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How did the US & UK secure more than enough COVID-19 vaccines?
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
May 7, 2021
Though India opened up vaccination for all adults (those above 18 years) from 01 May 2021, the availability of vaccines is limited. Many states have not even begun administering vaccines to the 18-44 age group. But how did countries like the US & UK ensure there are enough vaccine doses for their entire population? Where did India go wrong? Here is a detailed review.
India is currently battling the second wave of COVID-19 with a record number of cases and deaths being reported each day. Globally, India now accounts for nearly one in every two cases reported in the past week and one in four deaths, according to WHO. The country’s tally of infections has crossed 2.1 crore cases (21 million). Around 2.3 lakh deaths due to the coronavirus infection have been reported, still, a low ‘Case Fatality Rate’ (CFR) compared to other countries.
Meanwhile, more than 180 countries around the world have started administering the COVID-19 vaccines, which is critical to fighting the pandemic. Vaccination is expected to help reduce the spread of the virus and bringing in herd immunity. Though vaccines may not completely prevent the infection, they can help in reducing the severity of the infection, and thereby reducing the burden on the health infrastructure, which is currently overwhelmed in many parts of India. Vaccination would also reduce mortality to a great extent. The vaccination could also help in reducing opportunities for the virus to mutate resulting in new variants.
Huge gap in vaccine administration across countries
Due to the limited availability of vaccines, most countries have come up with a vaccine strategy that prioritizes the vulnerable population such as the elderly and those with co-morbidities, and the frontline as well as healthcare workers. There is a stark gap between vaccination programs in different countries. According to the data compiled by the Our World in Data project at the University of Oxford, more than 1.19 billion vaccine doses have been administered as of 05 May 2021, which amounts to 16 doses for every 100 population. However, this is not uniform across countries. For instance, the US has administered 247.7 million vaccine doses as of 04 May 2021 whereas Zimbabwe had administered less than 0.56 million shots. The entire African continent had administered only 19.1 million doses as on the same day. India, as of 06 May 2021, has given 161.4 million doses. The COVID-19 Vaccine Intelligence Network (Co-WIN) digital platform was launched in December 2020 for recording vaccine data on a real-time basis in India.
India began vaccine administration in phases starting January 2021
According to the Union Health Ministry, India’s National Covid-19 Vaccination Strategy was formulated based on scientific and epidemiological evidence and focuses on systematic end-to-end planning with guidance from Global Best Practices, SoPs of WHO and recommendations of experts in the National Expert Group on Vaccine Administration for Covid-19 (NEGVAC). India began the administration of COVID-19 vaccines on 16 January 2021 in phases. The first phase focused on healthcare workers, and frontline workers like police, military, and sanitization staff, and those aged above 50 years. Persons with co-morbidities below 50 years of age were also included.
All adults in India are now eligible for the vaccine
The Phase-II of the vaccination drive was rolled out from 01 March 2021 and 01 April 2021 and focused on vaccinating the most vulnerable population (those aged more than 45 years). The population in this age group accounted for more than 80% of COVID-19 mortality in the country. Phase-III was rolled out from 01 May 2021 making those aged 18 years and above eligible for vaccination through the ‘Liberalised Pricing and Accelerated National Covid-19 Vaccination Strategy’. The pricing, procurement, and administration of vaccines have been made more flexible, at least on paper.
50% of vaccines produced in India will be procured by the Centre
As per the latest policy, Vaccine manufacturers in India will have to sell 50% of their produce to the Centre (GoI share) and the rest 50% (other than GoI share) may be sold to State Governments, private hospitals, and industrial establishments. Private hospitals will have to procure their supplies of the vaccine exclusively from the 50% supply earmarked for the other than GoI share. The price charged for the vaccination by private hospitals would be monitored as per the strategy. However, the policy does not stipulate any maximum price for the vaccination by the private hospitals.
Currently, only two vaccines that are being produced in India and received approval for restricted emergency use on 03 January 2021, are being administered in India; Covishield which is a version of the Oxford–AstraZeneca vaccine manufactured by the Serum Institute of India (SII) and Covaxin developed by Bharat Biotech in collaboration with the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) – National Institute of Virology (NIV). Only one foreign-manufactured vaccine has been approved for emergency use, that too in April 2021, which is Russia’s Sputnik-V.  Of the 161.4 million doses administered in India as of date, 146.1 million doses are of Covishield and 15.3 million doses are of Covaxin. Only about 31.2 million persons have received both doses.
India’s pace of vaccination has dropped starting April
The data on vaccination drive in India shows that the total doses being administered per week went up from 4.1 million doses in the first week of March to 24.7 million doses in the first week of April. However, the weekly average has dropped to 6.97 million doses in the first week of May 2021 according to the COWIN dashboard. This drop is significant because technically 59 crore people became eligible for vaccination on 01 May 2021 as per the liberalized policy. Even with such huge demand, the pace of vaccination fell to almost a third compared to the first week of April 2021. One of the prime reasons for this could be the shortage of vaccines, as reported by states. States had to resort to pausing vaccination drives due to the shortage. As of 06 May 2021, states had only 8.9 million COVID Vaccine doses remaining with them. Close to 2 million doses were administered on 05 May 2021. It remains to be seen if the pace picks up in the coming days & weeks.
50% of population in UK has received at least one dose of vaccine
Countries like the UK and USA are carrying out their vaccination drives effectively. As of 04 May 2021, the US has administered over 247.7 million doses and the UK has administered 50.3 million doses. 51% of the population in the UK has received at least one dose while in the US, 44.1% of the population has received at least one dose. (Israel tops the list by covering 62.5% of the population). In India, only about 11% of the population has received at least one dose so far.
The difference in the pace of vaccination in countries could be due to multiple factors. One major factor is the availability of the vaccine which was ensured by countries like the US & UK by placing advanced orders starting mid-2020. The result of the difference in strategies of various countries is clearly visible in the availability of vaccines.
The US rolled out ‘Operation Warp Speed’ in May 2020
In the US, the government rolled out  Operation Warp Seed as early as May 2020. It is a national program aimed at accelerating the development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics involving several US Federal Government departments such as Health and Human Services (HSS), Agriculture, Energy, etc., and the private sector. US’s FDA granted approval for emergency use authorization (EUA) for vaccines developed by Pfizer-BioNTech, and Moderna in December 2020. The vaccine developed by Janssen was also approved in February 2021 but has been paused due to reports of few adverse events. The vaccination drive, first for priority groups and then for all, also began in December 2020. The US even invoked the Defense Production Act which gives the government control over private-sector industry in order to ramp up the production of materials deemed necessary for national defense.
The US would have enough doses for its entire adult population by July 2021
In May 2020, when the COVID-19 cases in the US were mounting, the US government had secured about 300 million doses of AstraZeneca’s vaccine.  The Department of Health and Human Services provided $1.2 billion for this purpose. The US had also made an agreement with Moderna in August 2020 to manufacture and deliver over 100 million doses of their vaccine while clinical trials were still underway. The US government had said, ‘Moderna will manufacture the vaccine doses while clinical trials are underway. Manufacturing in parallel with clinical trials expedites the traditional vaccine development timeline’.
The US also signed an agreement for delivering 100 million doses of the vaccine with Pfizer in July 2020.  Again in December, the US government placed a second order with Pfizer for another 100 million doses. All these committed orders meant that the US has already secured almost twice the number of doses required to vaccinate the entire adult population in the USA.
In fact, in February 2021, the HHS announced the purchase of an additional 100 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines from both Pfizer and Moderna. According to the press release, a total of 600 million doses of vaccine is purchased by the U.S. government from these two companies with each company is delivering 300 million doses in regular increments through the end of July 2021. In other words, the US would have enough doses to fully vaccinate its entire adult population by July 2021.
Besides, the USA Defense Department has stated that they have set aside some amount of the vaccine in cold storage as “safety stock” in case of disruptions in distribution such as weather delays or accidents. The US aims to vaccinate 70% of the adult population with at least one COVID-19 shot by 04 July, America’s Independence Day.
UK was first country to approve a COVID-19 vaccine
UK became the first country to give emergency authorization to a COVID-19 vaccine. Approval for the vaccine developed by Pfizer was given in early December 2020. AstraZeneca’s vaccine, as well as Moderna’s vaccine, were also approved subsequently within a month. Administration of vaccines also began in December 2020 in a phased manner starting with healthcare workers.
As early as June 2020, UK proactively signed a contract for 100 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine while the vaccine was being developed. Another deal securing access to 30 million doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was announced in the following month which was later increased to 40 million doses in October 2020. Since May 2020, UK had secured orders from different manufacturers for a total of 400 million doses which was enough to vaccinate the entire UK population three times over. The UK, in April 2021, has announced that it has secured the order for another 60 million doses of Pfizer vaccine for the vaccine booster programme planned later in 2021.
India’s current vaccine orders not even enough to cover those aged 45 & above by July 2021
On the other hand, India has placed a net order of only 260 million doses of Covishield of which 150 million have already been supplied. The remaining 110 million doses would be supplied in the next few months (by the end of July 2021). Further, the Indian government had placed orders for a total of 80 million doses of Covaxin up to April 2021, which would be delivered by July 2021. The total vaccine availability with the Central Government by July 2021 of about 340 million would not be enough even to cover the estimated 30 crore population in the 45+ age group including the healthcare & frontline workers. Unless substantial numbers of foreign-made vaccines and other supplies are available in the coming months, the situation might not change.
Lack of Proactive planning hurting the Vaccine supplies
The available data & information clearly points to a vast difference in the approach to vaccine procurement by India on one hand and the countries like the US & UK on the other hand. Both the UK and US, which are ahead of other countries in the race to vaccinate the entire adult population had proactively placed orders for vaccines while research and trials were underway foreseeing the demand in future. Both these countries provided research grants and signed contracts for delivery of committed vaccine does in the second half of 2020. The grants & contracts enabled the vaccine manufacturers to ramp up production and deliver the doses on time.  Both these countries had a deadly first wave, and through effectively procuring and administering vaccines, have managed to bring down the infection curve.
However, India, despite being home to a large vaccine manufacturing base and vast experience with national immunization programmes, did not place any advance orders that would have enabled forecasting and planning. All this meant that while the vaccination is technically open to all adults, the supply is not at par to keep up with the demand. Whether such a lack of planning would hurt India’s fight against COVID-19 remains to be seen.
Featured Image: COVID-19 vaccines


