the central exchequer in 2020-21, followed by Coal, Trading & Marketing and Power Generation cognate groups. The steep increase in the excise duty on fuel is one of the prime reasons for the increase in the overall contribution of the petroleum cognate group.
Dipping Foreign Exchange earnings
CPSEs play an important role in earning foreign exchange through the export of goods and services. Exports of goods and merchandise and other income are the major sources of foreign exchange earnings of CPSEs. The foreign exchange earnings of CPSEs in 2011-12 stood at Rs. 1.27 lakh crore, which rose to Rs. 1.45 lakh crore in 2013-14.  From 2014-15, the forex earnings declined till 2018-19, where it peaked at Rs. 1.43 Lakh Crore, followed by a decline to Rs. 1.34 Lakh crore in 2019-20, and to Rs. 0.91 lakh crore in 2020-21. Except for 2018-19 and 2019-20, the forex earnings declined from 2014-15 to date.
Financial investments in CPSEs on a rise
Governments invest in CPSEs either through direct paid-up capital or through loans and share application money and others. The total financial investments in CPSEs rose from Rs. 7.29 lakh crores in 2011-12 to Rs. 21.67 Lakh crores in 2020-21. A significant amount of these investments is raised through loans. In 2020-21, out of the total Rs. 21.67 Lakh crores, Rs. 18.45 lakh crores were raised through loans. Similarly in 2019-20, around Rs. 18.16 Lakh crores were raised through loans out of the total Rs. 21.28 lakh crore investments.
However, this investment is not equitably distributed across sectors. In 2020-21, the Services sector has the highest share in Financial Investments accounting for 67.25% followed by Manufacturing, Processing and Generation (25.09%), and Mining & Exploration (4.89%).
The gross revenue of the CPSEs also increased from Rs. 18.22 Lakh crore in 2011-12 to Rs. 24.26 lakh crore in 2020-21. The gross revenues peaked in 2018-19 at Rs. 25.46 Lakh crore, and thereafter witnessed a decline for two consecutive years.
In the next part of the series, we look at other key parameters relating to the functioning of CPSEs such as employee strength, and R&D expenditure among other indicators.
Featured Image: CPSEs’ contribution to the Central Exchequer


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Data: Crimes Against Children Related to Kidnapping & Abduction, Sexual Offences Show a Steep Increase in the Last 6 Years - FACTLY
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
December 29, 2023
Data from the NCRB shows that crimes against children are reported under 42 different crime heads. Of these, the number of crimes under 21 crime heads has shown an increase, while those under 20 other crime heads have decreased between 2017 to 2022. Crimes related to Kidnapping & Abduction, and sexual offences showed a steep increase across most states.
In the previous story on Crimes Against Children (CAC), based on the compilation of the National Crime Record Bureau’s (NCRB) data, Factly’s analysis showed an 81% increase in nine years in the number of crimes committed against children in India from 89,423 in 2014 to 1,62,449 in 2022.
In this story, we look at the different types of CACs that have shown decreasing and increasing trends from the year 2016 to 2022.
Methodology and Limitations to the Data Recorded by NCRB
The data has been sourced from the Collection of Datasets on Crimes Against Children made by Dataful compiled from the NCRB reports. The analysis is limited to only the 29 states of India, excluding Union Territories. Along with this, the same methodology and the limitation of NCRB data recording such as the Principal Offence Rule method, etc., as were described in the previous story apply to this set of data also.
Over Half of the Crimes Have increased against Children
The NCRB records data of 42 different types of CACs, against 8 Principal Legislations viz. Indian Penal Code (IPC), Special and Local Laws (SLL) such as the Protection of Children from Sexual Offences (POCSO) Act, Juveniles Justice Act (JJA), Immoral Traffic Act (ITA), Child Labour Act (CLA), Prohibition of Child Marriage Act (PCMA), Information Technology Act (ITA) and Transplantation of Organs Act (TOA). Apart from these, the NCRB also records crimes that are committed under other SLL Laws but does not specify the names of these laws in the reports.
Under these 8 Principal Laws, the NCRB records data of 4 legislations, namely IPC, POCSO, JJA, and ITA, by categorizing them according to the different types of crimes under pertinent sections in these legislations.
