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Data: Decoding the MSP & Procurement of Major Crops
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
March 1, 2024
Since 13 February 2024, numerous farm unions in India have been engaged in a strike, advocating for a legislation on floor pricing, also known as the minimum support price, for their agricultural produce. In this story, we look at the trends in the production and procurement of food grains and look at some of the underlying issues in farming.
Since 13 February 2024, numerous farm unions in India have been engaged in a strike, advocating for legislation on floor pricing, also known as the minimum support price, for their agricultural produce. The ongoing protests involve tens of thousands of Indian farmers reviving a movement that successfully led to the repeal of contentious agricultural laws in 2021. Two years after concluding a large-scale protest, Indian farmers have returned to the streets, emphasizing the necessity of guaranteed prices for their crops. Farmers assert that their primary demand, the enactment of minimum support price legislation, would ensure sustainable rates for their crops, providing them with fair earnings.
Over 60% of India’s population relies primarily on agriculture for their livelihoods, despite the sector contributing less than 20% to the nation’s economic output. Persistent issues such as debts and bankruptcy have driven farmers to alarming rates of suicide. There is a consensus that India’s previous system, which encouraged farmers to produce an excessive surplus of grains, requires rectification. However, the means and methods of such rectifications are complex, with no easy answers. Unfortunately, more attention is being laid on farmers and protests rather than the core underlying issues.
In this story, we look at the trends in the production and procurement of food grains and look at some of the underlying issues in farming.
MSP over the years- Wheat and Paddy among the least gainers
Since the “Green Revolution” in the 1960s, the Indian government has operated a program guaranteeing farmers a fixed price for specific crops. Coupled with advancements in farming technology, this system has played a crucial role in transforming India from widespread hunger to consistently achieving substantial annual food surpluses. The Government of India announces the Minimum Support Prices (MSP) as per the recommendation of the Commission of Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP), before every harvest (Rabi/kharif season).
The data on MSPs since the marketing year 2010-11 show that over the past 14 years, the MSPs of crops have grown with varying growth rates. Crops such as Ragi and Jowar registered over 200% growth, while crops such as Bajra, Maize, Barley, and Paddy registered over 100% growth. Wheat is the crop that registered the least growth, with only a 93% rise during the same period.
In terms of CAGR, MSP for Ragi grew at 10.4%, followed by Jowar at 9.5%, Maize at 6.4%, Barley at 6.2%, Paddy at 5.6%, and wheat at 4.8%.
Rice and Wheat production up by 30%, while Jowar and Ragi register decline in production.
In terms of production among the major food grains, between 2014-15 and 2022-23, it is observed that Rice production grew from 105.5 million Tonnes to 135.8 million Tonnes, marking a 29% rise. During the similar period, Wheat production grew from 85.6 million Tonnes to 110.6 million Tonnes, showing a 28% rise. Similarly, Maize production rose from 24.2 million Tonnes to 38 million Tonnes, rising by almost 60%.
However, Jowar production declined from 5.5 million tonnes to 3.8 million tonnes, marking a 30% decline. Similarly, Ragi production too declined from 2.1 million tonnes to 1.7 million tonnes, marking an 18% decline.
Procurement of rice and wheat see decline in last two years.
The procurement of food grains is a crucial element in achieving the goal of making food grains available to the poorer sections at reasonable prices and guaranteeing a Minimum Support Price (MSP) to the farmers. This process plays a vital role in effective market intervention, controlling prices, and contributing to the broader food security of the nation. The Food Corporation of India (FCI), as the primary central agency of the Government of India, collaborates with various state agencies to carry out the procurement of wheat and paddy.
The data on procurements show that procurement of rice and wheat has fallen in the last two years. During the marketing year 2011-12, the procurement of rice stood at 35.1 million Tonnes, rising to a highest of 60.2 million tonnes during the COVID-19 pandemic period from 2020-21. However, the procurement fell in the following two consecutive marketing years. Similarly, the procurement of wheat was at 28.3 million tonnes in 2011-12, rising to a highest of 43.3 million tonnes in 2021-22. Post 2021-22, the procurement of wheat declined by more than half.
Procurement distribution is uneven, concentrated in few states.
The state-level data on procurement of paddy show that procurement operations remain concentrated in a handful of states, lacking equity among various rice-producing states nationwide. In TE 2021-22, West Bengal accounted for 13.2% of the total rice production, however, its procurement share is only 3.6%. Similar is the case with Uttar Pradesh, which accounts for 12.4% of rice production, but the share in procurement is 7.5%. In contrast, Punjab accounts for 10% of rice production, but 22% of procurement out of total procurement. Similarly, Telangana accounts for 8.1% of production, but 14.4% of the procurement.
Significant disparities in average procurement per farmer are also apparent, with procurement per farmer ranging from 11.9 tonnes in Punjab and 9 tonnes in Uttarakhand to less than 3 tonnes in Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Kerala, and West Bengal.
These uneven distributions raise concerns about social equity and efficiency.
Terms of trade remain low indicating unfavourable exchange conditions for farmers.
The CACP considers the Terms of Trade (ToT) between the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors as a factor in determining the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for mandated crops. Terms of Trade (ToT) for farmers are calculated as the ratio of the Index of Prices Received (IPR) to the Index of Prices Paid (IPP). A ToT ratio exceeding one (or 100%) signifies favourable pricing power for farmers, indicating that they receive higher prices for their products compared to the prices they pay for inputs. Conversely, a ToT ratio below one indicates unfavourable conditions of exchange, suggesting that farmers receive lower prices for their products relative to the costs of their inputs.
The Farmers’ Terms of Trade index exhibited an increase from 87.8 in 2004-05 to 103 in 2010-11. However, from 2011-12 onward, the index remained slightly below 100 and was recorded at 97.1 in the fiscal year 2021-22(P). Excepting the three years between 2008-09 to 2010-11, the ToT ratio recorded below 100%, indicating the unfavourable pricing power for farmers.
Market prices well below the MSP of Paddy
One of the key issues of the farmer protests is the legislation for MSP. Farmers have the discretion to sell their produce anywhere- either to private players or the government procurement agencies, wherever they get better prices. Data on market prices has been gathered from 3,100 Agricultural Produce Market Committees (APMC) mandis across various States and Union Territories (UTs) through AGMARKNET for analysis purposes. Market price denotes the rate at which farmers sell their crops at these mandis. The state-weighted average daily price of a commodity has been calculated by averaging the modal price observed at different centres, with the daily market arrivals at each centre serving as the weights for computation.
The trends in domestic market prices compared to the Minimum Support Price (MSP) of paddy for the Kharif Marketing Season (KMS) from 2018-19 to 2022-23 show that the market prices of paddy remained below the MSP. However, during the KMS of 2022-23, although the market prices were still below the MSP, they displayed a rising trajectory. Towards the conclusion of the KMS of 2022-23, market prices approached closely with the MSP.
Market prices below MSP are almost the case with other crops, except soyabean and cotton. In such scenarios, government procurement at MSP is a better economic alternative for farmers.
MSP provides a margin over the cost of production.
When market prices fall due to various factors, the government’s MSP comes as a support, providing a cushion against distortions. The MSP is recommended by the CACP and is calculated keeping in mind the supply and demand, cost of production, and inter-crop price parity among other factors. The government establishes the Minimum Support Price (MSP) at 1.5 times the Cost of Production (CoP), where CoP is calculated as A2+FL. However, the Swaminathan Commission recommends that the CoP should be determined based on C2, advocating for the ‘C2+50 per cent’ formula for setting MSP. One of the major demands of the farmers is to implement the recommendations of the Swaminathan Commission.
Here, A2 means the Paid-out cost or cultivation expenses, covering inputs like seeds, fertilizers, pesticides, hired labour, fuel, and irrigation, incurred by farmers. A2+FL is the Paid-out cost-plus imputed value of family labour and C2 is the Paid out cost-plus imputed value of family labour plus rental value of owned land and interest on fixed capital.
The data on margin in MSP over the cost of production considering C2 show for Paddy, the average margin hovers around 12%, while for Jowar it is around 10% only. Except for Bajra, all other crops have a margin of less than 20%. While the government has guaranteed a margin of a minimum of 50% above A2+FL, the margins when compared to C2 are way below 20%.
Several media reports suggest that the actual cost of production computed by the respective state agricultural commissions is more than the cost of production calculated by CACP. As a result, even if MSP is assured, farmers will incur losses.
Comprehensive reforms needed to overcome ‘Triple challenge’.
The above charts show the economic vulnerability of the farmers, despite the assurance of a minimum support price. In fact, only a small percentage of farmers benefit from MSP, while the rest succumb to market volatility. Furthermore, a report by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) suggests that the convergence of domestic and trade policies has led to a reduction in Indian farm revenue by approximately 5.7% over the past three years, translating to Rs. 1.7 trillion per year of ‘implicit taxation’.
The report also notes that, like other countries, India also faces the ‘Triple Challenge’ – Providing safe and nutritious food to an expanding population at reasonable prices, sustaining livelihoods for farmers and individuals in the food supply chain, and addressing significant resource and climate challenges. Overcoming this triple challenge requires action on multiple domains and at multiple levels, from trade policies to domestic policies, from infrastructure development to improvement in agricultural institutions, from union governments to federal governments and so on.