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How do India’s Drone rules compare with those of other countries?
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
August 31, 2021
The government has recently notified the new ‘Drone Rules, 2021’ to simplify the process of registration, granting of permission & required licenses. The rules are aimed at encouraging the usage of drones for economic benefit across many sectors. But how do these rules compare with those in countries like USA & UK?
The Ministry of Civil Aviation (MoCA) has recently notified the  Drone Rules, 2021. These new rules are considered to be more liberalized and replace the earlier rules notified in March-2021 (UAS Rules, 2021).  As per the statement issued by the government, the earlier version of the rules i.e., UAS Rules, 2021 were perceived to be restrictive by academics, industry & various other stakeholders, involving a lot of paperwork & permissions to operate Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS), also referred to as Drones. Considering the feedback and the potential of drones to contribute to the varied sectors of the economy, the Government of India (GoI) has decided to take a more liberalized approach.
The government envisages that encouragement to the usage of drones can aid in economic growth in view of the reach & versatility they offer in reaching out to remote & inaccessible areas.
While there are diverse benefits that drones offer and a more liberalized approach can help in encouraging their usage, there are potential challenges and risks that drones pose. The recent attack on Jammu Air Force Station using Unmanned Ariel Vehicles/Drones is an example of the harmful use of drones. Furthermore, there are concerns around unregulated usage of drones on the environment which impacts the wildlife, particularly the avian species.
In this context, we look at the new ‘Drone rules’ notified by GOI and review the rules relating to Unmanned Ariel vehicles in other countries.
Definition & Classification
‘Drone Rules 2021’, define a drone as an aircraft that can operate autonomously or can be operated remotely without a pilot on board.’
Drones are classified into five types based on their weight (including maximum payload)
– Nano drone: Less than or equal to 250 gms.
– Micro drone: Greater than 250 gms, less than or equal to 2 kgs.
– Small drone: Greater than 2 Kg and less than or equal to 25 kgs,
– Middle drone: Greater than 25 kgs and less than or equal to 150 kg
– Large drone: Greater than 150 kgs.
Significant relaxations on registration & approvals
Tweeting about the new Drone Rules, Prime Minister Narendra Modi stated that the new rules are based on the premise of trust & self-certification and that there is a significant reduction in the approvals, compliance & entry-barriers.
The new Drone Rules usher in a landmark moment for this sector in India. The rules are based on the premise of trust and self-certification. Approvals, compliance requirements and entry barriers have been significantly reduced. https://t.co/Z3OfOAuJmp
This is evident from the relaxations offered as a part of the new rules. Few of the important relaxations include:
The government envisages the development of Digital Sky platform & Drone corridor
Among the other key provisions of the ‘Drone rules, 2021’ is the government’s proposal to develop the Digital Sky platform. It is proposed to be a single-window platform for all the required approvals & clearances.
The Digital Sky platform will have an interactive airspace map that would divide the country into – Green, Yellow & Red zones. The demarcation of these zones would help the drone operators to understand where they can or cannot fly their drones. This platform would provide a secure and scalable platform that will support drone technology frameworks, that are designed to enable flight permission digitally and manage unmanned aircraft operations & traffic.
As part of the liberalized regulations, the government has provided relaxation within these zones. The extant of airport perimeter is reduced to 12 km from the earlier 45 km.  As per the new rules, there is no need for flight permissions to fly up to 400 feet in green zones and up to 200 feet in the area between 8-12 km from the airport perimeter.
Apart from the development of the Digital Sky Platform, the Ministry of Civil Aviation also proposes to facilitate the development of Drone corridors. These would be used for cargo deliveries. There is a proposal to set up a Drone promotion council that aims to facilitate a business-friendly regulatory regime.
Among the other important provisions is the provision of safety features – real-time tracking beacon, geo-fencing, etc. The industry would be given a 6-month lead time for compliance before these are notified.
Registration of Drones is compulsory in the USA
Some of the developed countries are ahead in recognizing the increased use of drones and have laid down rules & regulations that monitor the usage of these unmanned aircraft and encouraging their usage within certain restrictions.
United States of America (USA)
As per the regulations of the USA’s Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), it is legal to operate Unmanned Aircraft Systems in the USA. However, every drone is compulsorily required to be registered. The registration is valid for up to a period of three years and requires to be renewed on expiry.
The rules for operating a drone vary based on the type of drone user. As per FAA, drone users are categorized into:
Prior to the application for drone registration, drone users are required to pass certain tests. In the case of recreational users, they are required to undergo – The Recreational UAS Safety Test (TRUST). In the case of a certified user, they are required to clear FAA’s Knowledge Test.
Regulations regarding the extent of the flight, the perimeter of air space, etc. vary as per the type of user and according to the specific State. However, there are restrictions on the usage of drones in Security sensitive air spaces, including – Military bases, national landmarks, critical infrastructure, etc.
Similar to the proposed Digital Sky platform, the USA already has an App – B4UFLY mobile app, which provides interactive maps of fly zones and restricted zones.
United Kingdom (UK)
The Civil Aviation Authority in the UK lays down the rules & procedures regarding the operation of drones & unmanned air crafts. As per the ‘Drone and Model Aircraft Code’, it is illegal to fly a drone without having the required IDs. In the UK, two types of IDs are required to fly drones– Flyer ID (indicating that one has passed the basic flying test) & Operator ID (which is required to be labeled on the drone). Further, the rules also lay down the category of the drone. The rules & regulations regarding – where to fly, the proximity to crowds, etc. vary based on the category.
As per the restrictions in the UK, the drone should not fly more than 120 meters from the closest point on earth. Even in the case of flying from an elevated surface like hills & mountains, care needs to be taken the drone is not at an elevation of more than 120 m from the closest point on the earth’s surface. Furthermore, there needs to be a minimum horizontal distance of 50m between people & the drones. A perimeter of 150 m around recreational, residential, commercial & industrial areas is considered as no-fly zones, and an area of around 5 Kms around airports & airfields is considered as no-fly zones.  Specific authorizations are required if one has to fly beyond the specified zone.
European Union (EU)
The EU has also devised its own set of rules for the operation of drones in EU countries. As per these rules passed by European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), there are three categories of operators & drones.
As per EU regulations, most recreational drones are categorized under the Low-risk category. The drones under this category are further divided into three different types.
EU mandates that all Drone operators register with their respective country of residence. Across the USA, UK & EU countries, the vertical limit for flying a drone is 120 m (400 ft) above the earth’s surface.
While the liberalized rules are encouraging, need for proper oversight on ownership & usage
The new Drone rules, 2021 are a welcome step in encouraging the usage of drones in the country. The government proceeding with a new set of liberal rules despite a first-of-its-kind drone attack in India in late June 2021, indicates the intent of the government in this direction.
In his tweet, the Prime Minister highlighted the expected benefits of these new rules.  The press release by the Ministry of Civil Aviation, states the different sectors where drones can be useful and highlights the proposed significance in economic growth.
As per BIS Research, the Global Drone market is expected to touch $ 28.47 billion this year of which India’s share could be around 4.25% i.e. around $ 1.21 billion, indicating a potential market space that the country can take advantage of with the more liberalized rules.
However, the recent drone attack and further sightings of drones highlight the potential risk which the drones carry in the sensitive zones. India’s investment in counter drones can offer a solution to counter any drone attacks while continuing with liberal rules in encouraging the usage of drones in other areas.
A significant aspect observed in the rules of other countries is the compulsory registration of the drones and the certifications for both the usage & for the operators. While the Indian rules have been relaxed a bit regarding the registrations and authorizations, the mode & nature of the registration mechanism, certification & licensing for remote pilots, devices, etc. remains to be seen.
Featured Image: India’s Drone Rules

