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Data: Pendency rate of NDPS cases in Courts crosses 90% in 2020
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
October 19, 2021
The debate on drugs has once again been in the limelight after a spate of high-profile seizures & arrests. However, data from the NCRB’s Crime in India report indicates that COVID-19 has severely impacted the functioning of the police & courts. The pendency rate of NDPS cases in courts crossed 90% by the end of 2020.
The recent arrest of the son of a Bollywood actor on the allegation of possessing drugs & the seizure of 2988 kgs ‘Heroin’ from the Mundra port has once again brought the issue of drugs into the limelight. The performance of enforcement agencies in controlling the illegal trade & usage of the banned substances is also being debated.
In India, the Narcotics Drugs & Psychotropic Substances Act, 1985 (NDPS) is the relevant law for control and regulation of operations relating to narcotic drugs and psychotropic substances. We have explained in detail about the NDPS act in an earlier story. Amidst the current debate on drugs, we look at the trends in the incidence of cases under the NDPS Act and their disposal by the police & courts.
The number of Cases registered under NDPS decreased in 2020
In an earlier story, we highlighted that there is more than a 25% increase in the number of cases registered under the NDPS act during 2017 & 2018 compared to the earlier years.  The number in 2019 increased further with more than 72,000 cases registered under the NDPS act. As a result, the crime rate also increased to 5.4 (per lakh population) in 2019 compared to 5 & 4.8 in 2017 and 2018 respectively.
However, as per the latest NCRB’s Crime in India (CII -2020) report, the number of cases booked under the NDPS Act has reduced to 59.8 thousand in 2020 and the crime rate fell to 4 per lakh population.  The fall in the incidence of cases under NDPS is in line with the overall decreasing trend during 2020. The COVID-19 related lockdowns and control measures with restrictions on the movement of citizens seem to have had an impact on the trade and consumption of the drugs which meant fewer cases.
Fall in cases in 2020 mainly due to a fall in Cases booked for possession of drugs for personal use
Among the cases registered under NDPS, the general trend has been that the number of cases registered for possession of drugs for personal use is higher than the ones booked for Possession for trafficking.
Even in 2020, the number of cases registered for possession of drugs for personal use is higher than the number registered for possession for purpose of trafficking. However, there is not much difference in the number of cases registered for possession for trafficking between 2019 and 2020. In 2019, 27.1 thousand cases were registered while in 2020 its 26.5 thousand cases.
The reason for the fall in the number of cases registered under NDPS in 2020, is the substantial reduction in the number of cases registered for possessing the drugs for personal use. In 2018. 38.7 thousand cases were registered under this cause which increased to 45.6 thousand cases in 2019. However, it fell by around 27% in 2020 to 33.2 thousand cases. The fall could be attributed to the restricted movement and gathering at public spaces due to COVID-19 restrictions.
Percentage of cases pending with police has increased in 2020
In an earlier story on Police disposal of cases under the NDPS Act, we observed that the pendency of cases with the police reduced over the years. In 2014, the pending cases constituted around 39% of the total cases investigated by police that year, which fell to around 32% in 2018. The trend continued even in 2019, with the proportion of pending cases with the police hovering around 31%. However, this trend was reversed in 2020 with a sharp increase in the proportion of cases pending with the police. The proportion of cases pending with the police crossed 40% in 2020. This increase in pendency is even though fewer new cases were registered in 2020.
In 2019, around 1.01 lakh cases were taken up by the police of which around 67.5% i.e.,68.5 thousand cases were charge-sheeted and sent for trial in courts.  The number of pending cases carried forward was around 31.9 thousand. Meanwhile, in 2020, comparatively fewer cases were to be investigated by the police i.e., around 92 thousand. Of these, the police filed the Chargesheet in only about 54 thousand cases. This resulted in a 16% increase in the number of cases pending with police by end of 2020 compared to 2019. While there has been a consistent increase in the number of pending cases, the increase was not substantial and in fact, their share in the total cases investigated was declining. However, in 2020, this trend was reversed as noted earlier.
The pressure on the Police force to enforce COVID-19 related control measures could have affected their regular functioning.
Only around 7% of the cases under the NDPS act disposed by Courts in 2020, less than half of 2019
As per our earlier analysis on Court disposal of cases under the NDPS Act, only around 16% of the cases up for trial in 2018 were disposed by the courts. Out of these, 12% resulted in convictions, and in the rest 4% of the cases, the accused were either discharged/acquitted. Around 84 % of the cases were pending trial by the end of 2018.
In 2019, the same trend continued with minor variations. Despite an increase in the number of cases up for trial in 2019, the proportion of cases disposed by the courts and those that are still pending nearly remained the same as in 2018.  However, 2020 presents a contrasting picture.
The total number of cases up for trial in courts increased to 2.72 lakhs in 2020, but the rate of increase was lower in 2020 on account of the lower disposal by police.
Despite this, the number of cases disposed by the courts witnessed a sharp fall. The number of cases resulting in convictions reduced from 32 thousand in 2019 to 14.3 thousand in 2020 i.e., only about 5% out of the total cases up for a trial, compared to 12% in 2019. The proportion of cases resulting in discharge/acquittals also fell from 3.7% in 2019 to 1.2% in 2020. Overall, only about 7% of the cases that were up for trial in 2020 were disposed by the courts compared to 16% in 2019.
The stark reduction in disposal meant that the proportion of pending cases in courts relating to the NDPS act rose sharply by the end of 2020. The pendency rate which was 84% by the end of 2019 increased further to reach 93.5% by the end of 2020. The closure of the courts for a considerable period in 2020 due to the COVID-19 has severely affected their functioning, resulting in increased pendency.
Impact of COVID-19 clearly visible in Police & Court disposal of cases under NDPS act
Even prior to 2020, the high pendency rate of cases registered under the NDPS act raised serious questions about the utility of an act like NDPS and its deterrence effect. Year after year, the pendency rate only increased. However, the year 2020 has worsened the situation to a large extent with the pendency rate of courts crossing 90%.
While it be could be argued that the COVID-19 pandemic was to blame for such an increase, the effects of such an increase would be felt in the years to come with huge backlogs for the courts and the police to clear.
The purpose of the NDPS Act is to have effective legislation to deal with the illicit use of drugs and drugs trade, in addition to being legislation aimed at reformation of the users. The higher pendency defeats the very purpose of having the legislation in place. We have earlier highlighted that possession of drugs in small quantities attracts imprisonment for 12 months and in case of consumption for 6 months. Lengthy trials running into years would be an injustice to the accused in such cases.