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Data: Decoding the numbers of the ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat Rojgar Yojana’
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
March 22, 2022
As part of the multiple relief packages for mitigating the impact of COVID-19, the government launched ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat Rojgar Yojana (ABRY)’ as a part of Atmanirbhar Bharat 3.0. The primary objective of the scheme is to incentive employers to generate new employment and to restore the lost employment due to COVID-19 Pandemic. What do the beneficiary numbers of this scheme say about the pattern of establishment across states? We compare ABRY numbers with the net payroll data released by EPFO
The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the vulnerability of the employment situation in India. One of the profound impacts of the pandemic was the loss of employment across a variety of sectors. The closure of various kinds of formal enterprises led to termination and mass layoffs in certain cases. In addition to this, the informal sector employees like the daily wage earners, streetside vendors, etc., also suffered heavily due to the pandemic and its related restrictions.
The Quarterly Employment Survey (QES), conducted as part of the All-India Quarterly Establishment based Employment Survey (AQEES) by the Labour Bureau measured the sector-wise impact of the COVID-19 pandemic during the lockdown phase. The number of male employees fell from 217.8 Lakhs to 201.5 Lakhs, while the female employees fell from 90.0 Lakhs to 83.3 Lakhs, during the period 25March 2020 to 30June 2020, as per the first round of this survey, which looked at the employment status of the establishments in the selected 9 sectors.
The pandemic has also severely impacted the capital reserves of the small-scale enterprises. Realizing this, the Government of India (GoI) announced the ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat Package’ to minimize the COVID-19 impact. Rightly so, small-scale enterprises were accorded a significant part in this package. In addition to this package, the GoI launched ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat Rojgar Yojana (ABRY)’ as a part of Atmanirbhar Bharat 3.0. The primary objective of the scheme is to incentive employers to generate new employment and to restore the lost employment due to the COVID-19 Pandemic. Under this scheme, the GoI intends to incentivize the employers by paying both the employer and employee contributions of 12% each for enterprises with less than 1000 employees and only the employee’s contribution for enterprises with more than 1000 employees. This is applicable to firms registered with EPFO and for new employees on or after 01 October 2020 up to 31 March 2022 with wages less than Rs. 15,000 or to those who lost jobs between 01 March 2020 to 30 September 2020.
In this story, we look at some of the aspects of ABRY based on data provided in a recent answer in the Lok Sabha and analyse the trends while comparing these numbers with the net payroll data published by EPFO. While a one-to-one comparison is not possible because of the varied nature of the data from these sources, it can provide us some insights into the nature of establishments & employment across states. We have included limitations in each section of the analysis to ensure that the data & the methodology is correctly understood.
Disbursal trend of ABRY
The scheme was announced as a part of Atmanirbhar Bharat 3.0. The registration of new employees and employers is valid from 01 October 2020 to 31March 2022 (extended from 30 June 2021). The contribution pay-outs are for a period of twenty-four (24) months only, and there is no state-specific allocation of funds for this scheme. The total outlay of the scheme is Rs. 22810 Crores for the entire period up to 31 May 2023 (before the extension was granted). Approximately 71.8 Lakh employees are expected to get benefitted from this scheme during this period.
The scheme was allotted Rs. 1000 Crores in revised estimates of 2020-21, while the actual expenditure has been Rs. 405 Crores. The allocation then increased to Rs. 3130 Crores in the budget estimates of 2021-22, while the revised estimates of 2021-22 increased it further to Rs. 5000 Crores. Considering the extension of validity for a period of 9 months, the budget estimates for 2022-23 have been increased to Rs. 6400 Crores.
As on 31 October 2021, around 1,12,060 establishments availed the benefit of Rs. 2214.47 Crores, with 36,60,141 employees getting benefitted. This increased to Rs. 2736.66 Crores with the establishments benefitted rising to 1,18, 489, as on 13 December 2021. As of 06 January 2022, the benefits were extended to 43,21,487 employees through 1,22,228 establishments. The latest figures include 1,34,568 enterprises, with 51,95,330 employees getting benefitted and Rs. 4055.90 Crores amount being reimbursed as of 12 March 2022.
Establishments in industrialized states benefitted much higher:
In an answer to the parliament in December 2021, the government had provided the state-wise number of establishments and the number of employees benefitted through this scheme. Upon looking at the average number of employees benefitted per establishment, it is evident that, in the industrialized states like Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Haryana, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Telangana, the number is higher than the national average. This may also indicate the presence of large establishments in these states. Similarly, the less industrially developed states like Bihar, Rajasthan, West Bengal, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh had a relatively lower number of beneficiary employees per establishment. They stand below the national average also.
Limitation: Though it is hard to establish a direct correlation between the level of industrialization and the average beneficiaries per establishment considering the wage threshold of Rs.15,000, the trend is evident in the sense that industrialized states benefitted more in terms of employees per establishment.
Stark differences in the Net payroll data and the Beneficiaries of ABRY
The scheme began on 01 October 2020, and one criterion is that the firms must be registered with EPFO. For existing establishments, minimum of two employees (if the reference base of employees is less than 50) and minimum of five employees (if the reference base of employees is more than 50) must be added. For newly registered establishments between 01 October 2020 to 30June 2021 (later extended to 31 March 2022), the reference base of employees shall be treated as zero. This should be done along with retaining the existing employees who form the reference base.
The reference base is the number of employees with ‘Universal Account Number (UAN)’ whose EPF/EPS contributions have been remitted by the employer for the wage month of September 2020, up to the due date.
The Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) under the Ministry of Labour & Employment, publishes the ‘Net Payroll data’  for every month. The net payroll data of a month provides data about the total number of new employees who joined, who exited and who re-joined during the said period.
If we compare the cumulative net payroll data of all months starting from October 2020 till November 2021 and the number of beneficiaries of the ABRY scheme as of December 2021, there is a huge difference between both these numbers. This difference is much more significant in lesser industrialized states. In the majority of cases, the percentage of beneficiaries out of the total payroll is lesser in industrialized states than those in the less industrialized states.
The reasons behind such trend could be multiple- reference base requirements, a greater proportion of employees having wages greater than Rs.15,000  in more industrialized states and so on. While it is difficult to establish the causal relationship between the two, it is evident that the wage difference between states could be one of the major factors behind such a trend.
ABRY benefit vs. the assumed benefit as per EPFO data
To arrive at this estimation, the below steps were followed.
Upon performing the above operation, it is seen that in most of the industrialized states, the percentage of the actual benefit compared to the assumed benefit is lower than in the less-industrialised states. Industrialized states like Haryana, Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Telangana have this value below 7%, whereas the less-industrialized states such as Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Jharkhand, and Orissa have this above 10%. This validates the fact that industrialized states generally have bigger establishments and better salary figures which make them unqualified for the ABRY scheme.
Limitation: It is difficult to extract a direct correlation from this calculation, but the above calculation could be used as a proxy to estimate the type of establishments across states and the general salary levels.
Featured Image: Atmanirbhar Bharat Rojgar Yojana

source: news-factly

license: Creative Commons - Attribution - https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