source: news-factly

license: Creative Commons - Attribution - https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

author: Sai Krishna Muthyanolla


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Review: How does India’s NIF Compare with GIF for SDGs?
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
July 10, 2023
The 2023 progress report for the national indicators identified for the 17 Sustainable Development Goals was recently released by MoSPI. MoSPI constituted a High-Level Steering Committee (HLSC) to regularly review and refine the National Indicator Framework with a view to including additional indicators and modifying or deleting the existing indicators.
In 2015, all the member states of the United Nations (UN) adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development which gives a shared blueprint for peace and prosperity for people and the planet. A total of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) which constitute the core of the 2030 Agenda were also adopted. The SDGs are a comprehensive list of global goals integrating social, economic, and environmental dimensions of development. The 17 goals are interlinked, and each goal has targets that countries should meet by 2030 in order to achieve the goal. For each target, there are measurable indicators which help countries regularly monitor and evaluate their performance and take appropriate actions to ensure they are on the right track to achieve the goal.
231 unique indicators have been included in the Global Indicators to monitor SDGs
The Global Indicator Framework (GIF) for SDGs, as the title implies, is a framework of indicators that facilitates the global monitoring of the 169 targets of the 17 SDGs and allows guiding actions towards the achievement of the goals by 2030. It consists of a total of 248 indicators of which 231 are unique as some indicators may be used to measure progress towards multiple goals. These indicators are designed to be measurable, easily understandable, and relevant to the specific targets of each goal. They cover a wide range of topics from poverty eradication, education, health, gender equality, clean energy, and climate action, to sustainable consumption and production.
MoSPI developed the National Indicator Framework in 2018
In India, recognizing the significance of monitoring & tracking the progress of SDGs, and the need for reliable data for the same, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), Government of India developed a National Indicator Framework (NIF). This monitoring and evaluation framework was introduced in 2018 and consisted of 306 national indicators along with identified data sources and periodicity after due consultation with concerned Ministries, Departments, UN Agencies, and other stakeholders.
The NIF includes indicators that align with the SDG global indicators and includes indicators which are tailored to suit India’s specific requirements. The NIF specifies the data sources and periodicity for each indicator. The data sources for the indicators used in the NIF include official government statistics from different surveys, administrative data, and various censuses. The responsibility for collecting and reporting data lies with various line Ministries & Departments. In 2019, the Ministry also issued a circular with guidelines for states to develop their own State Indicator Framework. Most states have developed the same.
Just like the GIF, NIF too is evolving in nature. MoSPI constituted a High-Level Steering Committee (HLSC) to regularly review and refine the NIF with a view to including additional indicators and modifying or deleting the existing indicators. The committee includes members from various Ministries, NITI & Aayog.
Number of indicators dropped from 306 in 2019 to 284 in 2023
As of June 2023, there are 284 indicators in the NIF. Every year, indicators are added or removed from the NIF as part of refining by the HLSC committee. For instance, under Goal 17: Partnership for the Goals, there were no indicators in 2019 when the total number of indicators considered was the highest – 306 indicators. However, in the subsequent year, in 2020, 13 indicators were considered, and in 2023, only 12 were included. Likewise, in the case of Goal 15: Life on Land, the number of indicators dropped from 21 to 14 in the five years while for Goal 8: Decent Work and Economic Growth, 16 indicators were dropped in the same period. A comparison of the number of indicators for each of the 17 goals under NIF and GIF is shown in the following chart.
Of the 284 indicators, about 140 can be partially or exactly mapped with the global indicators. 37 indicators are partially related to the global indicators while the remaining 103 are exactly the same as the global indicators.
India is ranked 112 out of 162 countries globally
As the world is at the midpoint of implementing the SDGs & the 2030 Agenda, tracking the current progress is critical. According to the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Solutions Network, in 2023, India has been ranked 112 out of 162 countries in terms of the SDG Index with a score of 63.45 out of 100. Compared to 2019, India’s position has improved by 3 and its score by around 3 points. Finland ranks first with a score of 86.76 followed by Sweden with a score of 85.98. Out of the 193 member states, South Sudan ranks the lowest (166) with a score of 38.68. Among South and East Asian nations, India is ranked 16 out of the total 19 countries in this region which have been scored. Pakistan and Myanmar, both with the lowest score in the region, are the only neighbouring countries that stand below India in the rankings. Among the BRICS nations, India is at the bottom.
India’s progress is on track for only 2 out of 17 goals
According to the Global SDG report for 2023, India’s performance with respect to only 2 Goals is on track – Goal 1: No Poverty and Goal 12: Responsible Consumption & Production. While India’s progress in Goal 15: Life on Land and Goal 10: Reduced Inequalities has decreased, the performance has been stagnant for Goal 2: Zero Hunger, Goal 11: Sustainable cities and communities, Goal 13: Climate Action & Goal 18: Peace, Justice & Strong Institutions. For the remaining 9 Goals, India’s progress has only improved moderately.
The Lancet study, ‘Progress on Sustainable Development Goal indicators in 707 districts of India: a quantitative mid-line assessment using the National Family Health Surveys, 2016 and 2021’ emphasized concerning trends with respect to 19 out of 33 SDG indicators assessed. For indicators such as Access to Basic Services, Wasting and Overweight Children, Anaemia, Child Marriage, Partner Violence, Tobacco Use, and Modern Contraceptive Use, it was observed that more than 75% of the districts covered in the study were off target. Moreover, most of these districts were in the states of Madhya Pradesh, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, and Jharkhand.
The progress report for the national indicators for 2023 recently released by MoSPI highlighted the gains made in certain indicators under each goal. Some achievements highlighted are the decline in underweight and stunted children, increase in gross enrolment ratio, and improvement in Maternal Mortality Ratio & Under 5 Mortality Ratio, among others. However, there are some indicators such as the prevalence of anaemia among women and children that has increased, a significant share of persons spending 10 to 25% of their income on healthcare, increase in the gender wage gap, among others. These need to be identified and drawn attention to, for India to be able to meet the SDG targets in the next seven years. The pandemic has stalled the progress of most countries and concerted efforts should be made to overcome the additional challenges on account of the pandemic.