created: October 19, 2021


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Data: People Covered under Various Life Insurance Policies Record a Significant Increase while Rural Coverage Concerns Remain
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
May 6, 2024
Data published by the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India indicates that while the total number of life insurance policies has seen a fluctuating trend in the last few years, the number of lives covered under group schemes has significantly increased.
The emphasis placed by individuals on financial security and economic independence throughout life requires no explanation. In the fast-paced modern world, most people’s daily endeavours revolve around ensuring their own and their loved ones’ financial stability at various stages of life. In line with this, the practice of securing oneself economically through life or non-life insurance has gained global traction, including in India.
In one of Factly’s previous articles, we analysed the surge in life and health insurance policies during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this story, we look at decade-long trends in the growth of various types of life insurance.
Methodology and Notes
Insurance uptake on the rise in India
As per IRDAI, India ranked 10 for Life Insurance (LI) and 15 for Non-Life Insurance (NLI) globally in 2019. Compared to 2018, LI premiums increased by 9.6% and NLI insurance premiums by 7.9%, whereas global premiums rose by 1.1% and 3.3% respectively during the same period.
The upward trajectory of insurance is also evident in insurance penetration and density. Insurance penetration, indicating the percentage of insurance premiums to GDP, rose from 2.7% in 2001 to 3.7% in 2019, while insurance density, representing the premium-to-population ratio (per capita premium), increased from $11.5 to $78 during the same period. These figures underscore the increasing trend in both LI and NLI in India.
Notably, these statistics highlight the Indian preference for life insurance over non-life insurance. As per the data, as of 2019, the global share of LIs and NLIs stood at 46.34% and 53.66%, respectively. In contrast, in India, their respective shares were 74.64% and 25.06%.
Data shows increase in Most parameters of Life Insurance
The LI data published by IRDAI includes various parameters such as the number of policies or schemes issued by insurance companies, including the first-year premium polices, the coverage of lives under group insurance schemes, and the overall sum assured. An analysis of this data spanning a decade reveals a consistent increase across all these parameters.
The data presents a notable upward trend across various parameters of life insurance from the fiscal year 2014-15 to 2023-24 (as of February 2024). Over this period, both the number of policies purchased, and individuals covered under group schemes have increased substantially, from 95 lakhs to 2.4 crores and 3.5 crores to 26.7 crores, respectively. Additionally, there was a significant increase in the total amount collected under first-year premiums from Rs. 41,421 crores to Rs. 3,17,745 crores during this period, because of the increase in total number of policies. Furthermore, the total sum assured under life insurance policies witnessed significant growth, soaring from Rs. 25,92,284 crores to Rs. 78,50,135 crores, marking a 202% increase from the fiscal year 2019-20 to 2023-24. These figures collectively underscore a consistent upward momentum across all parameters of life insurance.
However, when analysed annually, the number of policies bought has shown fluctuating trends. Total purchases peaked at 3 crores during 2017-18, decreased to 2.9 crores in 2021-22, and further declined to 2.3 crores in 2022-23. The factors driving these fluctuations require further examination.
Number of People Covered under Group Schemes Witnesses Steep Increase
Data also indicates a significant spike in the number of individuals covered under group insurance. This figure surged from 6.9 crores in 2016-17 to 21 crores in 2017-18, marking more than a 200% increase from the previous year. This upward trend continued, reaching a total of 26.7 crores by 2023-24. This sudden rise could be attributed to the implementation of life insurance scheme tied to Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY) and the Pradhan Mantri Jeevan Jyoti Bima Yojana (PMJJBY). According to official data sources, the number of beneficiaries under the PMJDY and PMJJBY schemes increased from 2.9 crores to 3.1 crores and from 14.5 crores to 21.4 crores, respectively, between 2015-16 and 2016-17.  These could be the reasons for significant increase in the number of individuals covered under group schemes starting 2017-18.
Moreover, the total enrolment under PMJJBY as of 2023-24 stands at 16 crores, a significant increase from 2.9 crores in 2015-16. On the other hand, the total number of people covered under life insurance as of 2023-24 is 26.7 crores, of which the number of enrolments under PMJJBY alone accounts for about 16 crores.
Number of Individual Policies reduce in the last few years
The life insurance policies bought are of Single and Non-Single Payment options, available for both Individual and Group insurance. Single premium involves a one-time payment, whereas non-single payment allows premiums to be paid in instalments, such as yearly or quarterly. Additionally, the IRDAI also publishes data on the number of policies which are bought under Group Yearly Renewable Premium.
Analysis of this data reveals that from 2014-15 to 2023-24, over 93% of purchased policies fall under Individual Non-single payment. Individual single payment policies, accounting for a share ranging between 4 to 6% over the same period.  Group policies, including group yearly renewable premium, make up less than 1% of the total policies purchased.
On the other hand, in terms of the sum assured, group policies accounted for a larger share as expected. From 2018-19, the share of Group’s Yearly Renewable, Single, and Non-single in the sum assured ranged from 38% to 46%, 21% to 23%, and 1% to 3%, respectively of the total sum assured across all life insurance policies. Together, their collective share in 2023-24 was 70%.
Within Individual policies, the share of total sum assured under the non-single payment mode fluctuated between 29% to 40% over the years, while the single payment’s share remained below 1% across the same period. In 2023-24, their combined share was approximately 30%.
Public Insurers dominate number of policies while Private ones in Sum Assured under Group Insurance
From the year 2014-15 to 2023-24, a total of 30 companies have provided life insurance services. Among these, only two are public entities, namely Life Insurance Corporation of India (LIC) and State Bank of India (SBI), with the remaining being private companies.
Over these years, the majority of policies, including first-year premium policies, purchased were from these public insurers. From 2014-15 onwards, private companies held a fluctuating share of between 17-23% for the total number of policies and 26-31% for first-year policies, with the rest being issued by public insurers.
Even within the public sector, LIC consistently held a larger share. For instance, in April 2023, LIC held 69% of the total number of policies and 49% of first-year policies bought, while SBI held only 9% and 21%, respectively. The same trend continued across all years, making LIC the preferred choice among the public.
Though the public insurers account for a higher share of life insurance policies, private companies accounted for a majority in terms of lives covered under group and also the sum assured, both crossing 70% share in recent years.
Data of the last 10 years indicates that while there is an increase in insurance penetration, density, and coverage of individuals, along with the sum assured, the coverage is still dismal particularly in rural India. Media reports indicate that only about 8-10% of rural population is covered under a life insurance. Even the IRDAI (Obligations of Insurers to. Rural and Social Sectors) Regulations, 2015 mandate a specific percentage of the business of an insurer from rural areas.

source: news-factly

license: Creative Commons - Attribution - https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

author: Sai Krishna Muthyanolla


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Per student expenditure on education in Urban areas is three times expenditure in rural areas
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
September 25, 2020
The 75th round of the NSS looked at various aspects of education including expenditure. Data indicates that per student expenditure on education in urban areas is three times the expenditure in rural areas. Stark difference is also observed in the expenditure on education between males & female, especially in the case of technical/professional courses at the diploma level.
As part of the survey findings of 75 round of National Sample Survey (NSS), the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) released a report titled ‘Household Social Consumption on Education in India’.
This nation-wide survey was conducted by National Statistical Office (NSO) during the period July 2017-June 2018. The earlier round of survey on this topic i.e. Household Social Consumption on Education in India was during the 71 round of NSS (January – June 2014).
The survey on social consumption on education provides the data on various indicators relating to education like – level of education, attendance, incentives received by the students, expenditure on education etc. and offers insights which can be used in decision support, policy inferences and analysis.
In another story based on this report, we analysed the trends regarding the students’ preference and attendance in various education institutions. In this story, we delve into the household expenditure on Education as per this report based on 75 round of NSS.
High variation in expenditure on education at early levels between Urban & Rural areas
The expenditure on education in urban area is nearly three times that in rural area as an average of all levels of education for a general course as per the findings of this survey.
The average expenditure in rural areas is Rs. 5,240 while it is Rs. 16,308 in Urban areas. While at all the levels of education i.e. from Pre-primary to Post Graduate and above, the average expenditure per student is higher in the urban areas when compared to the rural areas, the difference is stark at early levels of education.
The average amount spent per student at the pre-primary level in an academic year is Rs. 5,655 in rural areas which in Urban areas is nearly threefold with Rs. 14,509.  Even at the Primary level, the expenditure per student per academic year is Rs. 3,545 to Rs. 13,516 for rural and urban areas respectively. This large variance between rural and urban areas also extends to other levels of education – Upper Primary, Higher secondary & secondary along with Diploma and Certificate courses. The difference is comparatively lesser from graduate level and above even though the expenditure incurred per student is higher at these levels.
Significantly higher amount is spent by Males in Urban areas for Diploma/Certificate course
Apart from the difference in expenditure between rural and urban areas, difference also exists between the amount spent on education of males and females.  The extent of this difference varies across different levels of education.
As noticed earlier, the difference in rural and urban areas is stark at early levels of education with the difference comparatively lesser at higher levels of education. In terms of gender, the difference in expenditure per student for a basic course does not vary much between the genders in the same locality setting, with certain exceptions.
General courses at the Diploma/certificate level offer this variance – both at below graduate level and graduate & above levels.
Expenditure on Technical/Professional Course is nearly 6 times more than cost of general course
As per the survey findings, the average expenditure on a general course per academic year is Rs. 8,331 per student whereas in case of technical/professional course, the average cost is around 6-fold with Rs. 50,337 per student in an academic year. Not much difference exists between a male and female student, even though the expenditure incurred on education by males is slightly higher.
However, there does exist larger variance between rural and urban locations. The expenditure in a rural area on a general course is Rs. 5,240 per student in an academic year whereas the same in an urban area is Rs.16,308.
In the case of a technical/professional course in a rural area the expenditure is Rs. 32,137 while it is almost double in Urban areas with Rs. 64,763 per student in an academic year.
Expenditure on Course fee, transport & private coaching is higher in urban areas
A major portion of the expenditure incurred on education is for the course fee. Course fee includes the expenditure towards – tuition fee, examination fee and other compulsory payments etc. Both in rural areas as well as urban areas, the course fee constitutes nearly 50% of the total expenditure towards education per student in an academic year.
As observed in this story already, the expenditure is significantly higher in the urban areas compared to that of rural areas. Apart from the course fee, the expenditure incurred on transport along with private coaching is also higher in the urban areas.
On an average, Rs.788 is spent on transportation in rural areas whereas it is Rs. 1939 in urban areas. The expenditure incurred on private coaching is comparatively higher in Urban areas. While Rs. 584 is spent on private coaching in rural areas, it is more than 3 times in urban areas with Rs.1952 per student.
Although the expenditure on males is comparatively higher, there is no significant difference based on gender. These numbers are across courses i.e. both general and technical education.
The higher expenditure as noted earlier for technical education is largely due to the higher amount being spent on the course fee. Around 80% of the expenditure incurred on technical education is due to course fee.
Significantly higher expenditure in Urban areas compared to Rural areas
A consistent trend observed across the courses (general & technical) and gender is that the expenditure incurred in urban areas is significantly higher compared to that of rural areas. Details of the various components shows that a major portion of the expenditure is due to higher course fee in urban areas compared to the course fee in rural areas.
Although transportation and private coaching expenditure are also higher, their proportion is lesser compared to the course fee. In the earlier story, we observed that a major portion of the students in rural areas attend government institutions whereas those in the urban areas lean towards private institutions. This could partly explain the rationale behind the higher expenditure in urban areas.
Another trend observed in terms of gender is the higher expenditure on securing diploma or certificate courses (both general and technical) by males compared to females. These courses are beyond the regular academics and tend to be vocational or additional proficiency  courses in nature. Higher expenditure for males shows more propensity to invest in education of a male compared to that of females. It could also indicate the nature of courses being chosen by males compared to females.
While lower expenditure in rural areas due to higher enrolment in government institutions can be a positive trend in terms of accessibility of education, the same cannot be said regarding quality, as highlighted in the earlier story.
About the Survey: For the 75th round of the survey, a sample of 64,519 rural households from 8,097 villages and 49,23 urban households from 6,188 blocks were covered across India. The survey gives both qualitative and quantitative information, covering students falling in the age bracket of three to thirty-five years who attend educational institutions at different levels from pre-primary to graduate level and beyond. Data in the survey is based on information provided by respondents and not from official sources.
Featured Image: Expenditure on education

