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Large Variation between states in the share of ‘Medically Certified Deaths’ due to various causes
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
June 9, 2022
Recently, the Annual Report on the Medical Certification of Cause of Death (MCCD), 2020 was released by the Office of the Registrar General & Census Commissioner, India (ORGI). According to the report, there were around 18.12 lakh medically certified deaths in 2020, which is about 22% of the estimated 81.16 lakhs deaths in 2020. Large Variation between states in the share of ‘Medically Certified Deaths’ due to various causes.
Recently, the Annual Report on the Medical Certification of Cause of Death (MCCD), 2020 was released by the Office of the Registrar General & Census Commissioner, India (ORGI). The report contains vital statistics on causes of death obtained through the Civil Registration System under the Registration of Births and Deaths Act, 1969. Data on medically certified causes of deaths received from each state/UT is compiled in the report. In the 2020 report, new codes to capture deaths due to COVID-19 have been introduced following ICMR’s recommendation.
State-wise data on medically certified deaths by age, sex, and cause of death in the calendar year are some of the important statistics in the report. Such data is important to monitor the health trends in the population. Further, periodic cause-specific mortality statistics are useful for administrators, policy planners, researchers, etc. for evidence-based decision-making in the domain of public health such as resource allocation, monitoring of indicators, and identifying the priorities for programs and other related activities while undertaking appropriate curative and preventive measures for various health problems.  Moreover, the data helps in the furtherance of medical research and identify areas for improving the methods of diagnosis and analysis.
Cause of death of only 22.5% out of 81.16 lakhs has been medically certified
According to the report, there were around 18.12 lakh deaths in 2020, including 11.6 lakh males and 6.52 lakh females, that were medically certified. The annual report on Vital Statistics of India based on the Civil Registration System (2020) reported that the total number of registered deaths at the national level was estimated at 81.16 lakhs in 2020. Excluding the figures of registered deaths from Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh, the total deaths registered was nearly 80.63 lakhs. However, out of these 80+ lakh deaths registered, only about 18.12 lakh deaths have been medically certified. In other words, the cause of death is medically certified in only 22.5% of deaths in 2020. This percentage varies from 3.4% in Bihar to 100% in Goa and Manipur.
However, the percentage of medically certified deaths as compared to the total number of registered deaths is the highest in 2020 in the last three decades. Over the years, there has only been a marginal improvement in the share of medically certified deaths- from 20% in 2011 to 22.5% in 2020.
9 leading causes of death, including COVID-19, accounted for nearly 90% of the medically certified deaths
In 2020, the nine leading cause groups of death together accounted for about 88.9% of all the medically certified deaths. These are- Diseases of the Circulatory System; Diseases of the Respiratory System; Codes for Special Purposes (COVID-19 deaths); Certain Infectious and Parasitic Diseases; Endocrine, Nutritional and Metabolic Diseases; Injury, Poisoning and Certain Other Consequences of External Causes; Neoplasms; Certain Conditions Originating in the Perinatal Period; and Symptoms, Sign and Abnormal Clinical & Laboratory Findings Not Elsewhere Classified.
The trend in the share of deaths due to leading causes seen above indicates that diseases of the circulatory system such as diseases of the pulmonary circulation and other forms of Heart Diseases, Hypertensive diseases, etc. are the cause of death in the majority of the certified deaths since 2000. It accounted for more than 30% of the medically certified deaths in each of the years since 2014.
Respiratory diseases such as pneumonia, bronchitis, asthma, etc. were the second leading cause in 2020. The share of deaths due to lung diseases has been on a rise since 2014. This is for the first time since 2000 that the share of deaths due to lung diseases has touched 10%. Prior to 2020, the share of deaths due to certain infectious and parasitic diseases was the second leading cause. However, in 2020, its share was the lowest in the last two decades with 7.1%, 2.7 percentage points lower than in 2019. Though it has been on a decline for decades, such a steep decline was not reported earlier.
Deaths due to COVID-19 accounted for 8.9% of the medically certified deaths in 2020. In 2020, the deaths due to circulatory diseases, respiratory diseases, and COVID-19 together accounted for 51%. That is, out of 100 medically certified deaths, 51 were caused by one of the three in the pandemic year of 2020.
Share of deaths due to certain conditions originating in the ‘Perinatal Period’ dropped by 1.3 percentage points in 2020 as compared to 2019, while that due to Neoplasms and Symptoms, Signs & Abnormal Clinical & Laboratory Findings N.E.C. dropped by 0.9 and 2.7 percentage points respectively in 2020.
The large variance between States in Medically certified deaths due to certain causes
In the following chart, data of the 10 states/UTs with the largest share of the medically certified cause of death is depicted. There are a few outliers in these trends in the last five years (2016 to 2020).
Deaths due to pneumonia increased in 2020
Apart from these, the share of deaths due to tuberculosis dropped from 28.5% to 23% between 2018 and 2020 while that due to septicaemia increased from 38% in 2016 to 49% in 2020, among deaths due to certain infectious diseases and parasites. The diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis was a cause of concern amidst the pandemic since unprecedented lockdowns and movement restrictions limited people’s access to healthcare. Moreover, higher vulnerability to infection in older people and those with comorbidities also made people hesitant to visit hospitals and clinics.
Under deaths due to respiratory diseases, the share of deaths due to pneumonia increased from 14.3% in 2019 to 22.5% in 2020 while that due to Asthma dropped from 8% in 2019 to 5.6% in 2020. COVID-19 is associated with lung damage, breathing problems and pneumonia.
While going through this data, one must keep in mind that this represents less than one-quarter of the estimated deaths in the country in 2020. These numbers are still not adequate to understand the underlying causes of death and for the government to take any corrective action. The large variation across states further reduces the reliability of the data. Efforts should be made to ensure that the share of MCCD reaches at least 50% in the near future.


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Data: Less Than 10% Population Multidimensionally Poor in 14 States
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
July 24, 2023
NITI Aayog recently released the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI): A Progress Review 2023. This report looks at India’s progress in reducing multidimensional poverty between NFHS-4 (2015-16) and NFHS-5 (2019-21). Data indicates that 14 States had less than 10% of its population living in multidimensional poverty compared to 7 states give years ago.
Income, per capita expenditure, and consumption were the factors that were generally considered to estimate poverty in the country. However, since NITI Aayog was constituted, the multi-dimensional character of poverty was considered after acknowledging the Global Multidimensional Poverty Index that captures overlapping deprivations in health, education, and living standards. In 2021, NITI Aayog released the National Multidimensional Poverty Index: Baseline Report 2021. The baseline report of India’s first-ever national MPI measure is based on the reference period of 2015-16 of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) (NFHS 4th round). Recently, the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI): A Progress Review 2023 based on NFHS 5 round (2019-21), was released which looks at India’s progress in reducing multidimensional poverty between NFHS-4 (2015-16) and NFHS-5 (2019-21).
12 indicators across health, education & standard of living dimensions are considered
NITI Aayog’s Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) is based on three dimensions — health, education, and standard of living — with each having a weightage of one-third in the index. These dimensions are further based on 12 segments — nutrition, child and adolescent mortality, maternal health, years of schooling, school attendance, cooking fuel, sanitation, drinking water, electricity, housing, assets, and bank accounts.
There are two indices used for arriving at the MPI Value. MPI is the product of the following two indices.
The National Multidimensional Poverty Index is key in assessing advancements towards target 1.2 of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) which aims at reducing “at least by half the proportion of men, women and children of all ages living in poverty in all its dimensions” by 2030.
Over 135 million people exited multidimensional poverty in the between 2015-16 & 2019-21
According to the latest report, India is on track to achieve this target. The number of “multidimensionally poor” individuals in India has reduced by 9.89% from 24.85% in 2015-16 to 14.96% in 2019-21. That is, the number of multidimensional poor individuals has come down from 1 in 4 individuals to nearly 1 in 7 individuals. In absolute figures, over 135 million people, or 13.5 crore individuals exited multidimensional poverty between 2015-16 and 2019-21.
The report also reveals that there is a huge disparity in the number of people in poverty in rural and urban areas. In rural areas, the share of individuals in multidimensional poverty dropped significantly from 32.59% in 2015-16 to 19.28% in 2019-21. The same declined in urban areas from 8.65% to 5.27%.
Among states, in these five years between the NFHS surveys, Bihar witnessed the fastest decline in the percentage of multidimensional poor from more than 51% to below 34%. Despite the steep decline, Bihar continues to have the highest share of a multidimensionally poor population for a state with every 1 in 3 persons in the said category. In fact, except for Bihar, no other state in India has more than one-third of its population living in multidimensional poverty.
Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh are the other two states with a fast reduction in MPI value. The proportion of multidimensional poor in Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh in NFHS-5 (2019-21) is 20.63% and 22.93% down from 36.57% and 37.68%, respectively during 2015-16.
In terms of number of MPI poor, Uttar Pradesh recorded the highest number of persons exiting multidimensional poverty in the last five years with 3.43 crore persons, followed by Bihar with 2.25 crore and Madhya Pradesh with 1.36 crore persons exiting multidimensional poverty. These 3 states account for more than 50% of those who exited multidimensional poverty during this period.
All South Indian states have less than 10% population in poverty
As far as other states are concerned, Goa & Kerala had only less than 1% of the population in multidimensional poverty. The number of states with less than 10% of people living in multidimensional poverty has doubled in the five-year period considered. According to the report, in 2015-16, only seven states had less than 10% of their population living in multidimensional poverty — Mizoram, Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Sikkim, Tamil Nadu, Goa, and Kerala. However, in 2019-21, a total of 14 states including Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Haryana, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Manipur, and Uttarakhand had less than 10% living in multidimensional poverty. All five South Indian states fall into this category.
All the 12 indicators have recorded an improvement
All 12 indicators across the three dimensions – Health, Education, and Standard of Living– saw improvement in the five years. A significant reduction in deprivations in sanitation (by 21.8 % points) and cooking fuel (by 14.6 % points) was observed during the period from 2015-16 to 2019-21. There has been considerable progress in nutrition, years of schooling, sanitation, and cooking fuel as evident in the graph below. Most of the indicators under Standard of Living are the ones that have significantly contributed to the decline in MPI despite further scope for improvement. That is, more than 40% are still deprived of cooking fuel and housing. Likewise, more than 30% are deprived of sanitation and nutrition. It should be noted that the indicators across health and education (child and adolescent mortality, maternal health, years of schooling, etc.) have not witnessed a notable improvement.
Targeted interventions and policies have been lauded for this progress
The report has attributed the improvement in MPI to the targeted policies, schemes, and developmental programmes of the governments at national and sub-national levels. The Government of India schemes such as Swachh Bharat Mission (SBM), Jal Jeevan Mission (JJM), Poshan Abhiyan, Samagra Shiksha, Pradhan Mantri Sahaj Bijli Har Ghar Yojana (Saubhagya), Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY), Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY), Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY) have contributed significantly to driving the progress, according to the report.
While the schemes for a better standard of living may have a wide reach in a numeric sense, it is to be seen if these are equally effective qualitatively. For instance, Factly’s story revealed that the average number of refills of cylinders under the PM Ujjwala Yojana is low. Further, focused interventions and increased budgets for improving the health and education of people are necessary as the improvement under these indicators was slow.
Global MPI report also corroborates the findings of the NITI Aayog report
The global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) with estimates for 110 countries was also released by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Oxford Poverty and Human Development Initiative (OPHI) at the University of Oxford a few weeks before NITI Aayog released India’s report. As per UNDP’s publication, India saw a remarkable reduction in poverty, with 415 million people exiting poverty within a span of 15 years from 2005-06 to 2019-21. As pointed out by NITI Aayog’s report, the Global Multidimensional Poverty Index report also reported that India’s progress towards SDG Target 1.2 is attainable since India halved its Global MPI well within 15 years. It also added that deprivation declined across all indicators in the country with the poorest states and groups, including children and people in disadvantaged caste groups, having the fastest absolute progress.
Nonetheless, nearly all the data considered in the UNDP report are from before the COVID-19 pandemic. The report calls for fully updated data from after the COVID-19 pandemic to understand if the trends in poverty reduction continue after the pandemic. Many studies flagged the reversing of decades of progress on poverty, healthcare, and education due to the pandemic. The UNDP report also emphasized how data on multidimensional poverty is left behind during this era of the “Data Revolution”.

