The '' complicated '' domain consists of the " known unknowns " . The relationship between cause and effect requires analysis or expertise ; there are a range of right answers . The framework recommends " sense – analyze – respond " : assess the facts , analyze , and apply the appropriate good operating practice . According to Stewart : " Here it is possible to work rationally toward a decision , but doing so requires refined judgment and expertise . ... This is the province of engineers , surgeons , intelligence analysts , lawyers , and other experts . Artificial intelligence copes well here : Deep Blue plays chess as if it were a complicated problem , looking at every possible sequence of moves . " The '' complex '' domain represents the " unknown unknowns " . Cause and effect can only be deduced in retrospect , and there are no right answers . " Instructive patterns ... can emerge , " write Snowden and Boone , " if the leader conducts experiments that are safe to fail . " Cynefin calls this process " probe – sense – respond " . Hard insurance cases are one example . " Hard cases ... need human underwriters , " Stewart writes , " and the best all do the same thing : Dump the file and spread out the contents . " Stewart identifies battlefields , markets , ecosystems and corporate cultures as complex systems that are " impervious to a reductionist , take-it-apart-and-see-how-it-works approach , because your very actions change the situation in unpredictable ways . " In the '' chaotic '' domain , cause and effect are unclear . Events in this domain are " too confusing to wait for a knowledge-based response " , writes Patrick Lambe . " Action — '' any '' action — is the first and only way to respond appropriately . " In this context , managers " act – sense – respond " : '' act '' to establish order ; '' sense '' where stability lies ; '' respond '' to turn the chaotic into the complex . Snowden and Boone write : In the chaotic domain , a leader ’s immediate job is not to discover patterns but to staunch the bleeding . A leader must first act to establish order , then sense where stability is present and from where it is absent , and then respond by working to transform the situation from chaos to complexity , where the identification of emerging patterns can both help prevent future crises and discern new opportunities . Communication of the most direct top-down or broadcast kind is imperative ; there ’s simply no time to ask for input . The September 11 attacks were an example of the '' chaotic '' category . Stewart offers others : " the firefighter whose gut makes him turn left or the trader who instinctively sells when the news about the stock seems too good to be true . " One crisis executive said of the collapse of Enron : " People were afraid . ... Decision-making was paralyzed . ... You 've got to be quick and decisive — make little steps you know will succeed , so you can begin to tell a story that makes sense . " Snowden and Boone give the example of the 1993 Brown 's Chicken massacre in Palatine , Illinois — when robbers murdered seven employees in Brown 's Chicken and Pasta restaurant — as a situation in which local police faced all the domains . Deputy Police Chief Walt Gasior had to act immediately to stem the early panic ( '' chaotic '' ) , while keeping the department running ( '' simple '' ) , calling in experts ( '' complicated '' ) , and maintaining community confidence in the following weeks ( '' complex '' )
Brown 's Chicken massacre
Brown's Chicken massacre
Cynefin framework