created: September 25, 2020


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Data: Permanent employee strength of CPSEs declined by more than 35% in the last 8 years
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
August 23, 2022
In this second part of this series on CPSEs, we focus on human resources in terms of aspects like the personnel strength, caste-wise representation of the personnel, yearly trend of the human resources among other things. Data indicates that the permanent employee strength of CPSEs declined by more than 35% in the last 8 years.
In the first part of this two-part series, we looked at the financial aspects of the Central Public Sector Enterprises (CPSEs). We looked at the financial performance of the CPSEs and indicators like the profit/loss, net worth, contribution to the central exchequer, foreign exchange earnings, and financial investments in CPSEs. In this second part, we focus on human resources in terms of aspects like the personnel strength, caste-wise representation of the personnel, and yearly trend of the human resources among other things.
Personnel Strength on a steady decline
Human resources play a crucial role in the efficient functioning of the CPSEs. However, the recent figures of the cumulative employee strength excluding the contract and the casual workers in all the CPSEs show a decline. There could be many reasons behind such decline – employees preferring other jobs, and internal restructuring among other things. While the reasons are not clear,  this decline in the workforce is a cause for concern, particularly because of the social relevance of the CPSEs.
Employment trend in top 12 CPSEs by share of employment
As mentioned earlier, one of the factors for attaching high social relevance to CPSEs is the sheer number of employment opportunities they provide for a diverse set of social groups. The decline is witnessed across CPSEs that have traditionally had high employee strength.
Employment trend in Top-12 CPSEs by market capitalization
Even if one looks at the top-10 CPSEs by market capitalization and their human resources, the trend is no different. Though these CPSEs are not necessarily the most employment-generating CPSEs, it can be observed that the employment in all these CPSEs except GAIL India Limited is on a constant decline.
An increasing share of SCs, STs, and OBCs cumulatively in total
We have earlier highlighted the social relevance of the CPSEs. One of the reasons for such high relevance is the reservation along caste groups in employment opportunities. This enables the candidates from those social groups to compete and secure employment, thereby gaining mobility. The composition of employees of these social groups accounted for 41.5% in March 2014, which further improved to 46.74% in 2017, and reached 50.13% in March 2021.
Caste groups at different levels of employment
Data indicates that there is an increase in the share of SCs, STs and OBCs in the overall cumulative personnel strength. To get a better idea of the dynamics behind such an increase, we further analysed the share of these groups at different levels of employment-Group A is managerial, Group B is supervisory, Group C is skilled workers and Group D is unskilled workers.
It is observed that for Group A, the share of SCs went from 5.4% in March 2014 to 7.1% in March 2021, while for STs, it went from 14.7% to 16.8% during the same period. However, for OBCs, the percentage rose from 12.8% to 21% during the same period. Similarly, for Group B, the share of SCs went from 14.9% in March 2014 to 17.9% in March 2021, while for STs, it went from 6.7% to 12.4%. For OBCs, the percentage rose from 13.5% to 23.5% during the same period. In Group C, SCs share fell from 20.2% in March 2014 to 18.8% in March 2021, while for STs, it rose from 10.3% to 11%. For OBCs, it increased from 16.9% to 25.5% during the same period. In Group D, the share of all social groups increased from March  2014 to March 2017. However, OBCs share fell from 21.8% to 18.2%, STs from 13.7% to 12.7%, and SCs from 20.21% to 14.9% from March  2017 to March  2021.
One can deduce that there is little improvement in SCs and STs categories, while the share of OBCs has considerably increased.
The share of women employees in CPSEs remains stagnant
It is widely acknowledged that having women in workplaces is vital for the success of organizations. Having greater gender diversity enables organizations to improve their governance and corporate values. Unfortunately, this does not seem to be the case with CPSEs. The share of women in the workforce has remained almost stagnant from 2012-13 to 2020-21. In 2012-13, it was 9.2%, which rose to 10.2% in 2016-17, the highest ever in the last decade. It again fell from 10.2% in 2016-17 to 9.4% in 2020-21. The share of women out of total employees at the managerial/executive level averages around 10%, at the supervisory level around 8%, and 9.5% at the worker level from 2012-13 to 2018-19.
Among cognate groups, Coal, Telecommunication & Information Technology and Heavy and Medium Engineering cognate groups employed the highest number of women as a percentage of their total employees in the year ending March 2021.
Per-Capita emoluments grew almost by 2.5 times during the last decade
As observed earlier, the total number of employees in the CPSEs has been decreasing considerably over the last few years. However, the capital emoluments per capita have been rising yearly. The total emoluments in 2009-10 were Rs. 87,792 Crore, which increased to Rs. 1,52,684 Crore in 2018-19. Similarly, the per capita emolument in 2009-10 was Rs. 5,89,210 which rose to Rs. 14,78,280 in 2018-19.
Featured Image: Permanent employee strength of CPSEs


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Data: PLFS migration report indicates that more than 70% in India migrate due to Marriage
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
July 1, 2022
Along with the annual PLFS to estimate key employment and unemployment indicators, the National Statistical Office released the ‘Migration in India (2020-21)’ report which contains estimates of indicators related to migration and temporary visitors. Data indicates that more than 70% migrate due to marriage while 87.5% migrate within the same state.
People move from one place to another in search of temporary or permanent settlements. Migration is considered the barometer of changing socio-economic and political conditions at the national and international levels. It is also an indicator of the existing inequalities and disparities in economic and social conditions across different places. The movement of people can be due to necessity or by choice. Various reasons like career growth, employment, the standard of living, marriage, climate change, calamities, conflicts, and human rights violations among others influence the movement of people. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic-induced movement restrictions resulted in unprecedented migration of workers and labourers back to their native places in rural areas of India.
‘Migration in India’ report was released for the first time along with the annual PLFS
Along with the annual Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) to estimate key employment and unemployment indicators in the country, the National Statistical Office released the ‘Migration in India (2020-21)’ report which contains estimates of indicators related to migration and temporary visitors. During the PLFS exercise, additional information was collected on migration particulars of household members and on the temporary visitors in the household who arrived after March 2020 and stayed in the household continuously for a period of 15 days to less than 6 months.
The PLFS report defines migrants as ‘those whose last usual place of residence is different from the present place of enumeration. Usual place of residence is the place (village/town) where the person stayed continuously for a period of 6 months or more or intends to stay for 6 months or more.’ Close to 1.14 lakh migrants were surveyed, 51.8% in rural areas and the rest from urban areas.
The migration rate of India was 28.9%
The migration rate for any category of person (e.g., rural or urban, male, or female) has been defined as the percentage of migrants belonging to that category of persons. According to the report, the migration rate across the country was 28.9% during the period from July 2020 to 2021, when the survey was conducted. This means that 28.9% of the total surveyed population were migrants.
The rate was 34.9% in urban areas and 26.5% in rural areas. Overall, the male migration rate was 10.7% and was 47.9% for females. While the migration rate for females in rural and urban areas was close, the migration rate in rural males was 5.9% while that in urban males was 22.5%.
87.5% of the migration was within the state
A significant share of migration took place within the same state. 92.6% of females and 65.6% of males had moved within the same state while 7.2% of females and 31.4% of males moved to another state. 2.9% of males and 0.2% of females had moved to another country. Overall, the intra-state migration was 87.5% and inter-state migration was 11.8%.
Internal migrants are those who migrated within the country. This can include those who moved within states and those who moved interstate. Internal migration can be classified into four categories based on origin and destination, rural to rural, rural to urban, urban to rural, and urban to urban. Among the internal migrants, 55% of the migration took place from rural to rural. Female migrants were the drivers of this trend. More than 63% of the female internal migrants moved from rural to rural, and only 18% of males contributed to this trend. A total of 10.2% of the internal migrants moved from urban to rural, including 20.8% of the males and 7.8% of the females.
On the other hand, 33.5% of the males, and 15.6% of the females had migrated from rural to urban. 27.6% of the male migrants had moved between urban areas, while only 13.2% of the females had moved between urban areas. Overall, 18.9% of the internal migrants had moved to urban areas from rural areas and 15.9% from urban areas.
7 out of 10 migrants moved due to marriage
Marriage was the prime reason behind migration for more than 71% of the migrants. 86.8% of females and 6.2% of males migrated for marriage. Migration of the earning member of family or parent was cited to be the reason by 9.2% of the migrants including 17.5% of males and 7.3% of females. A total of 4.8% migrated in search of employment or better employment opportunities while 4.4% migrated to take up employment. Reasons such as natural disasters, political problems, displacement due to development projects, health-related reasons, and retirement accounted for less than 1% each.
In rural areas, 0.8% migrated for health-related reasons while the same in urban areas was 0.6%. Marriage-related migration accounted for 84.4% among rural persons while it accounted for only 47.5% among urban persons. In all the other cases, the share of urban persons was higher than that of their rural counterparts.
The general trend indicates that the migration is more among rural males than urban males for all other reasons except employment and migration of earning members. That is, the share of urban males that migrated in search of employment or for employment was higher than the share of rural males. Likewise, the share of urban males migrating due to migration of earning member/parent was higher than the share of their rural counterparts. Similarly, among females, 93.8% of rural females migrated for marriage while the share among urban females was 69.5%. The share of females in urban areas was higher for employment-related migration.
India had a migrant population of 45.6 crores as per Census 2011, up from 31.4 crores in 2001
The decennial national level census is the only comprehensive source of migration data in India. It covers the entire population of the country, unlike the PLFS survey. The Census has a dedicated section on migration. The latest data available is that of Census 2011. Census for 2021 has not yet begun.
According to Census 2011, the total number of migrant persons in the country was 45.6 crores including 27.8 crores in rural areas and 17.8 crores in urban areas. The number of female migrants was 30.96 crores and the number of male migrants was 14.6 crores. As per Census 2001, the total number of migrants was around 31.4 crores.
The number of internal migrants was 45 crores in 2011 and 30.9 crores in 2001. Internal migrants constituted more than 98% of the migrants in both the censuses. Though the number of internal migrants has gone up by more than 45% in the decade, the pattern of movement has not changed. Intra-state migrants were 39.6 crores and 26.3 crores in 2011 and 2001 respectively. Intra-state migrants accounted for 86.8% of the total migrants in 2011 and 83.7% in 2001. Inter-state migrants accounted for 11.8% in 2011 and 13% in 2001. According to the PLFS migration report, intra-state migration was 87.5% and inter-state migration was 11.8%, close to what the Census 2011 data revealed.
As seen above, the majority of internal migrants in India are short-distance intra-state migrants. The share of long-distance inter-state migration in India is considerably less as compared to other developing countries like Brazil and China. According to a 2015 research paper published in Wiley, a low rate of inter-state migration is an indicator of the non-uniform allocation of human resources. This is attributed to the non-portability of entitlements like the Public Distribution System), preferential norms in educational institutions, and domicile requirements for state government jobs. Further, intra-state migration is also an indicator of how development is confined to certain parts of the state.
Featured Image: Migration in India