The analysis of data under 42 different crime heads shows that while the number of crimes under 21 crime heads has increased, the number under 20 other crime heads has decreased from the year 2017 to 2022. No crime was registered under TOA either in 2017 or in 2022.
Kidnapping and Abduction Crimes witness a steep increase
The IPC sections 359 to 369 define and prescribe punishment for various types of Kidnapping and Abduction (K&A) related crimes. The comparison of the data under these sections of all states between 2017 and 2022 shows that the number of crimes under K&A has increased from 48,384 to 68,165 indicating an increase of about 29% in 6 years. When compared to the overall number of CACs in these respective years, the proportion of K&A crimes alone stands at 40% and 44% respectively. Therefore, the data shows that a significant proportion of CACs are crimes relating to Kidnapping & Abduction.
The K&A related crimes are further categorized under different sub-heads. The analysis of this data shows that while the number of crimes under some of these have decreased, the numbers under the others have substantially increased.
Data shows that among 9 different types of K&A related crimes, the number of cases registered under four has reduced in number. Of these, while the K&A for Ransom has shown a marginal decrease from 87 to 82, the importation of girls from other countries has down to zero from 2 in 2017. The other two types of crimes namely K&A for Murder and Procuration of Minor Girls have shown significant reduction from 144 to 26 and 3382 to 1826, respectively during this period.
The number of crimes under the other five K&A related crimes has increased significantly. The number of Missing Children, who are deemed as Kidnapped, has increased doubly from 14,829 to 30,158 during this period. Further, the number of K&A of Children with unknown reasons and the K&A of Minor girls to compel for Marriage has also increased from 14,392 to 18,673 and 12,099 to 13,587, respectively between 2017 and 2022. Even the crimes of K&A for the purpose of begging, and the K&A for the purpose of causing grievous hurt, confinement, and stealing from other person have shown an increasing trend.
It is noteworthy that missing children, deemed as kidnapped, alone constitute to about 44% of the K&A related crimes which have been committed against children. 19 of the 29 states of India have reported an increase in the number of children deemed as kidnapped in 2022 when compared to 2017. Among these, states like Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, and Rajasthan have reported a significant increase in such crimes viz, 1876 to 2807, 3413 to 5672, 3256 to 6197, 686 to 5560 and 638 to 1810, respectively. Further, even among the 10 states that have reported a decrease in the number of missing children deemed as kidnapped, the decrease has been minimal. The greatest such reduction in the number of missing children is from Bihar which has reported a reduction from 694 to 527 between 2017 and 2022. Therefore, when compared to the states that reported an increase in the number of missing children, the states with decreased numbers did not report a proportional decrease.
Crimes related to Child Labour, Child Marriage and Infanticide also show an increase
The analysis of NCRB data also shows that the number of crimes related to Child Labour, Infanticide, Child Marriage, and K&A of Minor Girls to compel them for Marriage increased during this period.
The data shows that while crimes related to child labour under CLA have increased substantially by 38% from 441 to 713, the crimes registered under PCMA have increased even more by 60% from 392 to 1001. Among these crimes, 11 states have reported an increase in the number of child labour cases, and 19 states have reported an increase in child marriage related cases.
Similarly, the data also shows a marginal increase in the Infanticide cases from 71 to 80 and K&A for the purpose of begging from 71 to 97. Along with these, as mentioned earlier, even the K&A of Minor Girls to compel them for Marriage has also shown a marginal increase of 10% from 12,099 to 13,587.
Therefore, in a nutshell, along with K&A related crimes of missing children, even the crimes of infanticide, child labour, making children beg, compelling them for marriage, etc. have shown an increase during this period.
Sexual Crimes have also witnessed a Steep increase
In the suo motu petition which the Supreme Court took by itself on sexual crimes committed against children, it has noted that sexual crimes against children have increased at an “alarming rate”. The analysis of the NCRB data confirms this observation by the apex court that sexual crimes against Children have increased steeply.
The NCRB categorizes these crime data by two laws, namely the IPC and POCSO Act, which define and prescribe punishment for the commission of different types of offences. Accordingly, there are 4 types of sexual crimes for which data has been recorded by NCRB.