source: news-factly

license: Creative Commons - Attribution - https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

author: Sai Krishna Muthyanolla


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Less than 25% of the population fully vaccinated in 10 States/UTs
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
November 9, 2021
Unlike in the other countries, the difference between the proportion of the population that received at least one dose and those that are fully vaccinated is large because of the 12 weeks gap between the two doses of Covishield. The latest data indicates that less than 25% of the population is fully vaccinated in 10 States/UTs of India.
In the earlier stories, we looked at the COVID-19 vaccination trends in some of the large & most affected countries across the world. As of 08 November 2021, India has administered 108.47 crore doses of the COVID-19 vaccine, second only to China. We had highlighted in the earlier stories that while India has so far administered the second-highest number of doses, the proportion of the population covered is less than some of the countries. In this story, we review the vaccination trends in India and take a closer look into the trends across states.
About the Data & Limitations: The population numbers considered for this story are the projected population as of October’2020, provided by the Government of India. Since state-wise adult population (18+) is not available, the percentages calculated in this story are based on the entire population though only adults (18+) are currently eligible for a COVID-19 vaccine in India.
Around a quarter of the Indian population is fully vaccinated
As per the data furnished by the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare (MOHFW), as of the morning of 08 November 2021, 74.03 crore persons have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. This accounts for around 54.5% of the total population of the country and 78.4% of the total adult population (18+).  On the other hand, 34.44 crore persons have received a second dose of vaccine and are fully vaccinated. This makes up around 25.5% of the total population in India and 36.5% of the total adult population (18+).
An average of 61% of the population received at least a single dose of vaccination in the Asia-Pacific region while around 44% on average have been fully vaccinated in the Asia-Pacific region. India is behind the region average on both counts.
On 18 September 2021, India administered a record 2.16 crore vaccine doses which is the highest single-day number of which 1.26 crore were first doses and the remaining second doses.
However, the number of persons receiving the first dose as well as the total number of doses administered per day has reduced since then. During the first half of October 2021, more than 50 lakh doses were administered per day. This reduced to less than 35 lakh doses per day in the first week of November 2021 and has further reduced after that indicating the impact of the festival season. The consistent trend that is observed since 15 October 2021 is the increase in the number of second doses administered per day compared to the first dose.
Less than 50% of the population in UP, Bihar & Jharkhand have received at least one dose
Uttar Pradesh has administered the highest number of vaccine doses with 13.31 crores, followed by Maharashtra at 9.91 crores and West Bengal with 8.08 crores.  Madhya Pradesh & Gujarat make up the top-5 with around 7.15 crores vaccination doses each.
Uttar Pradesh also leads in terms of absolute numbers of those who received at least one dose of vaccination as well those who are fully vaccinated.  Though 9.91 crores of its population received at least one dose of the vaccine, this accounts for only 42% of its 22.96 crore population. Maharashtra, which has the second-highest population in the country has managed to vaccinate around 54% of its population with at least one dose.
Apart from UP, Bihar & Jharkhand are the other larger states who have vaccinated less than half of their population with at least one dose. The 5.08 crore persons of Bihar who received at least one dose account for around 41% of its population. Jharkhand with a comparatively lower population of around 3.82 crores has managed to vaccinate only 39% of its population with at least one dose.
The Northeastern states of Manipur, Meghalaya & Nagaland have each vaccinated less than 40% of their population with at least one dose despite their lower population.  Among the states with at least 1 crore population, Kerala has managed to vaccinate nearly 72% of its 3.54 crore population with at least one dose, the highest among all such states.   Gujarat next in line among states with more than 1 crore population, in terms of the population, vaccinated with at least one dose
Less than 25% of the population is fully vaccinated in 10 States
In terms of absolute numbers, UP accounts for the most persons who are fully vaccinated with 3.39 crores. However, this is only 14.78% of its total population. Across all the States & UTs, UP has the least proportion of its population fully vaccinated. Jharkhand, which vaccinated only 39% of its population with at least one dose falls behind even in terms of fully vaccinated population. Only 15.6% of its population is fully vaccinated in Jharkhand. In the case of Bihar, the proportion of the population fully vaccinated is 16.3%.
Punjab, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, and Assam are the other large states who have fully vaccinated less than a quarter of their population. Despite their lower population, Manipur, Nagaland, and Meghalaya have fully vaccinated less than a quarter of their population.
Compared to the proportion of the population with at least one dose, Kerala lags in the proportion of the population who are fully vaccinated with only 40% of the population fully vaccinated. However, this is the highest proportion among all large states with more than a crore population, closely followed by Andhra Pradesh.  Gujarat, Delhi & Karnataka are the other large states which have fully vaccinated a higher percentage of their population compared to most of the other states.
While only 10 of 37 states/UTs have fully vaccinated a lesser proportion of the population than the national average, the population numbers of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal contributed to the lower national average.
In the last one month, the number of Second doses per day has overtaken first doses
As highlighted earlier in the story, there is a considerable fall in the number of doses administered per day after the record-breaking 17 September when over 2 crore doses were administered in a single day.
Unlike in the other major countries, the proportion of fully vaccinated population I.e., those who received both doses is much lower than those who have managed to receive at least one dose in India. Recent trends from the COWIN dashboard indicate that the number of second doses administered per day has consistently been more than the number of first doses in the last month or so.
This is a trend that was not observed earlier. The fall in the number of first doses is indicative of the fact that the government is prioritizing the second dose over the first dose. This is in the light of reports that 10 crore persons haven’t taken their second dose though they are due to take one.
While the prioritization of the second dose is understandable, the fall in the administration of first doses is concerning since a considerable section of the population is yet to receive at least one dose. If Children above the age of 12 years are also allowed to take the vaccine, this could further add to the existing burden.
Featured Image: Fully vaccinated population

