All the CT “analysts” assigning a 25% or 75% probability that BTC has already topped this cycle either don’t understand how Bitcoin mining works or are simply here to FUD your bags.

Bitcoin operates in clear bull and bear cycles, and mining economics is a central driver of this. During bear markets, miners get flushed out and barely survive, making little to no profit in dollar terms. Bear markets are about survival and consolidation. This sets the stage for the next bull run.

While there’s euphoria on CT about BTC breaking 100K, note that in the mining space, retail interest is still nowhere to be found. There’s no frenzy, no degens mortgaging their houses to buy miners..it’s still a ghost town. Historically, as BTC becomes more valuable and prices soar, degens who did not buy blood on the street in the prior bear turn to mining as a way to gain exposure to the rising BTC price, this is usually a coping mechanism for missing out on accumulating phase.

Let’s talk numbers: the inflation adjusted price of BTC from the previous cycle high (2021’s ~$67,000) is approximately $78,000. At this years price peak of $106,000, we’ve only seen a mere 36% increase from the prior cycle high. Compare this to past cycles, where BTC doesn’t just surpass old highs..it enters a parabolic phase of euphoria, pulling in plethora of new participants who then often become bag hodlers in subsequent cycles.

If you’re panicking and think BTC has already topped, let me be clear: this cycle is far from over. My conservative estimate using miner math is that BTC will top well over $200K this cycle, my estimate is closer to $250K (but with a ~20% margin of error I lay out my 200K number). Also, pls don’t ask how I got this number.

I’m okay with being proven wrong, but I’d rather lay out my thesis, time stamp it now for those panicking or being influenced by CT “influencers” spreading FUD.

If you have any faith in BTC and how Satoshi programmed it.. just sit back, relax, and watch the casino unfold over the next six months.

n/fa || Repost of article I wrote 3 days ago 

-SpaceMoon