I see a lot of praise to the short range models for this weekend, especially the NAM, and perhaps for the Carolinas they were better, but the reality is that these models were TERRIBLE at overdoing the warm nose in East Tennessee. These models had temperatures getting up close to 40° or better in the foothills during the event and just about all of us stayed near or below freezing the entire day with only a little sleet and freezing rain south and east. Snow accumulated 2-5 locally 6” over pretty much the entire eastern third of Tennessee. If it weren’t for downsloping winds we would have probably had more in spots. The dry air was something the models somewhat picked up on, but the warm nose was overdone, a lot. If anything, the RGEM, GFS, and Euro did better at that, though the GFS overdid moisture a bit.