created: November 9, 2021


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Less than 50% of Houses under PMAY (Urban) constructed by 2020-21
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
October 29, 2021
The Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY) envisions the provision of ‘Housing for All’ by 2022, when the Nation completes 75 years of its Independence. Data indicates that less than 50% of the Houses sanctioned under PMAY (Urban) were constructed by the end of 2020-21. In the case of PMAY (Gramin), the completion rate is more than 80%.
The Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana, abbreviated as PMAY, is an initiative of the Union Government under which affordable housing is to be provided to all the eligible beneficiaries in the country by providing subsidies and financial assistance, under the ‘Housing for All’ Mission. The original target was to construct 2 Crore houses with basic amenities. The scheme has two components.
In this story, we look at the progress in both these flagship schemes as the targets have been set to be achieved by next year (2022). We look at the overall and state-wise progress in the completion of construction of households and the allocation and release of central assistance for both these schemes.
40% of sanctioned houses were completed under PMAY-Urban by 2020-21
According to a parliament response in Lok Sabha from July 2021, the construction of a total of 45.7 lakh houses was complete under PMAY-U in the five-year period from 2016-17 to 2020-21 while over 1.12 crore houses were sanctioned for construction. Overall, about 40% of the sanctioned houses were completed under PMAY-U.
On the other hand, during the same period, construction of a total of 1.38 crore houses was complete under PMAY-G while over 1.99 crore houses were sanctioned. Over 69% of the sanctioned houses were complete under PMAY-G by the end of 2020-21.
11 states accounted for 86% of houses complete under PMAY-U
Of the 45.7 lakh houses constructed under PMAY-U, 7.84 lakh houses were completed in Uttar Pradesh and 5.53 lakh houses in Gujarat. Along with Maharashtra (4.36 lakh), Madhya Pradesh (4.29 lakh), and Andhra Pradesh (4.21 lakh), where more than 4 lakh houses each were constructed, the five states together accounted for more than 57% of the houses constructed under PMAY-U by the end of 2020-21. In all, 11 states where more than 1 lakh houses each were constructed, together accounted for 86% of the houses constructed under PMAY-U by the end of 2020-21.
Six states alone accounted for nearly 75% of the houses constructed under PMAY-G
Under PMAY-G, 22.9 lakh houses were constructed in West Bengal alone by the end of 2020-21. This accounts for 16.6% of the national total of 138 lakh houses constructed under PMAY-G by the end of 2020-21. More than 10 lakh houses each were constructed under the scheme in the states of Bihar (19.2 lakh), Madhya Pradesh (18.4 lakh), Odisha (15.9 lakh), Uttar Pradesh (14.5 lakh), and Rajasthan (11.3 lakh) which together, along with West Bengal, accounted for 74% of the houses constructed under PMAY-G till 2020-21. No house has been sanctioned in Telangana under PMAY-G since the state government is implementing a 2BHK housing scheme on its own.
The percentage of completed houses in urban areas was the highest in Telangana among large states
Delhi had completed construction of over 36,462 houses in the five years between 2016-17 and 2020-21 while sanction was given to more than 25,000 houses. Thus, the completion rate is more than 100%. Among other states, Goa had completed construction of 97.7% of the houses sanctioned during the period while Telangana reported the highest completion among the larger states with more than 85% of the sanctioned houses completed, followed by Kerala with 73.6%, and Gujarat with 67.1%. On the other hand, the completion was the lowest in Manipur with less than 9% of the sanctioned houses completed. Andhra Pradesh had the least completion rate of 20.7% among large states.
Completion under PMAY-G was lowest in Karnataka among larger states
Under PMAY-G, the completion rate was close to 99% in Sikkim, followed by Haryana (97%), and Tripura with 94%. However, the completion was relatively lower in the remaining northeastern states. Among large states, the completion was lowest in Karnataka with 50%.
Only 56% of funds sanctioned under PMAY-U and 84% under PMAY-G were released in five years
Under PMAY-U, the Centre had sanctioned almost Rs. 1.65 lakh crores for the implementation of the scheme to the states/UTs in the five years between 2016-17 and 2020-21. However, of this, only about Rs. 92,574 crores were released during this period, amounting to 56% of the total amount sanctioned by 2020-21. Further, only 45% of the total sanctioned central assistance was utilized for PMAY-U by the end of 2020-21.
Likewise, the central assistance sanctioned under PMAY-G was also close to Rs.1.65 lakh crores of which only Rs. 1.37 lakh crores were released. This amounted to 84% of the amount sanctioned by the end of 2020-21, for implementation of PMAY-G. The data on PMAY-G was sourced from the PMAY-G dashboard.
The greatest amount under PMAY-U sanctioned to Uttar Pradesh
Out of the total sanctioned funds under PMAY-U, Uttar Pradesh received the greatest amount of over Rs. 26,595 crores. The sanctioned amount was over Rs. 20,000 crores each for the states of Andhra Pradesh, and Maharashtra. The allocation was over Rs. 10,000 crores each for the states of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Tamil Nadu. These six states together accounted for 67% of the total sanctioned amount under PMAY-U by the end of 2020-21. The amount released to these states is also 67% of the total amount released by the union government by the end of 2020-21.
7 states accounted for 74% of funds released under PMAY-G
Under PMAY-G, the greatest amount was sanctioned to West Bengal with Rs. 25,000 crores followed by Bihar with over Rs. 24,000 crores. Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, Rajasthan, and Assam were sanctioned more than Rs. 10,000 crores each of central assistance. These seven states accounted for 74% of the total sanctioned amount and 76% of the amount released under PMAY-G by the end of 2020-21.
The percentage of funds released was low for Karnataka and AP under PMAY-U
Under PMAY-U, the percentage of funds released (compared to the sanctioned amount) was highest for Goa with 99.4%. Among large states, close to 80% of funds were released for Gujarat. Only 24% of the funds were released for Haryana, the lowest in the case of states. Karnataka had less than 47% of funds released and Andhra Pradesh, 37.1%- lowest among large states.
Under PMAY-G, more than the sanctioned funds were released for Andhra Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Jharkhand. Close to 100% of the sanctioned funds were released for West Bengal. However, only 9.7% of the sanctioned amount was released for Kerala. Not a single rupee has been sanctioned or released for Kerala in the last three years under PMAY-G.
Need to ramp up Construction of houses under PMAY-U
Data shows that while the sanctioned number is high both in the case of PMAY-U & PMAY-G, the completion rate is not on par, especially in the case of PMAY-U. With only about a year left to achieve the targets set under the ‘Housing for all’ mission, the government must ramp the construction efforts in both schemes.
Featured Image: Construction of Houses under PMAY

created: October 29, 2021


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Data: Like the Lok Sabha, Women’s Representation in State Assemblies Remains Poor - FACTLY
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
September 29, 2023
Data indicates that like in the case of Lok Sabha, the representation of women in state legislative assemblies remains low. It is not even 20% in any of the states with the share below the Lok Sabha average in many states. While the share of women contestants is relatively higher in some states, share of women winning from these states is still low.
During the special session of the Parliament held in September 2023, both Houses almost unanimously approved the Constitution (One Hundred and Twenty-Eighth Amendment) Bill, 2023. This bill, also known as the Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam or the Women’s Reservation Bill, seeks to allocate 33% or one-third of the seats in the Lok Sabha and state Legislative Assemblies for women. This provision also extends to reserved seats for SCs and STs in the Lok Sabha and state assemblies. The bill will come into effect following the President’s assent after the release of the 2021 Census data and subsequent delimitation, with the reservation initially lasting for 15 years, extendable by a parliamentary law.
In the previous story, we looked at women’s representation in the Lok Sabha. Despite progress, women’s representation in the Lok Sabha remains modest, increasing from 5.5% in 1957 to 14.4% in 2019, falling short of the proposed 33% representation for women in the Bill. We also observed that the percentage of women elected to the Lok Sabha was higher than the national average for women elected to state assemblies. While women’s parliamentary representation is vital for gender equality, social justice, and addressing various societal issues, women don’t makeup even one-fifth of the MLAs in any of the states/UTs. In this story, we look at the data about women’s representation in state assemblies across India. Data for this story is based on various Statistical Reports of the Election Commission of India collated by Dataful.
Women constituted only 3% of the candidates in Nagaland’s Assembly elections in 2018
The share of female candidates out of the total candidates that contested elections in the latest year of Legislative Assembly elections as of 2022 is represented in the map below. The year in which the latest elections to each state’s legislative assembly took place is given in the following table.
The share of women candidates out of the total candidates that contested the election ranges from less than 3% in Nagaland to more than 12% in Uttar Pradesh. Only 9 states/UTs including Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, West Bengal, Puducherry, Kerala, Sikkim, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and Tamil Nadu reported more than 10% women among all the candidates. The participation was less than 7% in the northeastern states of Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh, and Nagaland, as well as in Himachal Pradesh. In Punjab, Maharashtra, and Telangana, the share is between 7 to 8%. It should be noted that elections have been held in Telangana only once so far, in 2018.
Historically, the trends in the last six legislative assembly elections in some of the major states reveal that the share of women candidates has improved over the years in almost all the states, just like in the case of the Lok Sabha elections. However, the rate of increase varies across states. For instance, in Uttar Pradesh, the share of women candidates grew steadily from 4.3% to 12.6% between 1996 and 2022 while in Delhi, it increased by only 4.8% between 1998 and 2020. In Maharashtra, where the share was only 5.2% in 1995, women constituted only 7.4% of the candidates in the 2019 elections.
While Bihar recorded an overall growth from 3.1% in 1995 to 9.9% in 2020, the states of Punjab and Assam saw a decline in their share in the last 2-3 elections. In Punjab, women candidates constituted only 7.5% in 1997 which dropped even further to 5.3% in 2007. In 2017 and 2022, the state reported 7.1%, lower than the representation in 1997 & 2002. Meanwhile, in Assam, the share of women candidates grew from 3.7% in 1996 to 8.7% in 2011. However, in the following elections, the share dropped marginally to 8.6% in 2016 and 8% in 2021.
Nagaland had no women elected in the elections as of 2022
Since the number of seats in the Legislative Assembly of each state/UT is different, we look at the share of seats that women won in the latest assembly elections of the total seats in the Legislative Assembly for better comparison.
No state has reported women winners in at least 15% of the seats. As per the results of the last legislative assembly elections in Mizoram and Nagaland, women did not win a single seat. In fact, as of 2022, no woman had won any seat in the state assembly elections of Nagaland in the six decades since the state’s formation in 1963.
Assam, Karnataka, Jammu and Kashmir, and Himachal Pradesh saw women in only less than 5% of the seats while the representation in Telangana, Tamil Nadu, and Meghalaya was slightly above 5%. Despite reporting a comparatively larger large share of women candidates in elections, the number of women winners was only 7.86% in Kerala and 5.13% in Tamil Nadu.
Even though Uttar Pradesh saw the highest share of women contestants, Chhattisgarh recorded the highest share of women MLAs with 14.44%, close to the representation in the latest Lok Sabha. West Bengal’s assembly led by a woman Chief minister has 13.7% of the seats occupied by women. Surprisingly, the states of Jharkhand, Rajasthan, and Bihar, are among those which have a higher representation of women in the Assembly. These are states where the performance in social indicators like health and education has been relatively poorer, as per national surveys.
Reserving seats for women is an important step forward, but implementation matters
Data reveals that the representation of women in state assemblies in India varies from state to state. Nonetheless, the representation of women is poor across the board. Data also indicates that despite a relatively larger share of women contesting in the state assembly elections in some states, the share of seats won by women is very low in many of these states. While this in an indication that there is improved awareness and interest among women to participate in elections, mere participation in elections need not translate to better representation of women in decision-making. Since women win fewer seats, it may mean that either the competition is more among the women candidates, or the society continues to favour men in elections. To ensure women are represented, the Women’s Reservation Bill is an important step forward. However, it remains to be seen how issues like proxy women participation will shape up in the future.

