Some of Moran ’s earliest work as an economist was as a desk officer on the State Department ’s foreign policy planning staff for President Carter ’s administration . During this time , Moran advocated for an approach to Iranian foreign policy that countered the beliefs of senior State Department officials and presidential advisors ( including Zbigniew Brzezinski ) , but would prove prescient after the proceedings of the Iranian Revolution . In a memo dated Nov. 2 , 1977 Moran predicted the upheaval of Shah of Iran , Mohammad Reza Pahlavi , due mismanagement of domestic spending that favored large military spending drawn from public funds . In this memo he stated Iran “ will face rising social and economic tensions unless it reorients government spending " and have “ insufficient financial resources to head off mounting political dissatisfaction , including discontent among those groups that have traditionally been the bedrock of support for the monarchy . ” " ... We both have a common interest in moderating and modulating the Iranian military buildup , not because this administration wants to yield to congressmen who do not like the shah , not because the United States is unable to trust Iran with our most sophisticated weapons but because we have a national interest in insuring the stable and robust evolution of a strong and dependable ally . " " We do not want to simply deny the shah particular pieces of military equipment ( and have him feel hurt , or turn elsewhere ) . Rather we want him to slow down and stretch out the buildup of his military forces to give him more time and more resources to build a cohesive , prosperous ( and non-repressive ) domestic base for his defense effort . " Despite wide circulation of this memo and extensive effort to elevate Moran ’s analysis to those who could affect policy change , the United States continued along a path that favored appeasing Iranian weapons purchases to secure American military interests in the region . Over the following year , protests of the Shah ’s regime grew more fervent , culminating in the massacre of protestors on Sep. 8 , 1978 , now known as Black Friday , and widely considered the tipping point in the Iranian Revolution
Black Friday
Black Friday (1978)
Theodore Moran