Analysis of this data shows that 3 of these 4 types of crimes have witnessed a substantial increase from the year 2017 to 2022. Only the number of cases registered under ‘attempt to commit rape’ has decreased from 450 to 90, while the number of cases related to sexual assault and aggravated sexual assault, and rape, which includes penetrative sexual assault and aggravated penetrative sexual assault, increased from 1264 to 2673, 11,953 to 20,519 and 26,526 to 37,777, respectively. Thus, the data shows that these crimes related to sexual harassment, assault and rape have increased by 52%, 44% and 29%, respectively.
It is also important to note that 25 out of the 29 states reported an increase in the number of cases registered under penetrative sexual assault and aggravated penetrative sexual assault between 2017 and 2022. Among these, the states of Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, and Uttar Pradesh have reported a substantial increase from 183 to 1002, 1095 to 1809, 1233 to 2131, 964 to 3646, 2387 to 4182, 150 to 1720 and 1609 to 3448, respectively. Similarly, even in the case of crimes related to sexual assault and aggravated sexual assault, 22 out of the 29 states have reported an increase in the number of crimes.
Along with these sexual crimes, other associated crimes such as transmitting material involving children in the sexually explicit act, using the child for pornography, and procuring or inducing child for the sake of prostitution have also seen an increase from 7 to 150, 374 to 690 and 17 to 28, respectively. The only other associated crimes that have shown a decrease are the selling and buying of minors for prostitution which have come down from 81 to 9 and 4 to 3, respectively between 2017 and 2022.
The data clearly shows that the number of all sexual and other associated crimes committed against children has increased from 40,676 in 2017 to 61,929 in the year 2022, showing an increase of about 34% within a span of 6 years. Further, when compared to the overall number of crimes committed against children in the year 2022, the percentage share of sexual and their associated crimes stands at about 40%.
As noted earlier, the data also shows that 20 of the CACs have witnessed a reduction between 2017 and 2022. The notable among these 16 crimes are murder, murder with rape, K&A to murder, exposure and abandonment, procuration of minor girls, selling of minors for prostitution, etc. The crimes that showed significant reduction among these crimes are K&A to murder, procuration of minor girls, selling of minors for prostitution, and causing grievous hurt, which has shown the decrease from 144 to 27, 3382 to 1827, 81 to 9, and 924 to 458, respectively.
India Needs More Protective Measures
The NCRB data shows that the major crimes that have shown an increase in number are related to Kidnapping and Abduction for various purposes and Sexual offences. Along with these, crimes related to child labour, child marriage, trafficking, and even infanticide have also shown an increase in number. Further, even among the crimes that have shown a reduction in number, the reduction has been marginal except for a few. For example, the crimes of foeticide, kidnapping for ransom, offences by caretakers of juveniles, exposure and abandonment have only decreased from 114 to 100, 87 to 82, 273 to 239, and 857 to 792, respectively during 2017 and 2022. The trends show an alarming situation with most states reporting an increase in major crimes against children.
The World Health Organization (WHO) notes that experiencing violence in the childhood impacts lifelong health and well-being of children. The POCSO Act of India sets out one of its objectives as “it is imperative that the law operates in a manner that the best interest and well-being of the child are regarded as being of paramount importance at every stage, to ensure the healthy physical, emotional, intellectual and social development of the child”
To meet these objectives, together with objectives set out in other national and international laws, India needs to more measures to ensure the protection and well-being of children in every way.
While it can be argued that greater awareness may be leading to increased registration of cases, the data related to the disposal of these cases by police & courts will provide a better picture of the status of these crimes.

created: December 29, 2023


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Data: CSR Expenditure on Healthcare More Than Doubled in the Last Four Years
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
August 24, 2023
Data as of August 2023 indicates that more than Rs. 1.5 lakh crores have been spent under CSR since 2014-15. Between 2018-19 and 2021-22, expenditure on healthcare more than doubled. Majority of the expenditure is industrialized states.