created: September 29, 2023


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Data: Long Period Average of South-West Monsoon Rainfall Has Reduced Over the Years
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
July 13, 2023
Long Period Average of rainfall or LPA is the rainfall recorded over a particular region for a given interval (like month or season) averaged over a long period like 30 years or 50 years. Data indicates that India’s mean rainfall for the South-West monsoon season has dropped by 12.0 mm during 1971-2020 as compared to 1961-2010.
Every year, around the first week of June, the South-West Monsoon hits Kerala and gradually progresses towards the Himalayas and northwest region. By July, the Monsoon is expected to cover the entire county. The southwest monsoon is generally responsible for the major portion of annual rainfall over this sub-continent and contributes about 75-80% to the annual total rainfall in South Asia. The livelihoods of millions of people are dependent on these rains. Monsoon variability has a severe impact on agricultural production which in turn impacts the country’s economy and food security. Further, monsoon spells come as a relief after the hot summer and help in replenishing the groundwater levels and other surface water resources like dams, tanks, and reservoirs.
In the last two weeks, there have been reports of severe damage due to heavy rains in the northern parts of India. According to the Central Water Commission’s flood forecast portal, the water level in Yamuna River in Delhi has breached all-time record levels and even the danger mark. However, this year, according to Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), the rainfall was 10% lower than usual in the month of June 2023. But how is this measured?
Long Period Average reduced in the latest revision
All India’s monthly rainfall is the amount of accumulated rainfall received over India for a particular month. Likewise, the all-India seasonal rainfall is the amount of accumulated rainfall received over India for a particular season. For instance, the seasonal rainfall of the South-West Monsoon is for the four-month period from June to September. These values vary from year to year.
Long Period Average of rainfall or LPA is the rainfall recorded over a particular region for a given interval (like month or season) averaged over a long period like 30 years or 50 years. The value is used as a benchmark while forecasting the quantitative rainfall for that region for a specific month or season. IMD which monitors the rainfall in the country has prepared this rainfall normal based on the data for the period of 50 years and is updated periodically once in every decade by incorporating the latest data from rain gauge stations.
At the national level, effective from South-West Monsoon 2022, the LPA for the South-West has been revised to 868.8 mm based on data from 1971-2020 instead of the erstwhile rainfall normal of 880.6 mm based on 1961- 2010. It was 89 cm or 890 mm for the period 1950-2000. In other words, India’s mean rainfall for the South-West monsoon season has dropped by 12.0 mm during 1971-2020 as compared to 1961-2010. Similarly, at the national level, the annual LPA has been reduced from 1176.9 mm to 1160.1 mm, by 16.8 mm.
It is based on this LPA that IMD categorises rainfall into large excess, excess, normal, deficient, and large deficient across spatial and temporal scales. For instance, if the realized rainfall is 60% or above of the LPA, the rainfall is large excess. If it is less than 20% higher or lower, the rainfall is considered normal. For the entire monsoon season at the national level, when the rainfall averaged over the country as a whole is within 90% to 110% of LPA, the rainfall is said to be ‘normal’ and when the rainfall is less than 90% or more than 110% of LPA, the rainfall is said to be ‘below or above normal’.
The trend in actual rainfall in South- West Monsoon during the monsoon season (June to September) since 1901 has been mapped for the national level as well as four different regions in this story. Data for this story has been taken from Factly’s Dataful.
Rainfall has reduced in some regions
Although there is variation every year, at the All-India level, it is seen that the actual rainfall has dropped below 800 mm and gone above 1000 mm more frequently since 1960. Prior to that, the majority of the years saw rainfall in the range of 800 to 1000 mm.
Across regions, while there is higher variability in the rainfall since the 1960s in the south peninsular region and central India, the actual rainfall in the monsoon season has dropped gradually in the northeast. In northwest India, since 2000, the rainfall has been below 600 mm in 17 out of 22 years. This is slightly higher compared to the earlier years.
Overall, the rainfall has declined in some regions as is evident in the case of the revised LPA.
Variation in patterns across months is evident
Data of the monthly actual rainfall during the South-West monsoon season indicates that in the month of June since 1901, the rainfall has dropped below 100 mm only 4 times- in 1905, 1926, 2009, and 2014. Since the 1950s, the rainfall has been below 150 mm in June more frequently. In the month of July, the year 2002 recorded the lowest rainfall since 1901. Until the 1970s, the rainfall was more than 300 mm more frequent than in the period since. In September, the rainfall crossed 250 mm only three times, first in 1917 and twice since the 1970s- in 1983 and 2019.
Monsoon forecast has improved
Forecasting monsoons is crucial as it helps the country to be better prepared to deal with the rains & plan the cropping season considering the significant number of people dependent on rainfalls in India. For instance, forecast helps IMD to issue early heat and rain warnings and alerts to states and districts. With the increase in extreme weather events in recent years due to climate change, the need for precise forecasts has only increased.
Factly compiled data of the actual date of onset of monsoons and the forecasted date from various sources like IMD’s journal and press releases.  Data is not available for 7 years- 1994, and the period from 1999 to 2004. IMD started publishing the said data periodically starting in 2005. Data clearly indicates that IMD’s forecast has improved in the last two decades. With the variation of 10 to 16 days until 1999 and up to 6 days in the last 15 years, the forecast precision has improved.
Featured Image: Monsoon Rainfall


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Data: Low disposal rate of seized illicit Drugs a cause for concern
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
February 18, 2022
Hearing a PIL, the Supreme Court noted with concern the low disposal rate of seized illicit drugs by central & state agencies, which is as low as less than 10% in some states. Even the Odisha high court recently issued directions in this regard. Here is a review of the data.
Recently, the Andhra Pradesh police set ablaze 2 lakh kilograms of seized cannabis or ganja in Vishakhapatnam district which garnered national attention. The Andhra Pradesh Police’s Twitter page shared these visuals calling it a ‘historic occasion in the annals of #APPolice’. Massive pyres were erected on the ground to burn the seized ganja as part of the state’s Operation Parivarthana launched in November 2021, aimed at curbing drug use in the state. Concerns over the intoxication effect of the burning on those who were part of the act, residents in the neighbourhood, and those witnessing it were raised.
Historic occasion in the annals of #APPolice: An unprecedented 2La Kgs of seized Ganja Destruction by #APPolice along with Drug Disposable Committee, Special Enforcement Bureau at Koduru(V),Anakapalli(M), #Visakhapatnam District.#MissionDrugFreeIndia @narcoticsbureau pic.twitter.com/IMHlPmilP2
In this context, we look at the quantum of seized drugs across various states since 2014 and the law related to the seizure of drugs.
India has ratified three international conventions on drug-related matters
Article 47 of the Constitution states that the ‘State shall endeavour to bring about prohibition of the consumption except for medicinal purposes of intoxicating drinks and of drugs which are injurious to health’. In addition, India is a signatory to three international conventions on drug-related matters viz., Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs, 1961, Convention on Psychotropic Substances, 1971 and the UN Convention Against Illicit Traffic in Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances, 1988.
In 1985, the Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances (NDPS) Act (NDPS), came into effect which prohibits, except for medical or scientific purposes, the manufacture, production, trade, use, etc. of narcotic drugs and psychotropic substances.
As per the NDPS Act, “narcotic drug” refers to coca leaf, cannabis (hemp), opium, poppy straw and includes all manufactured drugs while “psychotropic substance” refers to any substance, natural or synthetic, or any natural material or any salt or preparation of such substance or material included in the list of psychotropic substances specified in the Schedule of the legislation. The Act is applicable to the whole of India, Indian citizens outside the country, and to all persons on ships and aircrafts registered in India.
Every now and then, instances of seizure of narcotic drugs by drug law enforcement agencies such as Narcotics Control Bureau (NCB), Central Bureau of Narcotics, Directorate General of Revenue Intelligence, Commissionerates of Customs, Commissionerates of Central Excise, and Coast Guard at the national level and Police and Excise Officers at the state level are reported. The drugs of various types seized in such operations have to be disposed of from time to time, or as soon as may be, as prescribed in the NDPS Act. Section 52A of the Act provides for pre-trial disposal of drugs because of the hazardous nature, vulnerability to theft, pilferage, replacement, or constraint of proper storage space, after preparing a proper inventory of the seized items and keeping aside samples for court trials.
The procedure for disposal of seized drugs was notified in 2015
The procedure for disposal of seized drugs has been clearly enumerated in the Department of Revenue’s notification dated 16 January 2015.
When the seized drug has been forwarded to the officer-in-charge of the nearest police station or an officer of the department of central excise, narcotics, customs, or revenue intelligence, they should prepare an inventory containing the description, quality, quantity, mode of packing, marks, other identifying particulars of the drug, or the packing in which they are packed, country of origin and other such details and apply to a Magistrate within 30 days to verify the correctness of inventory prepared, take photographs and videos of the drugs, and draw representative samples as primary evidence.
Upon the Magistrate’s approval, the details are submitted to the Chairman of the Drug Disposal Committee for its decision on disposal. The 2015 order mandated that all central and state drug law enforcement agencies constitute Drug Disposal Committees with three Members each, headed by an officer not-below-the-rank of Superintendent of Police, Joint Commissioner of Customs and Central Excise, Joint Director of Directorate of Revenue Intelligence, or officers of equivalent rank.
Permission to dispose of drugs depends on the weight of contraband seized
The committee can order disposal of drugs only if the total amount of drugs in possession weighs a certain prescribed amount. If the consignments are larger in quantity or of higher value, then the Drug Disposal Committee sends its recommendations to the Head of the Department, who shall order their disposal by a High-level Drug Disposal Committee, specially constituted for this purpose.
Certain seized drugs may be sold through auction or tenders
Drugs such as Opium, morphine, codeine, and thebaine are disposed of by transferring the required quantity to the Government Opium and Alkaloid Works under the Chief Controller of Factories and the remaining is destroyed. Those Narcotic drugs, psychotropic substances, and controlled substances seized which have proper labelling may be sold through auction or tender for medical purposes under the Drugs and Cosmetics Act, 1940, if the Committee permits. The rest is destroyed.
For destroying the seized drugs, incinerators fitted with appropriate air pollution control devices, and complying with emission standards, approved by the State Pollution Control Board, where adequate facilities and security arrangements exist such that there is no health hazard or cause pollution, are to be used. Consent of the State Pollution Control Board is required. The destruction should take place in the presence of the Members of the Drug Disposal Committee. The Committee should then present a Certificate of destruction containing all the relevant information, like Godown entry number, gross and net weight of the items seized, etc. Finally, the Narcotics Control Bureau must be provided with the details of the disposed of drugs and substances in monthly reports.
Only a portion of the seized Drugs is destroyed
Drugs seized and drugs destroyed by the NCB for 2019, 2020 & 2021 is given in the below table. A gap between the contraband seized and destroyed is evident. Throughout the 3 years, over 1.51 lakh kg, 3.56 lakh bottles, 78.77 lakh tablets were seized while only 73,904 kg (about 49% of seized), 2.7 lakh bottles (76%), 21.62 lakh tablets (27.4%), were destroyed. While 22,659 ampoule of contraband was seized, 32,996 ampoules (146%) was destroyed between 2019 and 2021. Despite the seizure of 2,611 blots of contraband, nothing was destroyed.
Contraband destroyed in 2020 was lowest since 2016
The data on drug contraband (measured in kilograms) seized and disposed of by the NCB between 2014 and November 2021 indicates the following. In 2020, the net contraband destroyed was the lowest since 2016.
Apart from this, contraband measured in bottles, blots, tablets, plants, capsules, strips, etc. has also been seized by NCB across 19 states in the mentioned period. However, NCB has destroyed only a portion of these seized contraband in UP, Assam, Manipur, West Bengal, Bihar, Maharashtra & Goa, Gujarat, and Jammu & Kashmir.
The possibility of seized drugs re-entering the market was pointed out by the Supreme Court in 2015
It is evident from the data that the proportion of drugs destroyed is lower than that seized every year. In 2015, the Supreme Court raised doubts that the drugs being burnt in the garb of the destruction of seized drugs could be nothing but “cow dung”. It added that illicit drugs worth crores of rupees seized every year could be re-entering the market, surreptitiously sold by lower-level staff in the agencies, because of the loopholes in the system.
The Supreme Court in this case issued a slew of directions for storage & disposal to the Central & State governments.
Recently, even the Odisha High Court directed the state to dispose of all applications under the NDPS Act that seek permission for destruction of the seized contraband by all courts concerned within ten days from the date of filing. Further, it directed that all applications under NDPS Act pending before the magistrates in the different judgeships across Odisha should be disposed of on or before 01 May 2022.
Despite the court directions & a standard procedure for disposal of the seized illicit drugs, there seems to be an inordinate delay in disposal & destruction of the seized drugs, with potential for their re-entry into the market as pointed out by the SC. The need of the hour is to set timelines for disposal of applications at all levels to ensure the seized drugs are disposed of within a reasonable timeframe.
Featured Image: Disposal rate of seized illicit Drugs