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POCSO cases increased by 30% in 5 years while pendency rate in Courts crossed 94%
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
June 14, 2022
The alleged rape of a minor in Hyderabad has once again put the spotlight on the cases registered under the POCSO act. Data from the NCRB indicates that while the number of cases registered under POCSO increased by more than 30% between 2016 & 2020, the pendency of these cases in courts crossed 94% by the end of 2020.
Incidents of sexual assault & sexual crimes against children or minors are reported regularly from across the country. Being a country with over 44 crore children, child sexual abuse continues to be a serious and widespread issue in India. Studies have highlighted how the trauma of victims of child sexual abuse leads to a host of psychological and emotional disorders which they may never overcome, resulting in poor overall development. Children and parents may even refrain from reporting such incidents due to fear of indignity, social stigma, communication gap between child and parents, community denial, lengthy legal procedures, and other reasons, and suffer in silence.
In 2012, to deal with child sexual abuse cases, the Government of India passed a special gender-neutral law- the Protection of Children from Sexual Offences (POCSO) Act, 2012 which came into force with effect from 14 November 2012 along with the rules framed under the act. The Act is a comprehensive law which provides for the protection of all children aged below 18 years irrespective of gender, from the offences of sexual assault, sexual harassment, and pornography. It aims to safeguard the interests of the child at every stage of the judicial process by incorporating child-friendly mechanisms for reporting, recording of evidence, investigation, and speedy trial of offences through designated Special Courts. Stringent punishment is based on the gravity of offence with a maximum term of rigorous imprisonment for life and a fine has been prescribed in the act.
NCRB report provides data on cases reported under different sections of POCSO
The National Crime Records Bureau’s (NCRB) annual Crime in India report provides statistics pertaining to the cases booked under the different sections of the POCSO Act, 2012. These are:
The latest NCRB data available is for 2020. Since 2017, offences under Sections 17 to 22 of the POCSO Act, and the POCSO Act read with Section 377 IPC have been included under separate heads in the NCRB report. Prior to this, unnatural offences against children were reported separately as IPC crimes and not included under POCSO Act. The report also presented data based on the child victim’s sex since 2017.
In 2019 and 2020, an average of 129 cases were reported under POCSO daily
NCRB started recording the cases under POCSO Act, 2012 only since 2014. According to the NCRB data, the number of POCSO cases increased by more than 30% between 2016 & 2020. In 2019 and 2020, more than 47,000 cases each were reported under this act. This translates to a daily average of 129 cases reported under POCSO. Between 2017 and 2020 for which data is available, girls constituted 97.1% to 97.6% of the victims each year while boys constituted the remaining 2.3% to 2.8%.
As is the case with other crimes, since the NCRB reports only those cases for which FIRs have been filed, the official numbers represent only a portion of the real figures.
90% of cases under POCSO are that of ‘rape’ and ‘sexual assault’
Among the different offences reported under POCSO Act, cases reported under Sections 4 & 6 (rape) constituted around 54% each year between 2016 and 2019. The share of cases of rape increased to 59.4% in 2020. 99% of the victims of rape in each of these years were girls.
The number of cases reported under Sections 4 & 6 was more than 28,000 in 2020, the highest reported under POCSO to date. The number has increased by nearly 60% since 2017.
Unlike in the cases of rape, the number of cases registered under Sections 8 & 10 (sexual assault), Section 12 (sexual harassment), and Sections 14 & 15 (use of a child for pornographic content) increased gradually increased until 2019 and fell in 2020.  Cases of sexual assault constituted around one-third of the total cases under the POCSO Act and together with cases of rape, constitute around 90% of the cases in each of the years.
Between 2017 and 2020 for which data is available, over 2,592 cases were reported under the POCSO Act to read with Section 377 IPC (unnatural offences), of which 90% of victims (2,341) cases were boys.
More than 94% of the cases under POCSO are pending with the Courts
A Chargesheet is prepared by police as a final report naming the accused persons against whom charges can be framed. In other terms, it is an indicator of the disposal of crimes by the police. The charge sheeting rate of cases under POCSO by police was 94.2% in 2016, which increased to 94.7% by 2020. The pendency rate of POCSO cases with the police has decreased from 31.8% in 2016 to 28.8% in 2020.
On the other hand, the conviction rate is an indicator of the disposal of cases by courts and is defined as the share of convicted cases out of the total cases in which the trial was complete. Over the years, there has been a significant increase in the conviction rate, from 29.6% in 2016 to 39.6% in 2020. But the pendency of cases in the courts was 94.7% by the end of 2020, up from 88.8% by the end of 2019.
Such high pendency continues to exist despite setting up fast-track courts exclusively for expeditious trials relating to POCSO. According to a response in the Lok Sabha in March 2022, over 2.26 lakh cases registered under POCSO Act were pending in POCSO Courts as of 31 January 2022. In the same response, the Ministry of Law and Justice added that the government had rolled out a scheme to set up 1,023 Fast Track Special Courts, including 389 exclusive POCSO (ePOCSO) Courts in 31 states and UTs to accelerate the trial and disposal of cases concerning rape and those registered under POCSO.
Police disposal of cases of rape and assault under POCSO is faster than IPC crimes against women
According to the 2020 NCRB report, the charge sheeting rate in cases of rape against women, and that under POCSO was 82.2% and 96.3% respectively. The pendency of such cases with the police was 33.2% for cases of rape against women and 27.6% for rapes reported under the POCSO Act. Similarly, in cases of sexual assault, the charge sheeting under IPC for women and that under POCSO was 85.5% and 93.1%, respectively while the pendency was 28.7% for IPC cases of assault against women and 28.1% for that under POCSO. This indicates that the police disposal of cases under POCSO is slightly faster compared to the crimes against women.
At the same time, the court disposal of cases of rape shows that the conviction rate was 39.3% for crimes against women and 37.9% for cases under POCSO. The pendency for rape cases under IPC crimes against women and POCSO was 94.2% and 94.4% respectively indicating that there was not much difference in the pendency of cases.
Speedy justice for child victims of sexual abuse is necessary for the children to overcome the trauma. In fact, the POCSO act also mandates the designation of special courts. Despite a legislative mandate and designation of certain special courts, it is concerning to note that the pendency of these is still very high.
Featured Image: NCRB’s Crime in India Report


