The novel is based on three actual plane crashes that took place in Elizabeth , Blume 's hometown , over the course of 58 days . The first accident occurred on December 15 , 1951 , with the plane crashing into the Elizabeth River . The second crash happened on January 22 , 1952 , and nearly hit the Battin High School for girls . The last crash was on February 11 of the same year and narrowly missed an orphanage
last crash
National Airlines Flight 101
In the Unlikely Event (novel)