created: February 18, 2022


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Low Vaccination Coverage in African Asian countries is cause for concern
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
November 6, 2021
The trends in Americas, Western Europe indicate that vaccination has contributed to reduce fatalities in recent COVID-19 waves compared to the days of pre-vaccination. Similar pattern is observed in some of the Latin American countries. However, the low vaccination rates in African & Asian countries remains a cause for concern.
In the earlier story, we reviewed the trends in vaccination in some of the developed countries around the world with high vaccination coverage. The trends indicate that vaccination has contributed to reduce fatalities in recent COVID-19 waves compared to the days of pre-vaccination.
As per available information, as of 04 November 2021, USA & Canada in North America lead with a high proportion of the population fully vaccinated, followed by the Latin American countries. Europe slightly lags Latin America, with lower rates in Eastern European countries bringing down the average. Africa faces a severe COVID-19 vaccine crisis with only 8.7% of the population vaccinated at least with one dose.
In this story, we look at the trends in a few of the countries from Latin America, Africa & Asia. Even for this story, we have relied on the data provided on Ourworldindata.org and the information is as of 31October 2021. The daily numbers for cases & deaths considered for the analysis are 10-day averages.
Brazil
Brazil has reported the third highest number of COVID-19 cases after USA & India with around 21.8 million cases by the end of October’2021. Vaccination in the country began during the latter part of January 2021 but had very low traction during the initial months. This period also coincided with the beginning of the third wave in the country which not only saw an increase in the number of new daily cases but also an increase in the number of deaths. It was immediately followed by a fourth wave, which also resulted in a high number of daily cases and deaths at par with the third wave.
The vaccination coverage only started to improve amidst the fourth wave and gained momentum. As of October 2021, 74.4% of the population received at least one dose of vaccination and 55.2% of the population is fully vaccinated. The increase in the vaccination numbers coincides with a period of decline in the number of cases as well as deaths, with no new wave for four months now.
Colombia
Among the Latin American countries, Colombia reported the third highest number of COVID-19 cases, following Brazil & Argentina. As noted earlier, Brazil has already vaccinated close to 75% of its population with at least one dose. The same is the case with Argentina which has also vaccinated 75% of its population with at least a single dose. In comparison, only around 58% of the population of Colombia received at least one dose and around 41% have been fully vaccinated.
While these numbers are comparably lower than Brazil or Argentina, the trend is like that of these countries i.e., the increase in vaccine coverage coincided with a decline in the number of new cases as well as a fall in the number of deaths.
The latest wave was at its peak at the end of June 2021. The Vaccination started gaining pace at the beginning of June 2021 and by the end of the month, around 23% received at least a single dose.
The country is yet to encounter a new wave of COVID-19 infection since July 2021. However, with only around half the population vaccinated, there is still a threat of increased cases in future waves. However, based on the data of other countries, it can be said that future waves could be less fatal because of increased vaccine coverage.
Indonesia
Indonesia had a noticeable spread of COVID-19 infection only during the last quarter of 2020, by which time many of the other countries were experiencing 2 & 3 waves. The numbers during the initial wave in Indonesia were also lower.  The country experienced a comparatively severe second wave during Jan-Feb’2021. Vaccination began in Indonesia by the end of January 2021 though only about 10% of the population was vaccinated by the end of June.
Indonesia witnessed a more severe third wave, with a peak of 50 thousand plus daily cases by mid-of July’2021. The deaths also peaked at around 2 thousand per day. The vaccination gathered pace during this period. Eventually, the third wave subsided starting August, with around 500 daily cases being reported as of date. The overall vaccine coverage is still lower with only 43% of the population receiving at least one dose and 27% fully vaccinated. However, this is a marked improvement compared to the initial few months of vaccination in the country.
A review of the timeline indicates that Indonesia did have a window of low COVID-19 spread and a proactive approach towards vaccination during that period could have helped in averting a fatal third wave.
It is to be seen if there would be a new wave in Indonesia given that the vaccination coverage is still comparatively low. Based on the experiences from other countries, Indonesia can do well by ramping up the vaccination rate during the current window.
South Africa
COVID-19 infection spread late in most of the African countries. South Africa has the greatest number of COVID-19 cases of all African countries. The country experienced its first COVID-19 wave during July/August 2020.  At the beginning of 2021, South Africa was in the middle of a second wave which was severe than the first one. At the peak of this wave, around 20 thousand daily cases were being reported with around 600-700 daily deaths. This wave started to subside by the end of January 2021. It was around mid-February 2021 that South Africa started administering vaccines for its citizens. However, the rate of vaccination was very low during the first few months. By end of June 2021, the number of daily cases began to increase when only about 5% of the population was vaccinated with at least one dose.
The third wave peaked during early July with 20-22 thousand daily cases. The vaccination coverage also started to improve during this month. The number of deaths, however, was comparatively lower than the second wave.
Although the rate of vaccination is still low with only about a quarter of the population vaccinated with at least one dose, the increase has coincided with falling numbers of the third wave. Unlike in European countries, the gap between the waves is longer in the case of South Africa akin to India and a few other Asian countries.
The intensity of any further waves remains to be seen. However, like in the case of Indonesia, South Africa did miss out on a window prior to the third wave with very low vaccination rates.
There is an urgent need to ramp up the vaccination coverage to mitigate the intensity of future COVID-19 spread.
Low Vaccination rates impeding efforts to reduce the spread of COVID-19
The countries analysed in this story provide details of the trends witnessed across the different regions of the world. Though each country is in a different situation, they indicate the broad trends in various regions of the world.
A common aspect across the countries is the positive correlation of vaccination and mitigation of COVID-19 in terms of lower fatalities. As observed in the earlier story, developed countries were able to vaccinate a major portion of their population and reduce the fatalities from the infection. Countries like Brazil & Argentina also did well in vaccine coverage. Countries like Colombia have been late but improved their vaccination coverage over time. All these countries witnessed a reduction in fatalities with improved vaccine coverage.
The greater concern is around the developing & poorer countries in Asia & Africa. Though Indonesia & South Africa had windows of opportunity to vaccine their population, they were slow and paid the price in severe waves. Despite lower vaccination coverage, South Africa is relatively better off than other African countries.  The overall vaccination rate of only around 8% poses a serious risk of future infections in Africa, which is already suffering from economic and logistical challenges.
While India is better off than most countries especially considering its huge population, it needs to ramp up the second dose to fully vaccinate a substantial portion of the adult population.
Featured Image: Vaccination Coverage