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Data: Prisons in India continue to be Overcrowded despite COVID-19
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
January 10, 2022
Multiple institutions including the Supreme Court, NHRC, the UN had called for decongestion of prisons, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as data indicates, prisons in India continued to be overcrowded by the end of 2020 with the trend of overcrowding continuing in certain states.
The problem of prison overcrowding attracted greater attention during the pandemic, even though the problem has been persistent around the world for many years. During the pandemic, prisons emerged as hotspots of infection. According to UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), as of May 2021, over 5.5 lakh prisoners in 122 countries had contracted the COVID-19 virus. Over 4,000 prison fatalities were also reported from 47 countries. The enforcement of COVID-19 prevention measures such as social distancing and maintaining hygiene are difficult in overcrowded prisons. To mitigate the spread of COVID-19, prisons resorted to limiting recreation, work opportunities and visitations which are vital for rehabilitation. Further, a few countries decided to release many persons who were held in custody such as convicts of non-violent offences, and remand prisoners. Since March 2020, about 7 lakh persons accounting for roughly 6% of the estimated global prison population, were authorized or considered eligible for temporary release in 119 countries.
SC issued directions to decongest the overcrowded prisons in India in wake of COVID-19
Taking cognizance of the potential risk, the Supreme Court in March 2020 issued several directions for decongestion of prisons including setting up of High Powered Committees in all states/UTs to determine which prisoners may be released on interim bail or parole, on the basis of the nature of offence, the number of years to which the prisoner had been sentenced, or the severity of the offence for which they have been charged. Various High Courts have also issued guidelines in this matter. According to a study that cites data from the Commonwealth Human Rights Initiative (CHRI), a total of 68,264 prisoners were released on interim bail across the country until 14 December 2020 as per the guidelines of the Committees. However, the number cannot be considered final as the period of data compiled from different states is not uniform. CHRI’s recent update also states that though many prisoners were released by June 2020, they were all recalled by December 2020. In other words, there was very little if not no impact on overcrowding. This was also because of a greater number of arrests in 2020 compared to 2019.
Prison Statistics India 2020 report was released recently
Recently, the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) released the annual Prisons Statistics India (PSI) for 2020 which provides comprehensive statistical information on various aspects of prison administration in India. The report for the first time in 2020 included the Transgender category in the gender classification of prisoners. Additionally, the 2020 report also provides data of the NGOs working exclusively for the welfare of women prisoners.
Data from West Bengal for the year 2018 and 2019 was not received for the publication of Prison Statistics India 2018 & 2019 because of which the data for 2017 was used in both 2018 & 2019. However, this year, West Bengal has furnished data for 2018, 2019, and 2020. The data for 2018 & 2019 has been factored in this year’s publication.
Prison Occupancy rate still at 118 by the end of 2020
According to the latest publication, as of 31 December 2020, there were 4.89 lakh persons lodged in 1,306 prisons across the country. The actual capacity of these prisons was 4.14 lakh persons. In other words, there were 4.89 lakh persons in the prisons in the country which can accommodate only 4.14 lakh persons.
The occupancy rate of the prisons in India is calculated as the percentage of the ratio of inmate population to total capacity in prisons. An occupancy rate of more than 100% implies that the prisons are overcrowded and if it is below 100%, it means that the prisons are not yet filled to their capacity. By the end of 2020, the occupancy rate of the prisons in the country was 118%. That is, despite the measures taken during the pandemic, the prisons continued to be overcrowded in the country. Further, overcrowding is a bigger problem for male prisoners since the occupancy rate of male prisoners was 121.3% while that of women was only 72.2%.
Indian prisons have been overcrowded for many years now. In the last decade, the overall occupancy rate was the lowest in 2011 when it was 112.1% and the highest in 2019 when the occupancy rate crossed 120% for the first time since 2011. In 2020, the occupancy dropped by 1.9 percentage points as compared to 2019. Throughout the decade, the occupancy rate has been above 112%. Contrary to expectation, overcrowding did not reduce in 2020 as the released prisoners were recalled by the end of 2020, CHRI noted in its latest report.
The capacity of Indian prisons not increasing on par with the increase in the inmate population
Between 2011 and 2020, the capacity of Indian prisons has gone up by 24.4% from 3.33 lakhs to 4.14 lakhs. During the same period, the population of inmates has gone up by 31% from 3.73 lakhs in 2011 to 4.89 lakhs in 2020. In other words, as against the increase in prison capacity by 24.4%, the prison population increased by a greater percentage.
During the previous decade, the capacity has increased to accommodate another 81,251 persons while the population of inmates has gone up by approximately 1.16 lakhs, which increased the occupancy rate. The total capacity of prisons crossed 4 lakh persons only in 2019 while the number of inmates has been more than 4 Lakhs since 2013.
UP had the highest occupancy rate of 177% in 2020 while TN had only 60.6%
As of 31 December 2020, the occupancy rate of prisons across states varied from 177% in Uttar Pradesh to 27% in Nagaland. The prisons in 17 states/UTs were overcrowded by the end of 2020, down from 19 states/UTs in 2019. Of the 17 states/UTs where the occupancy rate was above 100%, the occupancy rate was above the national occupancy rate of 118% in 11 of the states/UTs including Uttar Pradesh, Sikkim, Uttarakhand, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Meghalaya, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and West Bengal. Among large states, Tamil Nadu had the lowest occupancy rate of 60.6%. Manipur, Tripura, and Nagaland had below 50% occupancy. The occupancy rate was below 100% in 18 states/UTs including each of the south Indian states, Rajasthan, Punjab, and Haryana.
Among large states, only AP, TN, Odisha, & Telangana were not overcrowded throughout the decade
The trend in occupancy rates between 2011 and 2020 across states reveals the following:
Majority Undertrials & understaffing continue even in 2020
About 76.1% of the inmate population, nearly 3.72 lakhs, were undertrials as of 31 December 2020. Convicts and detenues constituted 23% and 0.7% respectively. The share of undertrials was 65% in 2011 and has remained below 70% throughout the decade. Among the states, as per the 2020 report, about 91% of the persons lodged in prisons in Delhi and Jammu & Kashmir were undertrials, while the share was above 80% in Bihar, Maharashtra, and Haryana, among other states/UTs, despite overcrowding in those states.
Understaffing of prisons continues to be a major problem. The actual strength of prison staff in the country was 61,296 as of 31 December 2020 against the sanctioned strength of 87,961. In other words, prisons were working with only 70% of the sanctioned staff strength despite an increasing problem of overcrowding.
Overcrowding needs to be addressed urgently
During the COVID-19 pandemic, though organizations like the UN and National Human Rights Commission, called for decongestion of prisons, it is seen that most states continue to have overcrowded prisons. Though prisons are supposed to reform and rehabilitate the offenders, the issues of overcrowding, understaffing, and insufficient funds which continue to plague the prisons in India, affecting their ability to function as reformation centres.
It is true that the issue of overcrowding is not new and not restricted to India alone. However, these issues assume greater importance amidst the COVID-19 pandemic as prison inmates are one of the most vulnerable groups. It is time the governments take immediate notice & take steps to reduce overcrowding.
Featured Image: Prisons in India during COVID-19

created: January 10, 2022


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Data: Progress made in the last two decades in combating HIV threatens to be disrupted by COVID-19
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
July 26, 2021
In the last two decades, significant progress has been made around the world in combating the deadly HIV AIDS both in terms of new infections & deaths. The number of new infections & deaths among Children in the 0-19 age group has reduced by 2/3rd between 2000 and 2020.
The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) continues to be a major public health issue at the global level. About 36.3 million lives have been claimed by the virus, so far. Infants, children, and adolescents have all been victims of the virus since there isn’t any cure for the disease caused that targets the immune system.
Effective HIV prevention, diagnosis, treatment, and care are pivotal in reducing the spread of the disease and enabling the persons living with HIV to lead a long life. One of the targets of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) is to end the HIV AIDS epidemic by 2030. Like in the case of other healthcare issues, the COVID-19 pandemic poses a threat to the decades of progress made in HIV prevention.
In this story, we focus on HIV among children and the progress made in its treatment and spread over the years. Data has been compiled from the UNICEF’s HIV Estimates for children dashboard which is based on estimates made by UNAIDS which in turn is sourced from the data uploaded by countries every year. The data is used for policy formulation to combat HIV both at the global & national levels. In this story, an adolescent is considered a person between 10–19 years old and a child is a person younger than 10 years old, unless otherwise mentioned.
2.78 million Children were estimated to be living with HIV in 2020
Nearly 38 million people were living with HIV worldwide as per the 2020 estimates. Of these, about 2.78 million were children aged 0 to 19 years, accounting for 7% of the total. Of the 2.78 million children living with HIV in 2020, nearly 1.03 million were children and around 90% of them lived in sub-Saharan Africa. Adolescents constituted the remaining 1.75 million.
At the beginning of this millennium, over 3.16 million children (0 to 19 years old) were living with HIV. The number increased to 3.6 million between 2007 to 2009. However, there has been a significant reduction in the number since then with the least number with 2.78 million reported in 2020, the lowest in these 20 years. In other words, the number decreased by around 12% in the last 20 years.
The number of children aged 0 to 9 years living with HIV, where the infection was mainly caused through mother-to-child transmission, has dropped from 1.88 million in 2000 to around a million in 2020, recording a 45% drop. However, the cases among adolescents have gone up in 2020 as compared to 2000. Around 1.28 million adolescents were living with HIV in 2000, which increased to over 1.84 million children between 2014 and 2016 and has since dropped to 1.75 million in 2020.
An average of 850 children were newly infected per day in 2020
It has been estimated that an average of 850 children aged 0 to 19 years were newly infected per day with HIV in 2020. On the other hand, an average of 330 children (0 to 19 years old) lost their lives to HIV-related causes, per day in 2020. This has been attributed to the lack of access to adequate HIV prevention, care, and treatment services.
The number of new HIV infections reported annually among children has reduced by 66% over the last two decades. In 2000, nearly 0.89 million new infections were reported which has now reduced to 0.3 million in 2020. Further, the reduction is different among the two age groups considered. New infections in the 0-9 age group children dropped from 0.52 million in 2000 to 0.15 million in 2020 (by more than 70%) while that among the adolescents dropped from 0.37 million in 2000 to 0.15 million in 2020 (by nearly 60%).
One of the targets countries globally was to reduce new child (aged 0–14 years) HIV infections to less than 40,000 by 2018 and to 20,000 by 2020 so that children can start their lives HIV-free. However, children aged 0-9 years alone accounted for 50% of the 0.3 million new cases reported in 2020 which by itself is almost four times the 2018 target and 9 times of the 2020 target.
Deaths among children have reduced but that among adolescents continue to remain the same
Since their immunity is affected, children are more vulnerable to diseases like HIV, Tuberculosis, and staphylococcal and pneumococcal infections. In 2020 alone, about 116,000 children (0 to 19 age group) lost their lives due to HIV-related causes. In the last 20 years, the most deaths were in 2004 with over 371,000. Since then, the total number of deaths in the 0-19 age group reduced by 69%.
Among children aged 0 to 9 years, the number of deaths has dropped from 333,000 deaths in 2001 to around 84,000 in 2020, marking a reduction by 75%. However, among adolescents aged between 10 to 19 years, the number of deaths increased from 23,000 in 2000 to 52,000 in 2008 and reduced subsequently to 32,000, in 2020. The data indicates that the efforts in early childhood survival have been fairly effective.
Antiretroviral drugs are used in the treatment of HIV infection but do not cure the disease
Among newborns, the prime cause of HIV infection is the transmission from the mother. Identification of infection and timely use of effective interventions and treatment helps prevent the transmission. Antiretroviral drugs, ARVs in short, refer to the medicines that are used to treat HIV. These drugs are mainly administered to mothers or infants to prevent mother-to-child transmission. Lifelong treatment using a combination of 3 or more ARV drugs for the treatment of HIV infection is referred to as antiretroviral therapy, abbreviated as ART.
More pregnant women are now covered under ART reducing infection among infants
The ‘Global Plan towards the Elimination of New HIV Infections among Children and Keeping their Mothers Alive’ was introduced in 2011 to bring down the mother-to-child transmission of HIV. There has been significant progress in this endeavour since the number of children with HIV below 5 years of age has reduced to half from 0.32 million cases in 2010 to 0.16 million cases in 2020. This is due to the increased coverage of pregnant women under treatment for HIV. Data indicates that the percentage of pregnant women under ARVs has increased from 44.7% in 2010 (0.6 million) to 84.8% (1.1 million) in 2020. On the other hand, 17.3% of pregnant women (0.24 million) were under lifelong ARTs in 2010 which has increased to 84.7% (1.1 million) in 2020. Since the introduction of the ‘prevention of mother-to-child transmission programmes’, 1.2 million deaths and 2.5 million HIV infections have been prevented among children.
However, regional disparities exist in access to drugs and treatments. For instance, access to ARV medicines for pregnant women ranges from 95% in Eastern and Southern Africa to 41% in the Middle East and North Africa.
Only about half the children below 15 years receiving treatment for HIV
The estimated number of children under the age of 15 years living with HIV has reduced from 2.53 million in 2010 to 1.72 million in 2020. While the number of children living with HIV has reduced over the decade, the number of children receiving ART has gone up from about 0.42 million in 2010 (16.5% of infected children) to 0.92 million children (53.8%) in 2020 indicating progress in treatment among children. However, despite the progress, only about half the children living with HIV are receiving treatment, which is a cause for concern.
About 79,000 children were living with HIV in India in 2019
In India, according to the latest India HIV Estimation 2019 report, there were an estimated 2.35 million persons living with HIV in 2019. Children (those aged below 15 years) living with HIV comprised 3.4% of the total which is around 79,000. Since 2010, the number of new HIV infections in India declined by 66.1%, and deaths dropped by 65.3%.
COVID-19 might impede the progress made over the years
While the numbers indicate significant progress over the last two decades, public health experts around the world fear that COVID-19 might aggravate the situation and impede the progress made. People living with HIV experience more severe outcomes and have higher comorbidities from COVID-19 as their immune systems are already compromised. Furthermore, COVID-19 lockdowns and other restrictions may have disrupted HIV testing, diagnoses, and access to hospitals for drugs and HIV treatment. As in the case of routine immunization and other chronic diseases, the need of the hour is to put in place a robust system to ensure little or no disruption because of COVID-19.
Featured Image: COVID-19 impact on combating HIV AIDS