The role of corporations in society has come under increasing scrutiny in the aftermath of tremendous economic expansion and integration into the global economy. This economic progress has not, however, spread evenly throughout society, and there is a substantial rural-urban gap, poverty, malnutrition, and difficulties in the areas of education and health. The concept of corporate social responsibility (CSR) was developed with the intention of making businesses more accountable for their social and environmental responsibilities.
From initially being a voluntary sustainability reporting mechanism to a legislative mandate, the concept of CSR has undergone various reforms, from reporting requirements to enhanced disclosures wherein penalties deter rather than punish.
In this story, we look at the pattern of CSR expenditures post-COVID-19 and analyse if there has been any deviation from the earlier years. Read our earlier story on CSR expenditure here. The data used for the analysis has been obtained from Dataful, wherein the statistics related to CSR are maintained in a clean and standardized format. The primary source of the data is the National CSR Portal.
CSR expenditure crosses the 1.5 trillion Rupees milestone in Eight years from 2014-15 to 2021-22.
The primary goal of CSR is to promote ethical and sustainable business philosophy on a broad scale and to inspire enterprises to come up with innovative ideas and strong management strategies for resolving social and environmental problems. In the past eight years, there has been decent progress in creating sustainable projects with long-term benefits.
It is observed that over the past eight years, there has been an incremental growth in the CSR expenditure. From Rs. 10,065 crores in 2014-15, the CSR expenditure rose to Rs. 26,211 crores in 2020-21, the highest since the enactment. Thereafter, it reduced marginally to Rs. 25,932 Crore in 2021-22, as per data available on the CSR portal as of August 2023. Overall, the cumulative CSR expenditure has crossed 1.5 lakh crores since it was made mandatory.
Despite such impressive figures, there are shortcomings too. Before the onset of COVID-19, between 2017-18 to 2019-20, the average annual growth rate of CSR expenditure had been nearly 20%. However, for 2020-21, the average annual growth rate was merely 5%, whereas 2021-22 registered a negative growth rate of 1%. The number of companies filing in the MCA21 registry also fell from 25,179 in 2018-19 to 18,012 in 2020-21.
CSR expenditure on Health Care grew by 50% post COVID-19
The COVID-19 pandemic has posed challenges to firms and organizations with regard to CSR. The successive waves of COVID-19 have inevitably put brakes on regular activities. This has required businesses to balance efforts for employee welfare, operational necessities, and their societal commitments.
The Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) had issued a slew of notifications indicating the eligibility of spending on COVID-19 relief and prevention under CSR. The numbers from the CRISIL CSR Yearbook 2021, indicate that during the first wave, there was a significant increase in cash donations, mostly through the PM CARES Fund. In the second wave, owing to its severity, support largely came in the form of healthcare infrastructure such as PPE Kits, Ventilators, and Oxygen cylinders among others.
While the CSR portal does not maintain specific data on COVID-19, it is clear that there has been a shift in spending towards healthcare post-COVID-19. The sectoral data on CSR expenditure indicate that healthcare spending rose from Rs. 4,905 Crores in 2019-20 to Rs. 7,325 Crores in 2020-21, marking a 50% growth. As mentioned above, the PM National Relief Fund had also witnessed almost 100% growth, from Rs. 7,98 Crores in 2019-20 to Rs.1,698 Crores in 2020-21. In 2021-22, the contributions to PMNRF fell to Rs. 1,191 Crores.  The expenditure on other central government funds grew from Rs. 932 Crores in 2019-20 to Rs. 1,618 Crores in 2020-21. In 2021-22, it fell to Rs. 303 Crores.
Flow of CSR funds is highly skewed towards few states (mostly industrialized states).
A state-by-state examination of CSR expenditure finds that some states have the highest concentration of CSR-led activity, which is increasing over time. In terms of total CSR spending from 2014–15 to 2021-22, states like Maharashtra, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Tamil Nadu, and Delhi received about 40% of the total expenditure.
Out of the total districts in India, NITI Aayog categorized 112 districts as aspirational (112 most under-developed districts across the country). More than half of these districts are spread across five states namely- Jharkhand (19), Bihar (13), Chhattisgarh (10), Madhya Pradesh (8), and Uttar Pradesh (8). The flow of CSR funds to these states over the past eight years has been merely 6% of the total CSR expenditure.
