NFL Wild Card Player Prop #9

Marvin Mims Jr. Longest Reception Over 18.5 Yards (-120 FanDuel)

Mims has been a wagon for us down the stretch, and I'm going back to him again tomorrow. His standard receiving yardage prop is a touch inflated for me, but I like the value in this longest reception play.

The Broncos have found a significant role for Mims, with the second-most designed targets in the NFL since Week 11. He runs 18.3% of his routes out of the backfield and 38.7% from the slot. Since Week 11, he has had an insane 43% target per route run rate and 7.64 YPRR out of the backfield or slot per @FantasyPtsData.

Mims is still just a part-time player, which has me a bit wary here, but the Broncos will need his explosiveness in a projected role as underdogs against a vulnerable Bills defense. Since Week 11, the Bills are 29th in EPA/DB, 26th in dropback success rate, and allowing the 5th most YPA (7.60).

Mims has cleared this line in six of his last seven games, posting a catch of 32+ yards in all those hits. Sean Payton should have some tricks up his sleeve in a do-or-die playoff game to get Mims in space, and he's a lethal threat after the catch, leading the NFL with an insane 12.3 yards after catch per reception.

Shout out to my guy @ffdataroma for the data assist. Check out his awesome in-depth playoff breakdowns for all the games this weekend.

Chart via @propsdotcash 
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