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Review: How have the Current Situation Index (CSI) and Future Expectation Index (FEI) change through the pandemic?
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
February 8, 2022
In India, the Consumer Confidence Survey (CSS) by the RBI comprises of Current Situation Index (CSI) and Future Expectation Index (FEI) and gauges consumer perception and expectation on various parameters – Economic situation, Employment, Price Level, Income, Inflation, Spending etc. Here are how these indices changed through the pandemic.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) recently published the January 2022 edition of the monthly bulletin. Four articles highlighting different aspects of the economy were covered in this bulletin – State of the economy, Indian Agriculture, Consumer Confidence in India, Foreign Direct Investments in India.
Consumer Confidence about the current business & job markets along with their future expectation is a key indicator for countries including India to ascertain the current situation of the economy and formulate policies accordingly.
In India, the Consumer Confidence Survey (CSS) comprises of Current Situation Index (CSI) and Future Expectation Index (FEI) and gauges consumer perception and expectation on various parameters – Economic situation, Employment, Price Level, Income, Inflation, Spending, etc. Here is a detailed explainer on the Consumer Confidence Survey and what it indicates.
As the country is on the road to recovery post the two waves of COVID-19 and related control measures, the Consumer Confidence Survey offers key insights on the impact of COVID-19 on consumer confidence.
In an earlier story, we analysed the results of the March 2021 round of the Consumer Confidence Survey. After that, India experienced a devastating second wave of COVID-19 during April – June 2021. In this context, the latest round of Consumer Confidence Survey conducted for November 2021, assumes importance.
As part of the January 2022 bulletin, RBI published an article titled, ‘The Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic on Consumer Confidence in India,’ which analyses the impact of COVID-19 on Consumer confidence, based on the Consumer Confidence surveys and related studies.
While there are signs of improvement, Consumer confidence is still largely pessimistic
In the earlier story, we highlighted that Consumer Confidence weakened significantly during the March 2021 round of the survey, with the Current Situation Index (CSI) falling to 53.1.
With the onset of a severe second wave of COVID-19 and the ensuing lockdown measures across the country, consumer confidence has further dipped. This was obvious in the next two rounds in May-2021 & July-2021, with CSI of 48.5 & 48.6 respectively. With the second wave weakening post-July 2021, there was an uptick in consumer confidence.
The CSI during November 2021 was 62.3. This is still in the pessimistic territory of below 100. While COVID-19 has heavily impacted consumer confidence, it ought to be noted that India has been in this zone much before the COVID-19 pandemic set in.
While the CSI presents the consumer sentiment of the current business & job market conditions, the Future Expectations Index (FEI) indicates the future expectation in the business conditions, employment, income, etc. over the next year.
The FEI in the latest round is more optimistic, compared to the CSI during the second wave of the pandemic.
RBI’s article draws the correlation between the performance of the economy and consumer confidence. India’s GDP was in a downward trend since the last quarter of 2017-18, with the COVID-19 pandemic further contributing towards the decline in the economy. After negative growth in GDP during the pandemic, the GDP has registered a positive growth since Q3 of 2020-21.
This recovery could translate into improved consumer confidence. While the FEI has certainly improved, there isn’t an overwhelming improvement. This could indicate that the consumers are unsure about the aftereffects of the pandemic in the foreseeable future.
Contrary to projected numbers of the third wave starting January 2022, the reported caseload has been lower. Unlike the second wave, the third wave has also been a milder one leading to fewer hospitalizations and fewer deaths. This also meant fewer restrictions and lockdowns across the country, without majorly affecting business activity. This could boost Consumer confidence in the upcoming surveys.
After historic lows, there is an improvement in Consumers Perception of Economy
The Consumer Confidence Survey gauges consumer perception and expectations on 8 parameters. Among these, economic situation, employment, prices, inflation can be considered as consumers view the overall economy.
Here is a snapshot of Consumer Confidence regarding these 4 parameters.
Economic Situation
As reflected in the overall Consumer survey, there is an improvement in consumer perception of the overall economic situation over the last two rounds i.e., in September 2021 & November 2021. But it is still in a negative territory, with a larger share of the respondents considering that the economy is in a worse situation.
Employment
In March 2021, the current perception was -62.4, which worsened further during the second wave with -74.9 in May 2021. The fall in the number of cases and the economic opening meant that the perception improved in further rounds of the survey.
The future expectation also took a hit during the second wave, with it reaching a record low of -13 in May 2021. In the latest November 2021 round, the consumer’s future expectation about employment is optimistic at 15.4.
Prices & Inflation
In contrast to an improved perception about Economic Situation and Employment, the consumer perception about Prices & inflation has worsened.
In March 2021, the current Perception was – 92.6, which sort of improved during the second wave. However, in the recent round of CCS, it fell to -94.5. The same is the case with inflation where it fell from -86.1 in March 2021 to -89.3 in November 2021.
The concern is that apart from the dwindling confidence in the current situation of prices & inflation, the future expectation has also worsened.  The FEI fell from -64.4 to -66 for Prices, and in cases of inflation, it fell from -76.6 to -77.5 between March 2021 and November 2021.
Supply chain disruptions, price shocks, etc., seemed to have a bearing on consumers’ perception of prices & inflation, as per RBI’s article.
While a majority feel the incomes have reduced, there is also a perception of increased spending
The other Four parameters i.e., income, spending, essential spending, non-essential spending provides insights into consumers’ assessment of their own situation.
Income
A greater number of consumers feel that their income has increased during the November 2021 round of the survey compared to that of March 2021. However, this is after a fall during July 2021 at -59.1. The current perception is at -40.6 in November 2021. While there is a substantial improvement in the current perception, the same isn’t the case with FEI. The expectation has only slightly improved from March 2021.
In March 2021, the FEI for income was at 33.4, which improved to only 35.4 in November 2021. However, compared to during the peak of the pandemic, it is a major improvement from 27 in May 2021.
Spending, Essential & Non -essential spending
Household spending is considered to be one of the more resilient parameters of the survey.
While the expectations are less impacted by pandemic, the current situation has a major impact
As per the essay in RBI’s bulletin, the current perception of the general economic situation is more aligned to employment scenarios and prices while with spending, it is marginal. In the case of household income, it has become more coherent with the economic perception during the pandemic. The perception of a slowdown in the economy during the pandemic has a direct correlation with the employment situation and household income. The sentiment improved as the pandemic situation has improved.
The increase in essential spending also correlates with the perception of the economy, where the spending was mostly on essentials compared to non-essentials. Essential spending is related to prices while non-essential spending is more discretionary. While the vagaries of the pandemic have had an impact on how the consumers perceive their current situation, the future expectation has largely remained less impacted compared to pre-pandemic.

created: February 8, 2022


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Review: How have the ‘Digital Payment’ systems evolved in the last decade?
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
February 4, 2021
The last decade has witnessed an exponential increase in the adoption of digital payments by a large section of the population. This was driven by increased access to the internet & the mobile phone. Here is a review of the evolution of various digital payments systems in India between 2010 & 2020.
Recently, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) released a booklet on Payment Systems titled ‘Journey in the Second Decade of the Millennium’. The book documents the developments in payment systems in the country in the last decade from 2010 to 2020. In India, the period 2010 to 2020 witnessed many defining moments such as the expansion of digital payments, the introduction of wallet applications, etc. which influenced consumer behaviour and hence resulted in the transformation of the payment ecosystem in the country. RBI had released booklets on payment systems earlier in 1998 and 2008. In this story, we briefly look at some of the developments in the payment systems through this period.
RBI to supervise payment systems in India
The Payment and Settlement Systems Act, 2007 provides for the regulation and supervision of payment systems in India. The Act appoints RBI to supervise the payment systems in India. The payment system has been defined under the Act as “a system that enables payment to be effected between a payer and a beneficiary, involving clearing, payment or settlement service or all of them, but does not include a stock exchange”.
NPCI is an umbrella organization for operating retail payment systems in India
RBI has authorized various Payment System Operators (PSOs) such as NPCI, CCIL, ATM networks, TReDS platform providers, to name a few, to operate payment systems in India. National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) was established in 2008 by RBI and Indian Banks’ Association as an umbrella organization for operating retail payment systems in India. The role of NPCI is to provide infrastructure to the banking system in India for physical and electronic payment systems. It works on bringing innovations in retail payment systems. Some retail payments products brought about by NPCI are IMPS, RuPay card scheme, UPI, NACH, Aadhaar-enabled Payments System (AePS), and BBPS. Even Cheque Truncation System (CTS) was transferred to NPCI. With NPCI International Payments Limited, NPCI is also working towards the internationalization of RuPay and UPI.
Paper clearing has been made faster and secure
Initially, cheque/DD were the only alternative payment options to cash. To clear cheques, a centralized payment and settlement system was needed. Magnetic Ink Character Recognition (MICR) clearing system was brought in the mid-1980s under which cheque clearing was carried out electronically through the use of technology. High-Value Clearing was introduced during the eighties (and discontinued in 2009) for clearing cheques of the value of Rupees one lakh and above. Following a pilot study in 2008, the RBI rolled out CTS under which image of the cheque was enough for payment processing. Standards were framed in 2010 to include mandatory security features such as paper, watermark, void pantograph, etc. Banks were also permitted to include other features on cheques without disrupting the mandatory features.
With effect from January 2021, the RBI has introduced the ‘Positive Pay System’ for cheques under which the issuer must enter details like date, beneficiary’s name, payee, and amount in NPCI’s digital platform. The details entered will be cross-checked with the presented cheque in banks for averting fraudulent actions.
RBI has issued standards for payment systems
Standardization is necessary for the harmonization of payment processing across payment systems. The standards set by the RBI for payment systems are;
Apart from these, there are international standards such as ISO 20022, SWIFT, and Legal Entity Identifier (LEI).
Digital payments have grown substantially in the last decade due to increased access to mobile and internet
In the last ten years, there has been a shift in payment preference from paper clearing to digital payment. RBI data indicates that in 2010-11, paper clearing constituted 60% of the total retail payments and dropped to 3% in 2019-20 by volume, while retail electronic payments increased from 18% to 61%. In terms of value, paper clearing comprised 89% of the total retail payment system in 2010-11 which fell to 20% in 2019-20. Digital payments have grown from 498 crore transactions with a value of Rs. 96 lakh crores in 2010-11 to 1623 crore transactions with a value of Rs. 3,435 lakh crores in 2019-20.
This shift is attributed to the increased penetration of mobile phones and the internet in the country which has helped in the quicker adoption of cashless transactions. The report states that low-value payments dominate the volume/turnover, and products that afford real-time, instantaneous transfers are the most preferred modes of payment as revealed by data.
Many digital payment options have evolved over the years
As compared to the onset of the decade, there are many digital payment options available to consumers today which even operate throughout the day.  These are:
For periodic payments:
Card based payments:
Direct Transfer:
Fast payments through IMPS & UPI are becoming popular
Fast payments are characterized by speed and continuous availability. IMPS and UPI are the two fast payment systems existing in India. In 2010, India became the fourth country to introduce IMPS with an Rs. 2 lakh limit. Even non-bank entities can participate in these payments. On the other hand, UPI is a mobile-based fast payment system under which bank details need not be shared with the remitter. It helps in money transfer with persons, merchants, utility bill payments, and QR code-based payments. Interoperability is also a factor that RBI considers important. As per the data with the RBI, the two systems handled 8.35 crore transactions on a daily basis for a value of Rs. 22,854 crores in December 2020. The adoption of the two fast payment systems has exponentially increased in the last few years with them becoming the preferred mode of small payments for a majority of the people.
Challenges still persist
Though the adoption of digital payments has taken off exponentially in the last few years, multiple challenges still exist in the country for the government to achieve its goal of cashless India such as connectivity issues, poor infrastructure, and lack of awareness about the payment options. Even with respect to digital payments, issues of security and privacy, fraud, and other related risks need to be addressed for more people to use digital payments.
Featured Image: Digital Payments in India