It is important to note that the states that receive 40% of the CSR funds constitute only 10% of the 112 aspirational districts, whereas states that have a higher number of aspirational districts receive only a miniscule share (6%) of CSR funds, indicating the heavy skewness towards some selected states. There is a skew in favour of industrialised states such that the least developed states receive the least funds. While operational areas of companies have a major role to play in the location of CSR expenditure, such a heavy skew indicates that the funds may not be spent in the most needed areas.
Need a robust database and compliance mechanism on CSR expenditure.
On multiple occasions during the Parliament sessions, the Government pointed out to the existing corporate governance framework and legal provisions to check for compliance of CSR activity. However, there is no oversight mechanism to check on the CSR compliance. The High-Level Committee on CSR in 2018 also called out the need to have a statutory auditing of CSR funds.
The report also highlighted the low compliance in CSR expenditure. The report also highlighted the skewness of the flow of CSR funds. It recommended companies need to balance CSR spending between local areas/areas around where it operates, and less developed regions such as aspirational districts. Further, it was observed that a majority chunk of CSR funds was spent by implementing agencies, and fund transfer by companies to these agencies was counted as CSR spending. The committee recommended that such disbursal is not misconstrued as CSR Spending.
The Committee further recommended that an independent third party may undertake an assessment of CSR Projects to identify best practices and showcase them as role-model projects for the benefit of all.


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Death Registration rate increased in 2018 but issues with medical certification of deaths continue
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
April 23, 2021
The latest 2018 report of the ‘Civil Registration System’ and ‘Medically Certified Deaths’ indicate that the death registration rate in India increased to over 80% in 2018 while the medically certified deaths continue to be much lower. Here is a review.
As per the daily update provided by the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare (MoHFW), there were over 2 thousand COVID-19 related deaths reported on 21April 2021.  Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country, over 1.84 lakh deaths have been reported in India due to COVID-19. During the first wave of COVID-19 infection in the country, the fatality rate in India has been among the least in the world. While the fatality rate is not alarmingly different in the second wave as yet, it is still early days in the second wave.
At the same time, there are claims of under-reporting of deaths from multiple sections of the media and by various organizations. An article in the financial times estimates that the actual deaths in a few cities could be 10 times more than what is officially reported.
In an earlier story, we have highlighted the general trend in the under-registration of the deaths in the country. While India is among the top-5 countries in terms of total COVID-19 related deaths, how do these deaths compare with the number of deaths that usually occur in India every year? We had earlier analysed the trends in the recording of deaths in the country based on official reports. Here is an analysis based on the latest available data.
Highest rate of increase in registered deaths in over 10-year period recorded in 2018.
Among other information, Vital Statistics of India based on the Civil Registration System report provides information about the registered deaths in the country. As per the latest report for the year 2018, around 69.5 lakh deaths were registered across the country in 2018. This is a 7.7% increase when compared to that of the 2017 number. A higher year-on-year increase was reported in 2007 when the number of registered deaths was 9.1% more than in 2006.
In the earlier story, we had highlighted the lack of comprehensive information relating to mortality in India. The Civil Registration System, under which the births & deaths are registered is the most reliable source. However, the data reported by the system is largely dependent on the registration of births & deaths across the country.
The increase in the number of registered deaths in 2018 might not indicate an actual increase in the number of deaths as compared to the previous year but point to an increased awareness in getting the deaths registered. In fact, the 2018 report estimates the total deaths in the country at 80.77 lakh as compared to 81.17 lakh in 2017. In other words, there is an increase in the percentage of registered deaths in comparison with the estimated deaths in 2018 at 86% compared to 79.6 % in 2017.
Bihar, Jharkhand, U.P & Telangana along with most of North-Eastern States have a lower rate of Death registration
The level of registration of deaths has consistently increased over the years, as per the CRS report. In 2009, the rate of registration was 66.9% of the estimated deaths. This national figure has increased year on year to reach 86% in 2018. While there is a significant increase in the level of registration in India, it is not consistent across the states.
If one considers the 2018 figures of death registration, Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Haryana, Karnataka, Kerala, Odisha, Punjab & Tamil Nadu are among the larger states which have a 100% death registration rate i.e., the number of deaths registered in the respective states is on par or more than the estimated deaths, as per the CRS report. The registration rate has been higher and consistent in these states even during the previous years.
