I believe it’s unlikely, especially within the next week or two.  However, if Bitcoin decides to run to new highs, anything is possible.

I’ll add that I’m a self taught amateur, and I say that neither to self deprecate or to brag but to explain how I typically think.  For the past 15 years I’ve solved technical problems others couldn’t by thinking differently than the herd and differently from the experts.  I try to recalibrate my errors and fine tune my approach.  As far as markets are concerned, it’s just the various logical paths pointing to each probabilistic outcome.  So to be more specific, I don’t disagree with Josh’s logic, I’m just saying that my head says this isn’t very likely to be the way the future plays out, at least not surrounding Jan 16th.  But, having said all of that, I am still well positioned to benefit from a rise.

My covered calls aren’t “betting MSTR goes down”, they’re designed to increase my cash position while still allowing for a lot of upside on my leaps with the ability to roll them up and out for more premium and long call appreciation potential.  I don’t want to influence people’s decisions one way or the other.  I want to encourage everyone to create their own mental model for this sort of stuff.   

I’m currently retired no matter what happens.  Hope isn’t something I need.  Many people betting on QQQ or Jan 17th do so because they want to hit a home run and be closer to retirement.  As discussed in Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, it’s a bad idea to try to place a bet in the market so that the market can pay for something you want.  Hopeful bets don’t have a great track record.  Thanks @hoose_house for recommending the book.  My buying MSTR leaps at the low in December 2022 wasn’t a “hope bet”, it was a calculated, very high conviction bet.  It was going against the heard and looking where most others weren’t.  My selling covered calls when we were around $500 to lock in $6 mil was similar.

I get that lots of people are looking for answers like someone watching the weather channel anxious about what may happen next.  If you want an edge in the market, following others into trades is a shitty plan and not a long term solution.  Learn from others and absorb the best of each of their perspectives, but think for yourself.

Also, 2025 is very cloudy to me as far as time frame and I’ve been saying this for a while.  We could peak early 2025 or mid or late this year.  After is possible too.  The markets are my favorite game and it’s helped me to view it as a game and not stress about the money.  I’m just as excited as others are to see how it all plays out.