created: February 4, 2021


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Review: How many missions to Mars have been undertaken so far?
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
February 25, 2021
NASA’s Perseverance Mars rover landed on the red planet recently. It was launched on 30 July 2020 under Mission Mars 2020, exploiting the closest approach phenomenon. But how many countries have launched a mission to Mars? How many of them have been successful? Here are all the details.
The geographical & other conditions in Mars are in proximity with that of Earth which has resulted in speculation that there is a possibility of life on the red planet. Mars is a little more than half the Earth’s size with a gravity of only 38% that of Earth. Roughly, the land area in Mars is equal to the area of continents on Earth. Scientists have also suggested that there must have been a vast ocean in Mars’ northern hemisphere. Some other visible features on Mars may be that of ancient flowing liquids such as river valleys, streams, deltas, and basins, according to Mars experts.
Distance between Mars and Earth is the least once every 26 months
Approximately once every 26 months, the Earth and Mars are aligned such that the distance between the two is the closest. It is during this period that many Mars missions have taken place as the time of travel and hence expenditure will be the lowest. Hence, most Mars missions are launched about every two years during this period. The last time Mars made its closest approach to Earth was on 06 October 2020. The next Mars Close Approach is 8 December 2022, when the Red Planet will be only 62.07 million kilometres away from Earth.
NASA’s Perseverance landed in Mars
A rover is a vehicle used for exploring the surface of a planet or moon. NASA’s Perseverance Mars rover that landed on the red planet recently was launched on 30 July 2020 under Mission Mars 2020, exploiting the closest approach phenomenon. The key objectives of the 2020 mission are to seek signs of ancient life and collect samples of rock and regolith (broken rock and soil), for returning to Earth, if possible. Perseverance rover has landed on the Jezero Crater, where it will explore the delta of a river that once flowed into the lake that the crater held once upon a time. The sediments are a promising place to look for fossil chemical signatures of ancient Martian microbes. NASA has also released the video of the landing.
The next mission of NASA to Mars, known as Mars Sample Return, has been planned for 2022 during the next closest approach. Under the Mars Sample Return mission, as the title suggests, an effort will be made to bring samples of Martian rocks and soil collected by Perseverance back to Earth for research purposes.
Dozens of spacecrafts have been sent to Mars since 1960s
Since the 1960s, dozens of spacecrafts have been sent to the red planet. Initial missions mainly comprised of flybys and spacecraft that snapped many photos of Mars as they zoomed past the planet. With advancements in science and technology, later probes entered the orbit of Mars. Now, landers and rovers have landed on the Mars surface. However, only about 60% of these missions were successful.
Many other countries have begun Mars exploration in addition to the US and Russia
Between 1960 and 1996, the US and USSR (and later Russia) were the only countries that had attempted to set out on Mars missions. In fact, of the total 48 missions recorded so far, the US and USSR (Russia) account for 43 of them. Besides these two countries, only India, China, Japan, UAE, and European Space Agency have carried out Mars missions. While Japan launched its mission in 1998 and Europe launched in 2003, the remaining three carried out their missions only after 2010.
The details of the missions of countries other than the US and Russia are;
In 1998, Japan had attempted to send an orbiter, Nozomi, to Mars to study its upper atmosphere. Japan was the first country other than the US and Russia to send a spacecraft to Mars. But the mission failed due to fuel issues. Though the mission was unsuccessful, the spacecraft provided crucial information about the deep space environment.
Later, in 2003, the European Space Agency sent the Beagle 2 lander to the Mars Express Mission which was released from its mothercraft in December 2003. But nothing was heard from the lander after its scheduled touchdown.
China’s Yinghuo-1 and the Russian Phobos-Grunt spacecraft were launched together in 2011. Yinghou-1 was not only China’s first Mars orbiter but also China’s first interplanetary mission. Phobos-Grunt that was sent to study Mars’ moon and send back soil samples to Earth was Russia’s first interplanetary mission since the failure of the Mars 96 mission. However, this mission was unsuccessful due to a spacecrafts’ defect.
In 2013, India created history by becoming the first Asian country to have reached the Martian orbit. India also became the first country to have successfully entered Martian orbit in its maiden attempt. India’s Mars Orbiter Mission was sent to explore Mars’s surface features, morphology, mineralogy, and the Martian atmosphere to research the possibility or the past existence of life on the planet.
ExoMars programme was a joint mission of the European Space Agency and the Russian space agency (Roscosmos). The Schiaparelli EDM (Entry, Descent, and Landing Demonstrator Module) was launched together with ExoMars Trace Gas Orbiter in 2016 to look for evidence of methane and other atmospheric gases. The orbiter successfully reached the orbit of Mars but the connection with EDM got lost upon arrival.
UAE and China have also sent spacecrafts in 2020
Besides NASA’s Perseverance, the United Arab Emirates and China have also launched their own spacecraft to Mars in the 2020 closest approach window. UAE launched its spacecraft ‘Hope’ on 20 July 2020 to orbit Mars and study its atmosphere and weather patterns, making UAE the fifth country to launch a spacecraft in the Martian orbit. Within 3 days, China launched Tianwen-1, a combined orbiter, lander, and rover. Reportedly, the Chinese spacecraft has entered a temporary parking orbit around Mars and is expected to land the rover on Mars in the coming months. If the mission succeeds, China will be the third country after the US and Russia to have landed a vehicle on Mars.
The list of all missions to Mars in the chronological order and by country is given below:
More missions have been planned in the coming decade
Over the last decade or so, it is observed that other countries have started taking part in interplanetary exploration which was once dominated by the US and Russia. In fact, in the coming decade, many Mars missions are planned. These are ISRO’s Mangalyaan-2 or the Mars Orbiter Mission- 2 planned for 2024, ESA’s ExoMars rover planned for 2022, and NASA’s Mars Sample Return planned for 2022 as seen earlier. SpaceX has plans to transport cargo and people to Mars in the near future.