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QES for Q3 reveals that there are more self-employed females than males in Financial Services sector
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
May 5, 2022
The third edition of the Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) for the period October to December 2021 was released recently by the government. While the total employment increased by 4.5 lakhs compared to the previous quarter, data indicated a fall in the share of regular employees. Financial services is the only sector in which there are more self-employed females than males.
The Ministry of Labour & Employment recently released the report of the third edition of Quarterly Employment Survey (QES) for the period October to December 2021. This report is part of the ‘All-India Quarterly Establishment-based Employment Survey (AQEES)’ conducted by the Labour Bureau. The current report is the third in the series.
About the AQEES
The first publication covering the first quarter of 2021-22, was published in September 2021 and the second publication covering the second quarter was published in January 2022. The aim of AQEES is to provide quarterly updates about employment vacancies, training, and other related parameters for selected nine (9) sectors of the non-farm economy over successive quarters. The nine (9) sectors which account for a substantial share of the total employment in the non-farm establishments in the country are- Manufacturing, Construction, Trade, Transport, Education, Health, Accommodation & Restaurants, Information Technology (IT) & Business Process Outsourcing (BPO), and Financial Services.
The selected nine sectors account for around 85% of the total employment in units with 10 or more workers as per the 6 Economic Census. For this survey, around 12,000 units were targeted to be covered from those establishments employing 10 or more workers in the organised sector from these 9 sectors. These were selected from the Directory of Establishments in the Sixth Economic Census. Units established after 2013-2014 are not included in the survey.
A schedule that contains details pertaining to identification, establishment particulars, employment with the breakup of characteristics such as gender, type, and nature along with vacancy details, skill development program conducted, on-the-job training provided by establishments and others has been used for the survey. Detailed information on the methodology and limitations of the survey was published by Factly earlier.
75% of the units covered are from 4 sectors- Manufacturing, Trade, Education, & Accommodation
For QES-3, a total of 11,612 establishments were visited of which 778 units were found either closed or non-existing on the date of the survey. Information was collected only from 10,834 units belonging to one of these nine sectors, including 49 establishments from outside the coverage of the survey.
A total of 10,867 units were covered in the first round and 11,503 units were covered in the second round. The sector-wise number of units covered in each quarter is provided in the following table. Among the various sectors covered, the highest number of sample establishments were from the manufacturing sector, followed by Trade, Education, and Accommodation & Restaurants. These four sectors alone accounted for 75% of the units visited for the survey.
The estimated total employment has increased by 4.5 lakhs in Q3 compared to Q2
The estimated total employment in the nine selected sectors was 3.145 crores in the third quarter of 2021-22. This is about 4.5 lakhs more than in the second quarter with 3.1 crores estimated employment and about 6.5 lakh more than in the first quarter which was 3.08 crores. According to the Sixth Economic Census (2013-14), the total employment for these 9 sectors was reported as 2.37 crores.
The minister of Labour and Employment tweeted that ‘the report on 3rd Round (Oct–Dec, 2021) of Quarterly Employment Survey shows a rising trend in employment in organised sector, employing 10 or more workers, of the selected 9 sectors.’ This report comes at a time when the issue of unemployment is being discussed widely in the country.
The share of non-profit institutions in the health and education sectors has increased
Based on ownership, almost 30% of the establishments were proprietary establishments and 21.5% were private limited companies. Compared to the previous quarters, the share of private limited companies has dropped from 24.8%. Government/PSUs account for 20.5% and non-profit institutions account for about 11.7%. The share of partnerships is below 10% while that of cooperatives, and others including SHGs is below 5% each.
Further, about 83.5% of the establishments in the IT/BPO sector were private limited companies. The share of proprietary establishments in this sector has dropped from more than 13% in the first quarter to 11.7% in the third quarter. On the other hand, the share of partnership establishments in the sector has gone up from 1.8% to 3.4% in the same period.
The share of private limited companies in the construction sector has come down from 56.3% in Q1 to 47.4% in Q3 while the share of non-profit institutions in the education sector has gone up from 23.8% to 31.5% during the same period. In the health sector, the share of non-profit institutions has increased from 12.1% to 15.6%. There were no such establishments in Construction and Transport sectors.  61.4% of the establishments in Accommodation & Restaurants, 50.7% in Trade, and 43% in Manufacturing had Proprietary ownership.
The manufacturing sector continues to account for the largest share of employment
The manufacturing sector continues to account for the largest share of estimated employment in the select 9 sectors with 39.4%. This is followed by education with 22% and 11% in the IT/BPO sector. The share of employment in the IT/BPO sector has increased from 6.7% in Q1 to 11% in Q3 while that in the Construction sector has dropped from 2.4% to 2% and in trade from 6.6% to 5.3% during the same period.
Share of women has dropped marginally
Contrary to the trend recorded in the previous quarter, the percentage of women employed in the organized sector has dropped from 32.1% in Q2 to 31.6% in Q3. This is in line with the share of female workers recorded in the Sixth Economic Census (31%). In the first quarter, their share was lower than that recorded in the 2013-14 survey.
Share of self-employed females is more than that of males in financial sector
The share of self-employed workers has increased from 1.6% in the first quarter to 1.9% in the second quarter and further to 2.1% in the third quarter. The remaining 97.9% were employees. Self-employment was the highest in financial services with 9.25%. Financial Services is the only sector where there were more self-employed females than males. There were only 0.1% of self-employed females in the IT/BPO sector. Among the employees, the share of females was higher than that of their male counterparts in the health sector with 51%. The share of female employees was also more than 30% in the sectors of Education (43.8%), IT/BPO (38.7%), and Financial Services (33.8%).
Contractual and fixed-term employment has increased while regular employment has dropped
Based on the terms of employment, employees have been categorized into 4- regular employees, contractual employees, fixed-term employees, and casual employees. The share of regular employees has come down from 87.5% in Q1 to 85.3% in Q3. Meanwhile, the share of contractual employees has increased from 7.8% to 8.9% during the same period. The share of fixed-term employees has increased from 0.6% in Q2 to 1.55% in Q3.
Each of the sectors except Construction had more than 80% regular employees. The share of regular employees is more than 90% in the transport and education sector. In Q1 and Q2, the share of regular employees was the highest in the IT/BPO sector with about 98%.  However, in Q3, this has dropped to 86.3%. Instead, the share of contractual and fixed-term employees has increased in the sector from less than 1% in Q1 to 5.7% in Q2 and to 7.9% in Q3. The share of contractual employees has increased across all sectors except in transport and education. The share of contractual employment in health has increased from 2.9% to 9.4% between Q1 and Q3. During the same period, the share of casual employees dropped from 12.5% to 6.16% in the construction sector.
1.85 lakh vacancies have been reported of which 90% are in the manufacturing, health, and education sectors
Across 7 sectors, excluding health and education, there were 68.8 lakh workers who were at least graduates, 67.5 lakh who matriculated but undergraduate level and 70.9 lakh who were Matric/ Secondary or below. Among the graduates, more than 25 lakhs were in the manufacturing sector and about 26.5 lakhs in the IT/BPO sector. The education level for 5.1 lakh workers could not be ascertained. In the health and education sectors, more than 10 lakh persons were at least graduates among non-clinical and non-teaching staff. Overall, 23.5% of the units provided on-the-job training to workers. The number was 34.9% in the health sector units.
Over 1.85 lakh vacancies were reported by the 9 sectors with the manufacturing, health, and education sector accounting for more than 90% of these vacancies. Resignation was the reason behind 44% of the vacancies while retirement was the reason for over 12%. ‘Others’ has been cited as the reason behind the 43% of the vacancies making it difficult to ascertain the exact reason. While 86.5% of the vacancies were in the process of being filled up, about 4% of the vacancies remained because workers with requisite skills were unavailable.
Featured Image: Quarterly Employment Survey