created: November 6, 2021


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Data: Lower Non-Tax Revenues & Grants-in-Aid bring down the Revenue Receipts of certain states in 2021-22
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
July 12, 2022
Data available with the CAG in the form of ‘Monthly Key Indicators’ indicates that while some states managed to surpass their budget estimates for revenue receipts in 2021-22, some states did not. Lower Non-Tax Revenues & Grants-in-Aid brought down the revenue receipts of certain states in 2021-22.
In the first of this two-part series, we analysed the trends for those States whose actual revenue receipts were more than 95% of the budget estimates for 2021-22. The data indicates that all these states had revenue receipts of more than or about the same amount as in budget estimates for 2021-22. There are, however, differences in the nature of these revenue receipts, with tax revenues, especially GST earnings of a few of the states still proportionately much lower than the estimates.
In this story, we look at the trends in actual revenue receipts of the remaining states.
Methodology: The data submitted by the states & as available on the website of the Comptroller & Auditor General (CAG) is considered for the analysis. The data is collated from the ‘Monthly Key Indicators’ report of the respective states as of March 2022 i.e., the end of the financial year 2021-22. Revenue Receipts of the States are used for the analysis. Revenue Receipts include – Tax Revenue, Non-Tax revenue and any Grant-in-aid & contributions received.  The Tax revenues of the states include – GST, Land revenue, Sales Tax, State excise duties, State share in Union taxes & other taxes. The states are categorized based on the proportion of Actual Revenue receipts compared to the budget estimates. Northeastern States (except Assam) are categorized separately. Goa, Delhi & Puducherry are excluded from the analysis as there is no data available on the CAG website.
States Share in Union Taxes & Grants-in-aid contribute to higher Revenue receipts despite lower tax collection
During 2021-22, seven (7) states have reported revenue receipts of less than 95% but more than 85% of their budget estimates for the year. As seen in the case of other states with a higher proportion of actuals, the contribution of the different components of the revenue receipts varies from state to state. Here is a snapshot of these seven states.
Assam’s revenue receipts improved in 2021-22 compared to the previous year both in terms of volume and as a proportion of the estimates for the year. Its revenue through taxes was 113% of the estimates but largely due to higher receipt of its share of union taxes compared to estimates. SGST was also better off than earlier with 94.6% collections compared to only 60% collected during the pandemic year. However, the state received only about 70% of the grants-in-aid that it estimated, which brought down the overall proportion of the actual revenue receipts in comparison to its estimates.
In 2021-22, a lower collection of SGST than estimates for Kerala was compensated by nearly 1.5 times higher actuals of the state’s share of union taxes compared to estimates and 95% actuals in grants-in-aid compared to the estimates. It ought to be noted that during 2020-21, the actual grants-in-aid received by Kerala were much higher at Rs. 31.04 thousand crores compared to the estimates of about Rs. 11.69 thousand crores. Meanwhile, it received only about 55% of its estimates in its share of union taxes for the pandemic year of 2020-21.
In the case of Haryana, the actuals for non-tax revenue and grants-in-aid were much lower than its estimates for year 2021-22. But this was compensated by the increase in GST collections as well as revenue through sales tax. Another key contributor to better revenue receipts (at 88.8% of the estimates) is its share of union taxes received for the year was 133% of what the state estimated.
Uttar Pradesh has the highest revenue receipts for 2021-22 in terms of volume. However, Rs. 3.57 lakh crores were about 85% of its estimates for the year. For the year 2021-22, the state’s GST collection was about 90% of its estimates. The overall Tax revenue of the state was just over its estimates which is largely contributed by the higher proportion in the share of union taxes compared to the estimates for 2021-22. Meanwhile, as is the case with the other states, the actuals for grants-in-aid received is much lower than the estimates.
Bihar’s actual revenue from the taxes was closer to its estimates. Unlike the states discussed above, the State’s share of Union taxes has only a limiting influence with the actuals matching the estimates. GST collection was also 97% of the estimates. This was a significant improvement over 2020-21. However, the overall revenue receipts of the state were only about 85% since the actual non-tax revenue and grants-in-aid were much lesser than its estimates.
Lower Non-tax revenue than estimates affects total revenue receipts
Among the large states, three states have total actual revenue receipts for 2021-22 less than 85% of their estimates – Andhra Pradesh, Telangana & Punjab. A common trend across these three states, especially in the case of Telangana is lower non-tax revenue compared to estimates, which has resulted in the overall shortfall of revenue receipts, despite better tax revenues in accordance with the estimates.  Here is a snapshot of these three states.
In 2020-21, the revenue receipts of Andhra Pradesh (AP) were about 72% of the estimates. Within this, the tax revenues were around 79% of estimates while the state’s GST was around 73% of estimates. This has improved in 2021-22, in terms of volume as well as the proportion of the estimates. The actual GST for the year was 86.3% of estimates. The overall tax revenue was near 95%. As was the case with few other states, a higher receipt of states’ share of union taxes was a key contributor. However, the non-tax revenue was only about 71% and grants-in-aid were about 67% of the estimates, resulting in overall lower actual revenue receipts compared to estimates for the year.
The trend for Punjab is similar to Andhra Pradesh. The actual tax revenue, GST in specific was close to the estimates. But a lower non-tax revenue and grants-in-aid compared to the estimates have contributed to lower revenue receipts.
For most of the Northeastern States, an increase in Tax Revenues has helped manage the shortfall
The quantum of revenue receipts for most of the northeastern states is lower compared to the other states in the country. And hence, slight variation in any of the revenue components may have a disproportionate impact on the overall revenue receipts. While the trends are similar across these states, there are certain outliers.
A general trend across the states (with the exception of Manipur) is that the actual tax revenue of the states is higher than the estimates in 2021-22. This is a key contributor to the overall revenue receipts. Better tax revenues are a combination of both higher than estimated tax revenues of the states including GST, Sales Tax, Excise, etc. as well as the higher amount received as States’ share of Union taxes compared to the estimates.  Manipur is an exception with the lower State’s own tax revenue, which is reflected in the shortfall of the revenue receipts. The northeastern states also received lower grants-in-aid than estimates in general.
Trends in Revenue Receipts do not present a complete picture of the respective State’s performance
As highlighted in the methodology, the Revenue Receipts of the States include – State’s Tax revenues, Non-Tax Revenues, Grants-in-aid, etc. The Tax revenues of the states being reported include their share of Union taxes apart from SOTR (State’s Own Tax Revenue). Apart from SOTR & Non-tax revenue, the grants-in-aid from the union government also have a significant impact on the overall revenue receipts.
Even in the case of the individual components where only the state has a role, the non-tax revenues influenced overall revenue receipts.  For instance, in the case of Telangana, the state has managed to meet its estimates in terms of SOTR but fell short of overall revenue receipts due to significantly lower non-tax revenue & grants-in-aid. In other words, though the state managed to meet its tax revenue targets, the other components brought it down. On the other hand, Gujarat managed to compensate for its lower GST collections with a higher proportion of grants-in-aid. Similarly, Odisha is another state which managed to earn a higher revenue due to non-tax revenue, which might not be the case in the coming years.
While actual revenue receipts of the States compared to estimates provide an indicative trend of the recovery in the post-pandemic period, the extent of the shortfall is not necessarily a reflection of the performance of states.


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Data: Maharashtra accounted 18% of State Highway length in the country as of March 2019
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
August 11, 2022
The annual Basic Road Statistics of India report published by the Ministry of Road Transport & Highways (MORTH) provides detailed data about the road network in the country.  As per the recently released 2018-19 report, more than 50% of the National Highway network in the country was concentrated in seven states. Maharashtra accounts for 18% of the state highway length in India.
In the first of the two-part series, we looked at a few of the key statistics related to the roads in India as provided in the ‘Basic Road Statistics of India 2018-19’ report. In this second part, we look at the statistics related to the different categories of roads across the states. We specifically look at National Highways, State Highways, Rural Roads & Urban roads.
52% of the total length of National Highways in 7 States by March 2019
National Highways (NH) are the primary mode of road transport in India and carry nearly 1/3rd of the total road traffic. The National Highways connect most of the state capitals and UTs, major ports, industrial centres, rail junctions, tourist spots etc. They also link up with the border roads and highways of neighbouring countries.
The Ministry of Road Transport & Highways (MoRTH) is responsible for the construction, development, and maintenance of National Highways. It implements the NH projects primarily through the National Highways Authority of India Ltd (NHAI) & National Highways Infrastructure Development Corporation Ltd. (NHIDCL). It also coordinates with State Public Work Departments (PWDs) for 2-lane NH and Border Roads Organization (BRO).
There is a 5% increase in the length of NH in 2018-19 compared to the previous year. Apart from the new NH laid, conversion and upgradation of a few State Highways into National Highways have contributed to the growth.
Over the years, different initiatives and schemes by successive governments have contributed to increasing the total length of NH from 19.8 thousand Km in 1950-51 to 1.32 lakh km by 2018-19. This increase also meant that nearly all major parts of the country are connected through National Highways.
However, there are few states which have a major share of the total length of NH in the country.
The respective size of the states, presence of important cities and industrial centres, their geographical location etc. can be cited as a few of the reasons for the concentration of a higher network on NH in a few states.
Maharashtra has the highest share of National Highways in the country with 13.4% as of March 2019. A total of 17.7 thousand Km of NH passes through the state. The state has 18 National Highways.  The other large states of Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan & Madhya Pradesh have 8.9%, 7.8% and 6.6% of the total NH in the country.
Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu & Gujarat have the next highest concentration of NH in the country. Longer coastlines, commercial centres, and tourist spots are a few of the reasons for these four states to have a larger share of the total National Highways. The 8 Northeastern States (including Sikkim) have around 10% of the NH network in the country.
18% of total State Highways are in Maharashtra as of March 2019
State Highways are roads that link major centres within the state and connect them with National Highways or State Highways of the neighbouring states.  They are constructed and managed by the respective State Governments through State Public Works Departments. These along with the district roads are considered as the secondary system of road transportation in the country.
Maharashtra has the largest State Highway network with 32 thousand KMs. This is nearly 18% of 1.79 lakh km of State Highway network in the country.  Karnataka has more than 1/10 of the network in the country with 19.47 thousand Km, followed by Gujarat, Rajasthan & Andhra Pradesh.
As per the 2018-19 report, Arunachal Pradesh has the next highest with 13.5 thousand KM of State Highways. However, this includes all the roads under the State PWD, as the state has not provided an official classification of the roads i.e., State Highways, District roads etc.  Most of the Northeastern States have a lower length of State Highways, with Mizoram the least at 170 km.
Within the states, Districts roads are a key to local rural connectivity. They constitute nearly 1/10 of the total road network in the country. Maharashtra has the highest district road network with 1.08 lakh km, followed by Uttar Pradesh at 55 thousand KM.
Assam has the second highest Rural Road network, but only a smaller portion is surfaced
Rural Roads form the highest component of the Road networks in the country. The total rural road length in the country is 45.22 lakh Km. Rural roads consist of roads constructed by Panchayat Raj institutions, State PWDs and those constructed under Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY).
54.6% of the rural roads are Panchayat Raj Roads, 24.1% are under State PWDs & RWDs and 21.3% of the roads are constructed under PMGSY.
However, only about 67% of the Rural Roads are surfaced, especially with only 55% of the Panchayat Roads being surfaced. The roads laid by State PWDs & under PMGSY have a higher proportion of surfaced roads.
Maharashtra has the highest rural road network with 4.26 lakh Km. The state also has a greater proportion of these roads surfaced, at 74.1%.  In contrast, Assam which has the second highest rural road network at 3.72 lakh km, only has about 75 thousand Km of these roads surfaced i.e., only about 20%. Karnataka also has more than 2 lakh km of Rural roads but less than 50% are surfaced.
Among the other top states with the highest length of Rural roads, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh & Rajasthan have a higher share of rural roads being laid/surfaced.  Bihar, Odisha & Karnataka have a lower share of their rural roads surfaced.
West Bengal & Uttar Pradesh have the highest length of Urban Roads in India
With a total road length of 5.41 lakh km, the urban roads constitute 8.5% of the total road length in the country. Urban Roads include – Municipal Roads under Urban Development Departments of States & UTs, Roads in Railway Zones, roads constructed by Military Engineering Services, Major & Minor Port Roads etc.
94% of the total Urban roads are Municipal roads. A total of 79% of the urban roads in the country are surfaced. Among the states, West Bengal has the highest urban road network with 95 thousand Km. Of it about 70% i.e., 66.7 thousand Km is surfaced.  UP has 70.2 thousand km of Urban roads. Karnataka, Rajasthan & Madhya Pradesh make up the top 5 states with the highest length of Urban Roads.
As was the case with rural roads, Karnataka is among the states with a less share of surfaced roads, even in the case of Urban roads.
Challenges with land acquisition, clearances are among the reasons for project delays
Data indicates that there has been considerable progress over the decades in developing the road infrastructure in the country. Successive governments have announced and implemented various flagship schemes to not only develop the National Highways network but also roads at the rural level. Most State governments also focus on developing the road network within the states.
The report highlights that few of the National Highways are delayed due to land acquisition, non-availability of resources to lay roads (soil, aggregate etc), environment & forest clearances, poor performances of contractors etc.  Several review initiatives are being taken up by the government to review the delay and expedite the projects, as per the details provided in the report.
Lower surface road coverage is a challenge which is seen both in Rural and Urban roads. Many of these roads are not newly laid roadways like the highways but are the ones already existing. Expediting converting the un-surfaced roads to surfaced roads can help in ensuring road safety and better access.
Featured Image:  Basic Road Statistics of India Report