author: Sai Krishna Muthyanolla


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Data: Despite 9-fold increase in registered cases of Child Marriage between 2011 & 2021, reporting still poor
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
September 15, 2022
The NCRB’s Crime in India (CII) report for 2021 indicates that more than 1000 cases of child marriage were registered under the Prohibition of Child Marriage Act, 2006 for the first time in 2021. While this is more than a 9-fold increase compared to 2011, the actual prevalence of child marriages is much higher as evident from the NFHS-5 data.
One of the concerns raised amidst the uncertainty during the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak was the increase in child marriages. An analysis by UNICEF in 2021 revealed that up to 10 million more girls will be at risk of becoming child brides over the next decade, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. It also noted that prior to the pandemic, 100 million girls were already at risk of child marriage in the next decade, despite significant reductions in several countries in recent years. Further, globally in the last ten years, the proportion of young women who were married as children had decreased by 15%, from nearly 1 in 4 to 1 in 5. This progress has been challenged by the pandemic. UNFPA estimated that the COVID-19 pandemic would globally result in 13 million additional child marriages over the 2020-2030 decade due to economic challenges and hindrances in the implementation of prevention programmes.
In India, the Prohibition of Child Marriage Act, 2006  (PCM) prohibits the solemnization of marriage of a boy who is less than 21 years of age or a girl who is less than 18 years of age. The National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB), in its annual Crime in India (CII) report, provides data on the number of cases registered under the Prohibition of Child Marriage Act, 2006 across states under the head of Special and Local Laws (SLL) crimes. The latest report for 2021 was released recently.
More than 9-fold increase in cases in the last 11 years
As per the NCRB’s CII report, the number of cases registered under the PCM Act crossed 1000 for the first time in 2021. The number of cases registered in 2021 was 1050, up by 34% compared to 2020. In other words, while an average of 2 cases of child marriage were registered in 2020, this increased to about 3 cases a day in 2021.
Compared to 2019, the number of cases went up by almost 50% in 2020 and more than doubled in 2021. Since 2011, the number of cases registered under the PCM Act has been on a gradual rise. Between 2011 & 2021, the number of cases registered increased by more than nine times.
Between 2011 and 2021, a total of 4,654 cases were registered of which 39% were registered in 2020 and 2021 alone. The increase may reflect improved reporting of such cases or the actual increase in the incidence of cases or both.
Between 2011 & 2021, one in every five cases was reported from Karnataka
Karnataka alone accounted for more than 19% of the cases registered between 2011 and 2021 with 849 cases, the highest among all states/UTs. Tamil Nadu (649) and West Bengal (619) had the second and third highest number of cases registered, while Assam registered 596 cases. Together, these four states accounted for more than 59% of the cases reported between 2011 & 2021. Maharashtra, Telangana, and Haryana too registered more than 200 cases each. These seven states together contributed to 75% of the cases registered under the PCM Act between 2011 and 2021. Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Gujarat, Kerala, and Bihar reported more than 100 cases each. The 12 states together contributed to more than 90% of the cases registered between 2011 & 2021.
The five south Indian states accounted for 45% of the cases registered under the Act since 2011. On the other hand, among the northeastern states, no case was registered in Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram, Nagaland, and Sikkim while 1 case was registered in Meghalaya, 2 in Manipur, and 12 in Tripura. 97.5% of the cases registered in the northeastern states were registered in Assam alone.
Record number of cases were registered by many states in 2021
Between 2011 & 2021, a continuous increase in cases registered has been observed in the states of Karnataka and Assam. In Karnataka, the number of cases registered touched 273 in 2021, the highest so far. The number is higher than the total number of cases registered all over India in 2011, 2012, and 2013. Only Karnataka crossed the 200 cases mark in 2021.
In 2021, apart from Karnataka, the states of Assam, Haryana, Maharashtra, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, Uttarakhand, and West Bengal also reported the highest number of cases registered in a year since 2011. Tamil Nadu (169) registered more than 100 cases for the first time and overtook Assam (155) to account for the highest number of cases of child marriage after Karnataka. West Bengal (105) also registered more than 100 cases in 2021.
Telangana which reported a continuous increase in the number of cases since 2014, registered fewer cases in 2021 than in 2020. However, states like West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Haryana, which witnessed a drop in cases in 2019 have reported an increase in cases in 2020 and 2021.
In 2021, the number of cases registered in Odisha was 2.7 times that registered in 2020. Likewise, in the same period, the cases registered in Tamil Nadu went up 2.2 times. Maharashtra and Haryana also witnessed an increase in cases in 2020 and 2021, compared to the previous years. More than 50% of the cases registered in the states of Odisha and Karnataka since 2011 were registered in 2020 and 2021 alone. In the states of Assam, Maharashtra, and Telangana, the two years of 2020 & 2021 contributed to more than 47% of the cases registered since 2011. These two years also accounted for more than 30% of the cases registered in the states of Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, Haryana, and Punjab during these eleven years.
Despite high rates of crimes against children, states like Chhattisgarh and MP register very few cases under PCM Act
Compared to the general increasing trend of registered cases of Child marriage in many states in 2020 & 2021, states such as Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and Madhya Pradesh did not report any unusual trends in 2020 or 2021. Uttar Pradesh (12) registered the highest number of cases in 2020 in more than a decade which dropped by half in 2021 to six (6). According to the 2021 NCRB Report, some of these states have a high rate of crimes against children. In 2021, the rate of crimes against children was 33.6 for India while Chhattisgarh reported 61.6 and Madhya Pradesh reported 66.7.
The data provided in the NCRB report covers only those cases for which an FIR has been filed. Hence, there could be numerous other cases that may have not been reported to the police. In fact, the findings of the National Family Health Survey support this.
NFHS survey reports underage marriage among men and women
The fifth National Family Health Survey or NFHS-5 was carried out in 2019-2021 in two phases because of disruptions due to the pandemic. Nearly 6.37 lakh households were covered in the national level questionnaire survey, including over 7.24 lakh women and 1.02 lakh men across 707 districts, 28 states, and 8 union territories. The report provides data on the percentage of women aged 20 to 24 years married before the age of 18 years and the percentage of men aged 25 to 29 years married before the age of 21 years.
According to the survey, 23.3% of women surveyed got married before attaining the legal age of 18 years, down from 26.8% reported in NFHS-4. The same among men was 17.7%, down from 20.3% in NFHS-4. That is, at the national level, more than 1 in 5 women surveyed was married before 18, which is illegal as per the PCM Act, 2006. The situation is worse in rural areas, where underage marriage was 27% among women and 21.1% among men while in urban areas it was 14.7% and 11.3% respectively.
More than 4 in 10 women were married before 18 in Bihar, Tripura, and West Bengal
Among states, more than 40% of women surveyed in the age group of 20-24 were married before the age of 18 years in the states of Bihar, Tripura, and West Bengal as per the NFHS-5. In Bihar and Madhya Pradesh, more than 30% of men surveyed in the age group of 25-29 were married before 21. However, the NCRB’s CII data shows that in Bihar, Tripura, and Madhya Pradesh, only a handful of cases under the PCM Act 2006 were registered.
Also, underage marriages were less than 15% among women surveyed in the age group of 20-24 in the states of Himachal Pradesh, Kerala, Haryana, Chhattisgarh, and Tamil Nadu. Among men, the share was less than 10% in Karnataka, Kerala, and Himachal Pradesh. These are the states that have reported a relatively higher number of cases registered under the PCM Act, as per the NCRB Report.
Which data is reliable?
The NFHS-5 data clearly indicates that the number of cases registered for child marriages (as per NCRB’s CII report) is next to nothing when compared to the prevalence of child marriages. As mentioned earlier, NCRB considers only those cases for which FIR has been filed. So, states with better reporting are bound to report higher numbers compared to the others. However, being a survey, the NFHS-5 also has its own limitations. Despite these limitations, it is evident that the reporting of child marriages & registration of cases leaves a lot to be desired especially in states with a high prevalence of child marriages.

created: September 15, 2022


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Data: Despite an increase in cases, deaths are significantly lower in countries with high COVID-19 Vaccine Coverage
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
November 4, 2021
In the last few months, there has been an increase in the number of new COVID-19 cases in the USA, Western European countries triggering new waves. However, despite an increase in the number of cases, the number of deaths has been significantly lower in all these countries with high COVID-19 vaccine coverage.
On 21 October 2021, India crossed an important milestone of administering 1 billion COVID-19 vaccine doses. As of 03 November 2021, 1.07 billion doses were administered in India. Data as per the COWIN dashboard indicates that around 73.79 crore persons received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine and around 33.54 crores have received both doses. This implies that around 24% of the Indian Population is fully vaccinated while 36% of the adult population is fully vaccinated.
While India is next only to China in terms of the quantum of vaccine doses administered, the coverage in terms of the share of the population vaccinated is lower than in a few other countries. In the first story of this two-part series, we look at the trends of vaccination in a few select countries which have higher vaccination rates. The data is sourced from the information available on OurWorldinData.org, which has collated information from official and reliable sources of respective countries. The data is as of 31 October 2021.
Nearly 58% of the US population is fully vaccinated
The USA has the highest population in the world after China & India. Even in terms of the total number of COVID-19 vaccines doses administered, it ranks after these two countries. By the end of October 2021, a total of 42.2 crore vaccine doses were administered in the country. Out of its total population, 66.5% i.e., around 22.15 crores have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine.  Around 19.24 crore population i.e., around 57% of the population have received both doses and are fully vaccinated. Since May’2021, citizens above 12 years of age are eligible for the vaccine in the USA.
USA has also allowed for booster shots of COVID-19 vaccine (Pfizer-BioNTech) since September’2021. As per the available information, around 1.86 crore doses of booster doses are also administered in the USA. The 10-day average suggests that the USA is administering around 9-10 lakh vaccine doses a day. The number of doses administered in a day has increased over the period.
On the other hand, the trends over the past one & half months show a decline in the number of new COVID-19 cases being reported in the country. Currently, around 60-70 thousand new COVID-19 cases are being reported per day (10-day average).   The peak prior to this decline was around 1.7 lakh cases a day. This is part of a distinct 5th wave in the USA. The greatest daily peak was observed during the 3rd wave, around the beginning of 2021, with 2.5 – 3 lakh cases a day. The USA had vaccinated only about 2% of its population by then. The fifth wave followed a period of fall in the number of vaccines doses administered. Overall, it can be concluded that the vaccination has prevented the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic as witnessed during the previous waves. As per a few reports, the 4th & 5th wave of COVID-19 in the USA is less fatal, with most of the reported cases being of those who did not take the vaccine. In the third wave during the beginning of 2021, the daily death toll peaked at around 4.5 thousand. The peak during the 5 wave was around 2 to 2.5 thousand.
Negligible difference between population receiving single-dose and those fully vaccinated in developed countries
Western European countries, especially Italy, France, Spain, etc. were among the first that were severely impacted by COVID-19, outside of China. The fatality rates during the first wave were very high in these countries, which has eventually reduced in the waves that followed. The vaccination rates in these countries are higher than in most of the other countries in the world. However, the population of these countries is not as high as China, India & USA. Even in the case of developed Asian countries like South Korea and Japan, the vaccination rates are higher.
Data indicates a significant trend in these countries which is that there is a negligible difference in the share of the population that received only one dose of the vaccine and the share of the population that is fully vaccinated.
Higher vaccination rates in Western European countries helped reduce fatalities
There has been a recurrence of new COVID-19 waves in a few of the Western European countries despite high vaccination coverage. In countries like Spain, the number of new COVID-19 cases has also been higher than earlier. But the high vaccination rates in these countries have ensured that the fatalities are minimum. Data suggests that fatalities have reduced significantly in these countries. Here is a snapshot of a few of the Western European countries:
United Kingdom
UK has the fourth-highest number of COVID-19 cases in the world and has the highest in Europe. Currently, the country is going through the last stages of a distinct 5th wave. The greatest peak in terms of the number of new cases was during early January-2021, which was the third wave in the UK with around 60 thousand cases a day at its peak.  Around that time, only about 5% of the population received a single dose of vaccination. By July 2021, the country started witnessing an increase in the number of new COVID-19 cases even though 50% of the population was already vaccinated.
New variants and mutations of COVID-19 are cited as reasons for the increase in the number of cases. By end of October 2021, around 73% of the population in the UK received at least one dose, while 67% of the population has been fully vaccinated. Around 11.6% of the population received a booster dose in the UK.
However, despite the increase in new COVID-19 cases, the vaccine has been effective in significantly reducing fatalities. During the peak of the third wave, there were more than 1.5 thousand daily deaths. In the recent COVID-19 waves, the number of daily deaths even at its peak was only around 180- 200.
France
The number of deaths during the first wave in France was around 1.5-1.7 thousand a day at its peak. During the second wave, the deaths were around 800 per day at their peak. Since the peak of the second wave during November 2020, the number of cases has come down gradually in France.
An increase in the number of new COVID-19 cases was recently observed starting August 2021 with a peak of around 30 thousand cases a day and deaths of 140-150 a day. The vaccination in France began after the second wave and by August 2021 i.e., by the time of the latest wave, around 66% of the population was vaccinated with at least one dose and half the population was fully vaccinated. By the end of October 2021, around 68% of the population is fully vaccinated.
As in the case of the UK, despite new waves resulting in the increase in the number of new COVID-19 cases, the number of deaths has reduced significantly.
This trend was also observed in other Western European countries that too reported high vaccination coverage.
In Germany, the number of deaths in the recent wave was around 100 a day compared to around 1.2 thousand daily deaths during the peak of the second wave prior to large-scale vaccination in the country. Around 66% of the population is fully vaccinated so far in Germany.
The recent wave in Italy resulted in substantially lower numbers than during the 2 & 3 waves, with much lower fatalities (50 deaths a day on average). Spain, which has fully vaccinated nearly 80% of its population has witnessed very few deaths even during the surge in the 5 wave between July-August of 2021. By that time, around 40% of the population was already fully vaccinated with 55% receiving at least one dose.
Trends highlight the positive impact of vaccination
As the data indicates, most of the countries which reported high vaccination coverage were better equipped in dealing with newer waves of COVID-19, with reduced hospitalizations & deaths despite an increase in the number of new cases. In almost all these countries with high vaccination coverage, the number of deaths has significantly reduced.
Apart from the high proportion of the vaccinated population, another significant aspect is the negligible difference between the population who received at least one dose and those that are fully vaccinated unlike in India where there is a significant difference.
In the next story, we would explore the trends in a few other countries in Latin America, Africa & Asia.