created: February 25, 2021


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Review: Huge Pendency of Cases Where Prosecution is Launched by The IT Department Following Search & Seizure
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
February 23, 2023
Survey, Search & Seizure operations of the Income Tax department create a huge media spectacle. But how are these operations different from each other? What is the status of the cases filed following these operations?
The issue of ‘Black Money’ is one of the most debated topics in public forums in India. Discussions around tax havens, offshore financial hubs, shell companies dominate these debates. Multiple institutions including the Supreme Court of India, and elected representatives have unequivocally expressed concern about the growth of black money. The adverse effects of black money on a nation’s economy are very well documented, hence the growing concern of policymakers about black money.
In today’s story, we look at the different aspects of black money, the statutory processes to unearth it and some statistics related to the Income Tax searches and seizures.
Black Money and sources
Even though ‘black money’ is used in regular conversations & debates, there is no precise definition of what constitutes black money. Other connotations like ‘shadow economy’, ‘parallel economy’, and ‘dirty money’ are also used sometimes. The word ‘black money’ is not defined under the Income Tax Act, 1961; Customs Act,1962; CGST Act, 2017; and Central Excise Act, 1944. The National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), in its report, ‘Aspects of Black Economy in India (1985)’ defined black money as ‘aggregates of income that are taxable but not reported to tax authorities’. In simpler terms, black money is a word used in everyday speech to describe funds that are not entirely lawful in the owner’s possession. However, black money may also mean money that is earned through illegal means.
There are three primary sources of black money- Crime, Corruption and Business. The first source, ‘crime’, is the money that might have come from illegal acts that are against the law, such as crime, drug trafficking, sexual exploitation and trafficking, bank fraud, and terrorism, all of which are punishable by the state’s legal system. The ‘corruption’ component includes the money received by graft or bribery, and siphoning public money by leakages, among others. The ‘business’ component could be in the most common process of tax evasion using shell companies, tax havens, and under-disclosing of incomes and expenditures. It is important to understand that in the first two sources, ‘crime’ and ‘corruption’, black money is generated through legally non-permissible activity while in the ‘business’ component, the activity is legally permissible. A large share of black money is through the ‘business’ component.
Tackling unaccounted/black money
Successive governments have been trying to minimize, if not eradicate the menace of black money through various means- using legislations, capacity expansions and plugging the existing loopholes. The Income Tax Department is primarily responsible for fighting the threat of black money. To accomplish the goal of deterring tax evasion, it employs the tools of scrutiny assessment as well as information-based investigations to identify tax evasion and punish it in accordance with Income Tax Act regulations. Further, The Black Money (Undisclosed Foreign Income and Assets) and Imposition of Tax Act, 2015 (BMA, 2015), which came into effect on 01 July 2015, is a new, comprehensive law that imposes strict penalties. The BMA, 2015’s one-time three-month compliance window, which ended on 30 September 2015, saw 648 declarations regarding undeclared foreign assets valued Rs. 4164 crores. Over Rs. 2476 crores in such cases was collected as tax and penalties.
According to the Prevention of Money Laundering Act, 2002 (PMLA), the offence of wilful attempt to evade tax, etc. in relation to undeclared foreign income/assets is a Scheduled Offense, for which the Directorate of Enforcement (ED) takes the appropriate action, including identification of the proceeds of crime generated, provisional attachments, and filing of prosecution complaints in appropriate cases. Proceeds of crime of Rs. 42.57 crores have been attached or seized throughout the course of the investigation in 13 PMLA cases including predicate offences involving BMA, 2015 violations, and three prosecution reports have been made. Also, under section 37A of the FEMA, assets worth Rs. 93.07 crores have been taken in 05 cases.
Among all the strategies, income tax ‘search and seizures’ is the most commonly adopted strategy to unearth undisclosed incomes or detect tax evasions. The investigation wing of the IT department deals with investigations to detect tax evasions and carries out operations such as ‘surveys’, ‘search and seizures’ to gather evidence of such unauthorized tax evasions.
Income tax ‘raids’- Types and differences
Though used commonly by media and the public at large, the Income Tax Act, 1961 does not mention the word ‘raid’. However, as mentioned earlier, the income tax department is equipped with powers under the IT Act, 1961 to conduct search and seizure operations.
Section 132 (1) of the Income Tax Act, 1961, authorizes the officers to carry out search and seizure operations. Surveys are carried out under Sections 133(A)(1), 133(A)(5), and 133(B). Usually, all types of surveys, searches and seizures are mentioned under the umbrella term ‘raid’. However, there is a difference between them as explained below.
The aftermath of ‘survey’ and ‘search and seizure’ operations
The Manual of Office Procedure provides for the procedures to be followed while conducting any operations of survey, search and seizure.  As mentioned earlier, surveys are carried out under sections 133(A)(1), 133(A)(5) and 133(B) of the Income Tax Act, 1961. After the survey is completed, a self-contained report for surveys under any section shall be prepared about the operation and result of the survey, which has details including, name and assessee, details of PAN, the purpose of the survey, a brief narration of work done and material found during the survey, details of statements recorded, among others. In addition,
For ‘searches’ and ‘seizures’, a panchnama is prepared at the end of each day of such search.
Further, the search party shall prepare a report.
Trend in search & seizure actions conducted by the Income Tax Department
The data from the parliamentary responses indicate that in there is no uniform trend that can be observed in the number of search and seizure operations and the value of assets seized. However, the year 2016-17 registered a higher number of searches and seizures. The demonetization and the aftermath could probably be the reason behind such high numbers. The value of assets seized is highest in 2018-19 with Rs. 1567 crores, followed by Rs. 1470 crores in 2016-17.
Huge pendency in search & seizure cases
Income Tax searches and seizures create a huge uproar in the media and the public at large. Allegations and counter-allegations are levelled. However, the end outcomes of such operations are rarely spoken about. The data of the prosecutions launched by the department and the convictions indicate abysmal performance in the further stages of the investigation. There is a huge pendency in the search and seizure cases, and with the addition of new cases in which prosecution is launched every year, this pendency is expected to only grow.

created: February 23, 2023


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IFPRI’s latest reports highlights the grave risks of Climate Change on Food systems
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
May 17, 2022
The International Food Policy Research Institute’s (IFPRI) recently released the 2022 report titled, ‘Climate change and food systems’. The report highlights the grave risks climate change poses to agricultural production, increased risk of hunger including estimates of impact by 2030 & 2050. Here is a review.
Climate change impacts almost everything. But the profound impact could be seen in our food systems, extending from the way we produce food to the consumption and dietary patterns. This impact is more widespread in countries that are predominantly dependent on agriculture and food systems, both directly and indirectly. India is one of the large & growing economies that is considerably dependent on the agriculture sector. India has the second-largest arable land in the world and has around 46 of the 60 major soil types of the world. It is the largest source of livelihood in India and contributes a substantial share to the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
From being a food-deficit nation in the early-independence days to a nation with food security, India has taken multiple strides in its agricultural ecosystem. However, the lack of universal access to adequate, nutritious, and quality food has led to multiple health-related issues among children and women. India has one of the largest numbers of malnourished children in the world. In economic terms, this malnutrition amounts to a loss in 4% of the GDP. The progress of India towards global nutrition targets is not on par. Amidst all these, the overarching impacts of climate change tend to deepen these existing vulnerabilities and hinder our transition towards more sustainable and equitable food systems.
In this context, the International Food Policy Research Institute’s (IFPRI) global food policy report 2022 titled, ‘Climate change and food systems’ becomes an important resource to understand the globally shifting circumstances. This story is a compilation of important extracts from IFPRI’s 2022 report.
16% reduction in aggregate food production in India by 2050
Food production is one of the primary areas that is impacted by climate change. Decreasing soil fertility levels, reduced yields, increased threats of pests and invasive species, and conversion of agricultural land for commercial consumption are some of the key factors impacting the food production cycle. The IFPRI’s IMPACT model estimates the reduction in aggregate food production in India to be at 16% by 2050, the highest in the South Asian region. Among other countries, the United States of America’s estimates stood at 34%, Australia’s at 18%, Japan at 17%, the United Kingdom at 7%, China at 5%, and cumulatively, estimates for the world stand at 8%. Among the various regions, North America’s reduction is highest at 29%, followed by Africa (excepting North) at 19% and South Asia at 15%. Interestingly, the Southeast Asian region is estimated to increase the aggregate food production with climate change compared to the production without climate change. It is important to note that 2010 levels were considered as the baseline for these projections.
Additional 17 million people at risk of hunger in India by 2030
The vast majority of people from lower- and middle-income countries, and developing countries sustain on a daily basis for their livelihood and food security. Climate change impacts their livelihoods, and food security, thereby putting them at risk of hunger. Effectively, climate change is also a hunger issue. Globally, around 65 million people are at risk due to climate-change induced hunger. In this, India adds up to 17 million people to the global number of people at risk of hunger by 2030 due to climate change, the highest among all countries. India is followed by the Democratic Republic of Congo, which contributes to additional 4.8 million people. The gap between these two countries demonstrates the severity of climate change-induced hunger risk for India.
South Asia tops among the regions that contribute to global climate change-induced hunger risk. Ironically, North America, which had a huge reduction in projected aggregate food production, adds no additional population at risk of hunger. This shows the differential impacts of climate change on countries.
Impacts of climate change last long
It is evident that climate change induces changes in aggregate food production globally. However, these changes are not uniform throughout all the food types.  It is observed that while the production of greens significantly reduces due to climate change, the impact on meat production is negligible. Cereals are most impacted among the greens, followed by roots and tubers, and fruits and vegetables.
Climate change effects are long-lasting. It is observed that the differential in the total production potential due to climate change increases from 2030 to 2050 for the majority of food categories. Pulses & Meats are the only categories that are minimally affected due to the last longing impacts of climate change. The increasing production differential in 2050 from 2030 validates the point that climate change, if left unacted, is going to disrupt millions of populations, and put them at risk of hunger and death.
Ensuring food security through agricultural trade
One of the key points raised by the report is the increase in the agricultural trade. This increase in the trade in agricultural commodities can augment the optimal utilization of natural resources and envisages providing the best nutritious food at the least possible cost. Another reason is the increase in trade could be the limited availability of domestic supplies and a fall in productivity. The volume of trade in agricultural products almost doubled, while the value of trade has more than tripled in the last twenty years.
The trading patterns in agricultural products have undergone changes in the past 25 years, with the majority of developing nations becoming importers and consumers of the global food trade. The gap between the exports and imports for these countries is gradually narrowing. The reasons for this could be due to changing income levels, rising urbanization, and a shift in consumer preferences.
Despite such tremendous growth in the trade of agricultural products, significant barriers exist that limit the trading potential of these agricultural commodities. These could be in the form of domestic subsidies, export subsidies, and tariff and non-tariff barriers. Lower trade barriers could improve market access to these goods, which in turn can improve the food security and nutritional status of the household. The maximum permissible rate for agricultural products is 50 percent for members of the World Trade Organization. But countries generally prefer to keep tax less than the permissible limit so that the cost of the food products is lower.
In the wake of climate change severely impacting the production potential of the nations, it is high time that countries avoid trade-distorting policies and strategies and pursue further liberalisation of agri-food trade to ensure free and open trade. This must be done keeping in mind the domestic priorities, and a fine balance should be achieved.
Climate change effects on South Asia
South Asia is one of the major climate change hotspots across the world. Existing vulnerabilities of this region mean the compounding effects of climate change. Agriculture and land-use change activities have become the major contributor to the GHG emissions in the region. It is also the major sector that is deeply impacted by climate change.
The report identifies the following climate change impacting drivers:
These climate change drivers have multi-sectoral impacts that vary depending on the sector and its relative vulnerability. The report goes further to identify the following impacts on agri-food systems.
Upon studying these impacts of climate change on agri-food systems, the report proposes some of the mitigation measures.
To put it all together, agriculture and its allied activities are both, the problem, and the solution to climate change. New institutions to ensure proper food system governance is the need of the hour and it is very important to capitalize on the resilience exhibited by the agricultural food systems during the pandemic and make this sector more inclusive, sustainable, and resilient.
Featured Image: IFPRI’s Global Food Policy Report 2022