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Data: Majority of The UPI & FASTag Transactions are Done Through a Few Entities
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
February 13, 2024
On 31 January 2024, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) directed Paytm Payments Bank Ltd (PPBL) to refrain from undertaking further deposits or credit transactions or top ups, fund transfers and other banking services from 29 February 2024. PPBL happens to be one of the major players in the UPI & FASTag transactions space.
On 31 January 2024, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) directed Paytm Payments Bank Ltd (PPBL) to refrain from undertaking further deposits or credit transactions or top-ups, fund transfers, and other banking services from 29 February 2024, except the withdrawal or utilization of balances of existing customers. It also directed for the closure of nodal accounts and settlement of pipeline transactions by 29 February 2024 and 15 March 2024, respectively. Before this, on 11 March 2022, the RBI had already stopped PPBL from onboarding new customers with immediate effect.
Paytm or Payment Through Mobile is a familiar term and is often resorted to as the payment application (App) by millions of people every day in India. The first of its kind, Paytm began as a mobile phone financial payment service provider application (App) in the year 2009. Its payment services began with paying prepaid mobile recharges and recharges for Direct to Home (DTH) services. The PPBL is an offshoot of Paytm as a digital bank that can receive deposits but cannot lend. In a short period, the services have been extended to most of the digital transactions that we see on the current day.
Like Paytm, the decade has also witnessed the advent of several other digital payment apps PhonePe, Google Pay, Airtel Payment Banks, Amazon Pay, and other entities, which perform the intermediary role of receiving and making payments. Some of these entities also act as Digital Banks such as Airtel Payments Bank, PPBL, etc.
The advent and progress of digitalization in the contemporary world are witnessed in almost every sphere of life. Digital finances and their transactions are one of the key areas which had witnessed rapid growth in the last decade in India. Today, one can perform financial transactions very easily in real-time with just one click using payment modes such as Unified Payment Services (UPI) and others. Digital transaction entities such as Paytm and others have been pioneers of this progress.
At the same time, the issues of regulation and governance, especially relating to banking, have been one of the major causes of concern in India. The recent RBI directions to PPBL have highlighted these concerns.
In this context, we look at the trends in the digital transactions performed through UPI and NETC FASTags in India, and the pressing issue of financial frauds in India.
Methodology
The data has been sourced from UPI  and NETC FASTag Transaction statistics datasets from Dataful, which has compiled the same data from the National Payment Corporation of India (NPCI). The data so compiled is used for analysis in this story.
NPCI data shows exponential increase in Volume and Value of UPI Transactions
The UPI system started in the year 2016 in India. From the year 2020, the NPCI has been publishing monthly statistics data about the total number (volume) and value of transactions performed through the UPI payment system. The analysis of this data shows that UPI transactions have grown exponentially in India.
The data shows that the total volume of UPI transactions has grown from 15,003 million in 2020 to 1,19,009 million in 2023, showing an increase of 693% in 4 years. Similarly, the total value of the number of transactions performed has also increased from 27,425 billion rupees in 2020 to 1,85,429 billion rupees in the year 2023, an increase of 587%.
There are over 100 entities where UPI transactions are performed but PhonePe, Google Pay and PPBL constitute to over 90% of UPI Transactions
As of December 2023, there are over 100 entities that facilitate the payment through UPI. Though there are numerous entities, over 90% of UPI transactions were performed through Google Pay, PhonePe, and PPBL in the last 4 years.
The data shows that PhonePe dominates and stands as the most used UPI app with over 40% share in both the total value and volume of UPI transactions each year from 2021 to 2023. In 2020, it had 38% and 21% of the total volume and value of UPI transactions performed, respectively. Google Pay stands next to it with over 30% of the total volume and value of transactions from 2021 to 2023. In the year 2020, it had 42% and 23% share of total volume and value of UPI transactions performed, respectively. PPBL stood in third place with over 10% of the total volume of transactions each year from 2020 to 2023. Its share in the total value of UPI transactions has increased from 6 to 9 from 2020 to 2021, and 9 to 10 and 10 to 11 in the successive years after 2021.
Data shows that these 3 entities together have constituted over 90% of the total volume and value of UPI transactions performed from the year 2020. It is only in the year 2020 that the total value of UPI transactions performed through these 3 entities stood at about 50%, though their total volume of transactions together stood at 92% in the same year.
The other entities that have stood among the top 5-UPI transaction entities across the years after PhonePe, Google Pay, and PPBL are Cred, BHIM, ICICI Bank, and Yes Bank. About 1% of the total volume and value of UPI transactions were performed by each of them from 2020 to 2023.
PPBL is also among the Top 3 Banks Issuing and Acquiring NETC FASTag
Along with the UPI transactions, PPBL is also among the top 3 banks that issue National Electronic Toll Collection (NETC) FASTags for facilitating FASTag transactions in India. Under the NETC FASTag system, some banks issue ETC tags to the vehicle owner and some banks acquire the Toll Plaza to facilitate the payment through ETC. As per NPCI mandate, the issuer or acquirer banks of FASTags must be members of NPCI and those registered can act as both issuer and acquirer
The analysis of the FASTag data shows that from the year 2021, over 40 banks in India have acquired toll plazas and issued FASTags. These include prominent banks such as ICICI, IDFC, SBI, Indusland, and others.
The data shows that the total volume of FASTag transactions issued and acquired by various banks has increased from 879 to 3,492 million and 864 to 3406 million, respectively, from the year 2021 to 2023.  Among the banks, the ICICI, IDFC, and PPBL banks have been in the top 3 positions as both the acquiring and issuing banks since year 2021.
The data shows that out of the total volume of acquiring and issuing transactions performed, ICICI, IDFC, and PPBL together have performed the majority of transactions at 78%, 78%, and 77% during the years 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively. Therefore, like in the UPI transactions, the majority of the transactions are performed by a few entities, even in the FASTags. PPBL is among the top three.
Beyond PPBL, effective Governance is the need of the hour
The data shows that the majority of the UPI or NETC FASTag transactions are performed through a few major entities or banks. Hence, any adverse impact on one of these entities like in the case of PPBL can affect a large population.
On 5 November 2020, the NPCI issued a circular whereby it directed all UPI Payment Service Providers (PSP) and Third Party App Providers (TPAP) to ensure that “total volume of transactions initiated through the TPAP shall not exceed 30% of the overall volume of transactions processed in UPI during the preceding three months (on a rolling basis)”, from 01 January 2021. The same circular granted additional time to existing TPAPs who were exceeding the 30% cap fixed by the NPCI. On 2 December 2022, the NPCI further extended this deadline by another 2 years to 31 December 2024.
The NPCI in a press release said that the basis for limiting TPAPs to 30% of total volume transactions is “to address the risks and protect the UPI ecosystem as it further scales up”. Adding on to this, the NPCI in its 2 December 2022 extension circular has also said “In view of significant potential of digital payments and the need for multi-fold penetration from its current state, it is imperative that other existing and new players (Banks and Non-Banks) shall scale-up their consumer outreach for the growth of UPI and achieve overall market equilibrium”
Therefore, the NPCI itself acknowledges the risks involved in allowing a  few entities to garner a significant market share leading to adverse impacts. Accordingly, NPCI noted the necessity for “market equilibrium” in digital transactions.
The RBI in its press release relating to PPBL noted that “external auditors revealed persistent non-compliances and continued material supervisory concerns in the bank”. Though not mentioned in the RBI release, media reports mention that the audit reports have revealed serious issues relating to PPBL, such as Know Your Customer (KYC) details of customer missing, PAN validation failures, bank involving itself in financial transactions beyond its limits, etc.
Beyond PPBL, the major issue that has been most in India in recent times is the increasing number of financial frauds committed through digital transactions in the last few years. The recent 2023 report of a non-profit titled ‘A deep dive into Cyber Crime Trends Impacting India’ revealed that over 77% of the Cyber Crimes witnessed between 2020 to 2023 in India have been related to financial frauds. Of this 77%, the frauds relating to UPI alone constitute over 47%. Further, the 2022-23 annual report of RBI has revealed that financial frauds relating to Cards and the Internet have increased from Rs. 119 crore to Rs. 276 crore in the year 2020-21 to 2022-23.
All these issues together highlight the need for more efficient mechanisms to prevent and control the commission of financial fraud with effective regulation systems in place. As mentioned, the data shows an exponential increase in the UPI transactions performed each year. At the same time, it also shows the bulk of financial frauds were that of UPI in India, among others. While some initiatives such as Citizen Financial Cyber Fraud Reporting and Management System and others have been launched, the data calls for more initiatives to comprehensively prevent and regulate financial frauds.