created: November 4, 2021


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Data: Despite Awareness & Other Efforts, Production of Millets is Largely Stagnant
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
March 2, 2023
While awareness about millets has increased coupled with various government initiatives to promote their consumption, the production of millets has largely remained stagnant over the last 15 years. The production has remained below 200 lakh tonnes for many years now.
The year 2023 is declared the ‘International Year of Millets’ by the UN, following India’s proposal.  India has earlier observed the year 2018 as the ‘National Year of Millets’. The declarations are aimed at spreading awareness on the contribution of millets to food security and nutrition and also scaling up the sustainable production and quality of millets. In the previous story, we saw what millets are, their nutritional, ecological, and economic benefits, and their potential to address various global issues. Some of the measures of national and state governments to promote the same were also discussed.
In this story, we see if there has been any change in the production of millets, especially in recent years, as there has been a shift in the global discourse towards millets. We also compare the production of millets with that of other major foodgrains such as rice, wheat, and maize.
India produces almost 40% of the World’s millets
India is the largest producer and second largest exporter of millets in the world. According to the data from the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service, as of February 2023, India produced 39% of the millets worldwide for the year 2022. India produced about 120 lakh tonnes of millets of the total 304.8 lakh tonnes produced globally in 2022. After India, Niger is the second highest producer accounting for about 11% followed by China accounting for 9%. The 3 countries together were responsible for almost half of the millets produced globally. The top 10 millet-producing countries contributed to 89% of the millets produced. Except for India and China, the remaining 8 countries are in Africa.
India is also the second largest producer of rice, contributing to one-quarter of the global production. With a share of 13% in global wheat production, India is the third-highest producer of wheat.
While production of maize has doubled, there has been no notable improvement in the production of nutricereals
Food grains include cereals and pulses. Apart from rice, wheat, and millets (also known as Nutri cereals), some major foodgrains cultivated in India are maize, barley, and pulses.  Maize, barley, and millets are together referred to as Nutri & Coarse Cereals. Cereals include rice, wheat, and these nutria & coarse cereals while pulses include tur, urad, gram, and lentils.
Production data for 15 years (since 2008-09) from the Directorate of Economics & Statistics under the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare is considered for this analysis. The data for 2022-23 is based on second advanced estimates of production for 2022-23.
The data reveals that the production of rice has gone up by 30% between 2008-09 and 2021-22. In 2022-23, it is estimated to cross 1308 lakh tonnes or 1.3 billion tonnes. During this period, the production of wheat has also increased by almost 34%. The production of maize has doubled since 2009-10. Rice, wheat, and maize together made up around 85% of the food grains produced in the country.
The production of pulses increased by 87% since 2008-09 while the output with respect to barley has been stagnant throughout the period. Likewise, there has not been any notable improvement in the production of Nutri cereals in this period.
Despite interventions, production of millets is estimated to drop further in 2022-23
In the 15 years between 2008-09 and 2022-23 (including the estimates for 2022-23), the average production of Nutri cereals has been 167 lakh tonnes per year. The production was more than 200 lakh tonnes in 2010-11 and dropped to 137.1 tonnes in 2018-19. However, since 2018-19, the production improved in the subsequent two years and dropped again in 2021-22 and is estimated to drop further, though marginally, in 2022-23. This drop in output is despite support to promote products such as increased MSP and implementation of Sub Mission on Nutri-Cereals (Millets) under National Food Security Mission (NFSM) alongside other initiatives.
The share of Nutri cereals produced as against the total foodgrains produced in India has dropped over the years. Nutri cereals comprised 8% of foodgrain production in the country in 2010-11 which has now dropped to 5%.
Production of Jowar has dropped significantly over the years
Jowar, Bajra, Ragi, and other small millets have been categorized as Nutri cereals. The trend in the production of these millets is as follows:
7 states account for 89% of the millet production in India
According to a written reply in the Lok Sabha in February 2023, the average production of millets in the three years between 2019-20 to 2021-22 was around 170 lakh tonnes. In terms of average millet production, Rajasthan was the highest producer with nearly 49 lakh tonnes produced annually followed by Maharashtra and Karnataka with around 24 lakh tonnes. Uttar Pradesh with an average of 22.3 lakh tonnes was the fourth highest producer. Together, these four states alone accounted for almost 70% of the millet production.
Including Haryana, Gujarat, and Madhya Pradesh which also recorded an annual average production of more than ten lakhs (million) tonnes each, the seven states were responsible for 89% of the millet production in India.  States such as Odisha, Assam, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, and Maharashtra are implementing their own State Millet Missions to boost production and consumption.
Demand creation through considering people’s needs may help promote millets in India
Despite the global efforts to shift to ‘superfood millets’ led by India, there has been no significant improvement in the production of millets in the country as revealed by data. The scale of production of millets is much lower than that of staples of rice and wheat. Though various policy measures have been taken to spread awareness and enhance production and encourage startups, it is time to also focus on demand creation. Though millets were ancient staple foods, rice and wheat substituted them because of easier availability. Thus, marketing value-added products with low cooking time, improved processing and storage, and availability at affordable prices are key to increasing the consumption of millets.
Featured Image: Production of Millets


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Data: Despite the Exponential Growth in Digital Transactions, Currency to GDP Ratio Remains High
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
November 17, 2022
By end of October 2022, RBI data shows that the value of ‘Currency in Circulation’ (CIC) was more than 32 lakh crore rupees. Data from the last 20 years shows a consistent increase in CIC except during demonetization. Even the Currency to GDP Ratio is now higher than levels seen in the years before demonetization.
Central banks generally have the exclusive right to issue local currency notes. The currency in circulation in an economy is controlled by these central banks to meet their economic targets. It is dependent on the demand which is in turn influenced by multiple macroeconomic factors such as economic growth, interest rates, etc. Currency is considered the safest liquid asset to purchase goods and services.
In India, this right to issue currency is vested with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The RBI provides weekly data on the ‘Currency in Circulation’ (CIC) in the country in its  Weekly Statistical Supplement under the head, “Reserve Money Components & Sources”. Currency in Circulation (CIC) includes notes in circulation, rupee coins and small coins. Rupee coins and small coins include the ten-rupee coins issued since October 1969, two rupee coins issued since November 1982 and five-rupee coins issued since November 1985.
Value of currency in circulation has grown consistently over the years, except during demonetization
Based on the weekly data, the trend in CIC in the country has been mapped in the chart below. The data is spanning 1,120 weeks or more than 21 years, from 06 July 2001 to 28 October 2022.
On 06 July 2001, the value of CIC was Rs. 2.34 lakh crores which have increased to Rs. 32.11 lakh crores as on 28 October 2022, a growth of over 13 times in about 21 years. The growth has been consistent except in the period of demonetization of over 15 months starting 11 November 2016 before it rose to the pre-November 2016 levels in February 2018. This is due to the unprecedented step of demonetizing the 500 and 1000 rupees notes in circulation announced on 08 November 2016. The value of the currency in circulation fell to Rs. 8.98 lakh crores in January 2017 comparable to the levels in October & November of 2010.
Growth of CIC in 2021-22 below 10% for the third time since 2001
As noted earlier, a consistent increase in the value of CIC is visible over the years, except in 2016-17. For this chart, the value of CIC as of 31 March of each fiscal year or the date nearest to 31 March is considered.
The value of CIC was Rs. 2.51 lakh crores as on 31 March 2002 which has increased to Rs. 31.34 lakh crores as of 31 March 2022.  Between 2001-02 and 2011-12, the annual growth rate was between 12% to 19%. However, in 2012-13, the growth rate dropped to below 12% and further down to 9.24% in 2013-14. Following growth of nearly 15% in 2015-16, the currency in circulation dropped by nearly 20% in 2016-17 due to demonetization. In the subsequent year 2017-18, the growth was 37%. After returning to the pre-demonetization rate of growth in 2018-19 to 2020-21, in 2021-22, the growth rate dropped to 9.8%. Growth of CIC dropped below 10% for the second time in 2021-22, and the third time if the demonetization year is also considered.
Growth of CIC in the seven months of 2022-23 is slow compared to previous years
In the seven months of 2022-23, the value has gone up from Rs. 31.34 lakh crores as of 01 April 2022 to Rs. 32.11 lakh crore rupees as on 28 October 2022, an increase of 2.45%. The growth rate in these seven months in 2019-20, 2020-21, and 2021-22 was 5.6%, 10.5%, and 3.15% respectively. The growth so far in 2022-23 has been lower compared to the earlier years. The high growth in 2020-21 may be due to panic withdrawal & increased demand for currency during the COVID-19 lockdown.
The volume of currency notes in circulation is the number of currency notes that are in circulation. Currently, the Reserve Bank of India issues notes of the denominations – Rs. 2, Rs. 5, Rs. 10, Rs. 20, Rs. 50, Rs. 100, Rs. 200, Rs. 500, and Rs. 2000.
As per RBI’s annual report, the volume of currency notes in circulation was 7.35 thousand crores by the end of 2012-13 which increased to 13.05 thousand crores in 2021-22. While the overall volume of notes in circulation has increased by nearly 78% in the last decade, the annual growth rate in 2021-22 has been less than 5%, which is lower compared to previous years, except in 2017-18 when the growth was 2%.
The currency- GDP Ratio has increased
Data indicates that CIC increased year-on-year in terms of both value and volume. The ratio of CIC to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) considers the size of the Indian economy. The CIC is also expected to grow with the economy making the ratio a better indicator to understand the CIC in the economy. In its annual report, RBI has used the GDP figures for 2011-12 base on Current Market Prices. Also, data for 2021-22 is as on 25 March 2022.
In the last decade, the trend in currency to GDP ratio reveals that there has been an overall increase in the last decade, from 12% in 2012-13 to 13.7% in 2021-22. However, the Currency-GDP ratio which was 12.1% by the end of 2015-16 when the demonetization took place, dropped to 8.7% by the end of 2016-17. However, it has improved in the subsequent years, even overtaking the figure of the years before demonetization. In 2020-21, the ratio was 14.4%, up from 12.2% in 2019-20. This is the highest in the decade. By the end of 2021-22, the ratio declined to 13.7%. It remains to be seen if this trend continues in the coming years as economic activities rebound to pre-pandemic levels.
Physical currency continues to be relevant
Despite an exponential rise in online money transfers and digital payments in the last decade, the CIC has also increased even as a share of GDP. As observed in a story by Factly, the average size of online transactions such as RTGS, NEFT, and UPI has declined which shows that people are using online or digital modes of payment for smaller amounts. In other words, despite the widespread use of the digital modes of transactions, physical currency not only continues to be relevant, but the demand also growing as the Cash-GDP ratio shows.

