to recap:

- economy is really strong (healthy labor market)

- macro environment kind of got whipsawed since December. fed signaling much more hawkish - read through from jobs data wiped the slate clean to zero cuts this year

- california wildfires (prayers for everyone) - this will be inflationary? have to print to help the recovery would think

- today rate curve started to uninvert - SOFR (a front end rate) back below the 10yr UST (the zero iq way to think about rates is that the front end is largely controlled by the fed and fed expectations, and the longer end is largely controlled by expectations of growth - sofr coming back down is a first step towards more normal shape of the curve in a bit - a potential positive because means we may have found that max hawkish pricing level in the market, and rates markets are calming down again

- non macro-wise, first crypto supportive president steps into office soon, while the economy is still red hot

- yet to be seen if / how / what kind of shock agi brings to the labor marekt but i dont think  that would be a this year story anyways (do we start to see cracks in the labor market and then the fed is much quicker to cut rates to help support early? could maybe see that)

tldr im not a huge macro guy, and i can see the case why people are short-term bearish. but to me sofr back below the 10yr UST is a signal the market has almost found its "peak hawkish" point on fed expectations potentially. plus economy is strong, trump pro-crypto, soon to be out of this pre-inauguration chaotic period, market has already wiped the slate clean on fed expectations to zero - hard to see how people aren't bullish on a medium-to-longer term scale

Feels like a vibe shift soonish imo

any macro guys or smarter people than myself lmk if im way off base here - will be the first to say im not the smartest in this arena by any means (many typos i never proofread before firing)