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Review: In The ‘International Year of Millets’, Here is Everything You Need To Know About Millets
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
February 21, 2023
The year 2023 is declared the ‘International Year of Millets’ by the UN, following India’s proposal.  India has earlier observed the year 2018 as the ‘National Year of Millets’. Here is everything you need to know about Millets and the activities being planned.
Accepting the Indian government’s proposal, the year 2023 has been declared the International Year of Millets by the 75 session of the United Nations General Assembly. The declaration is aimed at spreading awareness on the contribution of millets to food security and nutrition while also scaling up the sustainable production and quality of millets. At a time when the global agrifood systems are faced with challenges to feed an ever-growing global population, millets are resilient cereals that can help overcome the challenges. In this story, we look at what millets are, their benefits, and what all actions are being taken to achieve the objectives in this ‘Year of Millets’.
Millets are the traditional food in Asia and Africa
According to Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), millet is a collective term referring to a number of small-seeded annual grasses that are cultivated as grain crops, primarily on marginal lands in dry areas in temperate, subtropical and tropical regions. These crops are mainly grown in developing countries as a subsistence crop for local consumption. Major millet crops in India include Jowar or Sorghum, bajra or pearl millet, ragi or finger millet, kangni or foxtail millet, sama or little millet, kodo, barnyard and proso millets.
Millets are considered traditional food for more than half a billion people across Asia and Africa. Currently, millets are being grown in 130+ countries. In India, Millets are primarily kharif crops and require lesser water and agricultural inputs compared to rice and wheat. They have the potential to address multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Millets have nutritional, ecological, and economic benefits
In terms of nutritional value, millets are very good sources of carbohydrates, dietary fibre, micronutrients, and phytochemicals with nutraceutical properties. They significantly contribute to human and animal diets owing to their high levels of energy, calcium, iron, zinc, lipids, and high-quality proteins. Millets contain 7-12% protein, 2-5% fat, 65-75% carbohydrates and 15-20% dietary fibre. As compared to the staple crops of rice and wheat, numerous studies have pointed out how millets are nutritionally superior. For instance, the calcium content in ragi or finger millet is 10 times higher than that of wheat or rice. Millets have a low Glycaemic Index (GI) which is also associated with the prevention of diabetes and are gluten-free.
Millets are sustainable crops. They have a low water and carbon footprint. According to ICRISAT, one rice plant requires nearly 2.5 times the amount of water required by a single millet plant of most varieties. Moreover, millets can grow on relatively poor soils and under adverse and arid conditions, with less fertilizer and irrigation requirements than other cereals. These crops have good resistance to pests and diseases. Not only does this help contribute towards combating climate change and food security, but also has the potential to generate livelihoods and increase farmers’ income.
Green revolution is one of the reasons behind decline in consumption of millets
Millets were among the first crops to be domesticated in India. There are several evidences of its consumption during the Indus valley civilization. However, in the 1960s, Green Revolution focused on grains like rice and wheat in place of millets to attain food security which resulted in the decline in consumption and production of millets in the country. Before the Green Revolution, millets made up around 40% of all cultivated grains, which dropped to around 20% over the years, and cultivation of commercial crops, oilseeds, pulses, and maize took over instead as market-oriented agriculture gained prominence.
Nonetheless, in the last decade, the focus is realigning towards mainstreaming millets in India. This is evident in terms of various policy interventions by governments.
Measures are being taken to mainstream millets in India
The National Agriculture Policy of 2000 focused on increasing production and productivity of crops to meet the increasing demand for food. One of the measures taken alongside boosting production of wheat and rice was a Centrally Sponsored Scheme – Integrated Cereals Development Programme in Coarse Cereals Based Cropping Systems Areas (ICDP-Coarse Cereals). (Millets were referred to as Coarse Cereals). In 2011-12, the Government launched the Initiative for Nutritional Security through Intensive Millets Promotion (INSIMP) to increase area, productivity, and production of millets. It was later merged as component of National Food Security Mission (NFSM) as NFSM-Coarse Cereals from 2014-15.
In about a year, in 2013, the National Food Security Act, 2013 came into effect which covers subsidy on coarse grains alongside rice and wheat.
In 2018, the Union Government issued a circular stating that millets be referred to as ‘nutri-cereals’ for production, consumption, and trade purposes. It also added that millets would be added to the Public Distribution System in the country following the recommendations of a committee set up by the government.
2018 was National Year of Millets
India also declared the year 2018 as the ‘National Year for Millets’ to promote millets for nutrition security. India had also sent a proposal to the UN for declaring 2023 as year of millets. This proposal was supported by 72 countries and the Food and Agricultural Organization and UNGA declared 2023 as International Year of Millets in March 2021. The Government of India also provided USD 5,00,000 to Food & Agricultural Organisation (FAO) to support the activities related to International Year of Millets – 2023.
Simultaneously, State Governments like Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, etc. also came up with their own policy interventions to revive millets.
India is leading producer and exporter of millets
In her budget speech for 2023-24, Finance Minister announced that India is the largest producer and second largest exporter of millets. With India at the forefront of celebrating 2023 as Year of Millets and promoting millets, there is a potential to create large international markets for Indian millets. India aims to create both domestic & global demand of millets, focusing on strategies to enhance climate resilient Nutri-cereals production, consumption, export, branding etc. Reports suggest that India is also leveraging its G-20 Presidency to promote millets.
In order to create awareness about millets within the country, the government has rolled out several campaigns ranging from millet food festivals in the parliament, releasing recipe books, organizing quizzes, caption and recipe competitions, among others.

created: February 21, 2023


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India's contingent has 120 athletes competing in 18 sports at Tokyo 2020
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
July 19, 2021
India’s contingent at Tokyo 2020 is the largest ever with medal hopefuls across multiple sports. A total of 120 athletes (52 female & 68 male) are participating in the games across 18 sports.
The countdown to the Tokyo Olympics, 2020 has begun. After a year-long delay because of the COVID-19 pandemic, Japan is all set to lift the curtains for the much-awaited Games of the 32 Olympiad or the Olympic Games Tokyo 2020. Though the official opening ceremony of the international event is scheduled to be held on 23 July 2021, the sporting events begin two days earlier. The 17 day long sports competition will culminate with the closing ceremony on 8 August 2021. The Olympics torch-lighting ceremony was held behind closed doors in March 2020. This would be the second time that Tokyo, Japan will be hosting the event, after hosting it in 1964. This year, 206 countries will be participating in 339 events across 33 sports encompassing 46 disciplines. The slogan of the 2020 Summer Olympics torch relay is “Hope Lights Our Way”.
Miraitowa is the mascot for Tokyo Olympics 2020, representing Japan’s culture
The mascot of Tokyo Olympics 2020 is named Miraitowa, which is styled with the Ai (indigo blue) Ichimatsu pattern from the Tokyo 2020 Games emblem, a tribute to both the respected tradition and modern innovation of Japanese culture. The name MIRAITOWA is based on the Japanese words “mirai”, meaning “future”, and “towa”, meaning “eternity”, representing the wish that the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games will lead to a future of everlasting hope in the hearts of everyone around the world, as per the games website.
Medals have been made from discarded smartphones sourced from various parts of Japan
For this edition of the Olympics, medals have been made from recycled electronics. About 5,000 gold, silver, and bronze medals have been made from recycled electronics sourced from all over Japan. A competition was held inviting entries for medal designs, for which around 400 entries were received. The medal’s design is intended to symbolise diversity and represent a world where people who compete in sports and work hard are honoured.
The final design represents Japanese culture, with the ribbon showing off modernized checkered patterns and kimono layering techniques. Following the International Olympics Committee’s standards, the front of the medal includes Nike, the Greek goddess of victory, in front of Panathinaikos Stadium and the back of the medal features the Tokyo 2020 logo. Further, chemically recycled polyester fibers that produce less CO2 during their manufacturing process have been used for the ribbons where Tokyo 2020 core graphic colours are represented.
Besides using e-waste for producing medals, Japan has taken other measures too, to ensure sustainability and reduce carbon footprint. These include sourcing renewable sources of energy for meeting electricity requirements for the event, podiums manufactured using recycled plastic contributed by public and recovered from oceans, etc.
New sports have been added in Tokyo 2020
Five new sports have been introduced in the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games. These are karate, skateboard, baseball/softball, sports climbing, and surfing. The selection of the sports is based on multiple factors such as the impact on gender equality, the youth appeal of the sports, and the legacy value of adding them to the Tokyo Games. The inclusion of the new sports adds additional 18 events. Tokyo 2020 will witness over 11,300 athletes from more than 200 countries competing in 339 events.
India’s largest-ever contingent participating in Tokyo 2020
India was represented for the first time in the 1900 Paris Olympic Games. Norman Pritchard, a sprinter, was the country’s first and only athlete at the 1900 Games. He won silver medals in the men’s 200m and 200m hurdles. Even the Indian Olympic Association was formed much later, in 1927. Including Tokyo 2020, this would be the 25 time that India will be appearing in an Olympic programme. In the 2016 Rio Olympics, 117 participants qualified to represent India across 15 sports disciplines, as compared to 81 sportspersons in London Olympics 2012, and 57 in Beijing Olympics 2008.
A total of 120 athletes are representing India in Tokyo 2020 in 69 events across 18 disciplines. A total of 52 female and 68 male athletes are part of the contingent. While 32 of them are competing for the medal in Hockey (16 male and 16 female) which is a team event, there are 25 participants in athletics and 15 in shooting. India is participating in six team events viz., archery (male), 4*400m relay mixed, Men’s 4*400 relay, hockey (men & women), and mixed doubles table tennis.
Discipline-wise number of participants from India is given in the following table.
The schedule of events in which Indian sportspersons are participating can be accessed from here.
The USA is sending more than 600 athletes
As on 17 July 2021, a total of 11,309 were qualified to participate in Olympics Tokyo 2020 across 200 countries. The USA has the largest contingent with more than 600 participants, followed by Japan, the host, with close to 590 participants. Australia, China, and Germany have more than 400 participants each, while Great Britain, France, Canada, Italy, Spain, and Brazil are sending more than 300 participants. More than 200 participants each from Netherlands, Poland, and New Zealand are also part of the events. South Africa, Argentina, Hungary, Mexico, Ukraine, Egypt, Sweden, and Belgium each have more participants than India.
The men’s hockey team won 11 medals of India’s total tally of 28 medals
So far, India has won 28 medals in the Olympics including 23 medals post-independence. India has won 9 gold medals, 7 silver medals, and 12 bronze medals. Eleven of the medals were in Hockey- men, including 8 gold medals, 1 silver, and 2 bronze medals. The men’s team won six consecutive gold medals at the Games between 1928 and 1956, and a silver in 1960. Indian Men’s Hockey team won bronze in both 1968 and 1972. The other two gold medals were won in Tokyo 1964 and Moscow 1980.
Only one individual has won gold medal for India
India’s won the greatest number of medals in the 2012 London Olympics with 2 silver and 4 bronze medals. In the 2008 Beijing Olympics, India won 3 medals- 1 gold and 2 bronze. The only individual to have won a gold medal from India is Abhinav Bindra who won the medal in men’s 10m air rifle shooting at the in Beijing Olympics, 2008. M C Mary Kom, who won bronze in wrestling in the 2012 London Olympics and PV Sindhu, who won silver in the women’s badminton singles in Rio 2016, are participating in Tokyo 2020.
What is in store for Indian athletes at Tokyo 2020?
With the largest ever contingent and with more than 100 promising sportspersons who have accomplished themselves in the international arena and world championships, India is expected to improve considerably from its 2016 tally of just 2 medals and the 67th position in the rankings. India is expected to do well in Archery, Hockey, Shooting, Badminton, Tennis, Athletics, Wrestling, Weightlifting & boxing. However, the pandemic-induced lockdowns, disruption to trainings & events may have taken a toll on the athletes. How they perform under pressure on the world’s biggest stage remains to be seen.
Featured Image: Tokyo 2020 Olympics