created: November 17, 2022


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Despite the sale of 3 lakh Electric Vehicles in 2021, their share is still negligible
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
February 11, 2022
After a fall in 2020 on account of the pandemic, the sale of electric vehicles increased significantly in 2021 when more than 3 lakh electric vehicles were sold. Close to 95% of the electric vehicles sold in 2021 were 2-wheelers & 3-wheelers. Despite the seemingly impressive numbers, the share of the electric vehicle sales in the total motor vehicle sales is still negligible.
Globally, there has been a push for shift from Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles to electric vehicles following concerns over climate change, increase in energy costs, pollution, and depletion of fossil fuels. According to a recent report by the International Energy Agency (IEA), a Paris-based intergovernmental organization, about 1.3 lakh electric cars were sold every week in 2021. This number is the same as the total number of electric cars sold throughout the year in 2012. As per IEA, over 2.2 million electric cars were sold in 2019 accounting for 2.5% of the global car sales. In 2020, though the overall sales of cars had contracted, electric car sales rose to 3 million accounting for 4.1% of total car sales which doubled in 2021 to 6.6 million accounting for 9% of the total global car sales. In the last three years, the market share of electric cars has more than tripled globally.
Governments have rolled out incentives to boost shift to Electric Vehicles
In India, the government came up with the National Electric Mobility Mission Plan (NEMMP) 2020 in the year 2012 which aimed at boosting electric vehicle manufacturing in the country and faster adoption of electric vehicles. As part of the plan, the government is implementing the FAME India Scheme since 2015 in a phased manner. Under the scheme, the focus has been on providing demand incentives, charging infrastructure development, and demand creation, among others. Electric vehicle policies are at different stages of proposal/implementation across most states. Recently, the Odisha government announced a subsidy of 15% up to Rs. 5,000, Rs.12,000 and Rs.1 lakh for two, three, and four-wheeler electric vehicles. According to reports, the Delhi Government has launched registration for centres which will undertake electric retrofitting of old diesel and petrol vehicles and convert them into electric cars.
VAHAN dashboard provides data on the registration of motor vehicles
The VAHAN dashboard provides data on the registration of motor vehicles from across the country including electric vehicles. Maintained by the Ministry of Road Transport & Highways (MoRTH), the VAHAN dashboard is a centralized database of registration of vehicles from 33 out of 37 states/UTs which are enrolled in VAHAN 4.0. The figures from Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Lakshadweep, and Madhya Pradesh are not included here. The figures pertain to 1386 RTOs of the total 1597 RTOs in the country.
Significant increase in registration of electric vehicles in 2021
As per the data on the dashboard, the registration of electric vehicles has increased considerably since 2013. Only about 5,500 electric vehicles were registered in the country in 2013 and 2014 put together which increased to more than 9,000 in 2015. It was in 2015 that the first phase of the FAME Scheme was launched. The number of registrations crossed 50,000 marking an increase by 5.7 times, in 2016. Since then, there was a gradual growth in electric vehicle registrations until 2019. During this period, the registrations more than tripled.
Under Phase-I of the FAME India Scheme, over 2.8 lakh electric and hybrid vehicles were supported. Under phase-II which commenced in 2019, over 2.31 lakh Electric Vehicles have been supported till February 2022, according to the Ministry of Heavy Industries.
In 2020, the pandemic’s impact on the economy and its effect on vehicle production and sales meant that the electric vehicle registrations also came down. The number of electric vehicles registered in 2020 dropped to 1.19 lakh, the lowest since 2018. However, in 2021, a record 3.11 lakh electric vehicles were registered, more than the total number of electric vehicles registered between 2012 and 2018.
As on 10 February 2022, in only about 40 days into 2022, close to 66,000 electric vehicles have been registered. If the trend continues throughout the year, 2022 might well see over 5 lakh electric vehicle registrations if not more.
Despite an increase, electric vehicles constitute only 1.9% of total vehicles registered in 2021
The number of electric vehicles registered has increased manifold over the years. However, as a share of the total number of vehicles registered including ICE and Hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles account for only 0.35% of the total number with less than 10 lakhs registered so far. For context, the VAHAN data reveals that as on 10 February 2022, nearly 28.28 crore vehicles have been registered in the country.
As a share of all vehicles registered in each year, electric vehicles constituted less than 1% until 2020. In 2021, for the first time, the share of electric vehicles crossed 1% constituting about 1.85% of all vehicles registered in 2021. In 2022, electric vehicles constituted 3.44% of all vehicles registered till 10 February 2022.
Moreover, the overall vehicle registration in the country dropped from 2.27 crores in 2018 to 1.63 crores in 2020 and increased slowly to 1.68 crores in 2021. In other words, the overall vehicle registration dropped by 26% between 2018 and 2021. During this same period, the registration of electric vehicles increased from 1.32 lakhs to 3.1 lakhs, about a 2.35 times increase.
Two-wheeler and three-wheeler- electric vehicles accounted for more than 95% of the electric vehicles registered each year while the same two categories accounted for more than 75% of the total vehicles registered each year between 2017 and 2021. The categorization used here is the following.
Electric two-wheeler registrations increased significantly in 2021
The registration of four-wheeler electric vehicles has been increasing slowly from less than 1000 every year until 2016 to 13,352 in 2021. Registration of electric three-wheelers witnessed a steep growth and increased 23 times between 2015 and 2021. On the other hand, the registration of electric two-wheelers witnessed a sudden sharp increase by over 5 times in 2021. The registration of electric goods and other vehicles has been low throughout.
As a share of overall vehicles registered in each of these categories, electric three-wheelers which constituted less than 17% of the total three-wheelers registered in 2017, constituted more than 42% of the three-wheelers registered in 2021. Likewise, the share of electric two-wheelers has also increased from a near negligible number in 2017 to 1.2% in 2021. The share of electric four-wheelers and goods and other electric vehicles was below 0.5% in 2021.
UP and Delhi account for more than 40% of electric vehicles registered since 2017
Of the total 8.78 lakh, electric vehicles registered between 1 January 2017 and 10 February 2022, 29.6% (2.6 lakh) were registered in Uttar Pradesh alone. More than 1 lakh vehicles were registered in Delhi, accounting for 12%. Ten states including UP, Delhi, Karnataka, Bihar, Maharashtra, Assam, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal, and Haryana had registered more than 25,000 electric vehicles each and accounted for more than 87% of the electric vehicles registered in the period.
The trend across the states of UP, Delhi, Maharashtra, Assam, Rajasthan, Haryana, Chhattisgarh, and Jharkhand is similar to that observed at the national level while in Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, there has been a continuous increase in electric vehicle registration despite the pandemic.
Except in West Bengal, the registrations increased between 2 to 9 times across all major states in 2021. Gujarat witnessed an 8.7 times increase in 2021, while Kerala and Odisha registered a 6 times increase. This varying trend across states is influenced by the respective state’s electric vehicle policy. Gujarat government announced a subsidy of up to Rs. 1.5 lakh, Rs.5 lakhs, and Rs.15 lakhs for two, three, and four-wheelers respectively in 2021, based on battery capacity. Tamil Nadu offers 100% road tax exemption till 30 December 2022 in addition to waiver on registration charges while the Delhi government offers a purchase incentive of up to Rs. 30,000/- per vehicle to the registered owner.
However, it must be noted that data for Telangana, Andhra Pradesh & Madhya Pradesh is not available to comment on the trends in those states.
Hero Vehicles is the most preferred brand
The buzz around electric vehicles increased in 2021 with Ola Electric opening bookings for its electric scooters in September 2021 with an initial booking fee of Rs. 499. The company announced in September 2021 that they sold scooters worth over Rs. 600 crores on the first day of the sale, and crossed Rs.1,100 crores on the second day. While the company claimed that it had dispatched over 4,000 vehicles, the data in the Road Transport Ministry’s VAHAN Dashboard revealed that only 2,272 were registered so far in 33 of the 37 states/UTs.
Among other renowned vehicle manufacturers, more than 82,000 electric vehicles registered were manufactured by Hero Electric Vehicles Pvt Ltd as on 10 February 2022. More than 62,000 electric vehicles were manufactured by Okinawa Autotech Pvt Ltd and more than 59,000 vehicles of YC Electric Vehicles have been registered. More than 25,000 vehicles were made by Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd, and 24,400 vehicles of Ather Energy Pvt. Ltd has been registered. Bajaj Auto Ltd.’s vehicles constituted nearly 21,000 registrations while Tata Motors Pvt Ltd.’s vehicles constituted more than 15,000 and TVS Motor Company constituted more than 13,000 electric vehicle registrations.
Despite considerable growth, the shift to electric is still a long way away
While the growth in numbers is encouraging, the share of electric vehicles is still only around 2% of two-wheeler sales meaning that it is going to take a long time before the shift to electric vehicles takes place. While financial incentives are necessary to spur demand, it is not alone sufficient to rapidly increase the adoption of electric vehicles. Issues around batteries remain the single biggest challenge with other challenges such as availability of raw materials, electricity tariff policies, accessibility/availability of fast-charging stations, etc. Until all these are addressed together, the electric vehicle sales might still be paltry compared to the overall sales.
Featured Image: Electric Vehicle Sales

