Although the long term slip rate of the constituent faults that make up the Sierra Madre Fault Zone are not precisely known , several studies have put forth scenarios for possible future activity . Two independent reports suggested that if the complete ( ) fault system were to rupture , it could result in a 7.7 shock similar to the 1952 Kern County earthquake . One researcher stated that the recurrence interval for such an event would be greater than 5,000 years . Another proposal was for one of the seven individual segments to rupture in a M6 .4 – 6.6 event , comparable with the 1971 San Fernando earthquake . The recurrence interval for this type of event was placed at 200 years
1952 Kern County earthquake
1952 Kern County earthquake
1991 Sierra Madre earthquake