created: February 13, 2024


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Many routes connecting Mumbai witness a significant drop in Domestic Air Passenger Traffic post-pandemic
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
May 16, 2022
While aviation was one of the most affected sectors because of the COVID-19, a detailed analysis of the city-pair traffic data from the DGCA indicates that many routes connecting Mumbai have witnessed a significant drop in passenger traffic. The same has not been the case with routes connecting Delhi.
Factly had earlier analysed the trends in domestic air passenger traffic pre- and post-pandemic. Data revealed that there has been an improvement in numbers in 2021 and 2022 following the pandemic, compared to 2020. However, the Domestic Air Passenger traffic is still significantly lower than in 2019. India’s aviation sector had handled more than 10 crore passengers each year prior to the pandemic which has now dropped to 6.3 crores in 2020, and 8.38 crores in 2021, indicating a slow recovery.
In this story, we look at the trend in domestic passenger traffic across the top-50 routes with the most domestic passenger traffic between 2016 and 2021 using the Director-General of Civil Aviation (DGCA)’s monthly domestic city pair-wise data. That is, it provides data on the number of passengers commuting to and from a pair of cities, say city 1 and city 2. For the analysis in this story, the total number of passengers commuting between city 1 and city 2 in a specific calendar year has been calculated by adding the total number of passengers commuting to and from the two cities through the 12 months of that year.
Share of top-10, top-20, and top-50 routes to the total air domestic passenger traffic has declined over the years
The share of top-10, top-20, and top-50 routes to the total air domestic passenger traffic has declined over the years. A possible reason for this could be the increase in the number of routes being operated. As per the DGCA’s domestic city pair-wise data, the number of routes has gone up from 314 as of 2015 to 567 in 2021 (as of December of the respective years), an increase of 80%.
The share of the top 10 routes has dropped by 9.2 percentage points in six years from 30.3% in 2016 to 21.2% in 2021. There has been a marginal improvement in the share of the top ten routes in 2021 as compared to 2020.
Contributing to nearly 46% in 2016, the share of passenger traffic in the top-20 routes has dropped by over 12.7 percentage points to 33.1% in 2021. During this period, the share of the top-50 routes has dropped by 14.35 percentage points. The share of these routes was more than two-thirds of the total domestic air passenger traffic in 2016 which has dropped to 55% in 2021.
Passenger traffic from Major cities was used for the analysis
Among the top-50 routes for each year between 2016 and 2021, the percentage share of the domestic air passenger traffic along those routes connecting at least one of the major cities- Delhi, Mumbai, Hyderabad, Bengaluru, Kolkata, and Chennai has been calculated. The passenger traffic, say, between Delhi and Mumbai has been counted under both Delhi and Mumbai’s share of the total traffic of the top-50 routes. In other words, the share of traffic from or to these cities is those passengers who have either boarded or alighted in that particular city.
For instance, to calculate the passenger traffic contributed by Delhi in the top-50 routes, we have taken into consideration the traffic across all those routes connecting Delhi and another city in the top-50 of each year. In each of 2016, 2017, and 2020, there were 22 routes that connected Delhi and another city in the top-50 while in 2018 and 2019, there were 21 such routes. In 2022, 23 routes connected Delhi in the top-50.
Share of passenger traffic connecting Delhi contributes to more than half the traffic in top-50 routes
The share of passenger traffic connecting across routes connecting Delhi to the total passenger traffic in the top-50 routes has always been above 50%. Unlike the trend across other major cities like Mumbai and Bengaluru, the share of traffic contributed by routes connecting Delhi has been on a rise- from 51.1% in 2018 to almost 57% in 2021. Though the contribution of top-50 routes is on a decline, the share of passenger traffic in routes connecting Delhi is increasing, implying that routes connecting Delhi are the most used.
At the same time, the share of passenger traffic across routes connecting Mumbai in the top-50 routes has been on a gradual decline. The share was more than 38% in 2016 which has come down to about 25.5% in 2021. In each of the last six years, there were 11 to 12 routes connecting Mumbai in the top-50 list.
Meanwhile, share in the top-50 routes of both Bengaluru and Kolkata increased between 2016 and 2020 and dropped in 2021 while Hyderabad overtook Chennai in terms of percentage contribution to domestic air passenger traffic in the top-50 routes.
Passenger traffic in the Delhi – Mumbai route has been the highest, followed by Bengaluru – Delhi
Throughout the six-year period from 2016 to 2021, the domestic air passenger traffic in the Delhi – Mumbai route has been the greatest, followed by the Bengaluru – Delhi route. Passenger traffic in the Delhi – Kolkata route has been the fourth highest in this period.  The three routes alone contributed to 19% of all the traffic in the top-50 routes in 2016 which has declined to 15% in 2020 and 2021, higher than that contributed by the routes connecting other major cities like Chennai and Hyderabad.
Traffic in Ahmedabad – Mumbai route dropped to 40% following pandemic
Eight (8) routes that were among the top-50 back in 2016, cease to be a part of the list now. Among these 8 routes, 5 are those which connect Mumbai. Mangalore – Mumbai and Mumbai – Vadodara witnessed an increase in passenger traffic in 2017 and the number has dropped since then. Ahmedabad – Mumbai route had more than 20 lakh passengers each between 2016 and 2019, however, in 2020 and 2021, following the pandemic outbreak, the traffic on this route along with that in Chennai – Pune, has dropped drastically to less than 40% of the pre-pandemic levels.  The following routes witnessed a drop of more than 40% in the annual traffic compared to pre-pandemic levels.
Delhi-Leh reported its highest passenger traffic in 2021
Some routes that have newly entered the top-50 are listed below. The passenger traffic in Delhi – Ranchi, Ahmedabad – Bengaluru, Bagdogra – Kolkata, Goa – Hyderabad, Delhi – Raipur, and Mumbai- Varanasi in 2021 is more than that of 2016 levels. The passenger traffic in Delhi-Leh has increased by more than 3 times in 2021 compared to 2020 to reach the highest traffic on that route to date. Delhi-Leh is now among the top-50 routes. Among the 16 routes that newly entered the top-50 since 2016, 5 involved Delhi and 3 involved Bengaluru.
The growth of passenger traffic in older routes is lower than that in newer routes
The passenger traffic in the Kochi – Mumbai route which was quite popular with an annual average of 12 lakh passengers before the pandemic, has dropped to less than 40% post-pandemic whereas Delhi – Jammu & Chandigarh – Delhi, and Chandigarh – Mumbai, which was among the top-50 in 2016 and 2017 witnessed a decline in passenger traffic in 2018. However, in 2021, Delhi – Jammu recorded the highest traffic since 2016 while Chandigarh – Mumbai recorded the highest traffic since 2018.
Routes such as Bengaluru – Mumbai, Chennai – Delhi, Chennai – Mumbai, Delhi – Pune, Hyderabad – Mumbai, Kolkata – Mumbai, Bengaluru – Pune, Jaipur – Mumbai, Chennai – Kolkata, Guwahati – Kolkata, Delhi – Varanasi, and Delhi – Kochi, despite having witnessed an increase in passenger traffic before the pandemic, have dropped in their position in the top-50.
This implies that the growth in traffic in these routes is lower than that in other routes such as Delhi – Hyderabad, Delhi – Srinagar, Delhi – Patna, Delhi – Guwahati, Bagdogra – Delhi, Delhi – Ranchi, Delhi – Goa, Bengaluru – Kolkata, and Hyderabad – Kolkata which has witnessed a significant improvement in their position in the top-50. Hyderabad – Kolkata entered top-50 only in 2016 and has gone up from 45 position to 20 in the span of 6 years.
COVID-19 restrictions, infrastructure, and tourism could be some of the factors influencing this trend
Multiple factors may have influenced these trends. For instance, the caseloads and restrictions imposed due to COVID-19 influence the traffic across cities. For instance, in Mumbai, the passenger traffic could have been severely affected as the state had the highest caseload and some of the most stringent restrictions during the pandemic. Another factor that could have influenced these trends is tourism revival post the pandemic where people may have wanted to go around after being confined to homes for a long period. An example of this could be the increase in the share of passenger traffic on routes connecting Goa.
In the case of Mumbai, there have been reports of the airport facing heavy congestion even in 2018. Reports also indicate that airlines are setting up their bases in Delhi and Bengaluru airports. With the increasing number of low-cost carriers (LCCs) that need airports where things move fast to minimize time & resources, the Mumbai airport might be losing out and in turn, routes connecting Mumbai may be losing passengers.
Featured Image: Domestic Air Passenger Traffic drop post-pandemic