GSD Friday Recap

AU: $2620 ($2622 - Last Week Spot)
AG: $29.36 (29.48)
HUI: 278 (280)
DXY: 108 (108)
S&P: 5970 (5866)
10-Yr: 4.6% (4.5%)
Oil: $70 (69)

This was a quiet week for gold/silver/miners. All three were basically flat for the week. The S&P had its Xmas rally and was up 100 points to 5970, and is currently up 26% on the year with 2 trading days left. The dollar remained at 108, which is an elevated level, and the 10-Yr closed the week near a yearly high at 4.6%. Both the DXY and 10-Yr present problems for the stock market heading into January if they trend any higher. We can expect a potential 5% sell-off in January as large funds sell their big overweight winners and rotate into other assets. Where will they rotate is the big question.

If you didn't read my 2024 Year In Review / 2025 Look Forward article that I posted onthen check that out. You don't have to join Substack to read it. Just search by my name. My expectation for 2025 is a recession that will cause all sorts of fall out. I expect a 10% correction in the S&P 500 in the first half of the year, but I don't know if that will be the onset of the recession or not. Stay tuned.

There are a lot of uncertainties heading into 2025. 1) How high will the S&P go? My guess is 6200 to 6400, although if January gets off to a bad start, then the current ATH of 6099 might hold. 2) What will be the 2025 lows for gold/silver/HUI? My guess is $2350 to $2450, $26 to $27, and 240 to 260. 3) What will the dollar (DXY) do? I think it is close to peaking, and by year-end, I expect the dollar to crash to sub 95 (as a result of the recession). 4) What will the 10-Yr do? I expect a roller-coaster. First, up a bit to perhaps 4.75%, then down to 3.8% (when the recession hits), and finally back up to 4.5% at year-end (and heading higher in 2026).

Some of you are wondering how high will gold go in 2025. I'm expecting $3200 to $3400. You can put a 60 GSR on that range to get $55 silver. These gold/silver prices will only happen if we get a severe recession and resumption of the fear trade into gold. So, the most important data point by far is the S&P 500, which will dictate what gold/silver/miners will do in 2025.