created: February 11, 2022


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Data: Did the Withdrawal of Rs. 2000 Note Affect UPI & Debit Card Transactions?
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
June 2, 2023
The RBI recently announced the withdrawal of Rs. 2000 notes.  There are also reports of increased cash transactions in businesses like petrol pumps, jewellery shops, etc. But did this announcement affect the UPI & Debit Card transactions?
On 19 May 2023, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced the withdrawal of Rs. 2000 denomination banknotes from circulation. The Rs. 2000 denomination note was introduced in November 2016, post-demonetization of the old Rs. 500 and Rs. 1000 notes. The stated objective of introducing this high-value currency was to meet the currency requirement of the economy in an expeditious way after the withdrawal of Rs. 500 and Rs. 1000 currency notes in circulation.  The RBI stated that the purpose of issuing notes of Rs. 2000 was met once currency notes of other denominations became available in adequate quantities.
Data from RBI’s Annual report 2022-23 also indicates a declining trend in the circulation of Rs. 2000 notes.
RBI in its circular mentioned that the public can deposit Rs. 2000 notes into their accounts or exchange them into any denominations at any of the branches until 30 September 2023, subject to certain rules. It further stated that the bank notes would continue to be a legal tender and they can be used for carrying out commercial transactions.
Media has reported an increase in cash transactions involving Rs. 2000 currency notes at various establishments including petrol pumps, restaurants, etc. There are also reports of a few business establishments encouraging customers to transact in Rs. 2000 currency notes and avail offers, aimed at increasing their business.
But what does the data say about the impact of withdrawing Rs. 2000 from circulation on digital payment transactions? Here is an analysis.
Methodology: For this analysis, RBI’s data on payments done through different payment systems is considered. Detailed & processed datasets of this information can be found on Dataful.  A daily seven-day moving average for the volume and value of the transactions is considered to offset the variances in daily transactions caused due to various reasons such as weekends, starting days of a month, etc. Three payment types are considered – UPI, Credit Card POS transactions and Debit Card POS transactions, as all these are the most likely payment options substituted to transact using cash, in this case, Rs. 2000 currency note.
For a better comparative analysis of the trends post the announcement by RBI on 19 May 2023, the 7-day daily moving average for the period 19 May to 30 May 2023 is compared with the information during the same period in the months of January-April, 2023.
Fall in UPI transactions during last week of May 2023
One of the most discernible changes in the economy post-demonetisation is the shift to UPI Payments. As per the statements of the government, a cashless economy was one of the intended objectives of demonetisation. Data over the years does indicate a substantial increase in the volume and the value of UPI transactions. Factly’s story on digital transactions can be read here.
As indicated above, we have considered the trends in transactions for the period 19 to the end of the month for the period January-May’2023. 7-day moving average during this period of a month indicates a general increase in both the volume and value of UPI transactions compared to the same period the previous month. This trend can be observed from Febraury-April’2023. Although the trends within the period are not consistent, the general trend during these months has been that the overall numbers were higher than the preceding month.
However, this is not the case for May 2023. The trends indicate that while the numbers were higher during the first few days of this period, it tapered off in the subsequent days. In January 2023, the daily value of transactions was around Rs. 37-39 thousand crores, in February it was around Rs. 39-41 thousand crores, in March it is Rs.41-43 thousand crores which increased to around Rs. 43-46 thousand crores in April. However, in May 2023, it fell from Rs. 46 thousand crores to around Rs. 43 thousand crores.
Higher decline in Debit Card POS transactions compared to earlier months
Among the various payment options that were impacted by UPI transactions, debit card POS are the most impacted. Data does indicate a consistent fall in the value and volume of debit card transactions over the past few years. For the period analysed for the story, the decline in the numbers for Debit card POS transactions is very much visible. However, compared to the decline in the earlier months, the decline was steeper during May 2023.
The correlation between UPI and Debit Card POS transactions in the earlier months was that the decline in Debit card transactions corresponded with an increase in UPI transactions. However, as highlighted above, there is a decline in UPI transactions as well in the days following RBI’s announcement indicating that this fall in UPI & Debit Card POS transactions are substituted with other means of payment like cash.
Growth of Credit Card POS transactions remained stagnant
Another payment option that is an alternative to cash transactions is Credit card POS payments. However, compared to the other two payment options i.e., UPI and Debit Card POS, there is no discernible fall.  While there is no discernible fall in the value and volume of the Credit Card POS transactions during the period after RBI announcements, there is also no growth. This contrasts with the trends in the earlier months where there is a growth in the credit card POS transaction.
The trends especially in the case of UPI transactions and Debit Card POS indicate a decline post-RBI’s announcement regarding the withdrawal of Rs. 2000 from circulation. Though we cannot directly correlate this fall with an increase in cash transactions, various news reports and considering the fact there isn’t any other development which would have impacted the trends, people resorting to the use of Rs. 2000 notes cannot be ruled out.
Featured Image: Withdrawal of Rs. 2000 notes


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Data doesn't indicate any correlation between use of EVMs & Anti-Incumbency
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
May 11, 2019
Few Psephologists have suggested that there was 90% pro-incumbency in Lok Sabha & Assembly elections when India used ballot papers. They went onto say that the use of EVMs has reversed this trend and now, more than 90% of the results are anti-incumbent. But the data doesn’t support this theory.
Data from the Election Commission of India (ECI) website was considered for this analysis. The methodology is explained towards the end of the article.
A total of more than 350 election results (State Assembly & Lok Sabha) were considered and each of the results were categorized as ‘Pro’ or ‘Anti’.
Now much difference between Pre-EVM & Post-EVM results
The consensus on the use of Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs) was reached in 1998 and their use was progressively increased since then. EVMs were used for all the constituencies starting 2001.
Before EVMs were introduced in 1998, more than 220 elections were held. Out of these, the incumbent party lost in 121 (53.5%) where as the incumbent won in the remaining 105 (46.5%).
Till date, after the introduction of EVMs in 1998, more than 120 elections were held. Out of these, the incumbent lost in 70 (56%) while the incumbent won in 55 (44%).
In other words, the pro & anti-incumbent trends were not very different before & after the introduction of EVMs.
No effect of EVMs on the incumbency trends
The pro or anti incumbency trends across the years were more based on the political climate during that time than the use of ballots or EVMs.
For instance, the first big anti-incumbency trend was in the 1977 elections (immediately after emergency) when out of the 18 results, 16 were anti-incumbent and only two were pro. Similarly in 1980, post the failure of the Janata experiment, 13 out of the 15 results were anti-incumbent and only 2 were pro. In states like Tamil Nadu & Kerala, the anti-incumbency trend started in the late 1960s, after which the incumbent lost in almost every election.
So, it can be concluded that there is no impact of the use of EVMs on the incumbency trends in Indian elections.
Methodology
For the purpose of this analysis, the following methodology was followed.


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Data: Domestic Air Passenger Traffic down to 1/6th of 2019 levels in June & July 2020 - FACTLY
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
August 22, 2020
Though domestic air travel was allowed from end of May, data from DGCA indicates that the demand is nowhere near to pre-COVID or 2019 levels. In June & July 2020, domestic air passenger traffic was down to 17% of the 2019 levels. Indigo commanded a market share of more than 60% in July 2020.
In view of the COVID-19 pandemic, travel restrictions were imposed in India and abroad. To restrict the movement of people, flights were suspended in India for over two months (April & May). Domestic flights resumed services in India from 25 May 2020 with heightened safety measures like social distancing, respiratory hygiene, regular disinfection of aircrafts and airports, and provision of masks and face shields for travellers.
The aviation sector was among the worst hit due to the pandemic. The lockdown measures and the additional expenses for safety have put to test the sustainability of airline companies. Even after resumption of domestic air travel, it is not business as usual. People have limited their travel and are travelling only when it’s absolutely necessary. Data of domestic air travel in India for the months of May, June & July of 2020 indicates that airlines companies will have to wait a little longer for the demand to get back to normal.
Domestic commercial airline services were grounded for two months to control COVID-19
Following the announcement of nationwide lockdown, domestic commercial airlines were grounded from 25 March 2020 for a period of two months. From 25 May 2020, domestic airlines resumed services in a calibrated manner. There was no domestic commercial operation of aircrafts in the month of April. When domestic flights resumed operation, the number of domestic flights that could be operated was only 33% of their pre-COVID capacity. This was later increased to 45%.
Only around 43 lakh passengers travelled by air since domestic flights began operation after the Lockdown
The Director General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) has reported that 2.81 Lakh passengers have travelled in the last week of May 2020 after domestic flights were allowed. In June 2020, this number went up to 19.84 Lakh passengers and to 21.07 Lakh passengers in July 2020. This is the first time in the last many years when the domestic air passenger traffic has decreased in the months of May, June, and July compared to the previous year.  The domestic passenger traffic  plummeted by nearly 97.7% in May, 83.5% in June, and 82.3% in July 2020 following the pandemic. In other words, the domestic air passenger traffic in June 2020 was only 16.5% of the number in June 2019 and in July 2020, it was only 17.7% of the number in July 2019.
Between January & July 2020, Domestic Air Passenger Traffic dropped by 58%
Between 2016 and 2019, the domestic air passenger traffic in the first seven months (January to July) increased by 47%, from over 5.6 crore passengers in 2016 to 8.25 crores in 2019. In 2020, this number has dropped by almost 58%. Only a total of 3.72 crore passengers had travelled in 2020 between January and July, of which more than 3.29 crore passengers had travelled prior to the lockdown- before 25 March 2020. Only 43.72 Lakh passengers have travelled between 25 May and 31 July 2020. In the months from May to July,  2.51 crore passengers had travelled in 2016, 2.93 crores in 2017, 3.47 crores in 2018, and 3.61 crores in 2019, according to DGCA’s monthly air traffic statistics.
Around 49,000 persons travelled by Air India in May 2020
From the time domestic flight services resumed post lockdown, the number of passengers opting for private airlines has increased. Around 49 thousand passengers, accounting for 17% of those who travelled in May 2020 travelled by Air India. Since then, the proportion of passengers travelling in Air India has dropped to 12.2% and 9.1% in June and July respectively. The percentage of passengers travelling via Spice Jet, Air Asia, and Vistara has also declined over the three months. Air Deccan, Air Heritage, and Zoom Air had not operated during the three months while Go Air began operations from June.
IndiGo commanded 60.4% of the market share in July 2020
Indigo has led the domestic market and that too by quite some distance. IndiGo’s market share in the domestic market has increased from 50.6% in May to 52.8% in June, and to 60.4% in July. Of the 43 Lakh passengers who travelled post lockdown till end of July, around 24.6 Lakh passengers or 56% had travelled via IndiGo. This is higher than the total number of passengers who travelled in May and June 2020, put together. This is possible also because of the large fleet that Indigo has at its disposal.
IndiGo’s website also mentions that the airlines has had 10 consecutive years of profitable operations. According to a Lok Sabha answer on financial performance of different airlines, in 2018-19, Indigo had reported a loss for the first time since 2014-15. Majority of the airlines companies had reported their worst losses in 2018-19 which would only be further exacerbated due to the pandemic, as already seen in an earlier story by Factly. The potential impact of the pandemic on the aviation sector will depend on its duration and severity.
Asia pacific region is expected to face a loss of $29 billion, more than one-third of global loss
According to International Air Transport Association (IATA), the airlines in the Asia Pacific region will be the hardest hit by the COVID-19 crisis with losses expected to be around $29 billion in 2020, more than one-third of $84.3 billion loss expected globally in the sector. Further, it would take a couple of years to return to the levels of activity in 2019. As jobs, conferences, and social gatherings shift to online mode, at least for the next couple of months, it would indeed take some time for the demand and operations to get back to how it was prior to the pandemic. Aviation sector is also affected by the impact of COVID-19 on the tourism industry. Survival and sustenance of airline companies has become more difficult because of the pandemic.


