Have felt like i've had a pretty good grasp on the Crypto ecosystem the past few years, but more recently I'm getting the feeling I'm falling behind. 

Maybe it's because of an overfocus on the short term - Memecoins and AI agents have been profitable, but hard to truly believe in on a time horizon longer than a few weeks. 

I'm also cautious that narratives that have worked very well in the past are unlikely to work as we progress through the cycles. Will the L1 trade continue to work indefinitely? I'm not sure. A wider dispersion of returns feels far more likely. 

Part of my edge historically was having a strong mental model of who the good, honest and long term thinking actors in the space are, making it easy to find signal in a sea of grift. 

But as a new industry (AI) enters the scene and likely becomes increasingly more prominent I have no idea who is legit. I feel new again. That's partly exciting. But partly terrifying. Because my edge is dissipating. 

When I watch AI videos on youtube, I have no idea if I'm listening to a Cobie or a Moon Carl, a GCR or a Mario Nawfal, a Degen Spartan or a Bitboy. 

Are these people trying to help? Or are they trying to dump on me. Are they exaggerating to grow their brand, or being intellectually dishonest? I simply don't know. My radar is off. 
 
So the plan for me over the next few weeks is just reading as much as I can in this area. Talking to as many experts as will reply to me and generally doing some deep thinking here to try and plan a little bit longer term  than I have been recently. 

Because Crypto isn't going away, AI is only going to get better and the intersection between the two is only going to grow. You won't be able to yolo long trash and get away with it forever. 

At some point the real stuff arrives and I want to be in a position to tell the difference.