Prediction or Reality Check: 

98% of current AI agent projects launched on token launchpads will die in next 6 months — most will be wiped out in an upcoming crash. 

Few fundamental infra/platforms/utility agents and sentient memes with strong memetics will survive and this sector is going to $100B+ by end of 2025.

Why 98% of current projects will fail?

— Most launchpad tokens have healthy tokenomics for community (fully circulating); but very poor token incentives for team/treasury. Most are cabal-shilled with low quality holders who ape’d with 0 research — they will fizzle out in a FUD moment. We can already see a glimpse of this in recent drawdown.

(Projects with high builders concentration community will win — watch out for them)

— When prices are down, teams won’t get quick dopamine hit and will abandon their projects — remember these builders haven’t sold their tokens due to fear of degens blaming them for “Dev selling” — which means most of these project have very less runway. 

This will lead to a slew of Zombie tokens; slow rugged by devs while cabals keep shilling as “awesome tech”.

And teams which sell (or rugged) don’t have incentive to continue building. Vesting schedules exist for a reason.

— Most Agent frameworks (so called L1s) still don’t have a moat compared to their web2 counterparts apart from token flywheel. Ask any real AI engineers and they will say frameworks are good only for starters and demos — they aren’t scalable in production. 

And guess what? We still don’t scalable production-level agents in crypto yet — so there is no true framework PMF.

Few top frameworks will definitely grow, but most will die — particularly which doesn’t produce some viral agents.

I’m still bullish on frameworks/platforms compared to any other sector though. I just think they should be learning towards more on-chain integrations to build real moat, compared to web2 ones.

(All Crypto x AI KOLs will be telling you bs narratives and shill random lists — believe me, everyone is insanely bag-biased. Just think logically and do basic research — simply check if you can use the product or not. If not and just random demos or whitepaper, high likely, it’s a scam waiting to be unfolded)

— Vanilla Agent Launchpads as value accrual is a poor play for framework imo; no-code agents won’t work just because they’ll be commoditised (eg. spam twitter reply agents) — most good agents will be custom developed and will require efforts. 

Even the current one like Virtuals are more of token launchpads than agent launchpads with good tokenomics.

Further, once you release your launchpad — as a framework you loose some sort of credible neutrality. 

— Projects should strive towards building for utility and developing real moats rather than building just another launchpad or agent engine for forced token value accrual. 

That being said — this is true for any industry — typical darwin and survival of the fittest. I’m just pointing out why most Crypto x AI projects will die eventually, just due to current capital formation structure.

Let’s try to fix all these. It’s just 3 months of this industry and the level of experimentation is insane and that’s why I am optimistic overall — can’t wait to see what happens in the next 6 months!

It’s agentic apps szn.