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Data: Domestic Air Passenger traffic still significantly lower than in 2019
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
April 28, 2022
The aviation sector is one of the worst affected due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Air traffic data from DGCA indicates that while there is an improvement in numbers, Domestic Air Passenger traffic is still significantly lower than in 2019. The contribution of the top-10 and top-20 routes to the overall traffic has also reduced over the years.
The Director-General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) releases reports on domestic passenger traffic and the traffic on various domestic routes on a monthly basis. According to these reports, the aviation sector in India handled more than 10 crore passengers each year prior to the pandemic. However, the sector was among the worst hit due to the pandemic, especially during the first wave in 2020 when the services were all grounded. Since then, different waves of the pandemic, lockdown measures and the additional expenses for safety-related measures have affected the recovery of the sector. Coupled with these, people, in general, had also limited their travel. However, the restrictions are almost fully relaxed now with a major share of the population being fully vaccinated. With tourism, work from the office, physical meetings resuming, the aviation sector is expected to witness a recovery in the coming months and the traffic numbers might reach the pre-pandemic levels very soon.
COVID-19 had significantly hit the aviation sector
The total number of passengers who travelled on domestic flights was on the rise before the outbreak of COVID-19. A total of 11.7 crore passengers were handled by domestic airlines in 2017 which increased to 14.4 crores in 2019, an increase of 23.1%. However, in 2020, this dropped by 56.3% to 6.3 crores.  In 2021, the domestic passenger traffic improved by 33% and reached 8.38 crores. However, the total domestic air passenger traffic in 2021 was still 45% less than the traffic in 2019.
Three months into 2022, the number of passengers on domestic routes is 2.48 crores. With 9 months remaining in 2022, the total domestic air passenger traffic in 2022 is expected to comfortably cross the 2021 levels even if the current trend holds.
The year-on-year comparison of the domestic air passenger traffic in the first three months of each year (January to March) reveals that the domestic passenger traffic has improved in 2022 by 6% as compared to 2021. Between 2018 and 2020, the annual average domestic air passenger traffic was 3.4 crores in the first three months which means that the current passenger traffic in 2022 is at least 1 crore below the pre-pandemic levels.
For the first time in 20 months, more than 1 crore passengers travelled in November 2021
The monthly domestic air passenger traffic data since January 2017 shows that there was a consistent increase in traffic before the onset of the pandemic.  The average monthly traffic was 94 lakhs in the first three quarters of 2017, which crossed 1 crore in the last quarter of the year. Between March and November 2018, the average number of passengers was over 1.14 crore which crossed 1.25 crores in December 2018 and January 2019. The average monthly traffic was over 1.2 crores in 2019. Since then, the average monthly domestic traffic dropped to below 70 lakhs in 2020 and 2021.
December 2019 witnessed the highest ever monthly traffic of over 1.3 crores. This is more than the total number of domestic air passengers during the six months of April and September 2020. A steep decline in passenger traffic in the periods- March and August 2020, and April and July 2021, are evident attributed to the first and second waves of the pandemic.
Usually, the months of December and January witness the most traffic than the rest of the months due to the holiday & festival season. However, in January 2022, the number of passengers was the lowest since August 2021 and had dropped by almost 43% as compared to December 2021. Compared to January 2021, the number of passengers carried in January 2022 was 17%. This can be attributed to the third wave of pandemic due to the Omicron variant. The number of passengers crossed 1 crore again in March 2022.
After the onset of the pandemic, for the first time after 20 months after February 2020, the number of passengers crossed 1 crore in November 2021. The rebound to normal passenger traffic has been much faster after the third wave compared to the previous waves.
The contribution of the top 10 and top 20 routes to the total has declined over the years
The DGCA also provides monthly domestic city pair-wise data. That is, it provides data on the number of passengers commuting to and from a pair of cities, say city 1 and city 2. For this analysis, the total number of passengers commuting between city 1 and city 2 in a specific year has been calculated by adding the total number of passengers commuting to and from the two cities through the 12 months.
In 2017, the domestic passenger traffic across the top 20 routes accounted for 42.5% of the total domestic passenger traffic. However, since then, the share of the top 20 routes in the overall traffic has declined. In 2018, the top 20 routes accounted for only 39% of the traffic which dropped to 32.7% in 2021. In 2022, these routes have accounted only for less than 20% of the total traffic. The latest data on city pair-wise traffic is that of February 2022 and hence the data for 2022 is for the months of January & February only.
Likewise, the share of the traffic of the top 10 routes has dropped from 27% in 2017 to 25% in 2018, and to less than 21% in the following years. In 2022, these routes accounted for only 12.5% of the total. The decline in the share of the top 10 and top 20 routes may be attributed to the increase in the number of routes & the number of cities that are now connected by air. As of February 2022, 528 routes were being operated, up from 311 routes in January 2017, an increase of 41%.
‘Delhi – Mumbai’ and ‘Delhi – Bengaluru’ are the most popular routes
The top 10 routes with the greatest domestic air passenger traffic each year from 2017 to 2022 are depicted in the following chart. The data clearly indicates that the routes connecting either Delhi or Mumbai are the most popular. Since 2017, traffic between Delhi & Mumbai has always been the greatest followed by the traffic between Delhi & Bengaluru. Mumbai- Bengaluru, which used to account for the third-highest traffic in 2017 and 2018, stands at the 9th and 10th position in 2021 and 2022. Other routes which have always been among the top 10 are Delhi & Hyderabad, and Delhi & Kolkata. Except in 2019 and 2020, Mumbai & Goa has been in the top 10 as well. Since 2020, Delhi – Srinagar route has been in the top 10.
While the pandemic severely affected the sector, it remains to be seen if the government’s Regional Connectivity Scheme – RCS Udan helps increase the domestic air passenger traffic in times to come.
Featured Image:  Domestic Air Passenger traffic


