My MVP pick in Lamar comes into this one with a lot of momentum while Steelers couldn’t be more of an opposite situation One of my big keys for this game is the matchup between the Ravens defense vs Russ. This defense has improved tremendously since moving Kyle Hamilton to more of a deep safety. This has solidified their pass defense which has allowed other players to settle into their positions. Ravens rank first in both EPA per play against the pass and defensive pass success rate. That’s a huge jump from where they were prior — 28th in EPA. While the Ravens pass rush isn’t putting up #s like Denver they still do quite a good job getting to the QB, no one knows the new Russ quite like me, I see Russ getting sacked 5+ times tonight, possibly fumble on one.

Moving on to when Baltimore has the ball, with Zay out we will see a more featured Henry game while sustaining some long drives. I envision Likely to get some increased targets as he was on the field for 73% of drop backs after Zay injury. I have been impressed with Monken’s play calling most of the season and you can tell he’s mastered using different personnel to create mismatches which is what we will see tonight.
I anticipate the Ravens will march down the field with long scoring drives eating a lot of clock, whole Pittsburgh’s offense will continue to hit roadblocks when trying to reach end zone. Given this, I am taking the under at 45.5. Even though I believe Baltimore will outperform, I am hesitant take eat the 10 pts in a fierce rivalry