Three observations 
1. If Ukraine Russia reaches a ceasefire agreement it will come with relief on US sanctions 

2. Most shale acreage is with US large cap producers and the breakeven + capital cycle is shorter for shale oil projects relative to large offshore production for new projects, so there could be significant uptick in US oil production with Drill Baby Drill in place and insatiable gas demand for power for AI data centres 

3. Last but not least, GS has been guilty in past of accentuating oil price peaks near the top few times

Oil could reach 85$ on fear but to hold it there is a challenge and in market share wars OPEC might enable volume wars as when low oil prices in place, one with more capacity to sell might sell more for additional revenues 

The biggest risk on oil prices for the higher side is If Israel takes a preemptive action on Iran nuclear facilities 

Reality is more complex and have more variables than discussed in summary and headline of this note