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Quality of Education is prime reason behind students opting for Private educational institutions
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
September 24, 2020
The 75th round of the NSS focused on education related indicators. The survey report which was released recently indicated that more than 60% of the students are still studying in government educational institutions. However, this number is coming down. The survey also indicates that more than 30% of those opting for private education do so for ‘quality of education’.
The National Statistical Office under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI) recently released the report on Household Consumption on Education in India. The report is an outcome of the 75 round of National Sample Survey (NSS) conducted between July 2017 and June 2018. The survey gives primary data on different indicators relating to education such as level of education, attendance incentives received by students, and expenditure on education which helps in planning, decision making, policy formulation, and analysis.
For the 75 round of the survey, a sample of 64,519 rural households from 8,097 villages and 49,23 urban households from 6,188 blocks were covered across India. The survey gives both qualitative and quantitative information, covering students falling in the age bracket of three to thirty-five years who attend educational institutions at different levels from pre-primary to graduate level and beyond.
Around 3 students out of 5 students in classes I to XII, attended government schools
On the basis of management, three types of institutions have been considered- government, private aided, and private unaided. The report revealed that, except at the pre-primary level of education, majority of the students who were undergoing formal education attended government run educational institutions. At the pre-primary level, about 55% of the students went to private unaided institutions while less than one-third attended government institutions.
At least 60% of the students in classes I to XII went to government schools as per the NSS DATA. At the same time, as per UDISE’s data, there are 10.83 Lakh government schools in India, accounting for 70% of the schools in the country. Around 21% are private and about 5% are private aided schools.
At the ‘diploma or certificate below graduate level’, the percentage of students going to private unaided institutions was more than 30%.
Greater share of students in rural areas went to government educational institutions
A greater share of students in the rural parts of the country went to government run educational institutions as compared to their urban counterparts. According to the survey, 44.2% of the students at pre-primary level, 73.7% at primary level, 76.1% at upper primary/middle level, 68% at secondary & higher secondary level and 49.7% at graduate and above level went to government-run institutions in the rural areas. At the same time, only 13.9% at pre-primary level, 30.9% at primary level, 38% at upper primary level, 38.9% at secondary and higher secondary levels, and 41% at graduate and above levels went to government run institutions in the urban areas.
Students attending government institutions has dropped over the last ten years
Compared to the earlier rounds of the survey (71st round in 2014), there has been a drastic fall in the proportion of students at primary, upper primary, and secondary and higher secondary levels attending government schools in urban areas. At the primary level, it fell from 39.6% attending government schools in 2007-08 to 30.9% in 2017-18. Similarly, the percentage has dropped from 44.2% to 38% at upper primary level and 45.2% to 38.9% at secondary and higher secondary level in urban India.
The survey also estimated that around 36.4 lakh students had shifted from government to private institutions in the past one year while 32.4 lakh shifted from private to government institutions. Students, who at the time of survey attended private institutions- both aided and unaided, were asked the reason behind opting for the same instead of government institution.
Quality of education was the most popular reason for choosing private institutions
It is observed that quality of education was cited as the reason by most students for opting private institutions. This reason was cited by more than 38% of the students in rural areas and nearly 30% in urban areas. It was perceived by majority that the quality of education was better in private institutions and unsatisfactory in nearby government institutions. Location of the institution closer home was the reason given by more than 28% of female students in urban areas. Around 15% in rural areas and 19% in urban areas also cited English medium as the reason for choosing private institutions.
Availability of facilities such as AC classrooms, latest teaching aids, boarding and transportation facilities, laboratory, library, timings, extracurricular activities, and separate toilets for girls and boys was reported by over 15% students in urban areas.
Availability of facilities is better in aided schools than in government schools
Other reasons reported include social reasons such as relatives/friends studying in private school, lack of admission to government school, and private coaching. For instance, at the school level, only 95% of government schools have a separate washroom for girls. Only 62% of the government schools have libraries and 58% of the schools have playgrounds. Meanwhile, in aided schools, 97% have girls’ toilets, 65% have libraries, and 82% have playgrounds. It should be remembered that the survey included students from different levels of education, not only at the school level, which may have influenced the reasons.
Nonetheless, state wise differences also exist. In Bihar, more than 82% of the students go to government schools whereas in Uttar Pradesh, about 46% students went to private schools, as noted in the survey.
In classes XI and XII, there has been a shift towards English medium
The medium of instruction and language spoken at home for students across different levels of education has been studied in the report. The medium of instruction is the language of the study material like books and notes used in schools. Percentage of students whose medium of instruction was same as the language spoken at home was higher in primary, upper primary, and secondary level. It can be seen that there is a shift towards English at the higher secondary level, except in the case of Bengali. The overall percentage of those learning and speaking in Telugu, Malayalam, Tamil, Punjabi, and Kannada is lower than other languages like Hindi, Bengali and Odia.  In other words, of those who speak the respective languages of Hindi, Bengali & Odia, a greater share of students are learning in the same language than in English
For the rest of the languages mentioned above like Telugu, Malayalam, Tamil, Punjabi, and Kannada, a greater share of students went to English medium schools than the schools with local language as medium of instruction. Interestingly, at the pre-primary level as well, English medium was more common contrary to the common belief that education begins in the language spoken.
Around 60 to 80% of the students in government schools’ avail free education
Free education is when students do not any fee for their education. The proportion of students receiving free education is substantially higher in government educational institutions than in private aided and unaided institutions. Both in rural areas as well as urban areas, less than 10% of the students in private institutions got free education while in government schools, the percentage of students was in the range of 60-80% which may be attributed to the various welfare programs of the government. Similarly, education schemes for the girl child providing free education could also be the reason behind the overall trend. In rural areas, the percentage of female students who received free education was higher than male students.
Improving quality of education in the Government schools is the need of the hour
The survey once again highlights the need for improving quality of education in government schools since a large number of students still enrol in these schools and a substantial number are shifting to private schools because of this very reason.
Featured Image: Quality of Education

