Case study on reasoning: I just asked myself, 'Why don't we create zero-calorie food if we can fake taste with, e.g. artificial sweeteners?' More relevant than the answer is the chain of thought that led me to ask a question which would meaningfully improve my world model/knowledge. I spent two hours figuring out the exact steps and reasons behind my maybe five(?)-minute-long thought process:
I measured my weight and noticed that I had again lost weight. Based on that observation, I formed hypothesis H1: 'Weight loss is easy with the right aids.' To evaluate this hypothesis, I thought about multiple people who are trying hard to lose weight, having tested many aids, but having had little success.
My hypothesis H1 predicted that if people try hard to lose weight, the outcome is 'they easily lose weight.'
However, my observation O1 is 'they barely lose weight.'
Making very poor predictions for multiple cases means that either some of my information is incorrect (e.g., H1) or I lack information.
If I dismiss H1, I have to find another hypothesis that predicts my weight loss.
The other option is to propose new information which, combined with H1, predicts the observations. Candidates for this information: H1.a: 'I have a different metabolism that, together with the limited effect of weight loss aids, causes me to lose weight' H1.b: 'People haven't tested a combination of different weight loss aids'
I assume that because I don't have observations that would let me evaluate H1.a, I went on to evaluate H1.b.
If H1.b is supposed to explain my observation O1 while H1 is correct, there needs to be a set of weight loss aids that people in O1 haven't tried and that is also way more effective.
H1.b being true predicts that there is such a set of weight loss aids.
To achieve the task of constructing such a set, I first created a list of weight loss aids I know about:
- Lisdexamphetamine
- Fiber material that expands in the stomach
- Restricting the stomach size
- Non-nutritional material (saw a woman on TV who's addicted to eating mattresses)
One possible set of extremely effective weight loss aids contains just one element. One possible set is H1.b.i: 'Eating non-nutritional material decreases calorie intake by 100%.'
What do I expect to observe if H1.b.i is true? Given that I know the food industry is extremely good at creating artificial tastes and textures, I would expect there to be a wide range of food that has actually zero calories since there is a lot of demand for weight loss products.

However, my observations O2 are that there are actually no zero-calorie products and that even the low-calorie products barely have fewer calories than the standard products. Some information in my world model is incorrect or missing, which led me to my question:
'Why don't we create zero-calorie food if we can fake taste with, e.g. artificial sweeteners?'"