The End of the UAE's Regional Project

Since Syria, majority has argued that Iran's Axis and regional project have experienced a major setback. However, it was not only Iran losing. Against all odds, the UAE is losing too.

The UAE has built its regional project post arab spring on two pillars and both are failing. The first is demonising the political alternative to the UAE monarchy which is political Islam. The UAE has worked tirelessly to suppress the potential for islamic parties to win elections and govern. It succeeded in the past few years, but it is running out of steam.

Syria, Libya, Sudan, Yemen, Gaza are places where they UAE intervened and is losing. It also spent so much money trying to bail out SiSi (which they will also lose). Hence, the UAE failed in achieving military supremacy and is losing these places.

Second pillar has been to work to make the UAE an indispensable nation to the West and the East. But the UAE is proving that was a petty maneuver to get the US to make some concessions rather than genuine interest in balanced ties. BRICS countries have to view Saudi and the UAE as American subordinates moving forward and cannot be reliable partners. This will cost the UAE and Saudi dearly in due course.

In short, the UAE spends a lot of money to suppress views like this, but is inevitable that MBZ will ultimately flee the UAE like Assad fleed because both have no political legitimacy or project, have gained BRICS animosity, and failed in securing US protection.

Geopolitics is fun.