created: September 24, 2020


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Data: Quantity of Drugs Seized Increased in Last Few Years
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
August 29, 2023
The Standing Committee on Social Justice and Empowerment recently submitted a report titled, ‘Drug Abuse among Young Persons- Problems and Solutions’. The report notes the progress made over the years and makes multiple recommendations. Data from the government indicates that the quantity of drugs seized has increased in the last few years.
The Standing Committee on Social Justice and Empowerment recently submitted a report titled, ‘Drug Abuse among Young Persons- Problems and Solutions’.  The report is a timely one, given the extent of the drug menace in India. Owing to its proximity to major opium-producing regions of South-West and South-East Asia known as the ‘Golden Crescent’ and the ‘Golden Triangle’ respectively, India has become both a transit route as well as a destination for drug trafficking.
In today’s story, we look at the major findings and recommendations of the standing committee, along with some statistics on drug abuse in India.
All about drugs
Drugs can be broadly categorized based on the type and nature of the material. Some of the broad categories include Narcotic Drugs, Psychotropic substances, Precursor chemicals, Synthetic drugs, and Pharmaceuticals.
Existing legislative framework to prevent drug abuse.
India is a party to three significant United Nations Conventions, namely the Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs of 1961, the Convention on Psychotropic Substances of 1971, and the Convention against Illicit Traffic in Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances of 1988. In the year 1985, the Government of India enacted the Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances (NDPS) Act. This legislative measure was put in place to establish rigorous provisions facilitating the control and supervision of activities associated with narcotic drugs and psychotropic substances.
In a further display of commitment to address the multifaceted challenge of substance abuse, the Government released the National Policy on Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances (NDPS) in 2012. This policy document serves as a comprehensive manual for various stakeholders and articulates an array of responsibilities to be carried out by the Government in relation to the treatment, recovery, and societal reintegration of individuals grappling with drug dependency.
What is the status of drug enforcement operations?
The primary entity responsible for drug law enforcement matters in India is the Narcotics Control Bureau (NCB), operating under the jurisdiction of the Ministry of Home Affairs. Alongside the NCB, several other key agencies including the Directorate of Revenue Intelligence (DRI), Customs and General Excise authorities, Central Bureau of Narcotics (CBN), State Police units, and State Excise departments play a pivotal role in the enforcement landscape. State Police units account for the majority of drug seizures in India.
The data pertaining to drug seizures within India reveals a notable upward trend. This data encompasses drugs such as Opium, Heroin, Ganja, Hashish, Cocaine, Morphine, Methaqualone, and ATS (Amphetamine-Type Stimulants). Collectively, these substances account for around 60% of the drugs seized in India.  From the period spanning 1992 to 2015, an average of 1.2 lakh kilograms of drugs were apprehended in India annually. However, a significant upward trend is apparent in the subsequent years, spanning from 2016 to 2022, during which a staggering average of 5.1 lakh kilograms of narcotics were seized.
Moreover, the year 2021, post the COVID-19 pandemic, recorded the highest volume of drug seizures (8.3 lakh kilograms) in the past thirty years. This unprecedented surge in drug seizures was also a focal point in the Annual Report of the Narcotics Control Bureau (NCB) for the year 2021. The report highlighted the challenges faced by enforcement agencies, primarily attributable to drug traffickers resorting to unconventional methods such as couriers, parcels, and the utilization of the darknet for their drug trafficking activities. The records indicate a rise in drug seizures via parcels, with a remarkable 300% increase noted in 2020 when compared to 2019.
How prevalent is drug abuse in India?
To ascertain the prevalence of substance use disorders within the Indian population, the Ministry of Social Justice and Empowerment initiated a comprehensive National Survey on Extent and Pattern of Substance Use in India, to be conducted by the National Drug Dependence Treatment Centre (NDDTC), AIIMS. The NDDTC submitted its report in 2019. Notably, a similar survey was conducted back in 2004, Though both surveys differ in their methodology and hence are not comparable, they provide a bird’s-eye view of the growing drug abuse in India.
The report highlighted that Alcohol is the most common psychoactive substance used by Indians. After Alcohol, Cannabis and Opioids are the next commonly used substances in India. The data reveals that approximately 2.8% of the population, equivalent to around 3.1 crore individuals, reported the utilization of some form of cannabis product over the preceding year. About one out of every eleven cannabis users’ express dependence/addiction to cannabis.
The analysis also uncovers geographical variations concerning drug usage, with states such as Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Maharashtra, and Delhi exhibiting a higher prevalence of drug use.
Government’s actions to tackle drug menace.
To tackle the issue of drug dependency, the Government of India introduced a central sector scheme named, “Scheme of Assistance for Prevention of Alcoholism and Substance (Drugs) Abuse.” It was later merged with the National Action Plan for Drug Demand Reduction (NAPDDR) formulated for the period 2018-2025, based on the results of the survey held in 2018. Under this, financial assistance is provided to various Non-Governmental Organisations and project implementing agencies for treatment and rehabilitation, prevention, awareness, and capacity building among others.
Across the nation, a total of 535 de-addiction centres are operational. This comprises 350 Integrated Rehabilitation Centre for Addicts (IRCA), 53 Community-based Peer-led Intervention (CPLI) centres, 73 Outreach and Drop-In Centres (ODICs), along with 38 Addiction Treatment Facilities (ATFs).
The data of the number of beneficiaries under these schemes show that between 2016-17 and 2023-24, more than 13 lakh people have benefitted, with assistance to more than 3300 projects. A total of Rs. 626 Crores has been sanctioned under these schemes during this period.
On the prevention and awareness generation front, between 2018-19 and 2022-23, more than 7000 programmes have been conducted with over 5.8 lakh beneficiaries by the National Centre for Drug Abuse Prevention (NCDAP).  Regarding the creation of skilled human resource personnel to carry out activities under NAPDDR, between 2017-18 to 2021-22, a total of 6063 training programs have been conducted with more than 4.1 lakh beneficiaries.
In addition to this, the Ministry launched Nasha Mukt Bharat Abhiyaan (NMBA) in 272 identified vulnerable districts on 15 August 2020. The major focus under this would be youth and higher educational institutions. Through the various activities undertaken for the Abhiyaan, more than 10.5 crore people have been reached out so far in the identified districts, as per government data.
Observations and Recommendations
The committee finds that there is decent progress in meeting guidelines under various schemes. Yet, there is a scope for improvement, right from awareness generation to treatment and rehabilitation. The committee reiterated the need to have strict vigilance to control the drug trafficking. The committee also asked the Ministry to take measures and apprise the committee of the progress in achieving the set deadlines in regard to training, capacity building, preventive education, and awareness generation programmes.
Apart from them, below is the summary of the shortcomings and recommendations highlighted by the Standing Committee.


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Data: Quantum of Passengers Affected by Airline Delays & Cancellations Back to Pre-COVID Levels
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
February 16, 2024
The harsh weather in Delhi led to the cancellation of hundreds of flights in January 2024. Flight cancellations & delays pose a significant challenge for all those involved in the air transportation supply chain-passengers, airlines, airports, resulting in cascading effects. Data shows that the quantum of passengers affected by Flight delays & cancellations has reached pre-COVID levels.
Skies aren’t as friendly as they used to be: navigating them has turned into a rollercoaster ride for many. From unexpected delays to frustrating cancellations, this winter season has sent travel plans spiralling into chaos, leaving passengers stranded in departure lounges. The struggles faced by airlines have been amplified by harsh weather conditions, particularly in North India where a dense blanket of fog has engulfed the region. This has resulted in hundreds of flights being delayed and cancelled during January 2024, prompting the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) to issue a new SoP for tackling flight delays.
Flight delays pose a significant issue for all those involved in the air transportation supply chain-passengers, airlines, airports, and air navigation service providers are among those affected by these delays. These delays also result in substantial economic losses. Given the tightly scheduled nature of air travel, even minor disruptions in the system have the potential to cascade and impact numerous other flights.
In today’s story, we look at the statistics related to airline delays, cancellations, and compensations in India.
Passenger protection measures for flight disruptions
As passenger traffic continues to grow, it’s crucial for the Government to strengthen the safety and rights of air travellers during flight disruptions like denied boardings, cancellations, and delays. It is important to enhance passenger protection standards to empower travellers and create a level playing field for airlines. According to Civil Aviation Requirement Section 3, Series M, Part IV, airlines are required to report on cases of denied boarding, cancellations, and delays, along with the status on a monthly basis, to ensure transparency and accountability.
Below is the indicative chart of the protection measures for passengers in cases of flight disruptions.
2023 saw record compensation being paid for flight disruptions.
The data on passengers affected by flight disruptions indicate the growing trend in the passengers affected by these disruptions. In 2014, around 4.2 lakh passengers were affected, which consistently grew to a record 33.2 lakh in 2019. Due to the onset of the pandemic in 2020 and its associated travel restrictions, the number of passengers affected by flight disruptions reduced to 8 lakhs in 2020. Since 2020, there has again been a consistent increase in the affected passengers, reaching 25.8 lakh in 2023, the second highest in the last decade.
Similarly, the airlines provide compensation and facilities wherever mandated to cope with flight disruptions. It is observed that in 2023, approximately Rs. 46.5 Crore was paid, surpassing the previous record of Rs. 46.1 Crore in 2017. Like the passengers affected, there has been a consistent rise in the compensation paid post-pandemic.
Delays accounted for more than 80% of the flight disruptions.
Among the types of air transport disruptions, the data indicates that passengers affected by delays beyond 2 hours account for approximately 84% of the total passengers affected, followed by cancellations at 15% and denied boarding at 1%. Interestingly, in terms of compensation, delays beyond 2 hours accounted for 43% of the total compensation, followed by denied boarding at 37%, and cancellations at 20%.
The year-wise trend on the passengers affected by disruptions shows that, in 2023, 3.1 lakh passengers were affected by cancellations, and 22.5 lakh passengers were affected by delays beyond 2 hours- both recording the second highest in this decade, after the highest in 2019 at 6.7 lakh passengers and 26 lakh passengers respectively. However, in terms of compensation offered, 2023 recorded the highest levels for both cancellations and delays beyond 2 hours at Rs. 9.9 Crore and Rs. 26.5 Crore respectively, beating their previous best of Rs. 8.2 Crore and Rs. 21.5 Crore respectively in 2019.
On an average, one of out every three cancellations are due to weather conditions in the last three years
Flight cancellations, though infrequent and challenging to anticipate, carry significant consequences when they do happen. The specific factors influencing which flights get cancelled remain somewhat elusive and likely differ among airlines. Technical factors, commercial factors, operational factors, and weather conditions are some of the major driving forces of airline cancellations.
The data on reason-wise cancellation rates show that weather emerges as a prominent factor behind cancellations. Between 2015 and 2019, on average, one out of every four cancellations (25%) were due to weather. This rose to more than 33%, meaning one out of every three cancellations was due to weather between 2021 and 2023.
This is a telling reminder that air travel is extremely sensitive to weather conditions and that the associated climate change is going to disrupt air travel significantly in coming years.
January is the most affected month in terms of the cancellation rates.
Unfavourable weather conditions elevate the likelihood of cancellations, as poor weather diminishes airport capacities, leading to extensive delays and cancellations. Parameters such as visibility, temperature, and wind speed, along with external conditions such as rain, thunderstorms, and snow being important aspects behind the determination of cancellations.
The data on seasonality show that rainy and winter seasons are most affected by flight cancellations. It can be seen that during the monsoon season, in whichever year the season went well, the cancellation rates are higher. Among the winter season months, January stands out with consistent cancellation rates across the years.
(Note: In 2020 & 2021, owing to COVID-19-related first and second waves, large-scale airline cancellations were done.)

created: February 16, 2024