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Review: What is India’s GDP growth projection by different agencies?
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
September 19, 2020
Multiple international rating agencies have been revising their GDP growth estimates for 2020 and beyond because of the uncertainties around COVID-19 induced lockdowns and the economic slowdown. Here is a quick review of the GDP growth estimates for India and the other major economies by different rating agencies.
According to the Ministry of Statistics & Program Implementation’s (MoSPI) press release on 31 August 2020, India’s GDP for the first quarter of financial year 2020-21 contracted by 23.9% as compared to that of the same quarter during the financial year 2019-20. In other words, India’s GDP growth rate in Q1 of 2020-21 was -23.9%. The large contraction can be attributed to the nationwide lockdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Not just in India, but globally, many economies have contracted in the April-June quarter of 2020. A detailed story on the GDP growth/contraction in various countries in April-June quarter of 2020 has already been published by Factly.
Gradually, countries including India have been easing restrictions imposed to contain the spread of the virus with detailed operating guidelines to be followed while opening up.  Economic activity is also picking up in a phased manner and hence, we might see improved GDP numbers for the July to September quarter of 2020.  In this story, we take a look at the GDP forecast for India as well as few other major economies, as predicted by multiple prominent agencies.
India’s GDP growth estimated to be at -4.5% as predicted by IMF
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in June 2020 projected the global GDP growth to be at   -4.9% in 2020, worse than the projection made in April 2020 at -3%. In January 2020, before the pandemic spread across the world, the projection was a growth of 3.3%.
IMF estimated India’s GDP to grow at 1.9% in its April 2020 forecast. However, the revised forecast in the June 2020 report estimates a contraction by 4.5% in 2020 calendar year. The projections made in June for G7 countries are negative as well. France and Italy are projected to experience a contraction of 12.5% and 12.8% respectively while UK’s contraction was projected to be at 10.2% in 2020. Meanwhile, China was expected to witness an increase in GDP by 1%, probably because of the outbreak in the early part of 2020 as against the rest of the world.
COVID-19 has resulted in the deepest global recession in eight decades
The World Bank projected the global growth to be at 2.5% in 2020, slightly more than the global growth in 2019 at 2.4%, in its report published in January this year. However, following the coronavirus outbreak, in the June 2020 version of the report, the global economy has been projected to contract by 5.2% in 2020, which the World Bank termed as ‘the deepest global recession in eight decades’.
India’s real GDP which was projected to increase by 5.8% in 2020 has been re-estimated to contract by 3.2%. The forecast for USA and Japan shows contraction of 6.1% while the GDP of Euro Area is expected to contract by 9.1%. China’s GDP is projected to go up by 1%.
OECD forecasts India’s GDP to contract by 10.2%
The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), in March 2020, re-forecasted the GDP growth for 2020 and 2021 taking into consideration the risk due to COVID-19. Even prior to the pandemic, the growth was weak and stabilizing. The world’s growth for 2020 estimated at 2.9% in November 2019, dropped to 2.4% and has been projected to contract by 4.5% in the March and September 2020 versions of the report.
India’s GDP growth for 2020, projected at 6.2% in November 2019, was slashed to 5.1% in March 2020 and has been projected to contract 10.2% in the September 2020 forecast as a result of lockdowns being extended. The GDPs of Italy and UK are expected to contract by about 10% while only China will witness a positive growth at 1.8%. However, in 2021, India’s GDP is projected to rebound to 10.7% growth.
Fitch ratings project India’s GDP to contract by 10.5% in 2020-21
Fitch Ratings is an American credit rating agency which is one among the ‘Big 3 Credit Rating Agencies’ recognized in the US. As per Fitch’s forecast in March 2020 , the global growth was projected at 1.3% which was later re-estimated at -4.4% in September 2020. Since COVID-19 cases in India were low in March 2020, India’s GDP growth for financial year 2020-21 was projected to contract by 5%. After recording one of the sharpest GDP contractions in the world in the first quarter of 2020-21, India’s GDP projection for 2020-21 has been slashed to -10.5% due to ‘looming deterioration in asset quality in the financial sector’. China’s GDP is expected to grow by 2.7% while all the G7 countries’ economies are projected to contract with -11.5% for UK and -10.5% for France being the highest.
South Asia’s GDP is expected to contract by 6.8%
Among the neighbouring countries, Maldives GDP is expected to contract by 20.5%, more than India’s, whose GDP has been forecast to contract by -9% (from -4% projected in June 2020), according to the Asian Development Bank. The bank has also projected a negative GDP growth for Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, and Pakistan whereas a positive growth for Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Nepal at 5.2%, 2.4% and 2.3% respectively, as of September 2020. Overall, South Asia’s GDP is projected to contract by 6.8% in 2020 due to the pandemic.
The projections made for India’s GDP growth in the upcoming year, by domestic as well as international rating agencies has been compiled in the following table. The first annual contraction in India’s GDP after 40 years has been projected by Moody’s.
Projection of GDP by different agencies has been arrived at with assumptions such as rate of infection, absence of financial policies, etc. In the subsequent financial year, 2021-22, all agencies are expecting India’s GDP to rebound and grow between 3% to 10%. The finance ministry, in its monthly economic report for August 2020 stated that India is witnessing a sharp V-shaped recovery.
However, there is still a lot of uncertainty around the pandemic and its effect on the economy. With India crossing 50 lakh cases recently and with speculations about a possible second wave of infections makes these projections all the more difficult. There is no certainty on how long the pandemic induced slowdown will last. India’s GDP de-growth of a staggering -23.9%, worst among G-7 countries & China was surprising since such a steep decline was not projected earlier. It should also be remembered that India’s GDP was already declining since the first quarter of financial year 2018-19, much before the pandemic set in.  The stringent lockdown due to the pandemic aggravated the situation.
Featured Image:  India’s GDP growth projections

created: September 19, 2020