Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast , Version 3 , or UCERF3 , is the latest official earthquake rupture forecast ( ERF ) for the state of California , superseding UCERF2 . It provides authoritative estimates of the likelihood and severity of potentially damaging earthquake ruptures in the long - and near-term . Combining this with ground motion models produces estimates of the severity of ground shaking that can be expected during a given period ( seismic hazard ) , and of the threat to the built environment ( seismic risk ) . This information is used to inform engineering design and building codes , planning for disaster , and evaluating whether earthquake insurance premiums are sufficient for the prospective losses . A variety of hazard metrics can be calculated with UCERF3 ; a typical metric is the likelihood of a magnitude M 6.7 earthquake ( the size of the 1994 Northridge earthquake ) in the 30 years ( typical life of a mortgage ) since 2014
1994 Northridge earthquake
1994 Northridge earthquake
UCERF3