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Data: Domestic Coal production fell in 2020-21 for the first time in 10 years
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
October 22, 2021
Reports of low coal stocks with several power plants in the country has put the spotlight on coal production in the country. Data from the Coal Ministry indicates that domestic coal production decreased in 2020-21 for the first time in 10 years. Here is a review.
As per the latest update available with Central Electricity Authority (CEA), as of 19 October 2021, 15 power plants with a capacity of 15.08 thousand MW have Coal stocks of zero days.
According to the Daily Coal Report, another 22 power plants with a capacity of 29.64 thousand MW have coal stocks lasting for one day. Overall, as of 19 October 2021, 107 out of the 135 plants monitored by CEA have stocks of less than 7 days. The low level of coal stock with several power plants has raised fears of an imminent shortage of power in many states.
There are many reasons resulting in the power plants running on lower stocks of coal– lower coal production, challenges with the supply, inter-ministry & inter-departmental communications, etc. Against reports of low stock, the Union government has reiterated that there is enough coal stock and there would be no disruption in the power supply.
The fears of power disruption are primarily because 70% of the installed electricity generation in the country is thermal. The trend in coal production has a direct impact on the power supply in the country.  In this story, we look at the trend in coal production, demand & supply of coal over the years.
Annual Coal production falls in 2020-21 for the first time in the last 10 years
As per the Monthly Statistical report of the Ministry of Coal for March 2021, the total coal production in the country for 2020-21 (end of March 2021) was 716.01 million tonnes (MT). This is well short of the target of 828.5 MT set for the year 2020-21. The production in 2020-21 is about 15 MT less than the production of 731 MT in 2019-20. As per the Ministry’s Annual Report – 2020-21, the total coal production for 2019-20 was 731 MT against a set target of 810 MT.
While the production of coal fell in 2020-21, the signs of a slowdown were visible even in the earlier year. The production for 2019-20 is only marginally higher compared to 2018-19. The annual increase in the production of coal was comparatively higher in the earlier years. In 2018-19, the production of coal increased by around 53 MT compared to 2017-18, which is the highest annual increase during the 10-year period between 2011and 2021.
As per the latest Monthly Statistical Report for August 2021, the coal production by end of August 2021 for 2021-22, is 263.94 MT. This is lower than the coal production during the same time last year (end of August 2020) when it was 278.5 MT. While the data for September 2021 is not available yet, the trend for the 5-month period in 2021-22 indicates that there could be a further fall in the coal production for 2021-22, unless there is a recovery in the remaining part of the year.
The specific reasons for the fall in coal production are not known yet. While the low production in 2020-21 could be in part attributed to COVID-19, the lower production even in the current fiscal have to do with other reasons.
In 2014, Supreme Court cancelled the allotment of 214 coal blocks. While it did not have an immediate impact on the production of coal, it could be one of the reasons for the Coal production not being stepped up to meet the targets and the demand.
The Actual Supply of coal is less than the estimated Demand
Data from the Ministry’s annual reports indicate that there is a year-on-year increase in the demand for coal i.e., there is an increase in the estimated consumption of coal. However, the overall supply fell short of the demand every year.
In the year 2019-20, the estimated demand for coal consumption was 1000 MT. However, the actual supply was about 95.5% of the demand with 955.3 MT.  The supply during 2019-20 was lower than the supply in the previous year when it was 968.03 MT in 2018-19. This bucks the trend of a year-on-year increase in the supply of coal. During the period 2015-16 to 2019-20, the supply of coal was highest in 2018-19 with 969.03 MT. However, even this was around 97.6% of the total demand.  The highest proportion of supply with respect to the demand was in 2017-18, where the supply of 898 MT was around 98.8% of the estimated demand of 908.4 MT.
The estimated demand for 2020-21 is the highest with 1085 MT. Conclusive data of the total supply for 2020-21 is not yet available and will be known from the 2021-22 annual report. As per the information available up to December 2020, the supply during the three quarters (April-December) was 602.85 MT. If the trends of production in 2020-21 is an indicator, there could be a fall in the actual supply also for 2020-21.
An increasing proportion of imports in the overall supply
As highlighted earlier, data indicates a shortfall in the supply of coal compared to the estimated demand based on consumption. It has to be noted that not all supply is through indigenous production. For 2019-20, out of the total supply of 955.31 MT, only 706.77 MT is indigenous. The balance of 248.54 MT is met through imports. The proportion of imports in the total supply is around 26%. This share is higher than in the earlier years. In fact, the volume of indigenous supply fell in 2019-20 compared to 2018-19. Meanwhile, there is an increasing trend observed in terms of the import of coal. Except for 2016-17, there has not only been an increase in the volume of coal imports, but its share in the overall supply has also increased.
For 2020-21, out of the 602.85 MT supplies until end of December 2020, the volume of imports is 113.28 MT.
50% increase in the Per-capita electricity consumption over the last 10 years
As per the ‘All India Electricity Statistics – General Review 2020’ report –, published by the Ministry of Power, the per-capita Electricity consumption for the year 2018-19 was 1181 kWh. The trend over the years indicates a consistent increase in the per capita consumption of electricity. In 2005-06 it was 631 kWh, which increased to 672 kWh in 2006-07. By the turn of the decade in 2010-11, it increased to 819 kWh. During the 10 years that ensued, the year-on-year per capita consumption has only increased. The latest information after 2018-19 is not yet available. Between 2009-10 & 2018-19, the per capita consumption has increased by more than 50%.
As indicated earlier in the story, a major portion of the electricity demand in the country is met through thermal plants. The increase in demand for coal is reflected in the increased consumption of electricity.
Fall in production of coal could lead to potential challenges with power supply
The supply of power is dependent on various factors. In addition to production-related challenges, issues in distribution also play an important role in the overall power supply scenario. The Aggregate Technical and Commercial (AT&C) losses in India stand at 21.83% in 2019-20. The AT&C losses include the Transmission and Distribution losses. Though there has been a decrease in AT&C losses over the years, they are still over 20%.
These losses coupled with production issues could exacerbate the power situation in the country. The trend of decrease in coal production that started two years ago before the onset of the pandemic seems to be continuing even in the current year. While the government maintains that we have enough stock to meet the demand, the decrease in indigenous coal production might make us increasingly reliant on imports.
Featured Image: Domestic Coal production

created: October 22, 2021


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Elderly Rural Women most vulnerable in terms of Economic & Social status
Sai Krishna Muthyanolla
August 10, 2021
The data from the Elderly in India – 2021 report indicates the stark difference in economic & social status of elderly women compared to their male counterparts. The urban-rural divide was also visible. Amongst all the sections, ‘Elderly Rural Women’ were the most vulnerable in terms of Economic & Social status.
In the earlier story, we observed that there is an increase in the share of the elderly population in the country, based on the Elderly in India – 2021 report published by the Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation (MoSPI). However, the proportion of the elderly population and the growth rate over the years varies widely across the states.
While the population & age-related statistics provide an understanding of the demographic trends, data related to their economic status, health, etc. can provide a more holistic understanding of the wellbeing of the elderly population in the country. The Elderly in India-2021 report provides information about the Economic Status along with the health & social status of the elderly. In this story, we look at these numbers.
Increasing trend of old-age dependency ratio, especially among elderly females
The Old-age dependency ratio is the number of elderly people above the age of 60 years per 100 persons in the age group of 15-59 years i.e., it is the ratio of elderly people (who are generally economically inactive) compared to the number of people of working age. This is used to measure the pressure on the productive population.
As per the 1961 census, the Old-age dependency ratio was 10.9% in India, which increased to 14.2% by the 2011 census.  It is projected to increase to 15.7% by 2021 and a much higher 20.1% by 2031. This increase is mostly driven by the higher Old-age dependency ratio among females.
Until 1991, both male & female old-age dependency ratios were similar. However, there was a comparatively higher increase in the ratio for females compared to that of the males after 1991.
In 2011, the ratio was 13.5% in males while in the case of females, it is 14.9%. While an increase in this ratio is projected for both males & females between 2021-31, a steeper increase is projected in the case of females with 21.5% by 2031.
The dependency ratio among the rural population is higher when compared to the urban population. In 2011, the rural old-age dependency ratio was 15.1% while among the urban population it is 12.4%. The report observes that this could be due to the higher concentration of working-age population in the urban areas.
Only about 10% of Rural & 11% of Urban elderly women are financially Independent
As per ‘NSS 75th Round: Social Consumption in India – Health’ conducted during 2017-18, only about 10% of the rural elderly women claimed to be financially independent. There is not much difference in the case of Urban elderly women where it was 11 %.
Meanwhile, the situation in the case of elderly men is better off.
Among the number of dependents on the elderly who are financially independent, there is an increase in ‘One’ dependent during the 2017-18 survey compared to the 2004 survey. This corroborates with one of the findings noted in an earlier story where there is an increase in the number of couples who are living alone, with a presumption that the one dependent of the elderly independent person, being the spouse. The data also indicates that a large majority of elderly who are employees are between the ages 60-64 years with the proportion of those employed in the 65 + age category being lower.
Greater gender disparity in terms of literacy with only 28% of elderly women being literate
Overall, there is an increase in the proportion of elderly who are literate. As per the 1991 census, the literates among the elderly accounted for 27% which increased to 44% by the 2011 census. However, as per the NSS 2017-18, it is estimated to be around 41.9%. There is an increase in both male & female populations who are literate.
The disparity is quite stark between Urban & rural.
Kerala & Andhra Pradesh have a higher proportion of the elderly population who responded as ailing
As per NSS 2017-18, around 27.7% of the elderly population have responded as ailing due to some form of illness during a 15-day period of the survey. There is not much difference between male & female populations with 27.5% & 27.9% respectively. However, as highlighted in the earlier story, large variations exist between the states.
Across most of the States, not much difference exists between male & female elderly populations who reported as ailing. But there are certain exceptions.
‘Elderly Rural Women’ the most vulnerable in terms of Economic & Social status
As the data indicates, huge disparities exist in terms of the Urban-rural divide as well as gender.
In terms of economic independence, literacy, etc. urban male demographic is better off among the elderly population. This is in line with the trend observed in the general population of the country.
The urban population seems to have an edge over the rural population in terms of financial independence, old-age dependency, etc. However, when it comes to gender, a rural male is still better off than that of an urban female. This is even though the urban-female elderly population is at par in literacy levels with the rural-male.
The situation of the rural female is worse off, despite slight improvement over the years. Policies more focused on the upliftment of the rural female are the need of the hour in addition to the blanket welfare policies for all the elderly. The greater amount of old-age pension to elderly widows and elderly single women could be a step in the right direction.
Why are a greater share of elderly in states like Kerala are reported as ‘Ailing’?
In terms of health, the states which have a large share of the elderly population also seem to have a greater proportion of them identifying as ailing. Considering the better health infrastructure & economic condition of a few of these states, this might seem odd and even counterintuitive.  But if one were to look at it closely, this is because of the way the NSS survey is conducted. The NSS survey asks the respondents for any of the 60 ailments listed in the schedule. In the case of a small set of important diseases, a medical diagnosis was made a necessary condition for classifying a reported condition as a case of the disease –diphtheria, whooping cough, TB, HIV/AIDS, cancers, diabetes, glaucoma, and hypertension. In most other cases, the diseases were identified by the respondents themselves. Hence, a higher proportion in states like Kerala could be due to better access to health facilities resulting in better diagnosis in identification and vice-versa in other states like Uttar Pradesh & Bihar.
The Elderly in India -2021 India provides insights into various other indicators regarding the status & well-being of the elderly in the country, which are not covered in this story. The data in the report provides critical inputs for policymaking and hopefully, the governments would use the information for the same.
Featured Image: Elderly in India – 2021 report