Meanwhile, only 34.6% of estimated deaths were registered in Bihar during 2018. In the earlier year, it was only 42.7%.  A total of 60.8% of the estimated deaths were registered in Uttar Pradesh in 2018. Although it is still among the least in larger states, there is a significant improvement compared to 38.3% in 2017. Over the period of 2009-2016, the registration rate in U.P was mostly in the range of 40-50%.
In 2018, Telangana has registered only 58.2% of the estimated deaths, which is lower than its usual rate of more than 75% in the previous years. Jharkhand is another state with a relatively lower death registration rate. The north-eastern states of Tripura, Sikkim & Mizoram have 100% death registration rates whereas the rates are much lower in other north-eastern States.
None of the major states reported more than 45% of the registered deaths as Medically Certified deaths.
In an earlier story, we highlighted that only a limited number of hospitals are covered under the Medical Certification of Cause of Death scheme (MCCD). In 2017, there were 58,240 such institutions whereas as per a report on ‘Medical Certification of Cause of Death-2018’, the number of such institutions was only 57.1 thousand. This could be due to few states not providing the details.
As per the information provided in the 2018 report, only 21% of the total registered deaths are MCDs (Medically Certified Deaths) in 2018. This is lower than that of 2017 when this was 22%.  As with the case of the death registration rate, there are variations among the states. But as a general trend, the share of MCDs is lower among most of the major states compared to the rate of registration.  Tamil Nadu is the highest among the bigger states with 45% of registered deaths being Medically certified. Jharkhand & Uttar Pradesh are at the bottom with only 4.6% & 5.1% of the registered deaths being medically certified.
Diseases of Circulatory System form the major portion of MCDs
In 2018, out of the total Medically Certified deaths, 4.78 lakh deaths i.e., 32.9% were due to diseases related to the ‘Circulatory System’.  This forms a major part of the MCDs. Even in the previous years, the proportion of deaths due to diseases of ‘Circulatory System’ are higher compared to the other categories.
Around 1.36 lakh i.e., 9.4% of MCDs are due to diseases of the ‘Respiratory system’ in 2018. Roundabout the same proportion is the MCDs because of ‘Certain infectious & Parasitic Diseases’.
Data over the years shows that while the proportion of MCDs due to ‘Respiratory System’ related diseases has remained the same, the share of MCDs due to ‘Certain infectious & Parasitic Diseases’ has come down. This share is being compensated by MCDs due to ‘Neoplasms’ or ‘Endocrine, Nutritional or Metabolic Diseases’. In terms of age group, a major portion of MCDs is of those above 70 years of age.
This data can be further corroborated with ‘Causes of Death Statistics’ available with Census India. As per the cause of Death 2010-2013 report, Cardio-Vascular & Respiratory diseases are the two major causes of the surveyed deaths in India.
Lack of provision to determine the co-morbidity for COVID-19 related deaths
As per the available information regarding mortality in India, it can be ascertained that:
This ambiguity in terms of the actual cause can be seen in the case of COVID-19 deaths as well. Considering that the COVID-19 infection started to increase around March-April 2020, we can assume the end of March 2021 marks one full year of COVID-19 infections in India. As of 31 March 2021, over 1.62 lakh COVID-19 related deaths were reported in the country.
However, we do not have any comprehensive information on the co-morbidities which could have contributed to the death of COVID-19 infected patients. This information is crucial in understanding any relationship between the more prevalent causes of death in India and the COVID-19 related deaths. Lack of such information hampers any detailed analysis and healthcare planning.  We had highlighted this concern in an earlier story, where the USA & European countries are being proactive in detailed reporting of COVID-19 related deaths.
Furthermore, the above-highlighted reasons for lower & inconsistent death reporting in India raise questions on the number of actual COVID-19 related deaths in the country. The higher number of COVID-19 deaths reported from states that generally have a higher Death registration rate, and lower COVID-19 deaths from a few of the states with lower registration rates raises questions on the veracity of COVID-19 death numbers in the country.
Featured Image: Death Registration Rates in India